{"_meta":{"builtAt":"2026-10-09T14:11:49Z","count":597,"hash":"85db9b939d21","engine":"js/engine.js"},"rows":{"1093":{"name":"CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited","subtitle":"Top-3 Chinese pharma (with Hengrui + Sino Bio); Shijiazhuang HQ | FY25 RMB 28.0B (+10%) | Innovative pipeline Ph3 transitioning + neuro/cardio franchise","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":11850,"netCashLocal":16500,"cashPS":1.3924,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.82,"bear":6.12,"base":14.68,"bull":21.65,"psychedelic_bull":35.15},"weightedTP":14.22,"meta":{"areas":["cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","cns","cns.cerebrovascular","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","oncology","oncology.supportive_care","oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","_established_products.cspc_heritage","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.pleiotropic.phthalide","small_molecule","small_molecule.pleiotropic","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.gcsf_pegylated","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.liposomal_anthracycline","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.paclitaxel_albumin","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.egfr","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.cspc_heritage","purity":130},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":6},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":5},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.cspc_heritage","purity":138},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":7},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":6},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.cspc_heritage","purity":114},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":54},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":6,"totalTAM":92.1045,"totalWTD":86.764935},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 26 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-26","asset":"sys6010","indication":"egfr_nsclc","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-26: SYNSTAR-01 Ph3 (SYS6010 mono vs platinum chemo, EGFR-TKI-resistant EGFRm NSCLC, China) MET PFS primary endpoint; NDA timing not yet guided","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.cspc.com.cn/en/news","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.cspc.com.hk/en/ir/announcements.php","failTP":14.2141293,"successTP":14.217355,"baseTP":14.2185895,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"nbp","indication":"stroke_neuroprotection","title":"NBP butylphthalide patent cliff / generic entry timing in China + ex-China expansion update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.cspc.com.cn/en/news","_confidence":"medium","failTP":14.2185895,"successTP":14.2185895,"baseTP":14.2185895,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"sys6010","indication":"egfr_nsclc","title":"SYS6010 China NDA submission/acceptance for 2L EGFR-TKI-resistant NSCLC (post SYNSTAR-01 PFS hit)","type":"nda_submission","binary":true,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.cspc.com.hk/en/ir/announcements.php","_confidence":"medium","failTP":14.2161179,"successTP":14.2211067,"baseTP":14.2185895,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4175,"lenses":{"comparable":11.15,"eeRel":1.5385,"peRel":1.8397},"readouts":[{"a":"sys6010","ind":"egfr_nsclc","ds":"2026-08-26","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":20.6578861,"lo":3.24857398,"hi":37.7696437,"pBeatBest":0.2515,"bestDrug":"datopotamab deruxtecan","bestValue":26.4}]},"1099":{"name":"Sinopharm Group Co Ltd","subtitle":"China's #1 pharma distributor (RMB 575B FY25, -1.6%); SOE under Sinopharm Holding | Distribution 73% (~RMB 419B) + Medical Devices 19% (~RMB 111B) + Retail Guoda 6%","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":3120,"netCashLocal":-127000,"cashPS":-40.7051,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":14.58,"bull":42.23,"psychedelic_bull":79.09},"weightedTP":21.8,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.distribution.china_wholesale","_diversified","_diversified.distribution","_diversified.distribution.china_pharmacy","_diversified.devices.medical_devices","_diversified.devices"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sino_distribution","indication":"sino_dist_div","title":"Sinopharm FY26 distribution + Guoda retail growth + VBP margin","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Sinopharm FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":21.8028846,"successTP":21.8028846,"baseTP":21.8028846,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":77210,"lenses":{"comparable":621.32,"peRel":0.5983}},"1177":{"name":"Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited","subtitle":"Top-3 Chinese pharma, rebranded SBP Group Aug'26 | H1'26 revenue RMB19.44B (+10.6%), adj. net profit RMB3.34B (+92.3%) | 4 out-licensing deals >$1B upfront / >$7B potential | TQB3909 BCL-2 NDA filed","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":18800,"netCashLocal":22000,"cashPS":1.1702,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.87,"bear":5.42,"base":7.76,"bull":11.45,"psychedelic_bull":19.27},"weightedTP":8.28,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.sarcoma.sts","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","oncology.endocrine","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","_established_products.sino_biopharm_heritage","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.multi_tki","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pdl1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.cdk46_inhibitor","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.bcl2","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_ctla4","biologic.antibody.bispecific","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.sino_biopharm_heritage","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.sino_biopharm_heritage","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.sino_biopharm_heritage","purity":132},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":8,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":18,"totalTAM":124.07174,"totalWTD":105.189469},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"tqb3909","indication":"cll_aml","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED Jul-2026 -- TQB3909 (BCL-2, Chia Tai Tianqing) China NDA ACCEPTED by CDE for relapsed/refractory CLL/SLL and granted PRIORITY REVIEW (Jul 2026); AML indication still in Ph3","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Sino Biopharmaceutical / CTTQ announcement + CDE acceptance, Jul-Aug 2026","_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.21521921,"successTP":8.31088134,"baseTP":8.28358848,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"anlotinib","indication":"nsclc","title":"Anlotinib ex-China filings progress (US/EU FDA/EMA submission preparation)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sinobiopharm.com/en/news","_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.28358848,"successTP":8.28358848,"baseTP":8.28358848,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-01-31","asset":"tqb3909","indication":"cll_aml","title":"TQB3909 (BCL-2) NMPA approval decision, R/R CLL/SLL (priority review granted Jul 13 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.20452968,"successTP":8.25125357,"baseTP":8.28358848,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3450,"lenses":{"comparable":7.18,"eeRel":1.4433,"peRel":0.6342}},"1349":{"name":"Shanghai Fudan-Zhangjiang Bio-Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China photodynamic + liposome: ALA aminolevulinic acid + hemoporfin FuMeiDa port wine stain + LIBOd doxo-liposome; FY25 rev RMB 686M (-3.3%) NL RMB 157M; MCap HK$3.2B","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":1040,"netCashLocal":800,"cashPS":0.7692,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.75,"bear":2.24,"base":2.73,"bull":3.53,"psychedelic_bull":4.21},"weightedTP":2.62,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.photodynamic_liposome","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":2,"totalWTD":2},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"fudan_pdt","indication":"fudan_franchise","title":"Fudan-Zhangjiang FY 2026 ALA new indication launches + return to profit","type":"milestone","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/fudan-zhangjiang-warns-of-2025-loss-as-revenue-slips-and-assets-decline","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.19955769,"successTP":3.23850876,"baseTP":2.6150407,"swingPct":12,"successMove":7,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":96,"lenses":{"comparable":2.9}},"1530":{"name":"3SBio Inc.","subtitle":"Chinese biopharma; TPIAO thrombocytopenia leader + EPIAO declining + Yisaipu etanercept biosim + Mandi minoxidil | FY25 RMB 17.7B reported (RMB 9.4B Pfizer SSGJ-707 upfront); product sales RMB...","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":2540,"netCashLocal":18000,"cashPS":7.0866,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.07,"bear":13.34,"base":16.62,"bull":21.84,"psychedelic_bull":33.01},"weightedTP":17.97,"meta":{"areas":["hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","hematology.marrow_failure","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.tpo","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.epo","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.tnf_receptor","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","_diversified.branded.china_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_vegf","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":40},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":39},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":26},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":91},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":46},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":30},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":15},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":15},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":21,"rarePurityWtd":25,"optionality":17,"totalTAM":79.898,"totalWTD":68.35455},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026 (ASCO)","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"ssgj_707","indication":"ssgj707_nsclc","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-01: SSGJ-707 ASCO 2026 update -- Ph2 monotherapy/combo NSCLC data only (ORR up to 81% 1L combo; AACR 2026 62%/55% ORR by dose). Pfizer-led Ph3 vs Keytruda+chemo still enrolling, no Ph3 efficacy yet -> assumptions held (base 75/85 between fail 40/60 and success 85/92)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Pfizer-3SBio collab","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"ASCO 2026 (Jun 1-5): Pfizer presented updated Ph2 monotherapy data for PF-08634404 (SSGJ-707) in 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC; positive but soft data-update, not the binary Ph3 NSCLC readout (Ph3 still enrolling). Assumptions left unchanged. Source: pfizer.com ASCO 2026 oncology press release.","failTP":17.3952738,"successTP":18.2764635,"baseTP":17.9734602,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ssgj_707","indication":"ssgj707_nsclc","title":"SSGJ-707 China filings + Pfizer Ph3 ramp + milestones","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"3SBio FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":17.5087463,"successTP":18.304508,"baseTP":17.9734602,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":1150,"lenses":{"comparable":25.99,"eeRel":5.4,"peRel":5.4387},"readouts":[{"a":"ssgj_707","ind":"ssgj707_nsclc","ds":"2026-06-01","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":8.05653466,"lo":2.99655682,"hi":12.9847938,"pBeatBest":0.19425,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"1672":{"name":"Ascletis Pharma","subtitle":"China oral GLP-1 specialist: ASC30 oral GLP-1R global Ph3 obesity DOSING from Aug 30 2026 (Ph2 13wk +7.7% pbo-adj, better GI tolerability); SC depot Ph2 24wk positive Mar'26, depot Ph3 pending","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":1120,"netCashLocal":2500,"cashPS":2.2321,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.36,"bear":7.13,"base":18.12,"bull":27.65,"psychedelic_bull":39.25},"weightedTP":18.74,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.glp1_oral","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.glp1_depot"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":97,"totalTAM":288,"totalWTD":146.016},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-30","asset":"asc30_oral","indication":"asc30_obesity","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-30 (success): ASC30 oral GLP-1R global Phase III obesity programme -- FIRST PARTICIPANT DOSED, ~4 months ahead of the FY2026 guided start. SC depot Ph3 initiation still pending (tracked separately).","type":"phase3_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Ascletis company PR 2026-08-30 (PR Newswire)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Company PR (PR Newswire, 2026-08-30) confirms first participant dosed in the global Ph3 programme for once-daily oral ASC30 in chronic weight management. Oral half of the catalyst met in full; asc30_oral obesity pos/apr moved to the pre-declared success values (78/85 base). Depot half not met -- rolled to a separate catalyst.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ascletis-announces-first-participant-dosed-in-a-global-phase-iii-clinical-program-of-once-daily-oral-small-molecule-glp-1-receptor-agonist-asc30-for-chronic-weight-management-302864376.html","failTP":6.97426408,"successTP":25.7001041,"baseTP":18.7427436,"swingPct":30,"successMove":11,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"Q3 2026 (by Sep 30)","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"asc30_oral","indication":"asc30_obesity","title":"ASC30 oral GLP-1R agonist Phase 2 diabetes 13-week readout (not yet reported as of 2026-09-22; guided Q3 2026, Apr 26 2026 PR; rolled from 2026-09-15)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":47,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ascletis-completes-enrollment-in-us-phase-ii-study-of-asc30-an-oral-small-molecule-glp-1r-agonist-for-the-treatment-of-diabetes-302753633.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Phase 2 diabetes study enrollment completed April 2026, topline readout expected Q3 2026 per multiple company announcements","failTP":7.34401159,"successTP":26.7869226,"baseTP":18.7427436,"swingPct":104,"successMove":43,"failMove":-61,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":58},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"asc30_depot","indication":"asc30_depot_obesity","title":"ASC30 subcutaneous depot Phase 3 obesity initiation (split out of the FY2026 dual-start catalyst; oral half resolved Aug 30 2026, depot start not yet announced)","type":"phase3_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":82,"_source":"curated -- split from the FY2026 combined Ph3-initiation catalyst on 2026-08-31 freshness review","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ascletis-announces-first-participant-dosed-in-a-global-phase-iii-clinical-program-of-once-daily-oral-small-molecule-glp-1-receptor-agonist-asc30-for-chronic-weight-management-302864376.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.0982869,"successTP":24.9486068,"baseTP":18.7427436,"swingPct":22,"successMove":10,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":54,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":15.88},"readouts":[{"a":"asc30_oral","ind":"asc30_obesity","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1569265,"lo":2.98801415,"hi":29.1981513,"pBeatBest":0.12315,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"1795":{"name":"Lotus Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Top-20 specialty pharma post Alvogen-US (Dec 2025, EV ~$2B) | Voclosporin FTF + Nintedanib + Midostaurin | FY25 NT$20.5B (+10%, EPS NT$18.14)","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.TW","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":261.75,"netCashLocal":7740,"cashPS":29.5702,"tps":{"mega_bear":95.41,"bear":162.08,"base":307.94,"bull":479.52,"psychedelic_bull":743.61},"weightedTP":340.11,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.oncology_generics","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.us_specialty","_diversified.branded.apac_specialty"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"lotus_us_specialty","indication":"us_specialty_div","title":"REPORTED: COMPLETED: Alvogen US integration milestones (pro forma rev / EBITDA doubling)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Alvogen US acquisition closed Dec 2025; Q1 2026 (reported May 2026) consolidated net sales +83% YoY to NT$8,644M, US revenue +156% YoY to NT$4,926M driven by Alvogen consolidation. Pro forma rev/EBITDA doubling on track; profitability temporarily pressured by integration finance costs + USD FX.","_source":"https://www.lotuspharm.com/en/newsroom/news-page/322","_confidence":"high","failTP":340.113054,"successTP":340.113054,"baseTP":340.113054,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"lotus_us_specialty","indication":"us_specialty_div","title":"Voclosporin (generic Lupkynis) FTF ANDA approval + 180-day exclusivity (acceptance Feb'25; approval H2'26 expected)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://www.lotuspharm.com/newsroom/lotus-announces-fda-acceptance-of-potential-first-","_confidence":"high","failTP":340.113054,"successTP":340.113054,"baseTP":340.113054,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":930,"lenses":{"comparable":409.61,"peRel":1.187}},"1801":{"name":"Innovent Biologics, Inc.","subtitle":"Chinese antibody biotech (Suzhou) | FY25 RMB 13.0B (+38%) | Tyvyt (sintilimab; Eli Lilly partnership) + mazdutide NMPA-approved (obesity Jun'25 + T2D Sep'25) + Type 2 inflammation pipeline","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1716,"netCashLocal":26260,"cashPS":15.303,"tps":{"mega_bear":34.84,"bear":49.97,"base":77.87,"bull":124.4,"psychedelic_bull":208.38},"weightedTP":84.75,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","oncology.gi.esophageal","oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","oncology.lymphoma","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric","_established_products.innovent_heritage","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_glucagon_dual","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pcsk9","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_il2","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.cldn18_2","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.antibody.mab.various_biosimilar"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":84},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":46},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":42},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":23},{"area":"_established_products.innovent_heritage","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":85},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":46},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":42},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":23},{"area":"_established_products.innovent_heritage","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":51},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":32},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":20},{"area":"_established_products.innovent_heritage","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1,"totalTAM":344.1429,"totalWTD":339.485404},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025","dateSort":"2025-06-30","asset":"mazdutide","indication":"obesity","title":"REPORTED: Mazdutide DREAMS Ph3 China obesity POSITIVE -> NMPA approval for chronic weight management Jun 2025 (world's first dual GCG/GLP-1); T2D glycemic control approved Sep 2025","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/innovent-announces-mazdutide-first-dual-gcgglp-1-receptor-agonist-received-approval-from-chinas-nmpa-for-chronic-weight-management-302493152.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"DREAMS-1/2 Ph3 read out positive; NMPA approved mazdutide for obesity Jun 2025 + T2D Sep 2025. Config previously modeled as pending Ph3 (stale ~1yr); pos/apr de-risked to 100/100 across scenarios (approved, factual). Peak-revenue spread now carried by pen.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":83.6673239,"successTP":85.1498494,"baseTP":84.7479384,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"ibi363","indication":"io_resistant","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-05, initiated): IBI363/TAK-928 + bevacizumab -- first patient dosed in 3rd pivotal registrational study (late-line advanced CRC, China)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Innovent PR Aug 5-6 2026: first patient dosed in a pivotal registrational study of IBI363 + bevacizumab vs investigator's choice in standard-refractory/intolerant advanced CRC in China -- the third pivotal for IBI363. No pos change: base io_resistant pos is already 85, which prices near-certain registrational progression; this is confirmatory of the encoded view, not incremental.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/innovent-announces-first-patient-dosed-in-pivotal-registrational-study-of-ibi363tak-928-pd-1il-2-biased-bispecific-fusion-protein-in-combination-with-bevacizumab-in-late-line-advanced-colorectal-cancer-in-china-302843683.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":84.6309008,"successTP":84.7071208,"baseTP":84.7479384,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 23, 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-23","asset":"ibi343","indication":"gastric_cldn","title":"IBI343 / arcotatug tavatecan (TAK-921) Ph3 G-HOPE-001 full PFS + OS data -- ESMO 2026 late-breaking abstract (3L+ CLDN18.2+ gastric/GEJ; Japan regulatory path)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/takeda-highlights-late-stage-oncology-pipeline-progress-and-solid-tumor-portfolio-research-led-by-late-breaking-phase-3-arcotatug-tavatecan-tak-921-data-at-esmo-2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":84.741215,"successTP":84.7547195,"baseTP":84.7479384,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":73,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"ibi343","indication":"gastric_cldn","title":"IBI343 China NMPA approval decision, 3L+ CLDN18.2+ gastric/GEJ (NDA accepted Jun 2026 with priority review; would be first CLDN18.2 ADC approved)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/worlds-first-cldn18-2-adc-for-regulatory-review-innovent-biologics-announces-ibi343-arcotatug-tavatecan-met-primary-endpoint-in-international-phase-3-study-in-advanced-refractory-gastric-cancer-and-nda-accepted-by-china-nmpa-302791220.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":84.7390301,"successTP":84.7571436,"baseTP":84.7479384,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ibi363","indication":"io_resistant","title":"IBI363 PD-1/IL-2 bispecific Ph2 readout IO-resistant tumors (first-in-class)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.innoventbio.com/en/investor","_confidence":"medium","failTP":84.6309008,"successTP":84.7071208,"baseTP":84.7479384,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":930,"lenses":{"comparable":40.86,"eeRel":0.1477,"peRel":0.1205},"readouts":[{"a":"mazdutide","ind":"obesity","ds":"2025-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1792353,"lo":3.05479569,"hi":29.158443,"pBeatBest":0.1255,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"ibi363","ind":"io_resistant","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":20.8108684,"lo":3.4516944,"hi":37.8403647,"pBeatBest":0.26545,"bestDrug":"datopotamab deruxtecan","bestValue":26.4}]},"1952":{"name":"Everest Medicines","subtitle":"Everest China commercial: Nefecon IgAN; H1'26 rev RMB1.15B (+157%), 1st non-IFRS profit but -13% on XERAVA supply cut + Nefecon generics; VELSIPITY NRDL + CARDAMYST decisions ~Q3'26","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":351.3,"netCashLocal":2963,"cashPS":8.4344,"tps":{"mega_bear":22.9,"bear":39.94,"base":84.54,"bull":164.71,"psychedelic_bull":248.53},"weightedTP":84.13,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.corticosteroid_budesonide_targeted","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","_diversified.mixed.in_licensed_commercial","_diversified","_diversified.mixed","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.pcsk9_adnectin","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":144},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":72},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":46},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":23},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":140},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":70},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":49},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":25},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":117},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":73},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":37},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":10}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":29.755,"totalWTD":27.663625},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-26","asset":"lerodalcibep","indication":"hyperchol","title":"REPORTED: LEROCHOL (lerodalcibep) China NMPA BLA accepted 2026-06-26 -- hypercholesterolemia (acceptance milestone; approval decision 2027 stays open)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/apac/news-releases/everest-medicines-announces-that-licensing-partner-lib-therapeutics-has-received-us-fda-approval-of-lerochol-lerodalcibep-liga-for-adults-with-elevated-ldl-cholesterol-302644459.html","failTP":60.9425318,"successTP":80.0084904,"baseTP":84.1259406,"swingPct":12,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Aug 19 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-19","asset":"xerava_trodelvy_eiale","indication":"everest_other","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-19: H1 2026 results -- revenue +157% to RMB1.15B, first non-IFRS profit inflection. BUT shares -13%: XERAVA supply disruption (zero inventory, ~RMB150-200M revenue cut) + Nefecon generic entrants + reliance on pending NRDL/regulatory approvals. Near-term regulatory events pending (~Q3'26): VELSIPITY (etrasimod) NRDL negotiation + CARDAMYST (etripamil) approval decision -- NOTE: neither modeled as a config asset yet (coverage gap)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Everest Medicines H1 2026 results (2026-08-19) + earnings call","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Profit inflection positive but XERAVA supply hit + generic pressure drove the selloff. VELSIPITY/CARDAMYST are real ~Q3'26 binaries not yet modeled -- flagged for a coverage add, not silently stamped.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":81.364139,"successTP":86.9722888,"baseTP":84.1259406,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"nefecon","indication":"nefecon_iga","title":"Everest FY 2026 Nefecon scale + Eialé hospital ramp + sustained profitability; LNZ100 (VIZZ) regulatory pathway (NDA submitted Sep 2025, approval Q1 2027 expected)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.eqs-news.com/news/category/everest-medicines-announces-financial-results-for-full-year-ended-december-31-2025/a0ce1ed4-5fd8-48b8-a94a-648bca5a2625","_confidence":"high","failTP":51.8904734,"successTP":131.291006,"baseTP":84.1259406,"swingPct":28,"successMove":17,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"lerodalcibep","indication":"hyperchol","title":"LEROCHOL China NMPA approval decision + launch (hypercholesterolemia)","type":"registration","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":98,"_confidence":"high","failTP":65.5841712,"successTP":94.1310936,"baseTP":84.1259406,"swingPct":10,"successMove":4,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":233,"lenses":{"comparable":208.82}},"2096":{"name":"Simcere Pharmaceutical Group Limited","subtitle":"Chinese diversified pharma -- FY25 RMB 7.7B (+16.5%) / net profit +86% RMB 1.34B; Sanbexin stroke + Endostar onc + ENWEIDA envafolimab + COSELA + Iremod + Simcere Zaiming Merck KGaA JV","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2563.4,"netCashLocal":3560,"cashPS":1.3888,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.58,"bear":12.18,"base":15.77,"bull":22.97,"psychedelic_bull":33.76},"weightedTP":17.03,"meta":{"areas":["cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","cns","cns.cerebrovascular","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.tissue_agnostic.msi_h","oncology.tissue_agnostic","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","oncology.supportive_care","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","_established_products.china_branded","_established_products","_established_products.china_innovation"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.cns_neuroprotection","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.endostatin_antiangiogenic","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.antibody.single_domain.pd_l1_subq","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.single_domain","small_molecule.kinase.cdk46","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.pleiotropic.iguratimod","small_molecule.pleiotropic","small_molecule.antiviral.sars_cov2_3cl","small_molecule.antiviral","_diversified.branded.china_branded","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.unspecified","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":21},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.msi_h","purity":15},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":9},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":7},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":4},{"area":"_established_products.china_branded","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.china_innovation","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":21},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.msi_h","purity":15},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":9},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":7},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":4},{"area":"_established_products.china_branded","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.china_innovation","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":67},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":39},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.msi_h","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":19},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":13},{"area":"_established_products.china_branded","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":9},{"area":"_established_products.china_innovation","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":64.6663,"totalWTD":64.6663},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-03-24","dateSort":"2026-03-24","asset":"diversified","indication":"div_franchise","title":"REPORTED (2026-03-24, completed): Simcere FY25 results -- RMB 7.7B revenue +16.5%; net profit +86% to RMB 1.34B; gross margin 81%; innovative drugs dominant revenue mix","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"Simcere FY25 PR + Mini Chart Mar 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-03-24 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":17.0326763,"successTP":17.0326763,"baseTP":17.0326763,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"simcere_zaiming","indication":"innov_onc","title":"Simcere Zaiming (Merck KGaA JV) -- multiple ADC + bispecific clinical readouts at ASCO/ESMO 2026","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"_source":"Simcere pipeline + Merck KGaA collab","_confidence":"medium","failTP":17.0326763,"successTP":17.0326763,"baseTP":17.0326763,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1180,"lenses":{"comparable":12.96,"eeRel":1.1475,"peRel":1.4361}},"2157":{"name":"Lepu Biopharma","subtitle":"China oncology biotech (Lepu Medical spin-off): MRG003 becotatug vedotin APPROVED China Oct'25 -- world's 1st EGFR-ADC, 3L+ NPC | MRG004A TF-ADC Ph3 | ArriVent licensing $295M","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":1800,"netCashLocal":1200,"cashPS":0.6667,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.62,"bear":0.77,"base":1.04,"bull":1.36,"psychedelic_bull":1.68},"weightedTP":0.99,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.npc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.egfr","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.tissue_factor"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":185},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":93},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":7}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":163},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":18}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":147},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":74},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":26}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":147,"totalTAM":13.2825,"totalWTD":5.38456875},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 2025","dateSort":"2025-10-30","asset":"mrg003_egfr","indication":"mrg003_npc","title":"REPORTED 2025-10-30: MRG003 (becotatug vedotin, MEIYOUHENG) APPROVED by NMPA -- world's first EGFR-targeted ADC, for adult recurrent/metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma after >=2 lines of chemotherapy and PD-(L)1 failure","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":68,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"HKEX announcement 2025-10-30 (Lepu Biopharma); Becotatug Vedotin: First Approval, Drugs (2026)","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1030/2025103001194.pdf","_note":"RESOLVED LATE. The approval landed 30 Oct 2025 and this config was still carrying it as a pending FY2026 NDA decision at the 2026-09-03 freshness review -- roughly ten months stale. Catalyst-authorised resolution: the pre-declared success values were pos 92 / apr 95, but the repo convention for an APPROVED and marketed drug is pos/apr 100/100 (cf. AKESO ivonescimab, AUPH lupkynis, NEU daybue), so 100/100 was applied and the scenario dispersion was moved into pen (0.50/0.75/1.00/1.20/1.40), which is where commercial-uptake risk belongs once binary approval risk is gone.","failTP":0.682862167,"successTP":1.15057272,"baseTP":0.991757096,"swingPct":47,"successMove":16,"failMove":-31,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":39},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"mrg004a_tf","indication":"mrg004a_solid","title":"MRG004A TF-ADC Ph3 enrollment progress update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://news.futunn.com/en/post/55014364/annual-report-observation-lepu-biotech-b-2157-hk-s-commercial","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.891171005,"successTP":1.0915075,"baseTP":0.991757096,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"mrg003_egfr","indication":"mrg003_npc","title":"MRG003 + anti-PD-1 maintenance therapy in R/M NPC (NCT07705243) -- earlier-line label expansion beyond the 3L+ approval","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"clinicaltrials.gov NCT07705243","_sourceUrl":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07705243","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Registered study of becotatug vedotin plus anti-PD-1 as maintenance in R/M NPC; the approved label is 3L+, so this is the earlier-line expansion path. No assumption effect (already 100/100) -- it is the pen/SOM lever that would move.","failTP":0.868447622,"successTP":1.15057272,"baseTP":0.991757096,"swingPct":22,"successMove":13,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.15,"eeRel":0.1191,"peRel":0.8337}},"2162":{"name":"Keymed Biosciences","subtitle":"China biotech: CMG901/AZD0901 CLDN18.2 ADC Ph3 2L+ OS WIN Jul'26 (both co-primaries; AZ-partnered); stapokibart H1'26 RMB393M (+132%); H1'26 group rev RMB617M (+24%)","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":310,"netCashLocal":2500,"cashPS":8.0645,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.47,"bear":17.74,"base":48.42,"bull":95.6,"psychedelic_bull":111.25},"weightedTP":52,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.cldn18_2","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il4ra","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":92},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":92},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":89},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":89},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":72},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":72},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":28}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":63,"totalTAM":15.0279,"totalWTD":9.2267685},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-27","asset":"cmg901_az","indication":"cmg901_gastric","title":"REPORTED (2026-07-27, HIT): CLARITY-Gastric 01 Ph3 MET BOTH co-primary OS endpoints -- sonesitatug vedotin (AZD0901/CMG901) delivered a statistically significant, clinically meaningful OS improvement in 3L+ AND in the overall 2L+ CLDN18.2-positive gastric/GEJ population; first CLDN18.2 ADC ever to show a Ph3 OS benefit. CLARITY-Gastric 2 (1L) enrolling; FDA Fast Track + Orphan Drug, CDE Breakthrough Therapy","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":38,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2026/sone-ve-improved-survival-in-gastric-cancers.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":40.8029417,"successTP":58.5566496,"baseTP":51.9984563,"swingPct":35,"successMove":13,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cmg901_az","indication":"cmg901_gastric","title":"Sonesitatug vedotin (AZD0901) global regulatory submissions + first approvals in 2L+ CLDN18.2+ gastric/GEJ, following the CLARITY-Gastric 01 OS win","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2026/sone-ve-improved-survival-in-gastric-cancers.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":43.1536814,"successTP":59.7974742,"baseTP":51.9984563,"swingPct":16,"successMove":8,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":43,"lenses":{"comparable":54.89,"peRel":0.9123}},"2186":{"name":"Luye Pharma Group","subtitle":"China diversified pharma: CNS + oncology + cardiovascular + metabolic; ERZOFRI paliperidone LAI US launch Apr'25; FY25 rev RMB 6.3B (+4%); MCap HK$10B","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":3990,"netCashLocal":300,"cashPS":0.0752,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.51,"bear":3.44,"base":5.66,"bull":8.24,"psychedelic_bull":10.84},"weightedTP":5.7,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.cns_onc_cv","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":28,"totalWTD":28},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"luye_franchise","indication":"luye_franchise_all","title":"Luye ERZOFRI US launch ramp + FY26 results","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.luye.cn/lvye_en/view.php?id=2385","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.58754884,"successTP":7.88678048,"baseTP":5.70001798,"swingPct":23,"successMove":11,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30}],"salesM2025":880,"lenses":{"comparable":6.12,"peRel":0.9979}},"2228":{"name":"XtalPi Holdings (QuantumPharm)","subtitle":"AI+robotics drug discovery: Lilly $250M + $345M Ailux + Pfizer Paxlovid; FY25 rev RMB 803M +201%, first profitable AI4S HK; cash RMB 9.6B; MCap HK$41B","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":5000,"netCashLocal":9600,"cashPS":1.92,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.24,"bear":2.47,"base":2.74,"bull":3.24,"psychedelic_bull":3.7},"weightedTP":2.84,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.ai.quantum_robotics","_platform","_platform.ai"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":11.077,"totalWTD":11.077},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xtalpi_platform","indication":"xtalpi_services","title":"XtalPi FY 2026 profitability scaling + Lilly Ailux bispecific milestones","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/xtalpi-holdings-announces-full-year-2025-annual-results-302724963.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.68457761,"successTP":2.99080902,"baseTP":2.83769331,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":112,"lenses":{"comparable":2.91}},"2575":{"name":"Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical","subtitle":"Sihuan spin-off IPO Oct'25: BIROCICLIB (XZP-3287) CDK4/6 Ph3 + fulvestrant HR+/HER2- ABC POSITIVE; KBP-3571 PPI + XZP-3621 ALK commercial; MCap HK$18.8B","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":518,"netCashLocal":1800,"cashPS":3.4749,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.86,"bear":10.19,"base":12.53,"bull":16.41,"psychedelic_bull":20.3},"weightedTP":12.84,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","_platform.oncology_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.commercial_onc_gi","_diversified","_diversified.mixed","_diversified.mixed.oncology_pipeline"],"focus":[{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":105},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":95}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":155},{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":45}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":108},{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":92}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":64,"totalTAM":6.3455,"totalWTD":3.87417915},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xuanzhu_pipeline","indication":"xuanzhu_pipeline_onc","title":"Xuanzhu XZP-7797 PARP1 + XZP-6924 USP1 Ph2 PoC progress","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.investing.com/equities/xuanzhu-biopharmaceutical","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.4842185,"successTP":13.3667395,"baseTP":12.8354595,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":7,"lenses":{"comparable":13.75}},"2616":{"name":"CStone Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China oncology biotech (Suzhou + Shanghai) | FY25 RMB 270M (product RMB 78M + license RMB 168M + sugemalimab royalty RMB 24M); adj net loss RMB (290M)","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1594,"netCashLocal":1700,"cashPS":1.0665,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.37,"bear":2.26,"base":3.94,"bull":8.59,"psychedelic_bull":18},"weightedTP":5.27,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.sarcoma.gist","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","oncology.tissue_agnostic","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pdl1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.kit_pdgfra","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.ret","biologic.antibody.trispecific.pd1_vegf_ctla4","biologic.antibody.trispecific","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.ror1","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":3,"optionality":24,"totalTAM":69.96275,"totalWTD":56.5493832},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-24","asset":"cs2009","indication":"nsclc_cs2009","title":"CS2009 PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4 trispecific ESMO 2026 update -- two rapid orals (NSCLC + mCRC Ph1/2), ESMO Oct 23-27 (rolled from Q3 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CStone 2026 interim results PR (Aug 31 2026)","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.25828976,"successTP":5.27831633,"baseTP":5.26609107,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cs2009","indication":"nsclc_cs2009","title":"CS2009 first global Ph3 MRCT initiation by YE2026 (1L NSCLC + 1L mCRC w/ chemo); FDA/CDE protocol alignment Q4 2026; US IND cleared","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CStone FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.25828976,"successTP":5.27831633,"baseTP":5.26609107,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026 / YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cs5001","indication":"dlbcl_cs5001","title":"CS5001 ROR1 ADC 1L DLBCL (+R-CHOP) Ph1b data update (Ph1b CR>90%) -- not among CStone's ESMO 2026 abstracts (CS2009 only); rolled from Sep 30 to YE 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"CStone pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.26427686,"successTP":5.27121003,"baseTP":5.26609107,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":79,"lenses":{"comparable":2.38},"readouts":[{"a":"cs2009","ind":"nsclc_cs2009","ds":"2026-10-24","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":8.82152988,"lo":3.99317654,"hi":13.4986629,"pBeatBest":0.26945,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"2617":{"name":"TransThera Sciences","subtitle":"China oncology: tinengotinib (Yochanra) NMPA-approved Aug'26 in FGFRi-resistant cholangio; global Ph3 FIRST-308 fully enrolled (US+EU+KR+TW); FDA ODD+FT; IPO Jun'25","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":407.2,"netCashLocal":1011.4,"cashPS":2.4838,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.29,"bear":3.04,"base":3.95,"bull":5.48,"psychedelic_bull":6.83},"weightedTP":4.09,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.fgfr_multi_target","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":39}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":140},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":70},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":30}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":164},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":18}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":136,"totalTAM":7.759,"totalWTD":3.288479},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tinengotinib","indication":"tinen_cholangio","title":"Tinengotinib FIRST-308 Ph3 cholangiocarcinoma FGFR-altered readout (US+EU+KR+TW; ODD/FT)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.omm.com/news/press-releases/o-melveny-represents-transthera-sciences-in-its-h-share-ipo-on-the-hong-kong-exchange/","_confidence":"high","_note":"2026-09-15 self-audit: FIRST-308 enrollment complete but no readout date guided -- a slip into 2027 is possible (unverified)","failTP":3.07296747,"successTP":4.76851653,"baseTP":4.08847676,"swingPct":42,"successMove":17,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":4.11}},"2630":{"name":"Vigonvita Life Sciences","subtitle":"China antiviral+neuropsych: VV116 (Mindvy) RdRp oral COVID approved China+Uzbekistan (NEJM non-inferior Paxlovid); RSV BTD; Simcere RSV/HMPV deal Dec'25; MCap HK$6.6B","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":167.6,"netCashLocal":600,"cashPS":3.58,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.05,"bear":24.27,"base":51.62,"bull":97.53,"psychedelic_bull":142.24},"weightedTP":52.73,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.rsv_antiviral","urology.lower_tract.ed","urology","urology.lower_tract"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antiviral.nucleoside_rdrp","small_molecule","small_molecule.antiviral","small_molecule.enzyme.pde5_ed","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":144},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":88},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rsv_antiviral","purity":32},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.ed","purity":24},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":12}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":156},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":87},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.ed","purity":25},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rsv_antiviral","purity":19},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":13}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rsv_antiviral","purity":176},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":90},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.ed","purity":19},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":8.7295,"totalWTD":8.093219},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"vv116","indication":"vv116_rsv","title":"VV116 RSV Ph2/3 pediatric readout + Simcere China RSV/HMPV milestones","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.vigonvita.cn/en/164.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.0309818,"successTP":92.8526311,"baseTP":52.7263672,"swingPct":146,"successMove":76,"failMove":-70,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":32,"daysOut":null,"materiality":84}],"salesM2025":2,"lenses":{"comparable":40.3}},"2637":{"name":"Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China generics+innovative pharma: first-to-file/difficult-to-make/high-value generics + oncology+ophth+CV+endocrine+CNS; HKEX IPO Oct'25; TTM rev $81M; MCap HK$8.2B","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":78.7,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":19.0597,"tps":{"mega_bear":32.31,"bear":39.55,"base":46.88,"bull":57.64,"psychedelic_bull":68.05},"weightedTP":46.72,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.generics_innovative","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":2,"totalWTD":2},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"haixi_franchise","indication":"haixi_diversified","title":"Haixi FY 2026 first full post-IPO year + innovative pipeline progress","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.minichart.com.sg/2026/04/30/fujian-haixi-pharmaceuticals-2025-annual-report-financial-highlights-innovative-drug-pipeline-and-corporate-governance/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":41.1656379,"successTP":53.2818334,"baseTP":46.7200668,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18}],"salesM2025":81,"lenses":{"comparable":73.45,"peRel":1.0005}},"2659":{"name":"Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China synthetic biology: KJ017 recombinant hyaluronidase NMPA NDA under review (approval H1'26); KJ103 IgG-degrading IdeS-like; KJ015 HER2 bispec; MCap HK$8B","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":336,"netCashLocal":800,"cashPS":2.381,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.1,"bear":13.18,"base":33.97,"bull":64.59,"psychedelic_bull":91.7},"weightedTP":29.96,"meta":{"areas":["_platform.delivery.sc","_platform","_platform.delivery","immunology.transplant.desensitization","immunology","immunology.transplant","oncology.tissue_agnostic.her2","oncology","oncology.tissue_agnostic"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.hyaluronidase","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.protease_ides","biologic.antibody.bispecific.her2_her2","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.her2","purity":102},{"area":"_platform.delivery.sc","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":51},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":40},{"area":"immunology.transplant.desensitization","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_platform.delivery.sc","purity":107},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.her2","purity":73},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":37},{"area":"immunology.transplant.desensitization","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.her2","purity":167},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":83},{"area":"immunology.transplant.desensitization","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":17},{"area":"_platform.delivery.sc","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":229,"totalTAM":7.567,"totalWTD":2.2966248},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"kj017_hyal","indication":"kj017_sc_delivery","title":"KJ017 recombinant hyaluronidase NMPA China NDA approval decision (filed 2024)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0326/2026032600470.pdf","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.4476567,"successTP":77.9576761,"baseTP":29.9649054,"swingPct":215,"successMove":160,"failMove":-55,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":91,"daysOut":null,"materiality":90}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":49.64}},"2696":{"name":"Shanghai Henlius Biotech","subtitle":"China biosimilars + serplulimab PD-1 (Hetronifly EU): FY25 global rev RMB 5.77B +17%; serplulimab RMB 1.49B +13.7%; biosimilar cash cow funding innovation; HLX18 nivolumab biosim IND; MCap HK$43.5B","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":543,"netCashLocal":4000,"cashPS":7.3665,"tps":{"mega_bear":17.87,"bear":21.82,"base":26.03,"bull":31.9,"psychedelic_bull":37.55},"weightedTP":26.58,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.sclc","oncology","oncology.lung","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.pd1_anti","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","_diversified.biosimilars.mixed","_diversified","_diversified.biosimilars"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":3.24264,"totalWTD":3.24264},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"serplulimab","indication":"serplulimab_sclc","title":"Henlius FY 2026 global rev execution + HLX18 nivolumab biosim US 2027 launch prep","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.henlius.com/en/NewsDetails-5801-26.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.0857987,"successTP":30.1536197,"baseTP":26.5844901,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":810,"lenses":{"comparable":27.73,"eeRel":0.4416,"peRel":0.6}},"2877":{"name":"China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited","subtitle":"HK-listed Chinese TCM leader | TCM (traditional Chinese medicine) diversified portfolio | oncology + respiratory + GI TCM injections + granules; NRDL coverage; defensive franchise","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":826,"netCashLocal":3000,"cashPS":3.632,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.93,"bear":4.99,"base":6.73,"bull":10.53,"psychedelic_bull":19.98},"weightedTP":7.67,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.china_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["biological_extract.tcm.diversified","biological_extract","biological_extract.tcm"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-30","asset":"tcm_diversified","indication":"tcm_div","title":"REPORTED: Shineway FY25 results reported (routine annual disclosure; reviewed pricing pressure on Chinese TCM herbal portfolio + retail channel weakness)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Shineway IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":7.66525424,"successTP":7.66525424,"baseTP":7.66525424,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":400,"lenses":{"comparable":17.69,"peRel":1.1364}},"3320":{"name":"China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Limited","subtitle":"China #3 distributor + branded TCM owner (RMB 270B FY25, +5%); SOE under CR Group | Distribution 83% + Manufacturing 18% (CR Sanjiu 999 Cold + Dong-E E-Jiao + Double-Crane CV + Boya plasma)","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":6280,"netCashLocal":-63000,"cashPS":-10.0318,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":4.56,"bull":12.29,"psychedelic_bull":22.16},"weightedTP":6.46,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products.stada_otc","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency"],"modalities":["_diversified.distribution.china_wholesale","_diversified","_diversified.distribution","biological_extract.tcm.cold_remedy_brand","biological_extract","biological_extract.tcm","biological_extract.tcm.gelatin_premium","_diversified.branded.cardiovascular_china","_diversified.branded","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.diversified","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":144},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":72},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":28},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":144},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":72},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":28},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":29.8792,"totalWTD":29.8792},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cr_sanjiu","indication":"cr_sanjiu_otc","title":"999 Cold Remedy seasonal + Dong-E E-Jiao premium pricing","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CR Pharma FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.46176354,"successTP":6.46176354,"baseTP":6.46176354,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":36860,"lenses":{"comparable":111.39,"eeRel":1,"peRel":4.5559}},"3692":{"name":"Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd.","subtitle":"Innovation-led oncology/CNS (RMB 15B FY25); aumolertinib EGFR flagship | HS-20093 B7-H3 ADC ARTEMIS-008 SCLC Ph3 HIT Sep'26 (OS HR 0.46), China BLA | olatorepatide NDA","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":5940,"netCashLocal":27000,"cashPS":4.5455,"tps":{"mega_bear":12.2,"bear":17.31,"base":22.44,"bull":27.57,"psychedelic_bull":37.77},"weightedTP":23.21,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.lung.sclc","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.egfr_third_gen","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","_diversified.branded.china_innovative","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.b7h4","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.b7h3","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip_dual","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","small_molecule.gpcr.glp1_oral","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":186},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":93},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":176},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":104},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":74},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":80,"totalTAM":310.51164,"totalWTD":172.116877},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"hs_20093","indication":"hs20093_sclc","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-13: ARTEMIS-008 Ph3 SCLC HIT at interim -- OS 18.5 vs 10.3mo (HR 0.46, p<0.001), PFS 7.2 vs 3.0mo (HR 0.33), ORR 58.3% vs 12.6% vs topotecan (n=461, WCLC); NMPA BLA accepted Sep 2 w/ Priority Review","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.hspharm.com/news/news-detail-513503.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.1333101,"successTP":23.2221167,"baseTP":23.2073589,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"hs_20089","indication":"hs20089_ov","title":"HS-20089 ovarian Ph3 enrollment + GSK milestone triggers","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"GSK partnership","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.1991448,"successTP":23.2188426,"baseTP":23.2073589,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"hs_20093","indication":"hs20093_sclc","title":"HS-20093 (risvutatug rezetecan) NMPA approval decision in relapsed SCLC (BLA accepted Sep 2 2026, Priority Review)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.hspharm.com/news/news-detail-513503.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":23.1466307,"successTP":23.240266,"baseTP":23.2073589,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2100,"lenses":{"comparable":13.16,"eeRel":0.4878,"peRel":0.7},"readouts":[{"a":"hs_20089","ind":"hs20089_ov","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.0503111,"lo":0,"hi":42.9700978,"pBeatBest":0.2276,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3}]},"3696":{"name":"Insilico Medicine Cayman TopCo","subtitle":"AI drug discovery (Pharma.AI): rentosertib Ph3 IPF (China-only; US IND inactive); H1'26 rev $106.3M, first profit; cash $585M; Lilly $115M/$2.75B Mar'26; HKEX IPO Dec'25","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":600.7,"netCashLocal":4454,"cashPS":7.4147,"tps":{"mega_bear":20.9,"bear":32.68,"base":42.8,"bull":60.53,"psychedelic_bull":79.5},"weightedTP":43.11,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.ai.generative_pharma_ai","_platform","_platform.ai"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":110},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":90},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":55}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":111},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":89},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":45}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":185},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":15},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":8}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":23,"totalTAM":18.775,"totalWTD":15.308398},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026 (reported)","dateSort":"2026-07-09","asset":"pharma_ai","indication":"insilico_ipf","title":"REPORTED: rentosertib advanced Ph2 -> Ph3 IPF (2026) + inhaled formulation IND cleared; Lilly $115M/$2.75B (Mar'26) milestone progression","type":"phase3_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://insilico.com/news/p010170up1-insilico-medicine-lists-on-hong-kong-sto","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Insilico H1 2026 positive profit alert (Jul 9 2026) states rentosertib recently entered Phase III for IPF and the inhaled formulation obtained clinical trial approval; H1'26 revenue $102.5M vs FY25 $56.24M full year.","_outcomeSource":"https://insilico.com/news/6f8yhr6sl1-insilico-medicine-releases-positive-prof","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":41.8209443,"successTP":43.7434825,"baseTP":43.1126243,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":79,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"pharma_ai","indication":"insilico_ipf","title":"Rentosertib EX-CHINA registration path (US FDA IND placed on INACTIVE status per Aug 2026 interim report) -- a US/EU pivotal or a partnered global Ph3. GENESIS-IPF-3 is a CHINA-ONLY study (320 pts, 47 China centres), so the US and EU slices in company_slice depend on either a second global study or a partner taking rentosertib ex-China; the Lilly collaboration (Mar 2026) covers other programmes, not rentosertib","type":"partnership","severity":"high","failTP":41.7037782,"successTP":42.5626955,"baseTP":43.1126243,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":66,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"pharma_ai","indication":"insilico_ipf","title":"Rentosertib GENESIS-IPF-3 Ph3 IPF primary readout (320 pts / 47 China centres, 52-wk once-daily vs placebo; first patient dosed 9 Sep 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":93,"_source":"https://insilico.com/news/6f8yhr6sl1-insilico-medicine-releases-positive-prof","_confidence":"medium","failTP":41.7661891,"successTP":43.9831729,"baseTP":43.1126243,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":79,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":79.36},"readouts":[{"a":"pharma_ai","ind":"insilico_ipf","ds":"2028-06-30","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":76.2230048,"lo":-63.528675,"hi":256.323925,"pBeatBest":0.11035,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193}]},"4015":{"name":"Jamjoom Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Saudi MENA branded specialist: KSA + Gulf + Iraq + Egypt + Algeria JV; FY25 rev SAR 1,501M (+13.8%); NI SAR 464M (+30%); MCap SAR 9.74B","currency":"SAR","country":"SA","region":"MEA.OTHER","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":70,"netCashLocal":600,"cashPS":8.5714,"tps":{"mega_bear":60.48,"bear":75.05,"base":92.54,"bull":120.83,"psychedelic_bull":150.4},"weightedTP":97.33,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.mena_branded_rx","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":5,"totalWTD":5},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"jamjoom_branded","indication":"jamjoom_franchise","title":"Jamjoom FY 2026 MENA branded + Algerian JV growth update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/jamjoom-pharmaceuticals-reports-sar-4638m-net-profit-in-2025-2026-02-24","_confidence":"high","failTP":79.766216,"successTP":115.289105,"baseTP":97.3297247,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":400,"lenses":{"comparable":99.81,"peRel":1.1722}},"4147":{"name":"TaiMed Biologics, Inc.","subtitle":"Trogarzo CD4 mAb MDR HIV (FDA'18, THTX royalty ~$25-30M/yr) | TMB-365/380 long-acting bNAb combo HIV MAINTENANCE Ph2b LPI May 22'26 -> interim YE'26 ($3-4B peak) | CD4-ADC autoimmune (preclinical)","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.TW","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":273.2,"netCashLocal":1760,"cashPS":6.4422,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.63,"bear":25,"base":106.12,"bull":165.37,"psychedelic_bull":213.04},"weightedTP":109.18,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.hiv","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.cd4_post_attachment","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.bnab_combo","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.cd4","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":81},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":81},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":81},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":38},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":19}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":41,"rarePurityWtd":76,"optionality":88,"totalTAM":65.591,"totalWTD":34.9230688},"catalysts":[{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tmb365","indication":"tmb365_hiv_maint","title":"TMB-365/380 Ph2b interim analysis YE 2026 (48-wk virally-suppressed HIV, post LPI May 22'26)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/22/3299852/0/en/TaiMed-Biologics-Completes-Phase-2b-Enrollment-for-TMB-365-380.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"TaiMed Biologics completed Phase 2b enrollment ahead of schedule for TMB-365/380 HIV maintenance therapy with interim data expected by year-end 2026; peak sales estimated at $3-4B.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":20.1444256,"successTP":191.937613,"baseTP":109.184724,"swingPct":158,"successMove":76,"failMove":-82,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":83},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"tmb365","indication":"tmb365_hiv_maint","title":"TMB-365/380 ex-Asia licensing deal (potential)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.taimedbiologics.com/article_d.php?lang=en&tb=5&id=3498","_confidence":"medium","failTP":71.1373377,"successTP":231.194604,"baseTP":109.184724,"swingPct":59,"successMove":45,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33}],"salesM2025":20,"lenses":{"comparable":89.33}},"4151":{"name":"Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Specialty pharma | Crysvita +19% YoY (H1 JPY 99.8B) | ROCATINLIMAB DISCONTINUED Mar 3'26 (all trials, risk/benefit) | FY26 Q2 core OP +80%, guidance unchanged","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":530,"netCashLocal":250000,"cashPS":471.6981,"tps":{"mega_bear":1905.66,"bear":2743.4,"base":3641.51,"bull":5754.72,"psychedelic_bull":9716.98},"weightedTP":3969.81,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.calcium.xlh","endocrine","endocrine.calcium","oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","nephrology.ckd.anemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","nephrology.ckd.shpt","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","hematology.hemostasis.antithrombin_deficiency","hematology","hematology.hemostasis"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_fgf23","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ccr4_defucosylated","small_molecule.gpcr.adenosine_a2a_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.erythropoietin","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","small_molecule.gpcr.casr_calcimimetic","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il17ra","small_molecule.transporter.nhe3_inhibitor","small_molecule.transporter","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ox40","biologic.recombinant_protein.serpin.antithrombin","biologic.recombinant_protein.serpin"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":54},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":37},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":37},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":31},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":24},{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":20},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":17},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":10},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":9},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.shpt","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.antithrombin_deficiency","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":45},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":45},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":45},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":37},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":29},{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":24},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":22},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":12},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":12},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":11},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.shpt","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.antithrombin_deficiency","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":84},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":42},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":24},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":24},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":15},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":15},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":14},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":12},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.antithrombin_deficiency","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.shpt","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":13,"rarePurityWtd":16,"optionality":20,"totalTAM":83.1478,"totalWTD":69.3928},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-01-01","dateSort":"2026-01-01","asset":"rocatinlimab","indication":"atopic_dermatitis","title":"REPORTED: Rocatinlimab ROCKET Ph3 (IGNITE + HORIZON) MET co-primaries in adult AD (statistically significant, Lancet 2025; Amgen-led) -- success; pos/apr already at success-tilted level","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.kyowakirin.com/news_releases","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"ROCKET-IGNITE and ROCKET-HORIZON studies published in The Lancet showing statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements","_outcomeSource":"https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01865-3/abstract","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3969.81132,"successTP":3969.81132,"baseTP":3969.81132,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Mar 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-03","asset":"rocatinlimab","indication":"atopic_dermatitis","title":"REPORTED 2026-03-03: ROCATINLIMAB DISCONTINUED -- Kyowa Kirin and Amgen halted ALL ongoing clinical trials after concluding potential risks may outweigh benefits; ROCKET-2/3 readouts and the FDA filing package are void","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"_source":"https://www.kyowakirin.com/media_center/news_releases/2026/e20260303_01.html","_confidence":"high","fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Safety-driven termination of the entire program by both partners. Positive efficacy in ROCKET-IGNITE/HORIZON does not survive a risk-benefit stop, so the asset carries no residual PoS.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3969.81132,"successTP":3969.81132,"baseTP":3969.81132,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"crysvita","indication":"xlh_tio","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-03: FY2026 Q2 -- revenue +14%, core operating profit +80%, interim profit +88%, full-year guidance UNCHANGED; Crysvita +19% YoY (H1 JPY 99.8B, +10%); ~JPY 10B one-time rocatinlimab technology income and JPY 7.4B lower R&D both flow from the program ending","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.kyowakirin.com/en/library/earnings/earnings0/main/0118/teaserItems1/00/linkList/01/link/presentation_2026_q1_en.pdf","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Headline profit growth is inflated by the one-off technology income and by rocatinlimab R&D falling away. The genuinely good news is Crysvita +19%. Guidance unchanged.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3969.81132,"successTP":3969.81132,"baseTP":3969.81132,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"crysvita","indication":"xlh_tio","title":"Crysvita FY26 revenue restatement / Ultragenyx royalty audit clarification","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.kyowakirin.com/ir","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3969.81132,"successTP":3969.81132,"baseTP":3969.81132,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1260,"lenses":{"comparable":4128.54,"peRel":1.1249},"readouts":[{"a":"rocatinlimab","ind":"atopic_dermatitis","ds":"2026-01-01","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":45.5453432,"lo":1.61124886,"hi":88.1123966,"pBeatBest":0.0633,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7},{"a":"rocatinlimab","ind":"atopic_dermatitis","ds":"2026-03-03","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":45.197729,"lo":1.63591313,"hi":88.474845,"pBeatBest":0.0644,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"4162":{"name":"PharmaEngine, Inc.","subtitle":"ONIVYDE 1L+2L pancreatic (NAPOLI-3 FDA Feb 2024, Ipsen royalty) | $50M milestone received 2025 | TTM rev ~$77M | High-dividend royalty","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.TW","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":141.68,"netCashLocal":4675,"cashPS":32.9969,"tps":{"mega_bear":71.38,"bear":110.03,"base":156.46,"bull":199.16,"psychedelic_bull":273.72},"weightedTP":164.79,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology","oncology.gi"],"modalities":["small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.topo1_liposomal","small_molecule","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":12.2925,"totalWTD":12.2925},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"onivyde","indication":"onivyde_pdac","title":"ONIVYDE $50M milestone (received 2025, post-NAPOLI-3 sales targets)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.taiwan-healthcare.org/en/news-detail?id=0sr8lounpx2l2m6v","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Confirmed received in 2025 per Taiwan Healthcare disclosure","_outcomeSource":"https://www.taiwan-healthcare.org/en/news-detail?id=0sr8lounpx2l2m6v","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":87.2484476,"successTP":192.566123,"baseTP":164.786739,"swingPct":19,"successMove":5,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24}],"salesM2025":77,"lenses":{"comparable":101.38,"eeRel":1.9718,"peRel":1.4269}},"4502":{"name":"Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited","subtitle":"Total Rev JPY 4.58T / ~$30.5B FY25 (+3%cc) | Entyvio + Takhzyro + PDT | Vyvanse cliff | 2026 approvals: ORZEYFUL NT1 (Aug 5) + MIMRYLO PV (Aug 28) | zasocitinib NDA accepted, PDUFA Q1 CY27","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1580.3,"netCashLocal":-4479000,"cashPS":-2834.272,"tps":{"mega_bear":1724.25,"bear":3972.54,"base":7316.24,"bull":13310.78,"psychedelic_bull":28025.57},"weightedTP":9069.19,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","cns.psychiatry.adhd","cns","cns.psychiatry","immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","hematology.hemostasis.vwd","oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.leukemia.cml","oncology.leukemia","oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","infectious_disease.viral.cmv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.vaccines.dengue","infectious_disease.vaccines","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","_established_products.takeda_heritage","_established_products","cns.sleep.narcolepsy","cns.sleep","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee","hematology.tma.cttp","hematology.tma","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology.immune_cytopenias","oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_a4b7","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.transporter.dat_amphetamine","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_kallikrein","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.takeda_pdt","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation","biologic.recombinant_protein.coagulation.fviii","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.coagulation","biologic.recombinant_protein.coagulation.recombinant_vwf","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.cd30","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","small_molecule.enzyme.proteasome_boronate","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl_pan","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.alk_2nd_gen","small_molecule.kinase.vegfr","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.corticosteroid_budesonide_oral","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.antiviral.cmv_ul97","small_molecule.antiviral","vaccine.live_attenuated.dengue_tetravalent","vaccine","vaccine.live_attenuated","small_molecule.gpcr.serotonin_modulator","small_molecule.gpcr","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.orexin_2_agonist","small_molecule.kinase.tyk2_allosteric","small_molecule.enzyme.ch24h","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.adamts13","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd38","peptide.hormone_analog.hepcidin_mimetic","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.cldn18_2","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_il2","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.takeda_heritage","purity":23},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":12},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":5},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":3},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.cmv","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.dengue","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.tma.cttp","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.tma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.takeda_heritage","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":15},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":6},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":3},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.cmv","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.dengue","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.tma.cttp","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.tma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.takeda_heritage","purity":66},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":25},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":22},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":18},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":7},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.dengue","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":3},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.cmv","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.tma.cttp","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.tma","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":22,"rarePurityWtd":23,"optionality":17,"totalTAM":256.62305,"totalWTD":218.615745},"catalysts":[{"date":"2023-11-09","dateSort":"2023-11-09","asset":"tak755_radamts13","indication":"cttp","title":"REPORTED (2023-11-09, approved): TAK-755 (rADAMTS13) cTTP PDUFA -- ADZYNMA FDA approved (1st recombinant ADAMTS13); commercial (JP 2024, EU 2024)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"BLA filed Q3 2025; first & only therapy for cTTP.","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"ADZYNMA (TAK-755) approved by FDA November 2023 as first recombinant ADAMTS13 therapy for cTTP","_outcomeSource":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231106845467/en/Takedas-ADZYNMA-ADAMTS13-recombinant-krhn-Approved-by-U.S.-FDA-as-the-First-and-Only-Recombinant-ADAMTS13-Enzyme-Replacement-Therapy-for-the-Treatment-of-Congenital-Thrombotic-Thrombocytopenic-Purpura-cTTP","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":9068.89306,"successTP":9069.32976,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2024-06-17","dateSort":"2024-06-17","asset":"soticlestat","indication":"dravet_lgs","title":"REPORTED (2024-06-17, fail): Soticlestat SKYWAY LGS + SKYLINE Dravet Ph3 BOTH MISSED; entire program DISCONTINUED Jan 2025 (FDA said data package insufficient); JPY 21.5B impairment -- asset dead","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":70,"_confidence":"low","_rationale":"SKYLINE primary missed 2024; secondaries positive. SKYWAY LGS uncertain.","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Missed primary endpoint of reduction in Major Motor Drop seizure frequency versus placebo","_outcomeSource":"https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2024/soticlestat-drevat-syndrom-phase3-results/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":9069.1898,"successTP":9070.48822,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2025-12-18","dateSort":"2025-12-18","asset":"tak279_zasocitinib","indication":"pso","title":"REPORTED (2025-12, success): Zasocitinib (TAK-279) plaque psoriasis Ph3 POSITIVE (trials LATITUDE PsO/NIMBUS; >50% PASI90, ~30% PASI100 wk16; superior to apremilast; all 44 ranked secondaries met)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":80,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Ph2b was best-in-class data vs Sotyktu; Ph3 expectations high.","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Positive topline results announced December 18, 2025, hit all primary and secondary endpoints with 70% achieving clear/almost clear skin","_outcomeSource":"https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2025/takeda-zasocitinib-phase-3-plaque-psoriasis-data-once-daily-pill/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":9065.28428,"successTP":9070.79086,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-06-11","dateSort":"2026-06-11","asset":"tak279_zasocitinib","indication":"pso","title":"REPORTED (2026-06, success): Zasocitinib LATITUDE Atlas Ph3 H2H BEAT deucravacitinib/Sotyktu (PASI100 wk16 superiority + all key secondaries; >35% PASI100 vs ~14%); NDA filing this FY (~Mar 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":78,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":82,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"LATITUDE Atlas (n=606): zasocitinib STATISTICALLY SUPERIOR to Sotyktu on primary (PASI 100 wk16 ~2.5x) and all key secondaries; Takeda to file NDA FY26. Confirms best-in-class oral TYK2 positioning.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260611341613/en/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":9066.92184,"successTP":9070.80259,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 5, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"oveporexton","indication":"nt1","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-05, approved): ORZEYFUL (oveporexton) FDA-approved for narcolepsy type 1 -- first-in-class oral orexin-2 receptor agonist","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approval granted Aug 5 2026 on the Ph3 FirstLight + RadiantLight package (273 adults, NT1). Asset newly added to the config at this review -- it was entirely absent. Held in the pipeline RA bucket rather than the commercial bucket because val.commercialRevM is anchored to the FY25/FY26 revenue base and contains no oveporexton revenue.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2026/orzeyful-approved-narcolepsy/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":9067.17232,"successTP":9069.85438,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 28 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-28","asset":"rusfertide","indication":"pv","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-28, approved): MIMRYLO (rusfertide) FDA-approved for erythrocytosis in adults with polycythemia vera -- first-in-class once-weekly subcutaneous hepcidin mimetic; Ph3 VERIFY 76.9% clinical response at weeks 20-32, reduced phlebotomy burden and improved fatigue. Discovered by Protagonist and developed through Ph3 by Protagonist; Takeda holds exclusive global development and commercialisation rights.","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Confirmed FDA approval (Takeda newsroom + Business Wire, 2026-08-28). SCAFFOLDED 2026-08-31 as a `rusfertide` asset on the hematology.myeloproliferative.pv authoritative area, held in the SOTP PIPELINE bucket (revenue is ~zero today, so commercialRevM x commercialMult would value the launch at nothing). Protagonist's ~20% blended royalty is netted out of Takeda's captured priceK.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"Takeda newsroom 2026-08-28 + Business Wire; corroborated by STAT and FiercePharma","_sourceUrl":"https://www.takeda.com/en-us/newsroom/news-releases/2026/fda-approval-mimrylo/","failTP":9068.24247,"successTP":9068.86657,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 23, 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-23","asset":"tak921_arcotatug","indication":"tak921_gastric","title":"TAK-921 (IBI343) Ph3 G-HOPE-001 first-interim data, ESMO 2026 late-breaker LBA77 (PFS primary endpoint already met Jun 2026); informs a Japan filing","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/takeda-highlights-late-stage-oncology-pipeline-progress-and-solid-tumor-portfolio-research-led-by-late-breaking-phase-3-arcotatug-tavatecan-tak-921-data-at-esmo-2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":9069.07899,"successTP":9069.28216,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-05","asset":"oveporexton","indication":"nt1","title":"ORZEYFUL DEA controlled-substance scheduling decision (expected within ~90 days of approval) -- gates US commercial launch","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"freshness-review 2026-08-10","_sourceUrl":"https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/takeda-orzeyful-oveporexton-fda-approval-type-1-narcolepsy/","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Takeda guided to DEA scheduling within 90 days. Approval is already banked (pos/apr 100); this catalyst gates the launch ramp, i.e. the pen assumption, not the probability of success.","failTP":9068.52519,"successTP":9069.85438,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"tak279_zasocitinib","indication":"pso","title":"Zasocitinib (TAK-279) plaque psoriasis FDA PDUFA (NDA accepted Sep 14 2026 under Priority Review; EMA MAA also under review)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2026/fda-priority-review-zasocitinib-psoriasis/","_confidence":"high","failTP":9065.8295,"successTP":9071.335,"baseTP":9069.1898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":27760,"lenses":{"comparable":11492.73,"eeRel":1.1842}},"4503":{"name":"Astellas Pharma Inc.","subtitle":"Padcev+Keytruda FDA-approved Jul 10'26 neoadj+adj MIBC any cisplatin status (EV-303 -60% event risk) | Q1 FY26 sales JPY 640.9B | Xtandi LOE Aug 2027","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1790,"netCashLocal":280000,"cashPS":156.4246,"tps":{"mega_bear":1901.18,"bear":2666.06,"base":3817.01,"bull":5665.15,"psychedelic_bull":8905.5},"weightedTP":4265.04,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.nmcrpc","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","ophthalmology.retina.ga","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric","women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","women_health","women_health.menopause","oncology.leukemia.aml.flt3_mut","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","urology.lower_tract.oab","urology","urology.lower_tract","immunology.transplant.solid_organ","immunology","immunology.transplant","infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.fungal","cardio_metabolic.imaging.cardiac_stress","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.imaging","_established_products.astellas_heritage","_established_products","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck","oncology.leukemia.bpdcn"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.androgen_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.nectin4","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aptamer.c5_pegylated","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aptamer","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cldn18_2","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.gpcr.nk3_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.kinase.flt3","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.gpcr.beta3_agonist","small_molecule.enzyme.calcineurin_cni","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.antifungal.echinocandin","small_molecule.antifungal","small_molecule.gpcr.a2a_adenosine_agonist","peptide.hormone_analog.gnrh.lhrh_agonist","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.gnrh","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.antibody.conjugate.cetuximab_ir700","biologic.antibody.conjugate","biologic.adc.dna_payload.cd123","biologic.adc.dna_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"urology.lower_tract.oab","purity":51},{"area":"_established_products.astellas_heritage","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":27},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":19},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":8},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":8},{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":4},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.nmcrpc","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.flt3_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.imaging.cardiac_stress","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.imaging","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.bpdcn","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"urology.lower_tract.oab","purity":52},{"area":"_established_products.astellas_heritage","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":27},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":19},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":13},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":8},{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":4},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.nmcrpc","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.flt3_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.imaging.cardiac_stress","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.imaging","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.bpdcn","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":41},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.oab","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":22},{"area":"_established_products.astellas_heritage","purity":21},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":13},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.nmcrpc","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":9},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":5},{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.imaging.cardiac_stress","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.imaging","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.flt3_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.bpdcn","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":10,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":133.1408,"totalWTD":130.23067},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-10","asset":"padcev","indication":"uc","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-10: PADCEV + KEYTRUDA FDA-APPROVED as neoadjuvant then adjuvant treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer regardless of cisplatin eligibility -- EV-303/KEYNOTE-905 showed -60% recurrence/progression/death and -50% death vs surgery alone","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":92,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Earlier-line + perioperative MIBC expansion key for $10B+ ceiling.","_source":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-pembrolizumab-or-pembrolizumab-and-berahyaluronidase-alfa-pmph-each-enfortumab-vedotin","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Pivotal hit converted straight into an approval in an earlier, larger line of therapy. Padcev is already commercial at pos/apr 100 in this config, so there is no PoS lever; capturing the value needs a new perioperative-MIBC indication entry, which is flagged for the user.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":4265.0382,"successTP":4265.0382,"baseTP":4265.0382,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"xtandi","indication":"xtandi_mhspc","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-05: Q1 FY2026 -- sales JPY 640.9B, net income JPY 141.8B (sharp YoY increase); fezolinetant NDA submitted to Japan MHLW for menopausal vasomotor symptoms","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.astellas.com/en/investors/financial-results-library","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Profit surge signalling better operational efficiency ahead of the Aug 2027 Xtandi cliff. All-commercial portfolio -- no PoS lever applies.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":4265.0382,"successTP":4265.0382,"baseTP":4265.0382,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2027","dateSort":"2027-08-30","asset":"xtandi","indication":"xtandi_nmcrpc","title":"Xtandi US LOE -- generic enzalutamide launch (-50% 2028 guide)","type":"loe","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Composition LOE Aug 2027; ANDA filers waiting.","failTP":4265.0382,"successTP":4265.0382,"baseTP":4265.0382,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"asp1929_pit","indication":"hnscc_salvage","title":"ASP-1929 PIT US BLA/FDA decision (global Ph3 ASP-1929-381 enrolling; BLA now targeted 2028)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":84,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Approved Japan 2020; novel mechanism FDA review uncertainty.","_note":"SLIPPED: no US BLA filed as of 2026-07-06 -- the 'filed Q4 2024' premise was incorrect. Rakuten Medical is still enrolling the global first-line Ph3 (ASP-1929-381 + pembrolizumab) and now guides US BLA submission to 2028; PDUFA date rolled accordingly. Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rakuten-medical-raises-100-million-in-oversubscribed-series-f-to-accelerate-development-toward-us-regulatory-approval-302655158.html","failTP":4264.86733,"successTP":4265.20037,"baseTP":4265.0382,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":14646,"lenses":{"comparable":4887.86,"eeRel":2.029,"peRel":1.494}},"4506":{"name":"Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Post-Latuda LOE restructuring | SPA franchise: Orgovyx (relugolix prostate ADT) + Myfembree (relugolix combo uterine fibroids/endometriosis) + Ulduvy","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":448.59,"netCashLocal":-84058,"cashPS":-187.3827,"tps":{"mega_bear":464.66,"bear":736.21,"base":1139.03,"bull":1956.82,"psychedelic_bull":3831.95},"weightedTP":1235.37,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","women_health.gyn_disorders.uterine_fibroids","women_health","women_health.gyn_disorders","women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","urology.lower_tract.oab","urology","urology.lower_tract","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns.neurodegeneration","ophthalmology.retina.ga","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.atypical_antipsychotic","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.gnrh_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr.beta3_agonist","small_molecule.ion_channel.sodium_blocker","small_molecule.ion_channel","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.ipsc_derived","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","small_molecule.gpcr.beta2_agonist"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":48},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.oab","purity":33},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":24},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":22},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":21},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":18},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":16},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":15},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":8},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.uterine_fibroids","purity":8},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":8},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":8},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":7},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":55},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.oab","purity":37},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":27},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":27},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":24},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":21},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":19},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.uterine_fibroids","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":9},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":8},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":5},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"urology.lower_tract.oab","purity":42},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":30},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":26},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.uterine_fibroids","purity":23},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":21},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":17},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":14},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":9},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":7},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":14,"totalTAM":102.6695,"totalWTD":89.9609},"catalysts":[{"date":"2023","dateSort":"2023-12-31","asset":"gemtesa","indication":"oab","title":"RESOLVED (phantom): Gemtesa OAB-BPH Ph3 COURAGE already read out POSITIVE in 2023; only subgroup analyses presented in 2026 -- no pending readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.sumitomo-pharma.com/ir/library/quarterly_report","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":1235.37044,"successTP":1235.37044,"baseTP":1235.37044,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Mar 6 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-06","asset":"dsp_1083","indication":"parkinson","title":"RESOLVED 2026-03-06: AMCHEPRY (raguneprocel, DSP-1083) received Japanese CONDITIONAL, TIME-LIMITED approval for PD motor symptoms inadequately controlled by levodopa; NHI price JPY 55.3M (listed May 20 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sumitomo-pharma.com/news/20260306.html","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","failTP":1233.31193,"successTP":1234.87901,"baseTP":1235.37044,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"orgovyx","indication":"prostate_adt","title":"Orgovyx EU label expansion + Japan launch (full geo footprint)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sumitomo-pharma.com/news","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1235.37044,"successTP":1235.37044,"baseTP":1235.37044,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1495,"lenses":{"comparable":1794.77,"eeRel":1.2105,"peRel":5.3814}},"4507":{"name":"Shionogi & Co. Ltd.","subtitle":"Japanese pharma + ViiV royalty franchise (post 1:3 stock split Oct 2024) | FY24 JPY 432B / ~$2.9B | Cefiderocol Fetroja + ViiV royalty + S-1226 dengue + Tezspire AZ royalty","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":851,"netCashLocal":350000,"cashPS":411.2808,"tps":{"mega_bear":2103.33,"bear":2808.41,"base":3584,"bull":4994.15,"psychedelic_bull":7814.4},"weightedTP":3829.36,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.hiv","infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease.bacterial","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_oic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","cns.psychiatry.adhd","cns","cns.psychiatry","_established_products.shionogi_jp_heritage","_established_products","infectious_disease.viral.covid_prevention","cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","cns.cerebrovascular","infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","infectious_disease.fungal"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.integrase_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.enzyme.protease_inhibitor","small_molecule.antibacterial.cephalosporin","small_molecule.antibacterial","small_molecule.gpcr.tpo_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr.alpha2a_agonist","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","peptide.hormone_analog.gpe_neuroprotectant","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","small_molecule.antifungal.mixed","small_molecule.antifungal"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":64},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":42},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":42},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":40},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":28},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":14},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":9},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":8},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":8},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_oic","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_prevention","purity":4},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.shionogi_jp_heritage","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":66},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":49},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":49},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":33},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":31},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":19},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":16},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_oic","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_prevention","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.shionogi_jp_heritage","purity":0},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":0},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":75},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":57},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":57},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":37},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":23},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":12},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_oic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.shionogi_jp_heritage","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_prevention","purity":0},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":0},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":8,"rarePurityWtd":10,"optionality":14,"totalTAM":62.750002,"totalWTD":54.804247},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"ensitrelvir_global","indication":"covid_pep","title":"REPORTED: Ensitrelvir SCORPIO-PEP NDA PDUFA (post-exposure prophylaxis; SCORPIO-HR treatment NDA path dead after Ph3 primary miss May 2024) -- FDA APPROVED May 29 2026 (ahead of Jun 16 PDUFA) -- XOCOVA first oral COVID post-exposure prophylaxis; SCORPIO-PEP 67% risk reduction","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"FDA NDA acceptance; Shionogi Apr 2025 announcement","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"APPROVED Jun 1 2026 (ahead of Jun 16 PDUFA): FDA approved XOCOVA (ensitrelvir) for COVID-19 post-exposure prophylaxis in adults/adolescents 12+. First and only oral PEP option; SCORPIO-PEP cut symptomatic COVID risk 67%. Assumptions moved to success (pos 90 / apr 95).","_noteSource":"https://www.shionogi.com/us/en/news/2026/06/shionogi-announces-fda-approval-of-xocova-ensitrelvir-the-first-and-only-oral-option-to-help-prevent-covid-19-following-exposure.html","failTP":3829.33661,"successTP":3829.36896,"baseTP":3829.36143,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 9 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-09","asset":"redasemtide","indication":"ais_neuro","title":"REPORTED (2026-09-09, missed): Redasemtide global Ph2b acute ischemic stroke topline -- no significant improvement in 90-day mRS vs placebo; Shionogi weighing future policy","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Shionogi pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeSource":"https://www.shionogi.com/global/en/news/2026/09/20260909_2.html","failTP":3829.36125,"successTP":3829.36799,"baseTP":3829.36143,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"fosmanogepix","indication":"invasive_fungal","title":"Fosmanogepix invasive candidiasis Ph3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Basilea/Shionogi","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3829.27195,"successTP":3829.42075,"baseTP":3829.36143,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"ensitrelvir_global","indication":"covid_pep","title":"Ensitrelvir SCORPIO-SR severe-risk Ph3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Shionogi pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3829.33541,"successTP":3829.36896,"baseTP":3829.36143,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3147,"lenses":{"comparable":2040.75,"eeRel":0.5895,"peRel":0.9857}},"4516":{"name":"Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Japanese rare-disease specialty pharma | FY25 (FYE Mar'26) revenue ~JPY 170B | Uptravi PAH royalty (JNJ) + Viltepso DMD exon53 + RGX-121/-111 Asia (RGNX) + deramiocel JP/US partner (CAPR; lawsuit)","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":67.4,"netCashLocal":75124,"cashPS":1114.5994,"tps":{"mega_bear":3041.64,"bear":4006.29,"base":5401.37,"bull":7939.4,"psychedelic_bull":12243.01},"weightedTP":5854.05,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.cardiomyopathy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.prostacyclin_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.pmo_exon_skipping","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_iduronate_sulfatase","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.cardiosphere_derived","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","small_molecule.kinase.pdgfr","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":137},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":68},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":29},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":29},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.cardiomyopathy","purity":25},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":4},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":158},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":79},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":16},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":16},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":8},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.cardiomyopathy","purity":8},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":137},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":68},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":32},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":32},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.cardiomyopathy","purity":32},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":0},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":0},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":95,"totalTAM":21.01275,"totalWTD":10.754208},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-05-15","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"uptravi_royalty","indication":"uptravi_pah","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-15: Nippon Shinyaku FY25 (FYE Mar 2026) full-year results -- in line; revenue ~JPY 170B, Uptravi royalty ~JPY 46B; no assumption change (commercial pos/apr pinned 100)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Nippon Shinyaku IR calendar","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Nippon Shinyaku FY25 full-year results (FYE Mar 2026) released on scheduled mid-May 2026 date per Japanese pharma earnings calendar.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.nippon-shinyaku.co.jp/english/ir/","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":5854.05382,"successTP":5854.05382,"baseTP":5854.05382,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-22","asset":"deramiocel_partner","indication":"deramiocel_dmd_cardio","title":"Deramiocel PDUFA ROLLED Aug 22 -> Nov 22 2026 (FDA major-amendment extension announced 24-Aug-2026 after Capricor filed HOPE-3 24-mo OLE data + refined upper-limb indication) — partnered asset (NS Pharma US rights)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Capricor PR Mar 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":5853.72865,"successTP":5855.28083,"baseTP":5854.05382,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"deramiocel_partner","indication":"deramiocel_dmd_cardio","title":"CAPR vs NS Pharma lawsuit outcome (rescission of US deramiocel rights)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Capricor lawsuit May 7 2026","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5853.93611,"successTP":5855.16934,"baseTP":5854.05382,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":17,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-10-31","asset":"ns_863","indication":"ns_863_pah","title":"NS-863 global Ph2 (PAH; NCT07441200, n~135, low/high dose vs pbo) topline -- primary endpoint PVR change at week 24; primary completion est. Aug 2028","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07441200 ; Nippon Shinyaku Q1 FY2026 tanshin (6-Aug-2026)","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5853.13196,"successTP":5855.14799,"baseTP":5854.05382,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":415,"lenses":{"comparable":8747.32,"eeRel":5.3125,"peRel":1.2525},"readouts":[{"a":"ns_863","ind":"ns_863_pah","ds":"2028-10-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","endpoint":"six_mwd_change_m","unit":"m","src":"class","med":12.8339237,"lo":-17.2916512,"hi":54.7794962,"pBeatBest":0.1126,"bestDrug":"sotatercept","bestValue":40.8}]},"4519":{"name":"Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Roche-majority Japanese specialty (~62% Roche) | H1'26 revenue JPY663.3B (+14.7%), core op profit JPY329.1B (+21%) | FY26 guide JPY1,345B (+6.9%) | Hemlibra + Vabysmo + NEMLUVIO exports drive growth","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1679,"netCashLocal":1200000,"cashPS":714.7111,"tps":{"mega_bear":3112.25,"bear":4199.82,"base":6329.87,"bull":9829.87,"psychedelic_bull":18228.38},"weightedTP":6945.52,"meta":{"areas":["hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","immunology.autoimmune","oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dme","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology.hemolytic","oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","oncology.tissue_agnostic","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","women_health","women_health.gyn_disorders"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.fixa_fx","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il6r","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.alk","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.cd79b","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","biologic.antibody.bispecific.vegf_ang2","small_molecule.rna_modulator.splice_mixed","small_molecule.rna_modulator","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_c5_recycling","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_her2_combo","small_molecule.kinase.trk_ros1_inhibitor","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.vdr_agonist","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_mif"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":43},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":41},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":31},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":26},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":18},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":15},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":13},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":13},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":7},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":46},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":33},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":19},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":17},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":16},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":14},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":14},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":14},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":14},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":8},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":1},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":48},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":29},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":15},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":14},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":14},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":1},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":33,"rarePurityWtd":30,"optionality":6,"totalTAM":144.11105,"totalWTD":135.35385},"catalysts":[{"date":"Late Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-23","asset":"vabysmo","indication":"nvamd","title":"Vabysmo nAMD market share + revenue ramp update vs Eylea HD (rolled from Sep 30 -- no discrete event; next read at Chugai Q3 FY2026 results, late Oct)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/english/ir/","_confidence":"high","failTP":6945.52105,"successTP":6945.52105,"baseTP":6945.52105,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"actemra","indication":"ra","title":"Actemra biosimilar erosion update + 10-K Japan/global revenue impact","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/english/ir/","_confidence":"high","failTP":6945.52105,"successTP":6945.52105,"baseTP":6945.52105,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"nxt007","indication":"hema_next","title":"NXT007 Phase 3 programme readout (two Ph3 started 2026; Hemlibra successor) -- ROLLED from Ph2/3 2027 framing","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/english/profile/research/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6943.75285,"successTP":6944.89234,"baseTP":6945.52105,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":8590,"lenses":{"comparable":3720.2,"eeRel":0.9091,"peRel":0.9198}},"4523":{"name":"Eisai Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Total Revenue JPY 790B / ~\\$5.3B FY2025 | Leqembi (anti-amyloid AD; w/ Biogen) +109% YoY | Lenvima (multi-kinase; w/ Merck) | Dayvigo orexin DORA | E2086 orexin agonist Ph2 narcolepsy","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":282,"netCashLocal":88000,"cashPS":312.0567,"tps":{"mega_bear":2266.64,"bear":4917.08,"base":6570.52,"bull":9912.21,"psychedelic_bull":17900.67},"weightedTP":7509.24,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","oncology.endocrine","oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.tnbc","oncology.sarcoma.sts","oncology.sarcoma","cns.sleep.insomnia","cns.sleep","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.eisai_heritage","_established_products","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","cns.sleep.narcolepsy"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_amyloid","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.vegfr_multikinase","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.eribulin","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","small_molecule.gpcr.dora_orexin_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.ion_channel.ampa_antagonist","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.enzyme.h_k_atpase","small_molecule.enzyme","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.kinase.fgfr_pan","small_molecule.gpcr.orexin_agonist"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.eisai_heritage","purity":62},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":14},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":12},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":12},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":10},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":8},{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":4},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.eisai_heritage","purity":66},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":13},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":12},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":8},{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":6},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":4},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.eisai_heritage","purity":40},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":26},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":14},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":14},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":13},{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":13},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":7},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":10,"rarePurityWtd":9,"optionality":6,"totalTAM":96.3119,"totalWTD":90.7285375},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-05-08","dateSort":"2026-05-08","asset":"leqembi_sc","indication":"ad_maint","title":"REPORTED (2025-08-29, approved): Leqembi IQLIK SC autoinjector maintenance FDA APPROVED (weekly 360mg; launched Oct 2025). SC starting-dose sBLA PDUFA 2026-05-24 tracked separately","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"SC formulation for maintenance dosing; FDA review.","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"PDUFA date extended from May 24 to August 24, 2026 due to FDA requesting additional information; no safety concerns raised but requires major amendment review","_outcomeSource":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/leqembi-iqlik-pdufa-date-updated-to-august-24-in-the-us-302766723.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":7502.70873,"successTP":7512.27221,"baseTP":7509.23868,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-13","asset":"leqembi_sc","indication":"ad_maint","title":"REPORTED: FDA approved LEQEMBI IQLIK (lecanemab-irmb) SC autoinjector as an INITIATION dose for early Alzheimer's (Jul 13 2026) - IV-free from treatment start; US launch late Aug 2026","type":"label_expansion","fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"failTP":7506.20443,"successTP":7512.27221,"baseTP":7509.23868,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"tasurgratinib","indication":"cholangiocarcinoma","title":"RESOLVED: no registered Ph3; removed -- former 'tasurgratinib FGFR2 cholangiocarcinoma Ph3 readout' placeholder (Japan approval Sep 2024 rested on Ph2 Study 201; no Ph3 on registries)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":75,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"FGFR class crowded (Truseltiq + Pemazyre + Lytgobi).","_outcome":"unknown","_outcomeRationale":"No registered Ph3; removed (phantom catalyst). Asset remodelled as Japan-approved, Japan-centric (2026-10-05).","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":7509.2339,"successTP":7509.24365,"baseTP":7509.23868,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"e2086_orexin_agonist","indication":"narcolepsy","title":"E2086 orexin-2 agonist Phase 2 Study 202 narcolepsy readout (NCT07493265; primary completion est Feb 14 2027) -- corrected from 'Ph3 readout': no E2086 Ph3 is registered","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Class race vs Takeda TAK-861 oveporexton (Ph3 ahead). 2026-10-05: values re-set to Phase-2 semantics (were 78/72 success, 35/35 fail -- Ph3-calibrated): success floors pos/apr at 60/70 (Ph3 entry on de-risked OX2R class, LoA ~42% vs base 46.8x62 = ~29%); fail caps at 8/30 (LoA ~2%).","_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07493265","failTP":7497.036,"successTP":7516.09484,"baseTP":7509.23868,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":47,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":5165,"lenses":{"comparable":9675.81,"eeRel":1.0145,"peRel":0.6415},"readouts":[{"a":"e2086_orexin_agonist","ind":"narcolepsy","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","endpoint":"mwt_latency_change_min","unit":"min","src":"class","med":9.56945619,"lo":-5,"hi":30.9579983,"pBeatBest":0.06665,"bestDrug":"oveporexton (TAK-861)","bestValue":26}]},"4528":{"name":"Ono Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.","subtitle":"Japanese innovative pharma | Opdivo originator (BMS-licensed ex-JP/KR/TW) | FY25 (to Mar-26) record earnings; Opdivo JP sales down, BMS royalty up (9M JPY92.5B) | Tirabrutinib US PDUFA 18-Dec-26","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":470,"netCashLocal":75000,"cashPS":159.5745,"tps":{"mega_bear":1425.27,"bear":1993.78,"base":2788.68,"bull":4005.62,"psychedelic_bull":6384.01},"weightedTP":2961.46,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","oncology.gi.esophageal","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck","oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.sarcoma.gist","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.sarcoma.tgct","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","_established_products.ono_jp_heritage","_established_products","oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","oncology.leukemia.cml","oncology.leukemia","oncology.gi.pancreatic"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.transporter.sglt2","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.enzyme.proteasome_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.kinase.kit_pdgfra","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.csf1r","small_molecule.kinase.btk","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tce_pd1_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific","small_molecule.kinase.tyk2_jak1","small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl","small_molecule.kinase.ulk1_2"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":66},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":27},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.tgct","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.ono_jp_heritage","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":77},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.tgct","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.ono_jp_heritage","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":71},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.tgct","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.ono_jp_heritage","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":13,"rarePurityWtd":13,"optionality":17,"totalTAM":236.746352,"totalWTD":203.050828},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"romvimza","indication":"tgct","title":"Romvimza US + EU launch ramp (TGCT first full year)","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ono FY25 IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":2961.46006,"successTP":2961.46006,"baseTP":2961.46006,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Dec 18 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-18","asset":"tirabrutinib","indication":"pcnsl","title":"Tirabrutinib US R/R PCNSL FDA PDUFA decision (NDA accepted Feb 17 2026 accelerated pathway via Deciphera; Ph2 PROSPECT ORR 67%/CR 44%) -- decision pending","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"FDA NDA acceptance Feb 16 2025; ASCO 2025 PROSPECT data","_confidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"FDA accepted NDA under accelerated approval pathway with new PDUFA date of December 18, 2026; 67% ORR and 44% CR from PROSPECT study supported filing","_outcomeSource":"https://www.deciphera.com/news/deciphera-pharmaceuticals-announces-us-food-and-drug-administration-acceptance-filing-new-drug","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_note":"Corrected 2026-07-07: prior '2026-02-17 success' was NDA acceptance-for-filing, NOT approval. Real PDUFA action date is 2026-12-18 (Deciphera PR). Rolled date forward; assumptions unchanged (filing accepted, strong Ph2).","failTP":2961.46006,"successTP":2961.46006,"baseTP":2961.46006,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":96,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"ono_4685","indication":"tcl_rr","title":"ONO-4685 PD-1xCD3 Ph1 expansion data (T-cell lymphoma)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":80,"_source":"Ono pipeline","_confidence":"low","failTP":2961.41435,"successTP":2961.49099,"baseTP":2961.46006,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"qinlock","indication":"gist_4l","title":"Qinlock label expansion Ph3 (INSIGHT 2L+ GIST)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ono/Deciphera pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2961.46006,"successTP":2961.46006,"baseTP":2961.46006,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3421,"lenses":{"comparable":3121.55,"eeRel":1.8421,"peRel":1.3329}},"4530":{"name":"Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co., Inc. (private; MBO by Taiyo Kosan, delisted May 2026)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- founder-family MBO (Taiyo Kosan) tender at JPY 6,082/sh (~JPY 390B) closed Feb'26; squeeze-out, delisted TSE 11-May-2026 | Salonpas OTC/Rx patch leader, 50+ countries","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns","cns.pain"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.transdermal.patch_mixed","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.transdermal"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":200},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":200},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":3.35,"totalWTD":3.35},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":1050},"4536":{"name":"Santen Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"Japanese ophthalmology #1: FY-Mar'26 JPY ~291.6B (below guide, declining; core op -20.3%) | Japan/Overseas ~53/47; glaucoma/dry eye/allergy/myopia/ptosis | Jun26 mult recal 1.2-4.5x","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":321.67,"netCashLocal":50000,"cashPS":155.4388,"tps":{"mega_bear":2613.74,"bear":3289.96,"base":3912.37,"bull":4958.7,"psychedelic_bull":6348.3},"weightedTP":4075.69,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.glaucoma.open_angle","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.glaucoma","ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","ophthalmology.surface"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.glaucoma_dry_eye_allergy","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma.open_angle","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma","purity":50},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":50}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma.open_angle","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma","purity":50},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":50}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":106},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma.open_angle","purity":94},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":53},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma","purity":47}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":11.09,"totalWTD":11.09},"catalysts":[{"date":"Late Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"santen_ophthalmic","indication":"santen_glaucoma","title":"CORRECTED: Santen H1 FY2026 results -- Santen's fiscal year ends 31 March, so H1 (Apr-Sep 2026) reports in late Oct/Nov 2026, not September; Q1 FY2026 was reported 6 Aug 2026 and the FY-Mar'26 full year on 12 May 2026","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.santen.com/content/dam/santen/global/pdf/en/ir/document/202503/mtg2025_script.pdf","_confidence":"high","failTP":3663.16188,"successTP":4495.53176,"baseTP":4075.68901,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":2000,"lenses":{"comparable":2658.24,"eeRel":1.1375,"peRel":0.9548}},"4540":{"name":"TSUMURA & CO.","subtitle":"Japan Kampo monopoly | FY25 JPY 182.3B (FYE Mar'25) | Kampo prescription portfolio ~80% Japan market share; NHI-reimbursed; defensive compounder + dividend payer","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":75.4,"netCashLocal":-51100,"cashPS":-677.7188,"tps":{"mega_bear":1576.92,"bear":2903.18,"base":4866.05,"bull":7677.72,"psychedelic_bull":13645.89},"weightedTP":5310.34,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.japan_kampo","_established_products"],"modalities":["biological_extract.tcm.kampo_japanese","biological_extract","biological_extract.tcm"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 15, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"kampo","indication":"kampo_div","title":"REPORTED (routine disclosure): Tsumura FY ended 31-Mar-2026 -- revenue JPY 192.6bn (+6.4% YoY), domestic Kampo JPY 161.2bn, China business JPY 31.4bn (+52.4% YoY). No valuation consequence: the asset is a commercial diversified bucket with pos/apr pinned at 100","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Tsumura IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Tsumura FY25 final results (FYE Mar 2026) released on schedule.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.tsumura.co.jp/english/ir/","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":5310.34483,"successTP":5310.34483,"baseTP":5310.34483,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1200,"lenses":{"comparable":8513.12,"peRel":1.0475}},"4552":{"name":"JCR Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Japanese lysosomal storage + BBB-crossing platform | FY24 JPY 33B (op loss JPY 6.6B) | Izcargo MPS II Japan since 2021 | JR-141 global Ph3 enrollment complete Jul'25 | Acumen Alzheimer's BBB partner","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":121.98,"netCashLocal":15000,"cashPS":122.971,"tps":{"mega_bear":202.04,"bear":347.88,"base":796.2,"bull":1279.44,"psychedelic_bull":1888.25},"weightedTP":828.08,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","_platform","_platform.delivery"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.tfr_ids_bbb","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","_platform.delivery.tfr_fusion","_platform","_platform.delivery"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":200},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":200},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":200},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":22,"totalTAM":1.1835,"totalWTD":0.968990625},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"jr141_global","indication":"jr141_mps2_global","title":"JR-141 (pabinafusp alfa) global Phase 3 topline — MPS II Hunter syndrome ex-Japan (slipped from H2 2026: CT.gov primary completion est Oct 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"_source":"JCR PR Jul 2025 (enrollment complete); ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04573023 (primary completion est 2027-10-31, updated 2026-10-02)","_confidence":"high","failTP":828.032149,"successTP":828.106309,"baseTP":828.077641,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"jr141_global","indication":"jr141_mps2_global","title":"JR-141 US BLA + EMA MAA submissions (post-Ph3 readout; Italfarmaco US/EU/LatAm partner)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":94,"_source":"JCR pipeline guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":828.056757,"successTP":828.10528,"baseTP":828.077641,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":990.01,"eeRel":0.279,"peRel":0.7248}},"4553":{"name":"Towa Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"Japan generics: 500+ drugs; FY25 net sales JPY 259.6B (+13.9%); op profit +31.7% margin 8.96%; EPS JPY 386 div JPY 70; FY26 guide +7.9%; MCap JPY 180B","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":49.23,"netCashLocal":15000,"cashPS":304.6923,"tps":{"mega_bear":7611.06,"bear":9565.66,"base":11658.68,"bull":15020.95,"psychedelic_bull":18154.06},"weightedTP":11691.97,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.japan_generics","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":25,"totalWTD":25},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"towa_generics","indication":"towa_franchise","title":"Towa H1 FY 2027 results (Nov 2026 reporting) + biosimilars expansion update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.towayakuhin.co.jp/english/assets/2025en.pdf","_confidence":"high","failTP":9835.37744,"successTP":14069.309,"baseTP":11691.97,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":1742,"lenses":{"comparable":21404.72,"peRel":0.6372}},"4555":{"name":"Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Japan generics top-3 | FY25 JPY 189B (+6.88%) | Major Japanese generics manufacturer (oral solids + injectables); aging Japan + government generic-promotion policy tailwind","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":115.49,"netCashLocal":-76000,"cashPS":-658.0656,"tps":{"mega_bear":727.34,"bear":1311.8,"base":2043.47,"bull":3238.38,"psychedelic_bull":5195.26},"weightedTP":2227.9,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.japan_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.japan_generics","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 15, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"japan_generics","indication":"sawai_div","title":"REPORTED (routine disclosure): Sawai Group FY ended 31-Mar-2026 annual results released on the normal reporting calendar. Figures were NOT re-derived at this review -- flagged here only because the marker had gone overdue. No valuation consequence: the asset is a commercial diversified bucket with pos/apr pinned at 100","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Sawai IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Sawai Group FY25 final results (FYE Mar 2026) released on scheduled mid-May 2026 date.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.sawai.co.jp/en/ir/","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":2227.89852,"successTP":2227.89852,"baseTP":2227.89852,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1270,"lenses":{"comparable":5498.62,"peRel":0.9957}},"4565":{"name":"Nxera Pharma Co., Ltd. (formerly Sosei Heptares)","subtitle":"Japanese GPCR platform (formerly Sosei Heptares) -- FY25 rev JPY 29.6B (+2.7%); restructured Nov'25 path-to-profit; FY26 guide JPY 33.8-48.8B + return to op profit; PIVLAZ JP 74% mshare; ORX750 Ph2","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":86.2,"netCashLocal":-9252,"cashPS":-107.3318,"tps":{"mega_bear":515.7,"bear":1116.02,"base":2059.68,"bull":2908.41,"psychedelic_bull":4268.12},"weightedTP":2073.92,"meta":{"areas":["cns.sleep.insomnia","cns","cns.sleep","cns.cerebrovascular.subarachnoid_hemorrhage","cns.cerebrovascular","cns.sleep.narcolepsy","_platform.gpcr_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.dora_orexin_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.endothelin_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr.orexin_2_agonist","_platform.discovery.gpcr","_platform","_platform.discovery"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":119},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":90},{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":60},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.subarachnoid_hemorrhage","purity":21},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":10},{"area":"_platform.gpcr_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":97},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":83},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":69},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.subarachnoid_hemorrhage","purity":34},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":17},{"area":"_platform.gpcr_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":94},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.subarachnoid_hemorrhage","purity":86},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":57},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":43},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":20},{"area":"_platform.gpcr_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":70,"rarePurityWtd":52,"optionality":62,"totalTAM":11.03,"totalWTD":6.8252},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-02-14","dateSort":"2025-02-14","asset":"nbi_partnerships","indication":"gpcr_partnerships","title":"REPORTED: FY24 results -- ~$70M total milestone payments (Neurocrine $35+$15M, AbbVie $10M, Centessa $4.6M ORX750)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"Nxera FY24 PR Feb 14 2025 + Globe Newswire","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-02-14 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":2073.91728,"successTP":2073.91728,"baseTP":2073.91728,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2025-11-17","dateSort":"2025-11-17","asset":"nbi_partnerships","indication":"gpcr_partnerships","title":"REPORTED: Nxera announces focused restructuring to enhance path to profitability (cost reduction; refocus on highest-value clinical + commercial programs)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"Nxera Nov 17 2025 PR + Globe Newswire","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-11-17 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":2073.91728,"successTP":2073.91728,"baseTP":2073.91728,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2025-Q4","dateSort":"2025-12-15","asset":"orx750_centessa","indication":"narcolepsy_ih","title":"REPORTED: Centessa ORX750 (now cleminorexton) Phase 2a DELIVERED in narcolepsy NT1/NT2 + IH -- statistically significant, clinically meaningful wakefulness gains (n=55); registrational program guided from Q1 2026","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"Centessa + Nxera 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1311.57853,"successTP":1599.63102,"baseTP":2073.91728,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"2026-02-13","dateSort":"2026-02-13","asset":"pivlaz","indication":"sah_japan","title":"REPORTED: FY25 results -- rev JPY 29.6B (+2.7%); core op loss JPY 352M (deeper net loss JPY 12.5B); PIVLAZ JP market share 69% -> 74% in 2025; FY26 guide JPY 33.8-48.8B + return to op profit","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"Nxera FY25 PR Feb 13 2026 + Globe Newswire + TipRanks","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-02-13 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1159.61994,"successTP":1545.87283,"baseTP":2073.91728,"swingPct":10,"successMove":-12,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"Q1 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-31","asset":"orx750_centessa","indication":"narcolepsy_ih","title":"REPORTED: Q1 2026 milestones cluster -- ORX142 $3.6M + ORX489 $4.8M development milestones from Centessa + $3M Centessa research collab milestone (total ~$11.4M Q1 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"Nxera Q1 2026 PR May 2026 + Yahoo Finance","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-03-31 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1311.57853,"successTP":1599.63102,"baseTP":2073.91728,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-24","asset":"orx750_centessa","indication":"narcolepsy_ih","title":"REPORTED: Eli Lilly COMPLETED acquisition of Centessa Jun 24 2026 (~$6.3B upfront, up to $7.8B) -- cleminorexton (ex-ORX750) royalty/milestone counterparty upgrades from a mid-cap to Lilly","type":"ma_close","fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":48,"success_apr":78,"failTP":1782.87395,"successTP":2340.55189,"baseTP":2073.91728,"swingPct":16,"successMove":8,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"orx750_centessa","indication":"narcolepsy_ih","title":"RESOLVED 2025-12-15 (duplicate): ORX750 Phase 2 initial narcolepsy/IH data -- same Ph2a readout as the REPORTED Dec 2025 catalyst; cleminorexton now in Lilly registrational development","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":80,"_source":"Centessa + Nxera pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1526.83925,"successTP":2476.58301,"baseTP":2073.91728,"swingPct":45,"successMove":19,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-15","asset":"nbi_partnerships","indication":"gpcr_partnerships","title":"FY26 results target -- guidance JPY 33.8-48.8B revenue + core operating profit JPY 7.8-22.8B (return to profitability after FY25 restructuring)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"Nxera FY26 guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2073.91728,"successTP":2073.91728,"baseTP":2073.91728,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":119.2,"lenses":{"comparable":1642.74,"eeRel":0.0741},"readouts":[{"a":"orx750_centessa","ind":"narcolepsy_ih","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","endpoint":"mwt_latency_change_min","unit":"min","src":"class","med":9.75251555,"lo":-5,"hi":30.7136382,"pBeatBest":0.0669,"bestDrug":"oveporexton (TAK-861)","bestValue":26}]},"4568":{"name":"Daiichi Sankyo","subtitle":"Enhertu JPY553B | DXd ADC gold standard | 5 ADCs in development | Merck + AstraZeneca partnerships","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1950,"netCashLocal":541000,"cashPS":277.4359,"tps":{"mega_bear":1918.43,"bear":2862.04,"base":4585.15,"bull":6892.86,"psychedelic_bull":9315.96},"weightedTP":4920.66,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.nsclc.her3","oncology.lung.sclc","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.topo1_payload.her2","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.trop2_adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.her3","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.b7h3","small_molecule.enzyme.factor_xa","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":96},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her3","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":106},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her3","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her3","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":10,"totalTAM":56.10939,"totalWTD":50.8754267},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 10 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-10","asset":"idxd","indication":"merck_adc","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-25 (MISS): I-DXd ES-SCLC BLA voluntarily WITHDRAWN before the Oct 10 PDUFA -- FDA said IDeate-Lung01 Ph2 (ORR 48.2%) does not meet accelerated-approval criteria; approval now rests on Ph3 IDeate-Lung02","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.onclive.com/view/ifinatamab-deruxtecan-bla-voluntarily-withdrawn-in-previously-treated-extensive-stage-sclc","_confidence":"high","failTP":4920.65629,"successTP":4920.66574,"baseTP":4920.65722,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"commercial","indication":"her2","title":"HER3-DXd HERTHENA-Breast04 Ph3 enrollment progress (post Lung02 OS failure + BLA withdrawal)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.targetedonc.com/view/fda-accepts-sbla-of-t-dxd-plus-thp-in-her2-breast-cancer","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"FDA PDUFA action date for T-DXd neoadjuvant breast cancer label expansion","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved Enhertu (T-DXd + THP) for neoadjuvant HER2+ Stage II/III early breast cancer on May 15, 2026 (3 days ahead of May 18 PDUFA). DESTINY-Breast11 supported pCR improvement vs ddAC->THP control.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-two-separate-indications-fam-trastuzumab-deruxtecan-nxki-her2-positive-early-stage","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":4920.65722,"successTP":4920.65722,"baseTP":4920.65722,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-01-30","asset":"idxd","indication":"merck_adc","title":"I-DXd (ifinatamab deruxtecan, B7-H3) IDeate-Lung02 Ph3 2L relapsed SCLC readout -- dual primary ORR + OS, 540 pts, still RECRUITING; primary completion Jan 30 2028 per NCT06203210","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"clinicaltrials.gov NCT06203210 (last update 2026-08-06); IDeate-Lung01 Ph2 primary analysis, J Clin Oncol 2026","_sourceUrl":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06203210","_note":"SLIPPED, not resolved. The config carried an H2 2026 date that came due with no readout. IDeate-Lung02 is a global randomized open-label Ph3 (n~540, 1:1 I-DXd 12mg/kg q3w vs physician's choice of topotecan/amrubicin/lurbinectedin) and clinicaltrials.gov still shows RECRUITING with primary completion Jan 30 2028 (overall completion Dec 1 2029). Date rolled to the registry primary-completion date; no assumption change. Supporting Ph2: IDeate-Lung01 primary analysis (JCO 2026) confirmed ORR 48.2% at the 12mg/kg dose (n=137) in previously treated ES-SCLC; FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation granted Aug 2025.","failTP":4920.65569,"successTP":4920.66768,"baseTP":4920.65722,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":6950,"lenses":{"comparable":3568.39,"eeRel":0.7821,"peRel":1.0966}},"4569":{"name":"KYORIN Holdings, Inc.","subtitle":"Japan mid-cap specialty pharma | TTM ~$853M / JPY 125B | Respiratory + urology + anti-infective branded Rx portfolio; KW-031 + KW-7902 pipeline; consistent dividend payer","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":58,"netCashLocal":-11300,"cashPS":-194.8276,"tps":{"mega_bear":499.14,"bear":856.9,"base":1262.07,"bull":2055.17,"psychedelic_bull":3322.41},"weightedTP":1404.53,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.japan_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.japan_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 15, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"kyorin_branded","indication":"kyorin_div","title":"REPORTED (routine disclosure): Kyorin FY ended 31-Mar-2026 annual results released on the normal reporting calendar. Figures were NOT re-derived at this review -- flagged here only because the marker had gone overdue. No valuation consequence: the asset is a commercial diversified bucket with pos/apr pinned at 100","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Kyorin IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"KYORIN Holdings FY25 final results (FYE Mar 2026) released on schedule.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.kyorin-pharm.co.jp/en/ir/","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":1404.52586,"successTP":1404.52586,"baseTP":1404.52586,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":850,"lenses":{"comparable":7996.25,"peRel":0.8787}},"4578":{"name":"Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Japan pharma + nutraceuticals; Abilify LAI + Rexulti + Jynarque ADPKD + Lonsurf; sibeprenlimab (VOYXACT) IgAN -- FDA accelerated approval Nov 2025, traditional sBLA YE2026","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":527,"netCashLocal":800000,"cashPS":1518.0266,"tps":{"mega_bear":7054.08,"bear":10322.58,"base":15479.13,"bull":23753.32,"psychedelic_bull":40417.46},"weightedTP":16249.24,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.neurodegeneration","nephrology.cystic.adpkd","nephrology","nephrology.cystic","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology.gi.gastric","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology.glomerular"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.atypical_antipsychotic","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.vasopressin_v2_antagonist","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.thymidine_analog","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_april","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":67},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":51},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":32},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":32},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":20},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":14},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":10},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":7},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":67},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":51},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":32},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":32},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":20},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":14},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":10},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":7},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":59},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":49},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":46},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":36},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":23},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":17},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":13},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":9},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":9,"rarePurityWtd":9,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":95.454,"totalWTD":95.454},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-11-25","dateSort":"2025-11-25","asset":"sibeprenlimab","indication":"iga_nephropathy","title":"REPORTED 2025-11-25: Sibeprenlimab (VOYXACT) ENVISION Ph3 IgAN — positive interim → FDA accelerated approval (Nov 25 2025)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.otsuka-us.com/news/otsuka-receives-fda-accelerated-approval-voyxactr-sibeprenlimab-szsi-reduction-proteinuria","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Positive interim Phase 3 VISIONARY data (preserved eGFR +0.7 vs decline in placebo over 12mo) led to FDA accelerated approval of VOYXACT (sibeprenlimab-szsi) on Nov 25 2025 for IgA nephropathy proteinuria reduction. Jun 5 2026 VISIONARY 24-mo eGFR data positive (+0.7 vs -4.8 placebo), supporting rolling sBLA for traditional approval (targeted YE2026). Asset now commercial in US: pos/apr set to 100 across scenarios, scenario spread carried by pen.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":16249.241,"successTP":16249.241,"baseTP":16249.241,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"rexulti","indication":"ad_agitation","title":"REPORTED 2026-09: Rexulti AD-agitation growth CONFIRMED -- partner Lundbeck reports global Rexulti sales +27% CER with the Alzheimer's-agitation indication the stated driver (>660% growth in its US prescription share since the May 2023 approval). Auvelity (AXS-05) approved into the same indication Apr 30 2026 -- competition now real but Rexulti still the incumbent","type":"launch","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/otsuka-holdings-4578-jp-rexulti-abilify-drive-2025-guidance-upward-all-eyes-on-sibeprenlimab","_confidence":"high","failTP":16249.241,"successTP":16249.241,"baseTP":16249.241,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sibeprenlimab","indication":"iga_nephropathy","title":"VOYXACT (sibeprenlimab) rolling sBLA submission for traditional IgAN approval (VISIONARY 24-mo eGFR positive Jun 2026)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.otsuka-us.com/news/otsuka-receives-fda-accelerated-approval-voyxactr-sibeprenlimab-szsi-reduction-proteinuria","_confidence":"high","failTP":16249.241,"successTP":16249.241,"baseTP":16249.241,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"abilify_family","indication":"schizophrenia","title":"Abilify Asimtufii (2-mo LAI) continued ramp + ex-US expansion -- rolled forward as a rolling franchise tracker (no assumption attached)","type":"launch","binary":false,"_source":"https://otsuka-us.com/news/fda-approves-otsuka-and-lundbecks-abilify-asimtufiir-aripiprazole-first-once-every-two-months","_confidence":"high","failTP":16249.241,"successTP":16249.241,"baseTP":16249.241,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rexulti","indication":"ad_agitation","title":"Rexulti AD-agitation share defence vs Auvelity (AXS-05, approved Apr 30 2026) -- first direct competitor in the indication; watch for pen erosion in the FY27 franchise numbers","type":"other","failTP":16249.241,"successTP":16249.241,"baseTP":16249.241,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"sibeprenlimab","indication":"iga_nephropathy","title":"VOYXACT traditional (full) FDA approval decision + Japan/EU regulatory filings — unlocks broad IgAN label + ex-US expansion","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://www.otsuka-us.com/news/otsuka-receives-fda-accelerated-approval-voyxactr-sibeprenlimab-szsi-reduction-proteinuria","_confidence":"medium","failTP":16249.241,"successTP":16249.241,"baseTP":16249.241,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":5700,"lenses":{"comparable":19320.86,"eeRel":1.2897,"peRel":1.972},"readouts":[{"a":"sibeprenlimab","ind":"iga_nephropathy","ds":"2025-11-25","area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","endpoint":"proteinuria_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":38.9584187,"lo":7.04354111,"hi":55.0815305,"pBeatBest":0.0871,"bestDrug":"sibeprenlimab","bestValue":50.2}]},"4587":{"name":"PeptiDream Inc.","subtitle":"Japanese peptide platform | FY24 JPY 46.7B (+63%), FY25 cut to JPY 18B (Dec'25; key deals shifted to FY26) | Lilly/BMS/Novartis/AbbVie/Merck KGaA partners | Internal radioligand Ph1","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":130,"netCashLocal":30000,"cashPS":230.7692,"tps":{"mega_bear":426.92,"bear":711.54,"base":1461.54,"bull":3000,"psychedelic_bull":6461.54},"weightedTP":1817.5,"meta":{"areas":["_platform.peptide_discovery","_platform","_platform.radioligand_discovery"],"modalities":["_platform.discovery.macrocyclic_discovery","_platform","_platform.discovery","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.sstr_other","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-12","asset":"pdps_platform","indication":"pdps_partnerships","title":"PeptiDream Q3 2026 results (H1 rev +8%, loss narrowed; PET +30%)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"PeptiDream IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":1817.5,"successTP":1817.5,"baseTP":1817.5,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":120,"lenses":{"comparable":1390.7}},"6472":{"name":"Bora Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"CDMO ($482M 2025 wins, +54% YoY) + GSK $250M alliance thru 2030 + 30.5% Tanvex (Bora Biologics) | FY25 NT$19B (~$580M, EPS NT$23.90) | Q1'26 TWD 4B rev","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.TW","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":103,"netCashLocal":4000,"cashPS":38.835,"tps":{"mega_bear":210.58,"bear":395.54,"base":654.98,"bull":1002.08,"psychedelic_bull":1657.99},"weightedTP":730.77,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.cdmo_services","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.specialty_pharma"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"bora_cdmo","indication":"cdmo_div","title":"Bora-GSK $250M alliance Maple Grove execution + new contract wins","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://news.biobuzz.io/2026/02/23/bora-pharmaceuticals-250m-gsk-deal-signals-the-new-shape-of-global-cdmo-partnerships/","_confidence":"high","failTP":730.767238,"successTP":730.767238,"baseTP":730.767238,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":580,"lenses":{"comparable":658.83,"peRel":0.6419}},"6535":{"name":"Lumosa Therapeutics Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"LT3001 dual reperfusion + neuroprotection acute ischemic stroke | Ph2b 202 POSITIVE Feb 2026 ISC (China n=152, +7.3% mRS 0-2) | FDA Ph3 feedback received","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.TW","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":167.49,"netCashLocal":1192.6,"cashPS":7.1204,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.87,"bear":2.06,"base":7.03,"bull":13.77,"psychedelic_bull":21.38},"weightedTP":8.38,"meta":{"areas":["cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","cns","cns.cerebrovascular"],"modalities":["peptide.drug_conjugate.unspecified","peptide","peptide.drug_conjugate"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":200},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":200},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":200},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":257,"totalTAM":2.5875,"totalWTD":0.724888125},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"lt3001","indication":"lt3001_ais","title":"LT3001 global Ph3 protocol finalization with FDA / Ph3 initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lt3001-demonstrates-functional-improvements-in-patients-with-disabling-acute-ischemic-stroke-302681212.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.8717428,"successTP":12.8630879,"baseTP":8.37865791,"swingPct":36,"successMove":16,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":43,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"lt3001","indication":"lt3001_ais","title":"LT3001 global Ph3 first patient dosed","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.lumosa.com.tw/pipeline/edit/2","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.8717428,"successTP":13.5511025,"baseTP":8.37865791,"swingPct":38,"successMove":19,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":43,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.16}},"6576":{"name":"Foresee Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"CAMCEVI 6-mo prostate (FDA'22) + 3-mo FDA Aug'25 (US launch Q4'26) + EU CHMP+ Q1'26 | Casppian Ph3 CPP hit Dec'25 -> NDA 2H'26 | Primevera $584M MMP-12 out-license","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.TW","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":157.5,"netCashLocal":800,"cashPS":5.0794,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.95,"bear":9.02,"base":15.53,"bull":23.58,"psychedelic_bull":32.85},"weightedTP":16.85,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","endocrine.gonadal.central_precocious_puberty","endocrine","endocrine.gonadal","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.gnrh.leuprolide","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.gnrh","small_molecule.enzyme.aldh2_activator","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":77},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":40},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":20},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.central_precocious_puberty","purity":6},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":95},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":6},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.central_precocious_puberty","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":82},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.central_precocious_puberty","purity":28},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":23,"rarePurityWtd":5,"optionality":23,"totalTAM":10.951,"totalWTD":8.915911},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"camcevi","indication":"camcevi_prostate","title":"CAMCEVI 3-month formulation US commercial launch","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/foresee-pharmaceuticals-announces-fda-approval-of-camcevi-etm-302541714.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.0034977,"successTP":21.0299947,"baseTP":16.8523662,"swingPct":46,"successMove":21,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":21,"daysOut":null,"materiality":78},{"date":"by YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"camcevi","indication":"camcevi_cpp","title":"Casppian Ph3 CPP NDA submission to FDA -- guided \"by year-end 2026\" (MoneyDJ; was Q3 2026)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/foresee-casppian-ph3-met-primary-302649248.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.3521393,"successTP":18.9237088,"baseTP":16.8523662,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q4 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"camcevi","indication":"camcevi_cpp","title":"CAMCEVI CPP PDUFA decision (10mo standard from YE 2026 NDA)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.foreseepharma.com/en/rd/overview","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.6770479,"successTP":18.8295994,"baseTP":16.8523662,"swingPct":37,"successMove":12,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":13,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","ratioPct":137}]},"lenses":{"comparable":16.64,"peRel":0.0302}},"6696":{"name":"Lin BioScience","subtitle":"Taiwan holdco: 46% of Belite Bio (BLTE), owner of tinlarebant -- STGD1 NDA ACCEPTED w/ PRIORITY REVIEW, PDUFA Feb 12'27; GA Ph3 Phoenix/Phoebe 27-28; SOM rebased to the 46% stake","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.TW","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":81,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":18.5185,"tps":{"mega_bear":19.88,"bear":104,"base":120.98,"bull":172.93,"psychedelic_bull":216.93},"weightedTP":115.11,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.ga"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.rbp4","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":117},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":83}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":134},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":66}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":181},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":19}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":129,"totalTAM":19.065,"totalWTD":8.32722},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_stargardt","title":"REPORTED (2026-06-12, completed): LBS-008 Tinlarebant FDA NDA rolling submission Stargardt -- Jun 12 2026 (BTD; 60-day filing review then PDUFA)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Belite Bio completed the rolling NDA submission to FDA for tinlarebant in STGD1 on 2026-06-12 (rolling initiated April 2026), under Breakthrough Therapy Designation. Application now in 60-day FDA review; PDUFA date to be assigned if accepted.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/13/3311366/0/en/Belite-Bio-Completes-Rolling-Submission-of-New-Drug-Application-to-U-S-Food-and-Drug-Administration-for-Tinlarebant-for-the-Treatment-of-Stargardt-Disease-Type-1.html","_confidence":"high","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":76.5490323,"successTP":167.115072,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":16,"successMove":9,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-11","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_stargardt","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-11: Tinlarebant STGD1 NDA ACCEPTED by FDA with PRIORITY REVIEW -- PDUFA target action date Feb 12 2027; filing based on Ph3 DRAGON (35.7% reduction in DDAF lesion growth vs placebo)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Belite Bio PR 2026-08-11 / 6-K","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/11/3343136/0/en/belite-bio-announces-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-acceptance-and-priority-review-of-new-drug-application-for-tinlarebant-for-the-treatment-of-stargardt-disease-type-1.html","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Acceptance + Priority Review is a process designation, not efficacy, so no pos/apr change was applied; fail_*=success_*=current base","failTP":80.3601421,"successTP":157.032419,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":33,"successMove":18,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_stargardt","title":"Tinlarebant EU MAA submission (Stargardt, post-FDA NDA)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":24.1696776,"successTP":42.8733,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-31,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":-34,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_stargardt","title":"Cash raise / financing announcement (pre-launch capital)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":24.1696776,"successTP":42.8733,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-19,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":-20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"Feb 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-12","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_stargardt","title":"LBS-008 Tinlarebant FDA PDUFA action date Stargardt Type 1 -- CONFIRMED Feb 12 2027 under PRIORITY REVIEW (first oral therapy; NDA accepted Aug 11 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"Belite Bio PR 2026-08-11 / 6-K (NDA acceptance + Priority Review)","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/11/3343136/0/en/belite-bio-announces-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-acceptance-and-priority-review-of-new-drug-application-for-tinlarebant-for-the-treatment-of-stargardt-disease-type-1.html","failTP":60.3024951,"successTP":172.316659,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":98,"successMove":50,"failMove":-48,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":38,"daysOut":null,"materiality":72},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-31","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_stargardt","title":"Tinlarebant Stargardt commercial launch (post Feb 12 2027 PDUFA) + PRV monetization (~$100M)","type":"launch","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":24.1696776,"successTP":42.8733,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":14,"successMove":-54,"failMove":-67,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":-58,"daysOut":null,"materiality":61},{"date":"Q4 2027","dateSort":"2027-11-30","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_stargardt","title":"Tinlarebant Stargardt EMA CHMP opinion","type":"ema_approval","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":24.1696776,"successTP":42.8733,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":14,"successMove":-57,"failMove":-71,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":-58,"daysOut":null,"materiality":65},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_ga","title":"Tinlarebant GA Ph3 Phoenix/Phoebe topline (DOMINANT BINARY for GA franchise)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_confidence":"high","failTP":94.6031739,"successTP":140.842921,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":40,"successMove":22,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-09-30","asset":"lbs_008_tinlare","indication":"tinlare_ga","title":"Tinlarebant GA BLA submission (post-Ph3 hit)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":93.8829342,"successTP":106.25846,"baseTP":115.11362,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":76.44},"readouts":[{"a":"lbs_008_tinlare","ind":"tinlare_ga","ds":"2028-03-31","area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","endpoint":"ga_growth_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":4.1992117,"lo":-7.23414947,"hi":28.7348049,"pBeatBest":0.0829,"bestDrug":"pegcetacoplan monthly","bestValue":22}]},"6826":{"name":"Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology","subtitle":"China biomaterials: HA dermal fillers (Matrifill/Janlane/Hyalumatrix) + intraocular lenses + ortho + wound + anti-adhesion; FY25 rev RMB 2.45B (-8.7%); MCap HK$13B","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":233.19,"netCashLocal":2500,"cashPS":10.7209,"tps":{"mega_bear":19.57,"bear":32.58,"base":45.81,"bull":63.06,"psychedelic_bull":80.32},"weightedTP":44.09,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.biomaterials_hyaluronic","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":6,"totalWTD":6},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"haohai_franchise","indication":"haohai_diversified","title":"Haohai FY 2026 HA fillers rebound + ophth+ortho update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0320/2026032001802.pdf","_confidence":"high","failTP":33.4531587,"successTP":57.6895437,"baseTP":44.0876829,"swingPct":17,"successMove":9,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23}],"salesM2025":342,"lenses":{"comparable":46.95,"peRel":0.1479}},"6855":{"name":"Ascentage Pharma Group International","subtitle":"Chinese onc biotech -- Olverembatinib HQP1351 (BCR-ABL T315I+ CML; FY25 $62M +80%; NRDL'd Jan'25) + Lisaftoclax APG-2575 Bcl-2 (China CLL Jul'25; 4 global Ph3) + MDM2/IAP pipeline","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":373.56,"netCashLocal":2182.8,"cashPS":5.8432,"tps":{"mega_bear":14.34,"bear":23.11,"base":35.94,"bull":52.69,"psychedelic_bull":79.74},"weightedTP":37.83,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.cml","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.all","oncology.sarcoma.gist","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","oncology.leukemia.cll","oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","oncology.leukemia.aml","oncology.myeloid.mds","oncology.myeloid","oncology.sarcoma.sts","infectious_disease.viral.hbv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl_pan","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.bcl2","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.mdm2_p53_disruptor","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.smac_mimetic"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":37},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":70},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":27},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":14},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":96},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":25},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":68,"rarePurityWtd":87,"optionality":142,"totalTAM":48.11533,"totalWTD":19.9198707},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-01-15","dateSort":"2025-01-15","asset":"olverembatinib","indication":"cml_t315i","title":"REPORTED (2025-01-15, completed): Olverembatinib all indications covered under China NRDL effective Jan 2025 -- key affordability driver behind FY25 +80% YoY","type":"pricing","binary":false,"_source":"Ascentage FY25 PR Mar 25 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-01-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":16.1004213,"successTP":22.9940415,"baseTP":37.834619,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-19,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-19,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"2025-07-10","dateSort":"2025-07-10","asset":"lisaftoclax","indication":"cll_sll_post_btk","title":"REPORTED (2025-07-10, success): Lisaftoclax (APG-2575) conditionally APPROVED by China NMPA Jul 2025 for adult CLL/SLL previously treated incl. BTKi (pivotal Ph2 APG2575CC201) -- novel Bcl-2 inhibitor; 5mo launch FY25 sales $10.1M","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"Ascentage 6-K 2025-07-10 / 2026-07-26","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2024-12-15 (legacy convention). 2026-10-09 freshness: approval date corrected Dec 2024 -> Jul 2025 per Ascentage SEC 6-Ks.","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":31.6540291,"successTP":34.4246299,"baseTP":37.834619,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"2025-12-08","dateSort":"2025-12-08","asset":"olverembatinib","indication":"ph_pos_all_1l","title":"REPORTED (2025-12-08, fail): ASH 2025: POLARIS-1 Phase 3 first data -- olverembatinib + low-intensity chemo achieves >60% best MRD-negative CR rate in newly diagnosed Ph+ ALL","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"Ascentage ASH 2025 PR + Targeted Onc","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-08 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":36.7062677,"successTP":37.2460843,"baseTP":37.834619,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2025-12-08","dateSort":"2025-12-08","asset":"olverembatinib","indication":"cml_t315i","title":"REPORTED (2025-12-08, completed): ASH 2025 olverembatinib 2L CML-CP updated data -- encouraging potential for early-line treatment (supports POLARIS-2 Ph3 design)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"Ascentage ASH 2025 + OncLive","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-08 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":16.1004213,"successTP":22.9940415,"baseTP":37.834619,"swingPct":18,"successMove":-39,"failMove":-57,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-39,"daysOut":null,"materiality":48},{"date":"2026-01-15","dateSort":"2026-01-15","asset":"olverembatinib","indication":"cml_t315i","title":"REPORTED (2026-01-15, completed): JPM Healthcare Conference 2026 -- Ascentage outlines dual-engine commercial growth strategy led by Olverembatinib + Lisaftoclax","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_source":"Ascentage JPM 2026 + AAPG PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-01-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":16.1004213,"successTP":22.9940415,"baseTP":37.834619,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-8,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-06","asset":"lisaftoclax","indication":"first_line_cll","title":"Lisaftoclax GLORA-2 1L CLL Ph3 + GLORA-3 1L AML elderly Ph3 enrollment update; potential interim look at ASH 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"Ascentage Ph3 portfolio + ASH 2026 calendar","_confidence":"medium","failTP":36.8014581,"successTP":37.2992829,"baseTP":37.834619,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"ASH Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-08","asset":"olverembatinib","indication":"cml_t315i","title":"POLARIS-2 CML-CP Phase 3 first data expected at ASH 2026 (333 pts vs bosutinib; ASH 2025 already showed updated 2L CML-CP data supporting early-line potential)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Ascentage POLARIS-2 ClinicalTrials.gov + ASH 2025 update","_confidence":"medium","_note":"2026-10-09 freshness: H1-26 interim (ascentage.com) says POLARIS-2 (~440 pts, 2:1 vs bosutinib) is STILL ENROLLING -- a first Ph3 efficacy readout at ASH 2026 looks unlikely; treat as an ASH update and expect roll to 2027+ if no data in Dec.","failTP":19.4002521,"successTP":43.8553367,"baseTP":37.834619,"swingPct":65,"successMove":16,"failMove":-49,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":48},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"olverembatinib","indication":"cml_t315i","title":"Olverembatinib global Ph3 enrollment progress -- POLARIS-1 (Ph+ ALL) / POLARIS-2 (CML-CP) / POLARIS-3 (SDH-deficient GIST), all enrolling per H1 2026; title corrected (no PIONEER trial) + ROLLED to FY26 results","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"Ascentage pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_note":"2026-10-09 freshness: H1-26 interim (ascentage.com) says POLARIS-2 (~440 pts, 2:1 vs bosutinib) is STILL ENROLLING -- a first Ph3 efficacy readout at ASH 2026 looks unlikely; treat as an ASH update and expect roll to 2027+ if no data in Dec.","failTP":16.1004213,"successTP":22.9940415,"baseTP":37.834619,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-12,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":72,"lenses":{"comparable":39.07}},"6887":{"name":"Sunshine Lake Pharma (HEC Group)","subtitle":"HEC Group subsidiary: oseltamivir (Kewei, 74% of FY25 rev) + insulins + encofosbuvir HCV | FY25 rev RMB 4.82B, profit RMB 272M | H1'26 rev -44.5%, loss RMB 604M | net debt ~RMB 3.7B","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":574.53,"netCashLocal":-4085.4,"cashPS":-7.1109,"tps":{"mega_bear":21.39,"bear":30.96,"base":39.71,"bull":52.36,"psychedelic_bull":65.67},"weightedTP":40.19,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hcv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antiviral.hcv_pangenotypic","small_molecule","small_molecule.antiviral","_diversified.mixed.antivirals_diversified","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":157},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":43},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":21}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":157},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":43},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":21}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":136},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":64},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":32}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":20.619,"totalWTD":20.619},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"encofosbuvir","indication":"encofosbuvir_hcv","title":"Encofosbuvir FY 2026 China launch ramp + profitability sustainability -- H1'26 already a RMB 604M loss (HKEX interim Aug 31 2026); FY26 profitability unlikely","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/hkg/6887/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":34.1984406,"successTP":46.7955186,"baseTP":40.1937774,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":610,"lenses":{"comparable":32.9,"eeRel":0.1787}},"6919":{"name":"Caliway Biopharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"CBL-514 adipocyte-apoptosis injectable | SUPREME-01 Ph3 abdominal fat (320pt) enrolling since Sep'26, PCD Jul'27 | Dercum's Ph2 hit primary (Sep'26) | SUPREME-02 Ph3 | GLP-1 combo Ph2 IND","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.TW","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":1556.3,"netCashLocal":9106,"cashPS":5.8511,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.46,"bear":8.35,"base":22.06,"bull":36.16,"psychedelic_bull":47.98},"weightedTP":23.89,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.aesthetics.filler","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","metabolic_genetic.adipose.dercum","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.adipose"],"modalities":["small_molecule.pleiotropic.adipocyte_apoptosis","small_molecule","small_molecule.pleiotropic"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":190},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":95},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose.dercum","purity":10},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":189},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":94},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose.dercum","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":132},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose.dercum","purity":68},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":66},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose","purity":34}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":6,"optionality":148,"totalTAM":23.49625,"totalWTD":9.47752188},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 21 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-21","asset":"cbl514","indication":"cbl514_dercums","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-21: CBL-514 randomized placebo-controlled Ph2 in Dercum's disease (CBL-0202DD, NCT06303570) MET primary endpoint -- pain -3.1 vs -1.9 placebo (p=0.005 FAS; -3.1 vs -1.4, p=0.0002 PP); secondaries at wk 16/24 p<=0.0017; mild-moderate injection-site AEs only","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caliway-announces-positive-phase-2-results-of-cbl-514-in-dercums-disease-achieving-primary-endpoint-with-statistically-significant-and-sustained-pain-reduction-302886906.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":17.1233841,"successTP":26.4515051,"baseTP":23.8928445,"swingPct":39,"successMove":11,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"cbl514","indication":"cbl514_submental","title":"CBL-514 submental fat Ph3 initiation (Kybella comparator)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.caliwaybiopharma.com/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":22.9630285,"successTP":25.428136,"baseTP":23.8928445,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Sep 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"cbl514","indication":"cbl514_abdominal","title":"EASD 2026 oral presentation -- CBL-514 MRI-measured L2-L3 visceral adipose tissue reduction alongside subcutaneous fat (first visceral-fat dataset; potential metabolic positioning beyond aesthetics)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caliways-cbl-514-combination-therapy-cleared-by-us-fda-for-phase-2-trial-pivotal-phase-3-trial-supreme-01-initiates-enrollment-302859956.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.1304311,"successTP":28.7103856,"baseTP":23.8928445,"swingPct":37,"successMove":17,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":40},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cbl514","indication":"cbl514_abdominal","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-25: U.S. FDA CLEARED the IND for CBL-0201WR, a Phase 2 trial of CBL-514 in combination with tirzepatide (Zepbound) -- the GLP-1 combination programme moves from concept to cleared Ph2","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caliways-cbl-514-combination-therapy-cleared-by-us-fda-for-phase-2-trial-pivotal-phase-3-trial-supreme-01-initiates-enrollment-302859956.html","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"IND clearance for the CBL-514 + tirzepatide Ph2 achieved (company PR, 2026-08-25). Catalyst legs RE-CUT 2026-08-26: they previously read success_pos 92 / fail_pos 80 against a live base of 65, which would have re-rated the SUPREME-01 pivotal's probability of technical success by up to 27 points on the strength of a regulatory filing acceptance. An IND clearance is a non-binary administrative milestone -- it says the FDA will let the trial start, not that the drug works -- so both legs now sit at the live base (pos 65 / apr 75) and the catalyst correctly carries no assumption move in either direction. Value from the combination programme should arrive with the Ph2 data, on a catalyst written for that readout.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":18.1304311,"successTP":28.7103856,"baseTP":23.8928445,"swingPct":13,"successMove":6,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Q3 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"cbl514","indication":"cbl514_abdominal","title":"SUPREME-01 Ph3 topline (CBL-514 abdominal SC fat, 320pt pivotal) -- SLIPPED from Q4 2026: enrolment only began Sep 2026 after a protocol amendment; ClinicalTrials.gov primary completion Jul 2027","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07140939","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.1313838,"successTP":32.3101385,"baseTP":23.8928445,"swingPct":88,"successMove":35,"failMove":-53,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":47},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"cbl514","indication":"cbl514_abdominal","title":"SUPREME-02 Ph3 topline (second global pivotal, NCT07526974, 320pt) -- SLIPPED from H1 2027: not yet recruiting, start Oct 2026, primary completion Aug 2027","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07526974","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.5395641,"successTP":32.8539658,"baseTP":23.8928445,"swingPct":90,"successMove":38,"failMove":-52,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":47}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":31.14}},"6990":{"name":"Kelun-Biotech","subtitle":"OptiDC ADC platform | Sac-TMT TROP2 ADC (4 China approvals) | Merck $10B+ deal | 30+ pipeline programs","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":250,"netCashLocal":5400,"cashPS":21.6,"tps":{"mega_bear":60.33,"bear":107.85,"base":260.16,"bull":436.24,"psychedelic_bull":637.17},"weightedTP":290.19,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.tnbc","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","_platform.adc_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.topo1_payload.trop2_adc","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.her2","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.cldn18_2","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.nectin4","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.optidc_platform","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":7},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":3},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":1},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":32,"rarePurityWtd":52,"optionality":64,"totalTAM":17.9788,"totalWTD":10.9561555},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"platform","indication":"next_gen","title":"SKB105 (ITGB6-ADC) Phase 1/2 trial initiation","type":"phase1_start","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. NMPA IND approved Jan 5 2026 (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kelun-biotech-receives-investigational-new-drug-approval-for-itgb6-targeted-adc-skb105-from-the-nmpa-302652410.html); first-patient-dosed not yet publicly announced. Ex-China rights licensed to Crescent Biopharma Dec 2025.","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":20,"success_apr":25,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://en.kelun-biotech.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"SKB105 (ITGB6-ADC) NMPA IND approved Jan 5, 2026; trial commencement anticipated Q2 2026 but first-patient-dosed not yet publicly announced.","failTP":290.189606,"successTP":290.189606,"baseTP":290.189606,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-01","asset":"skb315","indication":"cldn","title":"SKB315 CLDN18.2 ADC pivotal data","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Only Phase 1 dose-escalation data (advanced solid tumors incl. GC/GEJC) presented at ESMO Oct 2025; Ph1b ongoing and 1L GC/GEJC combo (+ tagitanlimab) IND cleared -- no pivotal/registrational readout yet. Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kelun-biotech-announced-2025-annual-results-multiple-products-successfully-launched-with-tiered-pipeline-ready-for-take-off-302722700.html","failTP":290.120387,"successTP":290.245853,"baseTP":290.189606,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"merck_pipe","indication":"merck_adc","title":"Merck ADC partnership milestones progression","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"failTP":290.18087,"successTP":290.229184,"baseTP":290.189606,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":13,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":350,"lenses":{"comparable":142.44,"peRel":0.0341}},"9606":{"name":"Duality Biotherapeutics","subtitle":"China ADC specialist: DB-1303/BNT323 (trastuzumab pamirtecan) HER2 ADC -- POSITIVE Ph3 China PFS interim Sep'25 + Global DYNASTY-Breast02; DB-1311 B7-H3 + DB-1305 TROP2; MCap HK$25.6B","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":90,"netCashLocal":3000,"cashPS":33.3333,"tps":{"mega_bear":28.07,"bear":31.9,"base":38.56,"bull":46.38,"psychedelic_bull":53.66},"weightedTP":38.58,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.lung","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.topo1_payload.her2","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.b7h3","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.trop2"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":10}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":82,"totalTAM":10.79164,"totalWTD":5.91362908},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"db_1303","indication":"db1303_breast","title":"DB-1303 (BNT323) Ph3 final analysis HER2+ breast + DYNASTY-Breast02 HER2-low updates (post Sep'25 positive China interim)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":42,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/biontech-backing-powers-adc-specialist-dualitybio-toward-200m-hong-kong-ipo","_confidence":"high","failTP":30.6437563,"successTP":40.8336849,"baseTP":38.5832567,"swingPct":27,"successMove":6,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":42.48}},"9969":{"name":"InnoCare Pharma","subtitle":"China BTK leader (orelabrutinib NRDL 1L CLL/SLL + tafasitamab CD19 DLBCL) | NEW TYK2 derm franchise: ICP-488 Ph3 psoriasis + ICP-332 Ph3 atopic dermatitis both MET Jul'26 | 1st FY profit FY25","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":2127,"netCashLocal":8000,"cashPS":3.7612,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.87,"bear":7.78,"base":9.8,"bull":12.19,"psychedelic_bull":14.35},"weightedTP":9.93,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.btk","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd19","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.bcl2","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","small_molecule.kinase.tyk2_allosteric","small_molecule.kinase.tyk2"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":64},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":44},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":24},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":20},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":15},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":62},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":44},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":23},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":19},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":15},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":42},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":36},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":25},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":25},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":11},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":10}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":29,"totalTAM":70.2492,"totalWTD":54.2688567},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-28","asset":"orelabrutinib","indication":"orela_cll","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-28 (NOT MODELLED): NMPA ACCEPTED the orelabrutinib NDA in primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) -- an autoimmune label expansion beyond the modelled 1L CLL/SLL indication; approval decision expected 2027","type":"nda_submission","failTP":6.24461024,"successTP":7.07279821,"baseTP":9.92869909,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-6,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"2026-07-15","dateSort":"2026-07-15","asset":"icp332","indication":"icp332_ad","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-15: Soficitinib (ICP-332) TYK2-JH1 Ph3 China atopic dermatitis MET primary endpoint -> advancing to NMPA filing","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":83,"success_apr":89,"_outcome":"success","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/15/3327622/0/en/InnoCare-Announces-Phase-III-Study-Results-of-TYK2-Inhibitor-Soficitinib-Meet-Primary-Endpoint-in-Patients-with-Atomic-Dermatitis.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.10539006,"successTP":10.1522002,"baseTP":9.92869909,"swingPct":10,"successMove":2,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":83,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"2026-07-27","dateSort":"2026-07-27","asset":"icp488","indication":"icp488_pso","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-27: Fadeucravacitinib (ICP-488) TYK2 Ph3 China plaque psoriasis MET primary endpoint + multiple secondaries; numeric data at a future congress","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_outcome":"success","_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/innocares-tyk2-inhibitor-fadeucravacitinib-icp-488-meets-primary-endpoint-in-phase-iii-psoriasis-study","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.14448845,"successTP":10.4002647,"baseTP":9.92869909,"swingPct":23,"successMove":5,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"mesutoclax","indication":"mesu_cll","title":"Mesutoclax (ICP-248) BCL2 Ph2/3 China CLL/AML pivotal readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.innocarepharma.com/en/news/activity/en020260325-InnoCare-2025-Annual-Results","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.89846022,"successTP":9.94540336,"baseTP":9.92869909,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"icp488","indication":"icp488_pso","title":"ICP-488 NMPA NDA submission (plaque psoriasis) + full Ph3 dataset at a dermatology congress","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":94,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.13158103,"successTP":10.506296,"baseTP":9.92869909,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"icp332","indication":"icp332_ad","title":"ICP-332 NMPA NDA submission (atopic dermatitis); vitiligo Ph3 start decision","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":68,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.54586913,"successTP":10.1975636,"baseTP":9.92869909,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":74,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"orelabrutinib","indication":"orela_cll","title":"Orelabrutinib ITP approval decision (NMPA) -- would be the first autoimmune indication for the BTK franchise; the indication has no entry in this config, so it contributes zero value today","type":"regulatory","failTP":6.24461024,"successTP":7.07279821,"baseTP":9.92869909,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-14,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":170,"lenses":{"comparable":9.89,"eeRel":0.5622,"peRel":0.9982},"readouts":[{"a":"icp332","ind":"icp332_ad","ds":"2026-07-15","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":48.6294919,"lo":3.5753525,"hi":88.7530299,"pBeatBest":0.0691,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"9995":{"name":"RemeGen","subtitle":"China HER2 ADC + BLyS/APRIL: RC48 disitamab vedotin (gastric/urothelial/HER2+/HER2-low breast); telitacicept SLE/MG/IgAN/Sjogren; FY25 prod rev RMB 2.31B +35.8%","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":562.2,"netCashLocal":5407,"cashPS":9.6176,"tps":{"mega_bear":41.68,"bear":59.06,"base":77.09,"bull":101.96,"psychedelic_bull":127.67},"weightedTP":80.47,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.her2","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.blys_april","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_vegf","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":13},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":8},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":44},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":23},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":9},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":72},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":20},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":11},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":6}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":45,"totalTAM":104.0586,"totalWTD":71.97577},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 8, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-08","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_sle","title":"REPORTED (success): Jun 2026 — China NMPA CONDITIONALLY APPROVED telitacicept in IgA nephropathy (first/only BAFF-APRIL therapy in IgAN, on Ph2 + Ph3 TELIGAN) and APPROVED it in Sjögren's disease (5th indication; first-ever regulatory approval worldwide in this indication). EU/US SLE progress still via Vor Bio ex-Greater-China Ph3s","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/REGMF/pressreleases/1023609/remegen-boosts-2025-revenue-as-telitacicept-wins-new-approvals-and-nrdl-access/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Telitacicept receives NMPA conditional approval for IgA nephropathy in China, establishing first and only BAFF/APRIL-targeting therapy in this indication.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":72.6107888,"successTP":88.2422965,"baseTP":80.4731549,"swingPct":10,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":450,"lenses":{"comparable":124.14,"eeRel":1.7308,"peRel":3.3469}},"140410":{"name":"Mezzion Pharma","subtitle":"Korean cardio: JURVIGO udenafil PDE5 Ph3 FUEL-2 SVHD/Fontan ~50% enrolled Jul'25 (peak VO2 26-wk); US patent ext; FDA 1 trial; $20M+May'26; ADPKD pre-IND; MCap KRW 2.16T","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":30.39,"netCashLocal":50000,"cashPS":1645.2781,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":8278.93,"base":27584,"bull":43948.54,"psychedelic_bull":55224.48},"weightedTP":23965.61,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","nephrology.cystic.adpkd","nephrology","nephrology.cystic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.pde5_cardiac","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":140},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":70},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":60},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":30}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":167},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":84},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":33},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":16}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":191},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":95},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":9},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":5}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":82,"totalTAM":22.05,"totalWTD":12.10284},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"udenafil_jurvigo","indication":"jurvigo_fontan_svhd","title":"JURVIGO Ph3 FUEL-2 Fontan SVHD topline readout (final pivotal)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":32,"fail_apr":42,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://mezzion.com/news/mezzion-pharma-receives-clear-fda-path-forward-for-the-approval-of-udenafil-for-single-ventricle-heart-disease","_confidence":"high","failTP":1981.84621,"successTP":42107.3792,"baseTP":23965.6109,"swingPct":168,"successMove":76,"failMove":-92,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":39,"daysOut":null,"materiality":98}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":19458.93}},"145020":{"name":"Hugel, Inc.","subtitle":"Korean aesthetic leader -- Botulax/Letybo botulinum toxin (KRW 234B FY25 +20%) + HA filler + cosmetics. Letybo US (FDA Feb 2024) + EU + China. FY25 KRW 400B+ revenue","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":10.8,"netCashLocal":577876,"cashPS":53507.037,"tps":{"mega_bear":110584.66,"bear":129610.54,"base":167662.29,"bull":205714.04,"psychedelic_bull":281817.54},"weightedTP":170516.17,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","cns","cns.movement","dermatology.aesthetics.filler","_established_products.korea_aesthetic","_established_products"],"modalities":["biological_extract.botulinum.toxin_type_a","biological_extract","biological_extract.botulinum","aesthetic_or_other.filler.hyaluronic","aesthetic_or_other","aesthetic_or_other.filler","_diversified.branded.aesthetic_franchise_kr","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":103},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":98},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":92},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":5},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.korea_aesthetic","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":105},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":99},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":93},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":2},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.korea_aesthetic","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":123},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":90},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":56},{"area":"_established_products.korea_aesthetic","purity":20},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":1},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1,"totalTAM":16.244,"totalWTD":16.01664},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"letybo_botulax","indication":"aesthetic_neurotoxin","title":"Letybo US Q3 2026 print -- Sep 21 2026 switch of BENEV from distributor to CSO (Hugel takes pricing/marketing/customer data; full direct sales from mid-2027); ~KRW 10.4B Benev inventory buyback reverses Q3 US revenue","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_note":"2026-09-23: H1'26 revenue KRW 254.5B (+27%), Americas >2x YoY. Q3 US revenue expected negative on the Benev inventory buyback (press, Sep 21 2026); recovery expected Q4. Target US share 5% 2026 / 10% 2028 / 14% 2030.","_source":"https://www.medicopharma.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=69591","_confidence":"medium","failTP":170516.169,"successTP":170516.169,"baseTP":170516.169,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"letybo_botulax","indication":"therapeutic_neurotoxin","title":"Therapeutic indications expansion -- cervical dystonia / spasticity / glabellar lines US LCM","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"_source":"Hugel pipeline","_confidence":"low","failTP":170516.169,"successTP":170516.169,"baseTP":170516.169,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":305,"lenses":{"comparable":220262.6,"eeRel":3.1789}},"185750":{"name":"Chong Kun Dang Pharmaceutical Corp.","subtitle":"Top-10 Korean pharma | TTM ~$1.19B | Q1 2026 KRW 447.7B (+12%) op profit +37% | Branded Rx (DM/onc/CNS) + CKD-510 HDAC6 Novartis-partnered ($1.7B+ milestones; AF Ph3 ongoing) | biosimilars + exports","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":13.18,"netCashLocal":-83000,"cashPS":-6297.4203,"tps":{"mega_bear":48330.8,"bear":87215.48,"base":206145.68,"bull":392033.38,"psychedelic_bull":813125.95},"weightedTP":241995.45,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.korea_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.korea_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.mixed.biosimilars_pipeline","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-13","asset":"ckd_biosimilar_pipeline","indication":"ckd_pipeline","title":"Chong Kun Dang Q3 2026 + CKD-510 Novartis Ph2 AFib progress (concludes ~2027)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CKD IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":241995.448,"successTP":241995.448,"baseTP":241995.448,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1000,"lenses":{"comparable":463896.18}},"196170":{"name":"Alteogen","subtitle":"ALT-B4 SC enabling platform: Merck Keytruda SC + Daiichi Enhertu + AZ $1.35B + GSK Tesaro + Biogen Q1'26 new deals; Q1'26 rev KRW 71.6B -15% (AZ base effect); Halozyme IP overhang; MCap KRW 20.7T","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":53.53,"netCashLocal":200000,"cashPS":3736.2227,"tps":{"mega_bear":24325.12,"bear":68158.72,"base":122252.94,"bull":179010.77,"psychedelic_bull":233183.4},"weightedTP":112951.21,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.hyaluronidase","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":10,"totalWTD":10},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"alt_b4_platform","indication":"altb4_oncology_sc","title":"Halozyme patent litigation resolution + 2026 option deal license call","type":"milestone","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/astrazeneca-signs-135b-alteogen-deal-subcutaneous-cancer-drugs-despite-merck-halozyme-patent","_confidence":"high","failTP":64189.6018,"successTP":172469.379,"baseTP":112951.205,"swingPct":29,"successMove":16,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":145,"lenses":{"comparable":62139.09}},"207940":{"name":"Samsung Biologics","subtitle":"Pure-play CDMO (post-Nov 25 biosimilar spin) going multi-modality: CHF1.46B all-cash tender for PolyPeptide (peptides, Sep 15-Oct 12 26); FY26 guide 15-20% growth; Plant 5/6 to 1.325M L","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":48.56,"netCashLocal":2282900,"cashPS":47011.944,"tps":{"mega_bear":725785.66,"bear":916254.15,"base":998031.51,"bull":1260596.54,"psychedelic_bull":1379610.3},"weightedTP":1065770.04,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.biomanufacturing","_platform","_platform.cdmo","_platform.cdmo.peptide"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":31.5,"totalWTD":31.5},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 12 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-12","asset":"polypeptide_cdmo","indication":"peptide_cdmo","title":"PolyPeptide Group AG all-cash tender offer -- CHF 44.31/sh net (~CHF 1.46B equity value, 40% premium to the Apr 10 2026 unaffected price); prospectus published Aug 31 2026 via Samsung Peptide AG, main offer period Sep 15 - Oct 12 2026. Adds peptide (SPPS) CDMO capacity across the US, Europe and India","type":"m_and_a","binary":true,"fail_pos":95,"fail_apr":95,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Samsung Biologics PR 2026-08-31 (PR Newswire) + prior all-cash offer announcement","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/samsung-biologics-publishes-prospectus-for-polypeptide-public-tender-offer-302864574.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":1050025.49,"successTP":1075459.32,"baseTP":1065770.04,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Nov 17, 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-17","asset":"polypeptide_cdmo","indication":"peptide_cdmo","title":"KRW 3.0T shareholder rights offering payment -- 2.27M new shares @ KRW 1,322,000 (record date Oct 6, subscription Nov 9-10, listing Nov 30); KRW 2.7062T earmarked for PolyPeptide","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.mt.co.kr/thebio/2026/08/28/2026082807565541716","_confidence":"high","failTP":1055945.24,"successTP":1075459.32,"baseTP":1065770.04,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cdmo_franchise","indication":"samsung_cdmo","title":"Samsung Biologics FY 2026 revenue + Plant 5 ramp execution","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://samsungbiologics.com/media/company-news/samsung-biologics-reports-second-quarter-2025-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":928314.108,"successTP":1182725.46,"baseTP":1065770.04,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":3400,"lenses":{"comparable":1067465.93}},"226950":{"name":"OliX Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Korean RNAi: OLX75016 MARC1-targeting GalNAc-siRNA -- Lilly $660M Feb'25 (Ph1 Australia; Lilly takes over post-Ph1) MASH+cardiometabolic; OLX101A scar + OLX301A AMD; MCap KRW 3.77T","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":20.1,"netCashLocal":330000,"cashPS":16417.9104,"tps":{"mega_bear":12858.99,"bear":16630.81,"base":26937.63,"bull":47207.27,"psychedelic_bull":67498.81},"weightedTP":28060.43,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","dermatology.aesthetics.scar","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.galnac","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":139},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":70},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":56},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":28},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.scar","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":138},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":69},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":53},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":27},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.scar","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.scar","purity":120},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":78},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":60},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":39},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":384,"totalTAM":34.214,"totalWTD":7.062963},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"olx75016_lilly","indication":"olx75016_mash","title":"OLX75016 Ph1 MAD readout + Lilly milestone progression (post Feb'25 deal)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=26559","_confidence":"high","failTP":18446.8715,"successTP":42390.8125,"baseTP":28060.4258,"swingPct":59,"successMove":36,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":26108.51},"readouts":[{"a":"olx75016_lilly","ind":"olx75016_mash","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":33.9926349,"lo":5.31781681,"hi":61.1074819,"pBeatBest":0.2142,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"290650":{"name":"L&C Bio","subtitle":"Korean tissue regen biomaterials: human tissue + medical device + cosmetics; FY24 rev KRW 72B (+9.35%); +188% 3yr TSR; MCap KRW 849B","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":24,"netCashLocal":100000,"cashPS":4166.6667,"tps":{"mega_bear":10774.49,"bear":12670.4,"base":14929.47,"bull":18951.62,"psychedelic_bull":22766.36},"weightedTP":15365.26,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.tissue_regen_biomaterials","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1.5,"totalWTD":1.5},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"lc_bio_franchise","indication":"lc_bio_diversified","title":"L&C Bio FY 2026 tissue regen franchise growth","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/kosdaq/290650/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":13245.2065,"successTP":17780.072,"baseTP":15365.2582,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":16556.8}},"298380":{"name":"ABL Bio","subtitle":"Korean Grabody-B brain shuttle: ABL301 Sanofi-led Ph2 ONGOING in PD; PLATFORM LICENSED 3x -- Sanofi (2022), GSK Apr'25 (GBP38.5M up), Lilly Nov'25 ($40M up, up to KRW3.8T)","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":88.32,"netCashLocal":131243,"cashPS":1485.9941,"tps":{"mega_bear":2114.52,"bear":4320.95,"base":8395.23,"bull":13411.48,"psychedelic_bull":19054.59},"weightedTP":8224.36,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.alpha_synuclein_bbb_shuttle","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.io_diversified"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":172},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":181},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":9}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":199},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":206,"totalTAM":9.0329,"totalWTD":2.95520136},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2025","dateSort":"2025-04-07","asset":"abl301","indication":"abl301_pd","title":"REPORTED: GSK worldwide Grabody-B BBB-shuttle licence (Apr 2025) -- GBP38.5M upfront/near-term, up to ~GBP2.075B total; antibodies + siRNA + ASO modalities for neurodegeneration","type":"partnership","fail_pos":46,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":46,"success_apr":75,"severity":"high","failTP":6209.05394,"successTP":10560.4879,"baseTP":8224.35954,"swingPct":21,"successMove":11,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"Nov 2025","dateSort":"2025-11-30","asset":"abl301","indication":"abl301_pd","title":"REPORTED: Eli Lilly Grabody-B technology-transfer + joint R&D agreement (Nov 2025) -- $40M upfront, headline value up to KRW 3.8T in milestones","type":"partnership","fail_pos":46,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":46,"success_apr":75,"severity":"high","failTP":6209.05394,"successTP":10560.4879,"baseTP":8224.35954,"swingPct":21,"successMove":11,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"abl301","indication":"abl301_pd","title":"ABL301 (SAR446159) Sanofi-led Ph2 Parkinson's topline (post-Ph1 safety confirmed Sep'25)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=28799","_confidence":"high","failTP":5130.36678,"successTP":12246.6245,"baseTP":8224.35954,"swingPct":87,"successMove":49,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":46,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3374.76}},"300199":{"name":"Hybio Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China peptide API/CDMO leader: semaglutide, tirzepatide, liraglutide ANDAs + 3SBio Mandi sema CDMO; H1'26 rev RMB 688M (+25%), NP RMB 237M; net debt ~RMB 1.76B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":883.2,"netCashLocal":-1761.7,"cashPS":-1.9947,"tps":{"mega_bear":13.43,"bear":20.75,"base":27.25,"bull":38.22,"psychedelic_bull":52.84},"weightedTP":28.68,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.glp1_anda_diversified","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":144,"totalWTD":144},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"hybio_peptide","indication":"hybio_glp1_anda","title":"Hybio FY 2026 peptide ANDA launches + Taixing mega-site capacity utilization","type":"milestone","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.marketresearchreports.com/blog/2026/04/28/worlds-top-10-peptide-active-pharmaceutical-ingredient-api-companies","_confidence":"high","failTP":21.1071433,"successTP":37.373085,"baseTP":28.6800279,"swingPct":17,"successMove":9,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"hybio_peptide","indication":"hybio_glp1_anda","title":"Semaglutide injection (weight loss) NMPA approval -- 3SBio Mandi MAH, Hybio contract developer/manufacturer (BLA accepted by CDE Jul 2 2026, 5 acceptance numbers)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-07-03/4451598.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":21.1071433,"successTP":37.373085,"baseTP":28.6800279,"swingPct":28,"successMove":15,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":50}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":24.46,"eeRel":0.1626,"peRel":0.1757}},"300204":{"name":"Staidson (Beijing) BioPharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China biologics: Sutepsen+Shutaiqing commercial; BDB-001 anti-C5a Ph3 ANCA vasculitis POSITIVE (steroid-sparing); STSP-0601 rhFXa Ph2 hemophilia A/B (no-inhibitor) +; MCap RMB 13.4B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":477.77,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":3.1396,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.14,"bear":7.85,"base":9.51,"bull":12.28,"psychedelic_bull":14.77},"weightedTP":9.4,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.biologics_commercial","_diversified","_diversified.mixed","_diversified.mixed.biologics_pipeline"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":51,"totalTAM":3.5,"totalWTD":2.316},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"staidson_pipeline","indication":"staidson_pipeline_assets","title":"BDB-001 ANCA vasculitis NDA submission + STSP-0601 rhFXa hemophilia Ph3 progression","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/STAIDSON-BEIJING-BIOPHARM-9711638/","_confidence":"low","failTP":8.82507582,"successTP":9.91897587,"baseTP":9.40463785,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7}],"salesM2025":120,"lenses":{"comparable":10.28}},"300357":{"name":"Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China allergen immunotherapy leader: Changdi dust mite sublingual drops + Changhao artemisia pollen + diagnostic kits; FY24 rev CNY 925M (+9.1%); MCap RMB 13.1B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":523,"netCashLocal":1000,"cashPS":1.912,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.16,"bear":7.64,"base":9.13,"bull":11.94,"psychedelic_bull":14.68},"weightedTP":9.4,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.hypersensitivity.allergen_immunotherapy","immunology","immunology.hypersensitivity"],"modalities":["biological_extract.allergen.slit_diversified","biological_extract","biological_extract.allergen"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.allergen_immunotherapy","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.allergen_immunotherapy","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.allergen_immunotherapy","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1.01,"totalWTD":1.01},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"wolwo_ait","indication":"wolwo_ait_franchise","title":"Wolwo FY 2026 AIT franchise growth + new product launches","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/she/300357/","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.90234147,"successTP":11.0882566,"baseTP":9.39792721,"swingPct":10,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":20.24,"eeRel":0.6221,"peRel":0.766}},"300436":{"name":"Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China HBV: TDF/ETV/3TC/ADV generics + GST-HG141 Neracorvir capsid modulator (BTD; Ph3 fully enrolled Feb'26, 578 pts); Taizhongding 3CL COVID NRDL; RMB 710M placement Aug'26","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":168.03,"netCashLocal":398.3,"cashPS":2.3704,"tps":{"mega_bear":21.38,"bear":55.59,"base":107.25,"bull":181.2,"psychedelic_bull":255.1},"weightedTP":108.14,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hbv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antiviral.hbv_nucleotide","small_molecule","small_molecule.antiviral","small_molecule.antiviral.hbv_capsid","small_molecule.antiviral.viral_3cl"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":166},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":34}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":155},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":45}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":193},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":7}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":33,"totalTAM":37.2,"totalWTD":28.0227},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"gst_hg141","indication":"gst141_hbv_cure","title":"RESOLVED 2026-02: GST-HG141 (Neracorvir) Ph3 started (first patient Jul 2025) and FULLY ENROLLED Feb 2026 (578 pts); Ph2 published Lancet eClinMed Aug 2025 -- operational, no assumption change","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://stock.10jqka.com.cn/20260204/c674551267.shtml","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"Was a phantom FY2026 forward catalyst for an event already complete (announcements 2025053, 2026004). Its old asymmetric success 88/92 vs fail 45/55 priced a data readout, not a trial start, so it was not applied.","failTP":60.6464516,"successTP":187.591732,"baseTP":108.143187,"swingPct":35,"successMove":22,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"2027 (unguided)","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"gst_hg141","indication":"gst141_hbv_cure","title":"GST-HG141 (Neracorvir) Phase 3 topline (enrollment complete Feb 2026; company has not guided a readout date -- placeholder)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-29/1225526106.PDF","_confidence":"low","failTP":19.7668368,"successTP":232.167946,"baseTP":108.143187,"swingPct":197,"successMove":115,"failMove":-82,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":32,"daysOut":null,"materiality":91}],"salesM2025":55,"lenses":{"comparable":89.84}},"300558":{"name":"Betta Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China NSCLC targeted leader: Icotinib 1G EGFR + Ensartinib ALK (adjuvant approved Sep'26) + Befotertinib 3G EGFR; H1'26 rev RMB 1.98B (+14.1%); net debt ~RMB 1.9B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":420.73,"netCashLocal":-704.3,"cashPS":-1.674,"tps":{"mega_bear":22.08,"bear":31.37,"base":42.12,"bull":59.5,"psychedelic_bull":72.5},"weightedTP":43,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","oncology.lung.nsclc.adjuvant"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.egfr","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.alk"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.adjuvant","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.adjuvant","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.adjuvant","purity":8}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":43.0875,"totalWTD":43.0875},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ensartinib","indication":"ensartinib_nsclc","title":"Ensartinib FY 2026 ALK NSCLC growth + OUS licensing progress","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.bettapharma.com/en.php/Investor/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":39.0414989,"successTP":47.2246151,"baseTP":42.9970024,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":483,"lenses":{"comparable":42.41,"eeRel":0.7035,"peRel":0.498}},"300573":{"name":"Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China ophthalmology leader: 57 ophthalmic drug approvals + low-conc atropine myopia + Zirun (cyclosporine) dry eye + 35 in NRDL; MCap RMB 17.3B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":246,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":6.0976,"tps":{"mega_bear":27.2,"bear":43.23,"base":61.27,"bull":81.17,"psychedelic_bull":99.29},"weightedTP":59.87,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.refractive.myopia_control","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.refractive","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_atropine","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","_diversified.branded.ophthalmology_legacy","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":174},{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive.myopia_control","purity":26},{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":174},{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive.myopia_control","purity":26},{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive","purity":13}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive.myopia_control","purity":104},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":96},{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive","purity":52}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":4.592,"totalWTD":4.592},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"xingqi_franchise","indication":"xingqi_diversified","title":"China VBP ophthalmic generics cycle 2026 (impact on Xingqi NRDL portfolio)","type":"pricing","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":33.3193284,"successTP":42.9885743,"baseTP":59.8712851,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-14,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"xingqi_atropine","indication":"atropine_myopia","title":"Atropine myopia control sales ramp update + NMPA pediatric label expansion. ROLLED from 2026-08-31: the H1 2026 interim figures were not retrievable from available sources at review (H1 2025 comparator: revenue CNY 1,162.7M, net income CNY 334.8M). The base label -- Xingqi Meioupin atropine sulfate eye drops for myopia progression in children aged 6-12, -1.00D to -4.00D -- is already NMPA-approved; the open question is the ramp and any label broadening. No assumption change (asset is commercial, pos/apr 100)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":24.205979,"successTP":32.2909787,"baseTP":59.8712851,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-14,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xingqi_atropine","indication":"atropine_myopia","title":"Xingqi FY 2026 low-conc atropine myopia ramp + new ophth launches","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://news.futunn.com/en/post/46361077/shenyang-xingqi-pharmaceutical-300573-the-leader-in-ophthalmic-drugs-with","_confidence":"high","failTP":49.5896933,"successTP":71.3964857,"baseTP":59.8712851,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"xingqi_franchise","indication":"xingqi_diversified","title":"Shenyang Xingqi FY26 annual report + FY27 guide (atropine ramp + NRDL franchise)","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":33.3193284,"successTP":42.9885743,"baseTP":59.8712851,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-6,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"xingqi_atropine","indication":"atropine_myopia","title":"Low-conc atropine ex-China licensing deal (Japan/Korea/SEA partner) — optionality","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":24.205979,"successTP":32.2909787,"baseTP":59.8712851,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-18,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":400,"lenses":{"comparable":39.94,"eeRel":0.6894,"peRel":0.9164}},"300723":{"name":"ApicHope Pharmaceutical Group","subtitle":"China pediatric + chronic disease pharma: Fuganlin oral liquid + clindamycin; 9M'25 rev CNY 814M (-34.35% YoY) + NET LOSS CNY -136M -- TURNAROUND CHALLENGE; MCap RMB 16.5B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":449,"netCashLocal":1200,"cashPS":2.6726,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.45,"bear":9.08,"base":10.79,"bull":13.28,"psychedelic_bull":15.51},"weightedTP":10.52,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.pediatric_chronic","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":5.2568,"totalWTD":5.2568},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"apichope_franchise","indication":"apichope_diversified","title":"ApicHope FY 2026 pediatric + chronic franchise growth","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/she/300723/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.25897417,"successTP":12.1997346,"baseTP":10.5207122,"swingPct":8,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":130,"lenses":{"comparable":11.32,"peRel":0.9825}},"300759":{"name":"Pharmaron Beijing","subtitle":"China CRO+CDMO leader (labs 60% + CMC 22% + clinical 15% + biologics/CGT 3%): FY25 rev RMB 14.1B +14.8%, non-IFRS NP RMB 1.82B +13%; Top 20 pharma rev +29%; FY26 guide 12-18%; MCap RMB ~50B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":1110,"netCashLocal":4500,"cashPS":4.0541,"tps":{"mega_bear":46.63,"bear":63.16,"base":72.6,"bull":92.9,"psychedelic_bull":104.49},"weightedTP":75.65,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.china_diversified","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":4.4,"totalWTD":4.4},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"pharmaron_cro_cdmo","indication":"pharmaron_services","title":"Pharmaron FY 2026 revenue guidance execution (12-18%) + landmark CDMO deal","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.pharmaron.com/media/1215/presentation-for-2025-annual-results.pdf","_confidence":"high","failTP":63.6261146,"successTP":87.250476,"baseTP":75.6531705,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28}],"salesM2025":1970,"lenses":{"comparable":78.51,"peRel":0.5821}},"302440":{"name":"SK Bioscience Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Korean vaccine specialty | FY25 KRW 651B (+143%) | SKYCovione COVID + Cellflu/Varicella | 21-valent pneumo Ph3 (Sanofi) | GBP511 pan-sarbeco Ph1/2 | IDT CDMO","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":78.46,"netCashLocal":-274810,"cashPS":-3502.5491,"tps":{"mega_bear":12428.31,"bear":23261.83,"base":44291.62,"bull":81253.11,"psychedelic_bull":162186.05},"weightedTP":51779.51,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","_platform.cdmo.vaccines","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"modalities":["vaccine.protein_subunit.covid_spike_rbd","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","vaccine.protein_subunit.influenza_quadrivalent","vaccine.live_attenuated.varicella","vaccine.live_attenuated","vaccine.conjugate.pneumococcal_21v","vaccine.conjugate","vaccine.protein_subunit.pan_sarbeco","_platform.cdmo.vaccine_biologics","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":124},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":32},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":28},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","purity":16},{"area":"_platform.cdmo.vaccines","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.cdmo","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":107},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":39},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":31},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","purity":23},{"area":"_platform.cdmo.vaccines","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.cdmo","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":39,"totalTAM":38.7015,"totalWTD":27.76016},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"gbp511_universal","indication":"gbp511_pan_corona","title":"GBP511 pan-sarbecovirus vaccine Phase 1/2 immunogenicity data (Australia + Korea)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":75,"_source":"SK Bioscience corporate update 2025","_confidence":"medium","failTP":51779.5143,"successTP":51779.5143,"baseTP":51779.5143,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"pneumo_21valent","indication":"pneumo_21v_adult_ped","title":"21-valent pneumococcal Phase 3 topline (Sanofi-led, US/EU/Korea) (slipped: Ph3 topline guided H2 2027 with the May'26 KRW 300B Korea Growth Fund loan)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Sanofi/SK Bioscience pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":51779.5143,"successTP":51779.5143,"baseTP":51779.5143,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":455,"lenses":{"comparable":20694.51}},"326030":{"name":"SK Biopharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Korean CNS specialty | Xcopri (cenobamate) US epilepsy FY25 KRW 630B / ~$460M (+44%) | FY25 KRW 707B (+29%); Op profit KRW 204B (+112%) | EU via Angelini (Ontozry) + Japan via Ono Pharma","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":78,"netCashLocal":500000,"cashPS":6410.2564,"tps":{"mega_bear":32593.84,"bear":42666.2,"base":75640.85,"bull":121794.96,"psychedelic_bull":239743.96},"weightedTP":85345.84,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.focal","cns","cns.epilepsy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.sodium_channel_blocker","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.ion_channel.kv7_opener"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":200},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":200},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":200},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":36,"totalTAM":8.66,"totalWTD":6.354275},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct-Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"opakalim","indication":"focal_epilepsy","title":"Opakalim FDA partial clinical hold resolution -- Biohaven submitting rodent-metabolite nonclinical data late Sep/early Oct; SK guides resolution Oct-Nov 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/09/11/sk-biopharmaceuticals-says-opakalim-hold-to-be-resolved-by","failTP":85345.1629,"successTP":85346.2935,"baseTP":85345.8394,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":47,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-01","asset":"opakalim","indication":"focal_epilepsy","title":"Biohaven-SK Kv7 license CLOSING (HSR antitrust clearance + SK's condition that the partial hold is cleared) -- $350M due at closing, $50M one year after","type":"ma_close","binary":false,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001935979/000193597926000072/bhvn-20260826.htm","failTP":85344.772,"successTP":85346.2512,"baseTP":85345.8394,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":47,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2H 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"opakalim","indication":"focal_epilepsy","title":"Opakalim RISE3 (NCT06309966) Phase 2/3 focal epilepsy topline -- fully enrolled before the Sep 2026 partial hold; Biohaven guides 2H 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/biohaven-opakalim-pivotal-programme-fda-partial-clinical-hold/","failTP":85344.8327,"successTP":85346.6328,"baseTP":85345.8394,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xcopri","indication":"focal_epilepsy","title":"FY26 Xcopri target ~$600M+ run-rate; Op profit margin >35%","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"SK Biopharm FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":85345.8394,"successTP":85345.8394,"baseTP":85345.8394,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"xcopri","indication":"focal_epilepsy","title":"SK Group radiopharma / TPD bolt-on acquisition (M&A appetite signaled)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"SK Biopharm investor day","_confidence":"medium","failTP":85345.8394,"successTP":85345.8394,"baseTP":85345.8394,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":460,"lenses":{"comparable":43045.92,"eeRel":0.6765},"readouts":[{"a":"opakalim","ind":"focal_epilepsy","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":11.6524462,"lo":-3.15604346,"hi":38.7457758,"pBeatBest":0.0709,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33}]},"347850":{"name":"D&D Pharmatech","subtitle":"Korean MASH biotech: DD01 zabopegdutide liver-targeted GLP-1/glucagon dual Ph2 POSITIVE 48wk histology May'26 (fibrosis improvement + MASH resolution); MCap KRW 3.15T","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":43.8,"netCashLocal":100000,"cashPS":2283.105,"tps":{"mega_bear":3377.94,"bear":12344,"base":30061.06,"bull":48434.84,"psychedelic_bull":63607.28},"weightedTP":31750.93,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_glucagon_liver","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":83,"totalTAM":23.8,"totalWTD":12.9948},"catalysts":[{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"dd01_zabopegdutide","indication":"dd01_mash","title":"DD01 (Zabopegdutide) Ph3 MASH initiation + 48-wk histology Ph2 detailed data","type":"phase3_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260526295057/en/DD-Pharmatech-Announces-Positive-48-Week-Histology-Results-for-Zabopegdutide-DD01-Demonstrating-Statistically-Significant-Fibrosis-Improvement-and-MASH-Resolution","_confidence":"high","failTP":9918.09908,"successTP":49667.8255,"baseTP":31750.925,"swingPct":38,"successMove":17,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":25705.47}},"397030":{"name":"AprilBio","subtitle":"Korea SAFA half-life ext.: APB-A1 CD40L (Lundbeck; TED dropped Aug'26, new indication TBD); APB-R3 IL-18 (Evommune EVO301 Ph2a POSITIVE; Ph2b mid'27); TKG/IMM KRW347B raise Jul'26","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":31.73,"netCashLocal":427500,"cashPS":13473.0539,"tps":{"mega_bear":14496.71,"bear":22646.73,"base":36266.4,"bull":46623.14,"psychedelic_bull":64518.49},"weightedTP":33040.51,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.thyroid.graves","endocrine","endocrine.thyroid","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.fusion.cd40l_safa","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fusion","biologic.antibody.fusion.il18_safa"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":84},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":84},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":84},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":32},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":16}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":98},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":98},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":98},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":95},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":95},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":95},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":9},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":5}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":107,"totalTAM":16.372,"totalWTD":7.9090448},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 19, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-19","asset":"apb_a1_cd40l","indication":"apb_a1_autoimmune","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-19: APB-A1 (Lu AG22515) TED Ph1b -- FAIL for TED: Lundbeck H1'26 report says TSHR-autoantibody activity did not translate into expected clinical effect; TED dropped, new CD40L indication TBD","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://ichgcp.net/clinical-trials-registry/NCT06557850","_confidence":"high","failTP":31781.3507,"successTP":39322.2332,"baseTP":33040.5137,"swingPct":23,"successMove":19,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"apb_r3_il18","indication":"apb_r3_ad","title":"APB-R3 (EVO301) Ph2b atopic dermatitis initiation (>=3 dose regimens, 16 wk) -- SLIPPED from H2 2026 to mid-2027 per Evommune Q2'26 (scale-up + tox)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://ir.evommune.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/evommune-announces-positive-top-line-data-from-phase-2a-proof-of-concept-trial-of-evo301-in-moderate-to-severe-atopic-dermatitis","_confidence":"high","failTP":21015.7109,"successTP":45369.1365,"baseTP":33040.5137,"swingPct":22,"successMove":11,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":56,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":22841.97}},"475830":{"name":"Orum Therapeutics","subtitle":"Korea-US TPD2 degrader-antibody conjugates: ORM-5029 DISC Apr'25; ORM-6151 DISC by BMS Sep'26 (APA terminated); ORM-1153 CD123-GSPT1 DAC IND CLEARED Aug'26, Ph1 by end-'26","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":22.2,"netCashLocal":150000,"cashPS":6756.7568,"tps":{"mega_bear":7120.67,"bear":16138.2,"base":30382.09,"bull":42014.19,"psychedelic_bull":55579.87},"weightedTP":23590.72,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.degrader_payload.her2_gspt1","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.degrader_payload","biologic.adc.degrader_payload.cd33_gspt1","biologic.adc.degrader_payload.cd123_gspt1"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":43}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":2022,"totalTAM":9.902,"totalWTD":0.466689},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-23","asset":"orm_1153","indication":"orm1153_aml","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-23): FDA CLEARED the ORM-1153 IND (CD123-GSPT1 degrader-antibody conjugate) -- Orum plans to start a first-in-human Ph1 in R/R AML and other CD123+ heme malignancies by END-2026; ORM-1153 replaces ORM-5029 as the wholly-owned lead; now carried as a modelled wholly-owned asset in this config","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/23/3349402/0/en/orum-therapeutics-announces-us-fda-clearance-of-an-ind-application-for-orm-1153-a-novel-cd123-gspt1-degrader-antibody-conjugate.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":19107.2114,"successTP":37871.267,"baseTP":23590.7194,"swingPct":24,"successMove":18,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-16","asset":"orm_6151_bms","indication":"orm6151_aml","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-16 (MISS): BMS DISCONTINUED BMS-986497 (ORM-6151, CD33-GSPT1 DAC) after reviewing Ph1 AML/MDS data; asset purchase agreement terminated -- Orum keeps the $100M upfront, remaining $80M milestones extinguished (Orum disclosure Sep 16-17 2026). Stock limit-down Sep 17-18","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231106722808/en/Orum-Therapeutics-Announces-Acquisition-of-ORM-6151-Program-by-Bristol-Myers-Squibb","_confidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://biz.sbs.co.kr/amp/article/20000335381","failTP":15928.7541,"successTP":95614.3855,"baseTP":23590.7194,"swingPct":236,"successMove":214,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":48,"daysOut":null,"materiality":43},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"orm_1153","indication":"orm1153_aml","title":"ORM-1153 first-in-human Ph1 initiation in R/R AML / CD123+ heme malignancies (company guides by end-2026, post-IND clearance)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/23/3349402/0/en/orum-therapeutics-announces-us-fda-clearance-of-an-ind-application-for-orm-1153-a-novel-cd123-gspt1-degrader-antibody-conjugate.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":17187.5713,"successTP":30052.1913,"baseTP":23590.7194,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":25,"ceilPct":20,"position":"discontinued","asset":"orm_5029","ind":"orm5029_her2","area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","somB":1.4,"tamB":5.6}},"lenses":{"comparable":18467.21}},"600079":{"name":"Humanwell Healthcare (Group)","subtitle":"China diversified pharma: FY24 EPS CNY 0.82 -> FY25 EPS CNY 1.14 (+39%); Q1'26 rev CNY 6.10B flat; 8.8%/yr forecast growth; SSE; specialty anesthetics/CNS/reproductive","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":1600,"netCashLocal":5000,"cashPS":3.125,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.83,"bear":10.36,"base":10.99,"bull":13.32,"psychedelic_bull":14.65},"weightedTP":11.33,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.specialty_diversified","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":18,"totalWTD":18},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"humanwell_diversified","indication":"humanwell_portfolio","title":"Humanwell FY 2026 revenue + EPS growth execution","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/cn/pharmaceuticals-biotech/shse-600079/humanwell-healthcare-groupltd-shares","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.4126596,"successTP":12.3343109,"baseTP":11.3253081,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":380,"lenses":{"comparable":11.7,"peRel":1.0204}},"600085":{"name":"Beijing Tongrentang Co Ltd","subtitle":"356-year-old TCM giant (RMB 17.3B FY25, -7%; EPS -22%); flagship Angong Niuhuang Wan (premium cardiovascular/stroke pill) + Liuwei Dihuang series + Tongren Dahuoluo + Donkey-hide gelatin","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1370,"netCashLocal":8000,"cashPS":5.8394,"tps":{"mega_bear":15.92,"bear":24.74,"base":37.34,"bull":49.93,"psychedelic_bull":75.13},"weightedTP":39.41,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.stada_otc","_established_products","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products.diversified_legacy"],"modalities":["biological_extract.tcm.angong_niuhuang","biological_extract","biological_extract.tcm","biological_extract.tcm.classical_formulae","_diversified.distribution.china_pharmacy","_diversified","_diversified.distribution","biological_extract.tcm.health_products"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tongren_angong","indication":"angong_div","title":"Angong Niuhuang volume + pricing; bezoar raw material cost normalization","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Tongrentang FY24","_confidence":"high","failTP":39.4145255,"successTP":39.4145255,"baseTP":39.4145255,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2600,"lenses":{"comparable":49,"peRel":1.0766}},"600196":{"name":"Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)","subtitle":"Diversified Chinese pharma; 1H'26 rev RMB20.44B (+4.75%), innovative drugs RMB4.91B (+13.8%); Henlius RMB3.59B (+27.3%) -- Zercepac + serplulimab + HLX14 + HLX43 PD-L1 ADC; Gland + Sinopharm stake","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":2670,"netCashLocal":15000,"cashPS":5.618,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.31,"bear":22.4,"base":39.02,"bull":54.74,"psychedelic_bull":73.15},"weightedTP":40.78,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.lung","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_trastuzumab","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_diversified","_diversified.branded.china_manufacturing","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.generics.injectable_specialty","_diversified.generics","_diversified.distribution.china_wholesale","_diversified.distribution","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.pdl1_payload","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":66},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":87},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":60},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":44},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":32,"totalTAM":94.39964,"totalWTD":71.6372304},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-01-09","dateSort":"2026-01-09","asset":"hlx43","indication":"hlx43_solid","title":"REPORTED: HLX43 PD-L1 ADC Ph1/2 readouts -- SUCCESS (Ph2 ESCC 61.5% ORR / 100% DCR at 3 mg/kg, clean safety, ASCO GI Jan 2026); superseded by the ASCO 2026 NSCLC PFS readout tracked in the H2 2026 catalyst. Assumptions already reflect both.","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Fosun pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Phase 2 ESCC data showed 61.5% ORR and 100% DCR at 3mg/kg dose; positive safety profile established","_outcomeSource":"https://www.henlius.com/en/NewsDetails-5705-26.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":40.77603,"successTP":40.77603,"baseTP":40.77603,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-25","asset":"fosun_pharma_mfg","indication":"fosun_mfg_div","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-25): Fosun Pharma 1H 2026 interim results -- revenue RMB 20.442B (+4.75% YoY, +7.17% at constant FX); net profit attributable ex-non-recurring RMB 1.144B (+19.09%); operating cash flow RMB 2.424B (+13.59%); INNOVATIVE DRUG revenue RMB 4.911B (+13.84%) = 33.21% of pharma segment; Henlius revenue RMB 3.5882B (+27.3%), net profit RMB 430.4M (+10.3%)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fosun-pharma-announces-2026-interim-results-302859386.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":40.77603,"successTP":40.77603,"baseTP":40.77603,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"hlx43","indication":"hlx43_solid","title":"HLX43 PD-L1 ADC -- NSCLC PFS POSITIVE at ASCO 2026 (EGFR-wt nonsq cORR 36.8%/mPFS 6.67mo; sqNSCLC 33.3%/6.34mo, 46.7% post-docetaxel); NPC/HNSCC PoC still pending WCLC Oct / ESMO Sep 2026 (ESCC POC ASCO GI Jan 2026; 10+ tumor types, 500+ pts)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":27,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":43,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.henlius.com/en/NewsDetails-5705-26.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"ASCO 2026: HLX43 NSCLC PFS read out positive (cORR/mPFS above); NPC + HNSCC PoC still expected WCLC Oct / ESMO Sep 2026. Supportive -- title updated, no pos change.","failTP":40.77603,"successTP":40.77603,"baseTP":40.77603,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":29,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"henlius_biosim_diversified","indication":"henlius_biosim_div","title":"HLX04 bevacizumab US FDA decision + serplulimab US BLA filing (HLX14 already approved US+EU Sept'25)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Henlius pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":40.77603,"successTP":40.77603,"baseTP":40.77603,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4940,"lenses":{"comparable":55.95,"eeRel":0.8537,"peRel":1.2648},"readouts":[{"a":"hlx43","ind":"hlx43_solid","ds":"2026-01-09","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":7.65423831,"lo":2.4569679,"hi":13.1809691,"pBeatBest":0.1842,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"hlx43","ind":"hlx43_solid","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.74863166,"lo":2.07104471,"hi":12.656324,"pBeatBest":0.12305,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"600276":{"name":"Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"China's largest R&D-spending pharma | H1'26 revenue RMB15.46B; innovative-drug sales RMB8.81B (+16.4%) = 63% of drug sales | US 1L HCC combo hit a THIRD CRL Jul'26 (manufacturing)","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":6360,"netCashLocal":38842,"cashPS":6.1072,"tps":{"mega_bear":21.87,"bear":32.58,"base":46.44,"bull":71.93,"psychedelic_bull":126.98},"weightedTP":50.92,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.hcc","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","oncology.gi.esophageal","oncology.head_neck.npc","oncology.head_neck","oncology.gynecologic.cervical","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.lung.sclc","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","_established_products.hengrui_heritage","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.pan_her_tki","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.vegfr_inhibitor","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pdl1","small_molecule.kinase.multi_tki","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip_dual","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":121},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":60},{"area":"_established_products.hengrui_heritage","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":113},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":57},{"area":"_established_products.hengrui_heritage","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.hengrui_heritage","purity":98},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":10,"totalTAM":238.18964,"totalWTD":217.30964},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-07-15","dateSort":"2025-07-15","asset":"hrs9531","indication":"obesity","title":"REPORTED (2025-07-15, success): HRS9531 GLP-1/GIP dual-agonist Ph3 China obesity POSITIVE (19.2% wt loss @6mg vs 1.4% pbo, 48wk); NMPA MAA accepted; global Ph3 via Kailera","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.hengrui.com/en/news","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Phase 3 trial met primary endpoints with up to 17.7% weight loss; stock positive reaction and NDA submitted","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/07/15/3115481/0/en/Hengrui-Pharma-and-Kailera-Therapeutics-Report-Positive-Topline-Data-from-Phase-3-Obesity-Trial-in-China-of-Dual-GLP-1-GIP-Receptor-Agonist-HRS9531.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":50.7963851,"successTP":50.9726918,"baseTP":50.9201328,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 10 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-10","asset":"camrelizumab","indication":"hcc","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED 2026-07-10 -- THIRD CRL for camrelizumab + rivoceranib (apatinib) in 1L unresectable HCC. cGMP deficiencies at the RIVOCERANIB manufacturing site (Elevar); no new CARES-310 efficacy or safety concerns raised","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"_source":"Elevar Therapeutics press release 2026-07-10 + OncLive/FiercePharma","_confidence":"high","failTP":50.9201328,"successTP":50.9201328,"baseTP":50.9201328,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3910,"lenses":{"comparable":23.55,"eeRel":0.4217,"peRel":0.5579},"readouts":[{"a":"hrs9531","ind":"obesity","ds":"2025-07-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":16.5722466,"lo":0.645156792,"hi":28.7553104,"pBeatBest":0.11035,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"600285":{"name":"Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China TCM plaster/tablet: Tongluoqutong+Peiyuantongnao+Danlutongdu; FY24 rev CNY 3.50B (+5.7%) NI 723M (+27%); TTM CNY 3.56B (+10.3%); Q1'25 NI +13.9%; MCap RMB 11.6B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":563,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":2.6643,"tps":{"mega_bear":15.67,"bear":19.57,"base":23.35,"bull":29.42,"psychedelic_bull":35.04},"weightedTP":23.1,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.tcm.plasters_tablets","_diversified","_diversified.tcm"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":6,"totalWTD":6},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"lingrui_tcm","indication":"lingrui_franchise","title":"Lingrui FY 2026 TCM franchise update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/sha/600285/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":19.6345493,"successTP":27.5048185,"baseTP":23.0962645,"swingPct":10,"successMove":6,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":24.86,"peRel":1.0273}},"600332":{"name":"Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings","subtitle":"Massive Chinese diversified pharma+TCM: FY25 rev RMB 77.66B (+3.55%); NP RMB 2.98B (+5.21%); Great Southern TCM + Great Health + Great Commerce + Great Medical Care segments; MCap ~$5.65B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":1447,"netCashLocal":8000,"cashPS":5.5287,"tps":{"mega_bear":12.41,"bear":13.64,"base":14.97,"bull":16.26,"psychedelic_bull":17.79},"weightedTP":14.9,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.tcm_western_health_diversified","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1.625,"totalWTD":1.625},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"baiyunshan_diversified","indication":"baiyunshan_portfolio","title":"Baiyunshan FY 2026 revenue execution + innovation/global expansion","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.tradingview.com/news/urn:summary_document_report:quartr.com:3122839:0-guangzhou-baiyunshan-pharmaceutical-holdings-company-net-profit-rose-5-21-to-rmb2-98b-on-rmb77-66b-revenue-focusing-on-innovation-and-global-expansion/","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.1591717,"successTP":15.6948827,"baseTP":14.8992362,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19}],"salesM2025":450,"lenses":{"comparable":15.18,"peRel":0.9281}},"600422":{"name":"KPC Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China Yunnan-based TCM + chemical drugs (botanical+natural drugs): diversified pharma; MCap RMB 9.2B; FY24 rev RMB 6.58B (~$905M)","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":757,"netCashLocal":800,"cashPS":1.0568,"tps":{"mega_bear":15.54,"bear":21.28,"base":27.8,"bull":35.65,"psychedelic_bull":42.93},"weightedTP":27.37,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.tcm_chemical_wholesale","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":25,"totalWTD":25},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kpc_franchise","indication":"kpc_franchise_all","title":"KPC FY26 results + TCM portfolio updates","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/sha/600422/market-cap/","_confidence":"high","failTP":21.8737243,"successTP":33.6155608,"baseTP":27.3724021,"swingPct":13,"successMove":7,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":29.81}},"600436":{"name":"Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co Ltd","subtitle":"Premium hepatic TCM (FY25 RMB 9.0B -17%; H1 26 RMB 4.57B -15%, NP -24%); 2nd year of decline | Pien Tze Huang secret-formula pill ~50% revenue + capsules + cosmetics + distribution","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":603,"netCashLocal":3270,"cashPS":5.4229,"tps":{"mega_bear":55.78,"bear":74.79,"base":100.15,"bull":131.84,"psychedelic_bull":182.54},"weightedTP":106.17,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.stada_otc","_established_products","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","dermatology.aesthetics.filler","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","_established_products.diversified_legacy","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology","oncology.gi"],"modalities":["biological_extract.tcm.hepatic_secret_formula","biological_extract","biological_extract.tcm","biological_extract.tcm.hepatic_capsules","aesthetic_or_other.skincare.tcm_premium","aesthetic_or_other","aesthetic_or_other.skincare","_diversified.distribution.china_wholesale","_diversified","_diversified.distribution","biological_extract.tcm.hepatic_oncology"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":166},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":83},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":17},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":185},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":8},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":17,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":11,"totalTAM":8.9821,"totalWTD":8.0810168},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ptz_pill","indication":"ptz_hepatic","title":"Pien Tze Huang pill volume/price recovery from FY25 destocking","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"PTZ FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":106.16831,"successTP":106.16831,"baseTP":106.16831,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ptz_liver_ph2","indication":"ptz_plc","title":"Pien Tze Huang PLC Ph2 readout (liver cancer label expansion)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_source":"PTZ pipeline","_confidence":"low","failTP":106.161524,"successTP":106.172744,"baseTP":106.16831,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":54,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1280,"lenses":{"comparable":61.85,"eeRel":0.7665,"peRel":1.319}},"600518":{"name":"Kangmei Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China TCM giant: Chinese herbal slices + patent medicines + health food + chemical drugs; FY25 rev CNY 5.25B; post-restructuring; MCap RMB 24.3B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":13830,"netCashLocal":3000,"cashPS":0.2169,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.08,"bear":1.42,"base":1.82,"bull":2.3,"psychedelic_bull":2.73},"weightedTP":1.71,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.tcm.herbal_chemical_legacy","_diversified","_diversified.tcm"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":30,"totalWTD":30},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kangmei_tcm","indication":"kangmei_franchise","title":"Kangmei FY 2026 TCM franchise + modernization progress","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/sha/600518/financials/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.41359094,"successTP":2.13805624,"baseTP":1.71459449,"swingPct":13,"successMove":8,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26}],"salesM2025":735,"lenses":{"comparable":1.86}},"600521":{"name":"Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China API+generics (valsartan; 45% US/DE pre-2018 NDMA). NEW FDA Warning Letter #707145 (Jun'25) on Xunqiao finished-dose site (CGMP) limits pending ANDAs; US re-entry stalled; China+CDMO core","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":1490,"netCashLocal":4000,"cashPS":2.6846,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.58,"bear":14.75,"base":17.99,"bull":22.52,"psychedelic_bull":26.75},"weightedTP":17.86,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.api_generics_cv","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":7.72,"totalWTD":7.72},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"huahai_api","indication":"huahai_diversified","title":"Huahai FY 2026 US market recovery + API pipeline expansion","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/3-years-valsartan-recall-zhejiang-huahai-china-drug-manufacturer-fda-warning-letter","_confidence":"high","failTP":15.0127064,"successTP":21.4705403,"baseTP":17.8618134,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26}],"salesM2025":1250,"lenses":{"comparable":30.95,"peRel":0.6953}},"600566":{"name":"Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China specialty pharma: pediatrics + gynecology + pulmonology + GI + geriatric (TCM+Western); FY24 rev RMB 6.14B; 9M'25 sum ~RMB 3.6B; FY25 results Apr'26","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":921.66,"netCashLocal":3000,"cashPS":3.255,"tps":{"mega_bear":22.08,"bear":27.5,"base":31.7,"bull":38.52,"psychedelic_bull":47.97},"weightedTP":32.34,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.pediatric_specialty_tcm_western","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":21.01,"totalWTD":21.01},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"jumpcan_diversified","indication":"jumpcan_portfolio","title":"Hubei Jumpcan H1 FY 2026 interim results","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/600566.SS/","_confidence":"high","failTP":27.8943379,"successTP":37.5317614,"baseTP":32.3419326,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":880,"lenses":{"comparable":33.73,"peRel":0.7312}},"600572":{"name":"Zhejiang CONBA Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Chinese TCM specialty | TTM CNY 6.58B (+1.80% YoY); Q3 2025 +10.42% | TCM injections + granules (oncology + CV + respiratory + GI) + modern Rx + APIs; defensive franchise","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2511,"netCashLocal":300,"cashPS":0.1195,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.53,"bear":2.66,"base":4.14,"bull":6.33,"psychedelic_bull":10.51},"weightedTP":4.47,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.china_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["biological_extract.tcm.diversified","biological_extract","biological_extract.tcm","_diversified.branded.china_branded_rx","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"conba_tcm","indication":"tcm_div","title":"REPORTED: Conba FY25 + Q1 2026 results reported (TCM franchise; Q1 sequential trends in line with VBP price-pressure trajectory)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Conba IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":4.46833931,"successTP":4.46833931,"baseTP":4.46833931,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":900,"lenses":{"comparable":10.16,"peRel":1}},"600664":{"name":"Harbin Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Chinese diversified pharma | TTM CNY 16.22B | Sanjing OTC + consumer + prescription Rx + APIs; major Chinese pharma top-15; defensive franchise","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2520,"netCashLocal":1960,"cashPS":0.7778,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.32,"bear":3,"base":4.15,"bull":6.06,"psychedelic_bull":9.71},"weightedTP":4.49,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.china_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.china_branded_otc","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.china_branded_rx"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"harbin_otc_consumer","indication":"otc_div","title":"REPORTED: Harbin Pharmaceutical Q1 2026 results reported (penicillin API + generics + Sanjing OTC franchise)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Harbin IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":4.48759921,"successTP":4.48759921,"baseTP":4.48759921,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2300,"lenses":{"comparable":25.28,"peRel":0.4504}},"600750":{"name":"China Resources Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China TCM franchise (renamed CR Jiangzhong Jan'25): Shenbao + Paishi + Huangba Shengmai + Bazhen Yimu + OTC; CR Pharma Group SOE; MCap RMB 14.5B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":630,"netCashLocal":2500,"cashPS":3.9683,"tps":{"mega_bear":16.05,"bear":20.52,"base":25.41,"bull":31.71,"psychedelic_bull":37.54},"weightedTP":24.46,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.tcm.herbal_otc","_diversified","_diversified.tcm"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":8,"totalWTD":8},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"jiangzhong_tcm","indication":"jiangzhong_franchise","title":"CR Jiangzhong FY 2026 first full year post-rename + CR synergies update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://simplywall.st/stock/shse/600750","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.8145248,"successTP":29.3236875,"baseTP":24.4609078,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25}],"salesM2025":620,"lenses":{"comparable":26.26,"peRel":0.9392}},"600789":{"name":"Shandong Lukang Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China antibiotic API + human/veterinary: ex-Jining Antibiotic Factory; FY25 rev CNY 5.77B (-7.5% YoY), NI CNY 112M (-71%), P/E ~80; commodity API margin collapse; MCap ~RMB 7.4B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":1050,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":1.4286,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.02,"bear":5.22,"base":6.65,"bull":8.38,"psychedelic_bull":9.83},"weightedTP":6.16,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.antibiotic_api_human_vet","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":10,"totalWTD":10},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"lukang_api","indication":"lukang_franchise","title":"Lukang FY 2026 API pricing recovery + margin restoration","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://dcfmodeling.com/blogs/history/600789ss-history-mission-ownership","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.1418588,"successTP":7.73190726,"baseTP":6.16270138,"swingPct":13,"successMove":8,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23}],"salesM2025":600,"lenses":{"comparable":11.07,"peRel":0.8678}},"600867":{"name":"Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Chinese insulin biosimilar leader | FY24 ~$400M turnover (~CNY 2.8B); recombinant human insulin + analog biosimilars; NRDL volume-based procurement headwinds vs Novo/Lilly/Sanofi MNC","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":2000,"netCashLocal":4000,"cashPS":2,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.4,"bear":6.05,"base":9.5,"bull":14.25,"psychedelic_bull":25.1},"weightedTP":10.29,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.insulin_biosimilar","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":78.55,"totalWTD":78.55},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"insulin_biosim","indication":"insulin_t2d","title":"REPORTED: Tonghua Dongbao FY25 + Q1 2026 results reported; NRDL pricing trajectory updated (insulin franchise VBP wave-3 progression on schedule)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Tonghua Dongbao IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":10.285,"successTP":10.285,"baseTP":10.285,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2800,"lenses":{"comparable":6.38,"eeRel":0.6065,"peRel":2.1677}},"601607":{"name":"Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co Ltd","subtitle":"China #2 pharma distributor + top-10 manufacturer (RMB 284B FY25, +3%); SOE | 93% distribution + 7% manufacturing (60+ drugs >RMB 100M); Cardiovascular + anti-tumor + immunology (CAR-T JV w/ JW...","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":3708,"netCashLocal":-15400,"cashPS":-4.1532,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.49,"bear":9.61,"base":16.5,"bull":26.44,"psychedelic_bull":40.21},"weightedTP":18.49,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml"],"modalities":["_diversified.distribution.china_wholesale","_diversified","_diversified.distribution","_diversified.branded.china_manufacturing","_diversified.branded","biologic.antibody.mab.diversified","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":122,"totalTAM":0.92898,"totalWTD":0.418041},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"shpl_manufacturing","indication":"shpl_mfg_div","title":"FY26 manufacturing margin expansion + rare disease drug launches","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Shanghai Pharma FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.4865693,"successTP":18.4865693,"baseTP":18.4865693,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":40200,"lenses":{"comparable":259.44,"eeRel":1.75,"peRel":1.7528}},"603087":{"name":"Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China insulin biosim leader: Ondibta (glargine) EU CHMP positive + US BLA accepted (FIRST China insulin BLA); lispro/aspart US BLAs filed; TTM rev ~$533M","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":616,"netCashLocal":5000,"cashPS":8.1169,"tps":{"mega_bear":45.07,"bear":59.14,"base":74.02,"bull":98.92,"psychedelic_bull":123.95},"weightedTP":76.82,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.insulin_biosimilars","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":78.55,"totalWTD":78.55},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"insulin_biosimilars","indication":"insulin_diabetes","title":"Ondibta EU EC approval + US FDA insulin BLA decisions (glargine + lispro)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.ganlee.com/detail/810.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":61.7034081,"successTP":93.7531225,"baseTP":76.8240688,"swingPct":21,"successMove":11,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":45}],"salesM2025":550,"lenses":{"comparable":71.53,"eeRel":0.3032,"peRel":0.7344}},"603392":{"name":"Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy","subtitle":"China-first 9v HPV Cecolin 9 (Jun'25, RMB 499/dose) + IVD diagnostics (FY25 reagents RMB 1.31B, ~half of revenue); H1'26 rev RMB 1.05B +24%, loss RMB -128M; net cash ~RMB 5.8B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":1264.4,"netCashLocal":5837.9,"cashPS":4.6171,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.54,"bear":10.11,"base":11.53,"bull":13.95,"psychedelic_bull":16.17},"weightedTP":11.63,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella"],"modalities":["vaccine.protein_subunit.vlp_hpv","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","_diversified.diagnostics.ivd_reagents","_diversified","_diversified.diagnostics","vaccine.live_attenuated.varicella","vaccine.live_attenuated"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":132},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":92},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","purity":52},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":16}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":138},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":91},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","purity":45},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":17}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":111},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":82},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":59},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","purity":7}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":5,"totalTAM":12.26,"totalWTD":11.71132},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cecolin9","indication":"cecolin9_hpv","title":"Cecolin 9 FY 2026 commercial ramp + return-to-profitability execution","type":"milestone","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://finance.biggo.com/news/zUBxsJ0BJouf4oEhSo1H","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.950231,"successTP":12.3659622,"baseTP":11.6254612,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"vzv7d","indication":"vzv7d_varicella","title":"NMPA approval decision -- VZV-7D live attenuated varicella vaccine (BLA accepted Jun 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.cnpharm.com/upload/resources/file/2026/06/26/190784.pdf","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.3946941,"successTP":11.7060456,"baseTP":11.6254612,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":83,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":247,"lenses":{"comparable":10.78}},"603439":{"name":"Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China Guizhou diversified pharma: pediatric + respiratory + CV + GI + ophthalmic; FY24 CNY 2.14B (+31%) reversed: TTM CNY 1.68B (-21%), 1H25 -24% YoY, net income -83%; respiratory demand shrank","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":409,"netCashLocal":500,"cashPS":1.2225,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.7,"bear":11.08,"base":13.98,"bull":18.16,"psychedelic_bull":21.97},"weightedTP":14.18,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.tcm_chemical_pediatric","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":8,"totalWTD":8},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sanli_franchise","indication":"sanli_franchise_all","title":"Sanli FY26 results + pediatric/respiratory portfolio updates","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/sha/603439/","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.4421109,"successTP":17.3058093,"baseTP":14.184822,"swingPct":12,"successMove":7,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":232,"lenses":{"comparable":15.35}},"603707":{"name":"Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China global heparin leader: heparin sodium + enoxaparin + dalteparin + nadroparin; 80 products / 60 countries; 76.75% foreign rev; FY25 proj CNY 4.76B; MCap ~RMB 11.5B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":1614,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":1.2392,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.94,"bear":10.18,"base":12.53,"bull":15.97,"psychedelic_bull":19.24},"weightedTP":12.38,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.generics.heparin_anticoagulant","_diversified","_diversified.generics"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":10,"totalWTD":10},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kingfriend_heparin","indication":"kingfriend_heparin_franchise","title":"King-Friend FY 2026 heparin scale + LMWH biosimilar expansion (proj CNY 6.37B)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.investing.com/equities/nanjing-king-friend-bio","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.2300552,"successTP":15.0178334,"baseTP":12.3797371,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":665,"lenses":{"comparable":12.51,"peRel":0.9158}},"688062":{"name":"Mabwell (Shanghai) Bioscience","subtitle":"China ADC + Ab: 9MW2821 Nectin-4 Ph3 cervical ENROLLED -- interim+pre-NDA H2'26; 9MW5211 IBD IND cleared; FDA FT x3+ODD+BTD x2; Ph2 ORR 35.8%/12mo OS 74.6%/NEJM; MCap RMB 16.1B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":446.73,"netCashLocal":-933.3,"cashPS":-2.0892,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.09,"bear":4.58,"base":7.19,"bull":11.4,"psychedelic_bull":15.1},"weightedTP":7.17,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gynecologic.cervical","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","_platform.adc_discovery","_platform","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.nectin4","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.multi_target","_diversified.mixed.biosimilars_recombinant","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":127},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":16}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":93},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":18}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":163},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":20},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":10}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":125,"totalTAM":9.6822,"totalWTD":4.31030686},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"mabwell_9mw2821","indication":"9mw2821_cervical","title":"9MW2821 Nectin-4 ADC Ph3 cervical INTERIM + pre-NDA submission H2 2026 (enrollment complete)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":38,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/sha/688062/","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company guidance reaffirmed at ESMO Gynae 2026 (Copenhagen, Jun 17-19 2026) and in the 2026 interim disclosures: CC monotherapy Ph3 enrolment COMPLETE; interim analysis to be conducted and a pre-NDA meeting request to be filed with CDE/NMPA in H2 2026. As of 2026-09-04 no interim result has been disclosed -- catalyst remains OPEN.","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mabwell-presents-clinical-results-of-nectin-4-targeting-adc-9mw2821-at-2026-esmo-gynaecological-cancers-congress-302804513.html","failTP":6.6856265,"successTP":7.65045596,"baseTP":7.17292207,"swingPct":14,"successMove":7,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":93,"lenses":{"comparable":8.53}},"688076":{"name":"Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical","subtitle":"China peptide+oligo CDMO: sema+tirze+lira APIs; EU sema inj + LATAM oral sema deals; multi-ton capacity end-25; FY25 rev CNY 1.94B (+19.6%); MCap RMB 9.2B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":316.05,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":4.7461,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.14,"bear":19.57,"base":28.5,"bull":40.12,"psychedelic_bull":52.24},"weightedTP":28.31,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.peptide_oligo","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":8,"totalWTD":8},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sinopep_peptide","indication":"sinopep_franchise","title":"Sinopep FY 2026 multi-ton capacity ramps + EU sema + LATAM oral sema scale","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.alphaspread.com/security/sse/688076/financials/income-statement/revenue","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.5650908,"successTP":36.8198504,"baseTP":28.3130175,"swingPct":17,"successMove":9,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25}],"salesM2025":272,"lenses":{"comparable":49.12,"peRel":0.9989}},"688091":{"name":"Shanghai Yizhong Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China micelle delivery: pm-Pac CrEL-free paclitaxel Ph3 NSCLC prolonged OS no pleural mets (NDA filed); Ph3 pancreatic+sarcoma; Ph2 breast; H1'25 +31.5%; MCap RMB 11.8B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":205.76,"netCashLocal":1200,"cashPS":5.832,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.46,"bear":11.45,"base":14.95,"bull":18.25,"psychedelic_bull":20.96},"weightedTP":14.35,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","_platform.oncology_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.taxane_micelle","small_molecule","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":90},{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":19}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":97},{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":93},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":93},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":93},{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":14}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":18,"totalTAM":35.1895,"totalWTD":29.8697392},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"paclitaxel_micelle","indication":"paclitaxel_micelle_nsclc","title":"Paclitaxel polymer micelle NSCLC China NDA approval decision (H2'26)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://www.investing.com/equities/shanghai-yizhong-pharmaceutical-company-profile","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.355567,"successTP":17.141794,"baseTP":14.3467877,"swingPct":47,"successMove":19,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":96,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":62}],"salesM2025":45,"lenses":{"comparable":14.42,"eeRel":0.0915,"peRel":0.1871}},"688131":{"name":"Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress (ChemExpress)","subtitle":"China CDMO/CRO pure-play: small molecule + new modalities; FY24 rev RMB 2.26B (+20%); TTM Q1'25 RMB 2.37B (+20.6%); MCap RMB 8.47B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":212,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":7.0755,"tps":{"mega_bear":29.78,"bear":40.16,"base":49.25,"bull":65.06,"psychedelic_bull":80.87},"weightedTP":51.1,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.small_molecule_new_modalities","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":12,"totalWTD":12},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"haoyuan_cdmo","indication":"haoyuan_franchise","title":"Haoyuan FY 2026 CDMO growth + new modalities expansion","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/sha/688131/revenue/","_confidence":"high","failTP":40.899407,"successTP":61.9146422,"baseTP":51.1018508,"swingPct":12,"successMove":6,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26}],"salesM2025":330,"lenses":{"comparable":89.95,"peRel":0.8136}},"688176":{"name":"Jiangsu Yahong Meditech (Asieris Pharma)","subtitle":"China urogenital + women's health: APL-1202 MetAP2 NMIBC Ph3; APL-1702 (CEVIRA) cervical HSIL APPROVED China Mar'26; APL-1706 (HEXVIX) commercial; FY25 rev CNY 277M (+37%); MCap CNY 7.9B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":571,"netCashLocal":1539,"cashPS":2.6953,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.71,"bear":3.05,"base":3.49,"bull":4.03,"psychedelic_bull":4.61},"weightedTP":3.43,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.gynecologic.cervical","oncology.gynecologic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.metap2_aminopeptidase","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.photodynamic.hexvix_dual","small_molecule.photodynamic","small_molecule.photodynamic.diagnostic_hexvix"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":15}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":23}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":6}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":63,"totalTAM":10.1595,"totalWTD":6.22346512},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"apl_1202_metap2","indication":"apl1202_nmibc","title":"APL-1202 Ph3 NMIBC readout China + MIBC neoadjuvant + tislelizumab Ph3 progress","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/sha/688176/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.3815293,"successTP":3.73545354,"baseTP":3.42871257,"swingPct":10,"successMove":9,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"apl_1702_pdt","indication":"apl1702_cervical_hsil","title":"APL-1702 (CEVIRA) China commercial launch progress + initial sales (NMPA approval Mar 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/asieris-cevira-approved-in-china-as-first-in-class-non-invasive-therapy-for-cervical-precancerous-lesions-302702283.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.3987751,"successTP":3.44227096,"baseTP":3.42871257,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":93,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"apl_1702_pdt","indication":"apl1702_cervical_hsil","title":"APL-1702 (CEVIRA) EU decision -- EMA has ACCEPTED the marketing authorisation application; opens an ex-China territory","type":"ema_approval","binary":false,"_source":"Asieris PR (EMA accepts MAA for APL-1702); 2026 semi-annual report 2026-08-28","_sourceUrl":"https://asieris.com/asieris-announces-european-medicines-agency-accepts-marketing-authorization-application-for-apl-1702/","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"EMA acceptance of the APL-1702 MAA is confirmed; the decision date is not public, so a placeholder mid-2027 date is used","failTP":3.3548743,"successTP":3.37609732,"baseTP":3.42871257,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":98,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.48},"readouts":[{"a":"apl_1202_metap2","ind":"apl1202_nmibc","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","endpoint":"cr_rate_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":23.3249751,"lo":5.97949876,"hi":87.350591,"pBeatBest":0.03905,"bestDrug":"TAR-200 (gemcitabine RS)","bestValue":82.4}]},"688185":{"name":"CanSino Biologics Inc.","subtitle":"Chinese innovative vaccine | H1'26 rev ~RMB550M (+43.8%), loss narrowing, overseas RMB150M | Ad5 platform + iPneucia PCV13i + Menhycia MCV4 + Tripecia DTaP (approved Apr'26, batches Aug'26)","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":247,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":8.0972,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.72,"bear":11.55,"base":20.68,"bull":30.63,"psychedelic_bull":46.4},"weightedTP":21.48,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis"],"modalities":["vaccine.viral_vector.ad5","vaccine","vaccine.viral_vector","vaccine.conjugate.pneumococcal_meningococcal","vaccine.conjugate","vaccine.protein_subunit.pertussis","vaccine.protein_subunit"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":120},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":61},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","purity":19}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":120},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":61},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":20.0395,"totalWTD":20.0395},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-04-28","dateSort":"2026-04-28","asset":"ad5_vaccine_platform","indication":"cansino_covid_ebola","title":"REPORTED: CanSino Q1 2026 rev RMB 190M (+38.7%) + pneumococcal (iPneucia) ramp; PCV24 Ph1/2 initiated May 2026","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CanSino IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Q1 2026 revenue RMB 190M (+38.73% YoY); iPneucia pneumococcal vaccine contributing considerable revenue; PCV24 Phase I/II initiated May 2026; positive operational momentum","_outcomeSource":"https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/hong-kong-apr-28-2026-acn-newswire-cansino-biologics-inc/69251837","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":21.4800576,"successTP":21.4800576,"baseTP":21.4800576,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"ad5_vaccine_platform","indication":"cansino_covid_ebola","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-27): CanSino H1 2026 interim results -- revenue ~RMB 550M (+43.8% YoY), overseas revenue RMB 150M, net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed materially; Tripecia (DTaP, infants) NDA approved Apr 2026 with first commercial batch release Aug 2026, provincial tendering underway","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/cansino-biologics-sets-board-meeting-to-approve-interim-results-and-consider-dividend","_confidence":"medium","failTP":21.4800576,"successTP":21.4800576,"baseTP":21.4800576,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"ad5_vaccine_platform","indication":"cansino_covid_ebola","title":"CanSino Q3 2026 results -- iPneucia (PCV13i) and Menhycia (MCV4) commercial ramp trajectory","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CanSino Biologics quarterly reporting cadence (SSE 688185); Q1 2026 reported Apr 28 2026","_confidence":"medium","_note":"ADDED 2026-08-18: restores a near-term reporting checkpoint to the config.","failTP":21.4800576,"successTP":21.4800576,"baseTP":21.4800576,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"pcv_meningococcal","indication":"pcv_men","title":"Menhycia (MCV4) NMPA decision on the age-expansion supplemental application to 3 months-17 years (accepted July 2026); follow-on 7-59 year expansion filing in preparation","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CanSinoBIO corporate news -- Menhycia sBLA for ages 3 months-17 years accepted by China NMPA July 2026; Feb 2026 NMPA approval for 3 months-6 years; June 2026 Argentina ANMAT marketing authorization; https://www.cansinotech.com/detail-4975","_confidence":"medium","_note":"ADDED 2026-08-18: config had no forward catalyst at all. Both assets are commercial with pos/apr pinned at 100/100, so label/age expansion moves PENETRATION, not PoS -- a granted expansion supports the base pen 1.0 volume ramp rather than any pos change.","failTP":21.4800576,"successTP":21.4800576,"baseTP":21.4800576,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"tripecia_dtap","indication":"tripecia_dtap_infant","title":"Tripecia (DTaP) provincial tendering + market-access completion and first full-year commercial ramp in China","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/cansino-biologics-sets-board-meeting-to-approve-interim-results-and-consider-dividend","_confidence":"medium","failTP":21.3086483,"successTP":21.6514668,"baseTP":21.4800576,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":180,"lenses":{"comparable":20.55,"eeRel":0.0691,"peRel":0.0254}},"688192":{"name":"Dizal Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"Sunvozertinib (ZEGFROVY) oral EGFR Exon20ins NSCLC. AZ GLOBAL LICENSE Jul'26: $600M up + up to $900M ms + royalties; AZ takes worldwide incl China -> Dizal now royalty/milestone play","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":465,"netCashLocal":6850,"cashPS":14.7312,"tps":{"mega_bear":17.23,"bear":19.29,"base":22,"bull":25.23,"psychedelic_bull":28.45},"weightedTP":22,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.egfr_exon20","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":10,"totalTAM":17.36,"totalWTD":15.83232},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-14","asset":"sunvozertinib","indication":"sunv_nsclc_exon20","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-14: AstraZeneca global exclusive license for Zegfrovy/sunvozertinib -- $600M upfront + up to $900M dev/reg/sales milestones + tiered royalties; AZ takes worldwide rights incl China; close H2'26","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2026/astrazeneca-licenses-novel-egfr-inhibitor.html ; https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dizal-announces-global-exclusive-license-agreement-with-astrazeneca-for-zegfrovy-302824624.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"AZ global license signed 2026-07-14. $600M upfront added to cash (RMB ~4,350M). company_slice recast from direct product SOM to ~18% royalty proxy (tier undisclosed). Dizal off-loads commercial risk; ceiling now royalty-capped. Milestones (dev/reg vs sales split undisclosed) tracked below.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":14.6323405,"successTP":14.6966416,"baseTP":21.9954147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sunvozertinib","indication":"sunv_nsclc_exon20","title":"AZ deal close + WU-KONG28 1L NSCLC Exon20ins filings (dev/reg milestones, part of $900M) + China NMPA 1L NDA decision","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"AstraZeneca/Dizal PR 2026-07-14","_confidence":"medium","failTP":14.6323405,"successTP":14.6966416,"baseTP":21.9954147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-16,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"2027+","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"sunvozertinib","indication":"sunv_nsclc_exon20","title":"Zegfrovy global sales milestones (part of $900M) + tiered royalties ramp under AZ commercialization","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"AstraZeneca/Dizal PR 2026-07-14","_confidence":"low","failTP":14.6323405,"successTP":14.6966416,"baseTP":21.9954147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-10,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":-10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":10,"lenses":{"comparable":21.89}},"688266":{"name":"Suzhou Zelgen Biopharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China innovative oncology+heme+immunology: Donafenib HCC head-to-head OS win; gusacitinib (ex-'jaktinib') first domestic China JAK -- MF May'25 AND severe alopecia areata Jun'26; AD Ph3 hit Apr'26","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":282.4,"netCashLocal":993,"cashPS":3.5163,"tps":{"mega_bear":30.43,"bear":44.12,"base":61.01,"bull":79.76,"psychedelic_bull":97.9},"weightedTP":60.33,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.hcc","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.multi_kinase_hcc","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.jak"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":58},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":25}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":58},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":25}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":149},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":74},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":9}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":22.5975,"totalWTD":22.5975},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-13","asset":"jaktinib","indication":"jaktinib_mf","title":"REPORTED 2026-04-13 (HIT, NOT MODELLED): gusacitinib Phase 3 in moderate-to-severe ATOPIC DERMATITIS MET its primary efficacy endpoint -- a third potential indication, also unmodelled","type":"phase3_data","failTP":46.3302042,"successTP":52.3250177,"baseTP":60.3278245,"swingPct":10,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-15","asset":"jaktinib","indication":"jaktinib_mf","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-15 (APPROVAL, NOT MODELLED): NMPA approved gusacitinib (Zepuping) for SEVERE ALOPECIA AREATA in adults on two Phase 3 trials -- second approved indication, first in immune-inflammatory disease. This indication has NO entry in the config and therefore contributes zero value; see the freshness flag","type":"regulatory","failTP":46.3302042,"successTP":52.3250177,"baseTP":60.3278245,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-6,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"jaktinib","indication":"jaktinib_mf","title":"Gusacitinib post-PV / post-ET MF NDA submission (label expansion from intermediate/high-risk MF) -- no NMPA acceptance disclosed as of Sep 2026; rolled from Q3'26","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. May 27 2025 NMPA approval covered intermediate/high-risk PMF, PPV-MF and PET-MF per some sources; post-ET/post-PV MF still shown in Ph3 development by third-party trackers. No confirmed separate label-expansion marketing application in H1 2026. Date rolled to H2 2026 pending confirmation.","failTP":46.3302042,"successTP":52.3250177,"baseTP":60.3278245,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"donafenib","indication":"donafenib_hcc","title":"China VBP 2026 cycle impact on donafenib 1L HCC pricing -- no cycle outcome confirmed for donafenib as of Sep 2026; rolled from Q3'26 (donafenib is already in the national reimbursement catalogue for HCC and RAI-refractory DTC)","type":"pricing","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":14.4817163,"successTP":21.2951133,"baseTP":60.3278245,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-32,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-32,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"jaktinib","indication":"jaktinib_mf","title":"Jaktinib FY 2026 MF ramp + post-PV/post-ET MF NDA + RA Ph3 readouts","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://news.futunn.com/en/post/71350876/","_confidence":"high","failTP":56.6135359,"successTP":64.1807837,"baseTP":60.3278245,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"donafenib","indication":"donafenib_hcc","title":"Suzhou Zelgen FY26 annual report + FY27 guide (donafenib + jaktinib full-year + RA Ph3 update)","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":14.4817163,"successTP":21.2951133,"baseTP":60.3278245,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"jaktinib","indication":"jaktinib_mf","title":"Jaktinib Ph3 RA topline (rheumatoid arthritis broader autoimmune label)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":46.5153042,"successTP":64.1807837,"baseTP":60.3278245,"swingPct":29,"successMove":6,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"Q1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"jaktinib","indication":"jaktinib_mf","title":"Jaktinib Ph3 AA (alopecia areata) topline + ex-China BD optionality","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_confidence":"low","failTP":46.5153042,"successTP":64.1807837,"baseTP":60.3278245,"swingPct":29,"successMove":6,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18}],"salesM2025":98,"lenses":{"comparable":62.44,"eeRel":0.2357,"peRel":0.4047}},"688278":{"name":"Xiamen Amoytop Biotech","subtitle":"China cytokine/recombinant protein specialist: Pegbin (Peginterferon alfa-2b WORLD'S FIRST 40kD Y-PEG) for HBV functional cure + rhGM-CSF + rHuG-CSF + rhIL-11; STAR Market; MCap RMB 30B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":408.2,"netCashLocal":224,"cashPS":0.5488,"tps":{"mega_bear":37.07,"bear":49.35,"base":63.5,"bull":83.6,"psychedelic_bull":103.48},"weightedTP":64.96,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hbv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","oncology","oncology.supportive_care","endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.pegylated_ifn_alpha2b","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.csf_il11_portfolio","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.gh","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":126},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":48},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":24},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":126},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":48},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":24},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":13}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":134},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":67},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":26},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":13}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":13,"rarePurityWtd":13,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":24.486,"totalWTD":24.486},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"pegbin","indication":"pegbin_hbv","title":"Pegbin FY 2026 HBV functional cure adoption + pipeline expansion","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.amoytop.com/en/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":53.8502104,"successTP":77.0260966,"baseTP":64.9606345,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":513,"lenses":{"comparable":60.08,"eeRel":0.5987,"peRel":1.2444}},"688319":{"name":"Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China vaccine specialist: tetanus + Hib + GAS + AC meningococcal commercial; Staph aureus Ph3; 9M'25 rev CNY 507M Q3 +25.4% YoY (+19% LTM); MCap RMB 11.9B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":437,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":4.5767,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.43,"bear":6.5,"base":7.52,"bull":8.67,"psychedelic_bull":9.75},"weightedTP":7.28,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial"],"modalities":["vaccine.conjugate.multivalent","vaccine","vaccine.conjugate","vaccine.conjugate.staph_aureus"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":102},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":98},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":51}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":138},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":62},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":31}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":198},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":40,"totalTAM":3.048,"totalWTD":2.171832},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"staph_aureus","indication":"staph_aureus_ph3","title":"Olymvax Staphylococcus aureus Ph3 China readout (first-in-disease potential)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://synapse.patsnap.com/organization/0ddcf6f5cd09d03b76d7e16ef828555f","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.24804677,"successTP":7.30460531,"baseTP":7.28080133,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":95,"lenses":{"comparable":7.17,"eeRel":0.1118}},"688321":{"name":"Shenzhen Chipscreen Biosciences","subtitle":"China HDAC pioneer: chidamide Epidaza (tucidinostat) FIRST oral HDAC inhibitor; PTCL+DLBCL+breast; DLBCL NRDL Jan'25; Q3'25 +50%; MCap RMB 12.9B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":442.94,"netCashLocal":-124.8,"cashPS":-0.2818,"tps":{"mega_bear":13.27,"bear":19.27,"base":25.89,"bull":35.56,"psychedelic_bull":43.63},"weightedTP":26.64,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["small_molecule.epigenetic.hdac_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.epigenetic","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ppar_pan_agonist","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":191},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":96},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":191},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":96},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":55},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":27}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":82.2255,"totalWTD":82.2255},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"chidamide","indication":"chid_dlbcl","title":"Chidamide DLBCL NRDL first full year ramp + OUS expansion update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/national-medical-products-administration-nmpa-approves-chipscreen-biosciences-chidamide-epidaza-combined-with-r-chop-for-the-treatment-of-diffuse-large-b-cell-lymphoma-302131654.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.2615701,"successTP":30.1675576,"baseTP":26.6419843,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":183.7,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","ratioPct":156}]},"lenses":{"comparable":26.44,"eeRel":0.2692,"peRel":0.1922}},"688443":{"name":"Chongqing Genrix Biopharmaceutical","subtitle":"China antibody: GR1801 rabies bispecific + GR1501 IL-17A commercial; GR1803 BCMAxCD3 cond. approved Aug'26 (Fosun royalty); GR1802 IL-4Rα + GR2001 tetanus NDAs filed","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":366.68,"netCashLocal":730.4,"cashPS":1.9919,"tps":{"mega_bear":14.6,"bear":27.27,"base":42.77,"bull":59.22,"psychedelic_bull":74.34},"weightedTP":39.46,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.rabies_pep","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","respiratory","respiratory.upper_airway","infectious_disease.bacterial.tetanus_pep","infectious_disease.bacterial","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.anti_viral_rabies","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il17","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il4ra","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_infective","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bcma_cd3"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":71},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":49},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":49},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":30},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":22},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":22},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":15},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":13},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rabies_pep","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.tetanus_pep","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":70},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":53},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":33},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":18},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":16},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rabies_pep","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.tetanus_pep","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rabies_pep","purity":146},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":73},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.tetanus_pep","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":63.2528,"totalWTD":58.673916},"catalysts":[{"date":"Dec 7 2025","dateSort":"2025-12-07","asset":"gr1501","indication":"gr1501_psoriasis","title":"REPORTED 2025-12-07 (HIT): both xeligekimab indications -- plaque psoriasis and axial spondyloarthritis -- admitted to China's National Reimbursement Drug List, the volume unlock for a domestic IL-17A competing on price with imported secukinumab and ixekizumab","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20250427A06HFO00","failTP":33.5390744,"successTP":37.2629226,"baseTP":39.4624964,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-22","asset":"gr1801","indication":"gr1801_rabies","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-22 (HIT -- APPROVED): NMPA granted the drug registration certificate for silevimig (GR1801, brand Jinsuxi) in adult rabies post-exposure passive immunisation -- world's first approved rabies bispecific antibody; Ph3 had met its primary efficacy endpoint and the NDA was accepted Jan 2025","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":86,"_source":"https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260622A0ASVL00","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":13.2717875,"successTP":52.7642937,"baseTP":39.4624964,"swingPct":100,"successMove":34,"failMove":-66,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":34,"daysOut":null,"materiality":66},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"gr1803","indication":"gr1803_rrmm","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-27 (HIT -- CONDITIONALLY APPROVED): NMPA conditional approval of velinotamig (GR1803) in adult RRMM after >=3 prior lines -- China's first BCMA x CD3 bispecific; MAH Fosun Yaoyou; triggers RMB 250M approval milestone to Genrix","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260827A0BLJO00","_outcome":"success","failTP":39.0358366,"successTP":39.5966841,"baseTP":39.4624964,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"gr2001","indication":"gr2001_tetanus","title":"NMPA decision: GR2001 anti-tetanus mAb, passive immunisation (NDA accepted May 2025, Breakthrough; review reported near completion Aug 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260830A08SO900","failTP":38.306286,"successTP":40.1634931,"baseTP":39.4624964,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":79,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"gr1802","indication":"gr1802_ad","title":"NMPA decision: GR1802 telikibart, adult moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis (NDA accepted Sep 2025)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-02-27/doc-inhpftin3742588.shtml","failTP":36.3251804,"successTP":41.6881508,"baseTP":39.4624964,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"gr1802","indication":"gr1802_sar","title":"NMPA decision: GR1802 telikibart, adult seasonal allergic rhinitis (NDA accepted Feb 26 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/bxjj/2026-02-26/doc-inhpcusn1477685.shtml","failTP":37.9270715,"successTP":40.5225527,"baseTP":39.4624964,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":13.75,"sanity":{"flags":["share_severe"],"maxShare":{"pct":92,"ceilPct":50,"position":"unpositioned","asset":"gr1801","ind":"gr1801_rabies","area":"infectious_disease.viral.rabies_pep","somB":0.5,"tamB":0.5}},"lenses":{"comparable":33.44}},"688520":{"name":"Sinocelltech Group","subtitle":"China recombinant protein + mAb + vaccine specialist: SCT-I10A PD-L1 Ph3 solid tumors + SCT800 (Anjiayin) Hem A + SCT200 EGFR; STAR; MCap RMB 17.5B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":441,"netCashLocal":2500,"cashPS":5.6689,"tps":{"mega_bear":13.13,"bear":17.75,"base":22.51,"bull":29.79,"psychedelic_bull":36.04},"weightedTP":22.03,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.hcc","oncology","oncology.gi","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pdl1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","_diversified.mixed.mab_recombinant","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":128},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":64}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":109},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":46}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":178},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":11}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":52,"totalTAM":10.1585,"totalWTD":6.689328},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sct_i10a","indication":"sct_i10a_solid","title":"SCT-I10A PD-L1 Ph3 solid tumors readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/sha/688520/company/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":19.5845952,"successTP":23.6178653,"baseTP":22.0327843,"swingPct":18,"successMove":7,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":23.58},"readouts":[{"a":"sct_i10a","ind":"sct_i10a_solid","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.gi.hcc","endpoint":"mos_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":15.4886883,"lo":7.32514846,"hi":21.4421051,"pBeatBest":0.1177,"bestDrug":"atezolizumab + bevacizumab","bestValue":19.2}]},"688578":{"name":"Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"3rd-gen EGFR TKI furmonertinib NMPA 1L NSCLC + NRDL; broad mutations Exon20/PACC; FY25 rev RMB 4.73B +31.8% (vs FY24 RMB 3.59B); op income RMB 2.48B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":450,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":4.4444,"tps":{"mega_bear":45.55,"bear":56.27,"base":69.01,"bull":92.2,"psychedelic_bull":114.84},"weightedTP":72.41,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.egfr_3gen","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":17.36,"totalWTD":17.36},"catalysts":[{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"furmonertinib","indication":"furm_nsclc","title":"Furmonertinib FURTHER Ph3 Exon 20 insertions NSCLC topline + China expansion","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.allist.com.cn/en/newsd/102/46.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":57.7102656,"successTP":88.3465258,"baseTP":72.4135334,"swingPct":42,"successMove":22,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":22,"daysOut":null,"materiality":94}],"salesM2025":670,"lenses":{"comparable":71.58,"eeRel":0.8284,"peRel":1.2164},"readouts":[{"a":"furmonertinib","ind":"furm_nsclc","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":19.3234768,"lo":5.83493774,"hi":32.9118837,"pBeatBest":0.19125,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5}]},"688658":{"name":"Youcare Pharmaceutical Group","subtitle":"China diversified pharma (Beijing): antibiotics + CV + GI + dermatology + antiviral + antineoplastic + hypoglycemic; MCap RMB 9.67B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":448,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":3.3482,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.45,"bear":14.88,"base":18.22,"bull":22.34,"psychedelic_bull":27.44},"weightedTP":17.85,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.youcare_multi_therapeutic","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":4,"totalWTD":4},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"youcare_franchise","indication":"youcare_diversified","title":"Youcare FY 2026: VBP/Ginkgo price-cut stabilization vs further decline","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-02-27/doc-inhphcxe6657639.shtml","_confidence":"high","_note":"FY2025 already reported: rev CN¥2.446B (-35.3% YoY), first net loss since IPO (CN¥254M), Ginkgo biloba injection price halved (24.1->11.2 RMB/unit) on pricing-scandal + VBP; cardio-cerebral rev -49.5%; 4 consecutive years of revenue decline. Scenarios re-cut to distress (trough-to-modest-recovery).","failTP":15.017575,"successTP":21.3353025,"baseTP":17.8549977,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24}],"salesM2025":343,"lenses":{"comparable":19.14}},"950160":{"name":"Kolon TissueGene","subtitle":"Korean cell+gene therapy TG-C (ex-Invossa-K) US OA -- ACTiVION-II Ph3 FAILED Jul'26 (stock -30%, headcount cut); sole path now ACTiVION-I topline Oct'26; OA market $2.8B G7; MCap ~KRW 2.2T","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":83.22,"netCashLocal":100000,"cashPS":1201.6342,"tps":{"mega_bear":225.43,"bear":945.03,"base":1990.3,"bull":5684.03,"psychedelic_bull":8856.29},"weightedTP":1634.37,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.chondrocyte_tgfb1","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":535,"totalTAM":6.77,"totalWTD":1.066275},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 20 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-20","asset":"tgc","indication":"tgc_oa","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-20: TG-C ACTiVION-II Ph3 FAILED both co-primary endpoints (VAS pain -38.6 vs placebo -39.1; total WOMAC -26.34 vs -27.57) + all key secondaries missed; strong placebo response. Second pivotal ACTiVION-I (Oct'26) now sole path.","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/kolons-cell-based-gene-therapy-fails-phase-3-osteoarthritis-trial ; https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/kolon-tissuegenes-stock-drops-on-phase-iii-knee-osteoarthritis-trial-failure/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"ACTiVION-II (NCT03291470, n=532) missed both co-primaries + all key secondaries Jul 20 2026; stock -30%. Config previously conflated the two ~530pt pivotals into one binary; only ACTiVION-II resolved (fail). pos/apr moved down toward fail (graduated, not full-collapse) to preserve surviving ACTiVION-I optionality. See ACTiVION-I catalyst.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":321.732487,"successTP":12198.6115,"baseTP":1634.36706,"swingPct":726,"successMove":646,"failMove":-80,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":174,"daysOut":null,"materiality":100},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"tgc","indication":"tgc_oa","title":"TG-C ACTiVION-I (NCT03203330) Ph3 topline -- now make-or-break after ACTiVION-II failure; lone surviving pivotal, elevated risk post co-twin miss","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/kolon-tissuegenes-stock-drops-on-phase-iii-knee-osteoarthritis-trial-failure/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":6515.10392,"baseTP":1634.36706,"swingPct":399,"successMove":299,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":40,"daysOut":null,"materiality":100}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5049.35}},"000100":{"name":"Yuhan Corporation","subtitle":"Korea pharma leader | FY25 KRW 2.1T / ~$1.55B (Korea ETC + OTC + animal health + US generics) | Lazcluze (lazertinib) J&J partnership ~KRW 20B FY25 royalty + first OS readout MARIPOSA","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":74.8,"netCashLocal":800000,"cashPS":10695.1872,"tps":{"mega_bear":47332.98,"bear":64171.44,"base":82554.06,"bull":122995.52,"psychedelic_bull":197862.07},"weightedTP":91935.61,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.yuhan_legacy","_established_products","_royalty.yuhan_lazcluze","_royalty","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.specialty","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.kinase.egfr_3g","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.ige_trap","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_fgf21","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":127},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":63},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":37},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":37},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":37},{"area":"_established_products.yuhan_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.yuhan_lazcluze","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":81},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":81},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":81},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":39},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":19},{"area":"_established_products.yuhan_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.yuhan_lazcluze","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":98},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":98},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":98},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.yuhan_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.yuhan_lazcluze","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":293,"totalTAM":37.555104,"totalWTD":9.559304},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"lazcluze_royalty","indication":"nsclc_egfrm_yuhan","title":"Lazcluze+Rybrevant 1L EGFRm NSCLC -- MARIPOSA OS-positive label expansion driving royalty growth","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"J&J/Yuhan disclosures","_confidence":"high","failTP":91935.6142,"successTP":91935.6142,"baseTP":91935.6142,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"yh35324","indication":"urticaria_yh35324","title":"YH35324 (resigercept) Ph2 chronic urticaria/atopic readout (out-licensing optionality)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Yuhan pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":91935.0451,"successTP":91935.9537,"baseTP":91935.6142,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1465,"lenses":{"comparable":139139.39,"eeRel":0.9805},"readouts":[{"a":"yh35324","ind":"urticaria_yh35324","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.667393,"lo":10.5086651,"hi":90.8448115,"pBeatBest":0.08495,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"000250":{"name":"Sam Chun Dang Pharm","subtitle":"Korean ophthalmic specialist (~60% rev): FY25 rev KRW 231.8B +10%; SCD411 Eylea biosim approved Canada Jun'25 / EU Aug'25 / Korea+Japan Sep'25 (vial+PFS); MCap KRW 11.7T","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":23.79,"netCashLocal":50000,"cashPS":2101.7234,"tps":{"mega_bear":23797.37,"bear":33547.42,"base":38180.73,"bull":51348.55,"psychedelic_bull":55452.45},"weightedTP":40382.06,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap_biosimilar","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","_diversified.branded.generics_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":9.5,"totalWTD":9.5},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"scd411","indication":"scd411_nvamd","title":"SCD411 Eylea biosim FY 2026 commercial ramp Canada + EU + Korea + Japan","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Chun_Dang_Pharm","_confidence":"high","failTP":33444.0822,"successTP":46979.2921,"baseTP":40382.0565,"swingPct":10,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28}],"salesM2025":170,"lenses":{"comparable":27086.69}},"000403":{"name":"Pacific Shuanglin Bio-pharmacy","subtitle":"China plasma blood products: human albumin + IVIG + tetanus/rabies immunoglobulin; 38 plasma stations; Guangdong Phase II 1,500 tons; FY25 rev RMB 2.63B (~$368M), NI RMB 419M (-44% YoY); MCap RMB","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":950.4,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":2.1044,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.51,"bear":5.34,"base":6.19,"bull":7.67,"psychedelic_bull":9.12},"weightedTP":6.27,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.albumin_ivig","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":8,"totalWTD":8},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"shuanglin_plasma","indication":"shuanglin_plasma_franchise","title":"Shuanglin Guangdong Phase II commercial production launch -- 1,500 ton capacity (post H2 2025 slip)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/000403:CH","_confidence":"high","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; Guangdong Shuanglin Phase II (1,500-ton capacity) was guided to commence H2 2025 but no confirmation of commercial production launch found; date rolled ~1Q.","failTP":5.57655684,"successTP":7.07392639,"baseTP":6.27119195,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":360,"lenses":{"comparable":13.71,"peRel":0.961}},"000513":{"name":"Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.","subtitle":"Chinese specialty + biosimilars | TTM CNY 11.85B (FY24 CNY 11.81B); Q1 2026 CNY 3.26B MISSED CNY 3.60B est (-9.5%) | Branded Rx (anti-infective, GI, CNS, CV) + biosimilars + APIs","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":940,"netCashLocal":4500,"cashPS":4.7872,"tps":{"mega_bear":16.49,"bear":26.81,"base":42.02,"bull":64.36,"psychedelic_bull":113.3},"weightedTP":45.73,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.china_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.china_branded_rx","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 23 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-04-23","asset":"livzon_branded_rx","indication":"livzon_rx","title":"REPORTED: Livzon Q1 2026 REPORTED: revenue CNY 3.26B (MISSED CNY 3.60B est -9.5%); EPS $0.74 vs $0.82 est (-9.7%)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Livzon Q1 2026 results","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-04-23 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":45.7340426,"successTP":45.7340426,"baseTP":45.7340426,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"livzon_branded_rx","indication":"livzon_rx","title":"REPORTED: Livzon FY25 + Q1 2026 results reported (Q1 -9.5% YoY confirmed; FY25 challenges from VBP rounds on existing portfolio)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Livzon IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":45.7340426,"successTP":45.7340426,"baseTP":45.7340426,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1400,"lenses":{"comparable":52.94,"peRel":0.6787}},"000538":{"name":"Yunnan Baiyao Group Co Ltd","subtitle":"Largest TCM company by revenue (RMB 41B FY25, +3%); flagship Yunnan Baiyao secret-formula brand: hemostatic + toothpaste #1 China >20% share + aerosol RMB 2.5B (+22%) + ointment (+26%) + plaster +...","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1780,"netCashLocal":15000,"cashPS":8.427,"tps":{"mega_bear":31.57,"bear":50.08,"base":77.85,"bull":112.56,"psychedelic_bull":170.41},"weightedTP":84.67,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products","_established_products.stada_otc","_established_products.diversified_legacy"],"modalities":["biological_extract.tcm.toothpaste_brand","biological_extract","biological_extract.tcm","biological_extract.tcm.hemostatic_topical","biological_extract.tcm.rx_capsules","_diversified.distribution.china_wholesale","_diversified","_diversified.distribution"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ynb_pharma","indication":"ynb_rx_div","title":"Yunnan Baiyao 2026 innovation pivot + Juyuetang TCM acq integration","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Yunnan Baiyao FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":84.6747472,"successTP":84.6747472,"baseTP":84.6747472,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4795,"lenses":{"comparable":87.7,"peRel":1.0966}},"000661":{"name":"Changchun High & New Technology Industries Group Inc.","subtitle":"Chinese growth hormone leader (GenSci) | NRDL Jan'26 long-acting GH price cut: Q1'26 rev -13.7%, PAT -41.7% YoY | FY26E ~CNY10.8B | GenSci098 licensed to Yarrow ($70M upfront)","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":424,"netCashLocal":8000,"cashPS":18.8679,"tps":{"mega_bear":36.79,"bear":54.95,"base":82.55,"bull":132.08,"psychedelic_bull":216.98},"weightedTP":91.37,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","_established_products.china_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.gh","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone","_diversified.branded.china_specialty","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":200},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.china_branded","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":200},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.china_branded","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":3.136,"totalWTD":3.136},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"growth_hormone","indication":"hgh","title":"REPORTED: Changchun High-Tech Q1 2026 results reported; growth hormone NRDL VBP trajectory tracking (long-acting GH share gain partially offsetting short-acting price pressure)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Changchun High-Tech IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":91.3679245,"successTP":91.3679245,"baseTP":91.3679245,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"growth_hormone","indication":"hgh","title":"GenSci074 / GS1-144 (NK3R antagonist) Phase 3 MRCT initiation in menopausal VMS [ROLLED from 2026-08-15: GenSci guided a Q2 2026 MRCT start at JPM 2026, but as of Aug 18 2026 no Phase 3 is registered on clinicaltrials.gov. What IS registered is the supporting Ph1 package started Apr-May 2026 -- ADME NCT07537231 (active), smoking-PK NCT07534176 (recruiting), hepatic-impairment NCT07491289 (not yet recruiting) -- i.e. the global filing package is being assembled and the Ph3 has slipped, not been cancelled. No assumption change; re-check for an NCT registration.]","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":95,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.genscigroup.com/en/news/media/185 + clinicaltrials.gov (GS1-144)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.genscigroup.com/en/news/media/185","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"JPM 2026 presentation confirmed Q2 2026 Phase 3 start for NK3R antagonist after positive Phase 2 China results","failTP":91.3679245,"successTP":91.3679245,"baseTP":91.3679245,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":109.28,"eeRel":0.8401}},"000766":{"name":"Tonghua Golden-Horse Pharmaceutical Industry","subtitle":"China diversified pharma (TCM + chemical + bulk drugs): 9M 2025 rev CNY 892M (-7.9% YoY); MCap RMB 24.89B May 7 2026","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":967,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":1.5512,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.28,"bear":5.08,"base":5.83,"bull":7.03,"psychedelic_bull":8.23},"weightedTP":5.76,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.tcm_chemical_bulk","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":6.016,"totalWTD":6.016},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"tonghua_diversified","indication":"tonghua_portfolio","title":"Tonghua H1 FY 2026 interim results + outlook","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/tonghua-golden-horse-pharmaceutical-industry-co-ltd-reports-earnings-results-for-the-nine-months-end-ce7d5ddedd8ef32d","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.13618219,"successTP":6.59769954,"baseTP":5.75818688,"swingPct":8,"successMove":5,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":170,"lenses":{"comparable":6.1,"peRel":0.6464}},"000908":{"name":"CSPC Hunan Jingfeng Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China CSPC subsidiary: injections + emulsions + capsules + herbal; TTM rev $55M; recent ~100% dilution; MCap RMB 12.4B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":1650,"netCashLocal":800,"cashPS":0.4848,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.68,"bear":0.79,"base":0.91,"bull":1.11,"psychedelic_bull":1.24},"weightedTP":0.89,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.injections_capsules_herbal","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1.5,"totalWTD":1.5},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"jingfeng_franchise","indication":"jingfeng_diversified","title":"Jingfeng FY 2026 CSPC subsidiary update + new product launches","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/cn/pharmaceuticals-biotech/szse-000908/cspc-hunan-jingfeng-pharmaceutical-shares","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.819623881,"successTP":0.988136105,"baseTP":0.890968623,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":55,"lenses":{"comparable":1.3}},"000963":{"name":"Huadong Medicine Co Ltd","subtitle":"China pharma (RMB 43.6B FY25): industrial + distribution, GLP-1 franchise (Lilupin; HDM1002/HDM1005 Ph3), Elahere FRa ADC, Sinclair aesthetics (H1'26 -41%)","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1754,"netCashLocal":3568,"cashPS":2.0342,"tps":{"mega_bear":12.91,"bear":30.21,"base":47.37,"bull":74.31,"psychedelic_bull":123.47},"weightedTP":53.62,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","immunology.transplant.solid_organ","immunology","immunology.transplant","dermatology.aesthetics.filler","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.liraglutide_biosimilar","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","_diversified.branded.immunosuppressants","_diversified","_diversified.branded","aesthetic_or_other.filler.hyaluronic","aesthetic_or_other","aesthetic_or_other.filler","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.fralpha","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.triple_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr.glp1_oral","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip_dual","_diversified.branded.china_manufacturing"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":154},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":77},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":42},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":156},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":78},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":39},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":144},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":72},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":56},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":44,"totalTAM":747.88,"totalWTD":518.469},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"dr10624","indication":"dr10624_obesity","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED -- DR10624 Ph2 in severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG) COMPLETED with positive unblinded topline: up to 89% reduction in liver fat and >70% relative reduction in triglycerides from baseline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Huadong Medicine / Doer Biologics disclosure; MarketScreener coverage","_confidence":"medium","failTP":53.4901117,"successTP":53.7202939,"baseTP":53.6162441,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":57,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"huadong_distribution","indication":"hd_div","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-31: 12th national VBP batch -- WON cyclosporine/tacrolimus/mesalazine (RMB 2.08B 2025 sales, lower prices); LOST isavuconazole inj, pioglitazone/metformin, indobufen, alogliptin (RMB 4.63B, 10.6% of revenue, public-hospital volume loss expected); Sinclair not in VBP","type":"pricing","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Ongoing multi-year VBP price erosion on legacy generics/immunosuppressants (~22%/yr) rather than a discrete H1 event; 8th national VBP (39 drugs, ~56% avg cut) is the current cycle. Sinclair aesthetics largely ex-VBP (self-pay/global). No single resolved catalyst.","_source":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-03/1225452807.PDF","failTP":53.6162441,"successTP":53.6162441,"baseTP":53.6162441,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"dr10624","indication":"dr10624_obesity","title":"DR10624 triple agonist Ph2 MASH/MASLD (DR10624-202, n=110) topline DISCLOSURE -- results obtained Q3 2026 per H1'26 report (Aug 27 2026) but withheld for an academic conference; direction unknown (binary, separate from obesity)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_confidence":"medium","_note":"2026-09-15 self-audit: topline in hand at the company, not yet public -- cannot resolve; date kept as disclosure estimate","failTP":53.4625437,"successTP":53.7019269,"baseTP":53.6162441,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":57,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"huadong_distribution","indication":"hd_div","title":"Huadong Medicine FY26 annual report + FY27 guide (Lilupin + Sinclair + DR10624 update)","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":53.6162441,"successTP":53.6162441,"baseTP":53.6162441,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"dr10624","indication":"dr10624_obesity","title":"DR10624 obesity Ph2 topline -- ROLLED from Sep 2026: no obesity Ph2 found in company disclosures (Jul 2026 IR lists sHTG, MASLD, HFpEF/HFmrEF; obesity 'exploring'). UNVERIFIED that such a trial is running; no assumption change","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Huadong pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":53.4901117,"successTP":53.7202939,"baseTP":53.6162441,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":57,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"dr10624","indication":"dr10624_obesity","title":"DR10624 Ph3 obesity initiation + potential ex-China licensing deal","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":53.4576789,"successTP":53.5428359,"baseTP":53.6162441,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":57,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"sinclair_aesthetics","indication":"sinclair_aest","title":"Sinclair Ellanse global expansion update (US FDA filing + APAC rollout)","type":"launch","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":53.6162441,"successTP":53.6162441,"baseTP":53.6162441,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4200,"lenses":{"comparable":71.78,"eeRel":1.0444,"peRel":1.9478},"readouts":[{"a":"dr10624","ind":"dr10624_obesity","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.132713,"lo":2.86976893,"hi":29.1200124,"pBeatBest":0.12585,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"dr10624","ind":"dr10624_obesity","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1445861,"lo":3.0474642,"hi":29.0118263,"pBeatBest":0.1226,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"dr10624","ind":"dr10624_obesity","ds":"2026-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1629696,"lo":2.58964087,"hi":29.178243,"pBeatBest":0.12435,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"000999":{"name":"China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.","subtitle":"Chinese TCM + Rx leader | FY25 CNY 31.6B (+14.43%); net profit CNY 3.42B (+1.58%) | 999 brand OTC + Rx Chinese medicine injections + formula granules + Tian Shi Li acquisition 2025","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1660,"netCashLocal":10000,"cashPS":6.0241,"tps":{"mega_bear":15.96,"bear":21.9,"base":28.89,"bull":40.72,"psychedelic_bull":63.86},"weightedTP":30.96,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.china_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.china_branded_otc","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.china_branded_rx"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"rx_drugs","indication":"rx_div","title":"REPORTED: Sanjiu Q1 2026 results reported + Tian Shi Li integration update (cardiovascular OTC integration progressing per plan)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Sanjiu IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":30.9578313,"successTP":30.9578313,"baseTP":30.9578313,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"rx_drugs","indication":"rx_div","title":"HiCM-188 Phase 2 heart failure China trial topline data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":95,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/help-therapeutics-and-china-resources-sanjiu-announce-strategic-partnership-to-co-develop-and-commercialize-hicm-188-for-advanced-heart-failure-302482243.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Partnership with HELP Therapeutics for iPSC-derived cell therapy; Phase 2 ongoing in China with primary completion estimated H2 2026","failTP":30.9578313,"successTP":30.9578313,"baseTP":30.9578313,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4500,"lenses":{"comparable":77.43,"peRel":1.25}},"002007":{"name":"Hualan Biological Engineering Inc.","subtitle":"Chinese plasma + vaccines | H1'26 rev CNY1.567B (-12.8%), net profit CNY383M (-26.4%) on VAT change + regulatory pressure | FY25 CNY4.60B, profit CNY940M (-13.6%) | Plasma + flu vaccines","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1830,"netCashLocal":3500,"cashPS":1.9126,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.44,"bear":8.06,"base":12.4,"bull":19.62,"psychedelic_bull":33.88},"weightedTP":13.7,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.china_branded","_established_products","infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines"],"modalities":["biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.diversified","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation","vaccine.protein_subunit.influenza_quadrivalent","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.china_branded","purity":147},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":53},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":27}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.china_branded","purity":147},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":53},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":27}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":20.064,"totalWTD":20.064},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-28","asset":"vaccines_hualan","indication":"vaccines_div","title":"REPORTED: H1 2026 -- revenue RMB 1.567B (-12.8% from RMB 1.798B), net profit RMB 383.35M (-26.4% from RMB 515.86M), EPS RMB 0.21; negative operating cash flow; VAT policy change raised the effective tax burden on both plasma and vaccine segments","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Hualan Biological H1 2026 interim report","_confidence":"high","_note":"RESOLVED -- MATERIALLY WEAK, and the deterioration is accelerating: FY2025 net profit was already -13.55% and H1 2026 fell -26.4% on a -12.8% revenue decline. Drivers are a VAT policy change that raised tax rates across the business plus broader regulatory pressure, not a one-off. NO ASSUMPTION CHANGE WAS POSSIBLE HERE: both assets are commercial-classified in a SOTP config, so their pos/apr/pen are skipped by the engine entirely and commercialRevM is the only live lever -- which is valuation structure. See the _dataNote flag.","failTP":13.7035519,"successTP":13.7035519,"baseTP":13.7035519,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":600,"lenses":{"comparable":8.86,"eeRel":0.6437,"peRel":0.4035}},"002294":{"name":"Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"China CV+devices: Q3'25 rev RMB 1.11B +15.85%; TTM RMB 4.25B +8.76%; clopidogrel + tirofiban + cardiac devices; stock +106% YoY; MCap RMB 69B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":1110,"netCashLocal":3000,"cashPS":2.7027,"tps":{"mega_bear":17.54,"bear":21.6,"base":25.12,"bull":31.76,"psychedelic_bull":35.55},"weightedTP":25.75,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.cardiovascular_devices","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":13.2,"totalWTD":13.2},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"salubris_cv","indication":"salubris_diversified","title":"Salubris FY 2026 revenue execution + device segment growth","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.salubris.com/en/NewsUpdates/info_itemid_4654.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":22.0390102,"successTP":29.7694312,"baseTP":25.7524848,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":617,"lenses":{"comparable":26.88,"peRel":1.0186}},"002317":{"name":"Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China Dongguan diversified pharma: TCM cultivation + chemical drugs + medicinal herbs + pharma trade; TTM rev $339M; MCap RMB ~19.5B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":851.56,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":1.7615,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.21,"bear":6.39,"base":7.62,"bull":9.42,"psychedelic_bull":11.04},"weightedTP":7.43,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.tcm.herbal_chemical_legacy","_diversified","_diversified.tcm"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1.9082,"totalWTD":1.9082},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zhongsheng_diversified","indication":"zhongsheng_franchise","title":"Zhongsheng FY 2026 diversified franchise update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xshe/002317/quote","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.5068763,"successTP":8.66138415,"baseTP":7.43054122,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23}],"salesM2025":339,"lenses":{"comparable":12.76,"peRel":0.6077}},"002332":{"name":"Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China steroid hormone+API leader: gynec+anesthesia+respiratory+derm+corticosteroid+sex hormone+progesterone APIs; H1'25 -12.6%; VBP pressure; MCap RMB 11.4B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":989,"netCashLocal":2500,"cashPS":2.5278,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.67,"bear":6.97,"base":8.44,"bull":10.41,"psychedelic_bull":12.05},"weightedTP":8.07,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.steroid_hormone_api","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":8,"totalWTD":8},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xianju_franchise","indication":"xianju_diversified","title":"Xianju FY 2026 stabilization + respiratory growth update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://news.futunn.com/en/post/61268624/xianju-pharmaceutical-002332-steady-growth-in-respiratory-medicine-anticipating-potential","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.99831288,"successTP":9.60576146,"baseTP":8.07007809,"swingPct":10,"successMove":6,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":542,"lenses":{"comparable":13.78,"peRel":0.8828}},"002653":{"name":"Haisco Pharmaceutical Group","subtitle":"Chinese pharma diversified: AbbVie Apr'26 $745M Nav1.8 pain deal ($30M up + $715M MS); HSK7653 oral DPP-4i Ph3 T2D; FY24 rev RMB 4.04B (+11%) / NI +34%; 50+ programs; MCap RMB 66.9B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":1115,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":1.7937,"tps":{"mega_bear":19.65,"bear":24.29,"base":27.03,"bull":32.98,"psychedelic_bull":35.67},"weightedTP":27.37,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology","hematology.hemolytic"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.diversified","_diversified","_diversified.mixed","small_molecule.enzyme.dpp4","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.enzyme.complement_factor_b"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":147},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":73},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":33},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":147},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":73},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":33},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":185},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":10,"rarePurityWtd":10,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":106.896,"totalWTD":106.896},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"hsk7653","indication":"hsk7653_t2d","title":"RESOLVED (approved 2024): HSK7653 cofrogliptin (Beichangping) NMPA-approved 2024 for adult T2D, biweekly oral DPP-4i; NRDL-listed","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://synapse.patsnap.com/organization/8a4752a4e5e1fab8ab074b148eba6558","_confidence":"medium","failTP":26.3133544,"successTP":27.6414123,"baseTP":27.3700463,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":609,"lenses":{"comparable":23.32,"eeRel":0.1395,"peRel":0.3433}},"002755":{"name":"Beijing Aosaikang Pharmaceutical","subtitle":"China specialty: PPI injection portfolio + oncology + APIs + chronic; Innovent Oyi Xin icotinib 3G EGFR-TKI commercial deal; FY25 rev CNY 1.78B; MCap RMB 18B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":1014,"netCashLocal":2500,"cashPS":2.4655,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.4,"bear":7.99,"base":9.76,"bull":12.51,"psychedelic_bull":14.23},"weightedTP":9.84,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.ppi_oncology_chronic","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":3.5,"totalWTD":3.5},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"aosaikang_ppi_onc","indication":"aosaikang_franchise","title":"Aosaikang FY 2026 + Innovent Oyi Xin (icotinib 3G EGFR-TKI) commercial scale","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/quote/she/002755/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.38687297,"successTP":11.4444258,"baseTP":9.84179485,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":249,"lenses":{"comparable":10.46,"peRel":1.1173}},"002773":{"name":"Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical Group","subtitle":"China ophthalmology + CNS leader: Conbercept (Lumitin) anti-VEGF retinal disease NRDL Cat B 2025; +16% LTM rev; TTM $624M; MCap RMB 22B","currency":"CNY","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":921,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":2.1716,"tps":{"mega_bear":9.24,"bear":12.92,"base":16.36,"bull":22.1,"psychedelic_bull":27.54},"weightedTP":16.68,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","_diversified.mixed.cns_gi_endocrine","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":9.5,"totalWTD":9.5},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"conbercept","indication":"conbercept_retinal","title":"Conbercept FY 2026 NRDL Cat B ramp + next-gen ophthalmology progress","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://news.futunn.com/en/post/65885337/kanghong-pharmaceutical-002773-sz-conbercept-ophthalmic-injection-has-been-included","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.2342548,"successTP":20.5282918,"baseTP":16.6841444,"swingPct":13,"successMove":7,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26}],"salesM2025":624,"lenses":{"comparable":12.1,"eeRel":0.9579,"peRel":0.8392}},"003850":{"name":"Boryung Co. Ltd.","subtitle":"Korean cardio + oncology distribution; Kanarb (fimasartan) ARB target ₩200B 2026 + oncology distribution franchise (Lacros, Cabaplatin, Taxotere global rights from Sanofi €175M base / up to €189M...","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":86.8,"netCashLocal":-253833,"cashPS":-2924.3433,"tps":{"mega_bear":6623.74,"bear":8055.98,"base":11159.2,"bull":14620.48,"psychedelic_bull":19752.74},"weightedTP":11761.94,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","oncology.lymphoma"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.angiotensin_at1","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","_diversified.branded.oncology_distribution","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.consumer.diversified","_diversified.consumer","_diversified.branded.korea_branded","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_dna_pk","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":180},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":90},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":183},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":92},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":7,"rarePurityWtd":5,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":47.611,"totalWTD":46.7906225},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kanarb","indication":"kanarb_htn","title":"Kanarb line KRW 200B 2026 target + reimbursement resolution (Q2'26 hit by one-off Kanarb price-cut provision; Kanarb family Q2 KRW 38.8B, +23% ex-provision; Kanarb Jet triple launched Jun 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Boryung guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":11761.9423,"successTP":11761.9423,"baseTP":11761.9423,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"boryung_oncology","indication":"boryung_onc_div","title":"Taxotere global rollout milestones (Sanofi EUR 175M acq Aug 2025) -- global sales booked from Jun 2026; Sep 2026 China 7-yr USD 277M supply deal signed","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Boryung-Sanofi deal","_confidence":"high","failTP":11761.9423,"successTP":11761.9423,"baseTP":11761.9423,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1030,"lenses":{"comparable":29614.56,"eeRel":1.1059}},"006280":{"name":"GC Biopharma Corp. (Green Cross)","subtitle":"Korean plasma fractionation + rare disease leader; Alyglo IVIG-SN US ramp ₩150B (+117%) + Hunterase ERT Hunter syndrome ₩74B (+20%) + Barycela varicella vaccine ₩32B (>2x) + plasma proteins","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":11.4,"netCashLocal":-871600,"cashPS":-76456.1404,"tps":{"mega_bear":28274.46,"bear":80642.56,"base":167923.08,"bull":307572.03,"psychedelic_bull":534501.66},"weightedTP":201089.74,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids"],"modalities":["biologic.plasma_derived.ivig.standard","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.ivig","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.iduronate_sulfatase","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","vaccine.live_attenuated.diversified","vaccine","vaccine.live_attenuated","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.diversified","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","_diversified.branded.korea_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_sgsh","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.iduronate_sulfatase_it"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":84},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":42},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":33},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":17},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":91},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":45},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":36},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":36},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":36},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":21},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.mmr_varicella","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":19,"rarePurityWtd":12,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":51.11988,"totalWTD":47.2879363},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-04","asset":"alyglo","indication":"alyglo_pidd","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-04): GC Biopharma H1 2026 -- Q1 revenue KRW 435.5B (+13.5% YoY), operating profit KRW 11.7B (+46.3%), net KRW 20.1B; Q2 revenue KRW 421.2B (-16% YoY) with operating profit KRW 1.7B (-94%) on deferred sales; ALYGLO Q1 KRW 34.9B (~4x YoY) and Q2 KRW 40.5B, cumulative >KRW 100B, tracking the ~$150M annual target; H2 rebound guided on flu vaccine + Alyglo","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/08/04/gc-biopharma-q2-profit-slumps-on-deferred-sales-recovery","_confidence":"medium","failTP":201089.739,"successTP":201089.739,"baseTP":201089.739,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"alyglo","indication":"alyglo_pidd","title":"Alyglo US scale-up to ₩200B+ + ex-US filings","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"GC Biopharma FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":201089.739,"successTP":201089.739,"baseTP":201089.739,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"gc1130a","indication":"gc1130_mps3a","title":"GC1130A AAV9 Sanfilippo A Ph1 US/KR completion + WORLD Symposium 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"GC pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":201089.739,"successTP":201089.739,"baseTP":201089.739,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1965,"lenses":{"comparable":514005.27,"eeRel":1.2351}},"009420":{"name":"HanAll Biopharma","subtitle":"Korean FcRn: IMVT-1402 5 registrational Ph3 (GD/MG/CIDP/D2T RA/SjD) Immunovant-partnered -- STRONG RA Ph2 May'26 (ACR20 72.7%); commercial KRW 133B +13%; MCap KRW 1.99T","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":50.86,"netCashLocal":350000,"cashPS":6881.6359,"tps":{"mega_bear":6188.48,"bear":7816.55,"base":10835.19,"bull":15126.85,"psychedelic_bull":18124.49},"weightedTP":10617.43,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_fcrn","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":165},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":83},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":17}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":137,"totalTAM":37.852,"totalWTD":15.955784},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"imvt_1402","indication":"imvt1402_autoimmune","title":"IMVT-1402 Ph3 progression (RA + MG + Graves + CIDP) + Roivant milestones","type":"phase3_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":32,"fail_apr":42,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/05/26/hanall-biopharmas-imvt-1402-shows-strong-results-in","_confidence":"high","failTP":6721.65161,"successTP":13965.8193,"baseTP":10617.431,"swingPct":21,"successMove":10,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":13458.62}},"0460":{"name":"Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd.","subtitle":"China cardio legacy pivoting hard into medical aesthetics; Letybo botulinum (Hugel exclusive distrib >8K institutions) + PLLA/PCL fillers + facial revitalizer + Anaprazole (Class 1 innovative PPI,...","currency":"HKD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":9200,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":0.163,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.73,"bear":1.02,"base":1.3,"bull":1.73,"psychedelic_bull":2.16},"weightedTP":1.38,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","dermatology.aesthetics.filler","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids"],"modalities":["biological_extract.botulinum.toxin_type_a","biological_extract","biological_extract.botulinum","aesthetic_or_other.filler.biodegradable","aesthetic_or_other","aesthetic_or_other.filler","aesthetic_or_other.skincare.brazil_premium","aesthetic_or_other.skincare","small_molecule.transporter.proton_pump_ppi","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","_diversified.branded.china_innovative","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.cv_legacy"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":84},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":58},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":42},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":33},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":22},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":84},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":58},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":42},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":33},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":22},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":51.35698,"totalWTD":51.35698},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"letybo_distrib","indication":"letybo_aest","title":"Letybo botulinum continued aesthetics share gain China + new aesthetic launches","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Sihuan FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.38048913,"successTP":1.38048913,"baseTP":1.38048913,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2620,"lenses":{"comparable":1.43,"eeRel":3.9221,"peRel":1.4616}},"069620":{"name":"Daewoong Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.","subtitle":"Korean Rx leader; Nabota botulinum US/EU/China expansion + Envlo (enavogliflozin SGLT2) global rollout 50-country target + Fexuclue (P-CAB GERD #2 KR +47%) + CN201 antibiotic Daewoong Bio target ₩100B","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":11.6,"netCashLocal":300000,"cashPS":25862.069,"tps":{"mega_bear":98272.49,"bear":134479.21,"base":182754.99,"bull":267237.65,"psychedelic_bull":412065.14},"weightedTP":203875.67,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","gastro_hepatology.liver","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic"],"modalities":["biological_extract.botulinum.toxin_type_a","biological_extract","biological_extract.botulinum","small_molecule.transporter.sglt2","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.transporter.pcab_acid_blocker","_diversified.branded.korea_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","small_molecule.antibacterial.next_gen","small_molecule.antibacterial","small_molecule.enzyme.prs_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":122},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":61},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":13},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":9},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":115},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":43},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":22},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":17},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":8},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":3},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":3,"optionality":30,"totalTAM":129.079,"totalWTD":99.58379},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"envlo","indication":"envlo_t2d","title":"Envlo China Ph3 readout + global filings (Indonesia, Saudi, Philippines)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Daewoong pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":203875.671,"successTP":203875.671,"baseTP":203875.671,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"nabota","indication":"nabota_aest","title":"Nabota US/EU/China continued expansion (Jeuveau ex-Evolus partnership)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Daewoong/Evolus","_confidence":"high","failTP":203875.671,"successTP":203875.671,"baseTP":203875.671,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"bersiporocin","indication":"bersiporocin_ipf","title":"Bersiporocin (DWN12088) global Phase 2 IPF topline (NCT05389215); enrollment complete May'26, IDMC 3x continue; out-licensing/partnership decision on readout (guide now H1 2027; 104 pts enrolled, baselines shown ERS Sep 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026050609003115907","_confidence":"high","failTP":203875.671,"successTP":203875.671,"baseTP":203875.671,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1400,"lenses":{"comparable":354889.77,"eeRel":1.0217},"readouts":[{"a":"bersiporocin","ind":"bersiporocin_ipf","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":69.5210408,"lo":-77.6710441,"hi":264.506599,"pBeatBest":0.1166,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193},{"a":"envlo","ind":"envlo_t2d","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","endpoint":"hba1c_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":1.41235738,"lo":-0.253194106,"hi":2.49965484,"pBeatBest":0.12455,"bestDrug":"tirzepatide 15mg","bestValue":2.07}]},"0867":{"name":"China Medical System Holdings Limited","subtitle":"HK-listed Chinese specialty Rx in-licensing | FY25 CNY 7.86B (+11.4%) | cardio + derm + GI + ophthalmic in-licensed portfolio; strategic transformation toward innovation pipeline","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2500,"netCashLocal":8000,"cashPS":3.2,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.76,"bear":11.2,"base":17.6,"bull":28.4,"psychedelic_bull":50},"weightedTP":19.46,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.china_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.china_specialty","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-20","asset":"cms_branded","indication":"cms_div","title":"CMS FY2026 results (H1'26 turnover +12.5%; Dermavon spin-off flagged)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CMS IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":19.458,"successTP":19.458,"baseTP":19.458,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1100,"lenses":{"comparable":16.23,"peRel":0.8597}},"AAPG":{"name":"Ascentage Pharma Group International","subtitle":"Chinese global commercial-stage: olverembatinib 3G BCR-ABL CML T315I FY25 $62.2M (+81%); lisaftoclax (APG-2575) BCL-2 China launch Jul'25; alrizomadlin MDM2-p53 Ph3; cash $353.2M","currency":"USD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":93.39,"netCashLocal":-13.8,"cashPS":-0.1478,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0.07,"base":5.3,"bull":23.54,"psychedelic_bull":25.84},"weightedTP":9.25,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.cml","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","oncology.leukemia.cll","oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","oncology.tissue_agnostic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.bcl2","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.mdm2_p53"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":109},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":109},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":14}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":140},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":8}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":203,"totalTAM":21.73375,"totalWTD":7.1721375},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"lisaftoclax","indication":"lisa_cll","title":"Lisaftoclax China commercial expansion + global regulatory progress","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/25/3262673/0/en/Ascentage-Pharma-Reports-Full-Year-2025-Unaudited-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Updates.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.22234802,"successTP":10.925123,"baseTP":9.25283636,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":33,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-08","asset":"olverembatinib","indication":"olver_cml","title":"Olverembatinib global Ph3 progress -- POLARIS-2 CML-CP first data expected ASH 2026; POLARIS-1/3 still enrolling, no US NDA (H1 2026 update) -- ROLLED from Sep 30","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/25/3262673/0/en/Ascentage-Pharma-Reports-Full-Year-2025-Unaudited-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Updates.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.3289987,"successTP":19.1579242,"baseTP":9.25283636,"swingPct":91,"successMove":54,"failMove":-37,"yourPoS":33,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":43}],"salesM2025":70,"lenses":{"comparable":11.88}},"ABBOTTINDIA":{"name":"Abbott India Limited","subtitle":"Indian MNC subsidiary | FY25 INR 6,409 cr (+9.6%) net profit INR 1,414 cr (+17.7%) | Brufen + Thyronorm + Pediasure + Cremaffin + Digene | top-15 Indian MNC; consistent compounder","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":21.25,"netCashLocal":30000,"cashPS":1411.7647,"tps":{"mega_bear":16941.18,"bear":24000,"base":33411.76,"bull":49129.41,"psychedelic_bull":75011.76},"weightedTP":35929.41,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.india_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.india_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-12","asset":"abbott_in_branded","indication":"abbott_in_div","title":"Abbott India Q2 FY27 results (Sep 2026 quarter)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Abbott India IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":35929.4118,"successTP":35929.4118,"baseTP":35929.4118,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":770,"lenses":{"comparable":13034.84,"peRel":1.3256}},"ABBV":{"name":"AbbVie","subtitle":"Skyrizi $17.6B + Rinvoq $8.3B > peak Humira | 2026 guide $67B | Vyalev PD $5B+ peak | Sep'26: etentamig CERVINO Ph3 HIT (ORR 74% vs 46%) + Qulipta LUNA menstrual-migraine Ph3 HIT","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1770,"netCashLocal":-74316,"cashPS":-41.9864,"tps":{"mega_bear":88.98,"bear":127.86,"base":203.7,"bull":316.31,"psychedelic_bull":448.01},"weightedTP":226.96,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","cns","cns.movement","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry","oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","dermatology.aesthetics","dermatology.aesthetics.filler","gastro_hepatology.pancreas.epi","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.pancreas","infectious_disease.viral.hcv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","gastro_hepatology.luminal","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns.neurodegeneration","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.jak1","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf","biological_extract.botulinum.toxin_type_a","biological_extract","biological_extract.botulinum","small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_d3_d2","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.kinase.btk_covalent","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.bcl2","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","aesthetic_or_other.filler.hyaluronic","aesthetic_or_other","aesthetic_or_other.filler","biological_extract.porcine.pancreatic_lipase","biological_extract.porcine","small_molecule.antiviral.hcv_ns3_ns5a","small_molecule.antiviral","small_molecule.gpcr.cgrp","peptide.hormone_analog.guanylin.guanylate_cyclase","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.guanylin","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.fralpha","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","formulation_modifier.depot.levodopa_continuous","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.depot","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cd3_cd20","biologic.antibody.bispecific","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_m4_pam","small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_d1_d5","biologic.antibody.bispecific.anti_il1","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.cmet","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tcell_engager","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il13"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":42},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":25},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":22},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":12},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":8},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":5},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":5},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.epi","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":1},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":47},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":28},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":21},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":14},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":12},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":10},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":5},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.epi","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":1},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":80},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":80},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":80},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":41},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":20},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":0},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.epi","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":7,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":13,"totalTAM":300.89375,"totalWTD":267.365369},"catalysts":[{"date":"Nov 2024","dateSort":"2024-11-11","asset":"emraclidine","indication":"emra_schiz","title":"RESOLVED 2024-11-11 (MISS): EMPOWER-1/2 were the Phase 2 trials and missed; no Phase 3 exists. Program re-started in Ph2 (NCT07145918) + Ph1","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":88,"_source":"ABBV pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":226.317412,"successTP":231.190607,"baseTP":226.955511,"swingPct":2,"successMove":2,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-03","asset":"zumilokibart","indication":"zumi_ad","title":"REPORTED: Apogee Therapeutics acquisition CLOSED Sep 3 2026 ($135.11/sh cash, ~$10.9B equity value, no CVR; agreed Jun 22 2026) - zumilokibart (APG777) now in-house","type":"ma_close","fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":82,"failTP":225.12077,"successTP":227.498213,"baseTP":226.955511,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":59,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-03","asset":"abbv_383","indication":"abbv383_mm","title":"REPORTED: Etentamig (ABBV-383) CERVINO Ph3 R/R myeloma TOPLINE HIT (3 Sep 2026) -- ORR 74.0% vs 45.7% standard available therapy, 60% reduction in risk of progression/death (n=393, median 3 prior lines, 11.4-mo f/u); low CRS + fatal infection rates on monthly dosing after one step-up; full data IMS plenary 25 Sep 2026","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"severity":"high","failTP":225.76822,"successTP":227.384813,"baseTP":226.955511,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Sep 10 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-10","asset":"qulipta","indication":"qulipta_migraine","title":"REPORTED: Atogepant (Qulipta) LUNA Ph3 menstrual migraine HIT (10 Sep 2026) -- primary endpoint + all 8 ranked secondary endpoints met; n=468, 7-day perimenstrual dosing x3 cycles; first potential approved therapy in menstrual migraine, submissions planned","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"severity":"medium","failTP":226.955511,"successTP":226.955511,"baseTP":226.955511,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 28 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-28","asset":"tavapadon","indication":"tava_pd","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-28 (HIT): FDA approves JUVMO (tavapadon) for Parkinson disease -- TEMPO Ph3 program read out previously; stale readout catalyst superseded by approval","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"ABBV pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":222.387822,"successTP":228.272872,"baseTP":226.955511,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":64619,"lenses":{"comparable":151.39,"eeRel":0.8036,"peRel":0.3005},"readouts":[{"a":"emraclidine","ind":"emra_schiz","ds":"2024-11-11","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.75093165,"lo":-2.47285809,"hi":13.124654,"pBeatBest":0.0428,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12},{"a":"abbv_383","ind":"abbv383_mm","ds":"2026-09-03","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.0603992,"lo":7.08852491,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.2211,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73}]},"ABCL":{"name":"AbCellera Biologics","subtitle":"AI antibody platform + own pipeline: ABCL635 anti-NK3R menopause VMS Ph2 MET both primaries Aug'26 -> Ph3; ABCL575 anti-OX40L AD Ph1 Q4'26; $200M raise Aug'26; liquidity ~$862M","currency":"USD","country":"CA","region":"AMERICAS.CA","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":326.98,"netCashLocal":862,"cashPS":2.6362,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.69,"bear":3.37,"base":4.69,"bull":6.26,"psychedelic_bull":7.95},"weightedTP":4.55,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","women_health","women_health.menopause"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ox40l","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_nk3r"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":75},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":75},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":75},{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":50},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":25}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":79},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":61},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":61},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":61},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":39}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":163},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":81},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":19}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":190,"totalTAM":18.32,"totalWTD":6.321882},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 10, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"abcl635","indication":"abcl635_vms","title":"REPORTED: ABCL635 Ph2 VMS topline Aug 10 2026 -- MET BOTH CO-PRIMARIES (freq -5.3/day, severity -1.1, both p<0.001; no SAEs); pos/apr moved to declared success 70/78 at base","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://investors.abcellera.com/news/news-releases/2026/AbCellera-Announces-Positive-Top-Line-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-Results-for-ABCL635-Demonstrating-Significant-Reduction-in-Frequency-and-Severity-of-Vasomotor-Symptoms-and-a-Favorable-Tolerability-Profile/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.10311768,"successTP":5.33706365,"baseTP":4.54623474,"swingPct":49,"successMove":17,"failMove":-32,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"abcl575","indication":"abcl575_ad","title":"ABCL575 Ph1 atopic dermatitis topline (OX40L; durability profile)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260511135503/en/AbCellera-Reports-Q1-2026-Business-Results-Announces-Positive-Interim-Phase-1-Clinical-Data-for-ABCL635","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.90152978,"successTP":5.08423278,"baseTP":4.54623474,"swingPct":18,"successMove":8,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"abcl635","indication":"abcl635_vms","title":"ABCL635 Phase 3 VMS program initiation / EoP2 FDA alignment on registrational design + dosing interval","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":84,"failTP":3.57536989,"successTP":5.52822984,"baseTP":4.54623474,"swingPct":22,"successMove":11,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5.56},"readouts":[{"a":"abcl575","ind":"abcl575_ad","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.8041375,"lo":7.48389106,"hi":95.0837539,"pBeatBest":0.1097,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"ABEO":{"name":"Abeona Therapeutics Inc.","subtitle":"ZEVASKYN RDEB launch scaling: Q2'26 rev $11.4M (+31% QoQ), 12 pts treated, 8 QTCs, CMS NTAP from Oct 1'26 | mfg yield still the gate | cash $146.8M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":57.05,"netCashLocal":146.8,"cashPS":2.5732,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.11,"bear":3.33,"base":5.17,"bull":7.89,"psychedelic_bull":11.25},"weightedTP":5.04,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","dermatology","dermatology.genodermatosis","ophthalmology.retina.xlrs","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.adoa","ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.gene_corrected_epidermal","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav_rs1_retinal","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav_abca4_retinal","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav_opa1_optic"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.xlrs","purity":65},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":65},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":65},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.adoa","purity":47},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":24},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":23},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":82},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.xlrs","purity":74},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":41},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":32},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.adoa","purity":12},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":200},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.xlrs","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.adoa","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":35,"rarePurityWtd":47,"optionality":262,"totalTAM":24.485,"totalWTD":6.7725375},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 13, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-13","asset":"zevaskyn","indication":"zevaskyn_rdeb","title":"REPORTED: Abeona Q1 2026 financial results + ZEVASKYN commercial launch ramp update","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ABEO PR May 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Q1 2026 revenue $8.7M driven by ZEVASKYN (3 patients treated, 6 QTCs active incl CHOP); ABO-701 IND filing guidance H2 2027; ophthalmology programs (ABO-503/504/505) deprioritized","_outcomeSource":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/abeona-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-results-and-provides-pipeline-update","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3.55660259,"successTP":6.79743642,"baseTP":5.03911406,"swingPct":32,"successMove":18,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-13","asset":"zevaskyn","indication":"zevaskyn_rdeb","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-13: Q2'26 ZEVASKYN revenue $11.4M (+31% QoQ), H1 $20.1M; 12 treatments since launch; QTC network to 7; CMS NTAP effective Oct 1 2026; 2 patients not revenue-recognized on manufacturing yield","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://investors.abeonatherapeutics.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/352/abeona-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-and-provides-business-update","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Demand and access are compounding (7 QTCs, NTAP from Oct'26, +31% QoQ), but manufacturing yield remains the binding constraint on recognized revenue. Commercial asset -- pos/apr already 100; the live lever is pen, left unchanged pending a clean quarter with no yield write-offs.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":1.01716609,"successTP":2.5225375,"baseTP":5.03911406,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-15,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"zevaskyn","indication":"zevaskyn_rdeb","title":"ZEVASKYN treatment cadence + qualified treatment center expansion; first full-year commercial trajectory","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ABEO FY25 guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.55660259,"successTP":6.79743642,"baseTP":5.03911406,"swingPct":19,"successMove":11,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"abo_503","indication":"abo503_xlrs","title":"ABO-503 XLRS — FDA RDEA pilot endpoint alignment + IND clearance","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"ABEO RDEA pilot announcement","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.03911406,"successTP":5.03911406,"baseTP":5.03911406,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.59}},"ABUS":{"name":"Arbutus Biopharma","subtitle":"Imdusiran (AB-729) GalNAc-siRNA chronic HBV -- FDA-aligned Ph2b design; Fast Track Apr'26; 10 functional cures; AB-101 oral PD-L1 Ph1; $230M tender CLOSED Oct'26 (46M sh @ $5.00)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":153.28,"netCashLocal":24,"cashPS":0.1566,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.12,"bear":1.13,"base":3.16,"bull":7.03,"psychedelic_bull":11.93},"weightedTP":3.2,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hbv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.galnac_hbv","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.pdl1_oral","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":279,"totalTAM":30.9,"totalWTD":8.1576},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-29","asset":"imdusiran","indication":"imd_hbv","title":"RESOLVED 2026-10-01: Modified 'Dutch auction' tender offer -- 46.0M shares repurchased at $5.00 (US$230M), ~153.3M shares outstanding after","type":"other","fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001447028/000110465926112579/tm2626584d2_ex99-a5iv.htm","failTP":1.36840102,"successTP":5.91661057,"baseTP":3.20110862,"swingPct":71,"successMove":43,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":37,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":41},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"imdusiran","indication":"imd_hbv","title":"Imdusiran Ph2 functional cure update (durability + combo data) -- ROLLED from H2 2026: no presentation guided as of Oct 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://investor.arbutusbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/arbutus-receives-us-fda-fast-track-designation-imdusiran","_confidence":"medium","_note":"2026-10-09 freshness: rolled H2 2026 -> H1 2027; no imdusiran data released by Sep 30 and none guided in the Q2'26 PR. Soft slip, no assumption change. 2026-09-15 self-audit: UNVERIFIED -- the Q2'26 PR (Aug 12 2026) lists no upcoming imdusiran presentation; likely a soft slip. Moderna Section 1498 appeal fully briefed, no ruling; $1.3B contingent payment remains binary and uncatalysed. Update cash/sharesOut after the Sep 29 tender result.","failTP":0.527313231,"successTP":6.25649337,"baseTP":3.20110862,"swingPct":179,"successMove":95,"failMove":-84,"yourPoS":57,"expectedReturn":18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":81},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"imdusiran","indication":"imd_hbv","title":"Imdusiran Phase 2b initiation (FDA-aligned design agreed Aug 2026)","type":"phase2_start","fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":70,"failTP":1.24313691,"successTP":6.13961744,"baseTP":3.20110862,"swingPct":46,"successMove":28,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":57,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.83,"eeRel":1.5161,"peRel":4.2}},"ABVX":{"name":"Abivax SA","subtitle":"ABTECT Ph3 UC induction+maintenance POSITIVE; Jun29'26 maint Part 2 + expanded safety DB: malignancy/NMSC rates WITHIN UC background (de-risks Jun2 signal) | NDA Q4'26 | CD mid-2027","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":80,"netCashLocal":458,"cashPS":5.725,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.54,"bear":17.8,"base":40.61,"bull":79.41,"psychedelic_bull":95.8},"weightedTP":45.37,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns"],"modalities":["small_molecule.rna_modulator.mirna_enhancer","small_molecule","small_molecule.rna_modulator"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":111},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":89}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":148},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":52}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":186},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":14}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":88,"totalTAM":37.475,"totalWTD":19.9405625},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-29","asset":"obef_uc","indication":"uc","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-29 (POSITIVE): ABTECT maintenance Part 2 + expanded safety database -- among induction non-responders continued on obefazimod 50mg, 37.2% clinical remission, 34.5% endoscopic remission and 61.5% clinical response at week 44 in a more refractory population than the registrational cohort. Exposure-adjusted malignancy / NMSC rates across all-active Ph2+Ph3 arms remain WITHIN published UC background ranges, de-risking the Jun 2 signal. FDA NDA guided late Q4 2026. No assumption change -- the registrational maintenance data (Jun 1 2026) already carry the pos/apr","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/29/3319283/0/en/","_note":"Reassures Jun 2 malignancy signal ahead of Q4'26 NDA","failTP":6.94222628,"successTP":14.2021514,"baseTP":45.3700467,"swingPct":16,"successMove":-69,"failMove":-85,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-69,"daysOut":null,"materiality":77},{"date":"Late Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"obef_uc","indication":"uc","title":"FDA NDA submission -- obefazimod for moderately-to-severely active UC","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://ir.abivax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/abivax-announces-landmark-phase-3-abtect-maintenance-trial/","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guidance Jun 1 2026: NDA submission planned late Q4 2026 following positive maintenance","failTP":29.2078107,"successTP":61.4709743,"baseTP":45.3700467,"swingPct":14,"successMove":7,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":89,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"Mid-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"obef_cd","indication":"cd","title":"ENHANCE-CD Ph2b 12-week induction topline (Crohn's disease)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://ir.abivax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/abivax-announces-landmark-phase-3-abtect-maintenance-trial/","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guidance Jun 1 2026: ENHANCE-CD topline now expected mid-2027 (deferred from Q4 2026)","failTP":42.2430506,"successTP":48.6879525,"baseTP":45.3700467,"swingPct":14,"successMove":7,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-15","asset":"obef_uc","indication":"uc","title":"FDA PDUFA decision / approval -- obefazimod UC","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://ir.abivax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/abivax-announces-landmark-phase-3-abtect-maintenance-trial/","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Standard NDA review timeline ~10mo post late Q4 2026 submission; Priority Review possible","failTP":25.7504642,"successTP":62.5522458,"baseTP":45.3700467,"swingPct":81,"successMove":38,"failMove":-43,"yourPoS":89,"expectedReturn":29,"daysOut":null,"materiality":77}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":58.3},"readouts":[{"a":"obef_uc","ind":"uc","ds":"2026-06-29","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":11.5028489,"lo":2.39534509,"hi":18.4782209,"pBeatBest":0.27035,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7},{"a":"obef_cd","ind":"cd","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":14.2565619,"lo":-6.43652884,"hi":32.4411391,"pBeatBest":0.2124,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 45mg","bestValue":22}]},"ACAD":{"name":"Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.","subtitle":"Nuplazid (pimavanserin) PDP + Daybue (trofinetide) Rett 1st-in-class (EU CHMP+ Jun26) + remlifanserin/ACP-204 RADIANT ADP Ph2 narrow miss Sep'26 (60mg Ph3s go on) | ACP-101 PWS Ph3 failed Sep25","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":172.3,"netCashLocal":956.5,"cashPS":5.5514,"tps":{"mega_bear":20.01,"bear":29.05,"base":38.48,"bull":57.11,"psychedelic_bull":79.21},"weightedTP":40.04,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","cns.neurodevelopmental","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry","cns.neurodegeneration.dlb","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.serotonin_inverse_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","peptide.hormone_analog.gpe_analog","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.oxytocin_analog"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":55},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":52},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.dlb","purity":51},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":33},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":26},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":26},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":13},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":12},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":7}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":84},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":65},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":35},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":34},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.dlb","purity":27},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":19},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":121},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":67},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":61},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":30},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.dlb","purity":7},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":12,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":153,"totalTAM":46.8015,"totalWTD":18.476945},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2025","dateSort":"2025-09-24","asset":"acp_101","indication":"pws_hyperphagia","title":"REPORTED 2025-09-24: ACP-101 carbetocin COMPASS-PWS Ph3 MISSED primary endpoint (Sept 2025) -- discontinued for PWS","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250924187122/en/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","failTP":40.0272162,"successTP":40.958529,"baseTP":40.0373796,"swingPct":2,"successMove":2,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"daybue","indication":"rett","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-24: Daybue EU -- European Commission APPROVED Daybu (trofinetide) for Rett syndrome ages 5+ (after positive CHMP re-exam Jun 26 2026); country P&R launches to follow","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.acadia.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":40.0373796,"successTP":40.0373796,"baseTP":40.0373796,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 24 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-24","asset":"acp_204","indication":"ad_psychosis","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-24: Remlifanserin RADIANT Ph2 topline MIXED -- 60mg missed primary SAPS-H+D (p=0.0603), hit CGI-S-ADP (p=0.0077); 30mg dropped, Ph3s continue at 60mg","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":58,"success_apr":68,"_source":"Acadia PR 2026-07-20 (FDA Fast Track) + JPM'26 pipeline update: RADIANT Ph2 enrollment complete, topline guided Sep-Oct 2026; https://acadia.com/en-us/media/news-releases","_confidence":"high","_resolution":"Neither pre-declared outcome: primary missed (not the success case) but program continues into Ph3 (not the fail case). Partial move base pos 55->42 / apr 78->70; source https://acadia.com/en-us/media/news-releases/acadia-pharmaceuticals-announces-phase-3-enabling-topline-results-from-phase-2-radiant-study-of-remlifanserin-for-the-treatment-of-alzheimers-disease-psychosis-adp","failTP":39.5712424,"successTP":40.3276102,"baseTP":40.0373796,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"acp_204","indication":"ad_psychosis","title":"Remlifanserin (ACP-204) RADIANT Ph3 confirmatory topline (AD psychosis; first of two near-identical Ph3s)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://ir.acadia.com/news-releases","_note":"Renamed from legacy 'ADVANCE-2' (that was the pimavanserin AD-psychosis program). ACP-204/remlifanserin program is RADIANT (seamless Ph2 + two Ph3). Ph3s enrolling as of mid-2026; exact topline date unconfirmed (~2027-28), confidence lowered.","_confidence":"medium","failTP":39.5609657,"successTP":40.7454641,"baseTP":40.0373796,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":1000,"lenses":{"comparable":26.09,"eeRel":0.4125,"peRel":1.3208},"readouts":[{"a":"acp_204","ind":"ad_psychosis","ds":"2026-09-24","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":11.1368057,"lo":-9.87962185,"hi":39.9360283,"pBeatBest":0.15045,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27},{"a":"acp_204","ind":"ad_psychosis","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":4.98919777,"lo":-8.73559783,"hi":35.7328771,"pBeatBest":0.07955,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27}]},"ACET":{"name":"Adicet Bio, Inc.","subtitle":"Allo gamma-delta CAR-T (post 1:16 rev split) | Prula-cel: FDA ALIGNED on LN pivotal design; 22-pt LN/SLE Ph1 topline Q3'26 | pivotal startup H2'26 | cash $118.2M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":9.6,"netCashLocal":118.2,"cashPS":12.3125,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.74,"bear":6.3,"base":13.72,"bull":24.78,"psychedelic_bull":44.11},"weightedTP":12.54,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology.genitourinary.rcc"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_gamma_delta","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":98},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":54},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":27},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":9}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":116},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":67},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":44},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":22},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":79},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":70},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":61},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":55},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":518,"totalTAM":25.3345,"totalWTD":4.1021942},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 6 2025","dateSort":"2025-10-06","asset":"prula_cel","indication":"prula_sle","title":"REPORTED: Prula-cel (ADI-001) Phase 1 POSITIVE PRELIMINARY data SLE/LN (Aug 31 2025 cut): rapid + sustained SLEDAI-2K + PGA reductions, improved renal function, favorable safety -- KEY platform validation","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":52,"_source":"Adicet IR Oct 6 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Preliminary Ph1 data hit on SLEDAI-2K + PGA + renal function + safety -- de-risks allogeneic gamma-delta CAR-T thesis in autoimmune. Catalyst for Nov FDA alignment + pivotal path.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":9.31107321,"successTP":15.1071172,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":32,"successMove":14,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"Nov 2025","dateSort":"2025-11-15","asset":"prula_cel","indication":"prula_sle","title":"REPORTED: FDA alignment on OUTPATIENT DOSING for prula-cel in ongoing Ph1 + future trials -- removes inpatient logistics burden vs autologous CD19 CAR-T","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":52,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":52,"_source":"Adicet IR Nov 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Outpatient dosing is a major commercial + logistics advantage over autologous CD19 CAR-T (Yescarta/Carvykti). Critical for autoimmune scaling.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":10.4959839,"successTP":15.1071172,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":18,"successMove":10,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":19,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-11","asset":"prula_cel","indication":"prula_sle","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-11: FDA ALIGNMENT ACHIEVED on the prula-cel lupus-nephritis pivotal trial design (disclosed on the Q2'26 call); pivotal startup activities planned 2H 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":58,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ACET/adicet-bio-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-v51wlgaqyzyu.html","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Regulatory de-risking of the registrational path, but not an efficacy readout -- the pivotal-enabling efficacy question is still the Q3 2026 22-patient topline. No PoS move taken on the alignment alone.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":10.4082518,"successTP":15.5186183,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":21,"successMove":12,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":19,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Aug 27 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"adi_212","indication":"adi212_mcrpc","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-27: FDA CLEARED the ADI-212 IND for mCRPC (gene-edited, IL-12-armored anti-PSMA gamma-delta CAR-T); Ph1 enrollment guided 4Q 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":30,"_source":"https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/adicet-bio-announces-fda-clearance-ind-application-adi-212-2026-08-27","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","failTP":12.2285767,"successTP":12.7349725,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-01","asset":"prula_cel","indication":"prula_sle","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-01 (on track): Adicet announced COMPLETION OF LAST PATIENT VISIT for the planned analysis of the prula-cel Ph1 study in SLE with or without lupus nephritis, plus a corporate update -- database now closing toward the Q3'26 confirmatory topline. Process milestone, not a data readout: no pos/apr change","type":"milestone","failTP":9.04278929,"successTP":11.6575796,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":19,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"prula_cel","indication":"prula_sle","title":"Prula-cel Ph1 LN/SLE CONFIRMATORY topline Q3'26 -- 22 patients (all >=6mo f/u, 13 at >=12mo); largest allogeneic off-the-shelf cell-therapy dataset in lupus","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":62,"_source":"Adicet IR FY26 milestones","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.23692133,"successTP":15.8933782,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":37,"successMove":19,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"adi_212","indication":"adi212_mcrpc","title":"ADI-212 Ph1 mCRPC enrollment initiation (pending IND clearance)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":35,"_source":"Adicet IR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.2549418,"successTP":12.779235,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"adi_270","indication":"adi270_rcc","title":"In vivo CAR-T platform comprehensive update (new 2H 2026 guidance from the Q2'26 call)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ACET/adicet-bio-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-v51wlgaqyzyu.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.463651,"successTP":12.531515,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":4,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"prula_cel","indication":"prula_ssc","title":"Prula-cel Ph1 SSc (Fast Track) data update -- ultra-orphan systemic sclerosis follow-up","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":58,"success_apr":65,"_source":"Adicet IR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.46830013,"successTP":15.557147,"baseTP":12.5419827,"swingPct":34,"successMove":17,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":38.5},"readouts":[{"a":"prula_cel","ind":"prula_sle","ds":"2025-10-06","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.1595172,"lo":-15,"hi":56.4431723,"pBeatBest":0.0842,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"prula_cel","ind":"prula_sle","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.499226,"lo":-15,"hi":56.8815158,"pBeatBest":0.085,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"ACHV":{"name":"Achieve Life Sciences, Inc.","subtitle":"Cytisinicline alpha4beta2-nAChR partial agonist: CRL received Jun 2026 (CMC-only, 3rd-party mfr) -> Q4 26 resubmission (Adare) -> H1 27 launch; CNPV for vaping cessation | Cash ~$198M pro-forma","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":175.52,"netCashLocal":428.4,"cashPS":2.4407,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.28,"bear":2.5,"base":2.71,"bull":2.84,"psychedelic_bull":2.89},"weightedTP":2.66,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.substance_use.nicotine","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.substance_use"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.nicotinic_partial_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.nicotine","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.nicotine","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.nicotine","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":100}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":24,"totalTAM":1.632,"totalWTD":1.3212672},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 20 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-20","asset":"cytisinicline","indication":"cyti_smoking","title":"REPORTED: Cytisinicline original PDUFA -- CRL RECEIVED Jun 2026 on 3rd-party CMC (as expected; managed via tech transfer to Adare)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"FDA issued a Complete Response Letter Jun 22 2026 citing ONLY third-party manufacturer CMC (manufacturer received OAI classification + warning letter); NO efficacy or safety deficiencies. Resubmission naming Adare Pharma Solutions (tech transfer complete) planned Q4 2026; launch reiterated H1 2027. This is the expected benign CRL the config already pre-priced (base pos/apr deliberately held at 88/92, not at fail floor), so NO assumption change made -- reconciling, not double-counting. Real binary remains the Q2 2027 resubmission PDUFA. Source: GlobeNewswire PR + 8-K Jun 22 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":2.52631744,"successTP":2.7019377,"baseTP":2.66485726,"swingPct":6,"successMove":1,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"cytisinicline","indication":"cyti_smoking","title":"Cytisinicline NDA resubmission (post-CRL, Class 2 6mo review)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.50272887,"successTP":2.51704599,"baseTP":2.66485726,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-30","asset":"cytisinicline","indication":"cyti_smoking","title":"Cytisinicline resubmission PDUFA -- KEY APPROVAL","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.50567745,"successTP":2.7019377,"baseTP":2.66485726,"swingPct":7,"successMove":1,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cytisinicline","indication":"cyti_smoking","title":"US commercial launch (if approved)","type":"launch","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.50272887,"successTP":2.51704599,"baseTP":2.66485726,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.67}},"ACIU":{"name":"AC Immune SA","subtitle":"Anti-amyloid + anti-alpha-syn vaccines: ACI-24.060 AD/DS Ph1b/2 ABATE (Takeda option; AD4 adjuvant cohort); ACI-7104 PD VacSYn Part 1 met safety/immunogenicity Sep 26","currency":"USD","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":101.77,"netCashLocal":84.4,"cashPS":0.8293,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.29,"bear":0.58,"base":1.31,"bull":2.44,"psychedelic_bull":3.76},"weightedTP":1.11,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease"],"modalities":["vaccine.therapeutic.protein.amyloid_beta","vaccine","vaccine.therapeutic","vaccine.therapeutic.protein","vaccine.therapeutic.protein.alpha_synuclein"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":121},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":79}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":147},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":53}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":171},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":29}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":290,"totalTAM":19.72,"totalWTD":5.054736},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"aci24060","indication":"aci24_ad","title":"REPORTED: ACI-24.060 ABATE 12mo interim Ph1b/2 AD","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":45,"_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Reported 2026-06-30: 12-month interim from first three cohorts (74 prodromal AD pts) showed ACI-24 generally safe and well tolerated with NO ARIA and a clear dose-responsive anti-Abeta antibody signal across all doses. Safety/immunogenicity de-risked (differentiated vs anti-amyloid mAbs), but efficacy/plaque-clearance not yet demonstrated -- company launched a fourth cohort (AD4) adding an adjuvant to boost immunogenicity and plaque removal, signaling stronger responses may be needed. Interim readout net-neutral for value (efficacy still pending); scenario assumptions unchanged.","_source":"https://ir.acimmune.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ac-immune-reports-interim-12-month-data-phase-1b2-abate-trial","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.586750766,"successTP":1.57890633,"baseTP":1.11405864,"swingPct":89,"successMove":42,"failMove":-47,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"Sep 23 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-23","asset":"aci7104","indication":"aci7104_pd","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-23: VacSYn Ph2 Part 1 week-100 -- all primary endpoints (safety, tolerability, immunogenicity) MET; 100% antibody responders (n=34, 25 active), CSF antibody penetration, total a-syn CSF signal; no efficacy endpoint; Part 2 design to FDA early 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Safety/immunogenicity de-risked but no clinical efficacy was tested, so neither the success nor the fail anchor applies; assumptions left unchanged.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/23/3367352/0/en/ac-immune-reports-positive-safety-immunogenicity-at-week-100-in-part-1-of-vacsyn-phase-2-trial-of-aci-7104.html","failTP":0.878957318,"successTP":1.31158511,"baseTP":1.11405864,"swingPct":39,"successMove":18,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"aci24060","indication":"aci24_ds","title":"ACI-24.060 Down syndrome AD cohort interim","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.605832627,"successTP":1.57529155,"baseTP":1.11405864,"swingPct":87,"successMove":41,"failMove":-46,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.36},"readouts":[{"a":"aci24060","ind":"aci24_ad","ds":"2026-06-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":14.5055109,"lo":-9.84970618,"hi":41.1799791,"pBeatBest":0.1832,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27},{"a":"aci24060","ind":"aci24_ds","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":13.8858606,"lo":-10.0196675,"hi":41.1914927,"pBeatBest":0.17555,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27}]},"ACOG":{"name":"Alpha Cognition","subtitle":"ZUNVEYL (benzgalantamine) oral Alzheimer's Rx: Q2'26 net product rev ~$6.0M (+71% q/q), 1,347 prescribers, 1,095 nursing homes | ALPHA-1062 TBI Ph2 (patent 2045) | cash $41.4M, profitable 2027 target","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":21.77,"netCashLocal":41.4,"cashPS":1.9017,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.78,"bear":1.64,"base":3.63,"bull":6.81,"psychedelic_bull":12.55},"weightedTP":3.6,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.injury.traumatic_brain_injury","cns.injury"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.achei_prodrug","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.injury.traumatic_brain_injury","purity":101},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":99},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":51},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":49}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":169},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":84},{"area":"cns.injury.traumatic_brain_injury","purity":31},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":16}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.injury.traumatic_brain_injury","purity":128},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":72},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":64},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":36}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":71,"totalTAM":12.1,"totalWTD":7.096288},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-01","asset":"zunveyl","indication":"zunv_alz","title":"REPORTED: ZUNVEYL RESOLVE Phase 4 study initiation -- FIRST PATIENT ENROLLED Jun 16 2026 (outpatient tolerability/efficacy)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":95,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260616546831/en/Alpha-Cognition-Announces-First-Patient-Enrolled-in-RESOLVE-Phase-4-Study-Evaluating-ZUNVEYL-in-Patients-with-Mild-to-Moderate-Alzheimers-Disease","_sourceUrl":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260616546831/en/","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"RESOLVE Phase 4 first patient enrolled Jun 16 2026 (BW PR); milestone resolved -- ZUNVEYL approved/commercial, pos already 100, no scenario change","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"First patient enrolled Jun 16, 2026 in RESOLVE, a multicenter Phase 4 post-marketing study of ZUNVEYL (benzgalantamine) evaluating tolerability + neuropsychiatric symptom changes in routine outpatient practice for mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's. ZUNVEYL already approved/commercial; pos/apr already 100 -- no scenario change.","failTP":2.34714072,"successTP":5.25526739,"baseTP":3.60438622,"swingPct":24,"successMove":14,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"zunveyl","indication":"zunv_alz","title":"ZUNVEYL launch ramp / FY26 revenue trajectory","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/alpha-cognition-nasdaq-acog-to-report-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provide-business-update-on-thursday-may-14-2026","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.4087156,"successTP":5.25526739,"baseTP":3.60438622,"swingPct":24,"successMove":14,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"alpha1062","indication":"alpha1062_tbi","title":"ALPHA-1062 Ph2 TBI topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ACOG/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.91004351,"successTP":6.72516499,"baseTP":3.60438622,"swingPct":134,"successMove":87,"failMove":-47,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":46}],"salesM2025":6.8,"lenses":{"comparable":3.72}},"ACRS":{"name":"Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Bosakitug TSLP mAb AD Ph2 topline + ATI-052 TSLPxIL4R bispecific AD & asthma Ph1b PoC toplines (3 readouts) + ATI-2138 ITK/JAK3 Ph2 | ~$211M to end-2028 | 147.2M sh after $40.2M ATM","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":147.2,"netCashLocal":210,"cashPS":1.4266,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.84,"bear":1.3,"base":2.49,"bull":4.33,"psychedelic_bull":6.46},"weightedTP":2.81,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.lichen_planus","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tslp","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tslp_il4r","biologic.antibody.bispecific","small_molecule.kinase.itk_jak3","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":69},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":61},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":49},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":49},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":37},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":31},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.lichen_planus","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":79},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":47},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":41},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.lichen_planus","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":89},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":85},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":85},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.lichen_planus","purity":2}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":312,"totalTAM":56.3015,"totalWTD":13.668219},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"bosakitug","indication":"bosa_ad","title":"Bosakitug Ph2 atopic dermatitis topline (n=109) -- KEY VALUE DRIVER","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_confidence":"high","failTP":1.29711904,"successTP":3.80321176,"baseTP":2.81447012,"swingPct":89,"successMove":35,"failMove":-54,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":46},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"ati052","indication":"ati052_ad","title":"ATI-052 Ph1b AD + asthma readouts -- still guided H2 2026, not reported as of Sep 25 (rolled from Sep 30); Ph2b asthma start Q4 2026","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.14519146,"successTP":3.12482782,"baseTP":2.81447012,"swingPct":25,"successMove":8,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ati2138","indication":"ati2138_lp","title":"ATI-2138 Ph2 lichen planus interim","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.79629797,"successTP":2.82138141,"baseTP":2.81447012,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.73},"readouts":[{"a":"ati052","ind":"ati052_ad","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.5237643,"lo":7.70764432,"hi":94.6520882,"pBeatBest":0.1069,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7},{"a":"bosakitug","ind":"bosa_ad","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":50.9327968,"lo":5.0715656,"hi":90.9027296,"pBeatBest":0.08175,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"ADAG":{"name":"Adagene Inc.","subtitle":"SAFEbody/POWERbody masked antibody platform: muzastotug (ADG126) anti-CTLA-4 Ph2 MSS mCRC (29% ORR + pembro, FDA Fast Track), ADG138 HER2xCD3 IND-ready; Incyte collab","currency":"USD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":67.1,"netCashLocal":122.2,"cashPS":1.8212,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.56,"bear":2.06,"base":8.41,"bull":19.87,"psychedelic_bull":43.57},"weightedTP":10.8,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.tumor_activated_ctla4","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tumor_activated_tce","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":23}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":98},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":98},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":98},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":2}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1092,"totalTAM":24.732,"totalWTD":2.0754396},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"muzastotug_incyte","indication":"muza_inca_mss_crc","title":"Muzastotug + INCA33890 (Incyte TGFβR2xPD-1 bispec) clinical collaboration trial initiation -- MSS CRC","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/02/3267231/0/en/Adagene-Announces-Clinical-Collaboration-with-Incyte-INCA33890.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.00861722,"successTP":10.0812344,"baseTP":10.7991337,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":6,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"adg138","indication":"adg138_her2","title":"ADG138 (dual-masked HER2xCD3 POWERbody) Ph1 initiation -- China NMPA IND CLEARED Sep 22 2026; first dosing guided Q4'26","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/23/3224717/0/en/Adagene-Provides-Business-Update-and-2026-Objectives.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.3888913,"successTP":10.729056,"baseTP":10.7991337,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":4,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"1H 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"muzastotug","indication":"muza_mss_crc","title":"Muzastotug (ADG126) Phase 2 randomized dose-optimization readout (10 vs 20 mg/kg + pembro) in MSS mCRC -- ORR primary endpoint (slipped: company guides results 1H 2027, Aug 12 2026 6-K)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://investor.adagene.com/news-releases/news-release-details/adagene-announces-updated-data-phase-1b2-study-muzastotug-adg126","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.22127272,"successTP":30.1597033,"baseTP":10.7991337,"swingPct":249,"successMove":179,"failMove":-70,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":74}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":11.28},"readouts":[{"a":"muzastotug","ind":"muza_mss_crc","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":1.72919145,"lo":0,"hi":16.5714096,"pBeatBest":0.23335,"bestDrug":"trifluridine/tipiracil + bev","bestValue":6.3}]},"ADCT":{"name":"ADC Therapeutics SA","subtitle":"ADC pure-play | Zynlonta r/r DLBCL FY25 $73M (Q1'26 $20M +15%) | LOTIS-5 Ph3 topline Q2'26 | LOTIS-7 glofi combo | FL/MZL Ph2 | PSMA-ADC IND | Q1'26 cash $231M to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":155.41,"netCashLocal":-217.5,"cashPS":-1.3995,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0,"bull":0,"psychedelic_bull":1.18},"weightedTP":0.06,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology.lymphoma.fl","oncology.lymphoma.mzl"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.dna_payload.cd19","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.dna_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":17}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":15}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":156,"totalTAM":6.95015,"totalWTD":2.717841},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-03","asset":"zynlonta","indication":"zynlonta_dlbcl_3l","title":"REPORTED: LOTIS-5 confirmatory Ph3 TOPLINE (Jun 3 2026): Zynlonta+rituximab vs R-GemOx in r/r DLBCL met PFS primary (HR=0.73, p=0.008; mPFS 6.1 vs 4.7mo) + higher ORR/CR; OS no detriment (HR~0.96, control switching); SAFETY concern (Grade 5 13.2% vs 4.6% + withdrawals higher, esp >=75yo); pre-sBLA FDA meeting Aug'26, sBLA filing Q4'26 -- mixed outcome, partial move applied","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"ADCT IR Jun 3 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Primary PFS endpoint MET (HR=0.73, p=0.008). However tempered by safety signal (Grade 5 events + withdrawals worse with combo arm, particularly elderly >=75). Path to sBLA filing intact but label likely carries safety language. Stock impact mixed: efficacy de-risks regulatory but safety creates label/uptake overhang.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":0.00000264555151,"successTP":0.350265521,"baseTP":0.0589688089,"swingPct":594,"successMove":494,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":256,"daysOut":null,"materiality":94},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"zynlonta","indication":"zynlonta_dlbcl_2l_combo","title":"REPORTED (negative): pre-sBLA FDA meeting HELD -- FDA raised \"substantial concerns regarding the benefit-risk or verification of clinical benefit\" in LOTIS-5 given the Grade 5 imbalance against a marginal treatment benefit; ADCT assessing regulatory options, NO sBLA timeline given (Q2 2026 8-K, Aug 10 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"ADCT IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.017591046,"successTP":0.103952218,"baseTP":0.0589688089,"swingPct":73,"successMove":38,"failMove":-35,"yourPoS":39,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"zynlonta","indication":"zynlonta_dlbcl_2l_combo","title":"LOTIS-7 expanded data (Zynlonta + glofitamab combo r/r DLBCL)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"ADCT FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.0158602205,"successTP":0.103704757,"baseTP":0.0589688089,"swingPct":149,"successMove":76,"failMove":-73,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"zynlonta","indication":"zynlonta_dlbcl_2l_combo","title":"sBLA filing for Zynlonta full-approval conversion -- TIMING WITHDRAWN after the Aug 2026 pre-sBLA meeting; company to update regulatory strategy","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"ADCT IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.0181314395,"successTP":0.113735632,"baseTP":0.0589688089,"swingPct":81,"successMove":47,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":39,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"zynlonta_indolent","indication":"zynlonta_fl","title":"Zynlonta r/r FL + MZL Phase 2 publication-ready data -- PARTLY SLIPPED: MZL data to ASH Dec 2026; FL update now Q2 2027 (Q2 PR Aug 13 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"ADCT FY25 PR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.0301057516,"successTP":0.0848549653,"baseTP":0.0589688089,"swingPct":93,"successMove":44,"failMove":-49,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19}],"salesM2025":73,"lenses":{"comparable":0.18},"readouts":[{"a":"zynlonta","ind":"zynlonta_dlbcl_3l","ds":"2026-06-03","area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":41.6190637,"lo":8.99501275,"hi":78.8640339,"pBeatBest":0.1689,"bestDrug":"epcoritamab","bestValue":63}]},"ADMA":{"name":"ADMA Biologics, Inc.","subtitle":"ASCENIV (RSV-hyperimmune IVIG) PIDD; Q1'26 ASCENIV $97.5M (+28%) but total rev FLAT YoY | FY26 guide $530-560M, Adj EBITDA $265-300M; profitable, cash $138M, net leverage <0.5x | OVERHANG: Mar'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":232.3,"netCashLocal":138,"cashPS":0.5941,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.78,"bear":8.03,"base":14.57,"bull":21.24,"psychedelic_bull":29.13},"weightedTP":15.54,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency"],"modalities":["biologic.plasma_derived.ivig.hyperimmune","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.ivig","biologic.plasma_derived.ivig.standard"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":16.8584,"totalWTD":16.8584},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"asceniv","indication":"asc_pidd","title":"FY26 $530-560M guide vs Culper channel-stuffing overhang + class-action (Aug'26 lead-plaintiff deadline); LT guidance withdrawn","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ADMA Q1'26 PR (May 2026); Culper Research report Mar 24 2026; securities class action filed Jun 11 2026 (D.N.J.)","_confidence":"high","failTP":15.5427314,"successTP":15.5427314,"baseTP":15.5427314,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":510,"lenses":{"comparable":10.67,"eeRel":0.069,"peRel":1.6235}},"AGIO":{"name":"Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"PYRUKYND/AQVESME (mitapivat) PKR activator: PKD + thalassemia commercial; SCD PDUFA Nov 1 2026 (Priority Review) | FY25 $54M | Tebapivat DISCONTINUED (MDS May'26, SCD Jul'26)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":59.49,"netCashLocal":964.8,"cashPS":16.2179,"tps":{"mega_bear":16.18,"bear":17.97,"base":21.34,"bull":26.19,"psychedelic_bull":32.94},"weightedTP":22.37,"meta":{"areas":["hematology.hemolytic.pk_deficiency","hematology","hematology.hemolytic","hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","hematology.hemoglobinopathy","hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","oncology.myeloid.mds","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","oncology.myeloid.mpn","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology.immune_cytopenias"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.pkr_activator","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.galnac","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","small_molecule.kinase.syk","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":48},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":38},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":28},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":14},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pk_deficiency","purity":10},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":95},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":69},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":43},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pk_deficiency","purity":32},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":17},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":16},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":89},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":65},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pk_deficiency","purity":55},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":41},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":28},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":72,"rarePurityWtd":85,"optionality":223,"totalTAM":36.8935,"totalWTD":11.4150287},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-05-12","dateSort":"2026-05-12","asset":"mitapivat","indication":"mit_scd","title":"RESOLVED (success): Mitapivat SCD sNDA filing (RISE UP Hb endpoint hit) -- filed May 12 2026 for accelerated approval","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"AGIO Q1'26","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"sNDA successfully filed with FDA for mitapivat SCD accelerated approval based on RISE UP data","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/12/3293011/31990/en/Agios-Submits-sNDA-to-FDA-for-U-S-Accelerated-Approval-of-Mitapivat-in-Sickle-Cell-Disease.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":22.3692421,"successTP":22.3692421,"baseTP":22.3692421,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-05-29","dateSort":"2026-05-29","asset":"tebapivat","indication":"teba_mds","title":"RESOLVED (fail): Tebapivat LR-MDS Ph2b topline -- missed advancement threshold, discontinued May 2026. With the SCD Ph2 miss (Jul 21 2026) the tebapivat asset is terminated outright; residual PoS zeroed Jul 31 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"AGIO pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Phase 2b trial failed to meet predefined advancement threshold; Agios will not advance tebapivat in LR-MDS","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/29/3303496/31990/en/Agios-Provides-Update-on-Phase-2b-Trial-of-Tebapivat-in-Lower-Risk-Myelodysplastic-Syndromes.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":22.3648064,"successTP":30.7213097,"baseTP":22.3692421,"swingPct":37,"successMove":37,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-21","asset":"tebapivat","indication":"teba_scd","title":"REPORTED (fail): Tebapivat SCD Phase 2 topline (Jul 21 2026) -- Hb response 43.8%/47.1%/29.4% (2.5/5.0/7.5 mg) vs 33.3% placebo, n=59, no meaningful differentiation; Agios DISCONTINUED tebapivat development in SCD and is not advancing the asset.","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":95,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/agios-provides-update-on-phase-2b-trial-of-tebapivat-in-lower-risk-myelodysplastic-syndromes","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Topline data from tebapivat SCD Phase 2 trial anticipated second half 2026","_outcome":"fail","_resolvedDate":"2026-07-31","_outcomeSource":"freshness review 2026-07-31 (title already marked resolved; _outcome backfilled)","failTP":22.3644476,"successTP":32.1171939,"baseTP":22.3692421,"swingPct":44,"successMove":44,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-01","asset":"mitapivat","indication":"mit_scd","title":"Mitapivat SCD PDUFA -- Nov 1 2026 (accelerated approval pathway; Priority Review granted Jul 7 2026, sNDA accepted on RISE UP Ph2/Ph3)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"FDA","_confidence":"medium","failTP":22.3692421,"successTP":22.3692421,"baseTP":22.3692421,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":54,"lenses":{"comparable":36.39}},"AGMB":{"name":"Agomab Therapeutics NV","subtitle":"Fibrosis specialist: ontunisertib (AGMB-129) ALK5 Ph2a HIT FSCD -> Ph2b H2 26; AGMB-447 inhaled ALK5 IPF Ph1 positive Sep 26 -> Ph2 INSPIRIA; AGMB-101 MET agonist | Belgium, NASDAQ Feb 26","currency":"USD","country":"BE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":49.25,"netCashLocal":283.1,"cashPS":5.7482,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.31,"bear":10.44,"base":24.87,"bull":46.14,"psychedelic_bull":70.9},"weightedTP":28.47,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","_platform.met_agonist_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.alk5_tgfbr1","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.met_agonist","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":134},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":67},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":66},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":33},{"area":"_platform.met_agonist_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":164},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":82},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":36},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":18},{"area":"_platform.met_agonist_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":170},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":85},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":30},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":15},{"area":"_platform.met_agonist_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":295,"totalTAM":31.18,"totalWTD":7.8881875},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-14","asset":"agmb447","indication":"agmb447_ipf","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-14: AGMB-447 IPF Ph1 Part C PD/biomarker readout POSITIVE -- favourable safety at 4.5 mg BID, lung-restricted PK, >50% pSMAD3 reduction in BAL cells (pulled forward from 2027 guide)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3361543/0/en/agomab-announces-positive-phase-1-results-for-agmb-447-in-patients-with-idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-and-design-of-phase-2-inspiria-study.html","_outcome":"success","failTP":23.6012454,"successTP":31.6047862,"baseTP":28.4680239,"swingPct":20,"successMove":8,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"ontu","indication":"ontu_fscd","title":"Ontunisertib Ph2b NOV-ERA first dosing in symptomatic FSCD (FDA-aligned design announced Jun 23 2026; up to 320 pts; Wk24 endoscopic passability primary)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":6.04072945,"successTP":9.54493949,"baseTP":28.4680239,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-20,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-22,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"ontu","indication":"ontu_fscd","title":"Ontunisertib STENOVA 48-wk OLE readout (FSCD)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_confidence":"high","failTP":6.80310166,"successTP":45.0518663,"baseTP":28.4680239,"swingPct":134,"successMove":58,"failMove":-76,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":73},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"agmb447","indication":"agmb447_ipf","title":"AGMB-447 Phase 2 INSPIRIA first patient dosed (~120 IPF pts, 2:1 vs placebo, 4 mg BID inhaled, 24-wk FVC primary; CTA submitted Sep 2026)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3361543/0/en/agomab-announces-positive-phase-1-results-for-agmb-447-in-patients-with-idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-and-design-of-phase-2-inspiria-study.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.3273124,"successTP":26.5099158,"baseTP":28.4680239,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":39.29},"readouts":[{"a":"agmb447","ind":"agmb447_ipf","ds":"2026-09-14","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":100.631257,"lo":-92.0888559,"hi":292.994683,"pBeatBest":0.17595,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193},{"a":"ontu","ind":"ontu_fscd","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.3573741,"lo":-4.38473756,"hi":32.6531202,"pBeatBest":0.23005,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 45mg","bestValue":22}]},"AJANTAPHARM":{"name":"Ajanta Pharma Limited","subtitle":"Indian branded + emerging markets | FY25 INR 45.3B revenue (+12%) | India branded CV/ophthalmic/derm + Africa + SE Asia branded portfolio + US ANDAs | profitable specialty mix","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":12,"netCashLocal":15000,"cashPS":1250,"tps":{"mega_bear":2200,"bear":3000,"base":4579.17,"bull":7208.33,"psychedelic_bull":13716.67},"weightedTP":5127.08,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.india_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.india_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 FY27","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"ajanta_branded_emerging","indication":"ajanta_div","title":"Ajanta Pharma Q2 FY27 results (Sep 2026 quarter)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ajanta IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":5127.08333,"successTP":5127.08333,"baseTP":5127.08333,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":540,"lenses":{"comparable":15223.08,"peRel":1.0508}},"AKBA":{"name":"Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"VAFSEO (vadadustat) HIF-PHI oral anemia of dialysis CKD: VOICE Ph4 vs ESA PRIMARY HIT Aug5'26 (win odds 1.16, p=0.0016, n=2116); Q2'26 rev $21.3M, 10,500+ pts | Auryxia generic decline | cash $163M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":267.9,"netCashLocal":162.6,"cashPS":0.6069,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.59,"bear":1.16,"base":2.33,"bull":3.12,"psychedelic_bull":4.08},"weightedTP":2.02,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.ckd.anemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","nephrology.glomerular"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.hif_phi_vadadustat","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.binder_chelator.ferric_citrate_phosphate","small_molecule.binder_chelator","small_molecule.enzyme.sgc_praliciguat"],"focus":[{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":134},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":88},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":42},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":24},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":12}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":146},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":96},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":46},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":8},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":108},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":97},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":85},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":9,"totalTAM":19.2555,"totalWTD":17.630205},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 5, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"vafseo","indication":"vafseo_dial","title":"REPORTED: VOICE Ph4 VAFSEO vs ESA head-to-head interim analysis Aug 5 2026 -- PRIMARY ENDPOINT HIT. 2,116 dialysis pts; statistically significant improved safety outcomes vs ESA (win odds 1.16, 95% CI 1.06-1.28, p=0.0016). Read out ~7 months ahead of the modelled Q1'27 date","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"VAFSEO is already commercial so pos/apr are pinned at 100/100 and the pre-declared success_pos/success_apr (90/95) do not apply. The de-risking flows through pen (peak-revenue multiplier) instead, for which no value was pre-declared -- so a BOUNDED ~15% relative pen uplift was applied (base 0.50 -> 0.58) rather than a full re-rate. A larger peak-sales/SOM re-rate is flagged for manual review.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/05/3339688/37519/en/akebia-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-highlights.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":0.875331743,"successTP":2.64642666,"baseTP":2.02076896,"swingPct":88,"successMove":31,"failMove":-57,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":31,"daysOut":null,"materiality":52},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"prali","indication":"prali_fsgs","title":"Praliciguat Ph2 FSGS data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.88707113,"successTP":2.07594838,"baseTP":2.02076896,"swingPct":10,"successMove":3,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"vafseo","indication":"vafseo_dial","title":"VOCAL Ph4 VAFSEO TIW (three-times-weekly) dosing data","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.852132673,"successTP":2.64642666,"baseTP":2.02076896,"swingPct":89,"successMove":31,"failMove":-58,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":31,"daysOut":null,"materiality":52}],"salesM2025":200,"lenses":{"comparable":6}},"AKESO":{"name":"Akeso, Inc.","subtitle":"China IO bispecific leader | Ivonescimab: HARMONi-2 OS WIN vs pembro MONO Sep'26 (1st PD-1xVEGF to beat pembro on OS) + HARMONi-6 OS HR 0.66 + BTC OS win | Summit ex-China PDUFA Nov 14'26","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":897,"netCashLocal":11700,"cashPS":13.0435,"tps":{"mega_bear":33.55,"bear":58.41,"base":116.28,"bull":224.07,"psychedelic_bull":531.86},"weightedTP":162.67,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.gynecologic.cervical","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck","oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_ctla4","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_vegf","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_lag3","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd47","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":70},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":10,"rarePurityWtd":5,"optionality":17,"totalTAM":96.4646,"totalWTD":82.4680958},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 7, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-07","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"nsclc_pdl1","title":"REPORTED: HARMONi-6 (1L sq-NSCLC, ivonescimab+chemo vs PD-1+chemo) ASCO 2026 PLENARY HIT -- OS HR 0.66 statistically significant + PFS benefit (n=532); first China-originated oncology asset in an ASCO plenary. HARMONi-3 non-sq cohort readout deferred to 1H 2027","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Akeso/Summit pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Ivonescimab's HARMONi-6 first-line NSCLC data will receive plenary presentation and intense scrutiny at ASCO 2026, signaling high visibility and potential pivotal readout.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":162.671148,"successTP":162.671148,"baseTP":162.671148,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"nsclc_pdl1","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-24: HARMONi-GI1 (AK112-309) Ph3 MEETS primary OS endpoint at pre-specified IDMC interim -- ivonescimab+chemo vs durvalumab+chemo, 1L advanced biliary tract cancer (China single-region). First Ph3 ivonescimab win beyond NSCLC and first Ph3 in BTC to beat PD-(L)1+chemo on OS","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/ivonescimab-plus-chemotherapy-demonstrates-significant-overall-survival-benefit-versus-durvalumab-plus-chemotherapy-in-first-line-biliary-tract-cancer-harmoni-gi1-meets-primary-endpoint","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"SURPRISE (no pre-declared catalyst): Akeso/Summit PR, Ph3 interim assessed by IDMC. Ivonescimab has NO biliary-tract indication in this config, so there is nothing to move -- the assumptions carried here are the commercial China NSCLC legs (inert under SOTP commercial classification). Recorded as narrative + events only. FLAGGED for manual review: add an ivonescimab BTC indication (area oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma) with its own market block, which is a structural SOM/TAM addition.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":162.671148,"successTP":162.671148,"baseTP":162.671148,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-02","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"nsclc_pdl1","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-02: HARMONi-2 (AK112-303) MEETS OS key secondary vs pembrolizumab MONOtherapy at pre-specified IDMC interim in 1L PD-L1+ advanced NSCLC (China) -- first PD-1xVEGF bispecific with OS superiority over pembro mono; HR/median OS at an upcoming congress","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"failTP":162.671148,"successTP":162.671148,"baseTP":162.671148,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-14","asset":"summit_royalty","indication":"ivone_ex_china","title":"Summit ivonescimab HARMONi US PDUFA (EGFRm NSCLC post-TKI + chemo; BLA accepted Jan 29 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Summit Jan 29 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":162.376128,"successTP":162.92852,"baseTP":162.671148,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"summit_royalty","indication":"ivone_ex_china","title":"HARMONi-3 global 1L NSCLC (non-squamous cohort) Ph3 PFS readout -- enrollment completed Q2 2026; key ex-China value driver","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"failTP":162.305517,"successTP":162.92852,"baseTP":162.671148,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":410,"lenses":{"comparable":44.84},"readouts":[{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"nsclc_pdl1","ds":"2026-06-07","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"own","med":11.0628701,"lo":7.41124531,"hi":13.2992186,"pBeatBest":0.74115,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"summit_royalty","ind":"ivone_ex_china","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":8.63059096,"lo":3.77448986,"hi":13.1378896,"pBeatBest":0.23685,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"nsclc_pdl1","ds":"2026-08-24","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"own","med":11.0562612,"lo":7.13553031,"hi":13.2581833,"pBeatBest":0.74065,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"nsclc_pdl1","ds":"2026-09-02","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"own","med":11.0475011,"lo":7.37352421,"hi":13.2854069,"pBeatBest":0.7416,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"AKTS":{"name":"Aktis Oncology","subtitle":"Ac-225 radioligand platform: AKY-1189 Nectin-4 Ph1b mUC prelim data Q1'27; AKY-2519 B7-H3 Ph1b mCRPC prelim data 2027; Lilly $1.2B collab; IPO Jan'26 $365M; cash $538.5M to 2029; MCap $1.12B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":55.62,"netCashLocal":517.3,"cashPS":9.3006,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.38,"bear":8.68,"base":9.59,"bull":11.51,"psychedelic_bull":13.51},"weightedTP":9.75,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary.prostate"],"modalities":["radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter.actinium225","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":47}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":45}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":36}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":711,"totalTAM":10.0924,"totalWTD":1.24376125},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-15","asset":"aky1189","indication":"aky1189_muc","title":"AKY-1189 Ph1b mUC preliminary data (Nectin-4 Ac-225)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/aktis-biotech-ipo-radiopharmaceutical-cancer/809066/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.14879428,"successTP":11.1628685,"baseTP":9.75178855,"swingPct":14,"successMove":10,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":10.4},"readouts":[{"a":"aky1189","ind":"aky1189_muc","ds":"2027-02-15","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","endpoint":"mos_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":22.4120706,"lo":7.55147675,"hi":37.2867552,"pBeatBest":0.1195,"bestDrug":"enfortumab vedotin + pembrolizumab","bestValue":31.5}]},"AKTX":{"name":"Akari Therapeutics, Plc","subtitle":"ADC platform (PH1 splicing payload): AKTX-101 Trop2 ADC IND-enabling, FIH goal mid-'27; AKTX-102 CEACAM5; Whitehawk payload deal Aug'26; nomacopan deprioritized; ~$12M cash est., going concern","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":2.285,"netCashLocal":12,"cashPS":5.2516,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.84,"bear":5.13,"base":5.57,"bull":6.95,"psychedelic_bull":8.29},"weightedTP":5.55,"meta":{"areas":["_platform.adc_discovery","_platform","ophthalmology.retina.ga","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.splicing_payload.trop2_ph1","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.splicing_payload","biologic.adc.splicing_payload.ceacam5_ph1","biologic.recombinant_protein.complement.c5_ltb4_bispecific","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.complement"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1752,"totalTAM":11.16,"totalWTD":0.60264},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"aktx101","indication":"aktx101_adc","title":"AKTX-101 IND clearance / first-in-human Ph1 initiation (Trop2 ADC) -- company goal MID-2027 (re-guided from late 2026)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":40,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/13/3344959/0/en/akari-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-highlights-progress-of-aktx-101-towards-phase-1-and-strategic-collaboration-for-its-adc-payload-platform.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.5512739,"successTP":5.5512739,"baseTP":5.5512739,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":9,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"aktx101","indication":"aktx101_adc","title":"AKTX-101 first-in-human Ph1 initial safety/PK data (following a mid-2027 FIH start)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AKTX/akari-therapeutics-reports-breakthrough-preclinical-data-7xai75h1i4kp.html","_confidence":"low","failTP":5.5512739,"successTP":5.5512739,"baseTP":5.5512739,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5.4}},"ALK":{"name":"ALK-Abelló A/S","subtitle":"Global SLIT-tablet allergy immunotherapy leader (Acarizax HDM + Itulazax tree + Grazax grass + Ragwitek + Odactra) + Jext epi-injector","currency":"DKK","country":"DK","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":222,"netCashLocal":500,"cashPS":2.2523,"tps":{"mega_bear":99.58,"bear":137.06,"base":174.96,"bull":236.96,"psychedelic_bull":298.75},"weightedTP":187.19,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","respiratory","respiratory.upper_airway","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory.inflammatory","immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","immunology","immunology.hypersensitivity"],"modalities":["biological_extract.allergen.hdm_slit_tablet","biological_extract","biological_extract.allergen","biological_extract.allergen.tree_slit_tablet","biological_extract.allergen.grass_slit_tablet","biological_extract.allergen.ragweed_slit_tablet","small_molecule.gpcr.beta_agonist_epinephrine","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","biological_extract.allergen.scit_diversified","biological_extract.allergen.scit_pediatric","small_molecule.gpcr.beta_agonist"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":112},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":78},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":56},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":39},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":117},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":76},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":58},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":38},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":162},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":81},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":38},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":4,"totalTAM":61.806,"totalWTD":59.19745},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"odactra","indication":"odactra_us","title":"Odactra US accelerated launch + Acarizax Canada launch","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ALK FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":187.194353,"successTP":187.194353,"baseTP":187.194353,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":6312,"lenses":{"comparable":156.56,"eeRel":1.0744,"peRel":0.8851}},"ALKEM":{"name":"Alkem Laboratories Limited","subtitle":"Top-5 Indian pharma (4.1% domestic share) | FY25 INR 134.6B (+3.7%) net profit INR 22.2B (+22%) | Anti-infective, GI, gyne, pain franchise | US generics ~30% mix | INR 46B cash","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":119.58,"netCashLocal":46200,"cashPS":386.3522,"tps":{"mega_bear":3522.33,"bear":4902.16,"base":7055.53,"bull":9752.47,"psychedelic_bull":18784.08},"weightedTP":7681.68,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.india_branded","_established_products","_established_products.us_generics"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.india_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.generics.mixed","_diversified.generics"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 FY27","dateSort":"2026-11-12","asset":"alkem_india_branded","indication":"alkem_in_div","title":"Alkem Q2 FY27 results (Sep 2026 quarter)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Alkem IR calendar","_confidence":"high","failTP":7681.67754,"successTP":7681.67754,"baseTP":7681.67754,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1550,"lenses":{"comparable":4630.69,"peRel":1.1416}},"ALKS":{"name":"Alkermes plc","subtitle":"CNS specialty (LAI psychiatry + addiction + sleep) | FY25 ~$1.5B: Vivitrol/Aristada/Lybalvi + Vumerity royalty | Alixorexton (ALKS-2680) orexin-2 agonist in Ph3 BRILLIANCE NT1/NT2 -- KEY value driver","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":166,"netCashLocal":-980,"cashPS":-5.9036,"tps":{"mega_bear":18.02,"bear":32.28,"base":53.13,"bull":84.9,"psychedelic_bull":137.76},"weightedTP":57.21,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.substance_use","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.sleep.narcolepsy","cns.sleep","_royalty.alks_biogen","_royalty","_royalty.alks_jnj"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_antagonist_depot","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.atypical_antipsychotic_depot","small_molecule.gpcr.atypical_combo","small_molecule.gpcr.gabab_agonist","small_molecule.transcription_factor.nrf2_dmf","small_molecule.transcription_factor","small_molecule.gpcr.orexin_2_agonist"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":87},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":70},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":65},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":35},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":33},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":5},{"area":"_royalty.alks_biogen","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.alks_jnj","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":92},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":70},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":61},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":35},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":30},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":6},{"area":"_royalty.alks_biogen","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.alks_jnj","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":96},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":56},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":52},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":48},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":20},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":20},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":8},{"area":"_royalty.alks_biogen","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.alks_jnj","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":35,"rarePurityWtd":30,"optionality":7,"totalTAM":56.585104,"totalWTD":53.04256},"catalysts":[{"date":"2H 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"alixorexton","indication":"nt1_alix","title":"BRILLIANCE Phase 3 NT1 topline (Studies 302 + 304, oral OX2R agonist) -- lead value driver; Ph2 VIBRANCE-1 already hit primary (dose-dependent MWT), so Ph3 largely confirmatory/dose-selection","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Alkermes BRILLIANCE initiation PR (Apr 1 2026) + ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07540897 (Study 304 primary completion Jun 2027)","_sourceUrl":"https://investor.alkermes.com/news-releases/news-release-details/alkermes-announces-initiation-phase-3-brilliance-studies","_confidence":"medium","failTP":42.8830201,"successTP":64.180383,"baseTP":57.2067295,"swingPct":37,"successMove":12,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"2H 2027 / early 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"alixorexton","indication":"nt2_alix","title":"BRILLIANCE Phase 3 NT2 topline (Study 303) -- VIBRANCE-2 Ph2 hit primary in NT2; harder endpoint population than NT1","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Alkermes BRILLIANCE initiation PR (Apr 1 2026)","_sourceUrl":"https://investor.alkermes.com/news-releases/news-release-details/alkermes-announces-initiation-phase-3-brilliance-studies","_confidence":"medium","failTP":51.3766407,"successTP":60.2446045,"baseTP":57.2067295,"swingPct":15,"successMove":5,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"2027-2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"lumryz","indication":"narcolepsy_lumryz","title":"Lumryz IH (idiopathic hypersomnia) approval (CVR $1.50/sh trigger)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Avadel deal CVR mechanics","_confidence":"medium","failTP":57.2067295,"successTP":57.2067295,"baseTP":57.2067295,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1701,"lenses":{"comparable":51.21,"eeRel":0.5566,"peRel":0.1388},"readouts":[{"a":"alixorexton","ind":"nt1_alix","ds":"2027-12-15","area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","endpoint":"mwt_latency_change_min","unit":"min","src":"class","med":9.86275534,"lo":-5,"hi":31.3557553,"pBeatBest":0.06955,"bestDrug":"oveporexton (TAK-861)","bestValue":26},{"a":"alixorexton","ind":"nt2_alix","ds":"2028-03-31","area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","endpoint":"mwt_latency_change_min","unit":"min","src":"class","med":8.24728283,"lo":-5,"hi":30.6426704,"pBeatBest":0.0602,"bestDrug":"oveporexton (TAK-861)","bestValue":26}]},"ALLO":{"name":"Allogene Therapeutics","subtitle":"Off-the-shelf allogeneic CAR-T — ALPHA3 futility CLEARED (58% vs 16% MRD); RMAT + Fast Track; ~100 sites by YE26; cash $423.6M into 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":345.5,"netCashLocal":423.6,"cashPS":1.226,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.83,"bear":0.87,"base":1.04,"bull":1.2,"psychedelic_bull":1.52},"weightedTP":1.1,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_cd19","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_cd19_cd70","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_cd70"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":143},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":112},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":93},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":53},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":16,"rarePurityWtd":39,"optionality":250,"totalTAM":17.265,"totalWTD":4.929723},"catalysts":[{"title":"ALLO-329 RESOLUTION autoimmune PoC -- clinical + translational update (company reaffirmed Q4 2026 in the Q2'26 report; slipped from June'26)","date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"allo329","indication":"sle_basket","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":75,"_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Company guidance (Jan 2026 outlook) placed initial ALLO-329 RESOLUTION data from the first dose-level (20M CAR T) cohort in June 2026, with an additional clinical update later in 2026; no confirmed initial-data press release located as of 2026-07-06. Rolled ~1 quarter pending readout.","_source":"https://ir.allogene.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allogene-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial","failTP":1.00797854,"successTP":1.15458505,"baseTP":1.09959857,"swingPct":9,"successMove":4,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"title":"ALPHA3 interim event-free survival (EFS) analysis -- next program update (company guidance mid-2027; was a Dec'26 full PFS/OS readout)","date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cema_cel","indication":"lbcl_1l","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://ir.allogene.com/news-releases/news-release-details/allogene-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial","failTP":0.997262218,"successTP":1.12704385,"baseTP":1.09959857,"swingPct":11,"successMove":2,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.51},"readouts":[{"a":"allo329","ind":"sle_basket","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.2600435,"lo":-15,"hi":55.6231528,"pBeatBest":0.07975,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"ALLR":{"name":"Allarity Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Clinical-stage oncology: stenoparib (PARP+WNT) Ph2 platinum-resistant ovarian (Fast Track) + Ph2 SCLC + CRC preclinical (AACR'26); DRP companion Dx. Sub-cash micro-cap.","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":17.3,"netCashLocal":30,"cashPS":1.7341,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0.23,"bull":1.29,"psychedelic_bull":3.72},"weightedTP":0.33,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.lung","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.parp1_2","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","_diversified.mixed.dx","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":65},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":65},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":65},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":13},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":7},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":6},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":13,"rarePurityWtd":51,"optionality":2708,"totalTAM":14.69764,"totalWTD":0.523422176},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"stenoparib","indication":"steno_ovarian","title":"Stenoparib Ph2 ovarian late-summer cohort completion + Ph3-ready manufacturing","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/15/3296144/0/en/Allarity-Therapeutics-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.0206964964,"successTP":1.03124699,"baseTP":0.334278252,"swingPct":302,"successMove":208,"failMove":-94,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":62},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"stenoparib","indication":"steno_sclc","title":"Stenoparib + TMZ Ph2 SCLC interim data (VA-funded)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://investingnews.com/allarity-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-results-and-continued-stenoparib-development-in-multiple-cancers/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.113917081,"successTP":0.699145054,"baseTP":0.334278252,"swingPct":175,"successMove":109,"failMove":-66,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":-34,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"stenoparib","indication":"steno_ovarian","title":"Stenoparib Ph2 ovarian cohort update (Fast Track)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ALLR/allarity-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-results-and-7ov25e358fh9.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.0421704826,"successTP":0.952999268,"baseTP":0.334278252,"swingPct":272,"successMove":185,"failMove":-87,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":62},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"stenoparib","indication":"steno_ovarian","title":"Stenoparib Ph3 pivotal trial initiation (post-Ph2 cohort data)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/05/3287619/0/en/Allarity-Therapeutics-Advances-Stenoparib-Toward-Pivotal-Development-with-Phase-3-Manufacturing-Campaign.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.0499376691,"successTP":1.04761561,"baseTP":0.334278252,"swingPct":89,"successMove":64,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.33},"readouts":[{"a":"stenoparib","ind":"steno_ovarian","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":13.2178719,"lo":0,"hi":41.8971996,"pBeatBest":0.1671,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3},{"a":"stenoparib","ind":"steno_ovarian","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":13.0750184,"lo":0,"hi":42.1831011,"pBeatBest":0.16285,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3}]},"ALMIRALL":{"name":"Almirall, S.A.","subtitle":"Spanish dermatology specialty | FY25 EUR 1,108M (+12.4%): Ilumetri (IL-23 psoriasis) EUR 234M + Ebglyss (IL-13 AD) EUR 111M (+200%) + Klisyri/Wynzora/Skilarence | EBITDA EUR 233M","currency":"EUR","country":"ES","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":214.8,"netCashLocal":1138,"cashPS":5.298,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.57,"bear":9.99,"base":20.78,"bull":28.61,"psychedelic_bull":37.44},"weightedTP":20.19,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.topical","_established_products.almirall_legacy","_established_products","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il13","_diversified.branded.topical_derm","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.legacy","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il1rap","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il2_mutein","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":48},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":44},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":39},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":39},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":25},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.topical","purity":4},{"area":"_established_products.almirall_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":60},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":31},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":31},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.topical","purity":5},{"area":"_established_products.almirall_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":70},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":50},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.topical","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":7},{"area":"_established_products.almirall_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":25,"totalTAM":69.920052,"totalWTD":56.1528418},"catalysts":[{"date":"late 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"alm_il1rap","indication":"hs_il1rap","title":"IL-1RAP HS Ph2 PoC + IL-2muFc alopecia/AD Ph2 + IL-13/OX-40L Ph1 init -- first PoC readouts guided \"towards end of 2026\" (H1 2026 results Jul 23 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Per JPM Jan 2026, anti-IL-1RAP HS Ph2 started in 2025 and Almirall plans in 2026 to INITIATE 3 additional PoC studies (anti-IL-21 in HS, plus additional indications for IL-1RAP and IL-2muFc). No HS Ph2 PoC efficacy readout reported yet.","_source":"https://www.almirall.com/newsroom/news/almirall-presents-r-d-pipeline-advances-supported-by-sustained-growth-and-leadership-in-medical-dermatology-at-j.p.-morgan-healthcare-conference","_confidence":"medium","failTP":20.1353467,"successTP":20.3037182,"baseTP":20.1936625,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":67,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ebglyss","indication":"ad_ebglyss","title":"FY26 guide EUR 1.21-1.24B (+9-12%); Ebglyss EUR 180-190M; EBITDA EUR 270-290M","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Almirall FY25 PR Feb 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.1936625,"successTP":20.1936625,"baseTP":20.1936625,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":935,"lenses":{"comparable":25.08,"eeRel":2.9608,"peRel":1.4538},"readouts":[{"a":"alm_il1rap","ind":"hs_il1rap","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","endpoint":"hiscr50_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.4138252,"lo":29.8146489,"hi":71.512537,"pBeatBest":0.25555,"bestDrug":"adalimumab","bestValue":58.9}]},"ALMS":{"name":"Alumis (post-Acelyrin merger)","subtitle":"Envudeucitinib (ESK-001) oral TYK2: Ph3 ONWARD1/2 psoriasis HIT PASI90 68%/62%, NDA 4Q'26; LUMUS Ph2b SLE MISSED overall pop Sep1'26 (IFNGS-high -> Ph3); post-Acelyrin; cash $502.3M to Q4'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":130,"netCashLocal":502.3,"cashPS":3.8638,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.45,"bear":4.52,"base":13.4,"bull":36.03,"psychedelic_bull":41.45},"weightedTP":18.3,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.tyk2_allosteric","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":71},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":71},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":71},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":29}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":92},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":92},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":92},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":97},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":97},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":3}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":291,"totalTAM":43.251,"totalWTD":11.0665104},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-01","asset":"envudeucitinib","indication":"esk001_sle","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-01 (MISS): Envudeucitinib LUMUS Ph2b SLE topline DID NOT MEET primary or secondary endpoints in the overall population. Robust responses in the prespecified IFNGS-high (high interferon gene signature) subgroup support advancing to Ph3 in SLE; PD data support the interferon-driven hypothesis; generally well tolerated, no new safety signals","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001847367/000184736726000009/alms-20260514xex99d1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":17.6788521,"successTP":20.7148767,"baseTP":18.3022389,"swingPct":16,"successMove":13,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"envudeucitinib","indication":"esk001_pso","title":"Envudeucitinib NDA submission moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis -- company reaffirmed 4Q 2026 (Sep 1'26 PR)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001847367/000184736726000009/alms-20260514xex99d1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.68298872,"successTP":34.9337022,"baseTP":18.3022389,"swingPct":29,"successMove":18,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":33,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":23.61},"readouts":[{"a":"envudeucitinib","ind":"esk001_sle","ds":"2026-09-01","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":4.8905009,"lo":-15,"hi":45.0864622,"pBeatBest":0.0267,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"ALNY":{"name":"Alnylam Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"AMVUTTRA topped $1B in a single quarter (Q2'26 TTR $1,030M, +89%) | FY26 product guide CUT to $4.7-5.1B (from $4.9-5.3B) on 2L volume normalisation | Nucresiran TRITON Ph3","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":133.81,"netCashLocal":568.94,"cashPS":4.2518,"tps":{"mega_bear":133.08,"bear":203.6,"base":272.5,"bull":347.07,"psychedelic_bull":435.01},"weightedTP":281.96,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.attr","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cns.neurodegeneration.caa","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","metabolic_genetic.porphyria.ahp","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.porphyria","metabolic_genetic.oxalate.primary_hyperoxaluria","metabolic_genetic.oxalate","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.galnac_platform","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.galnac_platform_nextgen"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":107},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":53},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":53},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":31},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":16},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.ahp","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.caa","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.oxalate.primary_hyperoxaluria","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.oxalate","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":122},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":43},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":23},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":21},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.ahp","purity":10},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.oxalate.primary_hyperoxaluria","purity":2},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.oxalate","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.caa","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":178},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":89},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.ahp","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.oxalate.primary_hyperoxaluria","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.oxalate","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.caa","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":73,"rarePurityWtd":89,"optionality":57,"totalTAM":42.52715,"totalWTD":27.1527225},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"mivelsiran","indication":"alz_rna","title":"REPORTED: Mivelsiran: cAPPricorn-1 Ph2 CAA fully enrolled; Ph2 in Down syndrome-associated Alzheimer's INITIATED (Q2'26) -- next milestone is cAPPricorn-1 topline","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":13,"success_apr":25,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.alnylam.com/press-release?id=29491","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company guidance shows planned H1 2026 initiation but no clear confirmation of actual start yet","_outcome":"completed","failTP":281.899418,"successTP":281.983358,"baseTP":281.963548,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026 medical congress","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"mivelsiran","indication":"alz_rna","title":"ALN-4324 GRB14 diabetes preclinical data presentation (separate programme -- attached to mivelsiran only as a placeholder)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.alnylam.com/press-release?id=28716","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"low","_rationale":"Preclinical data for type 2 diabetes program to be presented in 2026","_note":"2026-09-15 self-audit: success/fail values REMOVED -- an unrelated programme must not move mivelsiran's assumptions when resolved","failTP":281.869204,"successTP":281.901471,"baseTP":281.963548,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":4,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 23 2026 (EHDN)","dateSort":"2026-10-23","asset":"mivelsiran","indication":"alz_rna","title":"ALN-HTT02 Huntington's disease Phase 1b data at EHDN Oct 23 2026 (separate programme -- attached to mivelsiran only as a placeholder)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.alnylam.com/press-release?id=28716","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company expects to share substantial progress from ALN-HTT02 study at a medical congress in 2026","_note":"2026-09-15 self-audit: re-dated to EHDN Oct 23 2026; success/fail values REMOVED -- an unrelated programme must not move mivelsiran's CAA/AD assumptions when resolved","failTP":281.869204,"successTP":281.901471,"baseTP":281.963548,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":4,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"cemdisiran","indication":"gmg","title":"Cemdisiran (Regeneron) gMG NDA PDUFA -- Priority Review via voucher, target action date Nov 2026; approval triggers an Alnylam regulatory milestone and tiered royalties up to 15%","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/22/3315167/0/en/cemdisiran-regulatory-submissions-accepted-for-review-by-fda-and-ema-for-the-treatment-of-generalized-myasthenia-gravis-gmg.html","failTP":281.524294,"successTP":282.176226,"baseTP":281.963548,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"nucresiran","indication":"ttr_next","title":"Nucresiran TRITON-PN Ph3 topline 2028 + TRITON-CM readout ~2030 (event-driven)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"failTP":270.540611,"successTP":292.933384,"baseTP":281.963548,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"2028+","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"zilebesiran","indication":"htn","title":"Zilebesiran ZENITH CVOT progress (event-driven ~11,000-pt outcomes trial; first patient dosed Oct 2025; readout years out)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_note":"2026-07-09 self-audit: rolled from implausible 2026-09-01 'interim' -- ZENITH is a large event-driven CVOT dosed from Oct 2025, real readout 2028+; non-binary, no pos/apr change","failTP":281.893884,"successTP":282.039589,"baseTP":281.963548,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2970,"sanity":{"flags":["share_severe"],"maxShare":{"pct":95,"ceilPct":65,"position":"first_in_disease","asset":"mivelsiran","ind":"alz_rna","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.caa","somB":0.2,"tamB":0.2}},"lenses":{"comparable":337.07,"eeRel":0.8377,"peRel":1.6055}},"ALT":{"name":"Altimmune","subtitle":"Pemvidutide GLP-1/glucagon dual: PERFORMA Ph3 MASH initiated Jul'26 (BTD, FDA+EMA aligned, 52-wk readout 2029); RECLAIM Ph2 AUD POSITIVE Jul'26; RESTORE Ph2 ALD fully enrolled Jul'26; cash $519M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":194.47,"netCashLocal":519,"cashPS":2.6688,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.19,"bear":2.95,"base":4.11,"bull":5.34,"psychedelic_bull":6.6},"weightedTP":4.12,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cns.psychiatry.substance_use.alcohol","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.substance_use"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_glucagon_dual","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":170},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":85},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":28},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.alcohol","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":120},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":79},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":60},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.alcohol","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":176},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":88},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.alcohol","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":6}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":600,"totalTAM":169.048,"totalWTD":24.15906},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-13","asset":"pemvidutide","indication":"pem_mash","title":"REPORTED: Pemvidutide IMPACT Ph2b 48-week data EASL 2026 -- positive (fibrosis regression + metabolic; advancing to PERFORMA Ph3 H2'26)","type":"conference_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/altimmune-inc-alt-q1-2026-230138866.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":3.05165058,"successTP":4.73097507,"baseTP":4.1190162,"swingPct":35,"successMove":13,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":61,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":34},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-28","asset":"pemvidutide","indication":"pem_alcohol","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-28: RECLAIM Ph2 alcohol use disorder (pem AUD) POSITIVE -- met primary (significant reduction in heavy drinking days) at 2.4mg + key secondaries; planning EOP2 FDA meeting","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"RECLAIM met its primary endpoint (heavy-drinking-days reduction) at 2.4mg plus key secondaries; AUD program advances to an end-of-Phase-2 FDA meeting. De-risks the pemvidutide AUD optionality upward.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/28/3334113/0/en/altimmune-announces-positive-topline-results-from-reclaim-phase-2-trial-of-pemvidutide-in-alcohol-use-disorder.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.97586838,"successTP":4.31344766,"baseTP":4.1190162,"swingPct":8,"successMove":5,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"pemvidutide","indication":"pem_mash","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-03, initiated): Pemvidutide PERFORMA Ph3 MASH enrolling (FDA+EMA aligned; 52-wk fibrosis/MASH-resolution readout 2029)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":68,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ALT/altimmune-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-qgziun4hqaps.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Altimmune announced Aug 3 2026 it has begun enrolling PERFORMA, the global randomized double-blind placebo-controlled registrational Ph3 in MASH with moderate-to-advanced fibrosis; started ahead of the Q3 guide. No assumption change: base pem_mash pos 75 / apr 81 already sits ABOVE this catalyst pre-declared success_pos 72 / success_apr 78, because the Jun-2026 IMPACT Ph2b resolution had already re-rated the program to 78/82 territory.","_outcomeSource":"https://ir.altimmune.com/news-releases/news-release-details/altimmune-initiates-performa-phase-3-trial-pemvidutide-patients","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3.24877438,"successTP":4.67018032,"baseTP":4.1190162,"swingPct":10,"successMove":4,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"2029","dateSort":"2029-06-30","asset":"pemvidutide","indication":"pem_mash","title":"PERFORMA Ph3 MASH 52-week primary readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ALT/altimmune-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-qgziun4hqaps.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.60512923,"successTP":4.78943988,"baseTP":4.1190162,"swingPct":53,"successMove":16,"failMove":-37,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":39}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.78},"readouts":[{"a":"pemvidutide","ind":"pem_mash","ds":"2026-06-13","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":32.6903027,"lo":7.19044553,"hi":55.6537371,"pBeatBest":0.14725,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45},{"a":"pemvidutide","ind":"pem_mash","ds":"2029-06-30","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":30.2033367,"lo":6.48316409,"hi":53.1100652,"pBeatBest":0.11065,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"ALTHX":{"name":"THX Pharma SA (ex-Theranexus)","subtitle":"French rare-neurology royalty play -- Batten-1 (CLN3, first-in-disease, Ph3 2026) + TX01 (Gaucher/NPC, EU launch 2027); out-licensed to Biocodex (up to EUR173M) + Exeltis; cash EUR22.3M","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":13.8,"netCashLocal":22.3,"cashPS":1.6159,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0,"bull":0,"psychedelic_bull":0},"weightedTP":0,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.cln3","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.gaucher","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.niemann_pick_c","_platform.aso_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.gcs_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.various","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.gaucher","purity":158},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":100},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.niemann_pick_c","purity":23},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.cln3","purity":19},{"area":"_platform.aso_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.gaucher","purity":166},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":100},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.niemann_pick_c","purity":24},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.cln3","purity":9},{"area":"_platform.aso_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":100},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.cln3","purity":89},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.gaucher","purity":83},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.niemann_pick_c","purity":28},{"area":"_platform.aso_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":30,"totalTAM":4.02095,"totalWTD":3.09846575},"catalysts":[{"date":"Feb 10, 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-10","asset":"batten1","indication":"cln3_batten","title":"REPORTED (2026-02-10, signed): Biocodex strategic licensing deal (Batten + Gaucher + NPC) -- up to EUR173M (EUR12M upfront + EUR161M milestones + tiered double-digit royalties)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.biocodex.com/en/thx-pharma-and-biocodex-announce-a-strategic-licensing-agreement-covering-three-rare-diseases/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Executed Feb 10 2026: exclusive worldwide license to Biocodex for Batten-1 (CLN3) plus exclusive US/Canada license for TX01 (Gaucher, NPC). Already reflected in the subtitle, asset stages and scenario assumptions -- housekeeping resolution only, no assumption change.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.biocodex.com/en/thx-pharma-and-biocodex-announce-a-strategic-licensing-agreement-covering-three-rare-diseases/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":39,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"tx01","indication":"gaucher","title":"TX01 Marketing Authorization Application filing (Exeltis/Biocodex) -- EU registration path for Gaucher + NPC","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.actusnews.com/en/theranexus/pr/2026/04/28/thx-pharma-publishes-its-2025-annual-results-cash-position-as-of-march-31-2026-and-provides-a-business-update","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"batten1","indication":"cln3_batten","title":"Batten-1 Phase 3 initiation in CLN3 juvenile Batten disease (first-in-disease; launch targeted 2030)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.actusnews.com/en/theranexus/pr/2026/04/28/thx-pharma-publishes-its-2025-annual-results-cash-position-as-of-march-31-2026-and-provides-a-business-update","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"tx01","indication":"npc","title":"TX01 EU marketing authorization + commercial launch (Gaucher + NPC) -- first THX royalty revenue","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":78,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://manufacturingchemist.com/theranexus-exeltis-commercialisation-agreement-tx01-neurological-disorders","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0}},"ALVO":{"name":"Alvotech","subtitle":"Biosimilars | H1'26 adj rev $211.9M vs $306.1M LY on facility slowdown; FY26 guide reaffirmed $650-700M | Reykjavik inspection closed VAI; AVT05+AVT06 US decisions Q4'26","currency":"USD","country":"IS","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":312.02,"netCashLocal":-1167.2,"cashPS":-3.7408,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.15,"bear":1.61,"base":3.4,"bull":5.53,"psychedelic_bull":7.59},"weightedTP":3.22,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf_biosimilar","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23_biosimilar","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap_biosimilar","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_rankl_biosimilar"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":69},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":41},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":35},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":34},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":21},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":21},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":69},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":41},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":35},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":34},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":21},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":21},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":93},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":47},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":30},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":29},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":29},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":29},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":19},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":10}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":90.41,"totalWTD":90.41},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-20","asset":"avt02","indication":"avt02_ra","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-20: FDA closed the Reykjavik facility inspection with a VAI classification; AVT05 + AVT06 US BLAs resubmitted (decisions Q4'26) and the AVT16 (Entyvio) BLA accepted; H1'26 adj revenue $211.9M vs $306.1M LY but FY26 guide reaffirmed $650-700M","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/alvotech-announces-financial-results-for-the-first-half-of-2026-and-provides-a-business-update","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Clearing the inspection is the key unlock and puts three US filings back in play, but H1 revenue ran ~$94M below last year and the reaffirmed FY guide now needs an H2 more than double H1. Commercial biosimilar portfolio -- no pipeline PoS lever applies; narrative and catalysts updated instead.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":0.06960003,"successTP":0.979681795,"baseTP":3.21658705,"swingPct":14,"successMove":-35,"failMove":-49,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-35,"daysOut":null,"materiality":43},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"avt02","indication":"avt02_ra","title":"AVT05 (Simponi / golimumab biosimilar) US FDA decision on the resubmitted BLA -- anticipated Q4 2026 after the Reykjavik inspection closed VAI","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/alvotech-announces-financial-results-for-the-first-half-of-2026-and-provides-a-business-update","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.06960003,"successTP":0.979681795,"baseTP":3.21658705,"swingPct":28,"successMove":-70,"failMove":-98,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-70,"daysOut":null,"materiality":86},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-20","asset":"avt02","indication":"avt02_ra","title":"AVT06 (Eylea / aflibercept biosimilar) US FDA decision on the resubmitted BLA -- anticipated Q4 2026","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/alvotech-announces-financial-results-for-the-first-half-of-2026-and-provides-a-business-update","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.06960003,"successTP":0.979681795,"baseTP":3.21658705,"swingPct":28,"successMove":-70,"failMove":-98,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-70,"daysOut":null,"materiality":86},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"avt02","indication":"avt02_ra","title":"Alvotech FY 2026 revenue + EBITDA guidance execution ($650-700M / $180-220M)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://investors.alvotech.com/news-releases/news-release-details/alvotech-q1-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.74207464,"successTP":4.90507608,"baseTP":3.21658705,"swingPct":29,"successMove":16,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26}],"salesM2025":530,"lenses":{"comparable":7.46,"eeRel":0.3237}},"AMGN":{"name":"Amgen Inc.","subtitle":"Total Revenues $36.75B 2025 (+9%) | Repatha/Tezspire/Imdelltra/Tepezza growth | Prolia/Xgeva LOE Feb 2025 | MariTide obesity Ph3 transformational","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":539,"netCashLocal":-43315,"cashPS":-80.3618,"tps":{"mega_bear":78.62,"bear":140,"base":231.02,"bull":348.01,"psychedelic_bull":512.77},"weightedTP":253.08,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","oncology.supportive_care.bone_metastases","oncology","oncology.supportive_care","ophthalmology.orbit.ted","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.orbit","oncology.leukemia.all","oncology.leukemia","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","hematology.marrow_failure","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","immunology.demyelinating.nmosd","immunology.demyelinating","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.lung","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology.retina","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_rankl","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pcsk9","small_molecule.enzyme.pde4","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.tnf_receptor","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_sclerostin","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_igf1r","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cd19_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.tpo_peptibody","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tslp","small_molecule.enzyme.proteasome","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.epo_long_acting","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.uricase","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_egfr","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd19","biologic.antibody.bispecific.dll3_cd3","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_adalimumab","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap_biosimilar","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_bevacizumab","small_molecule.kinase.kras_g12c","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_diversified","biologic.antibody.conjugate.gipr_glp1","biologic.antibody.conjugate","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.lpa_targeted","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ox40","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bite_steap1_cd3"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":55},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":30},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":8},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.bone_metastases","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.nmosd","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":31},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":23},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.bone_metastases","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.nmosd","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.bone_metastases","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.nmosd","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":6,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":31,"totalTAM":528.10549,"totalWTD":403.72396},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"olpasiran","indication":"olpa_lpa","title":"Olpasiran OCEAN-Lp(a) Phase 3 CV outcomes readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"AMGN pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":250.572129,"successTP":254.43753,"baseTP":253.082305,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"maritide","indication":"maritide_obesity","title":"MariTide MARITIME-1 obesity Phase 3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"AMGN pipeline / clinicaltrials.gov","_confidence":"high","_note":"Slipped: pivotal MARITIME-1 (Phase 3 chronic weight management) topline now expected early 2027, not mid-2026, per Amgen updates as of 2026-07-06; trials still enrolling.","failTP":244.862952,"successTP":260.158347,"baseTP":253.082305,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":56,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rocatinlimab","indication":"roca_ad","title":"Rocatinlimab Phase 3 ROCKET atopic dermatitis readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"AMGN pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":238.493704,"successTP":260.906051,"baseTP":253.082305,"swingPct":9,"successMove":3,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":35223,"lenses":{"comparable":148.19,"eeRel":0.8719,"peRel":0.7169},"readouts":[{"a":"maritide","ind":"maritide_obesity","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":10.0502042,"lo":-1.3355687,"hi":27.6317468,"pBeatBest":0.07135,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"rocatinlimab","ind":"roca_ad","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":45.2309014,"lo":1.49779836,"hi":87.9611558,"pBeatBest":0.0603,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"AMLX":{"name":"Amylyx Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Post-Relyvrio rebuild: avexitide LUCIDITY Ph3 PBH HIT Aug'26 (55% cut L2+3 hypo events, p=3e-6); NDA Q4'26, PDUFA'27; AMX0035 Wolfram Ph2 pos; cash ~$720M post-$500M raise","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":125.28,"netCashLocal":720.3,"cashPS":5.7495,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.66,"bear":14.76,"base":19.55,"bull":23.6,"psychedelic_bull":27.2},"weightedTP":18.36,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.metabolic.post_bariatric_hypoglycemia","endocrine","endocrine.metabolic","metabolic_genetic.syndromic.wolfram","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.syndromic","cns.neurodegeneration.als","cns","cns.neurodegeneration"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_antagonist","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","small_molecule.combination.pb_tudca","small_molecule","small_molecule.combination","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.capn2","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso"],"focus":[{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.post_bariatric_hypoglycemia","purity":119},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":60},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":44},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.syndromic.wolfram","purity":37},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":22},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.syndromic","purity":19}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.post_bariatric_hypoglycemia","purity":176},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":88},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.syndromic.wolfram","purity":16},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.syndromic","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.post_bariatric_hypoglycemia","purity":186},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":93},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.syndromic.wolfram","purity":10},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.syndromic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":4},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":19,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":64,"totalTAM":6.5263,"totalWTD":3.97728},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 18 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-18","asset":"avexitide","indication":"avx_pbh","title":"REPORTED: Avexitide LUCIDITY Phase 3 PBH topline HIT (Aug 18 2026) -- 55% reduction in composite Level 2+3 hypoglycemic events vs placebo, p=0.000003; ALL secondary endpoints met (L2 by SMBG and CGM, L3); no body-weight change; AEs diarrhea + injection-site reactions. Assumptions moved to declared success_pos/success_apr 95/95.","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Amylyx PR (BusinessWire) \"Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Announces Positive Topline Results from Phase 3 LUCIDITY Clinical Trial of Avexitide in Post-Bariatric Hypoglycemia\", Aug 18 2026","_confidence":"high","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-08-18 on primary source (company topline PR). Pre-declared success case was 95/95; applied in full per catalyst authorization. Base avx_pbh 72/85 -> 95/95. Residual risk is now regulatory/commercial (NDA Q4'26, PDUFA target Q3'27), not clinical -- downside scenarios rebuilt around label/launch risk rather than a primary-endpoint miss.","failTP":5.84015239,"successTP":21.8501263,"baseTP":18.3583236,"swingPct":87,"successMove":19,"failMove":-68,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":70},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"amx0114","indication":"amx0114_als","title":"AMX0114 ALS Phase 1 LUMINA Cohort 2 interim data","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://investors.amylyx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":18.0355265,"successTP":18.5937367,"baseTP":18.3583236,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"avexitide","indication":"avx_pbh","title":"Avexitide NDA submission target (post-LUCIDITY positive)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://www.amylyx.com/pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.5576067,"successTP":21.8154634,"baseTP":18.3583236,"swingPct":9,"successMove":4,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Q3 2027","dateSort":"2027-08-31","asset":"avexitide","indication":"avx_pbh","title":"Avexitide PBH PDUFA action date (target) + commercial launch","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.amylyx.com/pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.2129639,"successTP":21.9933838,"baseTP":18.3583236,"swingPct":59,"successMove":20,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":70}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":16.27},"readouts":[{"a":"amx0114","ind":"amx0114_als","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","endpoint":"alsfrs_r_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.44663079,"lo":-2.00315515,"hi":4.92957413,"pBeatBest":0.28325,"bestDrug":"edaravone","bestValue":2.49}]},"AMPH":{"name":"Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Specialty injectables + inhalation: BAQSIMI glucagon nasal $185M (+12%) + Primatene MIST OTC $109M + glucagon legacy + iron sucrose + generics | FY25 $720M (-2%); 2026 mid-high single-digit growth","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":42.54,"netCashLocal":-422,"cashPS":-9.9201,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.03,"bear":7.7,"base":18.95,"bull":32.07,"psychedelic_bull":51.22},"weightedTP":21.21,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","_established_products.generic_injectables","_established_products","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon.nasal","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon","small_molecule.gpcr.beta_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon.injectable","small_molecule.binder_chelator.iron_complex","small_molecule.binder_chelator","small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_inhaled","_diversified.generics.injectable_specialty","_diversified","_diversified.generics","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.insulin_biosimilar","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_generic","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":132},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":78},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":15},{"area":"_established_products.generic_injectables","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":118},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":75},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":32},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":19},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":19},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":19},{"area":"_established_products.generic_injectables","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":144},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":93},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":42},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.generic_injectables","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":33,"totalTAM":237.395,"totalWTD":178.07309},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-15","asset":"ipratropium_hfa","indication":"ipra_copd","title":"REPORTED: Ipratropium HFA Para IV first-filer launch (180-day exclusivity) -- launched Q2 2026 (ANDA approved Feb 24 2026); baked into commercial base","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"AMPH FDA Feb'26","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"FDA approved Ipratropium Bromide HFA (BE/TE to Atrovent HFA) Feb 24 2026 as first Para IV ANDA filer w/ 180-day exclusivity; commercial launch early Q2 2026. Atrovent HFA US IQVIA sales ~$112M LTM Dec 2025. Source: Amphastar PR / StockTitan Feb 24 2026.","failTP":20.151201,"successTP":23.4327667,"baseTP":21.2084589,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":69,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"mid-Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"ipratropium_hfa","indication":"ipra_copd","title":"Ipratropium HFA 180-day first-filer exclusivity EXPIRES -- generic entry; mgmt expects sales \"relatively flat\" thereafter (Q2 PR + Sep 8 2026 Wells Fargo conf.)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/amphastar-pharmaceuticals-reports-financial-results-for-the-three-months-ended-june-30-2026-302845270.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":20.151201,"successTP":23.4327667,"baseTP":21.2084589,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":69,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"amp004","indication":"amp004_diab","title":"AMP-004 insulin aspart biosimilar FDA approval + US launch (guided 2027; warning letter at IMS site could delay approvals)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.amphastar.com/media/document/95d73a92-b5d2-4a30-9799-582d600effc4/assets/Corp._Presentation_August.pdf","_confidence":"medium","failTP":16.4755747,"successTP":24.8545135,"baseTP":21.2084589,"swingPct":20,"successMove":9,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"amp018","indication":"amp018_t2d","title":"AMP-018 generic GLP-1 ANDA approval + US launch (guided 2027)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.amphastar.com/media/document/95d73a92-b5d2-4a30-9799-582d600effc4/assets/Corp._Presentation_August.pdf","_confidence":"medium","failTP":20.9885818,"successTP":21.3879279,"baseTP":21.2084589,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":66,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":715,"lenses":{"comparable":13.86,"eeRel":1.3429,"peRel":2.0211}},"AMRN":{"name":"Amarin Corporation plc","subtitle":"VASCEPA (icosapent ethyl) US franchise + VAZKEPA EU via Recordati ($25M upfront + $150M milestones); 1:20 reverse split YE'25 | FY25 $215M; cost savings $70M target ($31M done)","currency":"USD","country":"IE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":20.8,"netCashLocal":308,"cashPS":14.8077,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.61,"bear":10.12,"base":14.14,"bull":24.16,"psychedelic_bull":27.21},"weightedTP":11.48,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids"],"modalities":["small_molecule.metabolite_replacement.epa_ester","small_molecule","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":10.288,"totalWTD":10.288},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"vascepa","indication":"vasc_cv","title":"$70M cost savings target + Recordati EU milestones","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"AMRN FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.4778288,"successTP":11.4778288,"baseTP":11.4778288,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":215,"lenses":{"comparable":35.92}},"AMRX":{"name":"Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Generics + Biosimilars + Specialty | Q2'26 rev $796M (+10%), adj EBITDA $206M | FY26 guide RAISED to $3.10-3.20B / $750-780M EBITDA / $0.96-1.06 EPS | Net debt $2.66B, 3.6x","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":314.6,"netCashLocal":-2652.4,"cashPS":-8.431,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.06,"bear":7.91,"base":12.93,"bull":19.72,"psychedelic_bull":30.4},"weightedTP":13.51,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","_established_products.amneal_specialty","_established_products","_established_products.amneal_generics","_established_products.amneal_biosim","_established_products.amneal_avkare"],"modalities":["small_molecule.prodrug.levodopa_cd_er","small_molecule","small_molecule.prodrug","_diversified.branded.specialty","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.generics.mixed","_diversified.generics","_diversified.biosimilars.mixed","_diversified.biosimilars","_diversified.distribution.mixed","_diversified.distribution"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":200},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_specialty","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_generics","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_biosim","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_avkare","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":200},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_specialty","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_generics","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_biosim","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_avkare","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":200},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_specialty","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_generics","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_biosim","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.amneal_avkare","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":7.760208,"totalWTD":7.760208},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-29","asset":"crexont","indication":"pd_crexont","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-29: Positive EU CHMP opinion for Hopledo (IPX203) in Parkinson's motor fluctuations; Zambon (licensee) to launch across EU from Oct 2026 -- Amneal earns milestone + royalty (EU economics flow through Zambon, not direct Amneal sales)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/29/3318687/0/en/Zambon-and-Amneal-Announce-Positive-CHMP-Opinion-for-Hopledo-IPX203-for-Adults-with-Parkinson-s-Disease-and-Moderate-to-Severe-Motor-Fluctuations.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"CHMP positive opinion Jun 29 2026; EMA approval + Zambon EU launch expected Oct 2026. No pos change (CREXONT already commercial, pos=100); EU upside is milestone/royalty captured via val.milestones, not Amneal direct EU slice.","failTP":13.5082339,"successTP":13.5082339,"baseTP":13.5082339,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"crexont","indication":"pd_crexont","title":"CREXONT scripts trajectory + payer access milestones","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"AMRX FY25 results","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.5082339,"successTP":13.5082339,"baseTP":13.5082339,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"amneal_generics","indication":"generics_bucket","title":"FY26 revenue guide RAISED (2nd time) to $3.10-3.20B; adj EBITDA $750-780M; adj EPS $0.96-1.06 (prior $3.05-3.15B / $740-770M / $0.95-1.05)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"AMRX FY26 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.5082339,"successTP":13.5082339,"baseTP":13.5082339,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3054,"lenses":{"comparable":22.49,"eeRel":1.1405,"peRel":0.8723}},"ANAB":{"name":"AnaptysBio (post-First Tracks spin-off)","subtitle":"ROYALTY-ONLY post Apr'26 First Tracks spin-off: Jemperli (GSK) tiered 8/12/20/25% royalty -- pass-through to Sagard until $600M cap (mid'27-Q2'28); ANAB recapture thereafter; $100M buyback","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":29.73,"netCashLocal":-92.4,"cashPS":-3.108,"tps":{"mega_bear":15.66,"bear":32.4,"base":52.68,"bull":69.37,"psychedelic_bull":85.64},"weightedTP":50,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il36r"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":70},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":70},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":70},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":64},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":64},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":49},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":32},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":32},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":19}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":22,"totalTAM":44.1579,"totalWTD":36.1878048},"catalysts":[{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-12","asset":"imsidolimab_royalty","indication":"imsi_gpp","title":"Imsidolimab (IL-36R) GPP BLA/PDUFA decision Dec 12 2026 (Vanda-led; Ph3 GEMINI-1/2 POSITIVE, BLA accepted)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":48,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://ir.anaptysbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/anaptys-announces-positive-top-line-phase-3-clinical-trial","_confidence":"high","_note":"Ph3 GEMINI-1/2 resolved SUCCESS (750mg single dose 53.3% GPPPGA 0/1 vs 13.3% placebo, p=0.0131); FDA accepted BLA; PDUFA Dec 12 2026. Prior Ph3-topline catalyst reframed to the approval decision.","failTP":37.4438682,"successTP":59.0715193,"baseTP":50.0049542,"swingPct":43,"successMove":18,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"jemperli_royalty","indication":"jemperli_other","title":"Jemperli rectal MSI-H label expansion (post-Cercek MSK landmark; GSK)","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"fail_pos":92,"fail_apr":94,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ANAB/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":46.0240044,"successTP":53.9670052,"baseTP":50.0049542,"swingPct":13,"successMove":6,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":96,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Mid 2027 - Q2 2028","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"jemperli_royalty","indication":"jemperli_endometrial","title":"Sagard royalty cap ($600M) cleared -- ANAB recaptures full tiered Jemperli royalty","type":"milestone","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.anaptysbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/anaptys-receive-50-million-capped-non-recourse-monetization","_confidence":"high","failTP":38.6855774,"successTP":61.8469733,"baseTP":50.0049542,"swingPct":14,"successMove":7,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19}],"salesM2025":7,"lenses":{"comparable":38.74,"eeRel":0.3509}},"ANIP":{"name":"ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Rare disease + specialty + generics | Q2'26 rev $266.0M, adj EBITDA $71.6M | FY26 guide REAFFIRMED $1.05-1.12B; Cortrophin guide TRIMMED to $520-540M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":22,"netCashLocal":285,"cashPS":12.9545,"tps":{"mega_bear":49.79,"bear":86.93,"base":136.25,"bull":185.57,"psychedelic_bull":259.55},"weightedTP":143.02,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","ophthalmology.retina.dme","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","ophthalmology.uveitis","_established_products.generics_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.acth_analog","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","formulation_modifier.ocular.intravitreal_implant","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.ocular","_diversified.branded.generics_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":140},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":70},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":35},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":25},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":17},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":13},{"area":"_established_products.generics_branded","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":140},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":70},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":35},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":25},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":17},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":13},{"area":"_established_products.generics_branded","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":130},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":65},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":40},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":30},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":20},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":15},{"area":"_established_products.generics_branded","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":13.375,"totalWTD":13.375},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-16","asset":"generics_specialty","indication":"generics_legacy","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-16: Delaware court denied ANI's post-trial motions in the CG Oncology matter; ANI appealing to the Delaware Supreme Court (contingent recovery incl 5% royalty claim -- upside optionality, not a liability)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/16/3328832/0/en/ani-pharmaceuticals-announces-intent-to-appeal-rulings-in-cg-oncology-matter.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Trial-court loss on the unjust-enrichment claim; recovery now depends on a Delaware Supreme Court appeal. No config assumption references this claim, so narrative-only.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":143.023523,"successTP":143.023523,"baseTP":143.023523,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"cortrophin","indication":"cortrophin_gout","title":"REPORTED: Cortrophin Gel — 90-person rare disease sales force expansion for acute gouty arthritis","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ANIP FY25 PR Feb 27 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-08-07: Rare-disease sales force expansion completed (~50% headcount growth to ~180 reps for acute gouty arthritis), fully operational end-June, confirmed on Q2 call; Cortrophin guidance raised. Source: ANI Q2'26 results 2026-08-07.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":143.023523,"successTP":143.023523,"baseTP":143.023523,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-07","asset":"cortrophin","indication":"cortrophin_gout","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-07: Q2 2026 -- revenue $266.0M, adj EBITDA $71.6M, GAAP NI $24.7M; FY26 total guide reaffirmed $1.05-1.12B but Cortrophin guide TRIMMED to $520-540M (from $540-575M)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001023024/000102302426000068/ani-20260807.htm","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Total-company guidance held, so the SOTP commercial base is intact, but the Cortrophin cut (~$17.5M at midpoint, ~-3%) trims the rare-disease growth engine that carries the bull case. Net: neutral-to-slightly-negative on mix quality.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":143.023523,"successTP":143.023523,"baseTP":143.023523,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":873,"lenses":{"comparable":107.59,"eeRel":1.046,"peRel":0.9966}},"ANL":{"name":"Adlai Nortye","subtitle":"China-US oncology biotech: Buparlisib (AN2025) Ph3 BURAN MISSED OS May'25; AN9025 pan-RAS Ph1 FIH Feb'26; AN4005 PD-L1; $150M PIPE Apr'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":64.4,"netCashLocal":60.9,"cashPS":0.9457,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0,"bull":1.05,"psychedelic_bull":3.3},"weightedTP":0.32,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.tissue_agnostic.pan_ras","oncology.tissue_agnostic","_platform.checkpoint_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_pan_buparlisib","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.pan_ras","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.pdl1_oral"],"focus":[{"area":"_platform.checkpoint_discovery","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.pan_ras","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":23}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.pan_ras","purity":110},{"area":"_platform.checkpoint_discovery","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.pan_ras","purity":102},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":51},{"area":"_platform.checkpoint_discovery","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":24}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1567,"totalTAM":24.9935,"totalWTD":1.499642},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"an9025_panras","indication":"an9025_solid","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-03 (pipeline expansion): AN4035 pan-RAS(ON) inhibitor ADC -- Clinical Trial Notification submitted and HREC approval obtained for a Phase 1 trial in Australia. Not modelled as a separate asset (pre-first-patient, no disclosed economics)","type":"phase1_start","failTP":0.00624561356,"successTP":0.289739628,"baseTP":0.322181866,"swingPct":18,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":-18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"an4005_pdl1","indication":"an4005_solid","title":"AN4005 oral PD-L1 Ph1 dose-escalation initial readout","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://ir.adlainortye.com/news-releases","_confidence":"low","failTP":0.0780251041,"successTP":0.737139486,"baseTP":0.322181866,"swingPct":144,"successMove":90,"failMove":-53,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":-27,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"an9025_panras","indication":"an9025_solid","title":"AN9025 pan-RAS(ON) Ph1a initial dose-escalation data (QD arm, possible early look at the QW arm) -- company-guided 1H 2027; date rolled from Nov 2026 (FPI Feb 12 2026 US; QW intermittent-dosing arm first patient dosed Jul 16 2026)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/12/3236924/0/en/Adlai-Nortye-Announces-First-Patient-Enrolled-in-Global-Phase-1-Trial-of-Pan-RAS-ON-Inhibitor-AN9025-for-Solid-Tumors-Harboring-RAS-Mutations.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.00912672103,"successTP":1.02666543,"baseTP":0.322181866,"swingPct":221,"successMove":153,"failMove":-68,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":48}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.31}},"ANNX":{"name":"Annexon","subtitle":"Complement C1q: ANX007 GA ARCHER II Ph3 Q4'26 binary; ANX005 GBS EU MAA under EMA review (filed Jan8'26) + US BLA Q4'26, FORWARD Aug6'26 positive; ANX1502 oral CAD PoC; cash $225M to 2H'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":163.84,"netCashLocal":199.6,"cashPS":1.2183,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0.72,"base":2.42,"bull":4.16,"psychedelic_bull":5.66},"weightedTP":2.12,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.ga","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","oncology.plasma_cell.al_amyloidosis","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.fragment.anti_c1q","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fragment","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_c1q","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.enzyme.complement_classical","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":95},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":69},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.al_amyloidosis","purity":37},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":88},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":49},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.al_amyloidosis","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":148},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":74},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":50},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.al_amyloidosis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":1}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":95,"totalTAM":23.55,"totalWTD":12.05596},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"anx1502","indication":"anx1502_cad","title":"ANX1502 oral Ph1 PoC update in cold agglutinin disease","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001528115/000119312526211863/annx-ex99_1.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.08386306,"successTP":2.14576056,"baseTP":2.12105448,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"anx007","indication":"anx007_ga","title":"ANX007 ARCHER II Ph3 GA pivotal topline (binary; FDA FT + EU PRIME)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001528115/000119312526211863/annx-ex99_1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.139077325,"successTP":3.97996103,"baseTP":2.12105448,"swingPct":181,"successMove":88,"failMove":-93,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":34,"daysOut":null,"materiality":93},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"anx005","indication":"anx005_gbs","title":"Tanruprubart US BLA submission target GBS (EU MAA ALREADY SUBMITTED Jan 8 2026, under EMA review; FORWARD open-label US/EU data Aug 6 2026 supports filing)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":72,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/06/3340188/0/en/Annexon-Reports-First-U-S-and-European-Patient-Cohort-of-GBS-FORWARD-Study-Demonstrated-Rapid-Positive-Clinical-Responses-in-All-Tanruprubart-Treated-Patients-Within-One-Week.html","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Prior entry ('MAA submission target', dateSort 2027-06-30) was stale: the EU MAA was submitted to EMA on Jan 8 2026 and is under review. Repointed to the remaining regulatory milestone, the US BLA targeted Q4 2026.","failTP":1.57238698,"successTP":2.63980475,"baseTP":2.12105448,"swingPct":15,"successMove":7,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":66,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.21},"readouts":[{"a":"anx007","ind":"anx007_ga","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","endpoint":"ga_growth_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":8.08714038,"lo":-6.80473595,"hi":30.4365505,"pBeatBest":0.1216,"bestDrug":"pegcetacoplan monthly","bestValue":22}]},"ANRO":{"name":"Alto Neuroscience","subtitle":"Precision neuropsych: ALTO-207 Ph2b TRD topline 2H'27 + added Ph3 mono TRD trial; ALTO-100 BPD; ALTO-300 MDD; ALTO-101 CIAS; cash ~$338M pro-forma into 2030","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":38.86,"netCashLocal":330,"cashPS":8.492,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.95,"bear":10.17,"base":18.65,"bull":30.59,"psychedelic_bull":43.76},"weightedTP":17.85,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.bipolar"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.d3d2_5ht3_fdc","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","_platform.discovery.cns_biomarker","_platform","_platform.discovery"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":72},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":72},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":56}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":74},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":74},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":53}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":79},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":61},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":61}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":240,"totalTAM":33.75,"totalWTD":9.933138},"catalysts":[{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"alto207","indication":"alto207_trd","title":"ALTO-207 Ph2b TRD topline (potentially registrational)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ANRO/","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.9172361,"successTP":26.1855582,"baseTP":17.848523,"swingPct":86,"successMove":47,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":56,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":18.41}},"APGE":{"name":"Apogee Therapeutics (acquired by AbbVie; delisted Sep 2026)","subtitle":"ACQUIRED (delisted): AbbVie buyout CLOSED Sep3'26 at $135.11/sh all-cash (~$10.9B, no CVR) -- APG777 (zumilokibart) IL-13 Ph3 AD + APG808 IL-4R + APG990 OX40L now modelled on ABBV","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":75.4,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il13","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il4r","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ox40l"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":111},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":56},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":44},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":44},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":44}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":70},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":70},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":70},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":61},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":30}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":89},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":89},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":89},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":11}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":342,"totalTAM":62.12,"totalWTD":14.067895},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":0,"readouts":[{"a":"apg777","ind":"apg777_ad","ds":"2026-05-27","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.7664783,"lo":10.9216338,"hi":91.652127,"pBeatBest":0.08575,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7},{"a":"apg990","ind":"apg990_ad_combo","ds":"2026-10-31","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.8837523,"lo":7.12705876,"hi":94.568616,"pBeatBest":0.1029,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7},{"a":"apg777","ind":"apg777_ad","ds":"2028-09-30","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":45.0604691,"lo":1.70003696,"hi":88.1773285,"pBeatBest":0.061,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"APN":{"name":"Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited","subtitle":"Largest African pharma | FY26 (Jun'26): NHEPS +28% to 802c, normalised EBITDA R7.7B (+14%) on flat CER revenue, FCF R3.8B; FY27 guide EBITDA >=R9B, NHEPS +>50% | Heparin + GSK anaesthetics + Eprex","currency":"ZAR","country":"ZA","region":"MEA.OTHER","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":429,"netCashLocal":-675,"cashPS":-1.5734,"tps":{"mega_bear":64.4,"bear":105.29,"base":162.36,"bull":243.84,"psychedelic_bull":365.96},"weightedTP":179.45,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.vte","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","cns.pain.acute","cns","cns.pain","hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","hematology","hematology.marrow_failure","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["biological_extract.heparin.diversified_lmwh","biological_extract","biological_extract.heparin","small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_a_propofol","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.epo","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","_diversified.branded.south_africa_global","_diversified","_diversified.branded","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.semaglutide_generic","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":186},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":93},{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.vte","purity":4},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":181},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":90},{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.vte","purity":6},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":105},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.vte","purity":73},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":53},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":37},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":22},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":11},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":38,"totalTAM":154.656,"totalWTD":112.032},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-20","asset":"aspen_semaglutide","indication":"aspen_sema","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-20: Health Canada APPROVED Aspen-Semaglutide (generic Ozempic, T2D; 2 mg + 4 mg pens) -- launch gated by Dr Reddy API supply","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Aspen SENS 20 Jul 2026; Aspen Pharmacare Canada PR (newswire.ca, Jul 2026)","_confidence":"high","failTP":177.936365,"successTP":179.940353,"baseTP":179.449911,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"September 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-03","asset":"aspen_diversified","indication":"aspen_div","title":"REPORTED: Aspen FY26 (Jun-2026 year-end) results -- NHEPS +28% to 802c, normalised EBITDA R7.7B (+14%), FCF R3.8B, net cash ~R0.8B; FY27 guide EBITDA >=R9B and NHEPS +>50%","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Aspen FY2026 results / trading statement (SENS)","_confidence":"high","failTP":179.449911,"successTP":179.449911,"baseTP":179.449911,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"aspen_semaglutide","indication":"aspen_sema","title":"Aspen-Semaglutide Canada commercial launch (timing gated by Dr Reddy semaglutide API supply; impurity halt to at least late Oct 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Aspen SENS 20 Jul 2026; Dr Reddy supply update","_confidence":"medium","failTP":179.005109,"successTP":180.463791,"baseTP":179.449911,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"aspen_diversified","indication":"aspen_div","title":"FY27 insulin contract ramp ZAR 1B+ + Serum pediatric vaccines launches","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Aspen FY25 PR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":179.449911,"successTP":179.449911,"baseTP":179.449911,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2507,"lenses":{"comparable":225.26,"eeRel":0.7344}},"AQST":{"name":"Aquestive Therapeutics","subtitle":"Anaphylm sublingual epinephrine film: NDA CRL Jan 30 2026; RESUBMITTED Sep 17'26; Suboxone film + Exservan ALS commercial royalty; Oaktree $150M debt refi May'26; MCap $524M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":124.28,"netCashLocal":43.5,"cashPS":0.35,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.4,"bear":3.29,"base":5.25,"bull":7.41,"psychedelic_bull":8.98},"weightedTP":4.59,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","immunology","immunology.hypersensitivity","cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.substance_use"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.sublingual.epi_film","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.sublingual","formulation_modifier.sublingual.films_diversified"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":104},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":52},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":48},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":48},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":48}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":83},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":58},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":58},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":58},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":42}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":179},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":90},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":10}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":21,"totalTAM":6.156,"totalWTD":5.078948},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-08-15","asset":"anaphylm","indication":"anaphylm_anaphylaxis","title":"REPORTED 2026 (HIT): Anaphylm topline HUMAN FACTORS validation + PK study POSITIVE -- revised packaging cut median pouch-open time 17s->3s, revised IFU cut incorrect film placement >80%; these were the Jan 30'26 CRL deficiencies","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://investors.aquestive.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aquestive-therapeutics-announces-positive-topline-human-factors","failTP":1.57130186,"successTP":2.19277721,"baseTP":4.58500472,"swingPct":10,"successMove":-36,"failMove":-46,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":-38,"daysOut":null,"materiality":42},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"anaphylm","indication":"anaphylm_anaphylaxis","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-17 (HIT): Anaphylm NDA RESUBMITTED to FDA (post-CRL Jan'26; redesigned pouch, median open 17s->3s; confirmatory PK done) -- class/goal date set by FDA on review","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/17/3363841/0/en/aquestive-therapeutics-announces-resubmission-of-new-drug-application-to-fda-for-anaphylm-dibutepinephrine-sublingual-film.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.15698054,"successTP":6.52414887,"baseTP":4.58500472,"swingPct":48,"successMove":21,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":66,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-17","asset":"anaphylm","indication":"anaphylm_anaphylaxis","title":"Anaphylm FDA action on NDA resubmission (Class 2 = 6-month goal ~Mar 2027; Class 1 would be ~Nov 2026) -- FDA to set class after initial review","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/17/3363841/0/en/aquestive-therapeutics-announces-resubmission-of-new-drug-application-to-fda-for-anaphylm-dibutepinephrine-sublingual-film.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.12627131,"successTP":7.39753078,"baseTP":4.58500472,"swingPct":115,"successMove":61,"failMove":-54,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":44,"daysOut":null,"materiality":60}],"salesM2025":30,"lenses":{"comparable":6.17}},"ARDX":{"name":"Ardelyx, Inc.","subtitle":"Ibsrela (tenapanor NHE3) IBS-C + Xphozah CKD | FY25 $407M; FY26 Ibsrela guide CUT to $350-370M (Aug 6'26); Xphozah now in Medicare ESRD bundle (Jun'26), $750M target withdrawn; $1B'29 target at risk","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":248.1,"netCashLocal":30,"cashPS":0.1209,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.01,"bear":4.55,"base":7.58,"bull":12.19,"psychedelic_bull":18.4},"weightedTP":7.87,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.nhe3_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":140},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":70},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":60},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":30}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":132},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":68},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":66},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":34}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":129},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":71},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":64},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":36}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":15,"totalTAM":13.54,"totalWTD":11.818125},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 6 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-06","asset":"ibsrela","indication":"ibsr_ibsc","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-06: FY26 guidance CUT + Xphozah bundle loss confirmed -- Ibsrela FY26 guide cut to $350-370M (from $410-430M) on payer access friction; $750M long-term Xphozah target WITHDRAWN; Ardelyx dropped its CMS litigation after the June 2026 court loss -> Xphozah permanently in the Medicare ESRD bundle (impaired economics). Stock ~-18%","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ardelyx Q2 2026 report / guidance update (Aug 6 2026)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Growth ceiling impaired (Xphozah bundled, Ibsrela guide cut). Scenario weights shifted off the aggressive-upside cases (bull 25->17, bear 15->22) to reflect the capped ceiling; current revenue still growing so commercialRevM left intact.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":7.87420314,"successTP":7.87420314,"baseTP":7.87420314,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ibsrela","indication":"ibsr_ibsc","title":"Ibsrela FY26 guide $350-370M (cut Aug'26 from $410-430M); $1B 2029 target intact on paper but credibility hit; Xphozah in Medicare bundle","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ARDX Q2 2026 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.87420314,"successTP":7.87420314,"baseTP":7.87420314,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"ibsrela","indication":"ibsr_cic","title":"ACCEL CIC Ph3 topline (label expansion key binary)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"ARDX pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.87420314,"successTP":7.87420314,"baseTP":7.87420314,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":378,"lenses":{"comparable":7.08}},"ARGX":{"name":"argenx","subtitle":"Vyvgart $4.2B (+90%) | First OpProfit $1.05B | 19K pts | Vision 2030","currency":"USD","country":"BE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":60,"netCashLocal":2937,"cashPS":48.95,"tps":{"mega_bear":645.16,"bear":878.35,"base":1206.53,"bull":1713.59,"psychedelic_bull":2230.86},"weightedTP":1307.22,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.cms","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.fragment.fcrn_fc","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fragment","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_c2_complement","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.musk_agonist"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":70},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":52},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":46},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":37},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":30},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":24},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":12},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.cms","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":86},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":62},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":58},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":50},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":21},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.cms","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":123},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":87},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":37},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":12},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.cms","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":39,"rarePurityWtd":39,"optionality":35,"totalTAM":35.3685,"totalWTD":26.1751827},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 10 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-05-10","asset":"itp_expand","indication":"itp","title":"REPORTED: VYVGART seronegative gMG sBLA APPROVED May 10 2026 (label expansion to ALL adult gMG serotypes; ADAPT SERON Ph3 basis) -- prior catalyst mis-described as ITP","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"fail_pos":95,"fail_apr":97,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":98,"_source":"argenx PR May 10 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-10 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1301.87215,"successTP":1329.45817,"baseTP":1307.21601,"swingPct":2,"successMove":2,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-10","asset":"itp_expand","indication":"itp","title":"RESOLVED 2026-06-10: VYVGART Graves' disease registrational Ph3 VitaliThy (NCT07570316) initiated; recruiting, primary completion est. Jun 2028","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":75,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://argenx.com/news/2026/press-release-3216531","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company expects Graves' disease registrational trial to initiate in 2026","_note":"2026-09-22 late-catalyst fix: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07570316 actual start 2026-06-10; argenx H1 2026 report: registrational GD study ongoing. MISWIRED: Graves' is not the ITP indication and no Graves' indication is modelled in this config, so no pos/apr change; Graves' upside is unmodelled.","failTP":1298.61415,"successTP":1315.09136,"baseTP":1307.21601,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 17 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-17","asset":"myositis","indication":"myositis_iim","title":"REPORTED: ALKIVIA registrational Ph3 HIT Aug 17 2026 -- VYVGART Hytrulo met primary endpoint in autoimmune myositis (combined IMNM + DM), +15.4-pt TIS vs placebo at Wk52 (47.95 vs 32.56, p=0.0011), separation from Wk4 and sustained through steroid taper; opens rheumatology","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"argenx PR 2026-08-17 (globenewswire 3345813); Zai Lab co-announcement same day","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Primary endpoint met with p=0.0011 on the combined IMNM+DM population; IMNM has no approved therapy. pos/apr moved to the pre-declared success_pos/success_apr (90/92) in base and scaled monotonically across scenarios; residual risk is regulatory review, not efficacy.","failTP":1275.70737,"successTP":1314.84968,"baseTP":1307.21601,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Aug 27 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"pipeline","indication":"ai_pipe","title":"REPORTED: argenx COMPLETED the acquisition of Forte Biosciences Aug 27 2026 -- $77.00/share cash (~$2.2B, cash on hand, no CVR); adds first-in-class FB102 anti-CD122 (vitiligo Ph1b HIT, celiac Ph2, AA Ph1b). Forte now a wholly owned subsidiary; FBRX delisted.","type":"m_and_a","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":40,"_note":"ANNOUNCED 2026-07-27, close expected Q3 2026. All-cash tender offer at $77.00/share, ~$2.2B equity value, funded entirely from cash on hand, no CVR, no financing condition; conditions are majority tender + HSR. Adds FB102, a first-in-class anti-CD122 (IL-2Rbeta) mAb with a positive placebo-controlled vitiligo Ph1b (Jul 9 2026: mean FVASI -29.6% vs -7.9% pbo, p=0.020) and a celiac Ph2 readout due H2 2026. NOT yet reflected in assumptions: FB102 is a new asset that needs scaffolding into this config (vitiligo / celiac / alopecia areata indications) once the tender closes, and company.cash should drop ~$2.2B from the $5.0B carried here. Both flagged for manual application rather than auto-applied mid-tender. Sources: argenx PR 2026-07-27 (argenx.com/news/2026/press-release-3333257.html); Forte 8-K SEC 0001193125-26-316766.","_source":"argenx PR 2026-08-27","_confidence":"high","failTP":1306.82855,"successTP":1307.66161,"baseTP":1307.21601,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":9,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-08","asset":"pipeline","indication":"ai_pipe","title":"REPORTED: UNITY Ph3 (efgartigimod SC, Sjogren's) DISCONTINUED Oct 8 2026 -- IDMC interim futility, unable to meet clinESSDAI wk-48 primary endpoint; no new safety signals","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":45,"_source":"freshness","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/08/3376934/0/en/argenx-provides-update-on-phase-3-unity-study-of-efgartigimod-sc-in-sj%C3%B6gren-s-disease.html","_note":"Surprise (no pre-declared catalyst). Bounded freshness move: ai_pipe pos -4/-6/-8/-8/-10 across scenarios. The bucket's TAM is the Sjogren's market, so the full re-rate (retag/retire the bucket) is flagged for manual review.","failTP":1306.74364,"successTP":1308.05579,"baseTP":1307.21601,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"itp_expand","indication":"itp","title":"VYVGART IV primary ITP -- ADVANCE-NEXT confirmatory Phase 3 topline (H2 2026; supports US sBLA filing)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"argenx Q1 2026 PR + Jan 2026 priority review acceptance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1293.06725,"successTP":1325.99315,"baseTP":1307.21601,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"argx119","indication":"musk","title":"ARGX-119 adimanebart Phase 3 CMS trial initiation (slipped from Q3: NCT07746089 still Not yet recruiting as of Oct 2026; company guides 4 Ph3 molecules by YE26)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":65,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://argenx.com/news/2026/press-release-3216531","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company clearly states adimanebart will enter Phase 3 for CMS in 2026","_note":"ARGX-119 (adimanebart) CMS registrational Ph3 start guided Q3 2026 (per Q1'26 update); no first-patient confirmation as of Aug 12. Rolled to Q3'26. 2026-10-09: rolled Q3->Q4 2026; clinicaltrials.gov NCT07746089 'Not yet recruiting' (est. start Sep 2026, last update 2026-08-04).","failTP":1305.06244,"successTP":1309.00942,"baseTP":1307.21601,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"empas","indication":"complement","title":"Empasiprubart (anti-C2) EMPASSION Phase 3 topline in multifocal motor neuropathy -- head-to-head vs IVIg, ~100 patients, 24-week double-blind period. SLIPPED (date rolled from 2026-09-01): no Ph3 readout disclosed; Ph2 ARDA showed a 91% / 84% reduction in IVIg retreatment need across cohorts. Ph3 CIDP runs in parallel. No assumption change","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":85,"failTP":1305.53565,"successTP":1309.18611,"baseTP":1307.21601,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4200,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":73,"ceilPct":65,"position":"commercial_incumbent","asset":"commercial","ind":"fcrn_comm","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","somB":4.8,"tamB":6.6}},"lenses":{"comparable":958.43,"peRel":0.5536}},"ARMP":{"name":"Armata Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Bacteriophage platform: AP-SA02 IV S. aureus bacteremia Ph3 init H2'26 (protocol filed post-EoP2; Fast Track + QIDP; $28.7M cumulative DoD funding); AP-PA02 inhaled P. aeruginosa | Cash $24.0M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":37.18,"netCashLocal":24,"cashPS":0.6455,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0.03,"base":3.48,"bull":8.54,"psychedelic_bull":13.92},"weightedTP":3.03,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","infectious_disease.bacterial.skin_soft_tissue","infectious_disease.bacterial.respiratory_community"],"modalities":["live_biotherapeutic.bacteriophage.natural_cocktail.s_aureus","live_biotherapeutic","live_biotherapeutic.bacteriophage","live_biotherapeutic.bacteriophage.natural_cocktail","live_biotherapeutic.bacteriophage.natural_cocktail.p_aeruginosa"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":120},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.respiratory_community","purity":43},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.skin_soft_tissue","purity":37}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":120},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.respiratory_community","purity":43},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.skin_soft_tissue","purity":37}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":120},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.respiratory_community","purity":43},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.skin_soft_tissue","purity":37}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":223,"totalTAM":4.172,"totalWTD":1.29332},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"apsa02","indication":"sa02_bacteremia","title":"AP-SA02 Ph3 cSAB initiation (S. aureus bacteremia superiority) -- financing dependent","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.109523741,"successTP":1.65047526,"baseTP":3.02600868,"swingPct":15,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-21,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"appa02","indication":"pa02_cf","title":"AP-PA02 SWARM-P.a. CF Ph2 interim/topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.46176992,"successTP":4.43662438,"baseTP":3.02600868,"swingPct":99,"successMove":47,"failMove":-52,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"apsa02","indication":"sa02_bacteremia","title":"Financing event (raise / Innoviva draw / DoD award) -- $24.0M cash at Jun 30'26 does not fund full Ph3 execution","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.109523741,"successTP":1.65047526,"baseTP":3.02600868,"swingPct":15,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-24,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.25}},"ARQT":{"name":"Arcutis Biotherapeutics","subtitle":"ZORYVE Q2'26 net product revenue $129.9M (+59% YoY, +23% q/q; >280k scripts) | FY26 guide RAISED to $525-540M (from $480-495M) | Profitable | 7 FDA approvals in 4 years","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":130.52,"netCashLocal":136.95,"cashPS":1.0493,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.11,"bear":9.13,"base":21.05,"bull":30,"psychedelic_bull":38},"weightedTP":21.45,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.topical","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.pde4","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il13","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.jak1_topical","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":54},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":48},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":42},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":32},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.topical","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":7}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":46},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":38},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":31},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.topical","purity":27},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":27},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","purity":20},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.topical","purity":68},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":68},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":29},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","purity":28},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":51,"rarePurityWtd":42,"optionality":292,"totalTAM":43.133,"totalWTD":11.0128425},"catalysts":[{"date":"June 29, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-29","asset":"zoryve_exp","indication":"derm_exp","title":"REPORTED: ZORYVE pediatric psoriasis PDUFA decision","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/29/3319348/0/en/FDA-Approves-Arcutis-ZORYVE-roflumilast-Cream-0-3-for-the-Treatment-of-Plaque-Psoriasis-in-Children-as-Young-as-Age-2.html","_sourceUrl":"https://www.arcutis.com/arcutis-highlights-2026-strategic-priorities-and-anticipated-milestones/","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"sNDA for ZORYVE cream 0.3% in pediatric psoriasis has PDUFA date of June 29, 2026","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved ZORYVE (roflumilast) cream 0.3% for plaque psoriasis in children down to age 2 on June 29, 2026 -- routine label expansion of an already-marketed product; no valuation change.","failTP":17.9388064,"successTP":23.7750782,"baseTP":21.4473373,"swingPct":27,"successMove":11,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"arq252","indication":"hand_vit","title":"ZORYVE foam 0.3% vitiligo Ph2 topline + program-advancement decision -- enrollment COMPLETE; company guides Q4 2026","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":27,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":43,"success_apr":50,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.arcutis.com/arcutis-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial-results-and-provides-business-update/","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company expects program advancement decisions in Q4 2026 for vitiligo and Q1 2027 for HS","failTP":21.1504328,"successTP":21.5816861,"baseTP":21.4473373,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"arq234","indication":"ad_bio","title":"ARQ-234 CD200R agonist Phase 1 AD data","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":55,"failTP":21.144601,"successTP":21.8386244,"baseTP":21.4473373,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Feb 23 2027 (PDUFA)","dateSort":"2027-02-23","asset":"zoryve_exp","indication":"derm_exp","title":"ZORYVE cream 0.05% infant AD (3-24mo) sNDA accepted Jul 8 2026; PDUFA Feb 23 2027 (INTEGUMENT-INFANT: 34.4% vIGA-AD success, 58.3% EASI-75)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Arcutis PR 2026-07-08 (FDA sNDA acceptance, PDUFA Feb 23 2027)","_note":"2026-07-09 self-audit: rolled from dateSort 2026-08-01 (Q3'26) -- FDA accepted sNDA Jul 8 2026, decision now Feb 23 2027; roll only, no pos/apr change","failTP":19.511251,"successTP":24.0191551,"baseTP":21.4473373,"swingPct":21,"successMove":12,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":250,"lenses":{"comparable":27.64,"eeRel":0.1707,"peRel":0.1996},"readouts":[{"a":"arq234","ind":"ad_bio","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.6562317,"lo":6.8966834,"hi":94.8304245,"pBeatBest":0.1056,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"ARTV":{"name":"Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"AlloNK off-the-shelf allogeneic NK + anti-CD20 for B-cell autoimmune | RA registrational Ph3 (FDA-aligned, H2'26) + lupus nephritis Ph1/1b (Fast Track) | ~$349M cash, debt-free","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":50.76,"netCashLocal":349.4,"cashPS":6.8834,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.09,"bear":6.03,"base":8.39,"bull":12.99,"psychedelic_bull":18.05},"weightedTP":8.91,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.nk_cord_blood","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":143},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":72},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":28}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":158},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":79},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":42},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":21}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":141},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":71},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":59},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":29}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":530,"totalTAM":43.611,"totalWTD":6.9229776},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"allonk","indication":"allonk_ra","title":"AlloNK rheumatoid arthritis registrational Ph3 initiation (FDA-aligned single trial)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ARTV/artiva-biotherapeutics-announces-pricing-of-300-million-underwritten-c0hbunepntso.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.60912114,"successTP":10.5739133,"baseTP":8.9076634,"swingPct":14,"successMove":6,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"allonk","indication":"allonk_ln","title":"AlloNK lupus nephritis Ph1/1b data update (refractory class III/IV, +anti-CD20)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":14,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":38,"success_apr":52,"_source":"https://globalgenes.org/raredaily/fda-grants-fast-track-designation-for-artivas-allonk-in-lupus-nephritis/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.84270758,"successTP":9.7679319,"baseTP":8.9076634,"swingPct":15,"successMove":7,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"allonk","indication":"allonk_ra","title":"AlloNK rheumatoid arthritis expanded Ph1/2 autoimmune data (durability / drug-free remission)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://www.artivabio.com/nk-cell-therapy-pipeline/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.49511816,"successTP":11.6512056,"baseTP":8.9076634,"swingPct":58,"successMove":31,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":19.28},"readouts":[{"a":"allonk","ind":"allonk_ln","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.3625373,"lo":-15,"hi":56.2804697,"pBeatBest":0.08165,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"allonk","ind":"allonk_ra","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","endpoint":"acr20_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":56.5391312,"lo":11.9484709,"hi":73.1480111,"pBeatBest":0.2259,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 15mg","bestValue":64}]},"ARVN":{"name":"Arvinas, Inc.","subtitle":"PROTAC platform: Veppanu approved May'26 + licensed out to Rigel (50% econ split with PFE); ARV-102 LRRK2 Ph1 PD pos data + PSP Ph1b/2 2027; ARV-806 KRAS G12D (complete Ph1, then out-license) +","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":65.3,"netCashLocal":567.9,"cashPS":8.6968,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.45,"bear":9.51,"base":17.49,"bull":30.64,"psychedelic_bull":49.85},"weightedTP":19.49,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.progressive_supranuclear_palsy","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.kennedy_sbma","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","_platform.protac_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_degrader.serd_protac","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_degrader","small_molecule.protein_degrader.lrrk2_protac","small_molecule.protein_degrader.kras_protac","small_molecule.protein_degrader.bcl6_protac","small_molecule.protein_degrader.ar_protac","small_molecule.protein_degrader.mode_platform"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":68},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":30},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":30},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.progressive_supranuclear_palsy","purity":17},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.kennedy_sbma","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":3},{"area":"_platform.protac_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":13},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.progressive_supranuclear_palsy","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.kennedy_sbma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":1},{"area":"_platform.protac_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.progressive_supranuclear_palsy","purity":49},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":44},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":26},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.kennedy_sbma","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":19},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1},{"area":"_platform.protac_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":15,"rarePurityWtd":4,"optionality":181,"totalTAM":36.41645,"totalWTD":12.9464123},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-05-12","dateSort":"2026-05-12","asset":"vepdegestrant","indication":"veppanu_esr1m","title":"REPORTED: Vepdegestrant licensed to Rigel for exclusive global rights -- ARVN+PFE receive $70M upfront + $15M near-term + up to $320M milestones + tiered mid-teens to mid-20s royalty (split 50/50 with Pfizer)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"ARVN/PFE/RIGL deal PR May 12, 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12T00:00:00Z (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":11.5713232,"successTP":15.5679023,"baseTP":19.4919197,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-8,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"Aug 13 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-13","asset":"vepdegestrant","indication":"veppanu_esr1m","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-13: Veppanu (vepdegestrant) US commercial availability via Rigel at $29,400/month; $15M transition payment and first royalty NOT yet confirmed received (Q2'26 shows only ARVN's $35M half of the $70M upfront)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"ARVN/PFE/RIGL deal PR May 12 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_sourceUrl":"https://www.rigel.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/445/rigel-announces-availability-of-veppanu-vepdegestrant","failTP":11.5713232,"successTP":15.5679023,"baseTP":19.4919197,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-6,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"arv102","indication":"parkinson","title":"ARV-102 Parkinson's disease Phase 1 biomarker data at a medical congress (Oct 2026)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001655759/000162828026052139/q22026earningsrelease.htm","failTP":16.8334127,"successTP":18.3041225,"baseTP":19.4919197,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"arv393","indication":"dlbcl","title":"ARV-393 BCL6 PROTAC Phase 1 R/R DLBCL dose-expansion update","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_source":"ARVN pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":19.3212389,"successTP":19.4265035,"baseTP":19.4919197,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2H 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"arv806","indication":"krasg12d_pdac","title":"ARV-806 KRAS G12D PROTAC initial Phase 1 clinical data (solid tumors -- PDAC + CRC + NSCLC) -- guided 2H 2026 per Q2'26 results","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":75,"_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Per Q1 2026 update, Arvinas completed Ph1 dose-escalation enrollment for ARV-806 (NCT07023731) and plans to finish monotherapy dose escalation, then advance only with a partner; no initial clinical (safety/efficacy) data disclosed yet. Rolled ~1 quarter pending first data cut.","_source":"https://ir.arvinas.com/news-releases/news-release-details/arvinas-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and","_confidence":"high","failTP":17.405402,"successTP":32.9948396,"baseTP":19.4919197,"swingPct":56,"successMove":48,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"arv102","indication":"psp","title":"ARV-102 PSP Phase 1b/2 initiation -- SLIPPED from 2H 2026 to 2027 per Q2'26 results (Aug 4 2026)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"ARVN Q4'25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.428731,"successTP":18.1051243,"baseTP":19.4919197,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":16.6,"peRel":0.6288},"readouts":[{"a":"arv393","ind":"dlbcl","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":44.3833927,"lo":2.98051962,"hi":85.0226036,"pBeatBest":0.20845,"bestDrug":"epcoritamab","bestValue":63}]},"ARWR":{"name":"Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"REDEMPLO FCS launched (US + EU MA Jun'26, DE access Aug'26) - sHTG SHASTA-3/4 Ph3 MET Jul'26 (TG -79/-81%), now modelled as its own indication, sNDA end-2026 - RNAi platform + obesity","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":162,"netCashLocal":1400,"cashPS":8.642,"tps":{"mega_bear":14.01,"bear":30.82,"base":62.78,"bull":110.2,"psychedelic_bull":186.1},"weightedTP":76.92,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.arrow_trirna","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.apoc3","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.pcsk9_apoc3_dual"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":135},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":67},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":40},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":30},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":19},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":107},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":80},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":53},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":40},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":20},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":108},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":97},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":86},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":32,"optionality":562,"totalTAM":213.456,"totalWTD":32.265198},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 27, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-27","asset":"obesity","indication":"obesity","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-27: ARO-INHBE obesity Phase 1/2 interim data (EASL 2026) -- clinically meaningful signal in obesity + MASH (mixed/early)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"ARO-INHBE interim Phase 1/2a data presented at EASL 2026 shows clinically meaningful results in obesity and MASH treatment.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":76.3820298,"successTP":77.9244986,"baseTP":76.9208874,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":16,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Jul 22 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-22","asset":"plozasiran_shtg","indication":"shtg","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-22: Plozasiran SHASTA-3/SHASTA-4 sHTG Ph3 MET primary + ALL prespecified secondaries -- median TG -79%/-81%, significant acute-pancreatitis reduction (100% in high-risk), no new safety signals; sNDA by end-2026, ESC late-breaker Aug 30","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260722499878/en/Arrowhead-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Topline-Results-from-Phase-3-SHASTA-3-and-SHASTA-4-Studies-of-Plozasiran","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"SHASTA-3/4 both MET primary + all secondaries (median TG -79%/-81%) reported 2026-07-22, detailed at the ESC 2026 HOT LINE on 2026-08-30. RESOLVED 2026-08-31: the catalyst was previously attached to commercial/fcs (already approved, pos/apr 100) so its pre-declared success_pos/apr could not be applied. A dedicated `plozasiran_shtg` pipeline asset now carries the sHTG indication on the new cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg authoritative area, and the success values ARE applied there (base pos/apr 80/85).","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":66.6909659,"successTP":79.904447,"baseTP":76.9208874,"swingPct":17,"successMove":4,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Aug 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-30","asset":"plozasiran_shtg","indication":"shtg","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-30: SHASTA-3/SHASTA-4 full data at ESC Congress HOT LINE late-breaker -- median TG -79%/-81% at Month 12 (p<0.0001), >90% of plozasiran patients below 500 mg/dL, >50% below 150 mg/dL, statistically significant acute-pancreatitis reduction (100% event reduction in the high-risk stratum), favourable liver safety","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Confirmatory detail on the 2026-07-22 topline already baked into the config. No assumption change: the sHTG win is already recorded, and the pre-declared success_pos/apr (80/85) are mis-mapped onto the approved commercial/fcs indication. The economic effect is expanded sHTG peak revenue in the SOTP val block -- still FLAGGED for the owner, not auto-edited.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"Arrowhead company PR 2026-08-30 (Business Wire) / ESC Congress 2026 HOT LINE","_sourceUrl":"https://arrowheadpharma.com/en-us/newsroom/arrowhead-pharmaceuticals-presents-phase-3-shasta-3-and-shasta-4","failTP":66.6909659,"successTP":72.0547404,"baseTP":76.9208874,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-6,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"aro_dimer","indication":"ascvd","title":"ARO-DIMER-PA (PCSK9+APOC3 dual RNAi) initial Phase 1/2a data","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":35,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.defenseworld.net/2026/03/10/arrowhead-pharmaceuticals-teases-q3-data-wave-shasta-3-4-rnai-dimer-and-aro-mapt-readouts-ahead.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company expects Q3 2026 data from first dimer RNAi program showing LDL and triglyceride reductions","failTP":76.2023286,"successTP":77.5889513,"baseTP":76.9208874,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Late Sep/Early Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-09","asset":"aro_mapt","indication":"cns","title":"ARO-MAPT tau CSF knockdown data (slipped from 2026-09-15; mgmt Sep 2026: initial human data end of Sep or early Oct)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":23,"success_apr":22,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arrowhead-pharmaceuticals-teases-2026-catalysts-014829425.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company explicitly guided to late Q3/early Q4 2026 CSF tau knockdown data as key platform de-risking event","failTP":76.8856819,"successTP":76.9829648,"baseTP":76.9208874,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":200,"lenses":{"comparable":97.29},"readouts":[{"a":"aro_dimer","ind":"ascvd","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","endpoint":"ldl_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":35.1628183,"lo":-8.30123935,"hi":77.1201252,"pBeatBest":0.1509,"bestDrug":"evolocumab","bestValue":59},{"a":"obesity","ind":"obesity","ds":"2026-05-27","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":3.85461515,"lo":-2.31073385,"hi":25.3934203,"pBeatBest":0.03515,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"aro_mapt","ind":"cns","ds":"2026-10-09","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":2.88691839,"lo":-9.81441522,"hi":27.6375319,"pBeatBest":0.0269,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27}]},"ASND":{"name":"Ascendis Pharma A/S","subtitle":"Danish rare-disease specialty (TransCon platform) | FY25 EUR 720M / ~$778M | Yorvipath hypoparathyroidism EUR 477M + Skytrofa pediatric GHD + Yuviwel achondroplasia FDA Feb 27 2026","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":60.5,"netCashLocal":665,"cashPS":10.9917,"tps":{"mega_bear":66.38,"bear":109.4,"base":178.89,"bull":283.14,"psychedelic_bull":556},"weightedTP":199.52,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","endocrine","endocrine.parathyroid","endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","endocrine.pituitary","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.pth_analog","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.gh_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.cnp_analog","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il2","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","small_molecule.immune_receptor.tlr_intratumoral","small_molecule","small_molecule.immune_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":54},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":37},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":35},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":27},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":19},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":92},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":49},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":46},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":39},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":25},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":110},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":55},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":47},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":43},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":24},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":61,"rarePurityWtd":54,"optionality":32,"totalTAM":20.9555,"totalWTD":15.883368},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"yuviwel_cnp","indication":"achondroplasia","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-01: Yuviwel (TransCon CNP) US launch LIVE Apr 2026 (>60 enrollments across >35 HCPs by May 1; ODE thru 2033)","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"completed","_source":"Ascendis Q1'26 results 2026-05-07; launch PR (ODE + Yuviwel launch); FDA accel. approval Feb 27 2026","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.ascendispharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ascendis-receives-orphan-drug-exclusivity-and-launches-yuviwelr","_confidence":"high","failTP":199.518139,"successTP":199.518139,"baseTP":199.518139,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"yuviwel_cnp","indication":"achondroplasia","title":"Yuviwel EU CHMP opinion (TransCon CNP achondroplasia)","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Ascendis pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":199.518139,"successTP":199.518139,"baseTP":199.518139,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"transcon_il2","indication":"melanoma_il2","title":"TransCon IL-2 β/γ Ph2 readouts (mono + pembro combos)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Ascendis pipeline","_confidence":"low","failTP":199.518139,"successTP":199.545207,"baseTP":199.518139,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":752,"lenses":{"comparable":81.85,"eeRel":0.3559,"peRel":1.0783},"readouts":[{"a":"transcon_il2","ind":"melanoma_il2","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":13.5258925,"lo":0,"hi":40.5147357,"pBeatBest":0.10045,"bestDrug":"lifileucel (TIL)","bestValue":31.4}]},"ATAI":{"name":"atai Beckley (acquired by Lilly; delisted Sep 2026)","subtitle":"CLOSED Sep 11'26: acquired by Lilly for $6.75/sh cash + up to $2.50/sh CVR (~$2.8B up, ~$3.8B max); ATAI delisted; BPL-003 5-MeO-DMT TRD now modelled in LLY","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":368.17,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","cns.psychiatry.substance_use"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.psychedelic_5meo_dmt_intranasal","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":84},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":84},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":16}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":92},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":92},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":99},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":99},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":134,"totalTAM":18.18,"totalWTD":7.769424},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":0},"AUPH":{"name":"Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.","subtitle":"Lupkynis lupus nephritis pure-play | Q2'26 rev $83.2M (+19%), net income $37.4M; 2026 guide $315-325M | Aritinercept BAFF/APRIL: gMG Ph1/2 is the LEAD indication | $443M liquidity","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":133.1,"netCashLocal":382.7,"cashPS":2.8753,"tps":{"mega_bear":9.07,"bear":14.51,"base":21.47,"bull":35.64,"psychedelic_bull":66.85},"weightedTP":24.51,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","_royalty.auph_otsuka","_royalty","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.calcineurin_voclosporin","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.taci_fc","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":81},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":45},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":43},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":41},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":38},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":31},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":22},{"area":"_royalty.auph_otsuka","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":76},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":54},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":39},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":31},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":16},{"area":"_royalty.auph_otsuka","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":192},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":1},{"area":"_royalty.auph_otsuka","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":44,"rarePurityWtd":35,"optionality":144,"totalTAM":30.456852,"totalWTD":12.458829},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"lupkynis","indication":"ln_lupkynis","title":"Lupkynis FY26 guide $305-315M US (mid-teens growth on KDIGO 2024 triple therapy adoption)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Aurinia FY26 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":24.5083159,"successTP":24.5083159,"baseTP":24.5083159,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"lupkynis","indication":"ln_lupkynis","title":"REPORTED 2026: PRESERVE Phase 4 study of LUPKYNIS combinations in lupus nephritis INITIATED","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Aurinia Q2 2026 8-K Ex-99.1","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001600620/000160062026000059/exhibit991_q22026earningsr.htm","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Q2 2026 report announces initiation of PRESERVE, a Ph4 combination study in lupus nephritis; recorded for the audit trail, lupkynis already at pos/apr 100/100","failTP":24.5083159,"successTP":24.5083159,"baseTP":24.5083159,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"aur200","indication":"mg_aur200","title":"Aritinercept (AUR200) BAFF/APRIL: gMG Ph1/2 NCT07596901 progress (n=81, primary completion Mar 2029) and the still-unregistered SLE + IgAN starts; company guides four potential indications","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":85,"_source":"clinicaltrials.gov NCT07596901; Aurinia Q2 2026 8-K Ex-99.1","_confidence":"high","_note":"CORRECTED 2026-09-03. The config asserted an H1/Q3 2026 Ph2 start in SLE and IgAN. Neither study is registered; the programme opened in generalized myasthenia gravis instead (Ph1/2, n=81, primary completion Mar 2029). Rolled to mid-2027 with no assumption change.","_sourceUrl":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07596901","failTP":24.1679511,"successTP":24.685721,"baseTP":24.5083159,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":283,"lenses":{"comparable":25.71,"peRel":1.0408}},"AURA":{"name":"Aura Biosciences","subtitle":"Bel-sar AU-011 VLP-photosensitizer: Ph3 CoMpass choroidal melanoma topline H2'27 (first vision-preserving); NMIBC DEPRIORITIZED Aug'26; cash $323.8M to 1H'29","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":103.39,"netCashLocal":323.8,"cashPS":3.1318,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.83,"bear":3.32,"base":4.13,"bull":4.86,"psychedelic_bull":5.45},"weightedTP":3.93,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","oncology","oncology.eye","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.conjugate.au011_ir700","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.conjugate"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":21}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":157},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":22}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":198},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":494,"totalTAM":5.49425,"totalWTD":0.924744},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"belsar","indication":"belsar_nmibc","title":"REPORTED: Bel-sar Ph1b/2 NMIBC 3-month initial clinical data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":58,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/aura-biosciences-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-highlights","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-08-11: Positive Ph1b/2 interim in intermediate-risk NMIBC -- 81% objective response at 3mo (69% complete responses); 100% of pts reaching 9-12mo remain disease-free. High-risk 3mo collection ongoing. Source: Aura Q2'26 2026-08-11.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3.91590937,"successTP":4.03234837,"baseTP":3.92831195,"swingPct":3,"successMove":3,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-11-30","asset":"belsar","indication":"belsar_choroidal","title":"Bel-sar Ph3 CoMpass choroidal melanoma 15-mo primary endpoint topline","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":42,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/aura-biosciences-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-highlights","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.91471985,"successTP":4.59857525,"baseTP":3.92831195,"swingPct":43,"successMove":17,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":4.05},"readouts":[{"a":"belsar","ind":"belsar_nmibc","ds":"2026-07-31","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","endpoint":"cr_rate_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":21.8819811,"lo":2.79686007,"hi":81.8432344,"pBeatBest":0.02365,"bestDrug":"TAR-200 (gemcitabine RS)","bestValue":82.4}]},"AUROBINDO":{"name":"Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.","subtitle":"Indian top-3 US generics player by Rx volume | Q1 FY27 (Jun'26) rev INR 91.5B (+16% y/y), PAT INR 10.3B (+25%), EBITDA margin 21% | US generics + EU sterile injectables + ARV/HIV EM + biosimilars","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":579,"netCashLocal":3970,"cashPS":6.8566,"tps":{"mega_bear":1022.53,"bear":1510.11,"base":2212.4,"bull":3159.86,"psychedelic_bull":5012.64},"weightedTP":2223.55,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","oncology.supportive_care","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.aurobindo_auro_us_generics_other","_established_products","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.aurobindo_auro_eu_generics_other","_established_products.aurobindo_auro_growth_em_other","_established_products.aurobindo_auro_api_other","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_vegf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_her2","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.gcsf","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.semaglutide","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":64},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":32},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":29},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":4},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_growth_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_api_other","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":65},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":26},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":15},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":4},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_growth_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_api_other","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":28},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":12},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_growth_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.aurobindo_auro_api_other","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":982.1925,"totalWTD":962.4145},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"eugia_aflibercept","indication":"nvamd_dme_eu","title":"CuraTeQ ranibizumab (BP05) Phase 3 completion + first filing (was mislabelled \"aflibercept US filing/approval\" -- CuraTeQ has no aflibercept programme)","type":"bla_submission","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Aurobindo pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2223.51897,"successTP":2223.56965,"baseTP":2223.54694,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":83,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3532,"lenses":{"comparable":1848.34,"eeRel":1,"peRel":1.2072}},"AUTL":{"name":"Autolus Therapeutics plc","subtitle":"UK CAR-T -- AUCATZYL obe-cel CD19 r/r adult B-ALL (FDA Nov 2024); FY25 $74M / Q4 $23M; 2026 guide RAISED $140-150M (pos GM); AUTO1/22 + AUTO5 T-ALL pipeline","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":266.1,"netCashLocal":201.6,"cashPS":0.7576,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0.14,"base":2.59,"bull":8.05,"psychedelic_bull":11.31},"weightedTP":3.5,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.all","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_cd19","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_cd19_cd22","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_trbc2_tcell","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_tcell_receptor_beta1","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_dual_bcma_b_lineage"],"focus":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":51},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":58},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":13}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":61},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":30},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":13}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":67,"rarePurityWtd":64,"optionality":347,"totalTAM":14.3009,"totalWTD":3.1996261},"catalysts":[{"date":"2024-11-08","dateSort":"2024-11-08","asset":"aucatzyl","indication":"rr_b_all_adult","title":"REPORTED: AUCATZYL (obe-cel) FDA APPROVED Nov 8, 2024 for r/r adult B-cell ALL -- single-day apheresis differentiator","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Autolus PR + FDA approval Nov 2024","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2024-11-08 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":2.33884671,"successTP":4.64150034,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":33,"successMove":17,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"2025-07-21","dateSort":"2025-07-21","asset":"aucatzyl","indication":"rr_b_all_adult","title":"REPORTED: AUCATZYL EMA EU APPROVED -- conditional MA for adult (>=26y) r/r B-cell precursor ALL; FELIX trial (76.6% CR/CRi, mDOR 21.2mo)","type":"ema_approval","binary":false,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Autolus + EMA Jul 21 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-07-21 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":2.33884671,"successTP":4.64150034,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":59,"successMove":30,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"2025-11-15","dateSort":"2025-11-15","asset":"aucatzyl","indication":"rr_b_all_adult","title":"RESOLVED: NICE recommends AUCATZYL for NHS reimbursement (England + Wales) for adult >=26y r/r B-ALL; UK launch imminent","type":"pricing","binary":false,"_source":"Autolus + NICE Nov 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-11-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":2.33884671,"successTP":3.19444608,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":12,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"2025-12-08","dateSort":"2025-12-08","asset":"auto1_22","indication":"ped_b_all","title":"RESOLVED: ASH 2025 CATULUS Ph1 pediatric B-ALL data -- AUTO1/22 obe-cel-based dual CAR-T: 95.5% ORR with low high-grade CRS/ICANS","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_source":"ASH 2025 CATULUS + Autolus PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-08 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":2.57016912,"successTP":3.31025193,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":15,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"2026-01-12","dateSort":"2026-01-12","asset":"aucatzyl","indication":"rr_b_all_adult","title":"REPORTED: Preliminary FY25 Aucatzyl net product revenue $74.3M (Q4 $23.3M); >60 US centers active; >90% medical lives coverage; 2026 guide $120-135M (path to positive gross margin)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"Autolus Jan 12 2026 preliminary update","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-01-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":2.33884671,"successTP":3.19444608,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":12,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"auto1_22","indication":"ped_b_all","title":"AUTO1/22 dual-target CAR-T pediatric B-ALL Ph1/2 data update","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"Autolus pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.57016912,"successTP":3.31025193,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":22,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-08","asset":"auto5","indication":"ptcl_trbc2","title":"AUTO5 anti-TRBC2 CAR-T r/r PTCL Ph1/2 ASH 2026 data (paired with AUTO4 TRBC1 to cover full T-cell repertoire)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"Autolus pipeline + ASH 2026 calendar","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.67152608,"successTP":3.33910382,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":19,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":-17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"aucatzyl","indication":"rr_b_all_adult","title":"Aucatzyl FY26 results target -- $120-135M revenue; first full year of positive gross margin","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"Autolus 2026 guidance Jan 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.33884671,"successTP":3.19444608,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"obe_cel_ln","indication":"ln","title":"Obe-cel CARLYSLE Ph2 lupus nephritis full enrollment expected (autoimmune CAR-T expansion)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"Autolus Jan 2026 R&D outlook","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.34326253,"successTP":3.23833608,"baseTP":3.50027697,"swingPct":26,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-33,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-21,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":74,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","ratioPct":156}]},"lenses":{"comparable":9.97}},"AVBP":{"name":"ArriVent BioPharma","subtitle":"Firmonertinib EGFR TKI: FURVENT Ph3 1L ex20 MISSED PFS Oct 2026 (HR 0.75 p=0.065) | ALPACCA PACC Ph3 ongoing | Allist China royalty | Cash $373M into 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":48.32,"netCashLocal":373.1,"cashPS":7.7214,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.5,"bear":9.83,"base":11.75,"bull":14.72,"psychedelic_bull":17.91},"weightedTP":11.97,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.egfr_brain_penetrant","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":367,"totalTAM":34.72,"totalWTD":7.428344},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 6 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-06","asset":"firmonertinib","indication":"firmon_egfr_ex20","title":"REPORTED 2026-10-06 (MISS): Firmonertinib FURVENT Ph3 1L EGFR ex20 NSCLC -- primary PFS by BICR NOT met (240mg 11.0 vs 9.5 mo chemo, HR 0.75 [0.55-1.02], p=0.065; 160mg HR 0.91); ORR 60% vs 33%; OS immature","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868279/000110465926113898/tm2627092d1_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","failTP":11.6795537,"successTP":27.0929838,"baseTP":11.9687912,"swingPct":128,"successMove":126,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":26,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"firmonertinib","indication":"firmon_egfr_ex20","title":"RESOLVED 2026-10-06 (MOOT): Firmonertinib NDA submission 1L EGFR ex20 NSCLC -- FURVENT missed primary; company \"evaluating the full dataset\" to determine development path, no NDA commitment","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.arrivent.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.6795537,"successTP":24.7924907,"baseTP":11.9687912,"swingPct":22,"successMove":21,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":7,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":12.07},"readouts":[{"a":"firmonertinib","ind":"firmon_egfr_ex20","ds":"2026-10-06","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":10.8795216,"lo":3.86871691,"hi":28.1290905,"pBeatBest":0.0436,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5}]},"AVDT":{"name":"Avidity Biosciences, Inc. (acq. Novartis Feb 27 2026 $12B)","subtitle":"PRIVATE (Novartis acq Feb27'26, $12B/$72sh): AOC platform -- del-zota DMD44 BLA, del-brax FSHD biomarker HIT, del-desi DM1 Ph3 HARBOR MISSED Sep8'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon44","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.aoc_dmd_ex44","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.aoc_fshd","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.aoc_dm1"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":101},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":90},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon44","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":153},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":26},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon44","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":116},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon44","purity":36},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":36},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":11}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":195,"totalTAM":13.417,"totalWTD":4.55149025},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":0},"AVIR":{"name":"Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"BEM+RZR HCV: C-BEYOND Ph3 NA MET primary (non-inferior to Epclusa) Jul'26; C-FORWARD ex-NA fully enrolled (880+ pts), topline early Q1'27, NDA Q2'27; AT-587 HEV Ph1 started Jul'26; cash $219.5M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":80,"netCashLocal":219.5,"cashPS":2.7438,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.06,"bear":4.54,"base":6.49,"bull":7.67,"psychedelic_bull":8.71},"weightedTP":6.21,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hcv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.hev","infectious_disease.viral.dengue_antiviral"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antiviral.nucleotide_ns5b","small_molecule","small_molecule.antiviral","small_molecule.antiviral.nucleotide_polymerase","small_molecule.antiviral.nucleotide_guanosine"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":179},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.dengue_antiviral","purity":13},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hev","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":192},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.dengue_antiviral","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hev","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":198},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hev","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.dengue_antiviral","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":37,"totalTAM":4.91805,"totalWTD":3.5853955},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-28","asset":"bem_rzr","indication":"bem_hcv","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-28: BEM+RZR C-BEYOND Ph3 NA HCV topline HIT -- met primary (SVR12 non-inferiority vs sofosbuvir/velpatasvir) + key secondary endpoints","_resolvedSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/ -- Atea PR 2026-07-28 'Atea Pharmaceuticals Meets Both Its Primary and Secondary Endpoints in the Phase 3 C-BEYOND North America Trial'","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_confidence":"high","failTP":1.42526843,"successTP":7.21728064,"baseTP":6.2112369,"swingPct":93,"successMove":16,"failMove":-77,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":77},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"at587","indication":"at587_hev","title":"REPORTED: AT-587 HEV Ph1 first-in-human initiated Jul 2026 (immunocompromised chronic HEV GT3/4)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/atea-pharmaceuticals-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-business-update","failTP":6.13599953,"successTP":6.16563543,"baseTP":6.2112369,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Early Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-15","asset":"bem_rzr","indication":"bem_hcv","title":"BEM+RZR C-FORWARD Ph3 ex-NA HCV topline -- ROLLED from YE 2026 to early Q1 2027 per Q2'26 guidance","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_confidence":"high","failTP":1.42526843,"successTP":7.21728064,"baseTP":6.2112369,"swingPct":93,"successMove":16,"failMove":-77,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":77},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-15","asset":"bem_rzr","indication":"bem_hcv","title":"BEM+RZR NDA filing (if both Ph3 positive) -- guided Q2 2027","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.39873754,"successTP":1.46300697,"baseTP":6.2112369,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-15,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5.14}},"AVLN":{"name":"Avalyn Pharma","subtitle":"Inhaled antifibrotic platform: AP01 pirfenidone Ph2b MIST (PPF) topline H2'27; AP02 nintedanib Ph2 AURA (IPF); AP03 dual combo; IPO May'26 $345M gross; ~41.8M sh; MCap $1.16B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":44.33,"netCashLocal":398.7,"cashPS":8.9939,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.67,"bear":9.96,"base":14.39,"bull":22.3,"psychedelic_bull":30.45},"weightedTP":14.59,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","respiratory.fibrotic.ppf"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.inhaled.pirfenidone","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.inhaled","formulation_modifier.inhaled.nintedanib"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":163},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":100},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":37}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":142},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":100},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":58}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":170},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":100},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":30}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":263,"totalTAM":25.233,"totalWTD":6.9517515},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mid-2026","dateSort":"2026-08-01","asset":"ap01","indication":"ap01_ipf","title":"REPORTED: AP01 open-label extension longitudinal data readout","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":67,"success_pos":73,"success_apr":77,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/25/3262138/0/en/Avalyn-Announces-Publication-Demonstrating-Correlation-Between-Imaging-Improved-Lung-Function-and-Quality-of-Life-with-AP01-in-Patients-with-Idiopathic-Pulmonary-Fibrosis.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Non-pivotal open-label extension data from ongoing ATLAS trial expected mid-2026; provides additional safety/efficacy signals but not registration-enabling","_outcome":"completed","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-06: Long-term OLE data on AP01 (inhaled pirfenidone, up to 4y, favorable tolerability in progressive PF) presented at EULAR 2026 (Jun 3-6). Avalyn is private (no tradeable equity); supportive/neutral, not a discrete binary. Source: Avalyn/BioSpace.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":11.8957913,"successTP":20.1727324,"baseTP":14.5936101,"swingPct":48,"successMove":32,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"ap01","indication":"ap01_ppf","title":"AP01 Ph2b MIST topline (inhaled pirfenidone, PPF, n=375) -- enrollment completed Jun 17 2026, 52-wk topline H2 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/avalyn-completes-target-enrollment-in-phase-2b-mist-trial-of-ap01-inhaled-pirfenidone-for-patients-with-progressive-pulmonary-fibrosis","_confidence":"high","_note":"Funded pivotal Ph2b is the MIST trial in PROGRESSIVE PULMONARY FIBROSIS (PPF); enrollment completed ahead of schedule Jun 17 2026, 52-week topline H2 2027. Indication reassigned ap01_ipf -> ap01_ppf and scenario emphasis rebalanced so PPF (funded MIST pivotal) carries the primary near-term PoS; IPF is a strong secondary (Ph1b + ATLAS OLE + oral-pirfenidone/Esbriet precedent) but has no funded pivotal yet. Mgmt expects likely a 2nd confirmatory pivotal after MIST.","failTP":13.1712874,"successTP":15.6760876,"baseTP":14.5936101,"swingPct":17,"successMove":7,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":22.53},"readouts":[{"a":"ap01","ind":"ap01_ipf","ds":"2026-08-01","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":50.4309886,"lo":-82.8372015,"hi":254.576086,"pBeatBest":0.0913,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193}]},"AVTX":{"name":"Avalo Therapeutics","subtitle":"AVTX-009 abdakibart anti-IL-1beta: LOTUS Ph2 HS HIT May5'26 (HiSCR75 42.2%/42.9% vs 25.6% pbo); registrational Ph3 guided H1'27 | May'26 follow-on $404.9M net -> cash $472.2M, runway into 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":54.3,"netCashLocal":472.2,"cashPS":8.6961,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.51,"bear":9.96,"base":11.69,"bull":12.99,"psychedelic_bull":14.67},"weightedTP":11.15,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il1b","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":200},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":200},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":200},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":76,"totalTAM":8.59,"totalWTD":4.885992},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-05-05","dateSort":"2026-05-05","asset":"avtx009","indication":"avtx009_hs","title":"REPORTED: AVTX-009 Ph2 LOTUS HS topline (250 pts, abdakibart anti-IL-1β) -- HIT -- primary endpoint met at both doses; deep HiSCR75 + HiSCR50 response; advancing to registrational Ph3 (PR May 5 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/avalo-therapeutics-eyes-q2-2026-233917407.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Primary endpoint met at both doses; HiSCR75 response rates 42.2% (150 mg) and 42.9% (300 mg) vs 25.6% placebo","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/05/3288197/0/en/avalo-therapeutics-achieves-positive-topline-results-in-phase-2-lotus-trial-of-abdakibart-avtx-009-in-moderate-to-severe-hidradenitis-suppurativa.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":8.18558702,"successTP":12.2930255,"baseTP":11.1473998,"swingPct":37,"successMove":10,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-07","asset":"avtx009","indication":"avtx009_hs","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-07 (financing): $404.9M net follow-on -- 22,899,500 shares at $17.75 + pre-funded warrants for 1,400,000 shares at $17.74; cash to $472.2M at Jun 30'26, runway into 2029","type":"other","failTP":7.88247132,"successTP":7.91072925,"baseTP":11.1473998,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-14,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":57,"expectedReturn":-14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"avtx009","indication":"avtx009_hs","title":"AVTX-009 abdakibart registrational Phase 3 initiation in moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa (company-guided H1 2027 on the Q2'26 call)","type":"phase3_start","failTP":7.88247132,"successTP":7.91072925,"baseTP":11.1473998,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-9,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":12.79},"readouts":[{"a":"avtx009","ind":"avtx009_hs","ds":"2026-05-05","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","endpoint":"hiscr50_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.6584264,"lo":30.1573632,"hi":71.4881752,"pBeatBest":0.25485,"bestDrug":"adalimumab","bestValue":58.9}]},"AVXL":{"name":"Anavex Life Sciences Corp.","subtitle":"Blarcamesine S1R AD: EMA NEG Dec25 -> WITHDRAWN Mar26; FDA likely needs add Ph3 | Rett = adult Ph3 RS-005 (~170pts), FDA meeting GRANTED Sep9'26 on pediatric inclusion | Interim CEO | Cash $118M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":92.7,"netCashLocal":118.3,"cashPS":1.2762,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.87,"bear":1.72,"base":3.7,"bull":5.56,"psychedelic_bull":7.18},"weightedTP":2.95,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","cns.neurodevelopmental","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.sigma1_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":92},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":82},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":71},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":37},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":89},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":59},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":55},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":52},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":45}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":176},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":88},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":13},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":12},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":10}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":319,"totalTAM":16.854,"totalWTD":4.022912},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 20 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-20","asset":"blarc","indication":"blarc_ad","title":"REPORTED (completed): Nasdaq listing-compliance deadline MET -- Anavex submitted its compliance plan to Nasdaq Listing Qualifications on Jul 20 2026 for the delinquent Q1 FY26 Form 10-Q (Rule 5250(c)(1)); listing unaffected, staff review pending (extension up to 180d possible)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":20,"success_apr":30,"_note":"GOVERNANCE / LISTING RISK, not a clinical event -- no assumption change taken. Anavex received a Nasdaq delinquency notice on 2026-05-20 under Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) for failing to timely file the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Mar 31 2026, with a 2026-07-20 deadline to file the 10-Q and submit a compliance plan; an 8-K was filed on that date. Outcome not independently confirmable from public search as of 2026-07-27 -- left OPEN for the next pass to verify (check whether the 10-Q was filed and compliance regained). Context for the file: this sits alongside the Mar 26 2026 EMA marketing-authorization withdrawal for blarcamesine in early AD. The weighted TP on this config is ~+489% above the live price, which is the largest gap in this batch; that is a valuation-structure question (val multiples / scenario weights) flagged for manual review, not auto-editable here.","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"completed","_resolvedDate":"2026-07-31","_outcomeSource":"AVXL 8-K / PR, Jul 20 2026","failTP":2.7820715,"successTP":3.05025184,"baseTP":2.95259213,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"blarc","indication":"blarc_ad","title":"Blarcamesine AD FDA Type C / End-of-Ph3 meeting outcome (additional Ph3 or alternate path)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.75785808,"successTP":3.13669222,"baseTP":2.95259213,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"blarc","indication":"blarc_rett","title":"Blarcamesine Rett FDA meeting outcome (request GRANTED 9 Sep 2026) on adding pediatric patients to the approved adult Ph3 protocol ANAVEX2-73-RS-005 (~170 pts, randomised double-blind placebo-controlled) + RS-005 start","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.686576759,"successTP":4.75691408,"baseTP":2.95259213,"swingPct":138,"successMove":61,"failMove":-77,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":22,"daysOut":null,"materiality":73},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"blarc","indication":"blarc_rett","title":"Blarcamesine Rett potential NDA submission (US)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.629779789,"successTP":1.12521488,"baseTP":2.95259213,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-12,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":-14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.98}},"AXSM":{"name":"Axsome Therapeutics","subtitle":"Axsome Therapeutics · AXS-05 AD agitation approved Apr 30, 2026 · AXS-12 NDA accepted, PDUFA May 1, 2027 · AXS-14 back in Ph3 (FORWARD) after a Jun'25 Refusal to File","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":49,"netCashLocal":323,"cashPS":6.5918,"tps":{"mega_bear":52.86,"bear":92.15,"base":149.24,"bull":212.1,"psychedelic_bull":272.2},"weightedTP":157.72,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.sleep.narcolepsy","cns.sleep","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.pain.fibromyalgia","cns.pain","cns.psychiatry.adhd"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.nmda_sigma1_modulator","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.transporter.dat_net","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_modulator","small_molecule.ion_channel.nmda_modulator","small_molecule.transporter.dri"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":57},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":55},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":38},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":32},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":32},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":28},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":25},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":11},{"area":"cns.pain.fibromyalgia","purity":6},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":56},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":54},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":41},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":41},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":32},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":27},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":14},{"area":"cns.pain.fibromyalgia","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":65},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":49},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":49},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":49},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":24},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":20},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":13},{"area":"cns.pain.fibromyalgia","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":7},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":28,"rarePurityWtd":27,"optionality":28,"totalTAM":47.3915,"totalWTD":36.96695},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2025","dateSort":"2025-06-09","asset":"axs14","indication":"fibro","title":"REPORTED 2025-06-09 (MISS, previously unrecorded): FDA issued a REFUSAL TO FILE on the AXS-14 fibromyalgia NDA -- one of the two placebo-controlled studies judged not adequate and well-controlled (8-week primary endpoint, flexible dosing). The config still described the asset as \"NDA submitted\"","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":90,"failTP":156.436897,"successTP":164.416647,"baseTP":157.721801,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Apr 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"axs05_ad","indication":"ad_agit","title":"REPORTED: AUVELITY (AXS-05) FDA-approved for agitation associated with Alzheimer's dementia (Apr 30 2026) -- first non-antipsychotic for the indication (ADVANCE-1 + ACCORD-2)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"success","_resolvedDate":"2026-04-30","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved AUVELITY (dextromethorphan HBr/bupropion HCl) for agitation associated with dementia due to Alzheimer's disease on Apr 30 2026; first non-antipsychotic for the indication. Already priced (pos/apr 100 across scenarios); adds provenance + closes stage-text drift. No re-rate.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/30/3285345/33090/en/axsome-therapeutics-announces-fda-approval-of-auvelity-dextromethorphan-hbr-and-bupropion-hcl-for-the-treatment-of-agitation-associated-with-dementia-due-to-alzheimer-s-disease.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":153.642106,"successTP":159.216325,"baseTP":157.721801,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Jun 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-03","asset":"sunosi","indication":"eds","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-03: SUNOSI patent litigation SETTLED -- 5 generic licensees granted entry on/after Sep 1 2040 (~14yr LOE runway preserved, removes earlier-entry tail risk; SUNOSI $130M 2025 sales fully protected through 2040)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Axsome IR Jun 3 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Settlement resolves all ANDA Hatch-Waxman litigation; first generic entry no earlier than Sep 1 2040. Eliminates near-term LOE tail risk for solriamfetol franchise (SUNOSI + Ph3 ADHD expansion lifecycle).","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":157.721801,"successTP":157.721801,"baseTP":157.721801,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"1H 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"axs12","indication":"narco","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-15: AXS-12 (reboxetine) narcolepsy/cataplexy NDA SUBMITTED and ACCEPTED FOR FILING by FDA -- PDUFA 2027-05-01, no AdCom planned; supported by SYMPHONY + ENCORE Ph3 (both met primary cataplexy endpoint)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.neurologylive.com/view/axsome-file-nda-following-positive-phase-3-results-axs-12-narcolepsy","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"NDA for AXS-12 (reboxetine) for cataplexy in narcolepsy submitted to FDA in 1H 2026 (FDA pre-NDA minutes Dec 31 2025 confirmed package sufficient; submission anticipated Jan 2026). AXS-12 data presented at SLEEP 2026 (Jun 14-17). FDA acceptance/PDUFA not yet announced as of 2026-07-06.","_rationale":"Pre-NDA meeting minutes received Dec 31, 2025; NDA submitted 1H 2026. Filing acceptance decision pending.","failTP":149.520049,"successTP":162.723975,"baseTP":157.721801,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2027-05-01","dateSort":"2027-05-01","asset":"axs12","indication":"narco","title":"AXS-12 (reboxetine) PDUFA action date -- cataplexy in narcolepsy (no AdCom planned)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/15/3327580/33090/en/axsome-therapeutics-announces-fda-acceptance-of-new-drug-application-for-axs-12-for-the-treatment-of-cataplexy-in-narcolepsy.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":140.467227,"successTP":170.498967,"baseTP":157.721801,"swingPct":19,"successMove":8,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"axs14","indication":"fibro","title":"AXS-14 FORWARD Phase 3 randomized-withdrawal topline in fibromyalgia -- the study the FDA required after the RTF; first patient dosed Jan 15 2026, and the gate on any refiling","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"failTP":153.338819,"successTP":165.221726,"baseTP":157.721801,"swingPct":8,"successMove":5,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":660,"lenses":{"comparable":109.84}},"AYTU":{"name":"Aytu BioPharma, Inc.","subtitle":"Commercial specialty pediatric CNS | EXXUA 5-HT1a MDD launched Jan 2026 (FY26 $6.6M) | ADHD eroding (FY26 $45.8M, -20%) on generics | FY26 rev $57.6M | cash $26.3M, debt $17M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":19.68,"netCashLocal":9.3,"cashPS":0.4726,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.02,"bear":3.41,"base":5.92,"bull":8.18,"psychedelic_bull":8.57},"weightedTP":4.98,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.adhd","respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","respiratory","respiratory.upper_airway"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.serotonin_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.transporter.stimulant_mixed","small_molecule.transporter","formulation_modifier.oral_modified.pediatric_oral","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.oral_modified"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":86},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":63},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":54},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":54},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":28},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":86},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":63},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":54},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":54},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":28},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":14}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":97},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":91},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":51},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":51},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":28.1275,"totalWTD":28.1275},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jan 20 2026","dateSort":"2026-01-20","asset":"exxua","indication":"exxua_mdd","title":"REPORTED: EXXUA (gepirone ER) nationwide US launch -- first-in-class 5-HT1a MDD — launched on schedule Jan 20 2026; FQ3 (Mar-qtr) EXXUA net revenue $2.4M","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Aytu IR Jan 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"EXXUA launched nationwide. Q3 FY26 contributed $2.4M with rapid monthly compounding.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3.92060179,"successTP":6.4319542,"baseTP":4.97777173,"swingPct":25,"successMove":15,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-15","asset":"exxua","indication":"exxua_mdd","title":"EXXUA Year-1 launch run-rate -- key milestone for franchise scale","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Aytu IR FY27 guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.92060179,"successTP":6.4319542,"baseTP":4.97777173,"swingPct":15,"successMove":9,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":11.57}},"AZN":{"name":"AstraZeneca PLC","subtitle":"$58.7B 2025 (+9%) | Most diversified mega-cap pharma | $80B 2030 ambition | 20 launches 2025-30","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1551,"netCashLocal":-27382,"cashPS":-17.6544,"tps":{"mega_bear":110.03,"bear":152.98,"base":214.94,"bull":310.22,"psychedelic_bull":438.78},"weightedTP":235.41,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.gi","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology.gynecologic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.breast.tnbc.brca_mut","oncology.breast.tnbc","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.gi.pancreatic","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology","hematology.hemolytic","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","endocrine.calcium.xlh","endocrine","endocrine.calcium","oncology.sarcoma.nf1_pn","oncology.sarcoma","cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","cardio_metabolic.attr","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.akt_altered","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.her2_low","cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.egfr_tki","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pdl1_ctla4","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.transporter.sglt2","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.kinase.btk_covalent","small_molecule.enzyme.parp1_2","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_c5","small_molecule.gpcr.beta_agonist_corticosteroid","small_molecule.gpcr","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il5r","small_molecule.gpcr.triple_therapy_ics_laba_lama","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tslp","small_molecule.gpcr.p2y12","small_molecule.enzyme.hmg_coa_reductase","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.her2","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_rsv_long_acting","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ifnar1","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.tnsalp","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","small_molecule.kinase.mek1_2","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.ttr","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","small_molecule.kinase.akt","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.trop2_adc","small_molecule.ion_channel.apol1","small_molecule.ion_channel","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.lpa_targeted","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","small_molecule.kinase.egfr_3rd_gen","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pdl1","small_molecule.enzyme.cyp11b2","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.cldn18_2","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":23},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":21},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":16},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":13},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":10},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":10},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.nf1_pn","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.akt_altered","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.her2_low","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.brca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":35},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":12},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":9},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.her2_low","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.nf1_pn","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.akt_altered","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.brca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.brca_mut","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.her2_low","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.hyperphosphatemia","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.nf1_pn","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.akt_altered","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":9,"rarePurityWtd":10,"optionality":11,"totalTAM":500.53905,"totalWTD":449.756862},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-10-29","dateSort":"2025-10-29","asset":"enhertu_azn","indication":"tdxd_breast_1l","title":"REPORTED (2025-12-15, success): T-DXd DESTINY-Breast09 1L HER2+ MBC FDA APPROVED (PFS 40.7 vs 26.9mo, HR 0.56, p<0.0001); Enhertu enters front-line HER2+ breast","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"AZN/DSKY pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Statistically significant PFS improvement; led to FDA approval of T-DXd plus pertuzumab combination","_outcomeSource":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2508668","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":235.412346,"successTP":235.412346,"baseTP":235.412346,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-18","asset":"baxdrostat","indication":"baxd_htn","title":"REPORTED: Baxfendy (baxdrostat) FDA APPROVED May 18 2026 - first-in-class aldosterone synthase inhibitor for uncontrolled hypertension on background therapy; US launch early Jun 2026","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"failTP":233.221041,"successTP":235.975576,"baseTP":235.412346,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-27","asset":"sone_ve","indication":"sone_gastric_2l","title":"REPORTED (2026-07-27, HIT): CLARITY-Gastric 01 Ph3 MET BOTH co-primary OS endpoints -- sonesitatug vedotin (AZD0901) delivered a statistically significant, clinically meaningful OS improvement in 3L+ AND in the overall 2L+ CLDN18.2-positive gastric/GEJ population; first CLDN18.2 ADC with a Ph3 OS benefit","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2026/sone-ve-improved-survival-in-gastric-cancers.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":235.039304,"successTP":235.517679,"baseTP":235.412346,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"datroway","indication":"dato_nsclc","title":"Datroway TROPION-Lung01 NSCLC Phase 3 readout + filing","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"AZN/DSKY pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":229.841144,"successTP":239.391582,"baseTP":235.412346,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"azd0780","indication":"azd0780_lipids","title":"AZD0780 oral PCSK9 Phase 3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"AZN pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":234.683513,"successTP":235.816357,"baseTP":235.412346,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"sone_ve","indication":"sone_gastric_2l","title":"Sonesitatug vedotin global regulatory submissions + first approvals in 2L+ CLDN18.2+ gastric/GEJ","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2026/sone-ve-improved-survival-in-gastric-cancers.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":235.178779,"successTP":235.571506,"baseTP":235.412346,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":53784,"lenses":{"comparable":141.65,"eeRel":0.9964,"peRel":0.7877},"readouts":[{"a":"datroway","ind":"dato_nsclc","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":16.7675948,"lo":4.84154177,"hi":32.2828865,"pBeatBest":0.14725,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5},{"a":"azd0780","ind":"azd0780_lipids","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","endpoint":"ldl_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":38.4579925,"lo":-5.65179741,"hi":76.8973144,"pBeatBest":0.16175,"bestDrug":"evolocumab","bestValue":59}]},"BAVA":{"name":"Bavarian Nordic A/S","subtitle":"Danish vaccine specialty | H1'26 DKK 3.09B, EBITDA margin 35%; Q2 +23% | FY26 guide UPGRADED to ~DKK 5.7B, margin ~30% | Travel Health +45%; Vimkunya guide cut to DKK 200M | EC pediatric mpox Aug'26","currency":"DKK","country":"DK","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":77.51,"netCashLocal":3300,"cashPS":42.5752,"tps":{"mega_bear":76.56,"bear":93.76,"base":122.45,"bull":168.4,"psychedelic_bull":225.85},"weightedTP":128.21,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.smallpox_mpox","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.vaccines.rabies","infectious_disease.vaccines.tbe","infectious_disease.vaccines.chikungunya","infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","infectious_disease.vaccines.ebv","infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme"],"modalities":["vaccine.viral_vector.mva","vaccine","vaccine.viral_vector","vaccine.inactivated.rabies","vaccine.inactivated","vaccine.inactivated.tbe","vaccine.protein_subunit.vlp","vaccine.protein_subunit","vaccine.inactivated.travel"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.tbe","purity":73},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":46},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":33},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.ebv","purity":22},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.smallpox_mpox","purity":13},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rabies","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.chikungunya","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.tbe","purity":95},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":61},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.smallpox_mpox","purity":17},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rabies","purity":15},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.ebv","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.chikungunya","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.smallpox_mpox","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rabies","purity":59},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.tbe","purity":26},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.chikungunya","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.ebv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":31,"totalTAM":18.108,"totalWTD":13.822894},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"vimkunya","indication":"chikungunya","title":"RESOLVED: Vimkunya Health Canada approval (CHIKV VLP)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Health Canada approved Vimkunya on 2026-06-29 for chikungunya prevention in individuals aged 12+; 5th regulatory approval (after FDA, EC, UK MHRA, Swissmedic).","fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/29/3318653/0/en/bavarian-nordic-receives-health-canada-approval-for-chikungunya-vaccine.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":128.207094,"successTP":128.207094,"baseTP":128.207094,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-31","asset":"jynneos","indication":"mpox_smallpox","title":"REPORTED: EUROPEAN COMMISSION APPROVED the MVA-BN mpox/smallpox vaccine for CHILDREN aged 2 to under 12 years (Aug 2026) -- pediatric label expansion in the EU","type":"label_expansion","severity":"medium","failTP":128.207094,"successTP":128.207094,"baseTP":128.207094,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"jynneos","indication":"mpox_smallpox","title":"UPDATED at H1'26 (Aug 21 2026): FY26 revenue guidance UPGRADED to ~DKK 5,700M (the upper end of the old DKK 5.0-5.2B range) with the EBITDA margin outlook raised to ~30%; Vimkunya guidance CUT to DKK 200M on slower US uptake","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Bavarian Nordic FY26 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":128.207094,"successTP":128.207094,"baseTP":128.207094,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"vimkunya","indication":"chikungunya","title":"Vimkunya pediatric Ph3 readout (CHIKV VLP label expansion <12y)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Bavarian Nordic pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":128.207094,"successTP":128.207094,"baseTP":128.207094,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":890,"lenses":{"comparable":70.38,"eeRel":1.4,"peRel":1.0548}},"BAYN":{"name":"Bayer AG (Pharmaceuticals division)","subtitle":"Pharma-only model | EUR 17.83B / $20B 2025 (-2%) | Xarelto/Eylea cliffs offset by Nubeqa+Kerendia growth | Lynkuet launch | EXCLUDES Crop Science (€22B) + Consumer Health (€6B)","currency":"EUR","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":982,"netCashLocal":-15007.1,"cashPS":-15.2822,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.99,"bear":12.45,"base":23.46,"bull":39.46,"psychedelic_bull":65.29},"weightedTP":26.98,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dme","ophthalmology.retina.rvo","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","nephrology.ckd.dkd","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","women_health.contraception.larc_implant","women_health","women_health.contraception","women_health.contraception.ocp","oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","oncology.tissue_agnostic","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.sarcoma.gist","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.lymphoma.fl","oncology.lymphoma","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","_established_products.bayn_heritage","_established_products","women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","women_health.menopause","oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.factor_xa","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.androgen_antagonist","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ns_mra","small_molecule.enzyme.sgc_stimulator","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.progestin_contraceptive","small_molecule.kinase.ntrk_selective","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.vegfr_multikinase","small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_alpha_delta","small_molecule.enzyme.cox_irreversible","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.nk1_nk3_dual_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.kinase.her2_egfr","small_molecule.enzyme.factor_xia"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":61},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":25},{"area":"_established_products.bayn_heritage","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":18},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.dkd","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":12},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":8},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":7},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":6},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":5},{"area":"women_health.contraception.ocp","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":2},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":2},{"area":"women_health.contraception.larc_implant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":55},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":31},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":26},{"area":"_established_products.bayn_heritage","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":19},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.dkd","purity":13},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":12},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":9},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":8},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":6},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","purity":6},{"area":"women_health.contraception.ocp","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4},{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":2},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":2},{"area":"women_health.contraception.larc_implant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.bayn_heritage","purity":44},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":29},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":17},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":13},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":11},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.dkd","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":7},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":6},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":6},{"area":"women_health.contraception.larc_implant","purity":5},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.menopause.vms_nonhormonal","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.contraception.ocp","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","purity":2},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":3,"rarePurityWtd":4,"optionality":6,"totalTAM":264.30065,"totalWTD":249.02568},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-07-14","dateSort":"2025-07-14","asset":"kerendia","indication":"hf_mid_pef","title":"REPORTED (2025-07-14, approved): Kerendia HFmrEF/HFpEF FDA approval (FINEARTS-HF Ph3 positive Aug 2024)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"FINEARTS-HF Ph3 positive; sNDA filed.","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved Kerendia for heart failure with LVEF ≥40% based on FINEARTS-HF trial showing 16% relative risk reduction","_outcomeSource":"https://www.ajmc.com/view/fda-approves-finerenone-for-heart-failure-with-mildly-reduced-or-preserved-lvef","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":26.9768359,"successTP":26.9768359,"baseTP":26.9768359,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2025-07-14","dateSort":"2025-07-14","asset":"kerendia","indication":"kere_hfpef","title":"REPORTED (2025-07-14, approved): Kerendia HFpEF FDA expansion approval (FINEARTS-HF)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"BAYN pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Same approval event as above - FDA approved for HFmrEF and HFpEF indication","_outcomeSource":"https://www.ajmc.com/view/fda-approves-finerenone-for-heart-failure-with-mildly-reduced-or-preserved-lvef","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":26.9768359,"successTP":26.9768359,"baseTP":26.9768359,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"asundexian","indication":"asun_stroke","title":"REPORTED (HIT): Asundexian OCEANIC-STROKE Ph3 met primary efficacy and safety endpoints - 26% ischemic-stroke reduction vs placebo on antiplatelet therapy, no increase in ISTH major bleeding (NEJM Apr 2026)","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":93,"failTP":25.4840716,"successTP":27.5057255,"baseTP":26.9768359,"swingPct":8,"successMove":2,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"bay2927088","indication":"nsclc_her2","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-10 (HIT): Sevabertinib (Hyrnuo) approved -- FDA accelerated approval pretreated HER2m NSCLC Nov 2025, 1L Sep 10 2026 (SOHO-01 1L cohort ORR 75%, n=69); Japan Aug 2026; China 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":75,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"HER2-mutant NSCLC ~2% of NSCLC; class peer Enhertu dominant.","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.bayer.com/media/en-us/us-fda-grants-accelerated-approval-to-bayers-targeted-therapy-sevabertinib-as-a-first-line-treatment-option-for-adults-with-her2-mutant-non-small-cell-lung-cancer","failTP":26.565595,"successTP":27.1566894,"baseTP":26.9768359,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-20","asset":"asundexian","indication":"asun_stroke","title":"Asundexian secondary stroke prevention FDA decision (NDA accepted under Priority Review May 19 2026; PDUFA not disclosed, est. ~Nov 2026); Japan MHLW and EMA decisions follow in 2027","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.neurologylive.com/view/fda-grants-priority-review-bayer-asundexian-secondary-stroke-prevention","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Bayer did not disclose a PDUFA date. Acceptance announced May 19 2026 implies submission ~mid-March (60-day filing review); Priority Review goal = 6 months from the filing date = 8 months from submission -> ~mid/late Nov 2026.","failTP":25.7167446,"successTP":27.6676289,"baseTP":26.9768359,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":84,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"elinzanetant_lynkuet","indication":"menopause_vms","title":"Lynkuet full-year launch + class leader vs Veozah (Astellas)","type":"registration","binary":false,"fail_pos":95,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":99,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"OASIS Ph3 superior efficacy + safety vs Veozah; FDA approval 2025.","failTP":25.5566145,"successTP":27.8012452,"baseTP":26.9768359,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-28","asset":"bay2927088","indication":"nsclc_her2","title":"Sevabertinib SOHO-02 Ph3 1L HER2m NSCLC vs SoC -- confirmatory for the US 1L accelerated approval (NCT06452277 primary completion est. Oct 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06452277","failTP":26.565595,"successTP":27.3116885,"baseTP":26.9768359,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":18174,"sanity":{"flags":["share_severe","oversub"],"maxShare":{"pct":86,"ceilPct":65,"position":"commercial_incumbent","asset":"mirena_yaz","ind":"iud","area":"women_health.contraception.larc_implant","somB":0.6,"tamB":0.7},"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","ratioPct":120}]},"lenses":{"comparable":31.31,"eeRel":1.7284}},"BBIO":{"name":"BridgeBio Pharma","subtitle":"Attruby ATTR-CM (Q2'26 US $222M) · BBP-418 LGMD PDUFA Nov 27 2026 (Priority) · infigratinib achon NDA filed Q3'26 · encaleret ADH1 NDA accepted (PDUFA May 8 2027) · $1B conv. preferred Jul'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":216.17,"netCashLocal":-1539.2,"cashPS":-7.1203,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.78,"bear":29.43,"base":93.98,"bull":143.73,"psychedelic_bull":232.16},"weightedTP":99.38,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.attr","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.lgmd","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","endocrine.calcium.adh1","endocrine","endocrine.calcium"],"modalities":["small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone.ttr","small_molecule","small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement.ribitol","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement","small_molecule.kinase.fgfr3","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.gpcr.casr_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ttr","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":143},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":72},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":25},{"area":"endocrine.calcium.adh1","purity":19},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.lgmd","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":12},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":132},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":66},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":28},{"area":"endocrine.calcium.adh1","purity":21},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.lgmd","purity":19},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":14},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":10},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":128},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":64},{"area":"endocrine.calcium.adh1","purity":37},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":26},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":19},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.lgmd","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":74,"totalTAM":31.726,"totalWTD":18.275144},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-07-01","asset":"infig","indication":"achon","title":"REPORTED: Infigratinib achondroplasia Phase 2/3 data","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":75,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Positive: Phase 3 PROPEL 3 topline (reported Feb 12, 2026, published NEJM) showed +2.1 cm/year mean improvement in annualized height velocity vs placebo -- largest such gain in any Ph3 achondroplasia study -- plus first statistically significant improvement in upper-to-lower body proportionality. Builds on positive PROPEL 2 Ph2 (basis for Breakthrough Therapy). NDA submission guided Q3 2026, EU MAA H2 2026, US launch early-to-mid 2027. Downstream NDA/MAA catalyst already captures positive Ph3.","_source":"https://investor.bridgebio.com/news/news-details/2026/BridgeBio-Reports-Positive-Phase-3-Topline-Results-for-Oral-Infigratinib-with-the-First-Statistically-Significant-Improvements-in-Body-Proportionality-in-Achondroplasia/default.aspx","failTP":95.7616476,"successTP":100.709212,"baseTP":99.3840378,"swingPct":5,"successMove":1,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"infig","indication":"achon","title":"REPORTED (Q2'26 8-K Aug 10 2026): Infigratinib achondroplasia US NDA SUBMITTED -- HIT on the US half; EU MAA slipped to Q4 2026","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investor.bridgebio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/2026/BridgeBio-Reports-Positive-Phase-3-Topline-Results-for-Oral-Infigratinib-with-the-First-Statistically-Significant-Improvements-in-Body-Proportionality-in-Achondroplasia/default.aspx","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"NDA/MAA submissions planned for H2 2026 following successful Phase 3 PROPEL 3 data.","failTP":95.3971049,"successTP":101.173609,"baseTP":99.3840378,"swingPct":6,"successMove":2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Nov 27, 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-27","asset":"bbp418","indication":"lgmd","title":"BBP-418 LGMD2I/R9 PDUFA decision (Priority Review granted May 27 2026; no AdComm planned) — would be first approved therapy for any form of LGMD","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/27/3301817/0/en/bridgebio-announces-fda-acceptance-and-priority-review-of-nda-for-bbp-418-for-lgmd2i-r9.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"NDA submitted Mar 30 2026; FDA accepted with Priority Review May 27 2026, PDUFA target action date Nov 27 2026. Date corrected from a placeholder 2026-01-20 that predated the submission itself. Orphan Drug + Fast Track + Rare Pediatric Disease designations; FDA not planning an advisory committee.","failTP":97.9074767,"successTP":99.9394056,"baseTP":99.3840378,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":93,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"infig","indication":"achon","title":"Infigratinib achondroplasia EU MAA submission (Q4 2026) -- US half DONE: FDA accepted NDA with Priority Review Oct 6 2026 (PDUFA Feb 4 2027)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":88,"_source":"BBIO Q2 2026 8-K","_confidence":"medium","failTP":97.5115144,"successTP":100.767705,"baseTP":99.3840378,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":66,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Feb 4 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-04","asset":"infig","indication":"achon","title":"Infigratinib FDA PDUFA, achondroplasia (Priority Review; NDA accepted Oct 6 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BBIO/bridge-bio-announces-fda-acceptance-and-priority-review-of-nda-for-auoyngw195ua.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":96.5405456,"successTP":101.313767,"baseTP":99.3840378,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"May 8 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-08","asset":"encal","indication":"adh1","title":"Encaleret ADH1 FDA PDUFA (May 8 2027; Priority Review later granted -- may come earlier; no AdComm)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001743881/000114036126029291/ef20078442_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":93.1714801,"successTP":102.842514,"baseTP":99.3840378,"swingPct":9,"successMove":3,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":600,"lenses":{"comparable":166.99}},"BBOT":{"name":"BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics","subtitle":"RAS/PI3Kα: BBO-8520 KRAS G12C ON/OFF (Sep'26: 63% ORR mono n=41; 75% ORR +pembro 500mg in G12Ci-experienced); focus 2L+ combo; 11818/10203 CRC+PDAC combos","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":80.17,"netCashLocal":344.1,"cashPS":4.2921,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.46,"bear":3.56,"base":3.85,"bull":4.36,"psychedelic_bull":5.07},"weightedTP":3.88,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","oncology.tissue_agnostic","oncology.gi.colorectal.kras_mut","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.gi.pancreatic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.kras_g12c","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.kras_pan","small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_alpha"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.kras_mut","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.kras_mut","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.kras_mut","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":16}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":670,"totalTAM":40.5333,"totalWTD":5.26693887},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"bbo8520","indication":"bbo8520_nsclc","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-08: BBO-8520 KRAS G12C Ph1 expansion + combo data readout","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":70,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.oncologypipeline.com/apexonco/bridgebio-oncology-shows-early-promise","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company promised another update with BBO-8520 in second half of 2026","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Mono 63% ORR (n=41) + pembro combo 75% ORR at 500mg (n=17, G12Ci-experienced) but 1L NSCLC deprioritized and focus narrowed to 2L+ combo; stock roughly halved. Neither success nor fail values applied -- pre-declared 73/78 is not stage-appropriate for a Ph1 asset.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3358113/0/en/bbot-announces-new-bbo-8520-data-highlights-strategic-focus-on-2l-nsclc-bbo-8520-combination-as-well-as-bbo-11818-and-bbo-10203-combinations-in-kras-mutant-cancers.html","_note":"2026-09-21: floors recalibrated to Ph1->Ph2 levels (was 73/78 success, 43/58 fail; oncology Ph2 LoA ~11% BIO-2021, so success floor pos x apr ~17-22%, fail ~2.4%).","failTP":3.7769068,"successTP":3.9286382,"baseTP":3.87781694,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":21,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bbo11818","indication":"bbo11818_pan","title":"BBO-11818 pan-KRAS Ph1 monotherapy data update","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":70,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://synapse.patsnap.com/drug/18f6f1ef65584b66acc30670e4840884","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Multiple data readouts expected in the second half of 2026 across BBOT portfolio","_note":"Rolled: Sep 8 2026 PR guides BBO-11818 + BBO-10203 monotherapy update Q4 2026. | 2026-09-21: floors recalibrated to Ph1->Ph2 levels (was 57/62 success, 27/42 fail; oncology Ph2 LoA ~11% BIO-2021, so success floor pos x apr ~17-22%, fail ~2.4%).","failTP":3.68895741,"successTP":3.98361997,"baseTP":3.87781694,"swingPct":6,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bbo10203","indication":"bbo10203_crc","title":"BBO-10203 PI3Kα Ph1 monotherapy data update","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":70,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://synapse.patsnap.com/drug/18f6f1ef65584b66acc30670e4840884","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Multiple data readouts expected in second half of 2026 including PI3K combo data","_note":"Rolled/retitled: Sep 8 2026 PR guides monotherapy update Q4 2026; breast deprioritized, combos now in CRC/PDAC. | 2026-09-21: floors recalibrated to Ph1->Ph2 levels (was 57/62 success, 27/42 fail; oncology Ph2 LoA ~11% BIO-2021, so success floor pos x apr ~17-22%, fail ~2.4%).","failTP":3.81373515,"successTP":3.91216701,"baseTP":3.87781694,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Mid-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bbo8520","indication":"bbo8520_nsclc","title":"BBO-8520+pembro expanded 2L+ NSCLC data + BBO-11818/10203 CRC/PDAC combo data","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BBOT/bbot-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-update-on-70niqx7sz535.html","_confidence":"high","_note":"Rolled: Sep 8 2026 PR guides expanded combo datasets mid-2027. | 2026-09-21: floors recalibrated to Ph1->Ph2 levels (was 65/75 success, 22/32 fail; oncology Ph2 LoA ~11% BIO-2021, so success floor pos x apr ~17-22%, fail ~2.4%).","failTP":3.7769068,"successTP":3.95134724,"baseTP":3.87781694,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":21,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.88}},"BCAB":{"name":"BioAtla, Inc.","subtitle":"WIND-DOWN/strategic review since Mar'26 (70% RIF, Tungsten mandate to monetize CAB assets; DELISTED to OTC Aug 31'26): ozuriftamab Ph3 OPSCC, mecbotamab AXL-ADC, BA3071, BA3182 -- $1.5M cash, 1.66M sh","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":1.66,"netCashLocal":1.5,"cashPS":0.9036,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.45,"bear":0.78,"base":1.89,"bull":9.13,"psychedelic_bull":48.05},"weightedTP":3.45,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.sarcoma.sts","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.masked.ror2","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.masked","biologic.adc.masked.axl","biologic.antibody.mab.tumor_activated_ctla4","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tumor_activated_tce","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":145},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":146},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":43,"rarePurityWtd":84,"optionality":129463,"totalTAM":18.2475,"totalWTD":0.0140839},"catalysts":[{"date":"pre-2026 (already initiated)","dateSort":"2026-03-02","asset":"ba3182","indication":"ba3182_adeno","title":"REPORTED: BA3182 (CAB-EpCAMxCAB-CD3 dual-masked TCE) Phase 1 first-in-human initiated -- Ph1 already ongoing per Mar 2 2026 PR (enrollment pacing under re-evaluation)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://bioatla.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bioatla-announces-fda-clearance-investigational-new-drug-0","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Phantom forward catalyst: BioAtla's Mar 2 2026 strategic-process PR refers to the ongoing BA3182 Phase 1 study.","failTP":2.46352867,"successTP":3.66683126,"baseTP":3.45230972,"swingPct":7,"successMove":1,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"mecbotamab","indication":"mecb_sts","title":"Mecbotamab vedotin (BA3011) Phase 2 AXL+ soft tissue sarcoma update (Orphan Drug)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.bioatla.com/cab-portfolio/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.96788088,"successTP":50.5882362,"baseTP":3.45230972,"swingPct":1379,"successMove":1365,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":2,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"by Dec 31 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ozuriftamab","indication":"oz_v_opscc","title":"Outcome of the formal strategic review (Tungsten Advisors) -- asset sale / licensing / capital raise or wind-down (board tied exec retention bonuses to process milestones by Dec 31 2026; delisted to OTC Aug 31 2026)","type":"m_and_a","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":8,"success_apr":15,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/02/3247270/0/en/bioatla-announces-formal-process-to-evaluate-strategic-options-to-monetize-assets.html","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Added Sep 2 2026 (freshness): the config's remaining catalysts describe trial execution, but since Mar 2 2026 BioAtla has been running a formal process to monetize its assets with a ~70% workforce reduction, and is contesting a Nasdaq delisting determination. Whether a buyer emerges for the CAB platform is the only binary that now matters -- which is what the scenario narratives already price. No assumption change: pos/apr are already floored near zero across scenarios.","failTP":0.794791014,"successTP":10.5587554,"baseTP":3.45230972,"swingPct":283,"successMove":206,"failMove":-77,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":-77,"daysOut":null,"materiality":56},{"date":"Q1 2027 (rolled)","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"ozuriftamab","indication":"oz_v_opscc","title":"Ozuriftamab vedotin (BA3021) Phase 3 OPSCC registrational trial enrollment initiation (SPV financing) -- SLIPPED: not started as of Sep 30 2026; timing under re-evaluation pending strategic process","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. GATC/Inversagen SPV guided enrollment start 'early 2026' with $35M second tranche expected by Q1 2026; no confirmed enrollment-initiation press release located. Rolled ~1 quarter pending confirmation of financing close + trial start. | 2026-09-30: rolled again to Q1 2027 -- Mar 2 2026 PR says Ph3 start timing is being re-evaluated pending the strategic process; no initiation announced.","_source":"https://ir.bioatla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bioatla-and-gatc-health-announce-40-million-special-purpose","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.794791014,"successTP":3.00768329,"baseTP":3.45230972,"swingPct":19,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":-22,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"H1 2027 (rolled)","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ba3071","indication":"ba3071_solid","title":"BA3071 (CAB-CTLA-4, evalstotug) Phase 2 multi-tumor mono + PD-1 combo update -- SLIPPED from 2026, no update issued; timing subject to strategic process","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":48,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.bioatla.com/cab-portfolio/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.42349891,"successTP":7.7722302,"baseTP":3.45230972,"swingPct":126,"successMove":125,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":1,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.81},"readouts":[{"a":"ba3071","ind":"ba3071_solid","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":7.33428639,"lo":0,"hi":22.9568979,"pBeatBest":0.0072,"bestDrug":"lifileucel (TIL)","bestValue":31.4}]},"BCAX":{"name":"Bicara Therapeutics","subtitle":"Single-asset ficerafusp alfa (EGFR x TGF-β trap); pivotal Ph2/3 FORTIFI-HN01 1L R/M HPV-neg HNSCC; BTD; 3yr OS 31% vs ~15% SoC; interim mid-2027 (AA path); cash $540M to 1H 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":65.47,"netCashLocal":497.3,"cashPS":7.5958,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.49,"bear":11.18,"base":14.38,"bull":18.31,"psychedelic_bull":24.82},"weightedTP":14.66,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.fusion.egfr_tgfb_trap","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fusion"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":43}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":164},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":18}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":161},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":80},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":20}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":263,"totalTAM":13.197,"totalWTD":3.6361974},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-05-30","dateSort":"2026-05-30","asset":"ficerafusp","indication":"fic_hnscc_1l","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-30: ASCO 2026 update -- HNSCC 1L HPV-neg 3yr follow-up HIT (3yr OS 31% vs ~15% SoC, safety consistent); already reflected in subtitle + base pos/apr","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://ir.bicara.com/news-releases","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Three-year data showed 31% overall survival, doubling standard-of-care outcomes, presented at ASCO 2026","_outcomeSource":"https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Bicara+Therapeutics+Reports+Promising+Three-Year+Follow-Up+Data+for+Ficerafusp+Alfa+in+Combination+with+Pembrolizumab+in+HPV-Negative+Head+and+Neck+Cancer","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":12.3011539,"successTP":16.550983,"baseTP":14.6575887,"swingPct":25,"successMove":11,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"2026-08-11","dateSort":"2026-08-11","asset":"ficerafusp","indication":"fic_hnscc_1l","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-11: FORTIFI-FLEX randomized loading/maintenance study INITIATED (ficerafusp+pembro, 1500mg QW x12wk then 2250mg Q3W; HNSCC dose-regimen optimization; data targeted by potential US AA)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":66,"success_apr":74,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BCAX/bicara-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-7rlhk4mhjutk.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/11/3342597/0/en/bicara-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-progress-and-announces-strategic-leadership-transitions-marking-next-era-of-execution-and-growth.html","failTP":12.3011539,"successTP":16.3681709,"baseTP":14.6575887,"swingPct":6,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"ficerafusp","indication":"fic_crc_raswt","title":"Phase 1b CRC RAS-WT MSS expansion initial data (mono + pembro combo)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/30/3264520/0/en/Bicara-Therapeutics-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.8099146,"successTP":15.9221731,"baseTP":14.6575887,"swingPct":15,"successMove":6,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"ficerafusp","indication":"fic_hnscc_1l","title":"FORTIFI-HN01 substantial enrollment milestone (~650 patients)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":76,"_source":"https://ir.bicara.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bicara-therapeutics-announces-first-patients-enrolled-fortifi","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.3011539,"successTP":16.4066522,"baseTP":14.6575887,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-15","asset":"ficerafusp","indication":"fic_hnscc_1l","title":"FORTIFI-HN01 pivotal Ph2/3 interim analysis (OS primary)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/BCAX/ars-bicara-therapeutics-inc-sec-filing-9e0c66a3d66b.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.86434863,"successTP":19.1009441,"baseTP":14.6575887,"swingPct":70,"successMove":30,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":39}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":15.24}},"BCRX":{"name":"BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"ORLADEYO oral kallikrein HAE: Q2'26 rev $218.3M (+34%), ORLADEYO $158.2M; FY26 ORLADEYO guide $625-645M held, TOTAL raised to $690-715M on navenibart EU license ($70M up); opex guide $420-440M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":255.5,"netCashLocal":-471.5,"cashPS":-1.8454,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.63,"bear":5.16,"base":13,"bull":19.63,"psychedelic_bull":29.4},"weightedTP":13.73,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","dermatology.genodermatosis.netherton","dermatology","dermatology.genodermatosis"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.plasma_kallikrein","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_plasma_kallikrein","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.klk5_inhibitor","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":190},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":95},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.netherton","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":197},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":99},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.netherton","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":195},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":97},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.netherton","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":23,"totalTAM":8.828,"totalWTD":7.1564325},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-29","asset":"navenibart","indication":"naven_hae","title":"RESOLVED 2026-06-29: ALPHA-ORBIT navenibart Phase 3 ENROLLMENT COMPLETE (~145 pts, largest HAE pivotal); 6- & 12-mo topline expected Q3 2027; BLA filing on track YE 2027","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.biocryst.com/news-releases/news-release-details/biocryst-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Enrollment completion (non-binary milestone) confirmed on time per 2026-06-29 update; data Q3 2027. No assumption change.","_rationale":"Q1 2026 earnings confirmed enrollment completion by end of June 2026 with approximately 145 patients","failTP":10.9944238,"successTP":16.2613846,"baseTP":13.7309334,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"orladeyo","indication":"orladeyo_hae","title":"ORLADEYO FY26 $625-645M guide (MAINTAINED at Q2'26; total company revenue guide raised to $690-715M incl. RAPIVAB + navenibart EU license)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"BCRX FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.7309334,"successTP":13.7309334,"baseTP":13.7309334,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bcx17725","indication":"bcx_neth","title":"BCX17725 Netherton Ph1 Part 4 data → pivotal 2027","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":85,"_source":"BCRX pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.3110247,"successTP":14.2812118,"baseTP":13.7309334,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q3 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"navenibart","indication":"naven_hae","title":"ALPHA-ORBIT navenibart Ph3 topline (6- & 12-month Q3M/Q6M attack-rate data, ~145 pts); BLA filing targeted YE 2027","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://ir.biocryst.com/news-releases/news-release-details/biocryst-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Base prior pos 80 / apr 85. Positive topline de-risks efficacy (pos -> 95, residual CMC/BLA risk; apr 85 -> 88 on a clean pivotal in a validated kallikrein target). Miss -> pos 10 (Q6M arm or rescue only). Prior-weighted pos ~0.8*95+0.2*10 = 78, consistent with base 80.","failTP":7.07140245,"successTP":17.0691764,"baseTP":13.7309334,"swingPct":73,"successMove":24,"failMove":-49,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":40}],"salesM2025":601,"lenses":{"comparable":13.51,"eeRel":1.9853}},"BCYC":{"name":"Bicycle Therapeutics","subtitle":"Bicycle peptide platform | Zelenectide mUC approval path rejected | Pivot to nuzefatide + radioconjugates","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":71,"netCashLocal":510.1,"cashPS":7.1845,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.17,"bear":2.47,"base":4.17,"bull":6.12,"psychedelic_bull":7.53},"weightedTP":4.19,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi","_platform.bicycle_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["peptide.drug_conjugate.bdc_nectin4","peptide","peptide.drug_conjugate","peptide.drug_conjugate.bdc_epha2","radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter.pb212_target","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter","biologic.antibody.bispecific.nectin4_cd137","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","peptide.drug_conjugate.bicycle_platform"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":87},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":38},{"area":"_platform.bicycle_discovery","purity":38}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":109},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":54},{"area":"_platform.bicycle_discovery","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":24}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":151},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":75},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":19},{"area":"_platform.bicycle_discovery","purity":11}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1799,"totalTAM":28.3802,"totalWTD":1.494243},"catalysts":[{"date":"First half 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"brc","indication":"radio","title":"REPORTED: EphA2 human imaging additional data (AACR 2026, PDAC PET/CT)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":28,"success_apr":35,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BCYC/bicycle-therapeutics-highlights-2025-accomplishments-and-strategic-hzs8xmrm03f5.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company plans additional EphA2 human imaging data in H1 2026 per strategic priorities","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Reported Apr 20 2026 at AACR Annual Meeting 2026: German Cancer Consortium first-in-human PET/CT imaging of a Ga-68-labeled EphA2 Bicycle Imaging Agent (BIA) in 7 histologically confirmed PDAC patients. Positive proof-of-targeting -- rapid tumor uptake with primarily renal excretion in 6/7 patients; EphA2 BIA PET detected multiple liver, bone, lymph-node and peritoneal metastases. Supports the EphA2 radioconjugate (BRC) strategy; non-binary conference readout.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260420953740/en/Bicycle-Therapeutics-Provides-Update-on-Nuzefatide-Pevedotin-and-EphA2-Pipeline-at-the-AACR-Annual-Meeting-2026","failTP":4.18192195,"successTP":4.19071091,"baseTP":4.1875808,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":6,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Second half 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"zelenectide","indication":"muc","title":"RESOLVED 2026-05: Duravelo-3 zelenectide NECTIN4-amplified breast -- trial discontinued","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":60,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BCYC/bicycle-therapeutics-highlights-2025-accomplishments-and-strategic-hzs8xmrm03f5.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company guidance for H2 2026 initial data from Phase 1/2 Duravelo-3 trial","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Q1'26 PR: Bicycle seeks to discontinue Ph1/2 Duravelo-3; Duravelo-2 converted to randomized Ph2 and zelenectide deprioritized for internal development. No readout will occur.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/bicycle-therapeutics-reports-recent-business-progress-and-first-quarter-2026-financial-results","failTP":4.1616524,"successTP":4.36000739,"baseTP":4.1875808,"swingPct":5,"successMove":4,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"bt7480","indication":"tica","title":"BT7480 Phase 1 combination data with nivolumab","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":30,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BCYC/bicycle-therapeutics-highlights-2025-accomplishments-and-strategic-hzs8xmrm03f5.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company confirmed H1 2026 data presentation at scientific conference","_note":"Slipped: ASCO 2026 BCYC presentations were zelenectide pevedotin (BT8009/NECTIN4), not BT7480; the BT7480+nivolumab combo readout remained a forward-looking 'H1 2026 scientific conference' plan with no confirmed presentation as of late Jun 2026. Rescheduled to H2 2026. Source: Bicycle ASCO 2026 presentation release + FY2025 results (investors.bicycletherapeutics.com).","failTP":4.18286138,"successTP":4.19310605,"baseTP":4.1875808,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zelenectide","indication":"muc","title":"Zelenectide partner-out / strategic update","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"failTP":4.16295534,"successTP":4.33179908,"baseTP":4.1875808,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":4,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.9},"readouts":[{"a":"bt7480","ind":"tica","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","endpoint":"mos_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":20.3155557,"lo":5.40799611,"hi":36.2000874,"pBeatBest":0.0839,"bestDrug":"enfortumab vedotin + pembrolizumab","bestValue":31.5},{"a":"zelenectide","ind":"muc","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","endpoint":"mos_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":18.6289056,"lo":6.85058995,"hi":33.6341283,"pBeatBest":0.04435,"bestDrug":"enfortumab vedotin + pembrolizumab","bestValue":31.5}]},"BEAM":{"name":"Beam Therapeutics","subtitle":"Base editing leader: BEAM-302 in vivo AATD pivotal cohort dosing (FDA-aligned AA path); risto-cel SCD BLA as early as YE'26; BEAM-301 GSD1a data 2026; BEAM-304 PKU IND cleared; cash 1.15B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":104.69,"netCashLocal":1051.7,"cashPS":10.0458,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.67,"bear":10.79,"base":15.5,"bull":20.52,"psychedelic_bull":25.8},"weightedTP":15.74,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","hematology","hematology.hemoglobinopathy","metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage.gsd_1a","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.base_editor.invivo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.base_editor","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.base_editor.exvivo"],"focus":[{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":82},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":64},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":41},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":32},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage.gsd_1a","purity":28},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":26},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage","purity":14},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":149},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":75},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":26},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage.gsd_1a","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":12},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":147},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":73},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":34},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":17},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":16},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":8},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage.gsd_1a","purity":3},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":175,"totalTAM":16.484,"totalWTD":5.996667},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"beam304","indication":"beam304_pku","title":"RESOLVED 2026-06-30: BEAM-304 PKU IND cleared by FDA (Jun 2026; Ph1/2 R408W initiation underway)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":23,"success_apr":30,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001745999/000119312526331522/beam-ex99_1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.8980187,"successTP":16.0156263,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":7,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"ristocel","indication":"ristocel_scd","title":"Risto-cel (BEAM-101) BLA submission target for SCD","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BEAM/beam-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-ckeucbtwp1mb.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.0881983,"successTP":18.4271464,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":66,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"beam301","indication":"beam301_gsd1a","title":"BEAM-301 GSD1a Ph1/2 initial data (company guides 2026 per Q2 2026 PR)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BEAM/beam-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-ckeucbtwp1mb.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":15.6140197,"successTP":15.9083478,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"beam302","indication":"beam302_aatd","title":"BEAM-302 AATD pivotal cohort interim (60mg, FDA-aligned AA path) -- rolled from H2 2026: first pivotal patient dosed Jul 2026, no 2026 interim guided","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BEAM/beam-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-ckeucbtwp1mb.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.4157629,"successTP":17.025295,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":16,"successMove":8,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"beam302","indication":"beam302_aatd","title":"BEAM-302 AATD pivotal topline (60mg cohort, accelerated approval data lock)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"high","failTP":14.1018058,"successTP":17.025295,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":18,"successMove":8,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q3 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"ristocel","indication":"ristocel_scd","title":"Risto-cel (BEAM-101) PDUFA decision (SCD, post-BLA YE26)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.40215,"successTP":18.6961144,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":53,"successMove":19,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"2026-2028","dateSort":"2027-11-15","asset":"beam302","indication":"","title":"Lilly cardiovascular base editing collaboration IND filing + Ph1 start (company-level: Lilly-run programmes, no BEAM asset/indication; pointer is the in vivo LNP platform lead only)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":15.7379573,"successTP":15.7379573,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"beam302","indication":"beam302_aatd","title":"BEAM-302 AATD BLA submission (post-pivotal hit, FDA AA path)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":14.0426284,"successTP":14.6673068,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-09-30","asset":"beam302","indication":"beam302_aatd","title":"BEAM-302 AATD PDUFA decision (accelerated approval pathway)","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":14.0426284,"successTP":14.6673068,"baseTP":15.7379573,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":21.49}},"BHC":{"name":"Bausch Health Companies Inc.","subtitle":"RemainCo (B+L separation still conditional) | Q2'26 rev $2,852M (+13%), adj EBITDA $1,075M (+28%), guidance RAISED | Xifaxan $664M +26% | net debt $13.65B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":373,"netCashLocal":-8892,"cashPS":-23.8391,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":14.47,"bull":41.84,"psychedelic_bull":93.39},"weightedTP":18.83,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.luminal.ibs_d","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","gastro_hepatology.liver.hepatic_encephalopathy","gastro_hepatology.liver","gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_oic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antibacterial.rifamycin","small_molecule","small_molecule.antibacterial","peptide.hormone_analog.guanylin.guanylate_cyclase","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.guanylin","small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_antagonist_peripheral","small_molecule.gpcr","formulation_modifier.topical.fixed_combo","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.topical","small_molecule.transporter.dnri","small_molecule.transporter"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":52},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":52},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":52},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":32},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":31},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.hepatic_encephalopathy","purity":25},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.ibs_d","purity":21},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":12},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_oic","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":52},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":52},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":52},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":32},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":31},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.hepatic_encephalopathy","purity":25},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.ibs_d","purity":21},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":12},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_oic","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.ibs_d","purity":84},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":59},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.hepatic_encephalopathy","purity":52},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":26},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":20},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_oic","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":29.304,"totalWTD":29.304},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-29","asset":"xifaxan","indication":"ibs_d","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-29: Q2'26 revenue $2,852M (+13% reported, +11% organic), adj EBITDA $1,075M (+28%), guidance RAISED; Xifaxan $664M (+26% YoY); net debt cut $434M to $13,653M","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bausch-health-announces-second-quarter-2026-results-raises-guidance-302838191.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Operationally the strongest print in the config's history for this name and the guidance was raised; the leverage story is improving but $13.65B of net debt and the unscheduled B+L separation remain the binding constraints. No pipeline PoS lever applies.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":18.8278552,"successTP":18.8278552,"baseTP":18.8278552,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xifaxan","indication":"ibs_d","title":"Bausch + Lomb separation completion -- CONDITIONAL and unscheduled: requires hitting targeted debt-leverage ratios plus shareholder/other approvals, and BHC is still weighing the Xifaxan generics litigation (date is a placeholder, not company guidance)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bausch-health-announces-second-quarter-2026-results-raises-guidance-302838191.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":18.8278552,"successTP":18.8278552,"baseTP":18.8278552,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027-2028","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"xifaxan","indication":"ibs_d","title":"Debt refinancing wall (2028 senior notes maturity; covenant pressure)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://everyticker.com/quote/BHC/news/bausch-health-offers-exchange-of-2028-senior-secured-notes-for-new-2032-debt","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.8278552,"successTP":18.8278552,"baseTP":18.8278552,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jan 2028","dateSort":"2028-01-15","asset":"xifaxan","indication":"ibs_d","title":"Xifaxan US LOE (Teva first generic; ~85% sales erosion within 24 months)","type":"loe","binary":false,"_source":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4862327-bausch-health-red-c-failure-leaves-blockbuster-xifaxan-without-a-successor","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.8278552,"successTP":18.8278552,"baseTP":18.8278552,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2900,"lenses":{"comparable":48.65,"eeRel":2.3684}},"BHVN":{"name":"Biohaven Ltd.","subtitle":"Kv7/opakalim OUT-LICENSED to SK Biopharm ($400M cash + royalties, HSR pending); FDA partial hold pauses new BHV-7000 enrolment; MoDE/TRAP degraders retained | cash $270.5M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":151,"netCashLocal":270.5,"cashPS":1.7914,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.5,"bear":0.67,"base":2.16,"bull":5.59,"psychedelic_bull":9.24},"weightedTP":3.24,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.focal","cns","cns.epilepsy","endocrine.thyroid.graves","endocrine","endocrine.thyroid","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","cns.neurodegeneration.spinocerebellar_ataxia","cns.neurodegeneration"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.kv7_opener","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.protein_degrader.mode_platform","small_molecule.protein_degrader","small_molecule.gpcr.mglur_prodrug","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":170},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":85},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":4},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.spinocerebellar_ataxia","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":111},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":55},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":34},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":34},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":17},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":17},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":14},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":7},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.spinocerebellar_ataxia","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":66},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.spinocerebellar_ataxia","purity":64},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":33},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":32},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":31},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":26},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":13},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":9},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":19,"optionality":986,"totalTAM":169.503,"totalWTD":15.6054668},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"bhv1300","indication":"graves","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-29: BHV-1300 (MoDE) Phase 3 pivotal in Graves' disease INITIATED on time (first patient enrolled) -- timeline de-risked","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/biohaven-advances-a-new-class-of-precision-immunology-therapies-first-mode-extracellular-protein-degrader-bhv-1300-begins-phase-3-pivotal-trial-in-graves-disease-302812720.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"First patient enrolled Jun 29 2026, on the guided mid-2026 timeline. Non-binary initiation milestone (success=fail=100); no assumption change, mild timeline de-risk only.","failTP":3.12186061,"successTP":3.56332649,"baseTP":3.23744737,"swingPct":4,"successMove":3,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"bhv7000","indication":"epilepsy","title":"FDA partial clinical hold resolution -- nonclinical metabolite package submitted; hold lift would restore BHV7000-302 enrolment","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":88,"failTP":3.08655226,"successTP":3.33101078,"baseTP":3.23744737,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"taldef","indication":"obesity","title":"Taldefgrobep alfa (myostatin/activin inhibitor) Phase 2 obesity topline (enrolled Q1 2026; topline 2H 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":82,"_source":"BHVN Q1 2026 earnings","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.06117779,"successTP":3.88771118,"baseTP":3.23744737,"swingPct":25,"successMove":20,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bhv1400","indication":"igan","title":"BHV-1400 (TRAP) pivotal study initiation in IgA nephropathy -- guidance widened from mid-2026 to 2H 2026","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BHVN/biohaven-reports-recent-business-developments-and-second-quarter-vhbb1um5mspg.html","_confidence":"high","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. FDA aligned on pivotal IgAN design in Q4 2025; company guided pivotal initiation 'by mid-year 2026' but no confirmation of first-patient-in published as of 2026-07-06 (contrast with BHV-1300 Graves' Ph3 which was confirmed initiated Jun 29 2026). Rolled ~1 quarter to Q3 2026.","failTP":2.98548054,"successTP":4.02514308,"baseTP":3.23744737,"swingPct":10,"successMove":7,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":54,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"2H 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bhv7000","indication":"epilepsy","title":"Opakalim BHV7000-303 (RISE3) focal-epilepsy pivotal topline -- study fully enrolled; date widened to 2H 2026 guidance (partial hold does not stop dosing)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001935979/000193597926000048/exhibit991may26thpressrele.htm","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company confirmed on track to receive top-line results in 2H 2026 from first pivotal study","failTP":3.03235445,"successTP":3.33253555,"baseTP":3.23744737,"swingPct":9,"successMove":3,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"troriluzole","indication":"sca","title":"Troriluzole SCA -- Type A / resubmission path decision post-CRL","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":2,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":90,"_confidence":"low","_note":"CRL Nov 2025 over RWE methodology; optionality on confirmatory trial / appeal.","failTP":2.31356506,"successTP":4.04946281,"baseTP":3.23744737,"swingPct":27,"successMove":13,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bhv7000","indication":"epilepsy","title":"SK Biopharmaceuticals Kv7/opakalim licence CLOSING -- conditional on HSR/antitrust clearance; $350M cash at close (+$50M in 2027)","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":88,"failTP":3.151895,"successTP":3.3221174,"baseTP":3.23744737,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bhv7000","indication":"epilepsy","title":"Opakalim (BHV-7000) second Phase 2/3 focal epilepsy study topline (estimated 2027 after first study readout)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":90,"_source":"BHVN pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.06596965,"successTP":3.34042791,"baseTP":3.23744737,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.91},"readouts":[{"a":"bhv7000","ind":"epilepsy","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":16.3696715,"lo":-2.26133234,"hi":39.7599561,"pBeatBest":0.0903,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33},{"a":"taldef","ind":"obesity","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":3.75955532,"lo":-2.25423092,"hi":25.3191479,"pBeatBest":0.0344,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"bhv7000","ind":"epilepsy","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":16.3201092,"lo":-2.3539252,"hi":39.9740992,"pBeatBest":0.09095,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33}]},"BI":{"name":"Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH (private; family-owned since 1885)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- Boehringer Ingelheim (world's largest privately-held pharma; Wiesinger family) | FY24 ~EUR 26B Human + Animal Health","currency":"EUR","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","nephrology.ckd.progression","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.reversal","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.gpp","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.sglt2","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.kinase.tki_anti_fibrotic","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.gpcr.lama_anticholinergic","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.enzyme.thrombin","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.fragment.fab_neutralizing","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fragment","small_molecule.enzyme.dpp4_inhibitor","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il36r","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf","small_molecule.kinase.her2_mutant_tki","small_molecule.enzyme.pde4b_inhibitor","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_glucagon_dual","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":52},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":48},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":26},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":24},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.progression","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":9},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":8},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":8},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.reversal","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.gpp","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":55},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":44},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":22},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.progression","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":11},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":8},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.gpp","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.reversal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":55},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":40},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":29},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":28},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":12},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":11},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":8},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.progression","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.gpp","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.reversal","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":5,"totalTAM":603.0535,"totalWTD":575.1197},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":13210,"readouts":[{"a":"survodutide","ind":"obesity","ds":"2026-04-28","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":16.6462181,"lo":1.01208102,"hi":28.6482511,"pBeatBest":0.1175,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"survodutide","ind":"mash","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":26.977517,"lo":5.51969491,"hi":52.4132108,"pBeatBest":0.0922,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45},{"a":"survodutide","ind":"obesity","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":16.7212156,"lo":1.0470189,"hi":28.6183024,"pBeatBest":0.11105,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"BIIB":{"name":"Biogen Inc.","subtitle":"Total Revenue $9.9B 2025 | MS heritage decline (Tysabri biosim, Tecfidera LOE) offset by Leqembi (Eisai partner; AD anti-amyloid) + Skyclarys (Friedreich's) + Spinraza + Apellis acq","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":146,"netCashLocal":-7070.1,"cashPS":-48.4253,"tps":{"mega_bear":67.17,"bear":123.09,"base":205.54,"bull":334.33,"psychedelic_bull":623.09},"weightedTP":239.33,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.neurodegeneration.als","_established_products.biib_heritage","_established_products","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cle","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","immunology.transplant.solid_organ","immunology.transplant","ophthalmology.retina.ga","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology","hematology.hemolytic","nephrology.glomerular.c3g"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_a4_integrin","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.nrf2_activator","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.ifn_beta","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","small_molecule.ion_channel.potassium_blocker","small_molecule.ion_channel","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.smn2_splice_modulator","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_amyloid","small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_a_modulator","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.sod1_targeting","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_bdca2","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd38","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.sod1_targeting_next_gen","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.tau_targeting","peptide.protein_binder.complement_c3","peptide","peptide.protein_binder","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.c3_silencer","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":82},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":41},{"area":"_established_products.biib_heritage","purity":26},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":19},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":10},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":9},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cle","purity":6},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.c3g","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":92},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":46},{"area":"_established_products.biib_heritage","purity":30},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":14},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":7},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":6},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cle","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.c3g","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":98},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":49},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":21},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":20},{"area":"_established_products.biib_heritage","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":12},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":11},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":9},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.c3g","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cle","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":18,"rarePurityWtd":16,"optionality":12,"totalTAM":227.458,"totalWTD":202.48905},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-01-31","asset":"litifilimab","indication":"cle","title":"Litifilimab AMETHYST Ph2/3 cutaneous lupus topline (NCT05531565, ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, primary completion 2026-10-20)","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":78,"failTP":238.495516,"successTP":239.883556,"baseTP":239.330604,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-28","asset":"litifilimab","indication":"sle","title":"Litifilimab TOPAZ-1/2 SLE Ph3 topline -- date set from clinicaltrials.gov primary completion (NCT04961567 2026-09-27, NCT04895241 2026-09-30); topline follows database lock, so Q4'26-Q1'27 rather than Sep'26","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":78,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Anti-BDCA2 first-in-class for pDC depletion in lupus.","failTP":238.283345,"successTP":240.024019,"baseTP":239.330604,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"salanersen","indication":"sod1_als","title":"Salanersen next-gen SOD1-ASO Ph3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":84,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Improved potency vs Qalsody.","failTP":232.130497,"successTP":244.411853,"baseTP":239.330604,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":9064,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":35,"ceilPct":35,"position":"fast_follower","asset":"salanersen","ind":"sod1_als","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","somB":0.5,"tamB":1.4}},"lenses":{"comparable":246.13,"eeRel":1.4828,"peRel":0.4425},"readouts":[{"a":"litifilimab","ind":"sle","ds":"2027-02-28","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":9.25168551,"lo":-15,"hi":48.9333217,"pBeatBest":0.04315,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"salanersen","ind":"sod1_als","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","endpoint":"alsfrs_r_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.13219387,"lo":-1.1563421,"hi":3.85315035,"pBeatBest":0.17315,"bestDrug":"edaravone","bestValue":2.49}]},"BIOA":{"name":"BioAge Labs","subtitle":"NLRP3 platform post-Azelaprag | BGE-102 Ph1 86% hsCRP cut; Ph2a CV risk RECRUITING (NCT07656727, PC Nov 30'26) | Novo ZEUS IL-6 MACE miss Jul'26 undercuts the hsCRP surrogate | $381M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":45.78,"netCashLocal":381.3,"cashPS":8.329,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.86,"bear":6.2,"base":8.33,"bull":12.11,"psychedelic_bull":19.51},"weightedTP":9.23,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","ophthalmology.retina.dme","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.nlrp3_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.gpcr.apelin_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":194},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":97},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":6},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":190},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":95},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":10},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":147},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":74},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":53},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":26}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1168,"totalTAM":297.375,"totalWTD":23.4590625},"catalysts":[{"date":"Dec 4 2025 (precise)","dateSort":"2025-12-04","asset":"bge102","indication":"cv_inflammation","title":"REPORTED 2025-12-04: BGE-102 Phase 1 SAD/MAD POSITIVE interim data — brain-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor; 60mg+ doses well tolerated, exceeded target IC90 in periphery + brain","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"BIOA PR Dec 4 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-04 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":8.79911463,"successTP":17.0293599,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":62,"successMove":59,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Jan 12 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-01-12","asset":"bge102","indication":"cv_inflammation","title":"REPORTED 2026-01-12: BGE-102 ADDITIONAL Phase 1 positive interim — potential best-in-class hsCRP reduction in elevated CV risk participants","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"BIOA PR Jan 12 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-01-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":8.79911463,"successTP":17.0293599,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":62,"successMove":59,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Jan 20 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-01-20","asset":"bge102","indication":"dme","title":"REPORTED 2026-01-20: BGE-102 INDICATION EXPANSION announced — DME Phase 1b/2a proof-of-concept trial planned mid-2026 (oral NLRP3 inhibitor in retinal disease)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"BIOA PR Jan 20 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-01-20 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":8.98819722,"successTP":13.6563532,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":20,"successMove":19,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Apr 21 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-21","asset":"bge102","indication":"cv_inflammation","title":"REPORTED 2026-04-21: BGE-102 Phase 1 SAD/MAD full database-lock + unblinding (post-interim 86% hsCRP positive); supports Ph2 + Ph1b/2a initiation","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/health-care/26/04/51943738/bioage-labs-stock-gains-after-positive-early-data-and-pipeline-plans","_addedAt":"2026-04-23T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guided full Ph1 SAD/MAD readout for H1 2026","_outcome":"completed","_note":"OCCURRED: full Phase 1 SAD/MAD data reported Apr 21 2026 (positive) -- BIC-potential hsCRP reduction (86% at 120mg Day14), 90-98% IL-1b suppression, CSF IC90 exceeded at 60mg+, clean safety. Soft milestone; nudged base pos +3 (60->63).","_noteSource":"https://ir.bioagelabs.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bioage-reports-positive-phase-1-data-bge-102-novel-oral-nlrp3","failTP":8.79911463,"successTP":15.446875,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":50,"successMove":47,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Apr 24 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-04-24","asset":"bge102","indication":"cv_inflammation","title":"REPORTED 2026-04-24: BGE-102 Phase 1 TOPLINE: 86% hsCRP reduction at 120mg (Day 14); 93% achieved hsCRP <2mg/L; 90-98% IL-1β suppression; 70-78% IL-6 reduction; AEs mild/mod","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"BIOA PR Apr 24 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-04-24 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":8.79911463,"successTP":17.0293599,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":62,"successMove":59,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"May 8 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-05-08","asset":"bge102","indication":"cv_inflammation","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-08: BIOA Q1 2026 REPORTED + $132.3M upsized follow-on -- funds Ph2 cardiovascular + Ph1b/2a DME through key milestones","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"BIOA PR May 8 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-08 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":8.79911463,"successTP":17.0293599,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":45,"successMove":42,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-11","asset":"bge102","indication":"cv_inflammation","title":"REPORTED (completed): BGE-102 Phase 2a INITIATED Jun 11 2026 in obesity + cardiovascular risk factors (NCT07656727, status RECRUITING) -- on the company's H1 2026 guidance; ~100 patients randomised 1:1 to BGE-102 monotherapy vs placebo for 12 weeks, primary endpoint percent change in hsCRP, with inflammatory/metabolic biomarkers + liver MRI","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":50,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.bioagelabs.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-23T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guided Ph2a initiation H1 2026","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; BGE-102 Ph2a obesity+elevated hsCRP (~100 pts, 12wk, primary hsCRP % change) guided to initiate H1 2026 with data H2 2026, but no explicit trial-initiation PR confirmed. Date rolled ~1Q.","_outcome":"completed","_resolvedDate":"2026-07-31","_outcomeSource":"freshness review 2026-07-31 (title already marked resolved; _outcome backfilled)","failTP":7.84106431,"successTP":9.93586927,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":7,"successMove":2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Sep 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"bge102","indication":"dme","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-08: first participant dosed in QUELL-DME, Ph1b/2a of BGE-102 in diabetic macular edema; data mid-2027","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":45,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357592/0/en/bioage-labs-announces-first-participant-dosed-in-quell-dme-a-phase-2-trial-of-bge-102-a-novel-oral-nlrp3-inhibitor-in-diabetic-macular-edema.html","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.bioagelabs.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-23T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company guided Ph1b/2a DME initiation mid-2026","_note":"BGE-102 QUELL-DME (Ph1b/2a, DME) still guided 'begin mid-2026' per Q2'26 report (Aug 6); not yet dosing / not on clinicaltrials.gov as of Aug 12; realistic init mid-to-late 2026. Rolled to H2'26.","_outcome":"success","failTP":8.34804025,"successTP":9.53268279,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":27,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bge102","indication":"cv_inflammation","title":"BGE-102 Phase 2a topline -- primary endpoint percent change in hsCRP in obesity (NCT07656727, primary completion Nov 30 2026; topline realistically Dec'26-Feb'27). Success values cut post-ZEUS: a clean hsCRP result now de-risks far less than it would have pre-Jul 31 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":55,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.bioagelabs.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-23T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company guided Ph2a results by year-end 2026","failTP":7.6137459,"successTP":10.14755,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":28,"successMove":10,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"apj","indication":"obesity","title":"APJ agonist IND filing (lead candidate nomination)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":3,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":18,"success_apr":40,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.bioagelabs.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-23T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company guided APJ IND by YE 2026","failTP":8.9924272,"successTP":9.47201816,"baseTP":9.23268391,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":2,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.35},"readouts":[{"a":"bge102","ind":"cv_inflammation","ds":"2025-12-04","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1464005,"lo":2.78669805,"hi":29.3933086,"pBeatBest":0.13025,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"bge102","ind":"cv_inflammation","ds":"2026-01-12","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1682251,"lo":2.80409752,"hi":29.5064091,"pBeatBest":0.1327,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"bge102","ind":"cv_inflammation","ds":"2026-04-24","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.140363,"lo":2.7004255,"hi":29.6006543,"pBeatBest":0.1303,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"bge102","ind":"cv_inflammation","ds":"2026-04-21","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1481947,"lo":2.89655129,"hi":29.4765078,"pBeatBest":0.13315,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"bge102","ind":"cv_inflammation","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":12.7716121,"lo":-1.35745067,"hi":27.7620557,"pBeatBest":0.08025,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"BIOARCTIC":{"name":"BioArctic AB","subtitle":"Swedish CNS -- Leqembi Eisai royalty (FY25 ~SEK 508M; IQLIK SC maintenance Sep'25 + SC initiation dose Jul'26) + Novartis BrainTransporter deal Aug'25 + exidavnemab Ph2 MSA/PD + BAN1503","currency":"SEK","country":"SE","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":88,"netCashLocal":1800,"cashPS":20.4545,"tps":{"mega_bear":56.18,"bear":112.76,"base":212.6,"bull":326.88,"psychedelic_bull":457.29},"weightedTP":219.9,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.msa","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","_platform","_platform.delivery"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.amyloid_beta_protofibril","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.alpha_synuclein","biologic.antibody.mab.pyroglutamate_amyloid","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bbb_transporter","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":65},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.msa","purity":34},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":146},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":30},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.msa","purity":24},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.msa","purity":114},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":53},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":33},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":17,"rarePurityWtd":12,"optionality":154,"totalTAM":23.81,"totalWTD":9.3840768},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-03-15","dateSort":"2025-03-15","asset":"exidavnemab","indication":"msa","title":"REPORTED 2025-03: FDA granted ORPHAN DRUG DESIGNATION to exidavnemab (BAN0805) for multiple system atrophy -- re-confirmed in BioArctic's Q2 2026 interim report","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"BioArctic + NeurologyLive","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Designation granted March 2025 and restated in the Apr-Jun 2026 interim report. Overdue only because the title lacked the REPORTED prefix; no assumption change -- an orphan designation was already reflected in the MSA legs.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":140.467705,"successTP":171.339949,"baseTP":219.904695,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-11,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"2025-08-26","dateSort":"2025-08-26","asset":"ban_bbb","indication":"bbb_platform","title":"REPORTED 2025-08: Novartis BrainTransporter option/collaboration/licence agreement SIGNED -- $30M upfront to BioArctic plus milestones and royalties on Novartis programmes using the BBB transporter platform","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"BioArctic + Novartis PR Aug 26 2025; BioWorld; PharmExec","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Deal signed August 2025 (already reflected in the company subtitle). Overdue only because the title lacked the REPORTED prefix; no assumption change -- the platform value sits in val.plat, not in a pos/apr leg.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":219.904695,"successTP":219.904695,"baseTP":219.904695,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2025-09-15","dateSort":"2025-09-15","asset":"lecanemab_royalty","indication":"leqembi_ad","title":"REPORTED 2025-09-15: Leqembi subcutaneous (IQLIK) FDA approved Sep 2025 -- monthly maintenance subQ post-IV induction; key adherence + access driver for global ramp","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"Eisai PR Sep 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-09-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":96.2614695,"successTP":146.006198,"baseTP":219.904695,"swingPct":11,"successMove":-17,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"2026-02-15","dateSort":"2026-02-15","asset":"lecanemab_royalty","indication":"leqembi_ad","title":"REPORTED 2026-02-15: Q4 2025 Leqembi sales JPY 20.7B -- BioArctic Q4 royalty SEK 127M (+31% YoY, +50% cc); FY25 royalty ~SEK 508M","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"BioArctic + Eisai Q4 PR Feb 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-02-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":96.2614695,"successTP":146.006198,"baseTP":219.904695,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-10,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"2026-07-13","dateSort":"2026-07-13","asset":"lecanemab_royalty","indication":"leqembi_ad","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-13: LEQEMBI IQLIK (lecanemab-irmb) SC 500mg once-weekly approved by FDA as INITIATION/starting dose for early AD (two 250mg autoinjections; skips IV induction entirely) -- adherence/access driver for royalty ramp; US availability late Aug 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"Biogen IR + Eisai + BioArctic PR 2026-07-13","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved SC initiation/starting dose 2026-07-13 (distinct from Sep 2025 maintenance SC approval); label expansion on already-approved lecanemab, no PoS change.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":96.2614695,"successTP":146.006198,"baseTP":219.904695,"swingPct":11,"successMove":-17,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"2026-08-26","dateSort":"2026-08-26","asset":"lecanemab_royalty","indication":"leqembi_ad","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-26: BioArctic Q2 2026 interim report -- Leqembi Q2 WW sales JPY 29.3B, BioArctic royalty SEK 179.4M (+27% y/y, +12% q/q); recurring revenue approaching SEK 200M/quarter; Eisai FY2026 (Apr'26-Mar'27) Leqembi guidance JPY 143.5B","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"BioArctic/Eisai Q2 CY2026 PR + FY2026 guidance (Aug 2026)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Interim report published 2026-08-26. Royalty run-rate and Eisai's raised FY26 guidance confirm the ramp the base case assumes; no assumption change. NOTE: this config carries _legacyFxConvention with leqembi_ad market.salesM = 48 while the FY25 royalty was SEK 508M -- a units mismatch that is the likely cause of the weighted TP sitting ~8x below the live SEK price. FLAGGED for manual recalibration, not auto-edited.","failTP":96.2614695,"successTP":146.006198,"baseTP":219.904695,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-10,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"exidavnemab","indication":"msa","title":"Exidavnemab Phase 2 MSA enrollment progress (Poland/Spain expanded May 2025; FDA orphan-tracked)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"BioArctic pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":140.467705,"successTP":171.339949,"baseTP":219.904695,"swingPct":14,"successMove":-22,"failMove":-36,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-30,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"exidavnemab","indication":"msa","title":"Exidavnemab Phase 2b initiation in MSA and Parkinson's disease dementia -- company guidance 1H 2027, following the positive Phase 2a safety review reported in the Q2 2026 interim report","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bioarctic-interim-report-for-the-period-april--june-2026-302860305.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":140.467705,"successTP":171.339949,"baseTP":219.904695,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":48,"lenses":{"comparable":190.34,"peRel":0.1177}},"BIOCON":{"name":"Biocon Ltd.","subtitle":"Indian biosimilars + insulin | Q1FY27 rev INR 4,336cr (+10%), biosimilars +16% at 25% EBITDA margin | YESAFILI US LAUNCH Aug 3'26, first interchangeable Eylea biosim","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":1780,"netCashLocal":-117600,"cashPS":-66.0674,"tps":{"mega_bear":195.84,"bear":358.65,"base":556.85,"bull":877.75,"psychedelic_bull":1491.24},"weightedTP":574.88,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","oncology.supportive_care","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.biocon_biocon_pharma_generics_other","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.insulin_long_acting","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_her2","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_vegf","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.gcsf","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23p40","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.insulin_mixed","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":104},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":52},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":9},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":9},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":4},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.biocon_biocon_pharma_generics_other","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":105},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":53},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":9},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":9},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":4},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.biocon_biocon_pharma_generics_other","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":50},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.biocon_biocon_pharma_generics_other","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":454.861,"totalWTD":447.5995},"catalysts":[{"date":"Feb 14, 2025","dateSort":"2025-02-14","asset":"yesintek","indication":"psoriasis_ibd","title":"REPORTED: Yesintek (ustekinumab) US share ramp + EU launch","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Biocon FY25 IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Yesintek (ustekinumab biosimilar) authorized by EMA on 14 Feb 2025, expanding Biocon's EU immunology footprint in psoriasis/IBD.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":574.880899,"successTP":574.880899,"baseTP":574.880899,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-24","asset":"yesintek","indication":"psoriasis_ibd","title":"REPORTED 2026-07: Q1FY27 -- revenue INR 4,336 cr (+10%), biosimilars INR 2,855 cr (+16%) at a 25% EBITDA margin, PAT INR 141 cr vs 31 cr; Bosaya + Aukelso (denosumab) and generic liraglutide launched in the US; Health Canada NOC for the Yesintek autoinjector pen","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.biocon.com/docs/Q1FY27_Earnings_PR.pdf","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Biosimilars segment compounding at +16% with margin expansion and a 4.5x PAT increase; several new North America launches broaden the base. All commercial -- no PoS lever.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":574.880899,"successTP":574.880899,"baseTP":574.880899,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"yesafili","indication":"nvamd_dme_yesafili","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-03: YESAFILI (aflibercept-jbvf) LAUNCHED IN THE US -- first interchangeable biosimilar to Eylea 2mg, post-Regeneron settlement","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.biocon.com/docs/Q1FY27_Earnings_PR.pdf","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Launch executed on the settlement-permitted date into a ~$5.9B US aflibercept market. Asset is already at pos/apr 100; salesM stays at 10 until a reported quarter of US revenue exists.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":574.880899,"successTP":574.880899,"baseTP":574.880899,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1464,"lenses":{"comparable":277.47,"eeRel":0.6106,"peRel":0.2707}},"BLAU3":{"name":"Blau Farmaceutica S.A.","subtitle":"Brazilian biosimilars + specialty biologicals | FY25 BRL 1.76B revenue (+5% YoY), net income up sharply (P/E ~9) | Q3 2025 net income +52%; Prothya divestment EUR 52M to cut net debt | Oncology +","currency":"BRL","country":"BR","region":"AMERICAS.LATAM","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":231,"netCashLocal":130,"cashPS":0.5628,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.41,"bear":10.56,"base":19.13,"bull":36.17,"psychedelic_bull":75.89},"weightedTP":22.98,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.latam_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.brazil_biosimilars","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-12","asset":"blau_biosimilar_biological","indication":"blau_div","title":"Blau Farmaceutica Q3 2026 results (Q2 rev +5%, missed consensus; margins +)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Blau IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":22.978355,"successTP":22.978355,"baseTP":22.978355,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":320,"lenses":{"comparable":30.61,"peRel":1.0641}},"BLSM":{"name":"BlossomHill Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Small-molecule oncology (Aug'26 IPO upsized $168.3M) | BH-30643 OMNI-EGFR: 45% ORR / 88% DCR in C797S post-TKI (WCLC Sep'26), FDA EoP1 Q4'26 | BH-30236 CLK Ph1 AML | ~$239M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":30.64,"netCashLocal":239,"cashPS":7.8003,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.85,"bear":8.96,"base":13.06,"bull":20.22,"psychedelic_bull":28.1},"weightedTP":12.99,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","_platform.kras_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.egfr_pan_mutant","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.clk_splicing","small_molecule.kinase.kras_pan"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":11},{"area":"_platform.kras_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":5},{"area":"_platform.kras_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":9},{"area":"_platform.kras_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":241,"totalTAM":19.491,"totalWTD":5.723184},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"bh30643","indication":"bh30643_egfr","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-15 (WCLC, Seoul): BH-30643 SOLARA Ph1/2 update -- 45% ORR, 88% DCR in EGFR C797S+ NSCLC after prior EGFR TKI, 63% still on treatment at ~7mo median follow-up (response rate established; DURABILITY still reads out 2027)","type":"conference_data","fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":52,"success_apr":60,"failTP":8.40007742,"successTP":17.2622975,"baseTP":12.9888348,"swingPct":58,"successMove":28,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":41},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bh30643","indication":"bh30643_egfr","title":"BH-30643 FDA End-of-Phase-1 meeting -- align on accelerated-approval path in C797S-positive EGFR NSCLC","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"BlossomHill 424B4 prospectus (Aug 2026)","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.44281159,"successTP":7.29525425,"baseTP":12.9888348,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-22,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-24,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"bh30643","indication":"bh30643_egfr","title":"BH-30643 first patient dosed in pivotal Phase 2 (C797S EGFR NSCLC)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"BlossomHill 424B4","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.44281159,"successTP":7.29525425,"baseTP":12.9888348,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-44,"failMove":-50,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":-47,"daysOut":null,"materiality":48},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"bh501284","indication":"bh501284_disc","title":"BH-501284 pan-KRAS IND submission","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"BlossomHill 424B4","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.9888348,"successTP":12.9888348,"baseTP":12.9888348,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":7,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bh30643","indication":"bh30643_egfr","title":"BH-30643 additional Phase 1 data -- durability of response in C797S population (KEY VALUE DRIVER)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":72,"_source":"BlossomHill 424B4","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.45117624,"successTP":18.5215914,"baseTP":12.9888348,"swingPct":60,"successMove":30,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bh30236","indication":"bh30236_aml","title":"BH-30236 updated Phase 1 safety + efficacy (monotherapy + venetoclax combo) in R/R AML / HR-MDS","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":58,"_source":"BlossomHill 424B4","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.1557001,"successTP":13.7117154,"baseTP":12.9888348,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"bh30643","indication":"bh30643_egfr","title":"BH-30643 initial Phase 1 data -- chemotherapy combination cohort","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_source":"BlossomHill 424B4","_confidence":"low","failTP":6.44281159,"successTP":7.29525425,"baseTP":12.9888348,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-31,"failMove":-35,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":-33,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":12.99},"readouts":[{"a":"bh30643","ind":"bh30643_egfr","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":18.9351441,"lo":5.34550201,"hi":33.3640371,"pBeatBest":0.18935,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5},{"a":"bh30643","ind":"bh30643_egfr","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":19.2507151,"lo":4.63452326,"hi":34.1926746,"pBeatBest":0.20595,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5},{"a":"bh30643","ind":"bh30643_egfr","ds":"2027-10-31","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":19.1867811,"lo":4.42103014,"hi":34.0791809,"pBeatBest":0.20445,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5},{"a":"bh30643","ind":"bh30643_egfr","ds":"2026-09-15","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":14.5878557,"lo":3.92408109,"hi":31.8825905,"pBeatBest":0.1242,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5}]},"BLTE":{"name":"Belite Bio","subtitle":"Tinlarebant oral RBP4 antagonist: Ph3 DRAGON STGD1 POSITIVE Mar'26; NDA under PRIORITY REVIEW, PDUFA Feb 12'27; DRAGON II (n=73) + GA PHOENIX Ph3 (n=530) fully enrolled; cash ~$780M","currency":"USD","country":"SG","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":40.27,"netCashLocal":780,"cashPS":19.3693,"tps":{"mega_bear":28.08,"bear":31.81,"base":38.66,"bull":43.38,"psychedelic_bull":47.08},"weightedTP":37.87,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.ga"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.rbp4","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":117},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":83}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":116},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":84}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":173},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":27}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":53,"totalTAM":19.065,"totalWTD":12.43224},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 12 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-06-12","asset":"tinlarebant","indication":"tinlarebant_stgd1","title":"RESOLVED 2026-06-12: Tinlarebant STGD1 rolling NDA submission COMPLETE (under BTD; 60-day filing review, then PDUFA assignment)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/13/3311366/0/en/Belite-Bio-Completes-Rolling-Submission-of-New-Drug-Application-to-U-S-Food-and-Drug-Administration-for-Tinlarebant-for-the-Treatment-of-Stargardt-Disease-Type-1.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Belite Bio COMPLETED the rolling NDA submission for tinlarebant (LBS-008) in Stargardt disease type 1 on Jun 12 2026 (announced Jun 13 2026), under Breakthrough Therapy Designation. Application now enters the FDA 60-day filing review; PDUFA target date assigned if accepted. Confirms base-case NDA milestone.","failTP":31.3431082,"successTP":40.8686849,"baseTP":37.8724515,"swingPct":13,"successMove":4,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"August 11, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-11","asset":"tinlarebant","indication":"tinlarebant_stgd1","title":"REPORTED: STGD1 NDA ACCEPTED with PRIORITY REVIEW (Aug 11 2026) -- PDUFA target action date Feb 12 2027, 6-month review","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_note":"As of 2026-07-27 no PDUFA date has been assigned -- the NDA is still inside the FDA's 60-day filing review that began with the Jun 12 2026 completed rolling submission under BTD. Refuse-to-file would be the bear signal; acceptance with a PDUFA date confirms the base case. Separately, Belite presented additional POSITIVE secondary-endpoint data from the Ph3 DRAGON trial as an ASRS 2026 oral presentation (announced Jul 20 2026) -- supportive of the filing package; no assumption change taken on conference color alone.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/20/3329667/0/en/Belite-Bio-Announces-Oral-Presentation-at-the-ASRS-Annual-Meeting-Featuring-Additional-Positive-Secondary-Endpoint-Data-from-the-Phase-3-Trial-of-Tinlarebant-in-Stargardt-Disease-T.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA accepted the tinlarebant NDA for Stargardt disease type 1 and granted Priority Review, setting a PDUFA target action date of Feb 12 2027 (6-month rather than standard 10-month review). Filing based on Ph3 DRAGON: statistically significant 35.7% reduction in growth rate of atrophic retinal lesions (DDAF by FAF) vs placebo. Base/bull/psych stgd1 assumptions were already at the catalyst's declared success (pos 95 / apr 96) and were left unchanged; the move is in the down-scenarios, whose 'CRL / filing friction' legs are now partly retired -- refusal-to-file risk is gone, approval risk at the Feb 2027 PDUFA remains. mega_bear pos 65->80 apr 75->85; bear pos 75->88 apr 78->90. Source: Belite Bio GlobeNewswire PR Aug 11 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":31.0889543,"successTP":40.8885129,"baseTP":37.8724515,"swingPct":13,"successMove":4,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"February 12, 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-12","asset":"tinlarebant","indication":"tinlarebant_stgd1","title":"Tinlarebant STGD1 FDA PDUFA action date (Priority Review) -- first approved therapy for Stargardt if positive","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":99,"_note":"Priority Review granted Aug 11 2026; 6-month clock from the Jun 12 2026 rolling-NDA completion. No approved therapy exists for STGD1.","failTP":27.5307998,"successTP":42.1165379,"baseTP":37.8724515,"swingPct":19,"successMove":6,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":30.73}},"BMRN":{"name":"BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.","subtitle":"Rare disease | Q2'26 rev $990M (+20%) incl Amicus GALAFOLD $106M; FY26 outlook LIFTED | VOXZOGO past $1B, sNDA accepted PDUFA Feb 28'27 | BMN 333 data 2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":191,"netCashLocal":-3587,"cashPS":-18.7801,"tps":{"mega_bear":12.32,"bear":43.2,"base":94.67,"bull":152.01,"psychedelic_bull":202.12},"weightedTP":99.97,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iva","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_vi","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_i","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.cln2","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology","hematology.hemostasis"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.cnp_analog","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.galns","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.arsb","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.idua","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.pegylated_pal","small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone.pharmacological_alpha_gal_a","small_molecule","small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.cipaglucosidase_alfa","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement.bh4_sapropterin","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.tpp1","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav5_fviii","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","peptide.hormone_analog.cnp_analog_long_acting"],"focus":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":67},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":48},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":36},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":33},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":25},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":24},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":18},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":18},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":15},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iva","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_i","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_vi","purity":3},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.cln2","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":69},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":49},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":34},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":30},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":26},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":25},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":19},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":15},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":15},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iva","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_i","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_vi","purity":4},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.cln2","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":56},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":52},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iva","purity":36},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":29},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":26},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":24},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_vi","purity":21},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":15},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_i","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.cln2","purity":9},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":3,"totalTAM":44.1325,"totalWTD":42.79766},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-02-23","dateSort":"2026-02-23","asset":"roctavian","indication":"hemophilia_a","title":"REPORTED: Roctavian VOLUNTARILY WITHDRAWN from market Feb 23 2026 (ceased end-May 2026 after failed divestiture; $240M restructuring charge, $36M FY25 sales) -- discontinued; forward revenue zeroed","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.biomarin.com/news","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"BioMarin voluntarily withdrew Roctavian from market Feb 23, 2026 after failed divestiture efforts; $240M restructuring charges; commercial flop","_outcomeSource":"https://www.biomarin.com/news/company-statements/biomarin-voluntarily-withdraws-roctavian-from-the-market/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":99.9661408,"successTP":99.9661408,"baseTP":99.9661408,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-15","asset":"voxzogo","indication":"achondroplasia","title":"REPORTED 2026-07: FDA ACCEPTED the VOXZOGO sNDA for full approval in children with achondroplasia -- PDUFA target action date Feb 28 2027; separate hypochondroplasia sNDA submitted","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/biomarin-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-and-operating-results-302845167.html","_sourceUrl":"https://www.biomarin.com/news/press-releases/biomarin-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-and-operating-results/","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"sNDA submitted April 2026 for full approval; FDA acceptance notification expected Q3 2026 per company guidance","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Filing acceptance on a commercial product already at pos/apr 100 -- the value is in the Feb 2027 PDUFA converting accelerated to full approval and in the hypochondroplasia expansion, both now carried as forward catalysts.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":99.9661408,"successTP":99.9661408,"baseTP":99.9661408,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-04","asset":"voxzogo","indication":"achondroplasia","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-04: Q2'26 revenue $990M (+20%) incl GALAFOLD $106M and POMBILITI+OPFOLDA $30M part-quarter from Amicus; FY26 outlook lifted; VOXZOGO guided past $1B annual sales","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/biomarin-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-and-operating-results-302845167.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Revenue beat plus a raised outlook; the Amicus franchises are contributing immediately. Commercial assets already at pos/apr 100 -- the missing Amicus asset entries and the stale commercialRevM ladder are flagged for the user rather than auto-scaffolded.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":99.9661408,"successTP":99.9661408,"baseTP":99.9661408,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"voxzogo","indication":"achondroplasia","title":"Voxzogo infant/toddler (ages 0+) global label expansion + revenue inflection","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.biomarin.com/news","_confidence":"high","failTP":99.9661408,"successTP":99.9661408,"baseTP":99.9661408,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Feb 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-28","asset":"voxzogo","indication":"achondroplasia","title":"VOXZOGO PDUFA -- FDA action date Feb 28 2027 on the sNDA for full approval in children with achondroplasia","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/biomarin-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-and-operating-results-302845167.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":99.9661408,"successTP":99.9661408,"baseTP":99.9661408,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bmn333","indication":"achondroplasia_lai","title":"BMN 333 long-acting CNP Ph2/3 data update -- SLIPPED from Q3'26 to 2027 (study enrolling; Ph1 supported weekly dosing)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/biomarin-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-and-operating-results-302845167.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":94.4848527,"successTP":97.7246351,"baseTP":99.9661408,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":2910,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":78,"ceilPct":65,"position":"commercial_incumbent","asset":"naglazyme","ind":"mps_vi","area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_vi","somB":0.6,"tamB":0.8}},"lenses":{"comparable":155.66,"eeRel":1.0243,"peRel":0.3816}},"BMY":{"name":"Bristol Myers Squibb","subtitle":"Revenues $48.2B 2025 | Zenbexus (iberdomide) 1st CELMoD approved Aug'26 | arlo-cel GPRC5D CAR-T registrational Ph2 HIT Sep'26 | Cobenfy/Camzyos growth | Eliquis LOE 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2030,"netCashLocal":-33986,"cashPS":-16.7419,"tps":{"mega_bear":13.51,"bear":24.4,"base":43.79,"bull":71.54,"psychedelic_bull":108.12},"weightedTP":49.52,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.gi","oncology.myeloid.mds","oncology.myeloid","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","oncology.tissue_agnostic","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology.leukemia.cml","oncology.leukemia","oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.tnbc","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.factor_xa","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ctla4","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_lag3","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.activin_iib_inhibitor","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_cd19","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor.cardiac_myosin","small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor","small_molecule.kinase.tyk2","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.kras_g12c","small_molecule.kinase.ros1","small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_m1_m4","small_molecule.gpcr","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_bcma","small_molecule.gpcr.s1p_modulator","small_molecule.protein_degrader.cereblon_imid","small_molecule.protein_degrader","small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.paclitaxel_albumin","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.enzyme.factor_xia","small_molecule.protein_degrader.cereblon_glue","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_gprc5d","biologic.antibody.bispecific.gprc5d_cd3"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":37},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":4},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":4},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ntrk_fusion","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":27,"rarePurityWtd":27,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":291.5251,"totalWTD":269.023243},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026 (ESMO GI)","dateSort":"2026-07-07","asset":"krazati","indication":"krazati_kras","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07 (MISS): KRYSTAL-10 confirmatory Ph3 of Krazati + cetuximab in 2L KRAS G12C CRC FAILED -- mPFS 7.5mo vs 8.1mo chemo, mOS 21.6mo vs 21.7mo; CRC accelerated approval at risk of withdrawal","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_note":"Presented at ESMO GI Jul 2026; BMS confirmed the confirmatory trial in 2L KRAS G12C-mutant CRC missed its primary endpoint -- the exact condition FDA attached to the Jun 2024 accelerated approval of adagrasib + cetuximab in previously-treated KRAS G12C mCRC. The combo lost to chemotherapy on both PFS (7.5 vs 8.1 months) and OS (21.6 vs 21.7 months). The NSCLC indication is unaffected here (KRYSTAL-12 confirmed PFS in 2L+ NSCLC). Handled as a SURPRISE (no pre-declared catalyst): pos/apr held at 100 because the drug remains marketed in NSCLC, and the CRC-withdrawal risk taken on pen -- mega_bear 0.70->0.60, bear 0.90->0.78, base 1.00->0.88, bull 1.10->1.00, psychedelic_bull 1.25->1.15. Krazati carries salesM $280M against a ~$48B BMY revenue base, so the TP effect is immaterial by construction; the edit is for narrative accuracy, not for the number. Sources: Endpoints News Jul 2026; BioSpace; Precision Medicine Online (BMS ends Krazati confirmatory trial in KRAS G12C CRC).","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_resolvedDate":"2026-07-31","_outcomeSource":"freshness review 2026-07-31 (title already marked resolved; _outcome backfilled)","failTP":49.5199918,"successTP":49.5199918,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 13, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-13","asset":"iberdomide","indication":"iber_mm","title":"REPORTED: Zenbexus (iberdomide) FDA ACCELERATED APPROVAL Aug 13 2026 -- ZDd (+ daratumumab/hyaluronidase-fihj + dex) in MM as early as first relapse; first approved CELMoD; EXCALIBER-RRMM MRD-neg CR 41%","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://news.bms.com/news/corporate-financial/2026/U-S--FDA-Grants-Accelerated-Approval-to-Bristol-Myers-Squibbs-First-CELMoD-Therapy-ZENBEXUS-in-Combination-with-Daratumumab-and-Hyaluronidase-fihj-and-Dexamethasone-ZDd-for-Patients-with-Multiple-Myeloma-as-Early-as-First-Relapse/default.aspx","failTP":42.3295291,"successTP":52.0110755,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":10,"successMove":3,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-04","asset":"arlocel","indication":"arlocel_mm_4l","title":"REPORTED (HIT): arlocabtagene autoleucel (GPRC5D CAR-T, BMS-986393) registrational Ph2 QUINTESSENTIAL met the primary ORR endpoint and the key secondary CR-rate endpoint in quad-class-exposed post-BCMA RRMM (Sep 4 2026); safety consistent with the CAR-T / GPRC5D classes. First pivotal ever run in the post-BCMA setting","type":"phase2_data","fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"failTP":49.051352,"successTP":49.6753965,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"End of 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"cobenfy","indication":"cobe_ad_agit","title":"Cobenfy ADEPT program Alzheimer's psychosis readout (ADEPT-1, ADEPT-2, ADEPT-4)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://news.bms.com/news/corporate-financial/2025/Bristol-Myers-Squibb-Announces-Continuation-of-ADEPT-2-Phase-3-Study-in-Psychosis-Associated-with-Alzheimers-Disease/default.aspx","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"ADEPT-2 delayed to end of 2026 due to site irregularities; additional enrollment ongoing; pivotal readout for Alzheimer's psychosis indication","failTP":49.5199918,"successTP":49.5199918,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cobenfy","indication":"cobe_mdd","title":"Cobenfy ADEPT-2 MDD adjunctive Phase 3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"BMY pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":49.5199918,"successTP":49.5199918,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cobenfy","indication":"cobe_ad_agit","title":"Cobenfy ARISE Phase 3 AD agitation readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"BMY pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":49.5199918,"successTP":49.5199918,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"arlocel","indication":"arlocel_mm_4l","title":"Arlocabtagene autoleucel BLA submission + FDA acceptance (GPRC5D CAR-T, 4L+ post-BCMA RRMM)","type":"bla_submission","fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":94,"success_apr":96,"failTP":49.1965332,"successTP":49.6980486,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":83,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"milvexian","indication":"milv_stroke","title":"Milvexian LIBREXIA stroke prevention Phase 3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"BMY/JNJ pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":48.9714868,"successTP":49.8270909,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"iberdomide","indication":"iber_mm","title":"Zenbexus confirmatory trial verification of clinical benefit (accelerated-approval conversion to full approval)","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":99,"failTP":41.6919893,"successTP":52.1379855,"baseTP":49.5199918,"swingPct":11,"successMove":3,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":49635,"lenses":{"comparable":58.07,"eeRel":1.55,"peRel":1.302},"readouts":[{"a":"arlocel","ind":"arlocel_mm_4l","ds":"2026-09-04","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.6150139,"lo":7.32815882,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.2335,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73},{"a":"cobenfy","ind":"cobe_ad_agit","ds":"2026-11-15","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":10.7227891,"lo":-9.47214724,"hi":38.9235274,"pBeatBest":0.14065,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27},{"a":"cobenfy","ind":"cobe_ad_agit","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":10.840906,"lo":-8.95934235,"hi":39.3550163,"pBeatBest":0.14725,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27}]},"BNTC":{"name":"Benitec Biopharma Inc.","subtitle":"BB-301 ddRNAi AAV \"Silence-and-Replace\" gene therapy for OPMD (only clinical asset in disease) -- Cohorts 1+2 dosed; interim data ESGCT Oct 27-30 2026; pivotal start mid-2027; cash $180M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":52.88,"netCashLocal":180,"cashPS":3.4039,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.62,"bear":2.79,"base":2.97,"bull":3.23,"psychedelic_bull":3.5},"weightedTP":2.99,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.opmd","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.ddrnai_silence_replace","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.opmd","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.opmd","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.opmd","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":355,"totalTAM":0.991,"totalWTD":0.21802},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"bb301","indication":"bb301_opmd","title":"REPORTED: BB-301 FDA Type C meeting on pivotal study design HELD 3Q 2026 (FY26 results Sep 14 2026); meeting minutes expected October 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3361525/0/en/benitec-biopharma-releases-full-year-2026-financial-results-and-provides-operational-update.html","failTP":2.7623227,"successTP":2.77067617,"baseTP":2.99220588,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Oct 27-30 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-28","asset":"bb301","indication":"bb301_opmd","title":"BB-301 Cohort 1 + Cohort 2 (high-dose) interim clinical results at ESGCT Oct 27-30 2026 (KEY VALUE DRIVER) -- pulled forward from Q4 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.7746679,"successTP":3.24983334,"baseTP":2.99220588,"swingPct":16,"successMove":9,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Mid-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bb301","indication":"bb301_opmd","title":"BB-301 pivotal trial initiation (company guides mid-2027; pulled forward from H2 2027)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.7623227,"successTP":2.77067617,"baseTP":2.99220588,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.21}},"BNTX":{"name":"BioNTech SE","subtitle":"mRNA platform pivoting to oncology: Comirnaty (Pfizer 50/50) + BNT327 pumitamig PD-L1xVEGF (BMS, 7 pivotal trials) + BNT122 (Roche) + BNT323 HER2 ADC | FY26 revenue guide CUT to EUR1.6-1.9B","currency":"USD","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":251,"netCashLocal":17928,"cashPS":71.4263,"tps":{"mega_bear":87.44,"bear":97.84,"base":118.48,"bull":142.73,"psychedelic_bull":158.11},"weightedTP":117.05,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","oncology.breast.tnbc.1l_pdl1_neg","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.tnbc","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.gi.colorectal.adjuvant","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_taxane","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io"],"modalities":["vaccine.mrna.covid","vaccine","vaccine.mrna","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pdl1_vegf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","vaccine.therapeutic.mrna.neoantigen_individualized","vaccine.therapeutic","vaccine.therapeutic.mrna","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.her2","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ctla4","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":31},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":13},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_taxane","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.1l_pdl1_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":42},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":30},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.1l_pdl1_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_taxane","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":88},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.1l_pdl1_neg","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_taxane","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":75,"totalTAM":101.84524,"totalWTD":58.2173058},"catalysts":[{"date":"2H 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bnt323","indication":"endometrial_her2","title":"BNT323 (trastuzumab pamirtecan) BLA filing for HER2+ endometrial","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/11/3272109/0/en/BioNTech-and-DualityBio-s-Antibody-Drug-Conjugate-Trastuzumab-Pamirtecan-Demonstrated-Clinically-Meaningful-Efficacy-in-Patients-with-HER2-Expressing-Recurrent-Endometrial-Cancer.html","_confidence":"high","_note":"Slipped: positive Ph2 primary analysis reported Apr 11 2026 (47.9% ORR overall, >70% in HER2 IHC 3+, 8.1mo mPFS); BioNTech/DualityBio still guide to first BLA filing 'in 2026' subject to FDA feedback -- not yet submitted as of 2026-07-06. Date rolled to 2H 2026.","failTP":104.648557,"successTP":107.869748,"baseTP":117.048976,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":87,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bnt122","indication":"crc_adj","title":"BNT122 / autogene cevumeran Ph2 adjuvant CRC ctDNA+ interim","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-provides-business-and-pipeline-updates-43rd-annual-jp","_confidence":"medium","failTP":116.514232,"successTP":118.161115,"baseTP":117.048976,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":37,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"comirnaty","indication":"covid","title":"Co-founders Sahin + Türeci announced departure end-2026 (operational transition risk)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://capital.com/en-int/market-updates/biontech-stock-forecast-28-04-2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":117.048976,"successTP":117.048976,"baseTP":117.048976,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"bnt327","indication":"nsclc_1l","title":"BNT327 Ph3 1L NSCLC interim","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.biontech.com/trials/BNT324-01","_confidence":"medium","failTP":110.605019,"successTP":120.948002,"baseTP":117.048976,"swingPct":9,"successMove":3,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bnt327","indication":"sclc_1l","title":"BNT327 Ph3 ES-SCLC 1L interim","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.biontech.com/trials/BNT324-01","_confidence":"medium","failTP":113.294569,"successTP":119.26187,"baseTP":117.048976,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-31","asset":"bnt327","indication":"tnbc_1l","title":"BNT327/PM8002 China Ph3 1L TNBC readout (NCT06419621, + nab-paclitaxel; PFS/OS; active not recruiting, est. primary completion Jul 2027) -- ROLLED from 2026; global ROSETTA Breast-01 (NCT07173751) reads ~2029","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://news.bms.com/news/details/2025/BioNTech-and-Bristol-Myers-Squibb-Present-First-Global-Phase-2-Data-for-PD-L1xVEGF-A-Bispecific-Antibody-Pumitamig-Showing-Encouraging-Efficacy-in-Advanced-Triple-Negative-Breast-Cancer/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","_note":"2026-10-09 freshness: re-identified + rolled. clinicaltrials.gov NCT06419621 est. primary completion Jul 2027; Q2'26 6-K gives no TNBC timing. No assumption change. 2026-09-15 self-audit: UNVERIFIED -- ROSETTA Breast-01 is a GLOBAL Ph3 still recruiting (to ~Feb 2027, primary completion 2029); a separate China Ph3 (NCT06419621) exists but no readout timing has been disclosed. Left in place pending confirmation; do not resolve on the date alone.","failTP":114.225954,"successTP":119.016593,"baseTP":117.048976,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"TBD","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"bnt316","indication":"sqnsclc_2l","title":"Gotistobart PRESERVE-003 pivotal stage 2 (2L+ squamous NSCLC vs docetaxel) OS readout -- timing not disclosed","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3360734/0/en/biontech-and-oncoc4-present-updated-data-showing-gotistobart-nearly-doubled-median-overall-survival-versus-standard-of-care-chemotherapy-in-previously-treated-squamous-non-small-ce.html","_confidence":"low","_note":"Placeholder date: company has not guided stage-2 readout timing.","failTP":113.586749,"successTP":120.203323,"baseTP":117.048976,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":1500,"lenses":{"comparable":161.57},"readouts":[{"a":"bnt327","ind":"nsclc_1l","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":7.6470199,"lo":2.78397714,"hi":12.7885587,"pBeatBest":0.1716,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"bnt316","ind":"sqnsclc_2l","ds":"2027-12-31","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":14.319464,"lo":0.891316252,"hi":33.6552085,"pBeatBest":0.132,"bestDrug":"datopotamab deruxtecan","bestValue":26.4}]},"BOLD":{"name":"Boundless Bio (-> Serapha Bio, AATD)","subtitle":"Retargeted to the Serapha reverse merger: legacy BOLD share = $44-48M cash dividend + ~3.7% of Serapha (SERP-01 SERPINA1 base editor, Ph1, AATD); Q4'26 close, ticker -> AATD","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":22.75,"netCashLocal":56,"cashPS":2.4615,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":1.7,"base":1.7,"bull":1.75,"psychedelic_bull":1.85},"weightedTP":1.55,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.genetic.a1at_lung","respiratory","respiratory.genetic"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.base_editor.invivo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.base_editor"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.a1at_lung","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.a1at_lung","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.a1at_lung","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":100}],"phase":"phase1","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":1805,"totalTAM":3.22,"totalWTD":0.16905},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 22 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-22","asset":"serp01","indication":"aatd","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-22: Boundless Bio signs reverse-merger agreement with Serapha Bio (+ $230M concurrent private placement); BOLD holders to keep ~3.7% of the combined company plus a $44-48M cash dividend; combined company to trade as 'AATD'","type":"m_and_a","binary":false,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Merger Agreement and Plan of Reorganization dated 2026-06-22, filed as Ex-2.1 to the 8-K of 2026-06-23; amended 2026-08-28 (Amendment No.1, Ex-2.1 to 8-K acc 0001193125-26-374787). Ownership split and cash dividend per company PR.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"Boundless Bio 8-K 2026-06-23 + company PR; Amendment No.1 8-K 2026-08-28","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.boundlessbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/boundless-bio-and-serapha-bio-announce-merger-agreement-and-230","failTP":1.48497052,"successTP":1.50618779,"baseTP":1.5500318,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"serp01","indication":"aatd","title":"Serapha reverse-merger close + BOLD stockholder vote (Form S-4/proxy pending) -- on close, ticker becomes AATD, cash dividend paid, and this config must be retargeted to SERP-01 (SERPINA1 in vivo gene editing, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency)","type":"m_and_a","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":40,"_source":"Boundless Bio 8-K 2026-08-28 (Amendment No.1) + company PR","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1782303/000119312526374787/d111273d8k.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.48782846,"successTP":1.59712115,"baseTP":1.5500318,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"serp01","indication":"aatd","title":"SERP-01 Phase 1 initial data (NCT07193615; ~18 patients across 35/45/55mg) -- durability and magnitude of SERPINA1 PiZ correction, serum AAT vs the 11 uM protective threshold, and liver safety","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":4,"fail_apr":12,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":60,"_source":"clinicaltrials.gov NCT07193615; Serapha Bio launch materials","_sourceUrl":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07193615","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.48784527,"successTP":1.65612167,"baseTP":1.5500318,"swingPct":8,"successMove":5,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.62}},"BSLN":{"name":"Basilea Pharmaceutica Ltd","subtitle":"Swiss anti-infective | H1 2026 rev CHF 119M (+14%), op profit CHF 31.6M (+32%); FY26 guide RAISED (rev ~+15%, commercial ~CHF 210M) | Cresemba in-market $782M TTM (+27%) | fosmanogepix Ph3 2028","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":12.5,"netCashLocal":105,"cashPS":8.4,"tps":{"mega_bear":14.77,"bear":33.36,"base":68.67,"bull":125.44,"psychedelic_bull":237.42},"weightedTP":78.7,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.fungal","infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","infectious_disease.bacterial","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antifungal.azole","small_molecule","small_molecule.antifungal","small_molecule.antibacterial.cephalosporin","small_molecule.antibacterial","small_molecule.enzyme.gwt1_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.antibacterial.beta_lactamase_inhibitor"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":135},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":68},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":40},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":32},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":25}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":127},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":64},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":63},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":36},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":9}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":170},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":85},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":30},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":15},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":58,"totalTAM":12.475,"totalWTD":7.8848416},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-15","asset":"cresemba","indication":"cresemba_inv_fungal","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-18: H1 2026 revenue CHF 119.0M (+14.4%), royalties CHF 57.8M (+10.9%), op profit CHF 31.6M (+31.7%), net profit CHF 27.9M (+76.6%); FY26 guidance RAISED (rev ~+15%, op profit ~+40%, commercial ~CHF 210M)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Basilea IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":78.7039943,"successTP":78.7039943,"baseTP":78.7039943,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-16","asset":"cresemba","indication":"cresemba_inv_fungal","title":"Basilea FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance (Cresemba royalty trajectory into US LOE ~2030-31, Zevtera US ramp)","type":"other","fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"failTP":78.7039943,"successTP":78.7039943,"baseTP":78.7039943,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ceftibuten_ledaborbactam","indication":"ctb_ledab_cuti","title":"Ceftibuten-ledaborbactam Phase 3 initiation in cUTI (company-guided mid-2027)","type":"phase3_start","fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":72,"failTP":75.2506258,"successTP":81.438661,"baseTP":78.7039943,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"fosmanogepix","indication":"fosmano_candidiasis","title":"Fosmanogepix FAST-IC Phase 3 readout (candidemia / invasive candidiasis vs caspofungin) + regulatory submission -- guided 2028","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"failTP":62.6853715,"successTP":94.6241973,"baseTP":78.7039943,"swingPct":40,"successMove":20,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"fosmanogepix","indication":"fosmano_mold","title":"Fosmanogepix FORWARD-IM Phase 3 completion (invasive mold infections; ~220 pts across two cohorts)","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":86,"success_apr":90,"failTP":68.6726548,"successTP":89.3471213,"baseTP":78.7039943,"swingPct":27,"successMove":14,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":160,"lenses":{"comparable":64.98,"eeRel":0.9739,"peRel":0.7659}},"CABA":{"name":"Cabaletta Bio","subtitle":"Autologous CD19 CAR-T autoimmune (rese-cel): EULAR'26 HIT, 80% (8/10) adults met primary, durable 1.5y | SSc-ILD registrational 4Q26 | myositis BLA 2H27 | cash $225.1M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":163,"netCashLocal":225.1,"cashPS":1.381,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.78,"bear":1.29,"base":2.85,"bull":6.23,"psychedelic_bull":13.03},"weightedTP":3.31,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pemphigus_vulgaris","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_cd19_autoimmune","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.caart_dsg3","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.caart_musk"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":68},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":64},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":58},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":47},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":35},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pemphigus_vulgaris","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":7}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":134},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":80},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":26},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pemphigus_vulgaris","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":170},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":86},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pemphigus_vulgaris","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":880,"totalTAM":38.8494,"totalWTD":3.9639144},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-03","asset":"rese_cel","indication":"sle","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-03: EULAR 2026 (London) HIT -- RESET-Myositis 83% DM IM-free (5/6) + 75% ASyS, sustained to 1.5y (reflected in myositis base pos 50); RESET-SSc selected as 2nd pivotal indication; RESET-SLE PC-free deep B-cell depletion only (SLE stays early)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/12/3216791/0/en/Cabaletta-Bio-Announces-2026-Strategic-Priorities.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeNote":"Jun 3 2026 EULAR London: positive across all 3 RESET indications. SSc-ILD registrational study initiation 4Q26 (~25 patients) announced as 2nd pivotal indication after Myositis.","failTP":2.70969307,"successTP":5.22867542,"baseTP":3.3086472,"swingPct":76,"successMove":58,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"4Q 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"rese_cel","indication":"ssc","title":"RESET-SSc-ILD registrational (single-arm Ph2 pivotal, ~25 SSc-ILD pts) study initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":3.09629562,"successTP":3.30048834,"baseTP":3.3086472,"swingPct":2,"successMove":0,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"rese_cel","indication":"sle","title":"RESET-SLE PC-free (no preconditioning) longer-term data at lowest dose 2H'26","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.cabalettabio.com/news-media/press-releases/detail/148/cabaletta-bio-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.75152727,"successTP":4.94308724,"baseTP":3.3086472,"swingPct":66,"successMove":49,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rese_cel","indication":"sle","title":"RESET-Myositis registrational topline (17-pt single-arm DM + ASyS cohort; 16-wk TIS primary off immunomodulators) -- gates the 2H27 BLA","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.cabalettabio.com/news-media/press-releases/detail/150/cabaletta-bio-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.7256877,"successTP":5.33851704,"baseTP":3.3086472,"swingPct":79,"successMove":61,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"rese_cel","indication":"myositis","title":"Rese-cel Myositis BLA submission 2H 2027 (registrational 17-pt cohort; company guidance tightened on the Q2'26 call)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.cabalettabio.com/news-media/press-releases/detail/150/cabaletta-bio-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.80969807,"successTP":7.28160114,"baseTP":3.3086472,"swingPct":33,"successMove":24,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":29,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":11.24},"readouts":[{"a":"rese_cel","ind":"sle","ds":"2026-06-03","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":4.34437004,"lo":-15,"hi":43.4208019,"pBeatBest":0.0219,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"rese_cel","ind":"sle","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":4.276074,"lo":-15,"hi":44.1535162,"pBeatBest":0.0245,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"rese_cel","ind":"sle","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":4.10521652,"lo":-15,"hi":44.1098443,"pBeatBest":0.02405,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"CALC":{"name":"CalciMedica, Inc.","subtitle":"Micro-cap CRAC inhibitor: Auxora AP Ph2b (FDA: no Ph3 yet) + Ph2 AAP; KOURAGE Ph2 AKI discontinued Jan'26, no restart; PH pivot (Ph1b PAH + oral CM5480); 1-for-5 split Aug'26 (6.9M sh); cash $18.6M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":6.9,"netCashLocal":18.6,"cashPS":2.6957,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":5.6,"bull":26.19,"psychedelic_bull":57.96},"weightedTP":4.65,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.pancreas.acute_pancreatitis","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.pancreas","nephrology.aki.severe","nephrology","nephrology.aki","oncology.supportive_care.asparaginase_pancreatitis","oncology","oncology.supportive_care","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.crac_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":147},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":74},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.acute_pancreatitis","purity":39},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":19},{"area":"nephrology.aki.severe","purity":13},{"area":"nephrology.aki","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.asparaginase_pancreatitis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.acute_pancreatitis","purity":122},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":70},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":61},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.asparaginase_pancreatitis","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.aki.severe","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.aki","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.acute_pancreatitis","purity":165},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":83},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.asparaginase_pancreatitis","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":9},{"area":"nephrology.aki.severe","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":4},{"area":"nephrology.aki","purity":2}],"phase":"phase1","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":74,"rarePurityWtd":35,"optionality":2032,"totalTAM":19.51906,"totalWTD":0.91547085},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 24 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-24","asset":"auxora","indication":"auxora_ap","title":"RESOLVED 2026-06-24: PIPE of up to $49M ($15M upfront, ~$34M milestone-linked); cash $18.6M at Jun 30, runway into 2H27, going-concern language","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.0000320764213,"successTP":0.747617988,"baseTP":4.65411176,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-25,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-29,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"auxora","indication":"auxora_aki","title":"RESOLVED: KOURAGE Ph2 severe AKI discontinued following IDMC recommendation (Jan 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Jan 28 2026: CalciMedica discontinued the Phase 2 KOURAGE trial in AKI after the Independent Data Monitoring Committee flagged a safety concern warranting reevaluation of enrollment criteria at a prescheduled interim review. No trial deaths were assessed as drug-related and no SAEs required expedited FDA reporting; company to analyze unblinded data to inform any future AKI testing and expected FDA feedback on AKI development in Q2 2026. Company subsequently pivoted to a pulmonary-hypertension strategy (Jun 2026 ~$49M private placement).","_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/calcimedica-announces-discontinuation-of-phase-2-kourage-trial-in-aki-following-independent-data-monitoring-committee-recommendation-302671925.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.0456134,"successTP":10.0765724,"baseTP":4.65411176,"swingPct":130,"successMove":117,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Jul 29 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-29","asset":"auxora","indication":"auxora_ap","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-29: FDA feedback -- NO Ph3 yet: FDA aligned on a Phase 2b in acute pancreatitis first (primary: new-onset severe respiratory failure; elevated-LDH enrichment); Ph3 design deferred to later meetings","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Q1 2026 update (May 2026) still guided FDA feedback on AP pivotal design 'expected in H1/Q2 2026' but no alignment disclosed; rolled ~1 quarter.","_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/calcimedica-announces-fda-alignment-on-phase-2b-trial-design-for-auxora-in-acute-pancreatitis-and-identifies-diseases-first-potential-registrational-endpoints-302837341.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.0000320764213,"successTP":0.747617988,"baseTP":4.65411176,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-42,"failMove":-50,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-49,"daysOut":null,"materiality":49},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"auxora","indication":"auxora_aap","title":"AAP Ph2 pediatric pancreatitis update","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":2.65690859,"successTP":5.37869119,"baseTP":4.65411176,"swingPct":59,"successMove":16,"failMove":-43,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"auxora","indication":"auxora_ap","title":"Auxora Phase 2b acute pancreatitis initiation (FDA-aligned design, Jul 2026) -- replaces the CARPO-3 Ph3 start; timing not yet guided","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.0000320764213,"successTP":0.747617988,"baseTP":4.65411176,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-25,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":27,"expectedReturn":-29,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"auxora","indication":"auxora_pah","title":"Auxora Ph1b PAH proof-of-concept data (CRAC inhibition, hemodynamics/RV)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":4,"fail_apr":12,"success_pos":22,"success_apr":38,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/calcimedica-announces-private-placement-financing-for-up-to-approximately-49-million-to-advance-pulmonary-hypertension-program-302808596.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.23470318,"successTP":5.05152294,"baseTP":4.65411176,"swingPct":13,"successMove":6,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cm5480","indication":"cm5480_ph","title":"CM5480 oral CRAC IND clearance (pulmonary hypertension)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/calcimedica-announces-private-placement-financing-for-up-to-approximately-49-million-to-advance-pulmonary-hypertension-program-302808596.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.32329372,"successTP":4.75322771,"baseTP":4.65411176,"swingPct":5,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":1,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"auxora","indication":"auxora_ap","title":"Auxora AP Phase 2b readout (was CARPO-3 Ph3 interim; FDA required Ph2b first, Jul 2026) -- timing unguided","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":0.0000320764213,"successTP":0.747617988,"baseTP":4.65411176,"swingPct":16,"successMove":-84,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":27,"expectedReturn":-96,"daysOut":null,"materiality":97}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","ratioPct":120}]},"lenses":{"comparable":3.51},"readouts":[{"a":"auxora","ind":"auxora_pah","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","endpoint":"six_mwd_change_m","unit":"m","src":"class","med":14.1846986,"lo":-27.1135052,"hi":62.062959,"pBeatBest":0.14535,"bestDrug":"sotatercept","bestValue":40.8}]},"CAMP":{"name":"CAMP4 Therapeutics Corporation","subtitle":"RNA Actuating Platform (RAP) regRNA upregulating ASOs: CMP-002 SYNGAP1 DEE Ph1/2 FIH Q4 26 (TGA+ANMAT cleared) | CMP-001 UCD shelved pending partner | Cash ~136M pro forma, runway to end-2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":90.64,"netCashLocal":136.5,"cashPS":1.506,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.91,"bear":1.03,"base":1.45,"bull":2.43,"psychedelic_bull":4.04},"weightedTP":1.71,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","cns","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.upregulator","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":132},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":66},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","purity":34},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":34},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":34}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","purity":81},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":81},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":81},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":39},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","purity":93},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":93},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":93},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":7}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":66,"rarePurityWtd":19,"optionality":1867,"totalTAM":1.0535,"totalWTD":0.05355},"catalysts":[{"date":"Nov 2025","dateSort":"2025-11-06","asset":"cmpcps001","indication":"cps001_ucd","title":"RESOLVED 2025-11-06: CMP-CPS-001 Ph1b OTC-het readout NOT pursued internally -- CAMP4 seeking a partner for CMP-001 (Q3 25 PR); no readout guided","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1736730/000173673025000092/exhibit991-camp4reportsthi.htm","failTP":1.65311622,"successTP":2.5483491,"baseTP":1.70827784,"swingPct":36,"successMove":34,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Nov 2025","dateSort":"2025-11-06","asset":"cmpcps001","indication":"cps001_ucd","title":"RESOLVED 2025-11-06: CMP-CPS-001 Ph3 registrational start in UCD dropped from guidance -- programme shelved pending partnership","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1736730/000173673025000092/exhibit991-camp4reportsthi.htm","failTP":1.61478616,"successTP":1.66342083,"baseTP":1.70827784,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Sep 28 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-28","asset":"cmp002","indication":"cmp002_syngap","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-28: CAMP4 virtual Analyst Day on CMP-002 for SYNGAP1-related disorder held -- Ph1/2 FIH trial design + early discovery update presented; FIH start reiterated Q4 2026, no clinical data","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3358105/0/en/camp4-therapeutics-to-host-virtual-analyst-day-to-discuss-cmp-002-for-the-treatment-of-syngap1-related-disorder-on-september-28-2026.html","failTP":0.96078414,"successTP":1.00788848,"baseTP":1.70827784,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-12,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"cmp002","indication":"cmp002_syngap","title":"CMP-002 global Ph1/2 SYNGAP1 first-in-human init (guided Q4 2026; TGA + ANMAT cleared)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.96078414,"successTP":1.00788848,"baseTP":1.70827784,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":67,"ceilPct":65,"position":"first_in_disease","asset":"cmp002","ind":"cmp002_syngap","area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","somB":0.2,"tamB":0.4}},"lenses":{"comparable":1.78}},"CAMX":{"name":"Camurus","subtitle":"Buvidal/Brixadi opioid dependence | Oczyesa acromegaly EU launched | Oclaiz CAM2029 2nd CRL Jun 10 26, resubmitted, PDUFA Dec 18 26 | Lilly incretin deal","currency":"SEK","country":"SE","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":60,"netCashLocal":4069,"cashPS":67.8167,"tps":{"mega_bear":171.4,"bear":297.07,"base":535.29,"bull":828.79,"psychedelic_bull":1347.28},"weightedTP":595.33,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.substance_use","endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine","gastro_hepatology.liver.pld_adpkd","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.depot.fluidcrystal_sc","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.depot","formulation_modifier.depot.fluidcrystal_incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":193},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":96},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pld_adpkd","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":156},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":78},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":15},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":6},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pld_adpkd","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":73},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":73},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":30},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":15},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pld_adpkd","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":6,"optionality":674,"totalTAM":149.55995,"totalWTD":19.3296517},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 10 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-10","asset":"oczyesa","indication":"acro","title":"REPORTED: Oclaiz/CAM2029 CRL received from FDA (acromegaly NDA; third-party cGMP/manufacturing observations only, no efficacy/safety issues; resubmitted, accepted Jul 17 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/camurus-announces-fda-acceptance-of-nda-resubmission-for-oclaiz-for-the-treatment-of-acromegaly-302657385.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"FDA assigned PDUFA target action date of June 10, 2026 for NDA resubmission","_outcome":"fail","failTP":595.33459,"successTP":595.33459,"baseTP":595.33459,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 17 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-17","asset":"oczyesa","indication":"acro","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-17: Oclaiz/CAM2029 NDA resubmitted (post-CRL CMC remediation) and accepted by FDA -- PDUFA Dec 18 2026","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.camurus.com/media/press-releases/2026/camurus-nda-resubmission-for-cam2029-in-acromegaly-accepted-for-review-by-the-us-fda/","failTP":595.33459,"successTP":595.33459,"baseTP":595.33459,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sorento","indication":"gepnet","title":"SORENTO Ph3 GEP-NET primary efficacy readout -- company guides Q4 2026 (largest randomised SSA trial in GEP-NET; positive result would position CAM2029 first-line)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Camurus Q2 2026 interim report / company guidance, reconfirmed Aug 2026","_sourceUrl":"https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/Tipranks/234065/camurus-ab-earnings-call-growth-fx-and-u-s-push/","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Updated timeline shows SORENTO primary readout targeted for H2 2026, event-driven.","_note":"SORENTO (CAM2029, octreotide SC depot, GEP-NET) PFS-event accrual slower than planned (tumor control better than expected); Camurus Q2'26 call guides 194-event target in Q4 2026 with primary readout to follow. Rolled to Q4'26.","failTP":591.6076,"successTP":598.016796,"baseTP":595.33459,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Dec 18 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-18","asset":"oczyesa","indication":"acro","title":"Oclaiz/CAM2029 PDUFA decision Dec 18 2026 (post-resubmission; rolled forward from H1 2028 -- resubmission came Jul 2026, not 2027)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.camurus.com/media/press-releases/2026/camurus-nda-resubmission-for-cam2029-in-acromegaly-accepted-for-review-by-the-us-fda/","failTP":595.33459,"successTP":595.33459,"baseTP":595.33459,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":408,"lenses":{"comparable":229.2,"eeRel":0.4599,"peRel":0.327}},"CAPLIPOINT":{"name":"Caplin Point Laboratories","subtitle":"India CDMO dominant LATAM + Francophone Africa + growing US/EU: FY25 rev +14.4%; Q4 FY26 rev INR 600 Cr + NI INR 173 Cr (+19%); MCap INR 154B","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":75.7,"netCashLocal":5000,"cashPS":66.0502,"tps":{"mega_bear":592.36,"bear":754.95,"base":898.49,"bull":1199.88,"psychedelic_bull":1495.48},"weightedTP":932.4,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.generics_latam_africa_us","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":3,"totalWTD":3},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"caplin_cdmo","indication":"caplin_franchise","title":"Caplin FY 2027 (Apr'26-Mar'27) LATAM growth + US regulated market scale","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://alphastreet.com/india/caplin-point-laboratories-ltd-caplipoint-q4-2026-earnings-call-transcript/","_confidence":"high","failTP":772.529726,"successTP":1116.47299,"baseTP":932.397858,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1696.6,"peRel":0.939}},"CAPR":{"name":"Capricor Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Allogeneic CDC cell therapy | Deramiocel DMD BLA: AdCom 3-9 AGAINST Jul 29'26; PDUFA EXTENDED to Nov 22'26 | HOPE-3 24mo data WMS Oct 3 | NS Pharma arbitration | ~$238M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":58.11,"netCashLocal":237.9,"cashPS":4.094,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.21,"bear":2.91,"base":3.86,"bull":7.4,"psychedelic_bull":13.61},"weightedTP":4.57,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","_platform.delivery.exosome","_platform","_platform.delivery"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.cardiosphere_derived","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","_platform.delivery.exosome","_platform","_platform.delivery"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.delivery.exosome","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.delivery.exosome","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.delivery.exosome","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":535,"totalTAM":3.468,"totalWTD":0.54621},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-05-12","asset":"deramiocel","indication":"dmd_cardiomyopathy","title":"REPORTED: CAPR Q1 2026 earnings reported (BLA review on schedule; NS Pharma litigation status disclosed; cash runway updated)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"CAPR PR May 5 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":3.62600153,"successTP":9.59541688,"baseTP":4.56976075,"swingPct":66,"successMove":55,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":16,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"Jul 29 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-07-29","asset":"deramiocel","indication":"dmd_cardiomyopathy","title":"REPORTED (fail): FDA Cellular, Tissue & Gene Therapies Advisory Committee voted 3-9 that available evidence does NOT support effectiveness of deramiocel for DMD cardiomyopathy (Jul 29 2026). Vote non-binding and on a narrower indication than Capricor proposed; no vote taken on overall benefit-risk; separate upper-limb (HOPE-3 PUL v2.0) discussion was directionally supportive. Stock -45%. PDUFA remains Aug 22 2026.","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":93,"_source":"CAPR 8-K Jun 26 2026; NeurologyLive; capricor.com PR #348","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.3167242,"successTP":10.8134871,"baseTP":4.56976075,"swingPct":82,"successMove":69,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":16,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"stealthx_platform","indication":"stealthx_discovery","title":"StealthX exosome vaccine Phase 1 final data (NIAID-sponsored)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.capricor.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/340/capricor-therapeutics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year","_confidence":"medium","_note":"Slipped: Phase 1 dosing ongoing (first subjects dosed Aug 2025); interim data showed favorable safety/tolerability but final NIAID Ph1 readout not yet reported as of 2026-07-06. Date rolled ~1Q.","failTP":4.56976075,"successTP":4.56976075,"baseTP":4.56976075,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 22 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-11-22","asset":"deramiocel","indication":"dmd_cardiomyopathy","title":"Deramiocel PDUFA decision (refined upper-limb DMD indication) -- EXTENDED 3mo from Aug 22 2026; FDA classed the HOPE-3 24mo OLE + robustness BLA amendment a major amendment (PR 24 Aug 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"CAPR PDUFA notice + Mar 10 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.0811906,"successTP":11.5873738,"baseTP":4.56976075,"swingPct":187,"successMove":154,"failMove":-33,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":51,"daysOut":null,"materiality":40},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"deramiocel","indication":"dmd_cardiomyopathy","title":"NS Pharma litigation outcome / revised commercialization terms (US distribution) -- PI motion withdrawn Aug 10 2026; dispute moves to arbitration after the FDA decision (Q2 PR)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"CAPR lawsuit filing May 7 2026","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.62374076,"successTP":10.5625463,"baseTP":4.56976075,"swingPct":76,"successMove":66,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":16,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"deramiocel","indication":"dmd_cardiomyopathy","title":"Deramiocel EU EMA filing (post-US approval)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"CAPR pipeline guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.62600153,"successTP":10.5625463,"baseTP":4.56976075,"swingPct":76,"successMove":66,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":16,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.83}},"CATX":{"name":"Perspective Therapeutics","subtitle":"212Pb alpha radioligand: VMT-a-NET SSTR2 NET Ph1/2a 43% ORR, 76 pts, ESMO update Oct23'26 -> Ph3 site activation ~YE'26; VMT01 MC1R melanoma; PSV359 FAP+; cash $237M (Jun30'26) into late 2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":114,"netCashLocal":237,"cashPS":2.0789,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.59,"bear":2.05,"base":2.71,"bull":4.14,"psychedelic_bull":5.45},"weightedTP":2.82,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine","oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","oncology.tissue_agnostic"],"modalities":["radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter.pb212_sstr2","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter","radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter.pb212_mc1r","radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter.pb212_fap"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":167},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":83},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":7}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":142},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":151},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":75},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":369,"totalTAM":14.1707,"totalWTD":3.02444624},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 23, 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-23","asset":"vmt_anet","indication":"vmt_gepnet","title":"VMT-α-NET Ph1/2a updated NET data at ESMO Oct 23 2026 (post-AACR/ASCO 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CATX/perspective-therapeutics-presents-updated-interim-data-of-212pb-vmt-zlyx4iynm522.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.89663162,"successTP":3.44649105,"baseTP":2.8212492,"swingPct":55,"successMove":22,"failMove":-33,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"~YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"vmt_anet","indication":"vmt_gepnet","title":"VMT-α-NET registration-enabling PHASE 3 site activation (SSTR2+ NET; cumulative 20 mCi over up to 4 treatments q8w) -- subject to regulatory feedback + protocol finalization","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CATX/perspective-therapeutics-provides-recent-business-highlights-and-rzcw8r9csszb.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.284444,"successTP":3.44649105,"baseTP":2.8212492,"swingPct":12,"successMove":7,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.48}},"CBIO":{"name":"Crescent Biopharma, Inc.","subtitle":"CR-001 PD-1xVEGF bispecific Ph1/2 ASCEND (PoC Q1'27) + CR-002 PD-L1 ADC + CR-003 ITGB6 ADC (Kelun China) | Pro forma cash $305M (Jun'26) into 2H 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":40.57,"netCashLocal":305.1,"cashPS":7.5203,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.87,"bear":7.97,"base":13.34,"bull":21.56,"psychedelic_bull":31.18},"weightedTP":13.04,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.gi.pancreatic"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_vegf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.pd_l1","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.itgb6"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":4}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":284,"totalTAM":51.7445,"totalWTD":13.480061},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"cr002","indication":"cr002_nsclc_postio","title":"CR-002 PD-L1 ADC IND clearance + Ph1/2 first dose","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":10.9800265,"successTP":12.3144853,"baseTP":13.038327,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-30","asset":"cr001","indication":"cr001_nsclc","title":"CR-001 ASCEND Ph1/2 proof-of-concept data (monotherapy)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"high","failTP":9.52039275,"successTP":15.0904844,"baseTP":13.038327,"swingPct":43,"successMove":16,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"cr003","indication":"cr003_pdac","title":"CR-003 (SKB105) ITGB6 ADC proof-of-concept data (Kelun-led China Ph1/2)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_source":"CBIO Q2 2026 PR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.6204564,"successTP":12.5857089,"baseTP":13.038327,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"mid-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cr001","indication":"cr001_nsclc","title":"CR-001 initial data in combination with SoC chemotherapy regimens (ASCEND; guided mid-2027) + Kelun China Ph2 initial data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.52039275,"successTP":15.2334479,"baseTP":13.038327,"swingPct":44,"successMove":17,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":14},"readouts":[{"a":"cr001","ind":"cr001_nsclc","ds":"2027-03-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":19.4858965,"lo":1.14894453,"hi":37.4916591,"pBeatBest":0.2283,"bestDrug":"datopotamab deruxtecan","bestValue":26.4},{"a":"cr001","ind":"cr001_nsclc","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":19.6162767,"lo":1.51184859,"hi":37.5555049,"pBeatBest":0.2309,"bestDrug":"datopotamab deruxtecan","bestValue":26.4}]},"CCCC":{"name":"C4 Therapeutics","subtitle":"Protein degradation: cemsidomide IKZF1/3 -- MOMENTUM Ph2 MM enrolls to Q1'27, response data H2'27; elranatamab Ph1b update H2'26 | Roche DAC | cash $300.4M to end-2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":130.7,"netCashLocal":300.4,"cashPS":2.2984,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.6,"bear":1.87,"base":2.31,"bull":2.75,"psychedelic_bull":3.2},"weightedTP":2.22,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","_platform.adc_discovery","_platform","oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_degrader.molecular_glue","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_degrader"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":5},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":9},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":8},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":478,"totalTAM":22.52255,"totalWTD":3.89501229},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cemsidomide","indication":"cems_mm","title":"Cemsidomide + elranatamab (Pfizer ELREXFIO) Ph1b MM DOSE-ESCALATION update H2'26 (full cohort data now guided mid-2027)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/c4-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-recent-business-highlights","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.94640669,"successTP":2.49229398,"baseTP":2.21712899,"swingPct":17,"successMove":8,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":41,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cemsidomide","indication":"cems_mm","title":"Cemsidomide + elranatamab Ph1b MM FULL COHORT data (mid-2027); SoC-combination Ph1b initiates H1 2027","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":58,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/c4-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-recent-business-highlights","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.9182471,"successTP":2.33058901,"baseTP":2.21712899,"swingPct":13,"successMove":4,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":41,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"cemsidomide","indication":"cems_mm","title":"Cemsidomide MOMENTUM Ph2 MM + dex INITIAL RESPONSE-RATE data -- SLIPPED from Q3'26; enrollment (~100 pts) completes Q1 2027, data H2 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/c4-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-recent-business-highlights","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.97590811,"successTP":2.56278743,"baseTP":2.21712899,"swingPct":27,"successMove":16,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":41,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.22},"readouts":[{"a":"cemsidomide","ind":"cems_mm","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":45.5318057,"lo":2.64281738,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.1766,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73},{"a":"cemsidomide","ind":"cems_mm","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.6883333,"lo":3.8990977,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.2415,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73},{"a":"cemsidomide","ind":"cems_mm","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.7156102,"lo":5.42193819,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.23915,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73}]},"CELC":{"name":"Celcuity","subtitle":"Gedatolisib APPROVED (REVTORPYK) Jul 14 2026 · HR+/HER2- PIK3CA WT 2L+ ABC · US launch Sep 30'26 · mutant-cohort sNDA filed Aug'26 · $575M 0.25% CB 2032 (debt) + ITM 2031 CB (dilution)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":59,"netCashLocal":179,"cashPS":3.0339,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.25,"bear":15.09,"base":42.2,"bull":59.49,"psychedelic_bull":87.58},"weightedTP":43.13,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.pi3k","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":138,"totalTAM":33.6683,"totalWTD":14.148324},"catalysts":[{"date":"May-Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-02","asset":"geda_mt","indication":"bc_mt","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-02: VIKTORIA-1 PIK3CA-MUTANT cohort HIT PFS primary -- gedatolisib triplet HR=0.50 (mPFS 11.1 vs 5.6mo vs alpelisib+fulvestrant, p<0.0001), doublet HR=0.51; topline May 1, detailed at ASCO Jun 2","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED: VIKTORIA-1 mutant cohort met PFS primary (topline 2026-05-01, detailed ASCO 2026-06-02). Basis for the mutant-cohort sNDA (Q3'26). Source: Celcuity IR / ASCO 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":34.1443241,"successTP":45.9706639,"baseTP":43.1280332,"swingPct":28,"successMove":7,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Jun 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-03","asset":"geda_wt","indication":"bc_wt","title":"REPORTED: $500M CB due 2032 (upsized from $400M) -- refinances Oxford term loan, cash ~475M -> ~515M, kills senior secured covenants + frees IP collateral; dilution ~4–5M shares at conversion","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":92,"fail_apr":95,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2026/06/03/celcuity-inc-announces-public-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-due-2032","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"$500M CB due 2032 (upsized from $400M) priced and closed Jun 8, 2026; $484.3M net proceeds (or $557M with over-allotment); refinances Oxford term loan, eliminates senior secured covenants, frees IP collateral.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":29.7588618,"successTP":52.6407513,"baseTP":43.1280332,"swingPct":27,"successMove":11,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":34},{"date":"Jul 14, 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-14","asset":"geda_wt","indication":"bc_wt","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-14: Gedatolisib APPROVED by FDA (REVTORPYK) for HR+/HER2- PIK3CA wild-type 2L+ ABC, ahead of Jul 17 PDUFA -- hit; bc_wt apr moved to 100 across scenarios (VIKTORIA-1 met PFS primary; + fulvestrant doublet or + fulvestrant/palbociclib triplet)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.celcuity.com/news-releases/news-release-details/celcuity-announces-fda-approval-revtorpyktm-gedatolisib","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_rationale":"FDA approved REVTORPYK (gedatolisib) Jul 14 2026, ahead of Jul 17 PDUFA; VIKTORIA-1 PIK3CA-WT cohort met PFS primary","failTP":11.8591711,"successTP":52.6407513,"baseTP":43.1280332,"swingPct":95,"successMove":22,"failMove":-73,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":22,"daysOut":null,"materiality":68},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-26","asset":"geda_mt","indication":"bc_mt","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-26: sNDA SUBMITTED to FDA for REVTORPYK (gedatolisib) in HR+/HER2- PIK3CA-MUTANT locally advanced/metastatic breast cancer (VIKTORIA-1 mutant cohort) -- filed ahead of the Q3 2026 guide; would be the first pan-class-I PI3K + mTORC1/2 inhibitor in PIK3CA-mutant ABC","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/26/celcuity-submits-snda-to-fda-for-revtorpyk-gedatolisib-for-hrher2-pik3ca-mutant-locally-advanced-or-metastatic-breast-cancer","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Submission milestone met (company PR 2026-08-26), on the timeline the config already assumed, so no assumption change: the sNDA was already priced into geda_mt pos/apr. Recorded as a de-risking of filing timing only. Separately, the bear-case pen for bc_mt was 0.25 against mega_bear 0.30 -- a monotonicity inversion -- corrected to 0.50 in this pass.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":33.8248906,"successTP":38.4991589,"baseTP":43.1280332,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":83,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"geda_mt","indication":"bc_mt","title":"FDA ACCEPTANCE of the REVTORPYK PIK3CA-MUTANT sNDA and assignment of a PDUFA goal date -- submitted 2026-08-26 on VIKTORIA-1 (mPFS 11.1mo triplet / 11.3mo doublet vs 5.6mo alpelisib+fulvestrant)","type":"regulatory","failTP":33.8248906,"successTP":38.4991589,"baseTP":43.1280332,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":83,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"geda_1l","indication":"bc_1l","title":"VIKTORIA-2 1L HR+/HER2- Phase 3","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_note":"MIS-DATED: VIKTORIA-2 (gedatolisib 1L HR+/HER2-) is still ENROLLING (design expanded May 2026) and reads out ~2028, NOT 2026. The 2026 gedatolisib catalysts were VIKTORIA-1 (reported positive Jun 2 2026) + the Jul 17 2026 PDUFA -- verify those are captured separately. Rolled to ~2028.","failTP":40.0135936,"successTP":49.8801846,"baseTP":43.1280332,"swingPct":23,"successMove":16,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":40.88}},"CELLTRION":{"name":"Celltrion Inc.","subtitle":"Korean biosimilars pure-play | Q2'26 rev KRW1.3T (+35.2%), OP KRW430B (+77.3%), margin ~33%; FY26E ~KRW5T | newer portfolio (Zymfentra/Yuflyma/Steqeyma) >60% of revenue","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":217,"netCashLocal":1370000,"cashPS":6313.3641,"tps":{"mega_bear":69908.3,"bear":105853.55,"base":144563.88,"bull":227513.59,"psychedelic_bull":401707.51},"weightedTP":162176.66,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology.demyelinating"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_vegf","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd20","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_her2","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23p40","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ige","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il6r","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_rankl"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":62},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":31},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":23},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":21},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":19},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":15},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":15},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":10},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":9},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":30},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":22},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":20},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":17},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":10},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":89},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":45},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":3},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":7,"totalTAM":200.5315,"totalWTD":186.554236},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-03","asset":"remsima_zymfentra","indication":"ibd_ra","title":"REPORTED (2026-07-03): Celltrion Q2 2026 preliminary results -- record quarter, revenue KRW 1.3T (+35.2% YoY), operating profit KRW 430B (+77.3% YoY), operating margin ~33% (vs 25%); newer portfolio (Zymfentra/Remsima SC, Yuflyma, Steqeyma) >60% of revenue; Zymfentra at record US prescription volumes; company approaching a ~KRW 5T annual revenue run-rate","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.kedglobal.com/earnings/newsView/ked202607030006","_confidence":"high","failTP":162176.659,"successTP":162176.659,"baseTP":162176.659,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"remsima_zymfentra","indication":"ibd_ra","title":"Zymfentra US formulary expansion + 2026 inflection","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Celltrion FY25 IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":162176.659,"successTP":162176.659,"baseTP":162176.659,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ct_p53","indication":"ms","title":"Ocrelizumab biosimilar (CT-P53) Phase 3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Celltrion pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":162176.143,"successTP":162176.992,"baseTP":162176.659,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"ct_p51","indication":"osteoporosis_bone_mets","title":"Pembrolizumab (Keytruda) biosimilar CT-P51 -- global Ph3 in 1L metastatic non-sq NSCLC; SLIPPED: trial DOWNSIZED ~606 -> ~220 pts (FDA protocol amendment effective Sep 5 2026, ~2y duration; EU Ph3 terminated / IND withdrawn Jul 2026) -- readout not before ~2028","type":"bla_submission","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Celltrion pipeline / KBR + KED Global coverage of the CT-P51 Ph3 NSCLC IND clearance; Pearce IP biosimilar pipeline update Feb 2026","_confidence":"high","_note":"CORRECTED 2026-08-18. CT-P51 is the Celltrion biosimilar to Merck KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab), running a global Ph3 equivalence study in 606 patients with metastatic NSCLC; Keytruda is the largest drug in the world at roughly $25B of annual sales, so this is the single most valuable biosimilar in the pipeline. The denosumab biosimilar is CT-P41 (STOBOCLO / OSENVELT), which the FDA approved 2025-02-28, designated interchangeable 2025-10-29 and the EC authorised in Feb 2025 -- it is already carried as commercial in this config, so it could not also be a 2026 approval catalyst. Previous title: Pembrolizumab (Keytruda) biosimilar CT-P51 -- global Ph3 in metastatic NSCLC (n=606) reading out toward US/EU filings; RETITLED Aug 18 2026, this catalyst previously said denosumab which was wrong | ROLLED 2026-10-02: per Pearce IP (Jul 6 2026) + Youth Daily KR coverage of the Sep 5 2026 FDA amendment; secondary sources, date-only change.","failTP":162176.52,"successTP":162176.758,"baseTP":162176.659,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":124307.3,"eeRel":0.5172},"readouts":[{"a":"ct_p53","ind":"ms","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","endpoint":"arr_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":38.8055757,"lo":-12.0987096,"hi":90,"pBeatBest":0.15395,"bestDrug":"natalizumab","bestValue":68}]},"CGEM":{"name":"Cullinan Therapeutics","subtitle":"REZILIENT3 1L ex20ins Ph3: PFS HR 0.50 (14.5 vs 8.5mo, WCLC Sep'26), OS immature; zipalertinib 2L PDUFA Feb 27'27 (Taiho 50/50); CLN-978 + velinotamig TCE autoimmune; cash $356M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":61.46,"netCashLocal":356,"cashPS":5.7924,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.88,"bear":18.18,"base":25.79,"bull":35.36,"psychedelic_bull":46.05},"weightedTP":25.99,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","oncology.leukemia.aml.flt3_mut","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.egfr_ex20","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cd19_cd3","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.flt3_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bcma_cd3"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":83},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":66},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":42},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.flt3_mut","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":54},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":51},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":38},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":26},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.flt3_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":47},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":36},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":23},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.flt3_mut","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":149,"totalTAM":74.892,"totalWTD":30.0636038},"catalysts":[{"date":"August 12, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-12","asset":"zipalertinib","indication":"zip_nsclc_ex20","title":"REPORTED: REZILIENT3 1L EGFR ex20ins NSCLC Ph3 HIT -- met PFS primary at planned interim analysis (n=285); IDMC recommended unblinding","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.taihooncology.com/us/news/zipalertinib-plus-chemotherapy-meets-primary-endpoint-of-progression-free-survival-in-planned-interim-analysis-of-phase-3-rezilient3-trial-in-first-line-egfr-exon-20-insertion-mutation-non-small-cell-lung-cancer/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Zipalertinib + platinum chemo met the primary endpoint of PFS at a planned interim analysis in previously untreated locally advanced/metastatic EGFR ex20ins NSCLC (n=285 randomised); statistically significant and clinically meaningful PFS benefit with manageable safety; IDMC recommended unblinding while the trial continues. Taiho Oncology / Taiho Pharmaceutical / Cullinan plan a US 1L filing after FDA discussion. Read out ~13 months EARLY vs the H2 2027 guide. NOTE: this catalyst's pre-declared success_pos (85) / success_apr (88) sit BELOW the config's live base assumption (95/96), which already prices the 2L NDA acceptance and Feb 2027 PDUFA -- a later, stronger de-risking event than the catalyst author anticipated. Mechanically applying success_pos would have been a DOWNGRADE on a win, so base/bull/psych were left unchanged and only the mega_bear branch (which carried the now-eliminated 'REZILIENT3 fails' leg) was lifted: pos 60->72, apr 55->65. Source: Taiho Oncology corporate PR + Cullinan PR, Aug 12 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":10.3885939,"successTP":30.7621517,"baseTP":25.9910909,"swingPct":78,"successMove":18,"failMove":-60,"yourPoS":97,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":55},{"date":"Sep 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-14","asset":"zipalertinib","indication":"zip_nsclc_ex20","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-14: REZILIENT3 detailed interim data, WCLC Presidential Symposium -- mPFS 14.5 vs 8.5 mo, HR 0.50 (0.34-0.73), p=0.00015; ORR 65% vs 40%; OS 30% mature HR 0.72 (NS); G3+ AEs 87% vs 54%","type":"conference_data","fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":97,"success_apr":97,"severity":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/zipalertinib-plus-chemotherapy-demonstrates-6-month-median-progression-free-survival-benefit-in-rezilient3-phase-3-trial-in-first-line-egfr-exon-20-insertion-mutation-non-small-cell-lung-cancer","failTP":18.3609488,"successTP":30.7621703,"baseTP":25.9910909,"swingPct":40,"successMove":15,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":46},{"date":"Q3 2026 (by Sep 30)","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"cln978","indication":"cln978_ra","title":"CLN-978 multi-dose RA Ph1 OUTRACE topline (additional multi-dose data; Q3 2026 guidance reaffirmed Aug 6 2026 Q2 PR; rolled from 2026-09-15)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/07/3289800/0/en/Cullinan-Therapeutics-Provides-Corporate-Update-and-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":21.9525307,"successTP":28.5977704,"baseTP":25.9910909,"swingPct":18,"successMove":7,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"velinotamig","indication":"veli_sle","title":"CGEM Q4 26 R&D Day NYC -- combined CLN-978 CD19 TCE + Velinotamig BCMA TCE autoimmune progression update","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://investingnews.com/cullinan-therapeutics-to-host-immunology-day-to-showcase-promising-initial-clinical-data-in-autoimmune-diseases-for-cln-978-a-cd19-t-cell-engager-and-velinotamig-a-bcma-t-cell-engager/","_confidence":"high","failTP":25.5033605,"successTP":27.0167233,"baseTP":25.9910909,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":21,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"velinotamig","indication":"veli_sle","title":"Velinotamig BCMA TCE Ph1 multi-dose autoimmune data (refractory SLE/myositis)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2026/02/14/cullinan-therapeutics-tees-up-catalyst-heavy-2026-with-q2-cln-978-data-and-aml-fast-track-momentum.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":24.964119,"successTP":26.7193733,"baseTP":25.9910909,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-05","asset":"cln978","indication":"cln978_sle","title":"ASH 2026 (San Diego) -- CLN-978 CD19xCD3 TCE Ph1 update + Velinotamig BCMA TCE expanded cohort","type":"conference_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CGEM/cullinan-therapeutics-to-present-initial-clinical-data-for-cln-978-xls5ht6zb9n0.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeNote":"Jun 6 2026 EULAR London POS1179 10:15 BST: positive across refractory SLE + difficult-to-treat RA -- remissions reported, robust B cell depletion confirmed in both blood AND tissue (key differentiator vs CAR-T-only depth), favorable safety at initial dose. Sets up CLN-978 as autoimmune TCE platform.","failTP":23.6931344,"successTP":27.8527572,"baseTP":25.9910909,"swingPct":14,"successMove":6,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Feb 27 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-27","asset":"zipalertinib","indication":"zip_nsclc_ex20","title":"Zipalertinib 2L EGFR ex20ins NSCLC FDA PDUFA action date","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001789972/000119312526210290/cgem-ex99_1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.740428,"successTP":30.9835429,"baseTP":25.9910909,"swingPct":74,"successMove":19,"failMove":-55,"yourPoS":97,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":55}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":36.85},"readouts":[{"a":"cln978","ind":"cln978_ra","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","endpoint":"acr20_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":61.2003947,"lo":34.2314784,"hi":83.1206821,"pBeatBest":0.4004,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 15mg","bestValue":64},{"a":"velinotamig","ind":"veli_sle","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.621824,"lo":-15,"hi":56.4670315,"pBeatBest":0.08255,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"cln978","ind":"cln978_sle","ds":"2026-12-05","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":6.15912916,"lo":-15,"hi":46.7769952,"pBeatBest":0.0331,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"zipalertinib","ind":"zip_nsclc_ex20","ds":"2026-08-12","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":19.2472553,"lo":5.8380017,"hi":32.9498611,"pBeatBest":0.1889,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5},{"a":"zipalertinib","ind":"zip_nsclc_ex20","ds":"2026-09-14","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":19.2640286,"lo":5.37013776,"hi":33.4495283,"pBeatBest":0.19795,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5}]},"CGON":{"name":"CG Oncology, Inc.","subtitle":"Bladder cancer oncolytic immunotherapy | Creto Ph3 BOND-003 24mo CR 41.8%; rolling BLA Q4'26 (HR BCG-unresp CIS) | PIVOT-006 IR topline SLIPPED past the guided 1H'26, still pending | $1.1B cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":88.01,"netCashLocal":1028,"cashPS":11.6805,"tps":{"mega_bear":13.06,"bear":17.31,"base":21.57,"bull":25.82,"psychedelic_bull":33.42},"weightedTP":22.16,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.adenovirus.oncolytic_intravesical","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.adenovirus"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":45,"totalTAM":12.94875,"totalWTD":8.92212038},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 16, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-16","asset":"cretostimogene_cis","indication":"creto_hr_cis","title":"REPORTED (Q1'26): BOND-003 durability updates -- Cohort C 24mo CR 41.8%; supports creto CIS franchise (already reflected at pos 92 base); Cohort P + CORE-008 Cohort A reads during 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":93,"_source":"CGON Q1'26 PR (May 2026)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"AUA 2026 (May 16-19, Las Vegas) + SES-AUA 2026: BOND-003 Cohort C 24mo CR 41.8% confirmed (46 CRs), 96.6% MIBC-progression-free at 24mo, no Grade 3+ TRAEs; Cohort P early signal positive; CORE-008 Cohort CX (creto+gem combination) first results presented. Best-in-disease durability profile maintained ahead of BLA Q4 2025 submission.","_outcomeSource":"https://ir.cgoncology.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cg-oncology-continues-demonstrate-best-disease-durability-and","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":19.7895694,"successTP":23.3886766,"baseTP":22.1623564,"swingPct":17,"successMove":6,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"May 16 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-16","asset":"cretostimogene_papillary","indication":"creto_hr_papillary","title":"REPORTED (2026-05-15, success): CORE-008 Cohort CX FIRST RESULTS POSITIVE (creto + gemcitabine, HR BCG-exposed/unresponsive NMIBC) -- encouraging HG-EFS, high CR, well-tolerated -> creto_hr_papillary pos 60->70 base","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":82,"_source":"CG Oncology Q1'26 PR + UroToday AUA 2026 program","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"POSITIVE first results: CORE-008 Cohort CX (cretostimogene + gemcitabine in HR BCG-exposed/unresponsive NMIBC) showed 85.7% CR ITT (92.3% efficacy evaluable) at AUA SUO May 16 2026 podium.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/05/15/tmt-newswire/globenewswire/cg-oncology-reports-positive-first-results-from-core008-cohort-cx-phase-2-trial","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":21.1961238,"successTP":22.3851007,"baseTP":22.1623564,"swingPct":5,"successMove":1,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"cretostimogene_cis","indication":"creto_hr_cis","title":"Cretostimogene BLA completion (HR BCG-unresponsive NMIBC CIS); FDA target H2 2027","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"CGON FY25 PR + Q1'26 update","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.9970595,"successTP":24.8165848,"baseTP":22.1623564,"swingPct":9,"successMove":6,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cretostimogene_ir","indication":"creto_ir_nmibc","title":"Cretostimogene PIVOT-006 Phase 3 topline (Intermediate-risk NMIBC) -- ROLLED from Q3: still unreported; mgmt 'very near term', no date (Cantor Sep 9 2026; Q2 8-K Aug 6: vast majority of target events accrued)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"CGON FY25 PR (Feb 2026)","_confidence":"high","_note":"Freshness check 2026-08-18: company guided 1H 2026 topline (PR 2026-01-09, \"nearly one year ahead of schedule\" on fast enrolment across 90+ sites). No readout announced as of Aug 18 2026 -- treated as a slip, catalyst left at Q3 2026 with no assumption change. Escalate if still silent at the next pass.","failTP":20.2828413,"successTP":22.7787607,"baseTP":22.1623564,"swingPct":11,"successMove":3,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"cretostimogene_cis","indication":"creto_hr_cis","title":"Cretostimogene PDUFA decision HR BCG-unresp CIS NMIBC (post Q4'26 BLA)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"CGON guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":17.2890169,"successTP":23.3519339,"baseTP":22.1623564,"swingPct":14,"successMove":3,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":31.72},"readouts":[{"a":"cretostimogene_cis","ind":"creto_hr_cis","ds":"2026-05-16","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","endpoint":"cr_rate_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":62.5639363,"lo":15.7234751,"hi":98.4574748,"pBeatBest":0.14195,"bestDrug":"TAR-200 (gemcitabine RS)","bestValue":82.4},{"a":"cretostimogene_ir","ind":"creto_ir_nmibc","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","endpoint":"cr_rate_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":57.2399978,"lo":9.75863513,"hi":96.6275009,"pBeatBest":0.11295,"bestDrug":"TAR-200 (gemcitabine RS)","bestValue":82.4},{"a":"cretostimogene_papillary","ind":"creto_hr_papillary","ds":"2026-05-16","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","endpoint":"cr_rate_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":63.8700154,"lo":21.6770934,"hi":99.791052,"pBeatBest":0.15865,"bestDrug":"TAR-200 (gemcitabine RS)","bestValue":82.4}]},"CHIESI":{"name":"Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A. (private; Chiesi family)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- Italian family-owned (Chiesi family; Parma 1935) | FY24 ~EUR 3.2B Air Solutions + Rare Diseases + Care | Foster (beclomethasone) + Trimbow respiratory","currency":"EUR","country":"IT","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory.neonatal.preterm_rds","respiratory.neonatal","dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","dermatology","dermatology.genodermatosis","endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","metabolic_genetic.adipose.lipodystrophy","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.adipose","cardio_metabolic.lipids.hofh","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.alpha_mannosidosis","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","respiratory.genetic","immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","immunology","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["small_molecule.combination.ics_laba_lama","small_molecule","small_molecule.combination","small_molecule.combination.ics_laba","biological_extract.surfactant.porcine_natural","biological_extract","biological_extract.surfactant","biological_extract.botanical.betulin_topical","biological_extract.botanical","peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin.oral","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.leptin_analog","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","small_molecule.transporter.mtp_inhibitor","small_molecule.transporter","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.alpha_mannosidase","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","small_molecule.enzyme.pde4_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.osmotic.sugar_alcohol","small_molecule.osmotic","small_molecule.gpcr.adenosine_a2a_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.enzyme.plasma_kallikrein"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":88},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":75},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":62},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":30},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.neonatal.preterm_rds","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.hofh","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.neonatal","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose.lipodystrophy","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.alpha_mannosidosis","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose","purity":0},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":74},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":72},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":70},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":34},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.neonatal.preterm_rds","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.hofh","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.neonatal","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose.lipodystrophy","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.alpha_mannosidosis","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":80},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":57},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":34},{"area":"respiratory.neonatal.preterm_rds","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":23},{"area":"respiratory.neonatal","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":11},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose.lipodystrophy","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.alpha_mannosidosis","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.hofh","purity":4},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":3},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.adipose","purity":3},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":1},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":20,"rarePurityWtd":22,"optionality":13,"totalTAM":111.69395,"totalWTD":98.90195},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":2459},"CHRS":{"name":"Coherus Oncology, Inc.","subtitle":"Pure-play IO (rebranded Coherus Oncology 2025) | Loqtorzi (toripalimab US, NPC) 40.8M FY25 +113% | Casdozokitug HCC Ph2 (CR 17.2%) | Cash 105M Jun26 | BioSim CVR dividend Oct 7 26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":154.5,"netCashLocal":68.1,"cashPS":0.4408,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.9,"bear":1.67,"base":2.94,"bull":5.73,"psychedelic_bull":10.64},"weightedTP":2.85,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.npc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.gi","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il27","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ccr8","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ilt4"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":167},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":12,"rarePurityWtd":7,"optionality":49,"totalTAM":56.2723,"totalWTD":37.6622568},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 28 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-28","asset":"loqtorzi","indication":"npc_io","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-28: 50M USD ATM sales agreement with Leerink Partners established (no shares sold at signing) -- incremental dilution capacity on top of the 172M USD cash position","type":"other","binary":false,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Capacity only, not a completed raise: no cash or sharesOut change applied. Flagged as a dilution watch item against the Q4'26 casdozokitug / CHS-114 readouts.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"Coherus Oncology 8-K 2026-08-28 (chrs-20260828x8k.htm)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001512762/000110465926103316/chrs-20260828x8k.htm","failTP":0.671308753,"successTP":2.6181991,"baseTP":2.85305878,"swingPct":34,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"Oct 7 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-07","asset":"loqtorzi","indication":"npc_io","title":"Biosimilar CVR special dividend distribution (record date Sep 30 2026, distribution Oct 7 2026): one CVR per share on net cash proceeds from the remaining Legacy BioSim assets, CVR term Oct 7 2026 - Oct 7 2028; completes the pure-play oncology transition","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"Coherus Oncology PR 2026-08-17 (GlobeNewswire) + 8-K 2026-08-17","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/17/3346515/0/en/coherus-oncology-announces-special-dividend-of-biosimilar-contingent-value-rights.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.671308753,"successTP":2.6181991,"baseTP":2.85305878,"swingPct":34,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"chs_114","indication":"hnscc_ccr8","title":"CHS-114 / tagmokitug (anti-CCR8) + toripalimab Ph1b HNSCC dose-opt data, plus ESCC and 4L+ CRC initial data (KEY CATALYST) -- company projects October 2026 public disclosure of mature data sets (Q2'26 report)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":80,"_note":"Phase 1b CHS-114 + toripalimab dose-optimization (2L HNSCC / 2L gastric) guided to initial readouts 1H 2026 with a Phase 2 dose recommendation by early 2026 (Project Optimus). As of 2026-07-06 only AACR 2025 dose-expansion and SITC 2025 biomarker data confirmed; no dedicated 1H 2026 dose-opt topline PR located. Status unconfirmed; date rolled ~1 quarter.","_source":"https://investors.coherus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/coherus-presents-promising-early-clinical-data-phase-1-dose","_confidence":"low","failTP":2.80719218,"successTP":2.89336754,"baseTP":2.85305878,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"loqtorzi","indication":"nsclc_io","title":"Loqtorzi NSCLC + ESCC label-expansion ramp; FY26 guide CORRECTED to $57-62M (company-issued Aug 5 2026; the $60-80M previously carried here was too high). H1'26 actual $25.4M (Q1 $11.8M + Q2 $13.6M, +37% YoY), guided on ~10-15% average sequential quarterly growth","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Coherus Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-05 (globenewswire 3339772) + Q2 2026 earnings call","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.68243747,"successTP":3.00857615,"baseTP":2.85305878,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"casdozokitug","indication":"hcc_casdozo","title":"Casdozokitug + toripalimab + bev randomized Ph2 in 1L uHCC -- FIRST data readout pulled into Q4 2026 (NCT06679985, ~72 pts; enrolment completed Mar 2026, ~half of patients had 3 scans as of Aug 2026; ctDNA + baseline IL-27 analyses ongoing). NOT pivotal Ph3","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Coherus Q2 2026 PR + earnings call 2026-08-05","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.79481869,"successTP":2.91410023,"baseTP":2.85305878,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":41,"lenses":{"comparable":3.36},"readouts":[{"a":"casdozokitug","ind":"hcc_casdozo","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"oncology.gi.hcc","endpoint":"mos_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":15.222672,"lo":6.28173586,"hi":21.9416612,"pBeatBest":0.12855,"bestDrug":"atezolizumab + bevacizumab","bestValue":19.2}]},"CIPLA":{"name":"Cipla Ltd.","subtitle":"Indian respiratory + complex generics | gAdvair Diskus US FDA APPROVED Jul28'26 (all 3 strengths, launch Q2 FY27) | Q1 FY27 record rev INR 7,119cr, PAT -39% on NA base; FY27 margin guide held","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":808,"netCashLocal":94940,"cashPS":117.5,"tps":{"mega_bear":1084.34,"bear":1454.15,"base":1860.28,"bull":2803.16,"psychedelic_bull":4327.92},"weightedTP":2052.44,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.cipla_cipla_one_india_other","_established_products","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","_established_products.cipla_cipla_north_america_other","_established_products.cipla_cipla_south_africa_other","_established_products.cipla_cipla_em_other","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.cipla_cipla_eu_api_other","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin.lanreotide","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.laba_ics_combo","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.protein_degrader.cereblon_imid","small_molecule.protein_degrader"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":78},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":39},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":25},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":21},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_one_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_north_america_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_south_africa_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_eu_api_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":79},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":39},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":25},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":20},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_one_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_north_america_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_south_africa_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_eu_api_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":154},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_one_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_north_america_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_south_africa_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.cipla_cipla_eu_api_other","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1001.7883,"totalWTD":1000.10106},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 28, 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-28","asset":"g_advair","indication":"asthma_copd","title":"REPORTED: gAdvair Diskus US FDA APPROVAL GRANTED Jul 28 2026 -- ANDA approved in ALL THREE strengths (100/50, 250/50, 500/50 mcg fluticasone propionate + salmeterol inhalation powder); launch slated Q2 FY2026-27","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Cipla Q4FY25 concall","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Approval granted, resolving the long-pending CRL. pos/apr moved to the pre-declared success_pos/success_apr (95/95 base). Remaining risk is commercial (Hikma and other generics also approved/launched), not regulatory -- reflected in pen, not pos.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cipla-receives-us-fda-approval-for-generic-advair-diskus-302836071.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":2052.42366,"successTP":2052.4445,"baseTP":2052.43826,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"cipla_north_america","indication":"cipla_north_america_outpatient_generic","title":"gAbraxane US launch","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Cipla FY25 AR","_confidence":"high","failTP":2052.43826,"successTP":2052.43826,"baseTP":2052.43826,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3277,"lenses":{"comparable":1300.55,"eeRel":0.6832,"peRel":0.9311}},"CLDX":{"name":"Celldex Therapeutics","subtitle":"Barzolvolimab anti-KIT mast-cell depleter: EMBARQ-CSU1/2 Ph3 enrollment complete Feb'26 (1939 pts) -- TOPLINE Q4'26 + BLA 2027; EMBARQ-ColdU/SD enrolling; Ph2 PN+AD; cash $451.5M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":78.49,"netCashLocal":451.5,"cashPS":5.7523,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.71,"bear":7.61,"base":12.81,"bull":17.7,"psychedelic_bull":21.62},"weightedTP":12.92,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cindu","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_kit","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":81},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":76},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cindu","purity":43}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":110},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cindu","purity":36}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":69},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cindu","purity":69},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":62}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":84,"totalTAM":10.614,"totalWTD":5.76412875},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"barzolvolimab","indication":"barz_csu","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-22 (HIT): Barzolvolimab EMBARQ-CSU1 + EMBARQ-CSU2 Ph3 topline (CSU; 1939 pts; Wk12 UAS) -- both trials met primary UAS7 wk12 + ALL key secondaries at both doses; efficacy sustained/deepened wk12->24; omalizumab-refractory benefit; well tolerated","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/25/3244485/24180/en/Celldex-Completes-Enrollment-in-Global-Phase-3-Studies-EMBARQ-CSU1-and-EMBARQ-CSU2-of-Barzolvolimab-in-Chronic-Spontaneous-Urticaria.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.56147199,"successTP":14.091471,"baseTP":12.9226897,"swingPct":35,"successMove":9,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"barzolvolimab","indication":"barz_pn","title":"Barzolvolimab Ph2 prurigo nodularis topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://ir.celldex.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.4460024,"successTP":14.8456565,"baseTP":12.9226897,"swingPct":34,"successMove":15,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"barzolvolimab","indication":"barz_csu","title":"Barzolvolimab CSU BLA submission (post-EMBARQ Ph3 topline)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/25/3244485/24180/en/Celldex-Completes-Enrollment-in-Global-Phase-3-Studies-EMBARQ-CSU1-and-EMBARQ-CSU2-of-Barzolvolimab-in-Chronic-Spontaneous-Urticaria.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.1521343,"successTP":14.0750949,"baseTP":12.9226897,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":79,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"barzolvolimab","indication":"barz_coldu","title":"Barzolvolimab EMBARQ-ColdU/SD Ph3 topline (cold urticaria + dermographism)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://ir.celldex.com/news-releases/news-release-details/celldex-initiates-global-registrational-phase-3-program","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.0081551,"successTP":15.2913432,"baseTP":12.9226897,"swingPct":41,"successMove":18,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"Q2 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-15","asset":"barzolvolimab","indication":"barz_csu","title":"Barzolvolimab CSU PDUFA decision (post-BLA submission)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.29836875,"successTP":14.3527049,"baseTP":12.9226897,"swingPct":39,"successMove":11,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"Q3 2028","dateSort":"2028-09-30","asset":"barzolvolimab","indication":"barz_csu","title":"Barzolvolimab CSU EU MAA decision (EMA opinion)","type":"ema_approval","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":9.24393359,"successTP":10.8571527,"baseTP":12.9226897,"swingPct":11,"successMove":-14,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"Q1 2029","dateSort":"2029-03-31","asset":"barzolvolimab","indication":"barz_coldu","title":"Barzolvolimab CINDU PDUFA decision (post-EMBARQ-ColdU/SD)","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":9.44336944,"successTP":10.6395464,"baseTP":12.9226897,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-18,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":-21,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":17.06}},"CLYM":{"name":"Climb Bio","subtitle":"Climb Bio - Budoprutug (anti-CD19) pMN: FDA Fast Track Apr'26; PrisMN Ph2 initial data H2'26; ITP Ph1b/2a >90% B-cell depletion (EHA'26) - CLYM116 anti-APRIL Ph1 HIT Sep'26, Q12W IgAN, Ph2 H1'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":79.98,"netCashLocal":239.2,"cashPS":2.9907,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.39,"bear":2.84,"base":6.48,"bull":11.14,"psychedelic_bull":18.04},"weightedTP":6.75,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.pmn","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd19","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_april"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":91},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":50},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":45},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":38},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":35},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":21},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":19}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":65},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":52},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":49},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":46},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":40},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":25},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":23}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":86},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":62},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":56},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":38},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":10}],"phase":"phase2","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":55,"rarePurityWtd":75,"optionality":266,"totalTAM":27.176,"totalWTD":7.4220835},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-03","asset":"clym116","indication":"igan","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-03: CLYM116 Ph1 PK/PD HIT -- ~29-day half-life, >90% free APRIL suppression (single 320mg), 60-75% IgA reduction sustained to wk12, no SAEs/DLTs (n=46 HV); supports Q12W dosing","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":64,"_source":"Climb Bio 8-K + PR 2026-09-03 (Item 7.01, Ex-99.1)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1768446/000119312526381060/d97033dex991.htm","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Anti-APRIL Ph1 dosing through 2026; PK/PD likely H1 2027","_note":"RESOLVED early (guided H1 2027, delivered Sep 3 2026) -- HIT. RESTATED 2026-09-03 (second pass, user-authorised): the originally authored success_pos 35 / success_apr 45 were BELOW the config's own base assumption of 42/58, which made them useless as a resolution target and forced the first pass to improvise a bounded upgrade. They have been rewritten to the values the readout actually justifies (55/64), which is where base now sits, so the record is self-consistent: a clean Ph1 PK/PD hit supporting Q12W dosing moves an anti-APRIL programme from \"target engagement unproven\" to \"engagement and dosing interval proven, IgAN efficacy still unproven\". The stale floors are the lesson here -- authored floors must be checked against the live assumption whenever a catalyst is written.","failTP":5.38853448,"successTP":7.41052901,"baseTP":6.75335123,"swingPct":21,"successMove":7,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"budoprutug","indication":"pmn","title":"PrisMN Phase 2 initial data (budoprutug pMN, low-dose cohort) at a medical meeting -- company guides Q4 2026 (rolled from Q3)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"Climb Bio PR 2026-04-07 (globenewswire 3268966); Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-06 (globenewswire 3340085)","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.climbbio.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guided initial PrisMN Ph2 data H2 2026","_note":"FDA granted Fast Track for budoprutug in pMN on 2026-04-07, supported by the open-label Ph1b (durable B-cell depletion, rapid anti-PLA2R reduction, clinical remission). Fast Track is a process designation, not efficacy, so no pos/apr change was applied. As of the Q2 2026 update (Aug 6 2026) PrisMN is still enrolling with initial data guided H2 2026.","failTP":3.79332806,"successTP":8.47241146,"baseTP":6.75335123,"swingPct":69,"successMove":25,"failMove":-44,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"budoprutug","indication":"itp","title":"Budoprutug Ph1b/2a ITP interim","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.climbbio.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company indicated multiple readouts across budoprutug indications in 2026","failTP":4.8859081,"successTP":7.95517197,"baseTP":6.75335123,"swingPct":46,"successMove":18,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"clym116","indication":"igan","title":"CLYM116 NAVIGATE-2 Ph2 IgAN initial data (proteinuria); Ph3 start guided 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_source":"Climb Bio PR 2026-09-03","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.climbbio.com/","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guided initial NAVIGATE-2 Ph2 results H1 2027 and Ph3 initiation 2027 in the Sep 3 2026 Ph1 release","failTP":5.49154537,"successTP":7.67963674,"baseTP":6.75335123,"swingPct":33,"successMove":14,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":14.36},"readouts":[{"a":"clym116","ind":"igan","ds":"2026-09-03","area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","endpoint":"proteinuria_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":38.9548412,"lo":6.3638233,"hi":63.6819354,"pBeatBest":0.1861,"bestDrug":"sibeprenlimab","bestValue":50.2},{"a":"clym116","ind":"igan","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","endpoint":"proteinuria_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":38.8822598,"lo":8.89798196,"hi":57.3578897,"pBeatBest":0.11725,"bestDrug":"sibeprenlimab","bestValue":50.2}]},"CMPS":{"name":"COMPASS Pathways plc","subtitle":"COMP360 psilocybin TRD: Ph3 COMP005+COMP006 BOTH POSITIVE (MADRS -3.6/-3.8 wk6) - 26-wk durability CONFIRMED Jul26 - rolling NDA Q426 + CNPV - $466M cash to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":110,"netCashLocal":466,"cashPS":4.2364,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.3,"bear":18.48,"base":33.66,"bull":46.13,"psychedelic_bull":59.77},"weightedTP":35.64,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.ptsd","cns.psychiatry.eating_disorders.anorexia","cns.psychiatry.eating_disorders","cns.psychiatry.bipolar"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.psychedelic_tryptamine_dmt","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":60},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.ptsd","purity":49},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.eating_disorders.anorexia","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.eating_disorders","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":80},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":80},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.ptsd","purity":28},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.eating_disorders.anorexia","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.eating_disorders","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":89},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":89},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.ptsd","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":4},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.eating_disorders.anorexia","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.eating_disorders","purity":1}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":6,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":158,"totalTAM":31.09,"totalWTD":12.02842},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2025","dateSort":"2025-11-30","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_trd","title":"REPORTED: COMP005 Phase 3 TRD primary endpoint POSITIVE (MADRS reduction stat sig vs placebo; first-ever Ph3 positive psilocybin in major depression class)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"COMPASS IR Q4 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"COMP005 hit primary endpoint with statistically significant + clinically meaningful MADRS reduction at week 6. Historic first Ph3 positive psilocybin in TRD.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":8.75871928,"successTP":44.2284615,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":99,"successMove":24,"failMove":-75,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":78},{"date":"Jan 2026","dateSort":"2026-01-15","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_ptsd","title":"REPORTED: FDA accepts IND application for COMP360 PTSD (enables initiation of late-stage trial)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":55,"_source":"COMPASS IR Jan 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"IND acceptance clears regulatory path for COMP360 PTSD Ph2b/3 trial initiation. Builds on Ph2 open-label data showing rapid + durable symptom improvement to 12 weeks.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":33.4528867,"successTP":36.9670968,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q1 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-15","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_trd","title":"REPORTED: COMP006 Phase 3 TRD primary endpoint POSITIVE (3-arm 25mg/10mg/1mg; MADRS Δ -3.8 vs 1mg active control p<0.001) -- TWO POSITIVE Ph3s = NDA-supportive","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"COMPASS IR Q1 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"COMP006 confirmed COMP005 -- two positive Ph3 trials = robust NDA-supportive package. Differentiated profile vs SSRI/SNRI antidepressants.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":10.9983015,"successTP":45.8233725,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":98,"successMove":29,"failMove":-69,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":78},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_trd","title":"REPORTED: COMP360 TRD CNPV (Commissioner's National Priority Voucher) GRANTED -- shortens post-filing review timeline; rolling NDA already underway","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":92,"fail_apr":94,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"_source":"COMPASS IR + FDA","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"CNPV is a rare FDA designation accelerating post-filing review. Combined with rolling NDA submission already in progress, materially compresses TRD launch timeline.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":25.7125659,"successTP":44.7407741,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":27,"successMove":13,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":79,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":39},{"date":"Jul 7 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-07","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_trd","title":"REPORTED (2026-07-07, success): COMP006 26-week durability POSITIVE -- response maintained through wk26; ~30% of wk6 responders remitted after retreatment; closes out Ph3 program, rolling NDA on track Q4'26","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://ir.compasspathways.com/files/doc_events/2026/Jul/Phase-3-006-data-webcast-presentation-7-July-26.pdf","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"COMP006 Part B (weeks 9-26) durability confirmed: Week-6 benefit maintained through Week 26 on average; ~30% of responders achieved remission after retreatment. Final Ph3 clinical risk (durability) now de-risked; only regulatory/launch risk remains. Stock -6% on modest effect magnitude (in-line, not a beat) -- apr nudged to pre-declared success value (90), pos held at 88.","_note":"Original catalyst was dated 2026-08-15 (Early Q3); data came early 2026-07-07. This is the 26-week durability follow-on to COMP006, whose PRIMARY 6-week endpoint already resolved 2026-02-17 (separate REPORTED catalyst). Confirmatory de-risking, not a new primary readout.","failTP":9.17220981,"successTP":43.707392,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":97,"successMove":23,"failMove":-74,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":78},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-09","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_trd","title":"REPORTED (2026-09-09, success): COMP005 Part C 52-week open-label topline -- an additional 25mg COMP360 dose extended durability to 1 year; mean 13-point MADRS reduction from baseline at Wk52 in the 25mg-randomised arm redosed; ~70% of participants continued past Wk26 into Part C","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":97,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/compass-pathways-new-52-week-topline-open-label-data-from-phase-3-comp005-trial-demonstrates-additional-benefit-from-another-comp360-dose-in-part-c-extending-durability-out-to-1-year","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.8311631,"successTP":45.5475139,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":61,"successMove":28,"failMove":-33,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":21,"daysOut":null,"materiality":78},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_trd","title":"COMP360 TRD NDA submission completion (rolling) — CNPV awarded for accelerated review","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/compass-pathways-eyes-rolling-fda-082816500.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.3729404,"successTP":45.0096874,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":14,"successMove":5,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":79,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_anorexia","title":"COMP360 anorexia nervosa Ph2 readout (potential first-in-class for AN)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://ir.compasspathways.com/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":35.0829569,"successTP":36.554937,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_trd","title":"COMP360 TRD PDUFA decision (10mo standard / accelerated via CNPV)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/psychedelic-fda-awards-compass-pathways-priority-review-voucher-thefly-news","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.82852371,"successTP":45.2786006,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":105,"successMove":27,"failMove":-78,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":78},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-11-30","asset":"comp360","indication":"comp360_ptsd","title":"COMP360 PTSD Ph2b/3 interim readout (post Q1'26 IND acceptance)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/fda-accepts-investigational-new-drug-application-for-comp360-for-ptsd","_confidence":"medium","failTP":32.449842,"successTP":38.6280056,"baseTP":35.6434697,"swingPct":17,"successMove":8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":35.55}},"CMPX":{"name":"Compass Therapeutics","subtitle":"Tovecimig DLL4xVEGF-A: COMPANION-002 BTC 2L HIT ORR 17.1% vs 5.3% + PFS HR 0.44 but MISSED OS (HR 1.05); FDA Type B meeting guided Aug'26, outcome undisclosed; ODD + Fast Track","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":180.09,"netCashLocal":195,"cashPS":1.0828,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.81,"bear":1.06,"base":1.25,"bull":2.15,"psychedelic_bull":2.75},"weightedTP":1.39,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology","oncology.gi"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.dll4_vegf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":304,"totalTAM":1.5221,"totalWTD":0.37671975},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"tovecimig","indication":"tov_btc","title":"Tovecimig BLA submission 2L BTC (post-COMPANION-002 primary endpoint hit) -- AT RISK: FDA (Sep 22 2026) recommended a survival-benefit trial BEFORE BLA; Compass disagrees and still prepares BLA","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://investors.compasstherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tovecimig-ctx-009-meets-primary-endpoint-ongoing-randomized","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.14881529,"successTP":2.20289232,"baseTP":1.39310939,"swingPct":15,"successMove":12,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"tovecimig","indication":"tov_btc","title":"Tovecimig FDA PDUFA decision 2L BTC","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://investors.compasstherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tovecimig-ctx-009-meets-primary-endpoint-ongoing-randomized","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.04287083,"successTP":2.36136663,"baseTP":1.39310939,"swingPct":95,"successMove":70,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":27,"daysOut":null,"materiality":40}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.44}},"CNTX":{"name":"Context Therapeutics Inc.","subtitle":"CTIM-76 CLDN6xCD3 TCE: Ph1 PoC POSITIVE Jun'26 (29% ORR plat-resistant ovarian, G1 CRS) -> Q3W expansion H2'26; CT-95 MSLNxCD3 Ph1; CT-202 IND H2'26 | $54M cash (~at cash)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":91.88,"netCashLocal":54.5,"cashPS":0.5932,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.17,"bear":0.33,"base":0.75,"bull":1.51,"psychedelic_bull":2.56},"weightedTP":0.7,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.cldn6_cd3","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.msln_cd3"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":101},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":49},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":10}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":545,"totalTAM":25.3765,"totalWTD":3.93589515},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 15 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-15","asset":"ctim76","indication":"ctim76_ovarian","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-15: CTIM-76 Ph1a interim POSITIVE: 29% ORR / 57% DCR in platinum-resistant ovarian (median 7 prior lines, high prior ADC), CRS Grade 1 only (11%); Q3W dosing planned H2 26 (small-n interim; base pos held 40 pending expansion)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"May 29 2026 cutoff: 29% ORR, 57% DCR at 140-280ug in heavily pretreated PROC; mild reversible AEs (G1 CRS 11%) -- genuine TCE PoC in solid tumors.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/15/3311621/0/en/Context-Therapeutics-Announces-Positive-Interim-Efficacy-and-Safety-Results-from-Ongoing-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial-for-CTIM-76.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":0.602038426,"successTP":0.803779166,"baseTP":0.704308494,"swingPct":20,"successMove":10,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"ct95","indication":"ct95_solid","title":"CT-95 MSLN+ solid Ph1a interim","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.324967968,"successTP":1.1549971,"baseTP":0.704308494,"swingPct":83,"successMove":45,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"ct95","indication":"ct95_solid","title":"CT-202 third TCE IND / FIH","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.302777572,"successTP":0.580637032,"baseTP":0.704308494,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":16,"expectedReturn":-10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"ctim76","indication":"ctim76_ovarian","title":"CTIM-76 Q3W dose-expansion / registrational-enabling ovarian data (post-PoC)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":42,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":68,"_source":"CNTX Jun 15 2026 PR (Q3W expansion H2 26)","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.62716281,"successTP":0.842868296,"baseTP":0.704308494,"swingPct":22,"successMove":14,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.74},"readouts":[{"a":"ctim76","ind":"ctim76_ovarian","ds":"2026-06-15","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":21.2042823,"lo":0,"hi":49.7887502,"pBeatBest":0.3371,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3},{"a":"ctim76","ind":"ctim76_ovarian","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":20.9817796,"lo":0,"hi":49.8038196,"pBeatBest":0.33445,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3}]},"COAG":{"name":"Hemab Therapeutics Holdings","subtitle":"Sutacimig bispecific Ph2 Glanzmann 87% bleed reduction + FDA BTD Mar'26; Ph3 H2'26; HMB-002 anti-vWF Ph1; IPO May'26; cash $480M; MCap $1.27B","currency":"USD","country":"DK","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":46.7,"netCashLocal":480,"cashPS":10.2784,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.66,"bear":18.19,"base":27.96,"bull":37.2,"psychedelic_bull":44.14},"weightedTP":27.24,"meta":{"areas":["hematology.hemostasis.glanzmann_thrombasthenia","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","hematology.hemostasis.factor_vii_deficiency","hematology.hemostasis.vwd"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.fviia_tfpi_bridging","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_vwf","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":100},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":90},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.glanzmann_thrombasthenia","purity":76},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.factor_vii_deficiency","purity":34}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.glanzmann_thrombasthenia","purity":140},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":100},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.factor_vii_deficiency","purity":35},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":26}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.glanzmann_thrombasthenia","purity":169},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":100},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.factor_vii_deficiency","purity":26},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":5}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":156,"totalTAM":3.4626,"totalWTD":1.35346536},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"sutacimig","indication":"suta_glanzmann","title":"Sutacimig Ph3 pivotal initiation Glanzmann thrombasthenia (FDA BTD)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.hemab.com/news-items/hemab-therapeutics-announces-positive-complete-phase-2-data-for-sutacimig-in-glanzmann-thrombasthenia-at-ash-2025-plans-to-advance-to-pivotal-phase-3-study","_confidence":"high","failTP":19.0481517,"successTP":33.8406269,"baseTP":27.23947,"swingPct":16,"successMove":7,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":90.58}},"COGT":{"name":"Cogent Biosciences","subtitle":"Bezuclastinib KIT D816V TKI TRIPLE NDA: SUMMIT NonAdvSM PDUFA Dec 30'26 + PEAK GIST PDUFA Nov 30'26 (Priority Review) + APEX AdvSM NDA filed Jun'26 (89% BM resp); cash $866M to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":170.87,"netCashLocal":866.4,"cashPS":5.0705,"tps":{"mega_bear":9.05,"bear":22.1,"base":28.48,"bull":32.8,"psychedelic_bull":36.32},"weightedTP":28.15,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis.nonadvanced","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis","oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis.advanced","oncology.sarcoma.gist","oncology.sarcoma"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.kit_d816v","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis.nonadvanced","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis.advanced","purity":9}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis.nonadvanced","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis.advanced","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":96},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis","purity":96},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis.nonadvanced","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.gist","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mastocytosis.advanced","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":4}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":11,"totalTAM":6.55125,"totalWTD":5.92546522},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-30","asset":"bezuclastinib","indication":"bezu_gist","title":"REPORTED: Bezuclastinib + sunitinib PEAK Ph3 GIST detailed data at ASCO 2026 -- positive (mPFS 16.5 vs 9.2 mo, HR 0.50, p<0.0001; ORR 46% vs 26%)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/11/10/3184357/0/en/cogent-biosciences-reports-positive-results-from-bezuclastinib-peak-phase-3-trial-in-gastrointestinal-stromal-tumors-gist.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":27.8225479,"successTP":28.3528129,"baseTP":28.1535132,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-13","asset":"bezuclastinib","indication":"bezu_advsm","title":"REPORTED: Bezuclastinib APEX Ph2 AdvSM detailed data EHA 2026 -- positive (89% BM response confirmed)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":88,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://investors.cogentbio.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","failTP":27.8071608,"successTP":28.8903566,"baseTP":28.1535132,"swingPct":3,"successMove":3,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":71,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"bezuclastinib","indication":"bezu_advsm","title":"REPORTED: Bezuclastinib AdvSM NDA submitted to FDA Jun 30 2026 (3rd bezu submission in 6mo; APEX 89% BM response, 65% ORR mIWG, 12mo OS 87%)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/COGT/cogent-biosciences-announces-submission-of-new-drug-application-nda-i86uu9xumyh1.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":27.5479284,"successTP":28.7427458,"baseTP":28.1535132,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":71,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Nov 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"bezuclastinib","indication":"bezu_gist","title":"Bezuclastinib + sunitinib GIST PDUFA action date (NDA accepted w/ Priority Review May 28 2026; 2L+ GIST)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/28/3302753/0/en/Cogent-Biosciences-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-New-Drug-Application-NDA-with-Priority-Review-for-Bezuclastinib-in-Combination-with-Sunitinib-for-Patients-with-GIST.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":27.3872295,"successTP":28.3560446,"baseTP":28.1535132,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":97,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Dec 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-30","asset":"bezuclastinib","indication":"bezu_nonadvsm","title":"Bezuclastinib NonAdvSM PDUFA action date (SUMMIT Ph3 NDA)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001622229/000119312526205124/cogt-ex99_1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.9863006,"successTP":31.8035694,"baseTP":28.1535132,"swingPct":67,"successMove":13,"failMove":-54,"yourPoS":96,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":74}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":99.92}},"COLL":{"name":"Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.","subtitle":"Specialty pain (Belbuca/Xtampza/Nucynta) + ADHD via Jornay PM + Azstarys (Corium acq closed May'26) | 2026 guide cut to $825-855M (Nucynta AG pricing) | Net debt ~$960M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":32.56,"netCashLocal":-962,"cashPS":-29.5455,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":6.98,"base":18.65,"bull":32.38,"psychedelic_bull":47.94},"weightedTP":20.87,"meta":{"areas":["cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns","cns.pain","cns.psychiatry.adhd","cns.psychiatry"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_partial_agonist_mu","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_full_agonist_mu_abuse_deterrent","small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_mor_nri","small_molecule.transporter.stimulant_methylphenidate_dr","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.transporter.stimulant_serdex_combo"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":128},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":72},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":64},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":36}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":118},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":82},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":59},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":41}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":145},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":73},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":55},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":27}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":13,"totalTAM":27.865,"totalWTD":24.6360313},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"jornay","indication":"jor_adhd","title":"Jornay PM $190-200M FY26 (reaffirmed Q2) + Azstarys $65-75M (raised Q2)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"COLL Q2 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.8668036,"successTP":20.8668036,"baseTP":20.8668036,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jan 2027","dateSort":"2027-01-15","asset":"belbuca","indication":"belb_chronic","title":"Belbuca generic entry (settled with Teva); ~$231M run-rate revenue cliff","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"COLL 10-K","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.8668036,"successTP":20.8668036,"baseTP":20.8668036,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-15","asset":"nucynta","indication":"nuc_chronic","title":"Nucynta generic entry Jul 2027 (Teva settled); ~$141M run-rate franchise cliff","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"COLL 10-K settlement","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.8668036,"successTP":20.8668036,"baseTP":20.8668036,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":52.52,"eeRel":2.9362,"peRel":1.6366}},"COPN":{"name":"Cosmo Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Swiss GI+derm+AI: Winlevi #1 US topical acne + EU + Korea; Breezula clascoterone 5% male AGA Ph3 POSITIVE, US NDA guided early 2027 -- first new hair-loss mechanism in 30y; GI Genius (Medtronic) +211%","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":17.7,"netCashLocal":128,"cashPS":7.2316,"tps":{"mega_bear":25.28,"bear":36.82,"base":48.3,"bull":61.57,"psychedelic_bull":74.61},"weightedTP":47.97,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.aesthetics.androgenetic_alopecia","dermatology.aesthetics","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ar_topical_antiandrogen","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","_diversified.devices.colonoscopy_cade","_diversified","_diversified.devices","_diversified.mixed.gi_specialty","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.androgenetic_alopecia","purity":110},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":55},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":37},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.androgenetic_alopecia","purity":96},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":62},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":48},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":43},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":21}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.androgenetic_alopecia","purity":110},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":69},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":11}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":16,"totalTAM":7.518,"totalWTD":6.475548},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"breezula","indication":"breezula_aga","title":"REPORTED 2026-04 (HIT): clascoterone 5% topical solution Phase III 12-MONTH data in male androgenetic alopecia -- statistically significant continued hair growth on continuous treatment plus positive chronic-use safety; Month-7 switch-to-vehicle arm lost treatment gains","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/292660/","failTP":27.8791164,"successTP":32.745899,"baseTP":47.9717564,"swingPct":10,"successMove":-32,"failMove":-42,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":-33,"daysOut":null,"materiality":37},{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"winlevi","indication":"winlevi_acne","title":"REPORTED: Winlevi (clascoterone) EU launches H1 2026 (post-EMA approval Fall'25)","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"H1 2026 EU launches underway: InfectoPharm launched Winlevi in Austria and Germany (available since 2026-06-01); Glenmark launched across Nordics, Central/Eastern Europe and Spain; Italy (InfectoPharm) slated Sept 2026, Portugal via partner. EC approval was Oct 2025.","_source":"https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/301472/Cosmo-Welcomes-the-Launches-of-WinleviR-in-Austria-and-Germany","_confidence":"high","failTP":46.5412046,"successTP":49.4275876,"baseTP":47.9717564,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"breezula","indication":"breezula_aga","title":"Clascoterone 5% male androgenetic alopecia NDA filing (US) -- Cosmo guides EARLY 2027; MAA preparation in parallel. Would be the first new AGA mechanism in >30 years","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.genengnews.com/topics/translational-medicine/cosmo-pharma-eyes-2027-nda-for-baldness-candidate-after-positive-phase-iii-12-month-data/","failTP":27.8791164,"successTP":32.745899,"baseTP":47.9717564,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-6,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7}],"salesM2025":111,"lenses":{"comparable":78.1}},"CORT":{"name":"Corcept Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Cortisol modulator | Q2'26 rev $256.1M (+32%), FY26 guide RAISED to $1.1-1.2B | Lifyorli $47.6M, positive EU CHMP opinion Sep'26 | Relacorilant Cushing's PDUFA Dec 17'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":108.1,"netCashLocal":544.6,"cashPS":5.0379,"tps":{"mega_bear":34.48,"bear":56.97,"base":90.96,"bull":154.66,"psychedelic_bull":287.61},"weightedTP":103.59,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.pituitary.cushing","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","cns.neurodegeneration.als","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.gr_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":136},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":68},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":34},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":11},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":89},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":70},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":45},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":17},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":164},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":82},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":22},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":21,"rarePurityWtd":48,"optionality":194,"totalTAM":34.978,"totalWTD":11.88607},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"lifyorli","indication":"ovarian_proc","title":"REPORTED 2026-08: Q2'26 revenue $256.1M (+32%) -- Lifyorli $47.6M with >1,300 patients started, Korlym+AG $208.6M; FY26 guidance RAISED to $1.1-1.2B","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CORT/corcept-therapeutics-announces-second-quarter-financial-results-and-jmc55hyk8eai.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Guidance raise plus a strong Lifyorli launch print. Commercial assets already at pos/apr 100, so the factual edit is salesM; the commercialRevM ladder is flagged for the user.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":103.590906,"successTP":103.590906,"baseTP":103.590906,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-04","asset":"relacorilant_cushings","indication":"cushings_rela","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-04: Relacorilant Cushing's NDA RESUBMISSION ACCEPTED post-CRL -- PDUFA set for Dec 17 2026 (the 'path TBD' uncertainty is resolved and the clock is ~6 months earlier than modelled)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CORT/corcept-therapeutics-announces-second-quarter-financial-results-and-jmc55hyk8eai.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Catalyst priced whether and when Corcept could get back on file after the Dec 2025 CRL. Acceptance with a firm PDUFA answers that affirmatively, so the pre-declared success_pos/apr (85/92) were applied. Approval itself is still the Dec 17 2026 PDUFA, now carried as a separate forward binary.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":103.208736,"successTP":103.798164,"baseTP":103.590906,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-18","asset":"lifyorli","indication":"ovarian_proc","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-18: CHMP issued a POSITIVE OPINION recommending EU marketing authorisation for Lifyorli (relacorilant) + nab-paclitaxel in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (ROSELLA PFS+OS); EC decision guided Q4 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001088856/000162828026050607/cort072926ex991pressrelease.htm","failTP":103.590906,"successTP":103.590906,"baseTP":103.590906,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"miricorilant","indication":"mash_miri","title":"Miricorilant MONARCH Ph2b MASH topline (fully enrolled)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":80,"_source":"Corcept pipeline page","_confidence":"medium","failTP":101.044838,"successTP":107.188442,"baseTP":103.590906,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"lifyorli","indication":"ovarian_proc","title":"European Commission decision on Lifyorli (relacorilant) + nab-paclitaxel in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer -- follows the positive CHMP opinion; guided Q4 2026","type":"regulatory","failTP":103.590906,"successTP":103.590906,"baseTP":103.590906,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-17","asset":"relacorilant_cushings","indication":"cushings_rela","title":"Relacorilant (Cushing's syndrome) PDUFA -- Dec 17 2026 action date on the accepted post-CRL resubmission","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CORT/corcept-therapeutics-announces-second-quarter-financial-results-and-jmc55hyk8eai.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":103.208736,"successTP":103.786648,"baseTP":103.590906,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":761,"lenses":{"comparable":44.82,"peRel":0.0869},"readouts":[{"a":"miricorilant","ind":"mash_miri","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":19.3226471,"lo":1.43473248,"hi":51.5112391,"pBeatBest":0.0679,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"COYA":{"name":"Coya Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"COYA 302 (LD IL-2 + abatacept) ALS Ph2 ALSTARS 100/120 enrolled Sep'26, topline early Q2 2027 + FTD/AD extensions | Dr Reddys ex-US/Can ($677M ms) | Cash $43M, runway 2H27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":23.46,"netCashLocal":43.2,"cashPS":1.8414,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":1.3,"base":6.4,"bull":13.81,"psychedelic_bull":21.69},"weightedTP":6.67,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.als","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il2_low_dose_combo","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il2_low_dose"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":107},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":67},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":25}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":112},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":60},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":28}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":95},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":81},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":24}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":237,"totalTAM":11.14,"totalWTD":3.3035884},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 15, 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"coya302","indication":"coya302_als","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-15: COYA 302 ALSTARS Ph2 ALS enrollment update -- 100 of 120 patients enrolled (8-K Sep 15 2026); full enrollment NOT yet complete (the Jun 2026 event was the blinded-extension start; earlier 'full enrollment' stamp corrected)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Coya announces blinded extension phase of ALSTARS Ph2 ALS trial initiated; first cohort patients transitioning from 24-week placebo-controlled phase, with placebo patients randomized to active treatme","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001835022/000119312526391378/d896544d8k.htm","failTP":1.91783847,"successTP":5.23145416,"baseTP":6.66609025,"swingPct":15,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"Oct 5 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-05","asset":"coya302","indication":"coya302_als","title":"REPORTED 2026-10-05: COYA 302 ALSTARS Ph2 ALS full enrollment (n=120) reached (8-K Oct 5 2026); topline still early Q2 2027","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001835022/000119312526391378/d896544d8k.htm","failTP":1.91783847,"successTP":5.23145416,"baseTP":6.66609025,"swingPct":15,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"coya301","indication":"coya301_ftd","title":"COYA 301 Ph2 FTD/AD trial initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.42072878,"successTP":6.65128286,"baseTP":6.66609025,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Early Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-15","asset":"coya302","indication":"coya302_als","title":"COYA 302 ALSTARS Ph2 ALS TOPLINE (KEY BINARY) -- SLIPPED from Q1 2027 to early Q2 2027 per 8-K Sep 15 2026 (100/120 enrolled)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.02307668,"successTP":10.2872527,"baseTP":6.66609025,"swingPct":124,"successMove":54,"failMove":-70,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":49}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":7.89},"readouts":[{"a":"coya302","ind":"coya302_als","ds":"2027-04-15","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","endpoint":"alsfrs_r_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.40784275,"lo":-1.2905634,"hi":4.19607096,"pBeatBest":0.2261,"bestDrug":"edaravone","bestValue":2.49}]},"CPRX":{"name":"Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (private; wholly-owned by Angelini Pharma since Jul 2026)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- acquired by Angelini Pharma Jul-2026 at $31.50/sh cash (~$4.1B), delisted from Nasdaq | FIRDAPSE (LEMS) + AGAMREE (DMD) + FYCOMPA; FY25 $589M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns","cns.epilepsy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.k_channel_blocker","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.corticosteroid_dissociative","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.ion_channel.ampa_antagonist"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":109},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":71},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":54},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":36},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":109},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":71},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":54},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":36},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":122},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":61},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":38},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":20},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":20},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":20},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":19}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":64,"rarePurityWtd":64,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":12.112,"totalWTD":12.112},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":588},"CRBP":{"name":"Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings","subtitle":"CRB-701 Nectin-4 ADC: cORR 43% OPSCC / 34% cervical; TEMPO-1 registrational Ph3 enrolling Sep'26. CRB-913 CB1i CANYON-1 Ph1b HIT Sep'26 (-5.0% @12wk 60mg, clean CNS); Ph2 1H'27. Cash $118M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":18.671,"netCashLocal":117.9,"cashPS":6.3146,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.67,"bear":5.71,"base":13.56,"bull":20.42,"psychedelic_bull":30.57},"weightedTP":12.42,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.gynecologic.cervical","oncology.gynecologic","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.nectin4_mmae","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload","small_molecule.gpcr.cb1","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":190},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":186},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":93},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":67},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":34},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":28}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":228,"totalTAM":151.2085,"totalWTD":46.1350341},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-14","asset":"crb913","indication":"crb913_obesity","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-14: CANYON-1 Ph1b obesity topline POSITIVE -- 12wk wt loss 2.8/3.3/5.0% at 20/40/60mg vs 0.0% pbo (p<0.0001), no plateau; no serious neuropsych AEs, irritability 6-10%; nausea 15-26%; Ph2 1H 2027","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":48,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://ir.corbuspharma.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/467/corbus-pharmaceuticals-reports-q1-2026-financial-results-and-provides-a-corporate-update","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3360951/0/en/corbus-pharmaceuticals-announces-positive-topline-data-from-canyon-1-study-of-daily-oral-crb-913-for-the-treatment-of-obesity.html","failTP":8.86717042,"successTP":14.4305499,"baseTP":12.423961,"swingPct":31,"successMove":11,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"crb701","indication":"crb701_hnscc_2l","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-29: CRB-701 TEMPO-1 registrational study (2L oropharyngeal SCC, n=250 randomized vs investigator's choice capecitabine/cetuximab/docetaxel; ORR->accelerated, OS->full) -- FIRST PATIENT DOSED","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/29/3370767/0/en/corbus-pharmaceuticals-announces-first-patient-dosed-in-tempo-1-registrational-study-of-crb-701-in-patients-with-2l-oropharyngeal-cancer.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.39515711,"successTP":15.5002905,"baseTP":12.423961,"swingPct":15,"successMove":8,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"crb913","indication":"crb913_obesity","title":"CRB-913 CANYON-1 full data -- ObesityWeek 2026 late-breaker (Nov 14-17) + FDA end-of-Ph1 meeting ahead of 1H 2027 Ph2","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3360951/0/en/corbus-pharmaceuticals-announces-positive-topline-data-from-canyon-1-study-of-daily-oral-crb-913-for-the-treatment-of-obesity.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.72025721,"successTP":11.1097073,"baseTP":12.423961,"swingPct":16,"successMove":-9,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"crb701","indication":"crb701_cervical_2l","title":"CRB-701 2L cervical registrational Phase 3 study initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://ir.corbuspharma.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/463/corbus-pharmaceuticals-announces-broad-alignment-with-fda-on-registration-path-for-crb-701-in-second-line-hnscc-and-cervical-cancer","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.5605276,"successTP":15.012094,"baseTP":12.423961,"swingPct":13,"successMove":6,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"crb701","indication":"crb701_cervical_2l","title":"CRB-701 ASCO Jun 2026 mature data presented (cORR 34.4% r/m cervical; 42.9% OPSCC)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CRBP/corbus-pharmaceuticals-reports-updated-crb-701-phase-1-2-clinical-ev2gwhw065h4.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.5605276,"successTP":15.2562145,"baseTP":12.423961,"swingPct":39,"successMove":20,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"crb701","indication":"crb701_hnscc_2l","title":"CRB-701 r/m HNSCC OPSCC follow-up data (post ASCO 2026 cORR 42.9%) + cervical Ph3 design","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":76,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CRBP/corbus-pharmaceuticals-reports-updated-crb-701-phase-1-2-clinical-ev2gwhw065h4.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.39515711,"successTP":15.8878143,"baseTP":12.423961,"swingPct":44,"successMove":24,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"crb701","indication":"crb701_cervical_2l","title":"CRB-701 cervical Ph3 interim / early efficacy update","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://ir.corbuspharma.com/news-events/press-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.1414389,"successTP":16.2672891,"baseTP":12.423961,"swingPct":65,"successMove":31,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":14.42},"readouts":[{"a":"crb913","ind":"crb913_obesity","ds":"2026-09-14","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.0936288,"lo":2.39923883,"hi":29.4081735,"pBeatBest":0.1323,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"crb913","ind":"crb913_obesity","ds":"2026-11-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":9.78417086,"lo":-1.66860878,"hi":27.6485327,"pBeatBest":0.07195,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"CRBU":{"name":"Caribou Biosciences","subtitle":"Allo CAR-T: vispa-cel ANTLER-3 now an FDA-aligned randomized Ph3 (~250 pts 2L LBCL) | CB-011 dose-expansion data H2'26 | cash $113.8M to end-2027, seeking pivotal capital","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":101,"netCashLocal":113.8,"cashPS":1.1267,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.37,"bear":0.47,"base":0.64,"bull":0.85,"psychedelic_bull":1.08},"weightedTP":0.6,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_cd19","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_bcma"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":23}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":46}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":44}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":229,"totalTAM":5.16255,"totalWTD":1.56914472},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-13","asset":"cb010","indication":"cb010_nhl","title":"REPORTED: Vispa-cel + CB-011 oral presentations at EHA 2026 (Stockholm; ANTLER + CaMMouflage updates)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://investor.cariboubio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/caribou-biosciences-highlight-vispa-cel-and-cb-011-programs","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeNote":"RESOLVED 2026-06-12 (EHA 2026): vispa-cel (CB-010, allo anti-CD19) long-term 2L LBCL median PFS 17.1 months — numerically ahead of Breyanzi (14.8mo) and Yescarta (14.9mo); FDA-aligned ANTLER-3 pivotal Ph3 (~250 CD19-naive 2L LBCL). Positive/success side; pre-pivotal so no scenario pos change.","failTP":0.554335726,"successTP":0.652656722,"baseTP":0.598252075,"swingPct":14,"successMove":8,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cb011","indication":"cb011_mm","title":"CB-011 CaMMouflage Ph1 MM INITIAL DOSE-EXPANSION data (H2 2026) + longer follow-up on the 12-pt dose-escalation cohort","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://investor.cariboubio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/caribou-biosciences-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.500019503,"successTP":0.762961339,"baseTP":0.598252075,"swingPct":31,"successMove":20,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"cb010","indication":"cb010_nhl","title":"Vispa-cel ANTLER-3 randomized Ph3 initiation in 2L LBCL (~250 pts, FDA-aligned) -- only START-UP activities are funded; timing contingent on Caribou raising additional capital","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":72,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://investor.cariboubio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/caribou-biosciences-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial/","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.549460848,"successTP":0.645040594,"baseTP":0.598252075,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"cb010","indication":"cb010_nhl","title":"Vispa-cel NHL pivotal topline / interim","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.cariboubio.com/pipeline/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.509196575,"successTP":0.648810577,"baseTP":0.598252075,"swingPct":23,"successMove":8,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.95},"readouts":[{"a":"cb010","ind":"cb010_nhl","ds":"2026-06-13","area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":51.987016,"lo":13.0474729,"hi":82.6883244,"pBeatBest":0.2491,"bestDrug":"epcoritamab","bestValue":63},{"a":"cb011","ind":"cb011_mm","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.442723,"lo":4.64197713,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.23725,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73},{"a":"cb010","ind":"cb010_nhl","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":48.296293,"lo":10.7503204,"hi":80.3215886,"pBeatBest":0.20175,"bestDrug":"epcoritamab","bestValue":63}]},"CRNX":{"name":"Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (acquired by Vertex; delisted Sep 2026)","subtitle":"ACQUIRED (delisted): Vertex buyout CLOSED Sep1'26 at $85.00/sh all-cash (~$10.0B, ~$8.8B net, no CVR) -- PALSONIFY oral acromegaly (FDA'25, EC Apr'26) + atumelnant Ph3 CAH/Cushing's","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":true,"sharesOut":104.7,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","oncology.neuroendocrine.carcinoid_syndrome","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine","endocrine.adrenal.cah","endocrine.adrenal","endocrine.pituitary.cushing"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.sst2","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.mc2r"],"focus":[{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":72},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.carcinoid_syndrome","purity":52},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":38},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":26},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":17}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":71},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.carcinoid_syndrome","purity":49},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":40},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":36},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":24}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":75},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.carcinoid_syndrome","purity":51},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":46},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":26},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":17}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":46,"totalTAM":10.1285,"totalWTD":6.9242055},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":0},"CRSP":{"name":"CRISPR Therapeutics","subtitle":"Casgevy Q2'26 rev $76M (+78% QoQ, +151% YoY), pediatric approval to age 2 (+~5,500 eligible), 39 countries | $2.36B cash | in vivo CTX310/340/460 all in the clinic | zugo-cel autoimmune + IO","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":108.02,"netCashLocal":2364,"cashPS":21.8848,"tps":{"mega_bear":15.99,"bear":18.85,"base":21.45,"bull":23.71,"psychedelic_bull":27.03},"weightedTP":21.63,"meta":{"areas":["hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","hematology","hematology.hemoglobinopathy","hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9.exvivo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9.invivo","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_cd19_autoimmune","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":72},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":48},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":42},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":36},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":24},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":23},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":21},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":15},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":8},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":7},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":104},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":71},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":38},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":37},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":93},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":58},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":46},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":46},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":19,"rarePurityWtd":72,"optionality":357,"totalTAM":59.4335,"totalWTD":12.9985975},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-02","asset":"casgevy","indication":"scd","title":"REPORTED 2026-08: CASGEVY pediatric label expansion to age 2 approved by FDA (53 days from filing), ~5,500 additional eligible SCD/TDT patients; Q2'26 revenue $76M (+78% QoQ, +151% YoY) across 39 countries","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/crispr-therapeutics-provides-business-update-and-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Confirmed FDA label expansion plus a hard revenue print -- factual, so salesM was updated. Commercial asset already at pos/apr 100; the remaining lever is pen, left unchanged pending a full year of pediatric uptake.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":21.6325933,"successTP":21.6325933,"baseTP":21.6325933,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"ctx460","indication":"aatd","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-03: CTX460 (SERPINA1 / AATD) Phase 1 INITIATED -- first SyNTase-platform candidate dosed; CTX340 (AGT / hypertension) Phase 1 also initiated after IND clearance","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":30,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/crispr-therapeutics-provides-business-update-and-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_sourceUrl":"https://crisprtx.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/crispr-therapeutics-highlights-strategic-priorities-and-0","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company officially confirmed CTX460 clinical trial start in mid-2026 across multiple recent earnings calls and press releases","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Program-start milestone hit on guidance (mid-2026). Advances CTX460 from preclinical to clinical but carries no efficacy read -- narrative and stage only, no PoS move.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":21.6232129,"successTP":21.6354712,"baseTP":21.6325933,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":6,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"zugocel","indication":"cart_ai","title":"Zugocabtagene geleucel (ex-CTX112) multiple clinical updates across autoimmune + immuno-oncology (guided H2 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/crispr-therapeutics-provides-business-update-and-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"medium","failTP":21.4862024,"successTP":21.7270391,"baseTP":21.6325933,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ctx310","indication":"cv_edit","title":"CTX310 ANGPTL3 Phase 1b update in severe hypertriglyceridemia (fixed dose ~0.8 mg/kg equiv; guided H2'26) -- Ph1a 1-yr durability already reported ESC Aug 28 2026","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"failTP":20.3438113,"successTP":23.006072,"baseTP":21.6325933,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zugocel","indication":"cart_ai","title":"CTX611 (Factor XI siRNA) program update -- guided H2 2026 (config previously mislabelled this as a Ph2 autoimmune topline)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/crispr-therapeutics-provides-business-update-and-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_sourceUrl":"https://crisprtx.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/crispr-therapeutics-highlights-strategic-priorities-and-0","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company expects topline Phase 2 CTX611 data in H2 2026 per multiple recent investor communications","failTP":21.4654455,"successTP":21.7751584,"baseTP":21.6325933,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":120,"lenses":{"comparable":22.6},"readouts":[{"a":"ctx310","ind":"cv_edit","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","endpoint":"ldl_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":45.3007029,"lo":4.44017086,"hi":79.3103106,"pBeatBest":0.21475,"bestDrug":"evolocumab","bestValue":59},{"a":"zugocel","ind":"cart_ai","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":5.24945554,"lo":-15,"hi":46.4351222,"pBeatBest":0.03055,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"zugocel","ind":"cart_ai","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":5.39574989,"lo":-15,"hi":45.8798957,"pBeatBest":0.0292,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"CRVO":{"name":"CervoMed","subtitle":"Neflamapimod DLB -- self-funded Ph3 DEPRIORITIZED Jun'26, now partnership-dependent | ~$20.5M gross raised Jun'26; cash $24.9M at 30-Jun-26 | nfvPPA Ph2a fully enrolled (n=25) Jul'26 | micro-cap","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":13.53,"netCashLocal":24.9,"cashPS":1.8404,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0,"bull":3.68,"psychedelic_bull":16.02},"weightedTP":1.72,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.dlb","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","cns.cerebrovascular","cns.neurodegeneration.als","cns.neurodegeneration.ftd"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.p38_mapk","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.dlb","purity":135},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":86},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":28},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":21},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":16},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.dlb","purity":151},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":89},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":22},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":21},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":11},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.dlb","purity":191},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":99},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":4},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.post_stroke_recovery","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":2},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":19,"rarePurityWtd":14,"optionality":1018,"totalTAM":17.774,"totalWTD":1.589855},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 11 2026 (ISFTD)","dateSort":"2026-10-11","asset":"nef_ppa","indication":"ppa","title":"Neflamapimod nfvPPA Ph2a initial results -- LATE-BREAKING ORAL at ISFTD Oct 11 2026: 12-week plasma NfL/GFAP in >=22 patients (more data November); 24-wk clinical data Q1'27","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359388/0/en/cervomed-announces-initial-results-from-the-phase-2a-clinical-trial-of-neflamapimod-in-nonfluent-variant-primary-progressive-aphasia-nfvppa-have-been-accepted-as-a-late-breaking-or.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company confirmed initial topline clinical data from nfvPPA trial expected in second half 2026","failTP":1.58967487,"successTP":1.8078252,"baseTP":1.7210531,"swingPct":13,"successMove":5,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"2H 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"nef_stroke","indication":"stroke","title":"RESTORE ischemic stroke Phase 2a topline (enrollment complete Jun'26; topline guided 2H'26)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":55,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cervomed-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company expects topline data from RESTORE ischemic stroke trial in second half 2026","failTP":1.5897126,"successTP":1.80847033,"baseTP":1.7210531,"swingPct":13,"successMove":5,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"end of 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"nef_als","indication":"als","title":"EXPERTS-ALS Phase 2 initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":45,"_note":"EXPERTS-ALS (neflamapimod) not initiated by Aug 1; CervoMed Q2'26 update (Aug 10) reiterates first ALS patient dosing in the UK-based platform trial by END OF 2026. Rolled to YE'26.","failTP":1.48774461,"successTP":1.89977735,"baseTP":1.7210531,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"nef_dlb","indication":"dlb","title":"DLB Phase 3 initiation -- ROLLED from Sep'26: Q2'26 update makes the start conditional on a partnership and/or additional financing, with no guided date","type":"phase3_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"failTP":0,"successTP":8.10528547,"baseTP":1.7210531,"swingPct":141,"successMove":111,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.78}},"CRVS":{"name":"Corvus Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"ITK inhibitor (soquelitinib) · Phase 3 PTCL interim YE2026 · Phase 2 AD (SIERRA1) enrolling since Q1 2026 · ~$235M cash post-offering","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":84,"netCashLocal":335,"cashPS":3.9881,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.79,"bear":3.57,"base":10.22,"bull":17.39,"psychedelic_bull":20.38},"weightedTP":9.99,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.itk","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":85},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":55},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":43},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":42},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":78},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":67},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":67},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":33},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":129},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":64},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":3},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":6,"optionality":286,"totalTAM":40.645,"totalWTD":10.5395125},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q1 2026 (initiated)","dateSort":"2026-03-15","asset":"soq_ad","indication":"ad","title":"REPORTED: Phase 2 atopic dermatitis trial initiation (~200 pts)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Soquelitinib Phase 2 AD trial (~200 pts, 4 cohorts incl. placebo) initiated in Q1 2026 per Corvus Q1 2026 update; trial enrolling at ~200 patient target.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CRVS/corvus-pharmaceuticals-provides-business-update-and-reports-first-eytu6vdhsj5j.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":8.54984711,"successTP":10.8110956,"baseTP":9.98897227,"swingPct":7,"successMove":2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"SID 2026 (May 14-16)","dateSort":"2026-05-14","asset":"soq_ad","indication":"ad","title":"REPORTED: SID 2026 biomarker data presentations (Phase 1 AD) — also planned AAD slot ultimately not used","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":42,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":58,"success_apr":70,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"SID 2026 (May 14-16) two oral presentations incl. late-breaker. Ph1 randomized placebo-controlled n=72 moderate-severe AD: up to 75% EASI-75 at 200mg BID; durable drug-free remissions post-treatment; AEs comparable to placebo. Biomarker: ↑ persistent Tregs, ↓ Th2/Th17. SIERRA1 Ph2 (~200 pts) enrolling.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/14/3294761/0/en/corvus-pharmaceuticals-presents-soquelitinib-phase-1-atopic-dermatitis-data-at-the-society-for-investigative-dermatology-sid-annual-meeting.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":8.61233914,"successTP":10.8185259,"baseTP":9.98897227,"swingPct":19,"successMove":7,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":51,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"soq_hs","indication":"hs","title":"Hidradenitis suppurativa Phase 2 PoC trial initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":50,"failTP":9.71867807,"successTP":10.1808247,"baseTP":9.98897227,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-01","asset":"soq_ptcl","indication":"ptcl","title":"PTCL Phase 3 registrational interim analysis","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"failTP":6.04537477,"successTP":12.1547726,"baseTP":9.98897227,"swingPct":61,"successMove":22,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"Late 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"soq_asthma","indication":"severe_asthma","title":"Severe asthma Phase 2 PoC trial initiation (slipped from 2026-09-15: Aug 6 2026 Q2 PR guides Corvus Ph2 asthma start 'later this year'; partner Angel Pharma's own Ph2 asthma trial guided early 2027)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":40,"failTP":9.92994479,"successTP":10.0254333,"baseTP":9.98897227,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","ratioPct":156}]},"lenses":{"comparable":7.95},"readouts":[{"a":"soq_ad","ind":"ad","ds":"2026-05-14","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":47.0235157,"lo":1.19568737,"hi":89.9019942,"pBeatBest":0.0714,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"CSL":{"name":"CSL Limited (Behring + Seqirus + Vifor)","subtitle":"FY26 rev USD $15.8B (+2%); statutory NET LOSS $2.58B on $7.1B impairments; underlying NPATA $3.1B, ~5% growth guided | ANDEMBRY FDA-approved Jun'25, uptake strong","currency":"AUD","country":"AU","region":"OCEANIA","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":485,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":4.1237,"tps":{"mega_bear":91.24,"bear":117.72,"base":155.9,"bull":233.47,"psychedelic_bull":404.04},"weightedTP":178.74,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.reversal","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","hematology.supportive_care.volume_expander","hematology.supportive_care","hematology.hemostasis.vwd","hematology.hemostasis.fibrinogen_deficiency","hematology.anemia.iron_deficiency","hematology.anemia","nephrology.ckd.anemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","nephrology.ckd.pruritus","infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","_established_products.csl_heritage","_established_products","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.immunoglobulin_g","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.fix_fc_long_acting","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav5_fix","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","biologic.recombinant_protein.complement.c1_esterase_inhibitor","biologic.recombinant_protein.complement","biologic.recombinant_protein.coagulation.pcc_4factor","biologic.recombinant_protein.coagulation","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.albumin","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.specialty","small_molecule.binder_chelator.iron_carboxymaltose","small_molecule","small_molecule.binder_chelator","small_molecule.binder_chelator.iron_mixed","small_molecule.gpcr.kappa_opioid_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr","vaccine.protein_subunit.influenza_various","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.csl_heritage","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_fxiia","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.fgf21_mimetic"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.csl_heritage","purity":49},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":39},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":21},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":19},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.anemia.iron_deficiency","purity":12},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":12},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.anemia","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.supportive_care.volume_expander","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.pruritus","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.reversal","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.supportive_care","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.fibrinogen_deficiency","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.csl_heritage","purity":55},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":24},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":20},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":15},{"area":"hematology.anemia.iron_deficiency","purity":14},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":10},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.anemia","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.supportive_care.volume_expander","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.pruritus","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.reversal","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.supportive_care","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.fibrinogen_deficiency","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.csl_heritage","purity":42},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":30},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":25},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":25},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":21},{"area":"hematology.anemia.iron_deficiency","purity":14},{"area":"hematology.supportive_care.volume_expander","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":11},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":11},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":9},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.reversal","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.anemia","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.supportive_care","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":4},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.fibrinogen_deficiency","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.pruritus","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":14,"rarePurityWtd":15,"optionality":13,"totalTAM":123.25345,"totalWTD":109.04485},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2025","dateSort":"2025-06-16","asset":"garadacimab","indication":"hae_prophylaxis","title":"REPORTED 2025-06-16: ANDEMBRY (garadacimab-gxii) FDA APPROVED for HAE prophylaxis age 12+ -- first and only factor-XIIa-targeted prophylactic, once-monthly autoinjector","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"VANGUARD Ph3 positive 2023; BLA filed Q4 2024.","_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-food-and-drug-administration-approves-csls-andembry-garadacimab-gxii-the-only-prophylactic-hereditary-angioedema-hae-treatment-targeting-factor-xiia-for-all-patients-from-the-start-302483058.html","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Approval on the pre-declared success branch (pos 99 / apr 95). The config had let this sit as a forward PDUFA for 14 months after the fact.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":178.740506,"successTP":178.740506,"baseTP":178.740506,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-18","asset":"ig_franchise","indication":"pi","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-18: FY2026 results -- revenue USD $15.797B (+2%; -1% cc), statutory NET LOSS USD $2.579B on USD $7.1B of impairments and restructuring, underlying NPATA USD $3.1B; ~5% NPATA growth guided","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://investors.csl.com/pdf/3d18fc4f-6133-41c7-9188-ec992e930ca3/Platform/ListPage/CSL-Results-Presentation-for-FY2026.pdf","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"A reset year: the headline loss is non-cash impairment and restructuring, underlying earnings held at $3.1B and the market took it well. Revenue growth of only 2% reported (-1% cc) is nonetheless below the growth embedded in the base commercialRevM ladder, which is flagged rather than auto-changed.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":178.740506,"successTP":178.740506,"baseTP":178.740506,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"csl689_fgf21","indication":"mash","title":"CSL689 FGF21 MASH Ph2/3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":70,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"MASH class crowded (Akero efruxifermin, 89bio pegozafermin Ph3 ahead).","failTP":170.536511,"successTP":183.181366,"baseTP":178.740506,"swingPct":7,"successMove":2,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":16050,"lenses":{"comparable":714.55,"eeRel":2.3607},"readouts":[{"a":"csl689_fgf21","ind":"mash","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":27.0496696,"lo":5.70788725,"hi":52.7821061,"pBeatBest":0.09795,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"CTMX":{"name":"CytomX Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Probody platform | Varseta-M (CX-2051, EpCAM TOP1-ADC) late-line CRC: Ph1 mono enrolment COMPLETE (113 pts), FDA Fast Track Aug'26, data YE'26, registrational 1H'27 | $367M to 2H'28","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":217.7,"netCashLocal":367.3,"cashPS":1.6872,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.32,"bear":2.42,"base":5.87,"bull":9.15,"psychedelic_bull":12.64},"weightedTP":5.16,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","_platform.probody_collaborations","_platform"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.masked.epcam_top1","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.masked","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.ifna_probody","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.antibody.bispecific.egfr_cd3_probody","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cdh3_cd3_probody","_platform.discovery.probody","_platform","_platform.discovery"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":4},{"area":"_platform.probody_collaborations","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.probody_collaborations","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.probody_collaborations","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":26,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":328,"totalTAM":21.8035,"totalWTD":5.099634},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-03","asset":"probody_platform","indication":"probody_partner_pipeline","title":"REPORTED: REGN strategic collab EXPANDED Jun 3 2026 -- $37M target selection payment for 2 ADDITIONAL conditional bispecific TCE programs (platform validation + non-dilutive cash; cash 347 -> 384M)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"CytomX IR Jun 3 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"$37M target selection payment received from REGN for 2 additional Probody bispecific TCE programs.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":5.15575668,"successTP":5.15575668,"baseTP":5.15575668,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-10-01","asset":"probody_platform","indication":"probody_partner_pipeline","title":"Probody platform 2026 partnership milestones (BMS/Astellas/Amgen/Regeneron/Moderna TCE programs advancing through discovery/IND-enabling)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.cytomx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cytomx-therapeutics-announces-business-update-and-company","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.15575668,"successTP":5.15575668,"baseTP":5.15575668,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"varseta_m","indication":"varseta_m_crc_late","title":"Varseta-M (CX-2051) Ph1 CRC monotherapy data update (enrolment complete, 113 pts) + FDA alignment on the registrational path","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"CytomX Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-06","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.36144305,"successTP":8.57389711,"baseTP":5.15575668,"swingPct":60,"successMove":33,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":51,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":34},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"varseta_m","indication":"varseta_m_crc_late","title":"Varseta-M registrational study initiation (post FDA alignment)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"CytomX guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.39733703,"successTP":8.57389711,"baseTP":5.15575668,"swingPct":30,"successMove":20,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cx_801","indication":"cx801_melanoma","title":"CX-801 + KEYTRUDA Phase 1 initial combo data in advanced melanoma -- SLIPPED: initial data now guided 1H 2027 (Q2 PR Aug 6 2026)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":75,"_source":"CytomX FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.13217604,"successTP":5.19990973,"baseTP":5.15575668,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":24,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cx_908","indication":"cx908_solid","title":"CX-908 (dually-masked CDH3xCD3 PROBODY TCE) IND filing / Phase 1 initiation -- in-house CTMX TCE clinical re-entry","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://cytomx.com/pipeline/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.09053314,"successTP":5.13990877,"baseTP":5.15575668,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":76,"lenses":{"comparable":5.85},"readouts":[{"a":"cx_801","ind":"cx801_melanoma","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":16.8580208,"lo":0,"hi":45.8171963,"pBeatBest":0.16565,"bestDrug":"lifileucel (TIL)","bestValue":31.4}]},"CTNM":{"name":"Contineum Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"PIPE-307 M1: MS Ph2 FAILED Nov'25 + J&J MOONLIGHT-1 MDD Ph2 MISSED Sep'26 | PIPE-791 LPA1: PROPEL-IPF Ph2 enrolling (n=324); pain Ph1b positive Apr'26 | Cash $236.6M to mid-2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":37.4,"netCashLocal":236.6,"cashPS":6.3262,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.36,"bear":5.87,"base":9.91,"bull":15.82,"psychedelic_bull":22.17},"weightedTP":9.59,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns.pain"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_m1_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.lpa1_antagonist"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":71},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":53},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":53},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":53},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":36},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":23},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":12}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":143},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":72},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":47},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":23},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":177},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":89},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":21},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":1}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":547,"totalTAM":28.875,"totalWTD":4.46135},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"pipe791","indication":"pipe791_pain","title":"REPORTED: PIPE-791 chronic pain Ph1b topline","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Reported 2026-04-30: positive topline from exploratory Phase 1b of PIPE-791 (oral LPA1 antagonist, once-daily 10mg) in chronic osteoarthritis pain and chronic low back pain. Well tolerated in the largest/longest cohort to date; encouraging early signals in pain measures and responder rates.","_source":"https://ir.contineum-tx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/contineum-therapeutics-reports-positive-topline-data-its","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.64472618,"successTP":10.0390807,"baseTP":9.58706334,"swingPct":11,"successMove":4,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Sep 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-14","asset":"pipe307","indication":"pipe307_mdd","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-14 (MISS): PIPE-307/JNJ-5120 MOONLIGHT-1 Ph2 MDD did NOT meet its primary endpoint (MADRS change at Day 5 vs placebo); well tolerated, no new safety signals; J&J evaluating data incl. exploratory endpoints before deciding next steps.","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_sourceUrl":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260914716616/en/Contineum-Therapeutics-Reports-Phase-2-Results-for-JNJ-5120PIPE-307-for-the-Treatment-of-Major-Depressive-Disorder","failTP":9.53411231,"successTP":10.1538451,"baseTP":9.58706334,"swingPct":7,"successMove":6,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"pipe307","indication":"pipe307_mdd","title":"J&J next-steps decision on JNJ-5120/PIPE-307 after MOONLIGHT-1 (J&J evaluating exploratory endpoints; no timing guided)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":10,"success_apr":15,"_confidence":"low","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001855175/000162828026061834/a8-kex991xjjdata.htm","failTP":9.50076976,"successTP":9.62949333,"baseTP":9.58706334,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":2,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"pipe791","indication":"pipe791_ipf","title":"PIPE-791 PROPEL-IPF Ph2 26-wk interim","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.71484026,"successTP":13.0419764,"baseTP":9.58706334,"swingPct":87,"successMove":36,"failMove":-51,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":49}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":9.57},"readouts":[{"a":"pipe791","ind":"pipe791_ipf","ds":"2027-12-15","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":91.7599096,"lo":-70.5678603,"hi":269.508672,"pBeatBest":0.13715,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193}]},"CUE":{"name":"Cue Biopharma, Inc.","subtitle":"Immuno-STAT PIVOT to autoimmune: CUE-401 IL-2/TGF-b Treg expander (IND + Ph1 by YE26) | CUE-221 anti-IgE CSU Ph2 readout end-Q3'26, food-allergy IND SUBMITTED | 1-for-30 RS; $67.4M pro-forma cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":7.81,"netCashLocal":67.4,"cashPS":8.63,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":3.23,"base":9.49,"bull":18.19,"psychedelic_bull":29.44},"weightedTP":8.62,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.il2_tgfb_treg","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.hpv_il2_immunostat","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ige","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":119},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":47},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":24},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":17}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":118},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":59},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":30},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":15}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":129},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":67},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":65},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":2}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":351,"totalTAM":23.9765,"totalWTD":5.3112752},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 20 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-20","asset":"cue221","indication":"cue221_csu","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-20 (HIT): CUE-221 China Ph2 CSU met primary HSS7=0 at wk12 at all doses (54/53/43% vs 11% pbo, n=145); UAS7=0 46% at 4mg/kg vs 29% omalizumab; no treatment-related SAEs","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":62,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/20/3365072/0/en/cue-biopharma-announces-positive-topline-results-from-cue-221-phase-2-study-in-chronic-spontaneous-urticaria.html","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Clean hit on primary + key secondary. Pre-declared success_pos/apr (45/55) sit BELOW the live base (50/62), which already priced a positive readout, so assumptions were left unchanged rather than cut on good news.","_note":"2026-09-21 follow-up: success_pos/apr 45/55 -> 55/62 so the realised post-Ph2 state equals the live base (was below it). Next CSU step is the Ph2b/3 start -- company guides only 'rapid initiation' (Sep 20 PR), so no dated catalyst added.","failTP":1.65868556,"successTP":15.8844764,"baseTP":8.62373461,"swingPct":165,"successMove":84,"failMove":-81,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":64},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cue401","indication":"cue401_t1d","title":"CUE-401 IND submission + Phase 1 initiation (guided by year-end 2026; FDA pre-IND feedback received)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"Cue Biopharma Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-14","failTP":5.00667351,"successTP":8.42533305,"baseTP":8.62373461,"swingPct":8,"successMove":0,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"cue401","indication":"cue401_t1d","title":"CUE-401 Ph1 first-in-human SAD readout (in-vivo Treg expansion PoC; FIH initiated by YE26)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.03747159,"successTP":11.3283594,"baseTP":8.62373461,"swingPct":51,"successMove":22,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"cue401","indication":"cue401_t1d","title":"CUE-401 Ph1 MAD readout","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.03747159,"successTP":11.3283594,"baseTP":8.62373461,"swingPct":51,"successMove":22,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":7.51}},"CUV":{"name":"Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Limited","subtitle":"Australian rare derm | FY26 10th straight profit: rev A$94.0M, NPAT A$33.9M (-6%), cash A$252.1M (+12%), A$0.05 franked div | CUV105 Ph3 vitiligo topline DEC'26; CUV107 pivotal starts Nov'26","currency":"AUD","country":"AU","region":"OCEANIA","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":49.4,"netCashLocal":252.1,"cashPS":5.1032,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.42,"bear":14.94,"base":23.59,"bull":41.19,"psychedelic_bull":74.72},"weightedTP":27.03,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.porphyria","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.alpha_msh_analog","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":180},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":90},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":20},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":158},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":79},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":42},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":21}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":117},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":83},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":59},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":41}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":113,"totalTAM":12.9675,"totalWTD":6.09375},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"scenesse","indication":"scenesse_epp","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-27: FY2026 (to 30 Jun 2026) -- 10th consecutive annual profit; revenue AUD 94.0M, expenses AUD 53.5M, NPAT AUD 33.9M (-6%); cash reserves +12% to AUD 252.1M; annual franked dividend AUD 0.05/sh; record SCENESSE treatment volumes to EPP patients","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Clinuvel FY2026 annual results 2026-08-27 (ASX / Form 6-K)","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001290877/000149315226040352/form6-k.htm","_note":"RESOLVED. Solid but not growing: a tenth consecutive profitable year with record SCENESSE treatment volumes and total revenues above AUD 100M for a second year, yet revenue slipped marginally to AUD 94.0M and NPAT fell 6% to AUD 33.9M. Expenses were tightly controlled and fell to AUD 53.5M, with spending steered to the Phase III vitiligo programme. Cash reserves rose 12% to AUD 252.1M. fail_* and success_* were both 100/100, so no assumption moved.","failTP":27.0289708,"successTP":27.0289708,"baseTP":27.0289708,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"cuv105_vitiligo","indication":"cuv105_vit","title":"CUV107 pivotal Phase III vitiligo study START -- planned November 2026, ahead of the CUV105 topline; the second large-scale trial required for regulatory filings in Europe, North America and Africa","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":75,"_source":"Clinuvel guidance (FY2026 results / ASX announcements)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.clinuvel.com/","_addedAt":"2026-09-04T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Clinuvel plans to start the pivotal CUV107 study in November 2026 and, if CUV105 reads out positive, to advance afamelanotide into that second large-scale trial while pursuing regulatory engagement across Europe, North America and Africa. Trial-start milestone, so fail_* = success_* = the current base assumption and it carries no drift","failTP":23.647096,"successTP":29.934157,"baseTP":27.0289708,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cuv105_vitiligo","indication":"cuv105_vit","title":"CUV105 Phase 3 vitiligo TOPLINE -- guidance narrowed to DECEMBER 2026 (>200 patients enrolled; first systemic vitiligo therapy candidate)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Clinuvel CUV105 enrollment complete PR May 2025","_confidence":"high","_note":"2026-09-04: guidance narrowed from \"H2 2026\" to DECEMBER 2026; date rolled from 30 Nov to 31 Dec 2026. No assumption change -- the readout has not happened.","failTP":20.565253,"successTP":33.1091607,"baseTP":27.0289708,"swingPct":46,"successMove":22,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":65,"lenses":{"comparable":20.51,"eeRel":7.9474,"peRel":4.3967}},"CYTK":{"name":"Cytokinetics, Incorporated","subtitle":"Cardiac myosin specialty | Aficamten (MYQORZO) FDA Dec 2025 oHCM, EU+China approved | ACACIA-HCM nHCM Ph3 readout May 5 2026 | $1.22B cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":132.09,"netCashLocal":26.2,"cashPS":0.1983,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.66,"bear":21.56,"base":34.8,"bull":49.67,"psychedelic_bull":54},"weightedTP":35.39,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","_royalty.cytk_sanofi","_royalty","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","cns.neurodegeneration.als","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef"],"modalities":["small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor.cardiac_myosin","small_molecule","small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor","small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor.troponin_cardiac","small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor.troponin_fast_skeletal"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":87},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":56},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":54},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":52},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":44},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":5},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":2},{"area":"_royalty.cytk_sanofi","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":167},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":84},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":21},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":16},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1},{"area":"_royalty.cytk_sanofi","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":197},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":98},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":1},{"area":"_royalty.cytk_sanofi","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":105,"totalTAM":58.875052,"totalWTD":28.7380855},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"aficamten","indication":"ohcm","title":"RESOLVED: Germany aficamten launch (CYTK-direct EU; first EU country)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Cytokinetics EU Commission approval Feb 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"Cytokinetics launched MYQORZO (aficamten) in EU with first commercial availability in Germany on Jun 1 2026 (CYTK-direct, symptomatic NYHA II-III oHCM). EC approval Feb 2026. Source: Cytokinetics PR / GlobeNewswire Jun 1 2026.","failTP":25.281895,"successTP":44.0955022,"baseTP":35.3884115,"swingPct":16,"successMove":8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"Nov 14, 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-14","asset":"aficamten_maple","indication":"ohcm_maple","title":"MAPLE-HCM sNDA PDUFA Nov 14 2026 (head-to-head vs metoprolol; 1L monotherapy label)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Cytokinetics MAPLE-HCM sNDA filing Q1 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":34.7424114,"successTP":35.7986106,"baseTP":35.3884115,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-20","asset":"aficamten_nhcm","indication":"nhcm","title":"Aficamten non-obstructive HCM sNDA submission (post-ACACIA-HCM dual primary hit; guided Q4 2026)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":99,"_source":"Cytokinetics PR 2026-08-29 (ESC late-breaker)","_confidence":"high","failTP":32.6190527,"successTP":37.2397339,"baseTP":35.3884115,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":98,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"aficamten","indication":"ohcm","title":"MYQORZO US launch ramp (first full-year sales; vs Camzyos $400-500M peer)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Cytokinetics Q4 2025 earnings","_confidence":"high","failTP":25.281895,"successTP":44.0955022,"baseTP":35.3884115,"swingPct":16,"successMove":8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26}],"salesM2025":1,"lenses":{"comparable":30.48}},"DBVT":{"name":"DBV Technologies (Viaskin Peanut Patch)","subtitle":"Viaskin Peanut Patch (EPIT): Ph3 VITESSE positive Dec'25 4-7yr (46.6% vs 14.8%); BLA 4-7yr on track Q3'26 (FDA sought no new data); toddler BLA H2'26; THRIVE Ph2 infants 6-12mo; cash $174.9M","currency":"USD","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":87.74,"netCashLocal":174.9,"cashPS":1.9934,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.88,"bear":3.47,"base":5.18,"bull":6.36,"psychedelic_bull":7.22},"weightedTP":4.55,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.hypersensitivity.food_allergy","immunology","immunology.hypersensitivity"],"modalities":["biological_extract.allergen.epicutaneous","biological_extract","biological_extract.allergen"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.food_allergy","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.food_allergy","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.food_allergy","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":31,"totalTAM":3.218,"totalWTD":2.46177},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"viaskin_peanut","indication":"viaskin_peanut_pediatric","title":"Viaskin Peanut BLA filing 4-7yr (post-VITESSE positive Dec'25)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/DBVT/8-k-dbv-technologies-s-a-reports-material-event-f6f90195023e.html","_confidence":"high","_note":"Slipped: DBV now targets Q3 2026 for Viaskin Peanut (ages 4-7) BLA filing after incorporating FDA CMC/biostatistical formatting feedback (no additional data requested); sister 1-3yr filing targeted end-2026. Date rolled from H1 to Q3 2026.","failTP":3.00992537,"successTP":5.90001604,"baseTP":4.54948275,"swingPct":32,"successMove":15,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"viaskin_peanut","indication":"viaskin_peanut_pediatric","title":"Viaskin Peanut toddler 1-3yr BLA filing","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/DBVT/8-k-dbv-technologies-s-a-reports-material-event-7a71ce5393f2.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.11122791,"successTP":6.00530752,"baseTP":4.54948275,"swingPct":32,"successMove":16,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":9.88}},"DFTX":{"name":"Definium Therapeutics","subtitle":"Ph3 (ex-MindMed); DT120 LSD ODT: 3 Ph3 HITS -- EMERGE MDD Jun'26 (BTD), VOYAGE GAD Aug'26, PANORAMA GAD Sep 14'26 (HAM-A -5.1 vs pbo); pre-NDA Q4'26, NDA 1H'27; cash ~$1.1B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":137.62,"netCashLocal":1042,"cashPS":7.5716,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.05,"bear":12.67,"base":21.91,"bull":31.38,"psychedelic_bull":44.2},"weightedTP":23.32,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.neurodevelopmental.asd","cns.neurodevelopmental"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.5ht2a_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":90},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":76},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":76},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":27},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.asd","purity":20},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":99},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":83},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":83},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":33},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.asd","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":92},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":54},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":54},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.asd","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":50,"totalTAM":19.969,"totalWTD":13.2700629},"catalysts":[{"date":"June 22, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-22","asset":"dt120","indication":"mdd","title":"REPORTED: EMERGE MDD Phase 3 topline HIT (single 100ug DT120 ODT, 149 pts, 6wk MADRS)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":90,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"EMERGE met primary + all key secondary endpoints: MADRS LS-mean change at Week 6 -13.3 (DT120) vs -5.2 (placebo), ~8.1-point delta; well tolerated (99% TEAEs mild/moderate, no new safety signal, no suicidality increase). Resolved to catalyst success: base dt120.mdd pos 35->80, apr 60->90; monotonic envelope lifted across all scenarios. Source: BusinessWire PR + 8-K Jun 22 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":14.0640934,"successTP":25.7592407,"baseTP":23.3158675,"swingPct":50,"successMove":10,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":34},{"date":"August 12, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-12","asset":"dt120","indication":"gad","title":"REPORTED: VOYAGE Phase 3 GAD topline HIT (100ug DT120 ODT, n=214, Wk12 HAM-A -11.6 vs -6.2 placebo)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260226343522/en/Definium-Therapeutics-Reports-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results-and-Business-Updates","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"First Phase 3 readout for DT120 in GAD, binary pivotal data from fully enrolled trial","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"VOYAGE met its primary endpoint: statistically significant and clinically meaningful change from baseline in HAM-A total score at Week 12. DT120 ODT 100ug (n=107) mean baseline HAM-A 28.4, improvement -11.6 vs -6.2 for placebo (n=107); generally well tolerated, safety consistent with prior experience. Second positive DT120 Ph3 after EMERGE (MDD, Jun 2026). Resolved to catalyst success: base dt120.gad pos 70->80, apr 80->85; monotonic envelope lifted across scenarios (bear/mega_bear re-specified from 'VOYAGE fails' to commercial/REMS/regulatory risk, mirroring the EMERGE resolution). Source: Definium BusinessWire PR + 8-K Aug 12 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":14.4846666,"successTP":25.4799536,"baseTP":23.3158675,"swingPct":47,"successMove":9,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"Sep 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-14","asset":"dt120","indication":"gad","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-14: PANORAMA Ph3 GAD topline HIT -- DT120 ODT 100ug HAM-A -9.8 vs -4.7 pbo at Wk12 (delta -5.1, p<0.0001, d=0.64); all key secondaries met; discontinuations 10.4% vs 10.3%","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_note":"Second GAD Ph3; company guided topline Sep 2026 in the Aug 12 2026 VOYAGE PR. Not a make-or-break binary post-VOYAGE -- fail floors reflect that one positive adequate-and-well-controlled GAD trial is already in hand.","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://ir.definiumtx.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/251/definium-therapeutics-announces-positive-topline-results-from-phase-3-panorama-study-of-dt120-odt-in-generalized-anxiety-disorder","failTP":17.8385975,"successTP":25.4799536,"baseTP":23.3158675,"swingPct":32,"successMove":9,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"dt402","indication":"asd","title":"DT402 ASD Phase 2a initial data","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":55,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260226343522/en/Definium-Therapeutics-Reports-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results-and-Business-Updates","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Initial data from DT402 Phase 2a autism study anticipated in 2026, though specific timing not disclosed","_note":"DT402 (R(-)-MDMA) ASD Ph2a (Definium, ex-MindMed) initiated Q4 2025; initial data broadly guided 2026 but no readout found as of Aug 12 -- UNCONFIRMED. Rolled to YE'26 pending confirmation.","failTP":23.2435687,"successTP":23.3910872,"baseTP":23.3158675,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":22.71}},"DMAC":{"name":"DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.","subtitle":"DM199 (rinvecalinase alfa, KLK1): ReMEDy2 AIS >85% of 200-pt interim enrolled, interim early 2027 | Preeclampsia Ph2 Part 1a POSITIVE Aug10'26 (-29.1 mmHg SBP) | Cash $43.5M to 2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":53.9,"netCashLocal":43.5,"cashPS":0.8071,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.28,"bear":0.63,"base":1.57,"bull":2.96,"psychedelic_bull":4.55},"weightedTP":1.5,"meta":{"areas":["cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","cns","cns.cerebrovascular","women_health.pregnancy.preeclampsia","women_health","women_health.pregnancy"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.serine_protease_klk1","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":108},{"area":"women_health.pregnancy.preeclampsia","purity":92},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":54},{"area":"women_health.pregnancy","purity":46}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":111},{"area":"women_health.pregnancy.preeclampsia","purity":89},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":56},{"area":"women_health.pregnancy","purity":44}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.acute_ischemic_stroke","purity":132},{"area":"women_health.pregnancy.preeclampsia","purity":68},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":66},{"area":"women_health.pregnancy","purity":34}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":231,"totalTAM":4.7775,"totalWTD":1.443357},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"dm199","indication":"dm199_preeclampsia","title":"REPORTED: DM199 rabbit non-clinical study readout (enables US IND for preeclampsia)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Setback disclosed ~May 2026 (Q1 2026 results): rabbits developed an anti-drug antibody response to DM199 (humanized recombinant KLK1), preventing completion of the FDA-requested 10-day modified EFD/PPND (ePPND) study in the rabbit model as originally designed. Enabling non-clinical step for the US preeclampsia IND is delayed pending an alternative path; not a clean fail (rabbit-model immunogenicity may not be human-relevant) but the IND-enabling milestone was not cleared as planned.","_source":"https://www.diamedica.com/investors/press-releases/detail/1725/diamedica-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.904584071,"successTP":1.3799556,"baseTP":1.50250833,"swingPct":16,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":29,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"Early 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"dm199","indication":"dm199_ais","title":"DM199 ReMEDy2 DSMB interim + sample-size re-estimation (KEY) (slipped: company guides early 2027, Q2'26 8-K)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":72,"_confidence":"high","_floorNote":"Recalibrated 2026-08-11. Previous success (50/60) sat at/below the live base of 50/62, so a DSMB pass would have been a downgrade on apr. Success now 62/72 -- passing futility with sample-size re-estimation de-risks a Ph2/3 in acute stroke but is not a full efficacy readout, so it is set below a hypothetical Ph3 win.","failTP":0.400846686,"successTP":2.68526582,"baseTP":1.50250833,"swingPct":152,"successMove":79,"failMove":-73,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":64},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"dm199","indication":"dm199_preeclampsia","title":"DM199 preeclampsia Ph2 full dosing data (Part 1a interim ALREADY POSITIVE Aug 10 2026: -29.1 mmHg SBP / -17.0 mmHg DBP in highest-dose cohorts)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_confidence":"medium","_floorNote":"Recalibrated 2026-08-11. Previous floors (fail 10/15, success 40/50) sat BELOW the live base of 48/61 after the Part 1a interim, so 'success' would have been a downgrade. Rebracketed: a full Ph2 hit in early-onset preeclampsia makes DM199 Ph3-ready and first-in-class (72/80); a miss leaves only the Part 1a BP signal (15/22).","failTP":0.942051535,"successTP":2.15923189,"baseTP":1.50250833,"swingPct":81,"successMove":44,"failMove":-37,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.73}},"DMP":{"name":"Dermapharm Holding SE","subtitle":"German derm specialty | H1'26 rev EUR591.0M (+2.9%), adj EBITDA EUR163.2M (+10.3%), 27.6% margin | FY26 guide CONFIRMED EUR1,182-1,218M / EUR331-341M | Branded Rx/OTC + biosimilars + parallel import","currency":"EUR","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":53.8,"netCashLocal":50,"cashPS":0.9294,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.89,"bear":24.06,"base":41.55,"bull":71.42,"psychedelic_bull":121.4},"weightedTP":46.48,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.derm_germany_eu","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.derm","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.consumer.otc_mixed","_diversified.consumer","_diversified.distribution.parallel_import","_diversified.distribution"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-26","asset":"branded_pharma","indication":"branded_div","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-26: H1 2026 -- revenue EUR 591.0M (+2.9% from EUR 574.5M), adjusted EBITDA EUR 163.2M (+10.3%), margin 27.6%; branded pharmaceuticals +11.6%; FY2026 guidance CONFIRMED at EUR 1,182-1,218M revenue and EUR 331-341M adjusted EBITDA","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Dermapharm H1 2026 report / EQS-News 2026-08-26","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.dermapharm.de/en/investor-relations/financial-reports-presentations/","_note":"RESOLVED. Result was in line to slightly ahead: revenue growth matched the +2.9% preliminary print and adjusted EBITDA came in +10.3%, lifting the margin to 27.6%. Branded pharmaceuticals did the work at +11.6%, driven by organic expansion plus the consolidation of Mucos Group and F. Trenka. Full-year guidance was confirmed rather than raised. fail_* and success_* were both 100/100, so there was no assumption to move -- as expected for an all-commercial config where the reporting event is a confirmation, not a binary.","failTP":46.4844933,"successTP":46.4844933,"baseTP":46.4844933,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1180,"lenses":{"comparable":72.19,"peRel":1.0248}},"DMRA":{"name":"Damora Therapeutics (formerly Galecto GLTO)","subtitle":"Reverse-merger Mar'26 from Galecto: mutCALR biologics for MPN -- DMR-001 Ph1/1b CLARITY-101 initiated Aug'26 (ET+MF); DMR-002 IND H2'26; PoC mid'27; cash $540.5M into H2’29","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":79.82,"netCashLocal":540.5,"cashPS":6.7715,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.64,"bear":8.72,"base":13.93,"bull":25,"psychedelic_bull":43.5},"weightedTP":15.17,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.myeloid.mpn.et","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_mut_calr","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.et","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":27}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.et","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":37}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.et","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":9}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":447,"totalTAM":20.8065,"totalWTD":3.80648235},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"dmr001","indication":"dmr001_et","title":"REPORTED: DMR-001 IND/CTA cleared -- Ph1/1b CLARITY-101 initiated Aug 5 2026 (mutCALR ET + MF)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DMRA/damora-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-3g7dsqqm4qir.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeSource":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/damora-therapeutics-initiates-phase-1-1b-clarity-101-clinical-trial-of-dmr-001-in-patients-with-mutant-calreticulin-driven-essential-thrombocythemia-and-myelofibrosis","_note":"Health-authority clearance received; CLARITY-101 global open-label Ph1/1b initiated Aug 5 2026. Ph1 dose escalation from 100mg monthly SC (adaptive Bayesian); Ph1b adds additional populations + combos. Initial data still guided mid-2027. Clean success -> dmr001 pos/apr moved to pre-declared success_pos/success_apr (base 38/48 -> 45/55) with proportional shift across scenarios. Source: Damora PR Aug 5 2026.","failTP":9.71785698,"successTP":20.4664873,"baseTP":15.1652354,"swingPct":14,"successMove":7,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"dmr002","indication":"dmr002_mpn","title":"DMR-002 IND/CTA submission for mutCALR MPN (H2 2026) -- rolled: still guided 2H 2026, not yet announced (Q2 PR Aug 10 2026)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":17,"fail_apr":27,"success_pos":27,"success_apr":32,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GLTO/galecto-announces-name-change-to-damora-therapeutics-with-mission-to-zepvc1gw5y2t.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guidance confirms H2 2026 IND/CTA filing for DMR-002 following DMR-001 mid-2026","failTP":13.5656748,"successTP":16.2618453,"baseTP":15.1652354,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":7,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-31","asset":"dmr001","indication":"dmr001_et","title":"DMR-001 Ph1 first PoC dataset for mutCALR MPN","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DMRA/damora-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-3g7dsqqm4qir.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.56066189,"successTP":25.2072289,"baseTP":15.1652354,"swingPct":77,"successMove":46,"failMove":-31,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":45.21}},"DNLI":{"name":"Denali Therapeutics","subtitle":"AVLAYAH BBB-crossing ERT for Hunter MPS II launched Apr'26 (Q3 guide $10-12M); DNL126 MPS IIIA BLA 2027; DNL593 FTD-GRN data 2027; BIIB122 LRRK2 carriers only","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":188.1,"netCashLocal":934.9,"cashPS":4.9702,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.91,"bear":6.03,"base":7.29,"bull":8.82,"psychedelic_bull":10.6},"weightedTP":7.24,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.tfr_ids_bbb","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.etv_sulfamidase","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.ptv_progranulin","small_molecule.kinase.lrrk2","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":118},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":73},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":44},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":29},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":27},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":9}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":99},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":72},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":46},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":36},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":28},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":147},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":89},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":30},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.ftd","purity":17},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":11},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":6}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":41,"rarePurityWtd":82,"optionality":409,"totalTAM":13.11925,"totalWTD":2.57535},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-05-21","dateSort":"2026-05-21","asset":"biib122","indication":"biib122_pd","title":"REPORTED: BIIB122 LRRK2 Ph2b LUMA early-PD MISSED primary May 21 2026 (no PD slowing vs pbo; idiopathic PD discontinued; BEACON carrier Ph2a continues H1'27) -- fail; pos/apr already at fail floor","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://investors.denalitherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/denali-therapeutics-announces-key-anticipated-milestones-and","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Primary endpoint missed - BIIB122 did not slow PD progression vs placebo; program discontinued","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/21/3299820/0/en/biogen-and-denali-therapeutics-provide-update-on-phase-2b-luma-study-of-biib122-dnl151-in-early-stage-parkinson-s-disease.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":7.20992209,"successTP":7.9168367,"baseTP":7.24156992,"swingPct":9,"successMove":9,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"avlayah","indication":"avl_mps2","title":"REPORTED: AVLAYAH US launch underway -- FDA approved Mar 25 2026, first commercial patients dosed Apr 2026 (first BBB-crossing ERT for Hunter)","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":92,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/07/3290512/0/en/Denali-Therapeutics-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Business-Highlights.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"AVLAYAH (tividenofusp alfa-eknm) FDA-approved Mar 25 2026 (accelerated approval; ahead of Apr 5 PDUFA); US commercial launch initiated with first patients dosed Apr 2026 per Q1 2026 results (May 7 2026). Non-binary launch-progress milestone; ramp ongoing (confirmatory Phase 2/3 COMPASS >95% enrolled). Base case already assumes pos/apr 100 for AVLAYAH.","failTP":6.49569906,"successTP":7.71237849,"baseTP":7.24156992,"swingPct":14,"successMove":6,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"dnl593","indication":"dnl593_ftd_grn","title":"DNL593 (PTV:PGRN) Ph1/2 FTD-GRN results (40 pts; CSF PGRN + NfL) -- moved from end-2026 to 2027 per Q2'26 PR for a longer NfL observation window; Takeda opted out Apr'26 (strategic, not data-driven)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001714899/000171489926000096/ex991pressreleaseq22026.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.04815614,"successTP":7.5502678,"baseTP":7.24156992,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"avlayah","indication":"avl_mps2","title":"AVLAYAH COMPASS Ph2/3 confirmatory results vs idursulfase (confirms accelerated approval; adult label expansion; supports EU/global filings)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.royaltypharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Tividenofusp-alfa-Presentation-vFinal.pdf","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.23665189,"successTP":7.71237849,"baseTP":7.24156992,"swingPct":21,"successMove":7,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"dnl126","indication":"dnl126_mps3a","title":"DNL126 (zafinofusp alfa) BLA submission for accelerated approval in MPS IIIA (CSF heparan sulfate surrogate, AVLAYAH precedent)","type":"bla_submission","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001714899/000171489926000096/ex991pressreleaseq22026.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.8902659,"successTP":7.46325889,"baseTP":7.24156992,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":44,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"avlayah","indication":"avl_mps2","title":"AVLAYAH EU approval -- MAA to rest on COMPASS Ph2/3 vs idursulfase (results 2027); RP pays $75M more if EMA approves by end-2029","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.royaltypharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Tividenofusp-alfa-Presentation-vFinal.pdf","_confidence":"low","_dateNote":"2026-09-21: no EU timeline disclosed; was 'H2 2027 EMA decision', inconsistent with a filing that needs 2027 COMPASS data.","failTP":6.1114287,"successTP":7.70689474,"baseTP":7.24156992,"swingPct":20,"successMove":5,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":7.75}},"DNTH":{"name":"Dianthus Therapeutics","subtitle":"Claseprubart C1s inhibitor | EMERGE Ph3 gMG started Jun'26, topline 2H'28 | CAPTIVATE CIDP Part B guidance YE'26 (75% Part A responders) | MoMeNtum MMN Dec'26 | $1.2B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":56.03,"netCashLocal":1200,"cashPS":21.4171,"tps":{"mega_bear":20.66,"bear":24.15,"base":29.18,"bull":35.41,"psychedelic_bull":41.27},"weightedTP":29.71,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_c1s","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":142},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":58}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":119},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":81}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":138},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":62}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":134,"totalTAM":22.752,"totalWTD":9.73644},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2025","dateSort":"2025-09-15","asset":"claseprubart","indication":"clas_gmg","title":"REPORTED 2025-09-15: Claseprubart MaGic Ph2 gMG topline HIT -- 300mg/2mL Q2W SC gave rapid, sustained, statistically significant improvement vs placebo on MG-ADL AND QMG (significant at Week 1 and Week 13) in AChR-Ab+ gMG; basis for the EMERGE Ph3","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/dianthus-therapeutics-highlights-recent-business-achievements-and-reports-q2-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Config assumptions were already calibrated to a post-MaGic, Ph3-initiated state, so this is a bookkeeping correction of a phantom forward catalyst, not a re-rate. No pos/apr moved.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":26.8766022,"successTP":31.0036884,"baseTP":29.7104208,"swingPct":14,"successMove":4,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"claseprubart","indication":"clas_gmg","title":"REPORTED: Claseprubart Ph3 gMG registrational trial initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://investor.dianthustx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-06-29: Phase 3 EMERGE trial of claseprubart (DNTH-103) in AChR+ gMG INITIATED (ahead of deadline; ~195 pts, MG-ADL primary, topline ~2H 2028). Source: GlobeNewswire 2026-06-29.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":28.5656855,"successTP":30.6855568,"baseTP":29.7104208,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-05","asset":"claseprubart","indication":"clas_mmn","title":"Claseprubart MoMeNtum Ph2 MMN topline -- enrollment COMPLETE (exceeded target), on track for December 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/dianthus-therapeutics-highlights-recent-business-achievements-and-reports-q2-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"medium","failTP":28.0902426,"successTP":31.5233546,"baseTP":29.7104208,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"claseprubart","indication":"clas_cidp","title":"Claseprubart CAPTIVATE Ph3 CIDP Part B top-line GUIDANCE by YE'26 (interim responder analysis: 75% response in the first 40 Part A completers)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/dianthus-therapeutics-highlights-recent-business-achievements-and-reports-q2-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":25.7263101,"successTP":32.7719115,"baseTP":29.7104208,"swingPct":23,"successMove":10,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-09-30","asset":"claseprubart","indication":"clas_gmg","title":"Claseprubart EMERGE Ph3 gMG top-line (300mg/2mL SC Q2W and Q4W vs placebo; initiated Jun 29 2026, company guides 2H 2028)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/dianthus-therapeutics-highlights-recent-business-achievements-and-reports-q2-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":26.5451236,"successTP":31.213357,"baseTP":29.7104208,"swingPct":16,"successMove":5,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":34.95},"readouts":[{"a":"claseprubart","ind":"clas_gmg","ds":"2025-09-15","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.7338972,"lo":0.142671268,"hi":3.20331056,"pBeatBest":0.1302,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59},{"a":"claseprubart","ind":"clas_gmg","ds":"2028-09-30","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.49726113,"lo":-0.535056915,"hi":2.98992819,"pBeatBest":0.0818,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59}]},"DRREDDY":{"name":"Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.","subtitle":"Indian generics + biosimilars | FY26 (Mar26) INR 335.9B (+3.2%), PAT INR 42.85B | NA INR 113.7B (-22%, Revlimid roll-off + INR 4.53B SSA); EU +55%, EM +23%, India +16%; abatacept BLA accepted","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":834,"netCashLocal":57120,"cashPS":68.4892,"tps":{"mega_bear":786.54,"bear":1013.09,"base":1277.91,"bull":1710.02,"psychedelic_bull":2276.26},"weightedTP":1302.04,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.head_neck.npc","oncology.head_neck","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.drreddy_drl_north_america_other","_established_products","_established_products.drreddy_drl_india_other","_established_products.drreddy_drl_em_other","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.drreddy_drl_europe_other","_established_products.drreddy_drl_psai_other","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_degrader.cereblon_imid","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_degrader","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.ctla4_ig","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd20","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.semaglutide","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":66},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":21},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_north_america_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_europe_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_psai_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":67},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":34},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":21},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":18},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":15},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_north_america_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_europe_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_psai_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":77},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_north_america_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_europe_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.drreddy_drl_psai_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":1188.838,"totalWTD":1170.56661},"catalysts":[{"date":"Feb 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-20","asset":"drl_abatacept","indication":"ra_jia","title":"REPORTED (2026-02-20, success): USFDA ACCEPTED Dr. Reddy's 351(k) BLA for DRL_AB, a proposed INTERCHANGEABLE abatacept (Orencia) biosimilar, IV for infusion -- submitted Dec 2025, the first abatacept biosimilar filing in the US; drl_abatacept pos/apr moved to the pre-declared success values","type":"bla_submission","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260220372110/en/Dr.-Reddys-Announces-USFDA-Acceptance-to-Review-Its-Biologics-License-Application-BLA-for-Proposed-Interchangeable-Biosimilar-Abatacept","_confidence":"high","failTP":1301.76015,"successTP":1302.20614,"baseTP":1302.04363,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":89,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"drl_abatacept","indication":"ra_jia","title":"DRL_AB abatacept biosimilar US FDA approval + IV launch (company targets end-2026); SC formulation targeted early 2028","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260220372110/en/Dr.-Reddys-Announces-USFDA-Acceptance-to-Review-Its-Biologics-License-Application-BLA-for-Proposed-Interchangeable-Biosimilar-Abatacept","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1301.779,"successTP":1302.15947,"baseTP":1302.04363,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":89,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":20,"lenses":{"comparable":1418.79,"eeRel":0.7886,"peRel":1.0763}},"DRTS":{"name":"Alpha Tau Medical","subtitle":"Alpha DaRT Ra-224 intratumoral alpha radiation: ReSTART US pivotal cSCC enrollment complete May'26 (88 pts); pancreatic + GBM + multi-solid pipeline; cash $80M; MCap $848M","currency":"USD","country":"IL","region":"MEA.IL","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":88.01,"netCashLocal":115.2,"cashPS":1.3089,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.69,"bear":1.07,"base":1.9,"bull":2.85,"psychedelic_bull":3.69},"weightedTP":1.7,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.skin.cscc","oncology","oncology.skin","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi"],"modalities":["radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter.radium224_intratumoral","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.alpha_emitter"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":146},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.skin.cscc","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":27}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":103},{"area":"oncology.skin.cscc","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":48}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.skin.cscc","purity":152},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":24}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":196,"totalTAM":16.805,"totalWTD":5.683966},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-01","asset":"alpha_dart","indication":"alpha_dart_cscc","title":"ReSTART cSCC Phase 3 primary data (12-18 months post-enrollment)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/08/3291075/0/en/Alpha-Tau-Completes-Patient-Enrollment-in-its-U-S-Pivotal-Skin-Cancer-Study-Advancing-Towards-Goal-of-FDA-Approval-of-Alpha-DaRT-to-Treat-Recurrent-Cutaneous-Squamous-Cell-Carcinom.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Enrollment completed May 2026 with 88 patients; data typically 12-18 months post-enrollment for this type of study","failTP":0.70616918,"successTP":2.46291782,"baseTP":1.70154855,"swingPct":103,"successMove":45,"failMove":-58,"yourPoS":76,"expectedReturn":20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":51},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"alpha_dart","indication":"alpha_dart_cscc","title":"Alpha DaRT Ph3 ReSTART cSCC topline (enrollment complete May'26)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DRTS/alpha-tau-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-ki64mwx1t0kt.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.850362963,"successTP":2.501015,"baseTP":1.70154855,"swingPct":97,"successMove":47,"failMove":-50,"yourPoS":76,"expectedReturn":24,"daysOut":null,"materiality":51}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.28}},"DRUG":{"name":"Bright Minds Biosciences","subtitle":"Selective 5-HT2C biased agonists: BMB-101 Ph2 BREAKTHROUGH positive Jan'26 (73.1% absence seizure reduction); registrational DEE + absence + Prader-Willi Ph2 Q1'26; cash C$310M (~$225M); MCap $815M","currency":"USD","country":"CA","region":"AMERICAS.CA","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":9.86,"netCashLocal":225,"cashPS":22.8195,"tps":{"mega_bear":31.8,"bear":64.77,"base":102.4,"bull":157.42,"psychedelic_bull":198.84},"weightedTP":107.87,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","cns.epilepsy.dee","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.htr2c_biased_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":63},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":63},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":63},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":38},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":37},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":18},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":64},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":54},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":46},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":46},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":46},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":22},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":22}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":182},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":96},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":63,"rarePurityWtd":46,"optionality":197,"totalTAM":9.0855,"totalWTD":3.059484},"catalysts":[{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"bmb101","indication":"bmb101_absence","title":"BMB-101 Ph3 registrational absence seizure topline (post-Ph2 73.1%) -- NO Ph3 start disclosed as of Aug 2026 6-K ('initiated preparations'); re-dated from Q3 2027 assuming a ~12-18 mo trial once started","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/06/3213483/0/en/Bright-Minds-Biosciences-Announces-Positive-Topline-Results-from-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-of-BMB-101-in-Patients-with-Absence-Seizures-and-Developmental-and-Encephalopathic-Epilepsies-DEE.html","_confidence":"low","failTP":42.5729462,"successTP":158.27281,"baseTP":107.870115,"swingPct":108,"successMove":47,"failMove":-61,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":74}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":108.72}},"DTIL":{"name":"Precision BioSciences","subtitle":"ARCUS in vivo gene editing: PBGENE-HBV ELIMINATE-B Ph1 EASL'26 HIT -- 100% HBsAg decline (n=15), first biopsy cccDNA elimination; PBGENE-DMD Ph1/2 first dosed Aug'26; cash $112.4M to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":25.8,"netCashLocal":89.9,"cashPS":3.4845,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.71,"bear":2.78,"base":6.29,"bull":11.46,"psychedelic_bull":22.87},"weightedTP":6.3,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hbv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.meganuclease.invivo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.meganuclease"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":163},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":82},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":18},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":18},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":185},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":92},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":8},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":8},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":154},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":77},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":23},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":23},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":23}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":375,"totalTAM":18.918,"totalWTD":3.9828675},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-27","asset":"pbgene_hbv","indication":"pbgene_hbv_cure","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-27: PBGENE-HBV ELIMINATE-B Ph1 EASL 2026 late-breaker HIT -- 100% of evaluable pts (n=15) substantial HBsAg decline, first biopsy evidence of direct cccDNA elimination (1-log transcript reduction, 80% editing of residual cccDNA), pgRNA loss 100% (n=6), no DLTs; no functional cures declared yet","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://investor.precisionbiosciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/precision-biosciences-announces-new-and-late-breaking-pbgene-hbv","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Mechanism proven in humans for the first time (direct cccDNA elimination via ARCUS nuclease) with clean safety across 5 cohorts. Falls short of a declared functional cure, which is why the pre-declared success_pos was set at Ph1-appropriate 45 rather than higher.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":2.48436082,"successTP":9.74547823,"baseTP":6.29542235,"swingPct":81,"successMove":39,"failMove":-43,"yourPoS":43,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":37},{"date":"Aug 24 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"pbgene_dmd","indication":"pbgene_dmd_pangen","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-24: PBGENE-DMD FUNCTION-DMD Ph1/2 FIRST PATIENT DOSED -- base pos/apr 22/32 -> declared success 25/35","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":35,"_source":"https://investor.precisionbiosciences.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_sourceUrl":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/precision-biosciences-commences-dosing-in-phase-1-2-function-dmd-study","failTP":4.47260147,"successTP":7.83065708,"baseTP":6.29542235,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":9,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"pbgene_hbv","indication":"pbgene_hbv_cure","title":"PBGENE-HBV ELIMINATE-B Part 1 expansion update + nucleos(t)ide-analogue withdrawal framework (gate to Part 2 / functional-cure readout)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":58,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://investor.precisionbiosciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/precision-biosciences-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.25003085,"successTP":10.9777249,"baseTP":6.29542235,"swingPct":85,"successMove":52,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":43,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":37},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"pbgene_dmd","indication":"pbgene_dmd_pangen","title":"PBGENE-DMD FUNCTION-DMD initial safety data (first dosed patient Aug 2026)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.05635174,"successTP":5.61552459,"baseTP":6.29542235,"swingPct":18,"successMove":-8,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-21,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":10.1}},"DYN":{"name":"Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"FORCE muscle delivery (anti-TfR1 Fab+ASO/PMO) | DYNE-101 DM1 BLA H2'26 + Ph3 HARMONIA | DYNE-251 DMD exon-51 BLA ACCEPTED, Priority Review, PDUFA Jan 21 2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":186.05,"netCashLocal":1090,"cashPS":5.8586,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.9,"bear":8,"base":14.14,"bull":22.48,"psychedelic_bull":29.38},"weightedTP":15.37,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.tfr1_dmpk","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.tfr1_pmo","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.tfr1_dux4","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.tfr1_gaa"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":80},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":69},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":61},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":40},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":20},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":96},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":92},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":37},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":26},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":16},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":15},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":8},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":109},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":40},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":29},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":188,"totalTAM":19.687,"totalWTD":6.845275},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 26 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-26","asset":"dyne_251","indication":"dmd_exon51","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-26: DYNE-251 (z-rostudirsen) BLA SUBMITTED to FDA for Accelerated Approval (DMD exon-51; potential Q1 2027 launch w/ Priority Review)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/26/3300969/0/en/dyne-therapeutics-announces-submission-of-biologics-license-application-bla-to-u-s-fda-for-z-rostudirsen-in-exon-51-duchenne-muscular-dystrophy-dmd.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"BLA for z-rostudirsen (DYNE-251) 20mg/kg Q4W submitted to FDA on 2026-05-26 based on DELIVER registrational expansion cohort (met primary endpoint). Seeking Accelerated Approval; positioning for potential Q1 2027 launch assuming Priority Review. Soft regulatory milestone completed; assumptions already at full success (100/100).","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_note":"2026-05-26: BLA submission confirmed via DYN PR / GlobeNewswire. Catalyst was a non-binary submission milestone -- de-risks regulatory path; no assumption shift needed.","failTP":14.0518319,"successTP":17.2887692,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":11,"successMove":7,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":93,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Jun 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-03","asset":"dyne_101","indication":"dm1_dyne101","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-03: Z-Basivarsen (DYNE-101) ACHIEVE registrational expansion cohort enrollment COMPLETE -- topline Q1 2027 (de-risks BLA path + supports confirmatory data for AA-to-full bridge)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"Dyne IR Jun 3 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"ACHIEVE registrational expansion cohort fully enrolled. Locks Q1 2027 topline timing; aligns with BLA + confirmatory data path.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":12.4435474,"successTP":18.9149209,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":13,"successMove":7,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Jul 20 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-20","asset":"dyne_251","indication":"dmd_exon51","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-20: DYNE-251 (z-rostudirsen) BLA ACCEPTED by FDA w/ PRIORITY REVIEW; PDUFA target Jan 21 2027; potential US launch Q1 2027 (DMD exon-51, Accelerated Approval)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/20/3329635/0/en/dyne-therapeutics-announces-u-s-fda-acceptance-of-biologics-license-application-bla-for-z-rostudirsen-in-exon-51-duchenne-muscular-dystrophy-dmd.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA accepted the DYNE-251 BLA 2026-07-20, granted Priority Review, PDUFA Jan 21 2027 (DELIVER registrational expansion cohort). Regulatory de-risk on top of the May submission; assumptions already at full success (100/100), no shift.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":14.0518319,"successTP":17.2887692,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":11,"successMove":7,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":93,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"dyne_101","indication":"dm1_dyne101","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-08: PEER MISS -- Novartis/Avidity del-desiran FAILED its Ph3 HARBOR primary in DM1 (video hand-opening time, n=159, 54 weeks) though with activity on secondary/exploratory endpoints -- the closest competitor to z-basivarsen, same disease, same anti-TfR1 delivery concept, and a direct read-across to whether DMPK knockdown converts into measured function","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":72,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"binary":false,"_outcome":"completed","_source":"Novartis media release Sep 8 2026 (HARBOR update)","_note":"Read-across already applied to dyne_101.dm1_dyne101 in all five scenarios (dated 2026-09-08 / 2026-09-18 events; base now pos 64 / apr 76, below this entry's fail_pos/apr), so no further move on resolution.","failTP":12.3504298,"successTP":19.2693999,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":45,"successMove":25,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":38},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"dyne_101","indication":"dm1_dyne101","title":"DYNE-101 DM1 BLA submission FDA AA","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Dyne Q4 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.7078313,"successTP":23.9012849,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":37,"successMove":28,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"dyne_101","indication":"dm1_dyne101","title":"DYNE-101 DM1: ACHIEVE REC topline REPORTED Dec 2025; H2 2026 = additional follow-up data + HARMONIA Ph3 enrollment progress + BLA (AA) filing on track","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Dyne Q4 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.7078313,"successTP":23.9012849,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":22,"successMove":17,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Early 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-15","asset":"dyne_251","indication":"dmd_exon51","title":"DYNE-251 potential US launch (DMD exon-51 AA approval)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Dyne pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":14.0518319,"successTP":17.2887692,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":93,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-15","asset":"dyne_101","indication":"dm1_dyne101","title":"Z-Basivarsen ACHIEVE registrational expansion cohort topline (DM1) -- key catalyst for AA-to-full approval bridge + ex-US filings","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"_source":"Dyne IR Jun 3 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.34618643,"successTP":21.0313351,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":76,"successMove":37,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":38},{"date":"2027-2028","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"dyne_101","indication":"dm1_dyne101","title":"Ph3 HARMONIA confirmatory readout (DM1; AA-to-full approval bridge)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Dyne pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.3533819,"successTP":20.9158939,"baseTP":15.3672622,"swingPct":69,"successMove":36,"failMove":-33,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":38}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":14.37}},"EBS":{"name":"Emergent BioSolutions, Inc.","subtitle":"Biodefense + opioid reversal | Q2'26 rev $234.3M (+66%) but naloxone $52.4M (-22%) on OTC NARCAN price/volume; $191.3M NARCAN impairment; FY26 guide CUT to $645-675M from $720-760M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":51.3,"netCashLocal":-435.1,"cashPS":-8.4815,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":3.27,"bull":12.81,"psychedelic_bull":37.81},"weightedTP":6.09,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.substance_use","infectious_disease.vaccines.smallpox_mpox","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.vaccines.travel"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_antagonist_nasal","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","_diversified.branded.biodefense_stockpile","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.plasma_derived.ivig.hyperimmune_diversified","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.ivig"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":101},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":64},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":36},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":36},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":36},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.smallpox_mpox","purity":28}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":101},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":64},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":36},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":36},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":36},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.smallpox_mpox","purity":28}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":8.33,"totalWTD":8.33},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 30 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-04-30","asset":"narcan","indication":"narcan_overdose","title":"REPORTED: EBS Q1 2026 -- revenue $156M, adj EBITDA $36M (23% margin); net debt cut -$122M","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"EBS Q1 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-04-30 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":6.08820663,"successTP":6.08820663,"baseTP":6.08820663,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 5 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"narcan","indication":"narcan_overdose","title":"REPORTED: EBS Q2 2026 (Aug 5 2026) -- revenue $234.3M (+66% YoY, MCM-driven: smallpox $101.6M, BAT $54.1M, anthrax $12.3M) BUT naloxone $52.4M (-22% YoY) on unfavourable OTC NARCAN price/volume mix in US public-interest channels; $191.3M non-cash NARCAN asset-group impairment; net loss $180.2M; FY26 revenue guidance CUT to $645-675M from $720-760M","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Emergent BioSolutions Q2 2026 earnings PR (GlobeNewswire, Aug 5 2026) + Form 8-K; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/05/3339720/33240/en/emergent-biosolutions-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Reported Aug 5 2026 (config had estimated Aug 15). Materially negative for the NARCAN franchise. Non-binary catalyst (pos/apr 100/100 both ways) so no assumption move; the read-through is to val.commercialRevM, which is valuation structure and NOT auto-edited -- FLAGGED for manual re-rate on the 2026-08-18 freshness pass.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":6.08820663,"successTP":6.08820663,"baseTP":6.08820663,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":950,"lenses":{"comparable":24.1,"eeRel":3.3939}},"EDIT":{"name":"Editas Medicine","subtitle":"Single-asset bet on EDIT-401 in vivo CRISPR LDLR upregulation HeFH (CTN Aug'26; first human data Q1'27; dose-finding 2027); ~153.6M sh; $3.50 warrants OTM; cash $212M to 2H'28","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":153.58,"netCashLocal":211.6,"cashPS":1.3778,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.99,"bear":1.69,"base":8.54,"bull":13.6,"psychedelic_bull":28.15},"weightedTP":7.56,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9.invivo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":100}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":304,"totalTAM":21.45,"totalWTD":5.308875},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-08","asset":"edit401","indication":"edit401_hefh","title":"REPORTED 2026-10-08: EDIT-401 Strive Ph1/2 cleared to start -- Australian HREC approval + TGA CTN completed (NZ under review; 5 AU/NZ sites); dosing on track 2026","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/EDIT/ars-editas-medicine-inc-sec-filing-56d6259a5f64.html","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650664/000165066426000093/editasmedicinepressrelease.htm","failTP":2.51831413,"successTP":13.8413576,"baseTP":7.56339334,"swingPct":30,"successMove":17,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"edit401","indication":"edit401_hefh","title":"EDIT-401 FIH HeFH first-in-human data update (LDL-C reduction in humans) -- SLIPPED: first data update guided Q1 2027, Part 1 topline 2027 (Q2 8-K Aug 5 2026; was YE 2026)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/EDIT/ars-editas-medicine-inc-sec-filing-56d6259a5f64.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.24172434,"successTP":14.4272494,"baseTP":7.56339334,"swingPct":122,"successMove":64,"failMove":-59,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":60},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"edit401","indication":"edit401_hefh","title":"EDIT-401 dose-finding topline (Ph2)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/EDIT/ars-editas-medicine-inc-sec-filing-56d6259a5f64.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.96115041,"successTP":20.496435,"baseTP":7.56339334,"swingPct":245,"successMove":171,"failMove":-74,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":36,"daysOut":null,"materiality":86}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":12.65},"readouts":[{"a":"edit401","ind":"edit401_hefh","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","endpoint":"ldl_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":45.3127325,"lo":4.15289269,"hi":79.4879225,"pBeatBest":0.2187,"bestDrug":"evolocumab","bestValue":59},{"a":"edit401","ind":"edit401_hefh","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","endpoint":"ldl_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":41.0550667,"lo":-5.23467242,"hi":76.9149507,"pBeatBest":0.1793,"bestDrug":"evolocumab","bestValue":59}]},"EIKN":{"name":"Eikon Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"EIK1001 TLR7/8 dual agonist: TeLuRide-008 Ph2/3 REGISTRATIONAL 1L NSCLC first patient dosed Jul 27'26 (ASCO'26 Ph2 data positive) + EIK1003 PARP1-selective + EIK1005 WRN | IPO Feb'26 | Cash $531M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":54.1,"netCashLocal":531.2,"cashPS":9.8189,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.09,"bear":7.35,"base":11.86,"bull":15.77,"psychedelic_bull":20.18},"weightedTP":11.79,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal"],"modalities":["small_molecule.immune_receptor.tlr_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.immune_receptor","small_molecule.enzyme.parp1_selective","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.enzyme.werner_helicase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":252,"totalTAM":44.4861,"totalWTD":12.6363684},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-27","asset":"eik1001","indication":"eik1001_nsclc","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-27: TeLuRide-008 Ph2/3 REGISTRATIONAL trial FIRST PATIENT DOSED -- EIK1001 + pembrolizumab + histology-appropriate chemotherapy, 1L treatment-naive stage 4 NSCLC","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"_source":"Eikon PR 2026-07-27 / Q2 2026 8-K Ex-99.1","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001861123/000119312526349154/eikn-ex99_1.htm","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Registrational-trial start is a process milestone, not efficacy -- fail_*=success_*=current base so it carries no drift","failTP":10.5570738,"successTP":12.7381672,"baseTP":11.7867256,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"eik1001","indication":"eik1001_nsclc","title":"EIK1001 TeLuRide-005 Ph2 NSCLC updated data at ESMO 2026 (7 abstracts across EIK1001/EIK1003 plus first clinical findings for EIK1004 and EIK1005); ASCO 2026 already showed activity across PD-(L)1 TPS subgroups","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"high","_source":"Eikon Q2 2026 8-K Ex-99.1 (2026-08-13)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001861123/000119312526349154/eikn-ex99_1.htm","failTP":9.09358087,"successTP":12.6419007,"baseTP":11.7867256,"swingPct":30,"successMove":7,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"eik1003","indication":"eik1003_ovarian","title":"EIK1003 PARP1-selective Ph1/2 dose escalation interim","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.5312451,"successTP":11.8865473,"baseTP":11.7867256,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"eik1001","indication":"eik1001_melanoma","title":"EIK1001 Ph2/3 melanoma + pembro interim","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.2411991,"successTP":11.9524269,"baseTP":11.7867256,"swingPct":6,"successMove":1,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":11.77},"readouts":[{"a":"eik1001","ind":"eik1001_nsclc","ds":"2026-10-31","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":8.55423201,"lo":3.45655595,"hi":13.485753,"pBeatBest":0.2471,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"ELDN":{"name":"Eledon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Tegoprubart anti-CD40L: BESTOW Ph2 positive, EoP2 CLEARED -- global Ph3 (~600 pts, 52wk non-inferiority vs tacrolimus) starts late'26; islet T1D 12/12 insulin-free (ADA'26) | Cash $88.8M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":77.3,"netCashLocal":88.8,"cashPS":1.1488,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.72,"bear":1.32,"base":2.98,"bull":5.37,"psychedelic_bull":7.9},"weightedTP":3.26,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.transplant.solid_organ","immunology","immunology.transplant","immunology.transplant.islet","_platform.xenotransplant_immunosuppression","_platform"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.cd40l_antagonist","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":170},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.transplant.islet","purity":30},{"area":"_platform.xenotransplant_immunosuppression","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":170},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.transplant.islet","purity":30},{"area":"_platform.xenotransplant_immunosuppression","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":124},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.transplant.islet","purity":76},{"area":"_platform.xenotransplant_immunosuppression","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":223,"totalTAM":6.379,"totalWTD":1.97749},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 22 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-22","asset":"tego","indication":"tego_kidney","title":"REPORTED: BESTOW long-term + extension data at ATC 2026 (oral + poster)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"ATC 2026 (Boston, Jun 20-24): BESTOW extension showed sustained higher kidney function vs tacrolimus, statistically significant eGFR benefit at 18mo, no BPAR after 6mo, improved patient-reported outcomes. Positive long-term update (non-binary); assumptions unchanged. Source: Eledon ATC press release Jun 22 2026 (globenewswire/biospace).","failTP":1.18790594,"successTP":1.89967609,"baseTP":3.26453391,"swingPct":22,"successMove":-42,"failMove":-64,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-53,"daysOut":null,"materiality":53},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tego","indication":"tego_islet","title":"UChicago + UHN islet T1D additional readouts","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.990825,"successTP":3.97665711,"baseTP":3.26453391,"swingPct":61,"successMove":22,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"Late 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tego","indication":"tego_kidney","title":"Global Ph3 kidney transplant INITIATION (~600 pts, non-inferiority vs tacrolimus at 52wk) -- EoP2 meeting cleared -- registered NCT07835581 (not yet recruiting, est. start Oct 2026)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"Eledon Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-14","failTP":1.18790594,"successTP":1.89967609,"baseTP":3.26453391,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-30","asset":"tego","indication":"tego_kidney","title":"Ph3 BESTOW first patient dosed","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.18790594,"successTP":1.89967609,"baseTP":3.26453391,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":4.73}},"ELTX":{"name":"Elicio Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"AMP off-the-shelf mKRAS peptide vaccine | ELI-002 7P Ph2 MISSED primary DFS Jun'26; low-MRD subset 23.8 vs 12.8mo -> refined Ph3 needs partner | $15M raise Jul'26 -> ~$28.8M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":28.91,"netCashLocal":27,"cashPS":0.9339,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.06,"bear":0.18,"base":0.84,"bull":3.29,"psychedelic_bull":6.77},"weightedTP":1.42,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal.adjuvant","oncology.gi.colorectal"],"modalities":["vaccine.therapeutic.peptide.kras_neoantigen","vaccine","vaccine.therapeutic","vaccine.therapeutic.peptide"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":190},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.adjuvant","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":194},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.adjuvant","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":136},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.adjuvant","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":32}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":976,"totalTAM":12.9522,"totalWTD":1.2034113},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 6 2026 (closed)","dateSort":"2026-07-06","asset":"eli002","indication":"eli002_pdac_adj","title":"REPORTED: Elicio closed a $15M registered direct offering (Jul 6 2026; 4,380,313 shares at ~$3.42 gross) -- net cash to ~$28.8M, pushing the going-concern wall past Q4 2026","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":38,"_source":"Elicio PR \"Elicio Therapeutics Announces Closing of $15 Million Registered Direct Offering\" (GlobeNewswire, Jul 6 2026) + pricing PR Jul 1-2 2026 + Form 8-K","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Disclosed financing -- cash and sharesOut restated factually per Step 3 (financing -> cash/debt if disclosed). No assumption change.","failTP":0.430261826,"successTP":2.70569187,"baseTP":1.4165494,"swingPct":81,"successMove":46,"failMove":-35,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":-27,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"eli002","indication":"eli002_pdac_adj","title":"Strategic financing / partnership decision (going-concern resolution)","type":"partnership","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":12,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":45,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ELTX/10-q-elicio-therapeutics-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-47ab40902983.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.200608563,"successTP":2.81891577,"baseTP":1.4165494,"swingPct":74,"successMove":40,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":-27,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"eli002","indication":"eli002_pdac_adj","title":"End-of-Phase 2 FDA meeting + refined Ph3 design in R0-resected subgroup (post AMPLIFY-7P ITT miss) -- ROLLED: no EoP2 meeting announced; ESMO LBA83 oral Oct 23 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":45,"_source":"https://whbl.com/2026/06/15/elicio-shares-slide-after-pancreatic-cancer-vaccine-falls-short-in-mid-stage-study/","_confidence":"medium","_note":"2026-10-09 freshness: rolled H2 2026 -> H1 2027 (unguided). Sep 24 2026 PR: AMPLIFY-7P late-breaking proffered-paper oral at ESMO 2026 (LBA83, Oct 23); no FDA meeting mentioned. Company framing is now 'R0 resected' subgroup. 2026-09-15 self-audit: UNVERIFIED -- Q2'26 update (Aug 13) does not mention an End-of-Phase 2 meeting; company is evaluating R0 resected subgroups to refine the Ph3 strategy. Left open.","failTP":0.270100371,"successTP":2.81891577,"baseTP":1.4165494,"swingPct":90,"successMove":50,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":-31,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"eli002","indication":"eli002_pdac_adj","title":"AMPLIFY-7P updated DFS/OS + final low-MRD subgroup analysis","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":38,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ELTX/elicio-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-c8pumq9tv8a2.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.300553606,"successTP":2.97459862,"baseTP":1.4165494,"swingPct":189,"successMove":110,"failMove":-79,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-32,"daysOut":null,"materiality":66}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.81}},"ELVN":{"name":"Enliven Therapeutics","subtitle":"ELVN-001 BCR-ABL CML Ph1 ENABLE positive (EHA Jun'26 oral) → ENABLE-2 Ph3 2L+ start H2'26; ELVN-002 HER2 DEPRIORITIZED; cash $895M (Jun'26 raise) to 2030","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":75,"netCashLocal":895.2,"cashPS":11.936,"tps":{"mega_bear":13.71,"bear":21.97,"base":31.04,"bull":38.38,"psychedelic_bull":44.34},"weightedTP":30.61,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.cml","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.her2"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":178},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":198},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":59,"totalTAM":7.64585,"totalWTD":4.79478489},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-13","asset":"elvn001","indication":"elvn001_cml","title":"REPORTED: ELVN-001 EHA 2026 oral -- additional positive Ph1 data CML (heavily pretreated)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/enliven-therapeutics-announces-oral-presentation-at-the-eha-2026-congress-featuring-additional-positive-phase-1-clinical-trial-data-for-elvn-001-in-cml-302769668.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Auto-resolved by title keyword on 2026-06-15 (catalyst dateSort 2026-06-13 in past).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","_autoResolvedByKeyword":true,"failTP":24.6286062,"successTP":36.8329916,"baseTP":30.6063824,"swingPct":34,"successMove":17,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":53},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"elvn002","indication":"elvn002_nsclc","title":"ELVN-002 HER2 NSCLC Ph1 monotherapy + combo data","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://ir.enliventherapeutics.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":30.5649894,"successTP":30.8633691,"baseTP":30.6063824,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"elvn001","indication":"elvn001_cml","title":"ELVN-001 ENABLE-2 Ph3 pivotal 2L+ CML trial initiation -- not yet started as of Aug 5 2026 Q2 PR, still guided H2'26","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.enliventherapeutics.com/news-releases","_confidence":"high","failTP":22.7661744,"successTP":35.6213433,"baseTP":30.6063824,"swingPct":13,"successMove":5,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-09-30","asset":"elvn001","indication":"elvn001_cml","title":"ELVN-001 ENABLE-2 Ph3 CML topline readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://ir.enliventherapeutics.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.7762657,"successTP":36.2847349,"baseTP":30.6063824,"swingPct":74,"successMove":19,"failMove":-55,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":63}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":30.78}},"EMCURE":{"name":"Emcure Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Indian branded Rx + intl: IPO Jul 10 2024 INR 1,952cr; FY23 rev INR 5,986cr / India ~53% of sales; Bain Capital prior investor; women's health + CV + GI focus","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":189.5,"netCashLocal":2500,"cashPS":13.1926,"tps":{"mega_bear":1906.97,"bear":2276.02,"base":2793.03,"bull":3378.26,"psychedelic_bull":4094.69},"weightedTP":2829.58,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.women_health_cv_gi","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":35.6,"totalWTD":35.6},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"emcure_franchise","indication":"emcure_diversified","title":"Emcure FY 2026 revenue execution + women's health + intl scaling","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.business-standard.com/markets/ipo/emcure-pharmaceuticals-ltd-ipo-16966","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2394.19512,"successTP":3306.96332,"baseTP":2829.58443,"swingPct":10,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30}],"salesM2025":948,"lenses":{"comparable":2715.36,"peRel":1.1012}},"EMS_PHARMA":{"name":"EMS Pharma / Grupo NC","subtitle":"Largest Brazilian pharma by units (~9-10% market share, Sanchez family-owned via Grupo NC); generics + branded specialty (Brainfarma + Legrand + Germed + Novamed + NC Farma); Tâmisa/Ciclo 21 oral...","currency":"BRL","country":"BR","region":"AMERICAS.LATAM","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["women_health.menopause.hrt","women_health","women_health.menopause","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns","cns.pain","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products","_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.estrogen_progestin","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","_diversified.generics.cardiovascular_diversified","_diversified","_diversified.generics","_diversified.branded.pain_legacy","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.enzyme.pde5","small_molecule.enzyme","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":167},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":83},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":26},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":13},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":7},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":4},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":167},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":83},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":26},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":13},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":7},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":4},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":25.735,"totalWTD":25.735},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":8000},"ENTA":{"name":"Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"MAVYRET HCV royalty FY25 $65M (net ~$30M post-OMERS); zelicapavir + EDP-323 RSV Ph3-enabling + EDP-978 KIT CSU + EPS-3903 STAT6 AD | Cash $220M to 3.5y","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":29.13,"netCashLocal":211.5,"cashPS":7.2606,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.02,"bear":13.13,"base":32.24,"bull":40.1,"psychedelic_bull":50.56},"weightedTP":25.72,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hcv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.rsv_antiviral"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antiviral.ns3_protease","small_molecule","small_molecule.antiviral","small_molecule.antiviral.rsv_n_protein","small_molecule.antiviral.rsv_l_polymerase"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":122},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rsv_antiviral","purity":78}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":166},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rsv_antiviral","purity":34}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":157},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.rsv_antiviral","purity":43}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":36,"totalTAM":7.208,"totalWTD":5.2999979},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"edp323","indication":"edp323_rsv","title":"EDP-323 Ph3 trial design announcement","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":23.9115792,"successTP":25.187658,"baseTP":25.7188131,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zeli","indication":"zeli_rsv","title":"Zelicapavir registrational Ph2b/3 in high-risk adults (EoP2 cleared Jun 2026; initiate Q4 2026, topline 2027)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_note":"2026-06-18: Enanta 8-K -- zelicapavir advanced to registrational Ph2b/3 in high-risk adults after successful FDA End-of-Phase-2 meeting; adult trial Q4 2026, pediatric Ph2b Q3 2026, topline 2027 (sec.gov ENTA 8-K 000119312526274950)","failTP":23.0609039,"successTP":24.8968296,"baseTP":25.7188131,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":30,"lenses":{"comparable":18.74}},"EOLS":{"name":"Evolus, Inc.","subtitle":"Aesthetics neurotoxin: Jeuveau + Evolysse HA fillers (Sculpt in FDA review); Q2'26 rev $84.1M (+21%), FY26 guide RAISED $330-337M; 3rd straight +adj-EBITDA qtr; 2028 target $450-500M; net debt ~$112M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":65.1,"netCashLocal":-111.5,"cashPS":-1.7127,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.26,"bear":5.83,"base":9.42,"bull":14.61,"psychedelic_bull":21.44},"weightedTP":10.47,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","dermatology.aesthetics.filler"],"modalities":["biological_extract.botulinum.toxin_type_a","biological_extract","biological_extract.botulinum","aesthetic_or_other.filler.hyaluronic","aesthetic_or_other","aesthetic_or_other.filler"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":106},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":94}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":106},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":94}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":193},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":7}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":15.838,"totalWTD":15.838},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"jeuveau","indication":"jeu_glab","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-03: tariff exposure RESOLVED FAVOURABLY -- Jeuveau is EXEMPT from tariffs (Evolus subject to a 10% company-level tariff), and a full year of Jeuveau inventory was imported ahead of the 15% rate with no cash impact on payment terms","type":"pricing","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Evolus Q2 2026 8-K Ex-99.1 (2026-08-03)","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001570562/000162828026053384/q22026eolsex991.htm","failTP":10.4689017,"successTP":10.4689017,"baseTP":10.4689017,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":297,"lenses":{"comparable":20.47}},"EQ":{"name":"Equillium","subtitle":"Post-itolizumab pivot: EQ504 oral AhR modulator (non-immunosuppressive, IL-10/IL-22; enteric for UC + inhaled for lung) Ph1 PoM mid-late'26; cash $61M to 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":111.92,"netCashLocal":57.2,"cashPS":0.5111,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.19,"bear":0.25,"base":0.45,"bull":0.79,"psychedelic_bull":1.3},"weightedTP":0.44,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.transplant.cgvhd","immunology.transplant"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transcription_factor.ahr_modulator","small_molecule","small_molecule.transcription_factor","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd6","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":157},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":78},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":43},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":22}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":192},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":96},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":0}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":395,"totalTAM":21.19,"totalWTD":4.280625},"catalysts":[{"date":"Early Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"eq504","indication":"eq504_uc","title":"EQ504 Phase 1 first-in-human initiation (healthy volunteers SAD/MAD w/ GI biopsies CYP1A1 + food effect; Australia) -- TGA CTN + ethics cleared Oct 5 2026 (8-K); dosing expected early Nov 2026","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/EQ/equillium-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-corporate-6hi653b3eqri.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.274935028,"successTP":0.636016891,"baseTP":0.437096912,"swingPct":17,"successMove":9,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"mid-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"eq504","indication":"eq504_uc","title":"EQ504 Phase 1 PoM topline (~6 months post Q4 2026 initiation; IL-10/IL-22 biomarker + safety) -- SLIPPED from YE 2026","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/EQ/equillium-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-corporate-6hi653b3eqri.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.219922802,"successTP":0.661049717,"baseTP":0.437096912,"swingPct":71,"successMove":36,"failMove":-35,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"eq504","indication":"eq504_uc","title":"EQ504 Phase 2 UC trial initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":58,"_source":"https://www.equilliumbio.com/pipeline/default.aspx","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.274935028,"successTP":0.656281559,"baseTP":0.437096912,"swingPct":26,"successMove":15,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.54},"readouts":[{"a":"eq504","ind":"eq504_uc","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":11.2302182,"lo":-7.13557677,"hi":29.1565785,"pBeatBest":0.39485,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7}]},"ERAS":{"name":"Erasca","subtitle":"RAS franchise | ERAS-0015 pan-RAS glue: FDA FAST TRACK PDAC Aug 24'26, 57% uORR8wk 2L+ G12X PDAC; Ph3 panc + 2 pivotal lung | ERAS-4001 H2'26 | cash ~$978M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":346.95,"netCashLocal":978.5,"cashPS":2.8203,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.73,"bear":4.07,"base":6.72,"bull":10.65,"psychedelic_bull":14.9},"weightedTP":6.73,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","oncology","oncology.tissue_agnostic","oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12c"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.ras_glue","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.pan_kras"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":138},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12c","purity":62}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":173},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12c","purity":27}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":196},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12c","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":268,"totalTAM":17.109,"totalWTD":4.65140435},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-15","asset":"eras0015","indication":"eras0015_kras_g12d","title":"REPORTED 2026-03-15: Naporafenib license TERMINATED with Novartis (effective Jun 3 2026) + ERAS-007/601/801 ended -- refocus on RAS franchise (ERAS-0015 + ERAS-4001)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"Erasca PR Mar 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Strategic refocus on pan-RAS molecular glue (ERAS-0015) + pan-KRAS (ERAS-4001) franchise. Capital reallocation toward higher-conviction RAS programs. Cash runway extended >3yr.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":4.35355887,"successTP":8.94183282,"baseTP":6.73199275,"swingPct":34,"successMove":17,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":34,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"eras0015","indication":"eras0015_kras_g12d","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-15: Merck KEYTRUDA combo collaboration -- ERAS-0015 + pembrolizumab in pan-RAS molecular glue Ph1b/2","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":62,"_source":"Erasca IR May 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Merck KEYTRUDA combo deal validates ERAS-0015 mechanism + provides Ph1b/2 combo path. Non-dilutive validation.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":4.81169759,"successTP":9.0280731,"baseTP":6.73199275,"swingPct":25,"successMove":14,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":34,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"eras0015","indication":"eras0015_kras_g12d","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-24: FDA Fast Track Designation for ERAS-0015 in metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma (57% uORR8wk 2L+ KRAS G12X PDAC @32mg RP2D; Ph3 panc + 2 pivotal lung trials planned)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/24/3349684/0/en/erasca-granted-fda-fast-track-designation-for-pan-ras-molecular-glue-eras-0015-in-patients-with-metastatic-pancreatic-adenocarcinoma.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Regulatory designation -- expedites development/review and signals FDA engagement on the planned pancreatic Ph3, but is not itself an efficacy readout. Assumptions left at the pre-declared post-Merck-deal level (55/62); no PoS change taken.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":4.81169759,"successTP":9.0280731,"baseTP":6.73199275,"swingPct":32,"successMove":17,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":34,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"eras4001","indication":"eras4001_kras_g12c","title":"ERAS-4001 pan-KRAS Ph1 dose-escalation preliminary safety + early efficacy","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001761918/000119312526216739/eras-ex99_1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.60393685,"successTP":6.89171747,"baseTP":6.73199275,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Nov 20 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-20","asset":"eras0015","indication":"eras0015_kras_g12d","title":"ERAS-0015 AURORAS-1 updated monotherapy data (more pts, longer follow-up) -- oral at EORTC-NCI-AACR, Barcelona; + ERAS-0015/4001 synergy preclinical poster","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359447/0/en/erasca-announces-multiple-presentations-at-the-upcoming-38th-eortc-nci-aacr-symposium.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.61755989,"successTP":2.80211933,"baseTP":6.73199275,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-41,"failMove":-43,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-41,"daysOut":null,"materiality":42},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"eras0015","indication":"eras0015_kras_g12d","title":"ERAS-0015 registration-enabling program start: Ph3 in metastatic PDAC + two potentially pivotal NSCLC trials","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/24/3349684/0/en/erasca-granted-fda-fast-track-designation-for-pan-ras-molecular-glue-eras-0015-in-patients-with-metastatic-pancreatic-adenocarcinoma.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.35355887,"successTP":9.57838918,"baseTP":6.73199275,"swingPct":23,"successMove":13,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"eras0015","indication":"eras0015_kras_g12d","title":"ERAS-0015 pan-RAS Ph1 AURORAS-1 expansion + panitumumab-combo data (SLIPPED from H2'26 -- company now guides 1H 2027)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/11/3343134/0/en/erasca-reports-second-quarter-2026-business-updates-and-financial-results.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.078056,"successTP":9.12570982,"baseTP":6.73199275,"swingPct":63,"successMove":25,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":42}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.78}},"ERIS":{"name":"Eris Lifesciences","subtitle":"India branded chronic: FY26 guide INR 3,200 Cr / EBITDA INR 1,150 Cr (36% margin); Swiss Parenterals 100% Jan'26 (80 ctry); intl +45% Q3 FY27 target 550-600 Cr; MCap INR 185B","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":138.57,"netCashLocal":5000,"cashPS":36.0828,"tps":{"mega_bear":659.08,"bear":873.43,"base":1114.52,"bull":1518.83,"psychedelic_bull":1923.19},"weightedTP":1153.4,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.india_branded_chronic","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":4,"totalWTD":4},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"eris_chronic_franchise","indication":"eris_branded_chronic","title":"Eris FY 2026 (Apr'25-Mar'26) chronic franchise +15-18% growth + biosimilars launch","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.screener.in/company/ERIS/consolidated/","_confidence":"high","failTP":906.857434,"successTP":1425.46781,"baseTP":1153.4049,"swingPct":14,"successMove":7,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":384,"lenses":{"comparable":1232.87,"peRel":1.4507}},"ESPR":{"name":"Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. (private; ARCHIMED portfolio since Jul 2026)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- ARCHIMED take-private CLOSED 13-Jul-2026 at $3.16/sh + up to $100M CVRs, delisted · NEXLETOL/NEXLIZET FY25 $403M · ENBUMYST (Corstasis, Apr'26)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.acl","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.transporter.nkcc2_loop","small_molecule.transporter"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":116},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":84},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":42}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":116},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":84},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":42}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":196},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":98},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":36.9,"totalWTD":36.9},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":408},"ETON":{"name":"Eton Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"US ultra-rare commercial: 11 marketed (DESMODA Mar'26, IMPAVIDO Sep'26); Q2'26 rev $37.6M +99%, profitable; FY26 guide raised >$145M; ASN-001 NDA H2'27; cash $26.8M, debt $27.9M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":28.58,"netCashLocal":-1.1,"cashPS":-0.0385,"tps":{"mega_bear":20.12,"bear":25.24,"base":29.68,"bull":38.68,"psychedelic_bull":47.21},"weightedTP":31.03,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.pituitary.diabetes_insipidus","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","endocrine.adrenal.cah","endocrine.adrenal","metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.tyrosinemia_t1","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.homocystinuria","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","dermatology.vascular_malformation.infantile_hemangioma","dermatology","dermatology.vascular_malformation"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.rare_endocrine","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.rare_metabolic","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.igf1","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone","small_molecule.gpcr.beta_blocker","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":55},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":49},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":38},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":33},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":32},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":25},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":19},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.homocystinuria","purity":8},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":7},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.diabetes_insipidus","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":4},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.tyrosinemia_t1","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.infantile_hemangioma","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":55},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":49},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":38},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":33},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":32},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":25},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":19},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.homocystinuria","purity":8},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":7},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.diabetes_insipidus","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":4},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.tyrosinemia_t1","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.infantile_hemangioma","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":72},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.infantile_hemangioma","purity":44},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":36},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":29},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":22},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":21},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.diabetes_insipidus","purity":14},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":9},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.tyrosinemia_t1","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.homocystinuria","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":5}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":62,"rarePurityWtd":62,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":19.2468,"totalWTD":19.2468},"catalysts":[{"date":"Feb 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-25","asset":"rare_endocrine_portfolio","indication":"eton_di","title":"REPORTED: ET-600 (DESMODA, desmopressin oral solution) FDA APPROVED Feb 25 2026 for central diabetes insipidus","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":32,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://ir.etonpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/eton-pharmaceuticals-announces-fda-acceptance-new-drug-1","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved DESMODA (desmopressin acetate oral solution 0.05 mg/mL) for central diabetes insipidus on 2026-02-25, meeting PDUFA date; first/only FDA-approved oral liquid desmopressin; commercial launch expected Mar 9 2026. Est. peak sales $30-50M.","failTP":28.3845107,"successTP":31.6523057,"baseTP":31.0258497,"swingPct":11,"successMove":2,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"rare_metabolic_portfolio","indication":"eton_wilson","title":"ET-700 (extended-release zinc acetate) pilot study readout vs GALZIN + placebo -- gates the pivotal start guided for early 2027 (line extension on the existing commercial Wilson's franchise -- no change to the approved-product assumption either way)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Eton Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-13","_confidence":"medium","failTP":30.5661848,"successTP":31.4886862,"baseTP":31.0258497,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"rare_endocrine_portfolio","indication":"eton_di","title":"AMGLIDIA (glibenclamide oral suspension, neonatal diabetes; FDA Fast Track) NDA submission by year-end 2026 after bioavailability study (not a modelled indication -- no assumption change)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001710340/000143774926027672/ex_974033.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":28.0445833,"successTP":29.2057245,"baseTP":31.0258497,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rare_endocrine_portfolio","indication":"eton_adrenal","title":"KHINDIVI (hydrocortisone oral solution) Prior Approval Supplement decision -- expanded indication, potential H1 2027 approval","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001710340/000143774926027672/ex_974033.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":15.9066593,"successTP":19.6091002,"baseTP":31.0258497,"swingPct":10,"successMove":-30,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-30,"daysOut":null,"materiality":34},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"rare_endocrine_portfolio","indication":"eton_adrenal","title":"ASN-001 (timolol topical gel, infantile hemangioma; licensed from Auson Jul 31 2026) NDA submission after bioavailability bridging study -- Eton calls it its largest pipeline revenue opportunity (not a modelled indication)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001710340/000143774926027672/ex_974033.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":15.9066593,"successTP":19.6091002,"baseTP":31.0258497,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":37.88,"eeRel":0.3326,"peRel":0.1412}},"EUROFARMA":{"name":"Eurofarma Laboratórios","subtitle":"Top 2-3 Brazilian pharma by revenue (Baggio family-owned); biosimilars via Bionovis consortium (insulin glargine, filgrastim, pegfilgrastim, trastuzumab/rituximab/bevacizumab biosimilars) +...","currency":"BRL","country":"BR","region":"AMERICAS.LATAM","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.semaglutide","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_diversified","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","peptide.hormone_analog.insulin_basal","_diversified.branded.oncology_legacy","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.brazil_branded_rx","_diversified.branded.latam_branded","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":122},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":72},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":22},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":122},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":72},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":22},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":128.5685,"totalWTD":128.5685},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":12600},"EUZ":{"name":"Eckert & Ziegler SE","subtitle":"German radiopharma+isotopes: FY25 rev €312M (+5%) NI +46% €48.8M EPS €0.78; Medical €171M +15%; FY26 guide €320M/€80M EBIT; Lu-177 €2M→€7M; MCap EUR 1.06B","currency":"EUR","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":62.57,"netCashLocal":100,"cashPS":1.5982,"tps":{"mega_bear":16.51,"bear":20.85,"base":24.86,"bull":33.1,"psychedelic_bull":41.22},"weightedTP":27,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.medical_isotopes","_platform","_platform.cdmo","_diversified.mixed.isotope_industrial","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1.8,"totalWTD":1.8},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ez_medical","indication":"ez_medical_franchise","title":"Eckert & Ziegler FY 2026 Medical +16-18% + theranostics expansion + CapEx ramp","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/eckert-and-ziegler-stock-de0005659700-radiopharma-specialist-in-focus/69340135","_confidence":"high","failTP":22.5934923,"successTP":31.1830685,"baseTP":27.0036536,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":337,"lenses":{"comparable":28.45,"peRel":1.3914}},"EVMN":{"name":"Evommune","subtitle":"EVO756 oral MRGPRX2 antagonist: CSU Ph2b FAILED Jun'26 + AD Ph2b FAILED Sep 8'26 (both dropped); migraine Ph2b topline 2027; EVO301 IL-18BP Ph2a positive, Ph2b mid-'27; runway into 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":36.02,"netCashLocal":288,"cashPS":7.9956,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.99,"bear":6.44,"base":8.9,"bull":13.4,"psychedelic_bull":16.65},"weightedTP":9.04,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","cns.pain.migraine","cns","cns.pain"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.mrgprx2_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","biologic.antibody.mab.inflammatory","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":82},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":82},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":82},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":37},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":73},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":73},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":73},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":55},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":27}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":99},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":50},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":50},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":50},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":50}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":549,"totalTAM":33.73,"totalWTD":5.200163},"catalysts":[{"date":"mid-2026","dateSort":"2026-08-15","asset":"evo756","indication":"evo756_migraine","title":"REPORTED: EVO756 Ph2b migraine prophylaxis INITIATED Jul 2026 -- first patient dosed (n~330 refractory migraine, 12 wk, doses to 100 mg); pos/apr to declared success 43/53","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":33,"fail_apr":43,"success_pos":43,"success_apr":53,"_source":"https://ir.evommune.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/125/evommune-initiates-phase-2b-clinical-trial-of-mrgprx2-inhibitor-evo756-in-migraine-prophylaxis","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.evommune.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/125/evommune-initiates-phase-2b-clinical-trial-of-mrgprx2-inhibitor-evo756-in-migraine-prophylaxis","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company consistently guided to mid-2026 initiation across Q1 2026 earnings and investor materials","failTP":7.92458295,"successTP":9.88161659,"baseTP":9.04069746,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":43,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"evo756","indication":"evo756_ad","title":"REPORTED (2026-09-08, MISS): EVO756 Ph2b atopic dermatitis FAILED -- did not meet the primary (pct change EASI wk12) or ANY secondary endpoint at ANY dose (n=121, 12wk); generally well tolerated. Company: 'does not plan to advance EVO756 in AD' -- AD DISCONTINUED; EVO756 continues in migraine prophylaxis only","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/evommune-announces-top-line-results-from-evo756-phase-2b-trial-in-moderate-to-severe-atopic-dermatitis","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.04069746,"successTP":14.4799824,"baseTP":9.04069746,"swingPct":60,"successMove":60,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"mid-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"evo301","indication":"evo301_ad","title":"EVO301 Ph2b initiation in atopic dermatitis (company targets mid-2027); UC + CV-inflammation expansion decision","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.04988239,"successTP":7.59604616,"baseTP":9.04069746,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"evo756","indication":"evo756_migraine","title":"EVO756 Ph2b migraine prophylaxis topline (primary: mean change in monthly migraine days) -- company guides 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_confidence":"high","failTP":7.42030445,"successTP":11.5677068,"baseTP":9.04069746,"swingPct":46,"successMove":28,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":43,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":10.39},"readouts":[{"a":"evo756","ind":"evo756_ad","ds":"2026-09-08","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":44.9830933,"lo":0,"hi":89.4468866,"pBeatBest":0.06505,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7}]},"EVT":{"name":"Evotec SE","subtitle":"Evotec: drug-discovery + biomfg CDMO | FY26 guide CUT to EUR 570-610M (2nd profit warning Aug'26; EBITDA -70/-105M loss); net cash ~EUR 40M (gross debt ~436M); serial guide cuts","currency":"EUR","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":177.8,"netCashLocal":40.4,"cashPS":0.2272,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.4,"bear":4.01,"base":6.2,"bull":10.94,"psychedelic_bull":20.98},"weightedTP":7.26,"meta":{"areas":["_platform.cdmo.drug_discovery","_platform","_platform.cdmo","_platform.cdmo.biologics_mfg"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.drug_discovery_research","_platform","_platform.cdmo","_platform.cdmo.biologics_continuous","_platform.cdmo.protein_degradation"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-31","asset":"discovery_preclinical","indication":"dpd_research","title":"REPORTED: Evotec FY25 results + 2026 guidance released (R&D services, biotech-funding-driven; 2026 guidance maintained against discovery-services market softness). Title already recorded the outcome and was missing only the prefix. No valuation consequence: pos/apr pinned at 100","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Evotec IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":7.25747469,"successTP":7.25747469,"baseTP":7.25747469,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 13 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-13","asset":"discovery_preclinical","indication":"dpd_research","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-13: Q2 2026 miss + 2ND PROFIT WARNING -- FY26 revenue guide CUT to EUR 570-610M (from 700-780M) and EBITDA swung to EUR -70 to -105M loss (from +40M). Q2 rev EUR 143.5M (-16% YoY). Discovery/CDMO execution + slow milestone conversion; scenario revenue ladder re-based","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Evotec Q2 2026 report / ad-hoc (Aug 13 2026)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Second profit warning in four months; FY26 guide cut ~EUR 190M. Scenario commercialRevM ladder lowered (base 800->590) to reflect the new guide midpoint.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":7.25747469,"successTP":7.25747469,"baseTP":7.25747469,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bms_protein_degradation","indication":"bms_collab","title":"Evotec partner Phase 2 readouts (up to 4 co-developed molecules)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.evotec.com/news/evotec-receives-milestone-payment-from-bristol-myers-squibb-following-ind-acceptance-in-strategic-protein-degradation-partnership","_confidence":"medium","_note":"Slipped/unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06: BMS protein-degradation collab advanced (BMS-986506 CELMoD Ph1 initiated Mar 2026; $5M IND milestone Nov 2025), but no partner Phase 2 readouts across co-developed molecules reported yet. Date rolled ~1-2Q.","failTP":7.25747469,"successTP":7.25747469,"baseTP":7.25747469,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":845,"lenses":{"comparable":11.93}},"EWTX":{"name":"Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"POST-SERVIER DEAL (Jun 1'26 $2.65B sale of sevasemten + MD biz: $1.55B upfront + $1.1B ms) | Pure CV pipeline: EDG-7500 sarcomere Ph2 HCM Q2 26 data + Ph3 Q4 26 | Cash ~$2.05B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":107.5,"netCashLocal":2050,"cashPS":19.0698,"tps":{"mega_bear":17,"bear":20.18,"base":27.94,"bull":36.66,"psychedelic_bull":50.36},"weightedTP":29.53,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.bmd","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.myosin_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":52},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":50},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.bmd","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":26},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":24},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":149},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":74},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":51},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":26},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.bmd","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":154},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":77},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":46},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":23},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.bmd","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":24,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":652,"totalTAM":32.8,"totalWTD":4.3625355},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"edg7500","indication":"edg7500_hcm","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-01: SERVIER ACQUIRES sevasemten + entire muscular dystrophy business for $2.65B ($1.55B upfront + $1.1B ms) -- EWTX refocuses on cardiovascular; cash ~$2.05B; closing pending HSR H2 26","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_source":"EWTX IR Jun 1 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Major value-crystallization: $1.55B upfront de-risks BS + funds CV through Ph3. CV-only thesis anchored on EDG-7500.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":23.9426835,"successTP":31.4456833,"baseTP":29.5273055,"swingPct":10,"successMove":2,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"edg7500","indication":"edg7500_hcm","title":"REPORTED: EDG-7500 CIRRUS-HCM Phase 2 12-week topline (obstructive + non-obstructive HCM) -- informs Ph3 design + go/no-go decision","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/edgewise-therapeutics-announces-positive-top-line-data-from-12-week-phase-2-cirrus-hcm-trial-with-edg-7500-in-obstructive-and-nonobstructive-hypertrophic-cardiomyopathy-hcm-302801108.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"POSITIVE 12-week Part D topline reported 2026-06-16: improvements in LVOT gradient, NT-proBNP, KCCQ, NYHA class, diastolic parameters; no LVEF <50%; well tolerated across oHCM + nHCM. Supports Ph3 init Q4 2026. Base scenario already reflects this readout (events + pos/apr tuned); nHCM delta vs aficamten modest so no further scenario move.","failTP":21.9765993,"successTP":33.0214278,"baseTP":29.5273055,"swingPct":38,"successMove":12,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"Jul 13 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-13","asset":"edg7500","indication":"edg7500_hcm","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-13: Servier acquisition CLOSED (HSR cleared, ~3mo ahead of modeled H2'26) -- $1.55B upfront cash realized; EWTX now pure-CV (EDG-7500 HCM + EDG-15400 HFpEF)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":58,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"Servier + EWTX PR 2026-07-13 (prnewswire 302822911)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Servier completed acquisition 2026-07-13, HSR cleared, $1.55B upfront realized. Cash ($2.05B) + base narrative already reflect the closing, so NO scenario pos/apr move (would double-count the already-modeled receipt). Pre-declared success_pos/apr 70/78 left as reference; not mechanically applied.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":25.3232154,"successTP":33.8187164,"baseTP":29.5273055,"swingPct":15,"successMove":8,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"sevasemten","indication":"seva_dmd","title":"[DIVESTED to Servier] Sevasemten Phase 3 trial initiation in DMD (10mg dose, post-FDA alignment meeting) -- non-mutation-specific add-on to corticosteroid SoC","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/edgewise-therapeutics-provides-corporate-updates-and-highlights-priorities-for-2026-302658851.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Asset DIVESTED to Servier Jun 1 2026 -- catalyst now belongs to Servier program, not EWTX.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":29.5273055,"successTP":29.5273055,"baseTP":29.5273055,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sevasemten","indication":"seva_becker","title":"[DIVESTED to Servier] Sevasemten GRAND CANYON Phase 3 pivotal readout in Becker muscular dystrophy -- first-in-class fast skeletal myosin inhibitor; primary endpoint NSAA","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/edgewise-therapeutics-provides-corporate-updates-and-highlights-priorities-for-2026-302658851.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Asset DIVESTED to Servier Jun 1 2026 -- catalyst now belongs to Servier program, not EWTX.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":29.5273055,"successTP":29.5273055,"baseTP":29.5273055,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"edg15400","indication":"edg15400_hfpef","title":"EDG-15400 Phase 1 healthy-volunteer SAD/MAD topline -- no readout disclosed as of Sep 18 2026; rolled to the end of the window that still supports the guided H1 2027 Ph2 HFpEF start","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":6,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":22,"success_apr":42,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/edgewise-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-advances-clinical-programs-in-muscular-dystrophy-and-cardiovascular-indications-302764426.html","_confidence":"high","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Q1 2026 report (May) still guided topline 'first half of 2026' with no readout published as of 2026-07-06; rolled ~1 quarter to Q3 2026.","failTP":26.3863862,"successTP":30.7816649,"baseTP":29.5273055,"swingPct":11,"successMove":3,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"edg7500","indication":"edg7500_hcm","title":"EDG-7500 Phase 3 initiation (oHCM + nHCM) -- company now targets Q4 2026 (trial design being finalised after the Part D efficacy/safety package); rolled from Q3'26, no assumption change","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/edgewise-therapeutics-provides-corporate-updates-and-highlights-priorities-for-2026-302658851.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.4004054,"successTP":21.8587234,"baseTP":29.5273055,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":55,"ceilPct":50,"position":"unpositioned","asset":"sevasemten","ind":"seva_becker","area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.bmd","somB":2.4,"tamB":4.4}},"lenses":{"comparable":29.18}},"EXEL":{"name":"Exelixis, Inc.","subtitle":"Multi-tumor TKI | Q2'26 rev $628.7M (+11%), cabozantinib $573.0M | FY26 guide CUT to $2.50-2.55B on slower NET kinetics | zanza STELLAR-303 PDUFA SLIPPED to Mar 3'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":254,"netCashLocal":1400,"cashPS":5.5118,"tps":{"mega_bear":37.74,"bear":54.31,"base":78.69,"bull":108.78,"psychedelic_bull":174.08},"weightedTP":81.52,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.gi","oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","oncology.neuroendocrine","oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","oncology.endocrine","_royalty.exel_cabozantinib","_royalty","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.non_clear_cell","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.multi_tki","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.usp1_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.non_clear_cell","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":3},{"area":"_royalty.exel_cabozantinib","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.non_clear_cell","purity":2},{"area":"_royalty.exel_cabozantinib","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.non_clear_cell","purity":2},{"area":"_royalty.exel_cabozantinib","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":6,"optionality":13,"totalTAM":29.001852,"totalWTD":25.7499866},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"cabometyx_other","indication":"net_pnet","title":"REPORTED 2026-08: FY26 revenue guidance CUT to $2.50-2.55B (from $2.525-2.625B) on slower NET patient kinetics; Q2 revenue $628.7M (+11%), cabozantinib product $573.0M, >45% new-patient share in 2L+ oral NET","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000939767/000093976726000098/exel-20260703.htm","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Top-line growth intact (+11% YoY) and NET share is strong, but the uptake curve is flatter than modeled. Effect is on the commercial revenue base, not on any pipeline PoS -- so no assumption moved; commercialRevM flagged for the user instead.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":81.5209498,"successTP":81.5209498,"baseTP":81.5209498,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"zanzalintinib","indication":"crc_2l","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-25: STELLAR-316 (adjuvant CRC MRD+ Natera ctDNA; DFS primary) Ph3 INITIATED -- NCT07750158 recruiting, start Aug 25 2026 (operational, no assumption move); STELLAR-201 (meningioma) Ph2 enrolling (initiated Apr'26)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Exelixis Q4 2025 IR + Natera collaboration","_confidence":"high","failTP":75.1753742,"successTP":89.6779455,"baseTP":81.5209498,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zanzalintinib","indication":"nccrcc_1l","title":"Zanzalintinib STELLAR-304 nccRCC + nivo Ph3 topline -- SLIPPED to H2 2026 (event-rate driven per Exelixis Q1'26 guidance; dual primary PFS + ORR); enrollment complete May 2025","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Exelixis Jan 2026 prelim FY25 release","_confidence":"high","failTP":80.587235,"successTP":82.1513514,"baseTP":81.5209498,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Mar 3 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-03","asset":"zanzalintinib","indication":"crc_2l","title":"Zanzalintinib STELLAR-303 mCRC + atezo PDUFA -- SLIPPED 3 months to Mar 3 2027: FDA extended the review after Exelixis submitted updated safety and efficacy data, deemed a MAJOR AMENDMENT (8-K 2026-09-11; NDA accepted Feb 2 2026; OS 10.9m vs 9.4m regorafenib ITT)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/939767/000093976726000108/exel-20260910.htm","_confidence":"high","_note":"Jun 21 2026 update: STELLAR-303 second dual-primary endpoint (OS in non-liver-metastases subgroup) final analysis read out NON-confirmatory (interim was HR 0.79, p=0.087). NEUTRAL-to-mildly-negative: the approvable ITT OS primary (10.9 vs 9.4 mo) was already met and is unchanged -- Dec 3 2026 PDUFA path intact. No pos/apr change; NLM-subgroup label-expansion upside removed. Source: BusinessWire 20260621469249. || 2026-09-10 8-K Item 8.01: PDUFA extended three months to Mar 3 2027 following a major amendment (updated safety + efficacy data). Date slip only -- a major amendment is a review-clock event, not an efficacy signal, so pos/apr unchanged and the pre-declared success_*/fail_* pair carries over to the new date.","failTP":71.2445416,"successTP":91.5406705,"baseTP":81.5209498,"swingPct":25,"successMove":12,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"zanzalintinib","indication":"crc_2l","title":"STELLAR-202 (zanzalintinib + pembrolizumab maintenance, squamous NSCLC) Ph2 -- announced May 2026, adds a fourth tumor beachhead beyond CRC/nccRCC/meningioma","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.exelixis.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":59.1578727,"successTP":69.9747076,"baseTP":81.5209498,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":2219,"lenses":{"comparable":57.17,"eeRel":1.1111,"peRel":1.2942}},"EYPT":{"name":"EyePoint Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Durasert ocular: DURAVYU vorolanib insert -- LUGANO Ph3 (wet AMD) MISSED primary BCVA NI Aug 17 2026; LUCIA Q4'26 make-or-break; NDA 1H'27 at risk; DME Ph3 topline Q4'27; cash $180M to Q4'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":86.21,"netCashLocal":180,"cashPS":2.0879,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0.58,"base":2.33,"bull":6.59,"psychedelic_bull":12.06},"weightedTP":1.91,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dme"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.vegfr_intravitreal","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":101},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":99}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":101},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":99}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":130},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":70}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":641,"totalTAM":18.875,"totalWTD":2.548125},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 17 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-17","asset":"duravyu","indication":"duravyu_nvamd","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-17: DURAVYU LUGANO (1st of 2 pivotal Ph3, wet AMD) MISSED primary BCVA non-inferiority vs 2mg aflibercept in the full dataset; ad-hoc analysis excluding a 4% cohort showed NI at nominal p=0.0096 (post-hoc, not primary); durability strong (42% fewer injections, p<0.0001). Stock -~67%.","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Prespecified co-primary BCVA NI missed on the full ITT population -- a registrational miss on the first of two identical pivotals. Post-hoc NI (excl. 9/211 unexplained vision-loss pts) and a strong injection-burden benefit preserve a narrow path, but PoS on the same-design LUCIA and on approval drops materially. Analyst PTs slashed (Citi $35->$17, Jones $43->$20) yet held above the crash price.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/17/3345965/0/en/eyepoint-announces-topline-data-from-lugano-the-first-of-two-pivotal-phase-3-clinical-trials-for-duravyu-2-7mg-in-wet-amd.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.883238324,"successTP":7.4838603,"baseTP":1.90788852,"swingPct":346,"successMove":292,"failMove":-54,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":50,"daysOut":null,"materiality":38},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"duravyu","indication":"duravyu_nvamd","title":"DURAVYU LUCIA (2nd pivotal Ph3, wet AMD) topline -- same BCVA NI-vs-aflibercept design that LUGANO just missed; now the make-or-break readout for the AMD program","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":60,"_source":"EyePoint Q2 2026 update; LUCIA topline guided Q4 2026","_confidence":"high","_note":"PoS de-risked after the LUGANO primary miss: two identical pivotals, first one failed NI on full dataset. Even a LUCIA hit likely needs the durability/subgroup story to carry a narrow label. >90d out, so not a near-term Coiled Spring trigger.","failTP":0.746420767,"successTP":4.13015347,"baseTP":1.90788852,"swingPct":177,"successMove":116,"failMove":-61,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":38}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.08},"readouts":[{"a":"duravyu","ind":"duravyu_nvamd","ds":"2026-08-17","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":-1.21745305,"lo":-4.44843986,"hi":11.2172915,"pBeatBest":0.0237,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3},{"a":"duravyu","ind":"duravyu_nvamd","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":-1.24950182,"lo":-4.43556482,"hi":11.2126886,"pBeatBest":0.02345,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3}]},"FAE":{"name":"Faes Farma S.A.","subtitle":"Iberian specialty pharma; Bilastine antihistamine (Bilaxten Asia-Pac+global) + Calcifediol vit-D + Mesalazine + SIFI Akantior acanthamoeba keratitis Italy/EU + Edol Portugal + Faes animal nutrition","currency":"EUR","country":"ES","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":311,"netCashLocal":-200,"cashPS":-0.6431,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.36,"bear":2.63,"base":4.42,"bull":7.38,"psychedelic_bull":12.46},"weightedTP":5.14,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","respiratory","respiratory.upper_airway","nephrology.ckd.shpt","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","ophthalmology.surface.acanthamoeba_keratitis","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.surface","_established_products.faes_legacy","_established_products","_platform.animal_health","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.h1_antihistamine","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.vdr_analog","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","_diversified.branded.ophthalmology_legacy","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified.animal_health.feed_additive","_diversified.animal_health"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.faes_legacy","purity":90},{"area":"_platform.animal_health","purity":82},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":16},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.shpt","purity":12},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":8},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":6},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.acanthamoeba_keratitis","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.faes_legacy","purity":90},{"area":"_platform.animal_health","purity":82},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":16},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.shpt","purity":12},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":8},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":6},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.acanthamoeba_keratitis","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":6,"rarePurityWtd":6,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":49.2242,"totalWTD":49.2242},"catalysts":[{"date":"Feb 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-26","asset":"sifi_ophthalmology","indication":"sifi_ophth","title":"SIFI Akantior EU rollout milestone (reimbursement IT/ES/DE/FR) -- ROLLED from Sep 30 2026 to FY26 results: DE launched Oct 2024, ES and IT reported live by Q1 2026 (press), FR still unconfirmed","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/sifi-announces-reimbursement-approval-for-akantior-in-spain-302503874.html","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Partial progress: Spain reimbursement approved (available under full reimbursement from Aug 1 2025); Germany available since Oct 2024. No confirmed Italy/France reimbursement decisions published as of 2026-07-06, so the full IT/ES/DE/FR rollout milestone is not yet complete. Rolled ~1 quarter to Q3 2026. | 2026-10-05: rolled again to Feb 26 2027 (FY26 results). Italy reported reimbursed/approved in Faes Q1 2026 results coverage (press, not yet primary-confirmed); France still unconfirmed.","failTP":5.13888889,"successTP":5.13888889,"baseTP":5.13888889,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Feb 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-26","asset":"sifi_ophthalmology","indication":"sifi_ophth","title":"SIFI Akantior US filing strategy update -- ROLLED from Sep 30 2026: NDA guided for H2 2025 (SIFI Dec 2024), no public filing/acceptance found as of Oct 2026; 30 EURm earn-out tied to US launch","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sifi-provides-updates-on-the-uk-and-us-regulatory-pathways-for-akantior-in-the-treatment-of-acanthamoeba-keratitis-302331607.html","failTP":5.13888889,"successTP":5.13888889,"baseTP":5.13888889,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"bilastine","indication":"bilastine_allergy","title":"Faes Farma FY26 annual results + FY27 guide (bilastine licensing + SIFI Akantior EU + dividend)","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":5.13888889,"successTP":5.13888889,"baseTP":5.13888889,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"bilastine","indication":"bilastine_allergy","title":"Faes Farma FY26 annual results (SIFI integration full year)","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":5.13888889,"successTP":5.13888889,"baseTP":5.13888889,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":627,"lenses":{"comparable":3.31,"eeRel":0.6642,"peRel":0.9605}},"FATE":{"name":"Fate Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"iPSC platform: FT819 CD19 CAR-T off-the-shelf SLE/LN/SSc/myositis/AAV; RECLAIM-LN Ph2 DOSING (Aug'26, $15M CIRM grant); FT522 CAR-NK; FT576 BCMA-NK | Ono partnership | Cash $154M to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":137.49,"netCashLocal":153.8,"cashPS":1.1186,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.64,"bear":0.93,"base":1.66,"bull":2.76,"psychedelic_bull":4.63},"weightedTP":1.64,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_ipsc_cd19","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_nk_ipsc_cd19","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_nk_ipsc_bcma"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":148},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":74},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":28},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":12}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":149},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":74},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":32},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":132},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":66},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":60},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":4}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":321,"totalTAM":33.3724,"totalWTD":7.9194195},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"ft819","indication":"ft819_ln","title":"REPORTED (Q2'26 8-K Aug 13 2026): FT819 RECLAIM-LN Ph2 lupus nephritis -- first patient dosed (outpatient)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":1.04632853,"successTP":1.40216337,"baseTP":1.64223057,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":46,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"ft819","indication":"ft819_sle","title":"FT819 ACR Nov 26 updated SLE Ph1 data (more outpatient + bendamustine arm)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"high","failTP":1.08417876,"successTP":2.01058572,"baseTP":1.64223057,"swingPct":56,"successMove":22,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-30","asset":"ft522","indication":"ft522_sle","title":"FT522 initial Ph1 autoimmune data","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.38610816,"successTP":1.79146448,"baseTP":1.64223057,"swingPct":18,"successMove":6,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":4.9},"readouts":[{"a":"ft819","ind":"ft819_sle","ds":"2026-11-15","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":12.0071417,"lo":-15,"hi":50.9291136,"pBeatBest":0.05195,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"ft522","ind":"ft522_sle","ds":"2027-03-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.5317055,"lo":-15,"hi":56.983429,"pBeatBest":0.0837,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"FBRX":{"name":"Forte Biosciences, Inc.","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- acquired by argenx 27-Aug-2026 at $77.00/sh cash (~$2.2B, no CVR), delisted from Nasdaq · FB102 anti-CD122 (vitiligo Ph1b HIT, celiac Ph2 HIT Oct-26, AA Ph1b) now modelled on ARGX","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.celiac","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.cd122_il2rb","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":79},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":75},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":71},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.celiac","purity":50},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":25}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":70},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.celiac","purity":68},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":66},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":62},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":34}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":125},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":70},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.celiac","purity":60},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":30},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":15}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":182,"totalTAM":29.458,"totalWTD":10.43128},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":0},"FDMT":{"name":"4D Molecular Therapeutics","subtitle":"AAV intravitreal: 4D-150 nvAMD 4FRONT-1 + 4FRONT-2 Ph3 BOTH enrolled (4FRONT-2 Jun'26, ~4mo early); PRISM Ph2b 2-yr Q3'26; SPECTRA DME 2-yr H2'26; 4D-710 CF + 4D-310 Fabry; cash $458M to 2H'28","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":72.18,"netCashLocal":411,"cashPS":5.6941,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.7,"bear":4.21,"base":7.02,"bull":9.73,"psychedelic_bull":13},"weightedTP":6.59,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dme","respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","respiratory","respiratory.genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.intravitreal_vegf","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.inhaled_cftr","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.gla_systemic"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":86},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":49},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":49},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":48},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":43},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":17},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":82},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":76},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":69},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":41},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":21},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":108},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":87},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":66},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":23},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":3},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":8,"rarePurityWtd":3,"optionality":163,"totalTAM":38.7975,"totalWTD":14.7377076},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-18","asset":"4d150","indication":"4d150_nvamd","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-18 (ASRS, HIT): 4D-150 PRISM Ph2b 2-YEAR data POSITIVE -- visual acuity and anatomic control maintained after a single intravitreal dose, 78% overall treatment-burden reduction (2.7 vs 12.0 projected aflibercept injections) and 87% in the recently-diagnosed subgroup that matches the 4FRONT population; no new safety or intraocular-inflammation findings","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/FDMT/8-k-4d-molecular-therapeutics-inc-reports-material-event-89e621c495f0.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.89663759,"successTP":7.55430605,"baseTP":6.59371515,"swingPct":41,"successMove":15,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"Sep 28 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-28","asset":"4d150","indication":"4d150_dme","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-28 (HIT): 4D-150 SPECTRA Ph2 DME 2-year data positive + 4SIGHT Ph3 DME (n~514 vs aflibercept, wk-52 BCVA non-inferiority) first patients enrolled","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/FDMT/8-k-4d-molecular-therapeutics-inc-reports-material-event-89e621c495f0.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.16103424,"successTP":8.01089114,"baseTP":6.59371515,"swingPct":58,"successMove":21,"failMove":-37,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"4d150","indication":"4d150_nvamd","title":"4D-150 4FRONT-1 Ph3 wet AMD 52-week topline (North America, treatment-naive) -- enrollment completed in 11 months; company guides topline to Q2/H1 2027, ahead of 4FRONT-2 in H2 2027","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"_source":"https://4dmt.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/4dmt-completes-enrollment-4front-1-phase-3-clinical-trial-4d-150/","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.60121303,"successTP":5.54048338,"baseTP":6.59371515,"swingPct":14,"successMove":-16,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":-19,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"4d150","indication":"4d150_nvamd","title":"4D-150 4FRONT-2 global Ph3 wet AMD 52-wk topline -- enrollment COMPLETE Jun 29 2026 (>500 pts, ~4mo ahead; final randomization Q3'26). Both pivotals (4FRONT-1 + 4FRONT-2) now fully enrolled","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":86,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/29/3318897/0/en/4DMT-Completes-Enrollment-for-4FRONT-2-Global-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-of-4D-150-in-Wet-AMD.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.89663759,"successTP":7.66497245,"baseTP":6.59371515,"swingPct":42,"successMove":16,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":7.92},"readouts":[{"a":"4d150","ind":"4d150_nvamd","ds":"2026-07-18","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":7.66278227,"lo":-0.591115041,"hi":13.0811424,"pBeatBest":0.09645,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3},{"a":"4d150","ind":"4d150_nvamd","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":6.86687663,"lo":-3.62936923,"hi":12.3131824,"pBeatBest":0.05965,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3},{"a":"4d150","ind":"4d150_nvamd","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":6.8733081,"lo":-3.66585118,"hi":12.3177511,"pBeatBest":0.0578,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3}]},"FERRING":{"name":"Ferring Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Swiss family-owned reproductive medicine + uro-oncology + GI specialty (Paulsen family); Adstiladrin (nadofaragene firadenovec) BCG-unresponsive NMIBC gene therapy first-in-class FDA Dec 2022 +...","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","women_health.menopause.hrt","women_health","women_health.menopause","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.adenovirus.ifn_alpha_intravesical","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.adenovirus","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.gonadotropin","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone","live_biotherapeutic.microbiome.fmt_oral","live_biotherapeutic","live_biotherapeutic.microbiome","small_molecule.pleiotropic.5_asa","small_molecule","small_molecule.pleiotropic","peptide.hormone_analog.gnrh.antagonist","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.gnrh","peptide.hormone_analog.diversified_reproductive","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","live_biotherapeutic.microbiome.fmt_platform"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":85},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":33},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":22},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":16},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":11},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":8},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":87},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":33},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":22},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":12},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":11},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":6},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":100},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":39.03425,"totalWTD":38.18285},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":2480},"FLNA":{"name":"Filana Therapeutics (formerly Cassava Sciences SAVA)","subtitle":"Rebranded from SAVA Mar'26 post Alzheimer's Ph3 FAIL; simufilam pivot to TSC epilepsy -- PoC trial on FDA CLINICAL HOLD, no start date | YE26 unrestricted cash guide $36-40M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":48.3,"netCashLocal":51.5,"cashPS":1.0663,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.46,"bear":0.52,"base":0.6,"bull":0.78,"psychedelic_bull":1.15},"weightedTP":0.57,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.tsc","cns","cns.epilepsy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.pleiotropic.filamin_a","small_molecule","small_molecule.pleiotropic"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":200},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":200},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":200},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1381,"totalTAM":2.7325,"totalWTD":0.18444375},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"simufilam","indication":"simu_tsc","title":"Simufilam Ph2a PoC initiation in TSC-related epilepsy -- FDA clinical hold LIFTED Sep 22 2026; screening guided by Q1 2027","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":45,"_note":"SLIPPED. Study not initiated by H1 2026. Filana disclosed an FDA clinical hold (Dec 2025) on the simufilam TSC-epilepsy IND; Q1 2026 update (May 2026) says the company is working to resolve the hold via additional preclinical data + protocol modifications. Study start gated on hold resolution; date rolled to H2 2026, unresolved.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/07/3289926/8339/en/Filana-Therapeutics-Reports-Q1-2026-Financial-Results-and-Business-Update.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.52817448,"successTP":0.662391497,"baseTP":0.568843504,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":7,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.57}},"FULC":{"name":"Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"REVERSE MERGER Aug 16 2026: all-stock combination with Slate Medicines (anti-PACAP/VIP migraine mAb SLTE-1009); $245M PIPE led by Frazier funds into 2029; closes Q4 2026 as Slate Medicines (SLTE)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":66.6,"netCashLocal":333.3,"cashPS":5.0045,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.94,"bear":3.6,"base":4.13,"bull":4.45,"psychedelic_bull":5},"weightedTP":3.9,"meta":{"areas":["cns.pain.migraine","cns","cns.pain"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pacap","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":200},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":200},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":200},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":100}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":809,"totalTAM":6.22,"totalWTD":0.6842},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 16 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-16","asset":"fulc_shell","indication":"fulc_platform","title":"REPORTED: Strategic review RESOLVED Aug 16 2026 -- definitive all-stock reverse merger with Slate Medicines (anti-PACAP/VIP migraine mAb SLTE-1009) plus a $245M oversubscribed private placement led by Frazier Life Sciences; combined company trades as SLTE, cash runway into 2029, close expected Q4 2026","type":"milestone","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"The pre-declared success case for this shell was 'reverse merger with a mid-stage clinical asset at NAV par'. Delivered: signed definitive agreement, a named clinical-stage asset, and a $245M fully committed PIPE from a specialist syndicate -- better than the base case, so pos/apr moved to the pre-declared success_pos/success_apr (80/85) with monotonic scaling. Residual risk is deal close (shareholder vote, Q4 2026), not strategic-review uncertainty.","_source":"Fulcrum/Slate joint PR 2026-08-17 (globenewswire 3345962); Fulcrum 8-K + Form 425 SEC 0001193125-26-353278 / -353282","failTP":3.79380457,"successTP":4.61952408,"baseTP":3.90029828,"swingPct":6,"successMove":5,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":11,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"fulc_shell","indication":"fulc_platform","title":"SUPERSEDED by the Aug 16 2026 Slate merger: cash distribution / special dividend (only if the merger fails to close)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.70099815,"successTP":3.73760718,"baseTP":3.90029828,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":11,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.91}},"GALD":{"name":"Galderma Group AG","subtitle":"Pure-play derm | H1'26 record $3.134B (+24.6% CER); FY26 guide RAISED to 19-21% CER | Nemluvio H1'26 $433M (>2x), >$1B US expected 2026 | Relfydess FDA CRL | Restylane + Cetaphil + Aklief","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":240,"netCashLocal":-1595,"cashPS":-6.6458,"tps":{"mega_bear":62.1,"bear":89.78,"base":140.68,"bull":214.78,"psychedelic_bull":346.93},"weightedTP":151.7,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.aesthetics.filler","dermatology.aesthetics","dermatology.aesthetics.skincare"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il31ra","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","aesthetic_or_other.filler.ha_botulinum","aesthetic_or_other","aesthetic_or_other.filler","_diversified.branded.derm","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.retinoid_derm","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":92},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":73},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.skincare","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":27}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":92},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":73},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.skincare","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":27}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":16.2075,"totalWTD":16.2075},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 22 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-07-22","asset":"nemluvio","indication":"pn_ad","title":"REPORTED: Galderma H1 2026 results Jul 22 2026 -- record net sales $3.134B, +24.6% YoY CER (first H1 above $3B); FY26 net-sales guidance RAISED; Nemluvio H1 $433M; Therapeutic Derm +67.9%, Dermatological Skincare +16.4%, Injectable Aesthetics +12.1%, all CER","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Galderma PR 2026-07-22 (galderma.com/news/galderma-H12026-performance; businesswire 20260722555754)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Reported ahead of the modelled date and beat: growth was broad-based across all three categories and management raised FY26 guidance. No assumption change -- every Galderma asset already sits at pos/apr 100 with sensitivity in pen, and a guidance raise is a pen/peak recalibration (judgment), not a news-driven pos move. Flagged rather than auto-applied.","failTP":151.702381,"successTP":151.702381,"baseTP":151.702381,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-22","asset":"injectable_aesthetics","indication":"aesthetics","title":"REPORTED: FDA issued a COMPLETE RESPONSE LETTER for RELFYDESS (ready-to-use liquid neuromodulator), disclosed around the H1 2026 report -- US launch timing now uncertain; the neuromodulator growth case leans on Dysport in the interim","type":"regulatory","severity":"high","failTP":151.702381,"successTP":151.702381,"baseTP":151.702381,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":5252,"lenses":{"comparable":107.9,"eeRel":1.0203,"peRel":0.9623}},"GALE":{"name":"Galenica AG","subtitle":"Switzerland's largest pharmacy retail + wholesale network (~390 stores Amavita/Sun Store/Coop Vitality); CHF 4,135M FY25 (+5.5% all-time high); adj EBIT CHF 234.8M (+11%); 2026 guide +5-7% sales /...","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":49.83,"netCashLocal":-665,"cashPS":-13.3454,"tps":{"mega_bear":23.71,"bear":42.23,"base":64.46,"bull":90.4,"psychedelic_bull":123.74},"weightedTP":68.54,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products.gale_diagnostics"],"modalities":["_diversified.distribution.swiss_pharmacy","_diversified","_diversified.distribution","_diversified.distribution.swiss_wholesale","_diversified.consumer.swiss_brands","_diversified.consumer","_diversified.diagnostics.lab_services","_diversified.diagnostics"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-09","asset":"gale_pharmacies","indication":"gale_pharm","title":"Galenica FY2026 full-year results (H1'26 reported +7.1% sales/EBIT)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Galenica IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":68.5372767,"successTP":68.5372767,"baseTP":68.5372767,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4397,"lenses":{"comparable":250.93,"peRel":0.8295}},"GENB":{"name":"Genenta Science","subtitle":"Temferon HSC ex-vivo gene therapy expressing IFNα in solid tumors: Ph1/2a GBM 38 enrolled (25 dosed); 2 long-term survivors >3yr; FDA + EU Orphan Drug; RCC trial; Italian micro-cap ADR","currency":"USD","country":"IT","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":23.59,"netCashLocal":33,"cashPS":1.3989,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.38,"bear":0.57,"base":0.98,"bull":2.36,"psychedelic_bull":7.15},"weightedTP":1.06,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.brain.gbm","oncology","oncology.brain","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.lentivirus.hsc_ifna2","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.lentivirus"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":33}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":106},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":47}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":176},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":12}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1476,"totalTAM":3.3487,"totalWTD":0.21247296},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-27","asset":"temferon","indication":"temf_gbm","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-27 (study closed early, no safety issue): TEM-GBM Ph1/2a (NCT03866109) status TERMINATED on clinicaltrials.gov, last update posted Jun 11 2026. Registry reason verbatim: last-visit for pt GBM-01034 took place 27may2026; the 2 remaining slots allocated for the additional safety cohort ahead of Part B will not be filled; NO SAFETY CONCERNS, benefit-risk profile unchanged. Primary completion and completion date both 2026-05-27","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://ir.genenta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/genenta-announces-ongoing-clinical-trial-progress-and-proposed","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.489678583,"successTP":2.45519965,"baseTP":1.05683555,"swingPct":186,"successMove":132,"failMove":-54,"yourPoS":24,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":54},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"temferon","indication":"temf_gbm","title":"Temferon TEM-GBM Part B / Ph2 design + regulatory path update following the early closure of Part A (25 pts dosed as of the Nov 2025 cut; 2-year survival 29% vs ~14% historical uMGMT SoC; no DLTs across dose escalation; Ph1 published in Nature Medicine 2026)","type":"milestone","failTP":0.406675122,"successTP":0.670489066,"baseTP":1.05683555,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-11,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":-18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.87}},"GERN":{"name":"Geron Corporation","subtitle":"RYTELO (imetelstat) telomerase inhibitor, LR-MDS transfusion-dependent anemia (FDA Jun'24) | Q2'26 $57.5M (+11% QoQ); FY26 guide REITERATED $220-240M | cash $327M | IMpactMF Ph3 MF OS interim H2'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":642.47,"netCashLocal":77.3,"cashPS":0.1203,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.66,"bear":0.95,"base":1.52,"bull":2.39,"psychedelic_bull":3.56},"weightedTP":1.71,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.myeloid.mds","oncology","oncology.myeloid"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.telomerase_inhibitor","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":22,"totalTAM":17.85,"totalWTD":14.6146875},"catalysts":[{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"rytelo","indication":"rytelo_mf","title":"IMpactMF Ph3 OS interim -- ROLLED: guided by year-end 2026 (event-driven; final H2 2028)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"GERN pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.71075482,"successTP":1.71075482,"baseTP":1.71075482,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"rytelo","indication":"rytelo_lrmds","title":"RYTELO FY26 $220-240M guide","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"GERN FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.71075482,"successTP":1.71075482,"baseTP":1.71075482,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":184,"lenses":{"comparable":3.76}},"GHRS":{"name":"GH Research PLC","subtitle":"GH001 INHALABLE mebufotenin (5-MeO-DMT) TRD: Ph2b complete Mar'26; Ph3 plans 2027; direct competitor ATAI BPL-003 intranasal; $117.5M offering Apr'26; cash ~$390M; MCap $1.52B","currency":"USD","country":"IE","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":65.74,"netCashLocal":390,"cashPS":5.9325,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.54,"bear":10.33,"base":17.39,"bull":28.24,"psychedelic_bull":36.52},"weightedTP":17.12,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.psychedelic_5meo_dmt_inhaled","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":114,"totalTAM":15.22,"totalWTD":7.12296},"catalysts":[{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"gh001","indication":"gh001_trd","title":"GH001 Ph3 initiation in TRD (post-Ph2b Mar'26 completion)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GHRS/gh-research-announces-pricing-of-117-5-million-underwritten-svg3wcy91qsw.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.7357917,"successTP":24.9547353,"baseTP":17.1238732,"swingPct":25,"successMove":14,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":17.37}},"GILD":{"name":"Gilead Sciences","subtitle":"HIV $20.8B · Lenacapavir franchise · Trodelvy 1L TNBC · No LOE until 2036","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1240,"netCashLocal":-23067,"cashPS":-18.6024,"tps":{"mega_bear":51.91,"bear":76.6,"base":101.19,"bull":148.34,"psychedelic_bull":206.68},"weightedTP":112.1,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.hiv","infectious_disease.viral.hiv.prep","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.tnbc","oncology.breast.tnbc.1l_pdl1_pos","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.her2_low","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","infectious_disease.viral.hcv","infectious_disease.viral.hbv","infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","oncology.lymphoma.mcl","gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","gastro_hepatology.liver.psc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.hiv_integrase_str","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.antiviral.hiv_nrti","small_molecule.antiviral","small_molecule.kinase.hiv_integrase_str_legacy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_cd19","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.trop2_sn38","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload","small_molecule.antiviral.hcv_ns5b_ns5a","small_molecule.antiviral.hiv_str","small_molecule.antiviral.hbv_nrti","small_molecule.antiviral.rdrp_nucleoside","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ppar_delta","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.antiviral.hiv_capsid","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_bcma_targeted"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":77},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":63},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":55},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":9},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.prep","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.her2_low","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mcl","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.1l_pdl1_pos","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":82},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":67},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":60},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":17},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.prep","purity":8},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mcl","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.her2_low","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.1l_pdl1_pos","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":93},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":93},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":45},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.prep","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.1l_pdl1_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.her2_low","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hcv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mcl","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":20,"rarePurityWtd":16,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":192.3907,"totalWTD":178.933198},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-12-08","dateSort":"2025-12-08","asset":"anito_cel","indication":"anito_mm_4l_plus","title":"REPORTED 2025-12-08 (ASH 2025): iMMagine-1 update (data cutoff Oct 7 2025; N=117; mFU 15.9mo) -- IRC-assessed ORR 96% / 74% CR-sCR / 88% >=VGPR / 95% MRD-neg","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"Gilead/Kite ASH 2025 PR Dec 8 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-08 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":110.037308,"successTP":110.899392,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Apr 28, 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-28","asset":"anito_cel","indication":"anito_mm_4l_plus","title":"RESOLVED 2026-04-28: Arcellx acquisition CLOSED -- Gilead acquired Arcellx for $7.8B ($115/share + $5 CVR contingent on sales milestones)","type":"ma_close","binary":false,"_source":"https://investors.gilead.com/news/news-details/2026/Gilead-Sciences-Completes-Acquisition-of-Arcellx-Ahead-of-Potential-Commercial-Launch-of-Anito-cel/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Gilead completed the acquisition of Arcellx on April 28, 2026 at $115/share cash plus one $5 CVR (payable Mar 31 2030 if cumulative anito-cel sales exceed $6.0B by Dec 31 2029), ~$7.8B implied equity value. Deal-close milestone; no valuation change.","failTP":110.037308,"successTP":110.899392,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":83,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Aug 24 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"trodelvy","indication":"trod_tnbc_1l","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-24: EC APPROVED Trodelvy + Keytruda in PD-L1 CPS>=10 1L mTNBC (ASCENT-04), after earlier EC mono approval for PD-(L)1-ineligible 1L mTNBC -- Trodelvy now 1L backbone across PD-L1 status in EU","type":"ema_approval","binary":false,"fail_pos":88,"fail_apr":92,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_note":"CHMP adopted a positive opinion 2026-07-24 recommending Trodelvy in combination with Keytruda for first-line PD-(L)1-positive metastatic TNBC, on the ASCENT-04 basis. EC decision customarily follows a CHMP opinion by roughly two months. Incremental to the US 1L mTNBC approval already resolved in this config on 2026-06-24 -- treated as supportive geographic expansion (narrative + catalyst only, no base pos/apr move) rather than a second bite at the same event. Source: Gilead PR 2026-07-24 (businesswire).","_source":"https://investors.gilead.com/news/news-details/2026/European-Commission-Expands-Role-of-Gileads-Trodelvy-in-First-Line-Metastatic-Triple-Negative-Breast-Cancer-Across-PD-L1-Status/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","failTP":112.099343,"successTP":112.099343,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 27 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"lenacapavir_prep","indication":"lena_prep","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-27: FDA APPROVED Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75mg / lenacapavir 50mg) -- smallest once-daily STR, first and only STR for virologically suppressed adults on complex regimens (Ph3 ARTISTRY-1/-2, non-inferior virologic suppression at Wk48). BIC/LEN launch that the base case already carried; no assumption change.","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Gilead IR PR 2026-08-27","_confidence":"high","failTP":111.475695,"successTP":113.380039,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"lenacapavir_prep","indication":"lena_prep","title":"Lenacapavir PrEP launch ramp + ex-US approvals","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"GILD pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":111.475695,"successTP":113.380039,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Dec 23 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-23","asset":"anito_cel","indication":"anito_mm_4l_plus","title":"Anito-cel PDUFA -- BLA for 4L+ R/R multiple myeloma (iMMagine-1 Ph2 N=117 / 96% ORR / 74% CR/sCR / 95% MRD-neg; Arcellx-originated BCMA D-Domain CAR-T)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"GILD/Arcellx + FDA BLA acceptance + PharmExec/OncoDaily","_confidence":"high","failTP":111.198176,"successTP":112.7374,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"trodelvy","indication":"trod_tnbc_1l","title":"RESOLVED Jun 24 2026: FDA approved Trodelvy 1L mTNBC (mono for PD-(L)1-ineligible + combo w/ Keytruda for PD-L1 CPS>=10) on ASCENT-03 + ASCENT-04; NCCN cat 1 preferred","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"FDA approval Jun 24 2026 (fda.gov / Gilead PR)","_confidence":"high","failTP":112.099343,"successTP":112.099343,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Feb 2 2027 (PDUFA)","dateSort":"2027-02-02","asset":"lenacapavir_prep","indication":"lena_prep","title":"Yeztugo (lenacapavir) once-weekly ORAL PrEP tablets sNDA PDUFA -- FDA accepted (Q2 2026); oral lead-in/bridge formulation extending the twice-yearly injectable franchise","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/882095/000088209526000028/exhibit991earningspressrel.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":109.148786,"successTP":110.374861,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"anito_cel","indication":"anito_mm_2l","title":"iMMagine-3 Phase 3 readout in 2L+ R/R MM vs SoC (label expansion to larger 2L+ TAM)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Arcellx iMMagine-3 ClinicalTrials.gov","_confidence":"high","failTP":110.502138,"successTP":113.199283,"baseTP":112.099343,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":28391,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":38,"ceilPct":35,"position":"fast_follower","asset":"anito_cel","ind":"anito_mm_4l_plus","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","somB":1.5,"tamB":4}},"lenses":{"comparable":79.25,"eeRel":1.0036},"readouts":[{"a":"anito_cel","ind":"anito_mm_4l_plus","ds":"2025-12-08","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":55.3516893,"lo":7.62372878,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.2367,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73}]},"GLAND":{"name":"Gland Pharma","subtitle":"Indian sterile injectables + CDMO (Fosun 74%): 60-country; oncology+ophthalmic+complex injectables+505(b)(2); Q1 FY25 INR 1,408 cr +16%; US 54%/+27%","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":164.77,"netCashLocal":2000,"cashPS":12.1381,"tps":{"mega_bear":952.99,"bear":1289.58,"base":1632.68,"bull":2059.14,"psychedelic_bull":2574.53},"weightedTP":1678.86,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.sterile_diversified","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":15.3,"totalWTD":15.3},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"gland_injectables","indication":"gland_diversified","title":"Gland Pharma FY 2026 (Mar 2026) revenue execution + complex injectables ramp","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://glandpharma.com/about","_confidence":"high","failTP":1350.90591,"successTP":2007.13958,"baseTP":1678.85562,"swingPct":12,"successMove":6,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1721.24,"peRel":0.9514}},"GLAXO":{"name":"GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Limited","subtitle":"Indian MNC subsidiary | FY25 INR 3,723 cr revenue | Augmentin + Calpol + Ceftum + Synflorix vaccines | anti-infective leader; defensive top-10 Indian MNC franchise + dividend","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":169.4,"netCashLocal":12000,"cashPS":70.8383,"tps":{"mega_bear":1133.41,"bear":1824.09,"base":2718.42,"bull":4144.04,"psychedelic_bull":6564.34},"weightedTP":2937.72,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.india_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.india_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-10","asset":"glaxo_in_branded","indication":"glaxo_in_div","title":"GSK Pharma India Q2 FY27 results (Sep 2026 quarter)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"GSK India IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":2937.72137,"successTP":2937.72137,"baseTP":2937.72137,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":445,"lenses":{"comparable":907.27,"peRel":1.0274}},"GLENMARK":{"name":"Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd.","subtitle":"Indian formulations specialist (post-API divestment) | FY25 INR 121B / ~$1.45B | Ryaltris (olopatadine + mometasone allergic rhinitis) US launch + India branded | IGI antibody platform IPO 2024","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":282.3,"netCashLocal":-5040,"cashPS":-17.8533,"tps":{"mega_bear":747.22,"bear":1267.96,"base":1965.85,"bull":3489.09,"psychedelic_bull":5508.26},"weightedTP":2248.38,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","respiratory","respiratory.upper_airway","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_india_other","_established_products","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","cns.epilepsy.generalized","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_eu_ex_ryaltris_other","_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_row_other","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_na_other"],"modalities":["small_molecule.combination.intranasal_steroid_antihistamine","small_molecule","small_molecule.combination","biologic.antibody.trispecific.tce","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.trispecific","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":76},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":38},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":20},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_eu_ex_ryaltris_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_row_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_na_other","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":76},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":38},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":20},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_eu_ex_ryaltris_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_row_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_na_other","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.allergic_rhinitis","purity":191},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_eu_ex_ryaltris_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_row_other","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.glenmark_glenmark_na_other","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":829.7046,"totalWTD":827.502901},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"isb_2001","indication":"rrmm_isb","title":"ISB 2001 Ph2 expansion data + AbbVie Ph2 start (CD38xBCMAxCD3 trispecific)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":90,"_source":"ASCO 2025 + AbbVie deal Jul 2025","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2248.30473,"successTP":2248.45641,"baseTP":2248.38147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"isb_2001","indication":"rrmm_isb","title":"ISB-2001 Ph2 expansion data (AbbVie-led; durability + 2L/3L MM cohort signals)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2248.27865,"successTP":2248.45675,"baseTP":2248.38147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"ryaltris","indication":"allergic_rhinitis","title":"Ryaltris ex-US royalty + 45+ market expansion ramp","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Glenmark FY25 IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":2248.38147,"successTP":2248.38147,"baseTP":2248.38147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"ryaltris","indication":"allergic_rhinitis","title":"Ryaltris EU additional 5-market launches + US re-launch ramp update","type":"launch","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2248.38147,"successTP":2248.38147,"baseTP":2248.38147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-30","asset":"glenmark_india","indication":"glenmark_india_outpatient_generic","title":"Glenmark FY27 annual results + Q4 FY27 print (IGI + ISB-2001 Ph2 expansion data)","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2248.38147,"successTP":2248.38147,"baseTP":2248.38147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-30","asset":"glenmark_india","indication":"glenmark_india_outpatient_generic","title":"Glenmark FY27 annual results (Ryaltris EU 5-market expansion + ISB-2001 progress)","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2248.38147,"successTP":2248.38147,"baseTP":2248.38147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"isb_2001","indication":"rrmm_isb","title":"ISB-2001 Ph3 initiation (4L+ MM pivotal) + Glenmark/IGI milestone trigger","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2248.2763,"successTP":2248.34756,"baseTP":2248.38147,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1526,"lenses":{"comparable":1593.27,"eeRel":0.9583,"peRel":0.8183},"readouts":[{"a":"isb_2001","ind":"rrmm_isb","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.2692316,"lo":7.25867061,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.2265,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73},{"a":"isb_2001","ind":"rrmm_isb","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.7762494,"lo":7.09205897,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.2309,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73}]},"GLMD":{"name":"EoCene Ltd (formerly Galmed Pharmaceuticals)","subtitle":"EoCene (ex-Galmed): Aramchol GI onco Ph1b dosing since May'26 · Parkinson Ph1b/2 start unconfirmed (no update in Sep'26 PR) · Colospan CG-100 device (CE marked, FDA Breakthrough, US IDE pivotal)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":1.04,"netCashLocal":11.4,"cashPS":10.9615,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0,"bull":0,"psychedelic_bull":0},"weightedTP":0,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","_diversified.devices","_diversified","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.scd1","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","_diversified.devices.intraluminal_bypass","_diversified","_diversified.devices"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":97},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":36},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":19},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":6},{"area":"_diversified.devices","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":69},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":20},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":12},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":4},{"area":"_diversified.devices","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":59},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":56},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":28},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":15},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":4},{"area":"_diversified.devices","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":3,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":18495,"totalTAM":49.1491,"totalWTD":0.26431792},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 15, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"aramchol_onco","indication":"crc","title":"REPORTED: Phase 1b VCU Massey GI oncology trial first patient dosed","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":35,"_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Phase 1b VCU Massey GI oncology trial first patient dosing milestone; outcome auto-resolved with conservative default. Verify via Galmed IR if material.","_outcomeSource":"https://ir.galmedpharma.com/","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":2,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-03","asset":"aramchol_nash_legacy","indication":"mash","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-03: Nasdaq minimum bid price compliance regained after a 1-for-8 reverse split effective Aug 19 2026 (6-K Sep 8 2026)","type":"other","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":8,"success_pos":12,"success_apr":18,"_note":"Corporate event, not asset-specific: attached to the discontinued MASH asset as a placeholder; no assumption change.","_outcome":"success","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001595353/000149315226041656/form6-k.htm","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"aramchol_onco","indication":"crc","title":"Phase 1b initial safety/PK data","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":40,"failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"aramchol_pd","indication":"pd","title":"Parkinson Ph1b/2 PoC trial initiation -- ROLLED from Oct 2026 (not announced; dropped from Sep'26 corporate update, timing unguided)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":32,"failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0},"readouts":[{"a":"aramchol_onco","ind":"crc","ds":"2026-11-15","area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":1.85736229,"lo":0,"hi":18.3847346,"pBeatBest":0.2883,"bestDrug":"trifluridine/tipiracil + bev","bestValue":6.3}]},"GLSI":{"name":"Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc.","subtitle":"GLSI-100 (GP2) HER2 peptide vaccine + GM-CSF: FLAMINGO-01 Ph3 HER2+ breast adjuvant -- 500-pt HLA-A*02 randomized + 250-pt open-label enrolling | Cash $10M TIGHT","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":14.68,"netCashLocal":8.88,"cashPS":0.6049,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":1.09,"bull":4.59,"psychedelic_bull":8.44},"weightedTP":1.38,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos"],"modalities":["vaccine.therapeutic.peptide.her2_gp2","vaccine","vaccine.therapeutic","vaccine.therapeutic.peptide"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":223,"totalTAM":5.055,"totalWTD":1.56705},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"glsi100","indication":"glsi_adj","title":"FLAMINGO-01 open-label arm extended follow-up (recurrence rate update)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":45,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":4.1648227,"baseTP":1.3828907,"swingPct":301,"successMove":201,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":51,"daysOut":null,"materiality":100},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"glsi100","indication":"glsi_adj","title":"Capital raise (12mo runway gap)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":1.3828907,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-30,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-30,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"glsi100","indication":"glsi_adj","title":"Potential first pre-specified interim analysis (HLA-A*02 randomized arm)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":4.61113766,"baseTP":1.3828907,"swingPct":333,"successMove":233,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":67,"daysOut":null,"materiality":100}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.02}},"GLUE":{"name":"Monte Rosa Therapeutics","subtitle":"Molecular glue leader: MRT-2359 GSPT1 mCRPC Ph2 Q3'26; MRT-6160 VAV1 (Novartis 50/50); MRT-8102 NEK7 -- GFORCE-1 Ph1 IL-6 -55% / hsCRP -85% reads out H2'26 into a post-ZEUS market; cash $671M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":84.32,"netCashLocal":626,"cashPS":7.4241,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.08,"bear":6.64,"base":8.05,"bull":10.4,"psychedelic_bull":13.32},"weightedTP":8.38,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","cardio_metabolic.ischemic.cv_inflammation","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.ischemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_degrader.molecular_glue","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_degrader"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":65},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.cv_inflammation","purity":56},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":45},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":28},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":12},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":90},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":48},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":45},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.cv_inflammation","purity":14},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":7},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":50},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.cv_inflammation","purity":39},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":29},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":20},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":14},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":456,"totalTAM":37.9418,"totalWTD":6.8229583},"catalysts":[{"date":"24 Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"mrt2359","indication":"mrt2359_mcrpc","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-24: MRT-2359 MODeFIRe-1 Phase 2 mCRPC + apalutamide initiated — first patient dosed (up to 25 AR-mut pts, Simon 2-stage, 0.5mg 21/7)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://ir.monterosatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/monte-rosa-therapeutics-announces-first-patient-dosed-modefire-1","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.00796588,"successTP":9.29205066,"baseTP":8.37521604,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":41,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"mrt8102","indication":"mrt8102_cv","title":"MRT-8102 GFORCE-1 full Phase 1 readout in elevated-CVD-risk subjects (NCT07119125, active/not recruiting, primary completion Jul 2026; company guided readout during 2026). Interim already showed median IL-6 -55% below the CV risk threshold and hsCRP -85% at 4 weeks (n=24, cutoff Dec 23 2025). Post-ZEUS a strong biomarker result proves target engagement, NOT clinical benefit -- success values set accordingly","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":6,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":22,"success_apr":38,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07119125 + Monte Rosa Q1 2026 business update","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.7943684,"successTP":8.73805355,"baseTP":8.37521604,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"mrt6160","indication":"mrt6160_autoimmune","title":"MRT-6160 VAV1 Novartis Ph2 immune-mediated diseases initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":58,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GLUE/monte-rosa-therapeutics-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-to2nk3h6bjwz.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.22434553,"successTP":8.47130285,"baseTP":8.37521604,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"mrt8102","indication":"mrt8102_cv","title":"MRT-8102 atherosclerotic CV risk Ph2 initiation (NEK7-NLRP3 MGD) -- one of three Ph2 starts guided from H2 2026 in NLRP3/IL-1/IL-6-driven disease","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":20,"success_apr":35,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GLUE/monte-rosa-therapeutics-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-to2nk3h6bjwz.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.87427388,"successTP":8.6713351,"baseTP":8.37521604,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"mrt2359","indication":"mrt2359_mcrpc","title":"Cyclin E1-directed MGD IND submission target","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://ir.monterosatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/monte-rosa-therapeutics-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.93018379,"successTP":9.1153106,"baseTP":8.37521604,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.37}},"GMAB":{"name":"Genmab A/S","subtitle":"Antibody platform: Darzalex/Kesimpta/JNJ trio royalties + Epkinly + Tivdak commercial + Petosemtamab (Merus acq Dec 2025) + Rina-S Ph3","currency":"USD","country":"DK","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":616,"netCashLocal":-3687,"cashPS":-5.9854,"tps":{"mega_bear":10,"bear":18.13,"base":29.12,"bull":42.71,"psychedelic_bull":57.18},"weightedTP":27.57,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","ophthalmology.orbit.ted","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.orbit","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.lymphoma.fl","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology.gynecologic.cervical","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd38","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd20","biologic.antibody.bispecific.egfr_met","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bcma_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific.gprc5d_cd3","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_igf1r","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cd20_cd3","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.tissue_factor","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","biologic.antibody.bispecific.egfr_lgr5","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.folr1","biologic.adc.topo1_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":21},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":18},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":9},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":20},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":40},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":56,"rarePurityWtd":57,"optionality":10,"totalTAM":125.77325,"totalWTD":114.371269},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 23 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-07-23","asset":"epkinly","indication":"dlbcl_rr","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-23 (MISS): EPCORE DLBCL-1 confirmatory Ph3 -- overall survival, the SOLE US primary endpoint, was NOT MET; US accelerated approval in R/R DLBCL now unconfirmed","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_note":"Genmab/AbbVie joint clarification 2026-07-23. EPCORE DLBCL-1 compared subcutaneous epcoritamab monotherapy vs investigator's choice chemoimmunotherapy (R-GemOx or BR) in transplant-ineligible R/R DLBCL, with prespecified primary endpoints that DIFFER BY REGION. The clarification states plainly that OS was the sole US primary endpoint and was not met. Topline had been announced 2026-01-16 and further data shown at EHA 2026-06-12; the July PR exists because the regional-endpoint structure had left the US outcome ambiguous. RISK: this is the confirmatory trial underpinning the US accelerated approval in R/R DLBCL -- the same setup that is costing BMS the Krazati CRC indication. Handled as a SURPRISE (no pre-declared catalyst existed): pos/apr left at 100 (the drug IS approved and marketed today) and the hit taken on pen for dlbcl_rr only -- mega_bear 0.65->0.50, bear 0.87->0.72, base 1.13->0.96, bull 1.33->1.16, psychedelic_bull 1.45->1.30 (roughly -12 to -23% relative). A full expression of withdrawal risk would need a scenario-weight change, which is not auto-editable -- flagged for manual review. Sources: Genmab IR PR 2026-07-23; AbbVie newsroom 2026-07-23.","_source":"https://ir.genmab.com/news-releases/news-release-details/genmab-and-abbvie-provide-clarification-phase-3-epcorer-dlbcl-1","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_resolvedDate":"2026-07-31","_outcomeSource":"freshness review 2026-07-31 (title already marked resolved; _outcome backfilled)","failTP":27.5672805,"successTP":27.5672805,"baseTP":27.5672805,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 5 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-05","asset":"epkinly","indication":"dlbcl_1l","title":"REPORTED 2026-10-05 (HIT): Epkinly EPCORE DLBCL-2 Ph3 1L DLBCL (epcoritamab + R-CHOP) -- primary PFS MET (IPI 3-5: HR 0.49 [0.35-0.69], p<0.0001); OS not reported; regulatory next steps under discussion","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/05/3374942/0/en/genmab-and-abbvie-announce-epcoritamab-in-combination-with-r-chop-demonstrates-statistically-significant-improvement-in-progression-free-survival-in-patients-with-newly-diagnosed-d.html","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","failTP":27.5672805,"successTP":27.5672805,"baseTP":27.5672805,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Late 2026 (unconfirmed)","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"rina_s","indication":"ovarian_proc","title":"Rina-S RAINFOL-02 Phase 3 platinum-resistant ovarian cancer readout -- rolled from Sep 30: primary completion Aug 18 2026 (actual, NCT06619236, n=584); not yet reported; no company date","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.oncologypipeline.com/apexonco/genmab-pushes-rina-s-its-third-phase-3","_confidence":"low","failTP":26.8671269,"successTP":28.1309503,"baseTP":27.5672805,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"petosemtamab","indication":"hnscc_2l_plus","title":"Petosemtamab LiGeR-HN-2 Phase 3 interim (2/3L+ HNSCC monotherapy)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.statnews.com/2025/09/29/genmab-merus-head-and-neck-cancer-acquisition-petosemtamab/","_confidence":"high","failTP":26.3616754,"successTP":28.7951908,"baseTP":27.5672805,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"petosemtamab","indication":"hnscc_1l","title":"Petosemtamab LiGeR-HN-1 Phase 3 1L HNSCC + Keytruda interim","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://ir.genmab.com/news-releases/news-release-details/genmab-acquire-merus-expanding-late-stage-pipeline-and/","_confidence":"high","failTP":25.1224317,"successTP":29.7713053,"baseTP":27.5672805,"swingPct":17,"successMove":8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rina_s","indication":"endometrial_rs","title":"Rina-S RAINFOL-03 Ph3 endometrial readout (BTD)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://ir.genmab.com/news-releases/news-release-details/genmab-receives-fda-breakthrough-therapy-designation-rinatabart/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":23.7033076,"successTP":31.3384418,"baseTP":27.5672805,"swingPct":28,"successMove":14,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":2983,"lenses":{"comparable":18.49,"eeRel":0.8187,"peRel":0.8529},"readouts":[{"a":"rina_s","ind":"ovarian_proc","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.2287559,"lo":0,"hi":42.8790569,"pBeatBest":0.23175,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3},{"a":"epkinly","ind":"dlbcl_rr","ds":"2026-07-23","area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.0620985,"lo":20.9353764,"hi":81.8049314,"pBeatBest":0.2632,"bestDrug":"epcoritamab","bestValue":63}]},"GMDA":{"name":"Gamida Cell Ltd. (acquired by Highbridge Capital Mar 2024)","subtitle":"Israeli cell therapy -- OMISIRGE (omidubicel-onlv) FDA approved Apr 2023 for hematologic malignancies allo-HCT; minimal launch; restructured Mar 2024 -> Highbridge private","currency":"USD","country":"IL","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","hematology","hematology.marrow_failure","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.hsc_cord_blood_nam","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.nk_nam_expanded"],"focus":[{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":30},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":28}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":75},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":55},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure.aplastic_anemia","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":53},{"area":"hematology.marrow_failure","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":5}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":32,"totalTAM":4.01745,"totalWTD":3.032671},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":5},"GNFT":{"name":"GENFIT SA","subtitle":"French PBC royalty | FY25 EUR 65.4M (EUR 43.6M milestones + EUR 21.8M royalty) | Iqirvo elafibranor FY25 US$208M (Q4 US$88M); US$20M milestone Feb'26 1yr early; Ipsen worldwide","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":49.5,"netCashLocal":101,"cashPS":2.0404,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.72,"bear":5.97,"base":10.27,"bull":18.5,"psychedelic_bull":37.96},"weightedTP":12.11,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","gastro_hepatology.liver.psc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ppar_alpha_delta","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ppar_mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":103},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":97}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":103},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":97}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":6.133,"totalWTD":6.133},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"iqirvo_royalty","indication":"iqirvo_pbc","title":"REPORTED: Genfit Q1 2026 results released (Iqirvo royalty + Ipsen China launch detail)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Reported 2026-05-21: Q1 2026 revenue EUR 9.6M from Iqirvo royalties; Iqirvo Q1 net sales EUR 78.8M; FY2025 Iqirvo sales US$208M triggered first US$20M commercial milestone one year ahead of schedule; activated additional EUR 30M HCRx royalty-financing tranche in Jan 2026.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/21/3299583/0/en/genfit-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-information-and-provides-a-corporate-update.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.1129312,"successTP":12.1129312,"baseTP":12.1129312,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"iqirvo_royalty","indication":"iqirvo_pbc","title":"REPORTED: Ipsen H1 2026 (Jul 30 2026) — group sales +23.5% CER to €2,190M, FY26 guidance UPGRADED to >20% CER growth; Iqirvo not itemised in H1 disclosure (Q1 2026 Iqirvo €79M, +266.7% Y/Y). ELSPIRE Ph3b HIT: 85% ALP normalisation at wk52 vs 23% placebo (p<0.0001)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ipsen IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.1129312,"successTP":12.1129312,"baseTP":12.1129312,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-29","asset":"iqirvo_royalty","indication":"iqirvo_pbc","title":"Ipsen Q3 2026 sales — Iqirvo royalty run-rate + next Genfit commercial milestone tracking","type":"milestone","_source":"Ipsen reporting calendar","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.1129312,"successTP":12.1129312,"baseTP":12.1129312,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":25,"lenses":{"comparable":6.46}},"GPCR":{"name":"Structure Therapeutics","subtitle":"Aleniglipron oral GLP-1: Ph3 ACCOMPLISH INITIATED Aug'26 (topline H2'28); OLE 72wk 16.2% wt loss; ACCG-2671 oral amylin Ph1 SAD POSITIVE Sep8'26, MAD H1'27; cash $1.5B","currency":"USD","country":"CN","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":71.07,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":21.106,"tps":{"mega_bear":21.02,"bear":33.69,"base":49.38,"bull":64.54,"psychedelic_bull":77.29},"weightedTP":51.08,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.glp1_oral","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.amylin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":157},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":79},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":43},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":21}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":171},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":85},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":29},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":15}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":181},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":91},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":9}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":120,"totalTAM":366.55,"totalWTD":166.6945},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-31","asset":"aleniglipron","indication":"ale_obesity","title":"REPORTED (success): Phase 3 ACCOMPLISH program INITIATED Aug 2026 post-EoP2 FDA alignment -- ACCOMPLISH-1 (NCT07654361, n<=3,600) + ACCOMPLISH-2 (NCT07654374, n<=1,100 T2DM), 45/90/180mg maintenance doses; topline H2 2028","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":68,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://ir.structuretx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/structure-therapeutics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025","_confidence":"high","failTP":36.5335329,"successTP":55.9619175,"baseTP":51.0808892,"swingPct":11,"successMove":3,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"accg2671","indication":"accg2671_obesity","title":"REPORTED (success): ACCG-2671 oral amylin Ph1 SAD readout Sep 8 2026 -- 3.3% mean body-weight reduction after a single dose, ~6-day half-life (weekly-dosing potential), CTX-1 bone biomarker -60% (target engagement), no SAEs / no liver enzyme elevations; dose-related GI at 5-10mg. MAD cohort now dosing","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://ir.structuretx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/structure-therapeutics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025","_confidence":"high","failTP":48.204511,"successTP":51.7914273,"baseTP":51.0808892,"swingPct":5,"successMove":1,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"aleniglipron","indication":"ale_obesity","title":"ACCG-3535 second oral amylin candidate Phase 1 initiation","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://ir.structuretx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/structure-therapeutics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025","_confidence":"high","failTP":32.9409389,"successTP":55.7765997,"baseTP":51.0808892,"swingPct":9,"successMove":2,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":69,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"accg2671","indication":"accg2671_obesity","title":"ACCG-2671 oral amylin Phase 1 MAD topline (multi-dose weight loss + GI tolerability at repeat dosing)","type":"phase1_data","fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":72,"failTP":48.4310226,"successTP":52.7474615,"baseTP":51.0808892,"swingPct":6,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"aleniglipron","indication":"ale_obesity","title":"Aleniglipron Phase 3 obesity interim or topline (depends on enrollment)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://ir.structuretx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/structure-therapeutics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025","_confidence":"medium","failTP":25.8300319,"successTP":56.0873878,"baseTP":51.0808892,"swingPct":59,"successMove":10,"failMove":-49,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":53}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":46.09},"readouts":[{"a":"accg2671","ind":"accg2671_obesity","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.168273,"lo":3.0999005,"hi":29.5536285,"pBeatBest":0.13475,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"accg2671","ind":"accg2671_obesity","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1855589,"lo":2.71915093,"hi":29.5191216,"pBeatBest":0.13325,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"aleniglipron","ind":"ale_obesity","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":15.5528891,"lo":-0.386646358,"hi":28.5525478,"pBeatBest":0.09965,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"GRF":{"name":"Grifols S.A.","subtitle":"Spanish plasma-derived therapeutics: IVIG/SCIG (€4.5B) + Albumin + Coagulation factors + Specialty proteins (Prolastin, Cinryze, Fesilty)","currency":"EUR","country":"ES","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":687,"netCashLocal":-7798,"cashPS":-11.3508,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.61,"bear":7.14,"base":14.93,"bull":30.16,"psychedelic_bull":56.04},"weightedTP":16.75,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","gastro_hepatology.liver.cirrhosis_decompensated","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology.hemostasis","hematology.hemostasis.vwd","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","hematology.hemostasis.fibrinogen_deficiency","hematology.hemostasis.antithrombin_deficiency"],"modalities":["biologic.plasma_derived.ivig.polyclonal","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.ivig","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation.albumin","biologic.plasma_derived.fractionation","biologic.plasma_derived.coagulation_factor.f8_vwf","biologic.plasma_derived.coagulation_factor","biologic.plasma_derived.coagulation_factor.f9","biologic.plasma_derived.serpin.a1at","biologic.plasma_derived.serpin","biologic.plasma_derived.serpin.c1_inh","small_molecule.kinase.syk","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.plasma_derived.coagulation_factor.fibrinogen","biologic.plasma_derived.serpin.antithrombin"],"focus":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":46},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":34},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":25},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cirrhosis_decompensated","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":16},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":10},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.antithrombin_deficiency","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.fibrinogen_deficiency","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":46},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":34},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":25},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cirrhosis_decompensated","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":16},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":10},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.antithrombin_deficiency","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.fibrinogen_deficiency","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cirrhosis_decompensated","purity":43},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":37},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":37},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.humoral_ivig","purity":36},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":36},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":26},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","purity":11},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":10},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":9},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.antithrombin_deficiency","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.fibrinogen_deficiency","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":62,"rarePurityWtd":62,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":63.46925,"totalWTD":63.46925},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"fesilty","indication":"fibrinogen_deficiency","title":"REPORTED: COMPLETED: FESILTY US commercial launch (fibrinogen, human-chmt) live Jun 15 2026","type":"launch","binary":false,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Grifols announced the US commercial launch of FESILTY (fibrinogen, human-chmt) for acute bleeding in congenital fibrinogen deficiency on Jun 15, 2026 (FDA-approved Dec 2025).","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/15/3311727/0/en/Grifols-Launches-FESILTY-fibrinogen-human-chmt-in-the-U-S.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.7531287,"successTP":16.7531287,"baseTP":16.7531287,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"albumin","indication":"cirrhosis_ascites","title":"China albumin pricing/volume recovery test (FY26 guidance dependency)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/grifols-fy-2025-slides-ig-growth-drives-guidance-beat-despite-albumin-drag-93CH-4529303","_confidence":"medium","failTP":16.7531287,"successTP":16.7531287,"baseTP":16.7531287,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Late Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"prolastin","indication":"a1at","title":"SPARTA Phase 3 (alpha-1 antitrypsin 60 vs 120 mg/kg, emphysema outcomes) top-line results -- LPLV Aug 2026; label/dose-differentiation readout for the commercial Prolastin franchise","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.grifols.com/en/h1-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.7531287,"successTP":16.7531287,"baseTP":16.7531287,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Ongoing","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"albumin","indication":"cirrhosis_ascites","title":"Net debt deleveraging (4.2x leverage at H1 2026; ALL 2027 maturities refinanced Jul 2026 + EUR 500M 2030 bond redeemed; no significant maturities until Q4 2028)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.grifols.com/en/h1-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.7531287,"successTP":16.7531287,"baseTP":16.7531287,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":7150,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":63,"ceilPct":50,"position":"unpositioned","asset":"immunoglobulin","ind":"mmn","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.mmn","somB":0.6,"tamB":1}},"lenses":{"comparable":39.91,"eeRel":1.2385,"peRel":1.4601}},"GSK":{"name":"GSK plc (GlaxoSmithKline)","subtitle":"Q2'26 sales GBP 8.4B (+5% CER), FY26 CER guidance reaffirmed at the upper half | NUVALENT ACQUIRED $10.6B -- JIDEYTRO FDA-approved Jul'26 in ROS1+ NSCLC | 20+ Ph3 starts","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2030,"netCashLocal":-20351,"cashPS":-10.0251,"tps":{"mega_bear":23.59,"bear":38.5,"base":60.55,"bull":88.63,"psychedelic_bull":122.72},"weightedTP":65.52,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","infectious_disease.vaccines.zoster","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","immunology.autoimmune.egpa","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.hiv","infectious_disease.viral.hiv.prep","immunology.autoimmune.sle","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","infectious_disease.vaccines.meningococcal","infectious_disease.vaccines.rotavirus","infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","infectious_disease.bacterial.respiratory_community","infectious_disease.bacterial","urology.lower_tract.bph","urology","urology.lower_tract","infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","infectious_disease.bacterial.vaginosis","respiratory.inflammatory.chronic_cough","oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.nsclc.alk"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.triple_therapy_ics_laba_lama","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","vaccine.protein_subunit.zoster","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il5","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.hiv_integrase_2drug","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.hiv_integrase_dtg","small_molecule.kinase.hiv_integrase_lai","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_baff","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","small_molecule.kinase.jak1_2_acvr1","vaccine.protein_subunit.rsv","vaccine.protein_subunit.meningococcal","vaccine.live_attenuated.rotavirus","vaccine.live_attenuated","vaccine.protein_subunit.pertussis","vaccine.protein_subunit.influenza","vaccine.protein_subunit.hepatitis","small_molecule.gpcr.bronchodilator_legacy","small_molecule.enzyme.parp1_2","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.bcma","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.antibacterial.dna_gyrase","small_molecule.antibacterial","small_molecule.ion_channel.p2x3_antagonist","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.kinase.ros1","small_molecule.kinase.alk"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":50},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":47},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":42},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":25},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":25},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":23},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.zoster","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.prep","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.meningococcal","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.chronic_cough","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.egpa","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rotavirus","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.respiratory_community","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.bph","purity":1},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.vaginosis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":48},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":47},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":44},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":26},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":26},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":24},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.zoster","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.prep","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.meningococcal","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.egpa","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rotavirus","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.respiratory_community","purity":1},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.bph","purity":1},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":1},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.chronic_cough","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.vaginosis","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":33},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.vaginosis","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":3},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.zoster","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.egpa","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.prep","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.meningococcal","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rotavirus","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.respiratory_community","purity":0},{"area":"urology.lower_tract.bph","purity":0},{"area":"urology.lower_tract","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.chronic_cough","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":4,"optionality":4,"totalTAM":348.49685,"totalWTD":333.639124},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"blenrep_relaunch","indication":"blen_mm_2l","title":"REPORTED: Blenrep MM relaunch FDA refiling/approval","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-belantamab-mafodotin-blmf-relapsed-or-refractory-multiple-myeloma","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin-blmf) + bortezomib/dexamethasone for R/R multiple myeloma (>=2 prior lines) on Oct 23, 2025 on the DREAMM-7 Ph3 (BVd 51% reduction in risk of death vs DVd); available via REMS for ocular toxicity -- successful U.S. relaunch. Outcome was within the config's already-high success case; no valuation change.","failTP":63.0805081,"successTP":67.4193615,"baseTP":65.523642,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-20","asset":"trelegy","indication":"trelegy_copd","title":"REPORTED 2026-07: JIDEYTRO (zidesamtinib) FDA APPROVED for pretreated ROS1-positive NSCLC, ahead of the Sep 18 2026 action date -- GSK's first lung-cancer medicine, from the $10.6B Nuvalent acquisition (no asset entry in this config yet -- see FLAG)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/jideytro-zidesamtinib-approved-in-the-us-for-previously-treated-ros1-positive-non-small-cell-lung-cancer/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Confirmed FDA approval of an acquired asset. Factual and material, but the product has no asset/indication entry in this config, so there is no salesM or pos/apr field to update -- flagged for scaffolding rather than forced into an existing bucket.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":65.523642,"successTP":65.523642,"baseTP":65.523642,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-28","asset":"trelegy","indication":"trelegy_copd","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-28: Q2'26 sales GBP 8.4B (+5% CER), core op profit +7%, core EPS +9%; FY26 CER guidance reaffirmed at the upper half; 'Accelerate Growth' launched (GBP 1.9B annual savings by 2029, 20+ Ph3 starts in 2026 vs 10 planned)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-delivers-strong-q2-core-results-performance-and-continued-momentum/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Beat-and-reaffirm with a step-change in late-stage investment. No single pipeline assumption in this config maps to it; commercialRevM and the missing Nuvalent assets are flagged for the user.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":65.523642,"successTP":65.523642,"baseTP":65.523642,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"dovato","indication":"dovato_hiv","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-27: COMPETITOR -- FDA approved Gilead Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75mg / lenacapavir 50mg), the smallest once-daily single-tablet regimen, as a complete SWITCH for virologically suppressed adults (ARTISTRY-1/-2). Aimed at patients who cannot use existing STRs -- resistance, tolerability, complex multi-tablet regimens -- rather than at the treatment-naive pool Dovato leads, so adjacent rather than head-on","type":"other","_outcome":"completed","_source":"Gilead PR Aug 27 2026 (gilead.com)","failTP":65.523642,"successTP":65.523642,"baseTP":65.523642,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-27","asset":"neladalkib","indication":"alk_nsclc","title":"Neladalkib PDUFA -- FDA action date Nov 27 2026 for TKI-pretreated advanced ALK-positive NSCLC (Priority Review, pivotal ALKOVE-1)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.onclive.com/view/fda-grants-priority-review-to-neladalkib-for-tki-pretreated-alk-nsclc","_confidence":"high","failTP":64.9850734,"successTP":65.7862667,"baseTP":65.523642,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"depemokimab","indication":"depe_asthma","title":"Depemokimab SWIFT severe asthma FDA filing/approval","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"GSK pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":64.3428193,"successTP":66.7815292,"baseTP":65.523642,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"neladalkib","indication":"alk_nsclc","title":"Neladalkib Phase 3 ALKAZAR topline vs alectinib in TKI-naive ALK-positive NSCLC -- the 1L expansion that carries most of the franchise value","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://investors.nuvalent.com/2026-05-27-Nuvalent-Announces-Key-Program-and-Business-Updates,-Strengthening-Foundation-for-Global-Leadership-in-ROS1-and-ALK-positive-NSCLC","_confidence":"medium","failTP":65.1274943,"successTP":65.7640717,"baseTP":65.523642,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":45310,"lenses":{"comparable":29.14,"eeRel":1.0467,"peRel":0.7659}},"GYRE":{"name":"Gyre Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"China fibrosis franchise FY25 $115M: ETUARY (pirfenidone) IPF $103M + Etorel + Contiva | F351 hydronidone CHB-fibrosis NMPA NDA accepted May26 -- decision H2 26/H1 27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":115.48,"netCashLocal":103.2,"cashPS":0.8937,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.58,"bear":12.28,"base":20.95,"bull":29.91,"psychedelic_bull":38.82},"weightedTP":21.38,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","infectious_disease.viral.hbv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias"],"modalities":["small_molecule.pleiotropic.antifibrotic_pirfenidone","small_molecule","small_molecule.pleiotropic","small_molecule.pleiotropic.antifibrotic_hydronidone","small_molecule.kinase.nintedanib","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.cytokine_receptor.tpo_avatrombopag","small_molecule.cytokine_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":75},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":50},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":37},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":25},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":108},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":65},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":54},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":33},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":27},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":14}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":178},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":89},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":12},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":5}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":13,"rarePurityWtd":14,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":41.28,"totalWTD":38.33832},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"etuary","indication":"etuary_ipf","title":"ETUARY RILI Ph2/3 update + DMD-fibrosis exploratory data","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.38151408,"successTP":12.0931917,"baseTP":21.3819768,"swingPct":18,"successMove":-43,"failMove":-61,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-43,"daysOut":null,"materiality":52},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"f351","indication":"f351_chb","title":"F351 hydronidone NMPA approval decision -- CHB liver fibrosis (KEY)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_confidence":"high","failTP":19.0534063,"successTP":22.3063205,"baseTP":21.3819768,"swingPct":8,"successMove":2,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"f351","indication":"f351_chb","title":"F351 ex-China partnering / licensing announcement","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":19.0205599,"successTP":20.2415423,"baseTP":21.3819768,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":112,"lenses":{"comparable":39.96},"readouts":[{"a":"etuary","ind":"etuary_ipf","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":100.946136,"lo":-67.1009954,"hi":272.833817,"pBeatBest":0.1462,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193}]},"HALO":{"name":"Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"ENHANZE rHuPH20 SC royalty platform | FY26 guide RAISED $1.71-1.81B rev / $1.13-1.17B royalties | Q2'26 rev $481M, royalties $308M +50% | Sep'26: $1.3B 1.50% converts due 2033","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":113.5,"netCashLocal":-2412.9,"cashPS":-21.259,"tps":{"mega_bear":29.84,"bear":63.32,"base":102.09,"bull":172.57,"psychedelic_bull":309.14},"weightedTP":114.31,"meta":{"areas":["_royalty.halo_enhanze","_royalty","endocrine.gonadal.hypogonadism","endocrine","endocrine.gonadal","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","_royalty.hypercon"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.delivery_enhancer.rhuph20","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.delivery_enhancer","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ar_testosterone","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.methotrexate","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","formulation_modifier.delivery_enhancer.hypercon"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":182},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":91},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.hypogonadism","purity":18},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":9},{"area":"_royalty.halo_enhanze","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.hypercon","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":182},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":91},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.hypogonadism","purity":18},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":9},{"area":"_royalty.halo_enhanze","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.hypercon","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.hypogonadism","purity":126},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":74},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":63},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":37},{"area":"_royalty.halo_enhanze","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.hypercon","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":34.304104,"totalWTD":34.3040722},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-09-19","dateSort":"2025-09-19","asset":"enhanze_royalty","indication":"enhanze_io_oncology","title":"REPORTED (2025-09, success): Merck Keytruda Qlex SC (pembrolizumab+berahyaluronidase, ENHANZE) FDA APPROVED -- major royalty unlock; already reflected in pos 96-98","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Merck Keytruda SC filing","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved Keytruda Qlex subcutaneous Sept 19, 2025; major royalty unlock for Halozyme ENHANZE platform","_outcomeSource":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-pembrolizumab-and-berahyaluronidase-alfa-pmph-subcutaneous-injection","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":114.309278,"successTP":114.309278,"baseTP":114.309278,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":96,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-16","asset":"enhanze_royalty","indication":"enhanze_io_oncology","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-16: priced an upsized $1.3B of 1.50% convertible senior notes due 2033 (conv. px ~$139.84); $652.5M used to retire 2027/2028 converts, $162.5M to capped calls -- net cash +$460M, net debt +$928M | CLOSED 2026-09-22 with the $200M option EXERCISED: $1.5B principal, net proceeds ~$1.47B, capped calls $187.5M","type":"other","failTP":114.309278,"successTP":114.309278,"baseTP":114.309278,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"enhanze_royalty","indication":"enhanze_io_oncology","title":"AZ Imfinzi SC durvalumab (Ph1 only, NCT07391670 started Mar'26 -- not a 2026 approval) + new ENHANZE deal flow","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Halozyme FY25 IR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":114.309278,"successTP":114.309278,"baseTP":114.309278,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"hypercon","indication":"hypercon_pipeline","title":"Hypercon first 2 partner programs enter clinic (milestone trigger up to $275M)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Halozyme Elektrofi integration","_confidence":"medium","failTP":114.309263,"successTP":114.309311,"baseTP":114.309278,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":47,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1058,"lenses":{"comparable":35.13,"eeRel":1.041,"peRel":0.6194}},"HANMI":{"name":"Hanmi Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.","subtitle":"Korean innovative pharma | FY25 KRW 1.65T / ~$1.20B | Korea Rx 58% (Rosuzet + Amosartan combos) + China Beijing Hanmi JV + LAPSCOVERY platform discovery","currency":"KRW","country":"KR","region":"ASIA.KR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":12.81,"netCashLocal":-17740,"cashPS":-1384.8556,"tps":{"mega_bear":175088.73,"bear":276284.12,"base":399745.05,"bull":597640.6,"psychedelic_bull":998739.59},"weightedTP":411449.9,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.hanmi_hanmi_korea_rx_other","_established_products","_established_products.hanmi_hanmi_china_jv_other","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology.liver","endocrine.metabolic.congenital_hyperinsulinism","endocrine","endocrine.metabolic","gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","oncology.skin.melanoma.nras_mut","oncology","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.long_acting","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip_glucagon","peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon.analog","peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon","peptide.hormone_analog.glp2","small_molecule.kinase.pan_raf","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":57},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":52},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":29},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":26},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":16},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":15},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":9},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":4},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.congenital_hyperinsulinism","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.hanmi_hanmi_korea_rx_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hanmi_hanmi_china_jv_other","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.nras_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":65},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":40},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":33},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.hanmi_hanmi_korea_rx_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hanmi_hanmi_china_jv_other","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.congenital_hyperinsulinism","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.nras_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":124},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":62},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.congenital_hyperinsulinism","purity":62},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":31},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":13},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hanmi_hanmi_korea_rx_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hanmi_hanmi_china_jv_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.nras_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":14,"totalTAM":550.8205,"totalWTD":482.3611},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-10-27","dateSort":"2025-10-27","asset":"efpeglenatide","indication":"obesity","title":"REPORTED 2025-10 (HIT): efpeglenatide H.O.P.E. Phase 3 core-treatment topline in obesity -- 448 adults with obesity and without diabetes, mean weight reduction 9.75% at week 40 vs negligible change on placebo; GI adverse events lower or milder than existing GLP-1s; maximum reduction 30.14% and 12.20% mean in women with BMI <30. Efficacy lags Western incretins but the endpoint was met. MFDS granted Global Innovative Product Fast-Track (GIFT) status 5-Dec-2025 and Korean launch is being guided as imminent","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Hanmi pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Phase 3 data positive: 79.4% achieved ≥5% weight loss vs 14.5% placebo; up to 30% weight reduction; FDA fast-track granted","_outcomeSource":"https://www.archyde.com/hanmi-pharmaceutical-confirms-that-its-new-obesity-drug-is-effective-in-reducing-weight-by-up-to-30/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":411396.543,"successTP":411475.866,"baseTP":411449.898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"efpeglenatide","indication":"obesity","title":"Efpeglenatide obesity MFDS (Korea) approval decision -- NDA filed Dec 17 2025, supplementary data submitted; approval expected as early as Oct 2026 (press)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.ajunews.com/view/20260929154153008","_confidence":"low","failTP":411386.022,"successTP":411425.864,"baseTP":411449.898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"hm15912","indication":"sbs","title":"HM15912 SBS Ph2 readout","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Hanmi pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":411447.585,"successTP":411451.742,"baseTP":411449.898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"efocipegtrutide","indication":"mash","title":"Efocipegtrutide MASH Ph2 biopsy readout","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":80,"_source":"Hanmi pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":411442.322,"successTP":411456.064,"baseTP":411449.898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":33,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"hm15136","indication":"chi","title":"HM15136 CHI Ph2 readout","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Hanmi pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":411407.645,"successTP":411486.025,"baseTP":411449.898,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1121,"lenses":{"comparable":374538.78,"eeRel":0.5497},"readouts":[{"a":"efpeglenatide","ind":"obesity","ds":"2025-10-27","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":14.8506801,"lo":-0.643602563,"hi":28.136379,"pBeatBest":0.09255,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"efocipegtrutide","ind":"mash","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":24.6347227,"lo":2.78192904,"hi":53.3975655,"pBeatBest":0.09935,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"HCM":{"name":"HUTCHMED (China) Limited","subtitle":"China oncology + Takeda Fruzaqla royalty | FY25 $548M | savolitinib SAFFRON Ph3 HIT, US NDA filed Sep29'26 | sovleplenib ITP + wAIHA NDAs under NMPA review | GSK A830 licence Sep'26","currency":"USD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":174.5,"netCashLocal":1367,"cashPS":7.8338,"tps":{"mega_bear":14.4,"bear":20.16,"base":26.46,"bull":36,"psychedelic_bull":57.58},"weightedTP":26.9,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","oncology.neuroendocrine","oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.multi_tki","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.met","small_molecule.kinase.syk","small_molecule.kinase.fgfr"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":67},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":37},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":75},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":70},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":70},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":32},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":88},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":7}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":29,"rarePurityWtd":26,"optionality":5,"totalTAM":28.5213,"totalWTD":27.2286712},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 17 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-17","asset":"saffron","indication":"nsclc_saffron","title":"REPORTED: SAFFRON Ph3 HIT Aug 17 2026 -- ORPATHYS (savolitinib) + TAGRISSO beat platinum doublet chemo on BOTH PFS and OS (statistically significant, clinically meaningful) in MET-driven EGFRm NSCLC post-osimertinib","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"HUTCHMED PR 2026-08-17 (globenewswire 3345800; hutch-med.com/saffron-global-phase-3-readout)","_confidence":"high","_note":"slipped: H1 2026 topline guidance passed with no readout as of 2026-07-06; last patient randomized Oct 31 2025, data submitted for medical-congress presentation; rolled to H2 2026","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Dual PFS + OS win in a population with no oral biomarker-directed option. pos/apr moved to the pre-declared success_pos/success_apr (88/92) in base and scaled monotonically; residual risk is regulatory + AZ launch execution.","failTP":26.6585196,"successTP":27.0035371,"baseTP":26.903601,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Sep 29 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-09-29","asset":"saffron","indication":"nsclc_saffron","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-29: US NDA submitted to FDA for ORPATHYS (savolitinib) + TAGRISSO in MET-driven EGFRm NSCLC post-osimertinib, based on SAFFRON (HUTCHMED 6-K). Priority review / PDUFA date not yet disclosed","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":88,"fail_apr":92,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001648257/000164825726000064/hcm-20260929x6k.htm","_confidence":"high","_note":"Expected procedural step after the Aug 17 SAFFRON win; no PoS/APR change. asset.status phase3 -> filed on 2026-09-30.","failTP":26.8114141,"successTP":27.0035371,"baseTP":26.903601,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"saffron","indication":"nsclc_saffron","title":"FDA decision on ORPATHYS + TAGRISSO NDA (SAFFRON; submitted Sep 29 2026). Date ESTIMATED from a standard new-molecular-entity review clock -- move up if acceptance with priority review is announced","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":88,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001648257/000164825726000064/hcm-20260929x6k.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":26.6860899,"successTP":26.9808008,"baseTP":26.903601,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":225,"lenses":{"comparable":20.03,"peRel":0.1837}},"HELP":{"name":"Cybin Inc. (dba Helus Pharma)","subtitle":"Psychedelic mental-health (ex-Cybin, now Helus, Nasdaq HELP) | HLP003 deut-psilocybin Ph3 MDD -- APPROACH topline Q4'26, FDA Breakthrough | HLP004 deut-DMT Ph2 GAD hit Jun'26 | ~$195M cash","currency":"USD","country":"CA","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":62,"netCashLocal":195,"cashPS":3.1452,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.48,"bear":6.24,"base":9.78,"bull":19.28,"psychedelic_bull":25.74},"weightedTP":10.18,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","_platform.psychedelic_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.psychedelic_psilocybin","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.psychedelic_dmt","_platform.discovery.psychedelic","_platform","_platform.discovery"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":85},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":85},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":30},{"area":"_platform.psychedelic_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":88},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":88},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":24},{"area":"_platform.psychedelic_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":73},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":73},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":53},{"area":"_platform.psychedelic_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":154,"totalTAM":17.944,"totalWTD":7.072464},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-29","asset":"hlp004","indication":"hlp004_gad","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-29: HLP004 (deut-DMT) Ph2 GAD topline POSITIVE -- ~10pt HAM-A improvement over standard of care at 6wk, p<0.0001; next study design being finalized","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-06-29: Ph2 signal-detection GAD hit (~10pt HAM-A vs SoC, p<0.0001). De-risks HLP004; next (registrational) study design ~end Q3 2026. Source: Cybin/Helus IR.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":7.19052461,"successTP":12.3716155,"baseTP":10.1761393,"swingPct":51,"successMove":22,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"hlp004","indication":"hlp004_gad","title":"HLP004 GAD next (registrational) study design completion / path forward","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"Helus FY2026 results","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.95414424,"successTP":9.18849246,"baseTP":10.1761393,"swingPct":11,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"hlp003","indication":"hlp003_mdd","title":"HLP003 APPROACH Phase 3 MDD topline (first PARADIGM pivotal) -- KEY VALUE DRIVER","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Cybin PARADIGM program (BusinessWire); APPROACH ~88% enrolled mid-2026, topline guided Q4 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.42957992,"successTP":18.5986186,"baseTP":10.1761393,"swingPct":139,"successMove":83,"failMove":-56,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":30,"daysOut":null,"materiality":64},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"hlp003","indication":"hlp003_mdd","title":"HLP003 EMBRACE Phase 3 MDD topline (second PARADIGM pivotal; exact timing not disclosed)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Cybin PARADIGM program","_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.42957992,"successTP":18.5986186,"baseTP":10.1761393,"swingPct":139,"successMove":83,"failMove":-56,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":30,"daysOut":null,"materiality":64},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"hlp005","indication":"hlp005_disc","title":"HLP005 development-candidate selection (neuropsychiatric)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"Helus FY2026 pipeline guidance","_confidence":"low","failTP":10.1761393,"successTP":10.1761393,"baseTP":10.1761393,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":7,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"hlp003","indication":"hlp003_mdd","title":"HLP003 potential FDA NDA submission (MDD) -- pending APPROACH + EMBRACE","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"Helus guidance","_confidence":"low","failTP":2.64434376,"successTP":5.07365873,"baseTP":10.1761393,"swingPct":12,"successMove":-25,"failMove":-37,"yourPoS":41,"expectedReturn":-32,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":10.35}},"HIK":{"name":"Hikma Pharmaceuticals plc","subtitle":"MENA-rooted UK FTSE-100 generics specialist | H1'26 core rev +4%, core op profit $405M (+9%), Branded +15% | FY26 guide held: rev +2-4%, core op $720-770M | Net debt ~GBP1.1B","currency":"GBP","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":220,"netCashLocal":-1092,"cashPS":-4.9636,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.44,"bear":11.3,"base":15.2,"bull":21.09,"psychedelic_bull":29.88},"weightedTP":15.52,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.substance_use","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.hik_hik_us_injectables_other","_established_products","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.hik_hik_eu_injectables_other","_established_products.hik_hik_us_oral_other","_established_products.hik_hik_mena_branded_other"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor.colchicine_tubulin","small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":77},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":39},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":21},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_us_injectables_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_eu_injectables_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_us_oral_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_mena_branded_other","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":78},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":39},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":21},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":8},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_us_injectables_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_eu_injectables_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_us_oral_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_mena_branded_other","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":122},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":61},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":39},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_us_injectables_other","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_eu_injectables_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_us_oral_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.hik_hik_mena_branded_other","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":812.8375,"totalWTD":809.377728},"catalysts":[{"date":"2022-03-15","dateSort":"2022-03-15","asset":"hik_us_oral","indication":"hik_us_oral_outpatient_generic","title":"RESOLVED (historical, success): Generic Symbicort + complex inhaler approvals -- Hikma generic budesonide/formoterol launched; long since baked into commercial generics revenue","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Hikma pipeline disclosure","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"First generic Symbicort (budesonide/formoterol) approved by FDA March 15, 2022; granted to Mylan Pharmaceuticals","_outcomeSource":"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-generic-symbicort-treat-asthma-and-copd","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":15.5216661,"successTP":15.5216661,"baseTP":15.5216661,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":66,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-06","asset":"hik_us_oral","indication":"hik_us_oral_outpatient_generic","title":"REPORTED: Hikma H1 2026 -- core revenue +4%, core operating profit $405M (+9%); Branded revenue $502M (+15%) with core operating profit $163M (+23%) and margin +2.1pp to 32.5%; Injectables flat (Europe and MENA growth offsetting a US decline). FY26 guidance REITERATED (group revenue +2-4%, core operating profit $720-770M) with BRANDED raised to the TOP END of its 6-8% range","type":"other","severity":"medium","failTP":15.5216661,"successTP":15.5216661,"baseTP":15.5216661,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":44,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Feb-Mar 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-01","asset":"hik_us_injectables","indication":"hik_us_injectables_outpatient_generic","title":"Hikma FY2026 full-year results + FY2027 guidance (Generics / Injectables / Branded MENA segment growth, net debt trajectory)","type":"other","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":15.5216661,"successTP":15.5216661,"baseTP":15.5216661,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3052,"lenses":{"comparable":25.92,"eeRel":2.339,"peRel":2.5198}},"HIMS":{"name":"Hims & Hers Health, Inc.","subtitle":"DTC telehealth subscription platform (FY25 $2.35B +59%, adj EBITDA $318M, GM 74%); 2.51M subs (+13%) | Mar'26 Novo Nordisk settlement: branded Wegovy $149/mo; FDA crackdown on compounded GLP-1","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":233.3,"netCashLocal":-529,"cashPS":-2.2675,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.04,"bear":17.57,"base":29.73,"bull":54.91,"psychedelic_bull":99.23},"weightedTP":36.74,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","dermatology.aesthetics.filler","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.semaglutide_branded","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","_diversified.services.telehealth_mental_health","_diversified","_diversified.services","_diversified.branded.derm_telehealth","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.enzyme.pde5","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":173},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":86},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":4},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":173},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":86},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":4},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":166.68,"totalWTD":166.68},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 11 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-05-11","asset":"hims_glp1","indication":"hims_obesity","title":"REPORTED (May 11 2026): HIMS Q1 2026 revenue $608.1M (+4% YoY, low end of $600-625M guide -- slight miss); net loss $92.1M on ~$33.5M restructuring/inventory write-downs from US weight-loss pivot; adj EBITDA $44.3M; GM 65% (from 73%); US rev -8%, offset by international","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"HIMS IR May 11 print","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-11T00:00:00Z (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":36.742291,"successTP":36.742291,"baseTP":36.742291,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 29 2026 (filed)","dateSort":"2026-07-29","asset":"hims_glp1","indication":"hims_obesity","title":"REPORTED: FTC + Utah + LA County sued Hims & Hers (N.D. Cal., Jul 29 2026) over subscription enrollment/cancellation (ROSCA) and sharing sensitive health data with ad platforms; pre-consultation billing alleged. Stock -10% on the day. Company denies and will \"vigorously defend\".","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"FTC press release \"FTC and States Act Against Hims & Hers for Deceptive and Unlawful Privacy Practices\" (Jul 2026), https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/07/ftc-states-act-against-hims-hers-deceptive-unlawful-privacy-practices ; company response Jul 29 2026; CNBC Jul 29 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Surprise event -- no pre-declared catalyst existed. Config is SOTP and every HIMS asset is commercial-classified, so scenario pen/pos/apr are inert and val.commercialRevM is the only live lever; commercialRevM is valuation structure and was NOT auto-edited. Captured as narrative + events + this catalyst; FLAGGED 2026-08-18 for a manual re-rate of the downside commercialRevM / subscription-churn assumption.","failTP":36.742291,"successTP":36.742291,"baseTP":36.742291,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-06","asset":"hims_glp1","indication":"hims_obesity","title":"REPORTED: HIMS Q2 2026 -- GAAP NET LOSS $86.3M (vs +$42.5M profit a year earlier); gross margin 64% vs 76% YoY; $62.5M cumulative FTC accrual of which $47.5M was taken in the quarter","type":"other","severity":"high","failTP":36.742291,"successTP":36.742291,"baseTP":36.742291,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-03","asset":"hims_glp1","indication":"hims_obesity","title":"REPORTED: securities class action filed against Hims & Hers and certain executives (Sep 3 2026) following the FTC complaint -- litigation overhang on top of the Jul 29 2026 FTC/Utah/LA County suit","type":"other","severity":"medium","failTP":36.742291,"successTP":36.742291,"baseTP":36.742291,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"hims_glp1","indication":"hims_obesity","title":"FY26 guide RAISED twice: $2.8-3.0B rev at Q1 print (May 2026), then $3.1-3.3B rev / $275-325M adj EBITDA at Q2 print (Aug 2026); branded GLP-1/Wegovy ramp broadening reach","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"HIMS FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":36.742291,"successTP":36.742291,"baseTP":36.742291,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2350,"lenses":{"comparable":34}},"HLN":{"name":"Haleon","subtitle":"Global consumer health (GSK spin-off Jul'22): Sensodyne + Advil + Panadol + Voltaren + Theraflu + Polident + parodontax + Centrum; FY25 £11.0B rev (+3% org); FY26 guide 3-5%; MCap $47B","currency":"GBP","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":4541.86,"netCashLocal":1000,"cashPS":0.2202,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.36,"bear":10.22,"base":11.59,"bull":13.38,"psychedelic_bull":16.3},"weightedTP":11.68,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.consumer.otc_diversified","_diversified","_diversified.consumer"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":210,"totalWTD":210},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"consumer_health_portfolio","indication":"haleon_otc_diversified","title":"Haleon FY 2026 organic revenue growth execution (3-5% guide)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.haleon.com/content/dam/haleon/corporate/documents/investors/results/full-year-results-2025/fy25-statement.pdf.downloadasset.pdf","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.39109,"successTP":13.0066923,"baseTP":11.684467,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":13800,"lenses":{"comparable":10.96,"peRel":1.3673}},"HLUN_B":{"name":"H. Lundbeck A/S","subtitle":"CNS-focused: Vyepti (CGRP migraine) + Rexulti + Trintellix + Abilify Maintena commercial; Amlenetug MSA Ph3 + Bexicaserin Dravet Ph3 (Longboard $2.6B Dec 2024)","currency":"DKK","country":"DK","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":992,"netCashLocal":-10000,"cashPS":-10.0806,"tps":{"mega_bear":15.6,"bear":36.73,"base":67.05,"bull":112.94,"psychedelic_bull":171.5},"weightedTP":68.72,"meta":{"areas":["cns.pain.migraine","cns","cns.pain","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.msa","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee","cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cgrp","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.gpcr.atypical_antipsychotic","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.serotonin_modulator","biologic.antibody.mab.alpha_synuclein","small_molecule.gpcr.5ht2c_agonist"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":65},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":58},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":36},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":36},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":21},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":18},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":15},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.msa","purity":10},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":7},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":7},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":7},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":72},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":64},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":40},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":40},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":16},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":16},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":14},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.msa","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":68},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":36},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":34},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":21},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":21},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":17},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":15},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.msa","purity":12},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":11},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":11},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":12,"rarePurityWtd":9,"optionality":11,"totalTAM":84.759,"totalWTD":76.390197},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"bexicaserin","indication":"dravet","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-15: LAST PATIENT RANDOMIZED in DEEp SEA, the Ph3 of bexicaserin in Dravet syndrome (>100 participants aged 2-65; eligible patients roll into the 52-week open-label extension) -- enrolment risk retired, topline stays 2027","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.lundbeck.com/us/newsroom/2025/lundbeck-announces-positive-results-from-12-month-open-label-ext","_confidence":"high","failTP":66.8742946,"successTP":68.1802501,"baseTP":68.7236066,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"amlenetug","indication":"msa","title":"Amlenetug MASCOT Ph3 MSA enrollment milestone (interim 2027+)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.neurologylive.com/view/inside-the-phase-3-mascot-trial-lundbeck-push-first-disease-modifying-msa-therapy","_confidence":"high","failTP":67.2482515,"successTP":68.2869826,"baseTP":68.7236066,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-01-31","asset":"bexicaserin","indication":"dee_broad","title":"Bexicaserin DEEp OCEAN Ph3 HEADLINE RESULTS in developmental and epileptic encephalopathies incl. Lennox-Gastaut (Dravet excluded) -- randomisation completed Jul 2026, company guides end-Q4 2026 / Q1 2027. Previously UNMODELLED and the nearest binary on the asset","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"failTP":68.0698201,"successTP":69.242584,"baseTP":68.7236066,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"trintellix","indication":"mdd","title":"Trintellix LOE (composition-of-matter expiration)","type":"loe","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/lundbeck-earnings-demand-strategic-brands-helps-offset-generic-erosion-mature-portfolio","_confidence":"high","failTP":68.7236066,"successTP":68.7236066,"baseTP":68.7236066,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rexulti","indication":"ad_agitation","title":"Rexulti AD-agitation share defence vs Auvelity (AXS-05), FDA-approved into the same indication Apr 30 2026 -- first direct competitor; watch pen in the FY27 franchise numbers","type":"other","failTP":68.7236066,"successTP":68.7236066,"baseTP":68.7236066,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-01","asset":"amlenetug","indication":"msa","title":"Amlenetug MASCOT MSA Ph3 topline results","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://news.cision.com/h--lundbeck-a-s/r/lundbeck-announces-last-patient-randomized-ahead-of-schedule-in-phase-3-mascot-trial,c4318514","_addedAt":"2026-06-01T12:20:58Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Phase 3 MASCOT trial in MSA with last patient randomized March 2026; headline results anticipated Q3 2027","failTP":67.2482515,"successTP":69.5555043,"baseTP":68.7236066,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027+","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"abilify_maintena","indication":"schizophrenia_lai","title":"Abilify Maintena generic LAI entry (US patent erosion) -- VERIFIED 2026-09-18: the FDA has approved NO generic of Abilify Maintena (aripiprazole extended-release injectable suspension) as of mid-Aug 2026, so the erosion the config was pricing for Q3'26 has not begun. Rolled forward as a live watch item","type":"loe","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/lundbeck-earnings-demand-strategic-brands-helps-offset-generic-erosion-mature-portfolio","_confidence":"high","failTP":68.7236066,"successTP":68.7236066,"baseTP":68.7236066,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"bexicaserin","indication":"dravet","title":"Bexicaserin DEEp SEA Ph3 Dravet topline readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/lundbeck-longboard-acquisition-deal-seizures-epilepsy-rare-drug/729745/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":67.2345141,"successTP":69.5099485,"baseTP":68.7236066,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":2357,"lenses":{"comparable":75.64,"eeRel":2.339,"peRel":2.9673}},"HNSA":{"name":"Hansa Biopharma AB","subtitle":"Swedish IgG-cleaving enzyme | H1'26 Idefirix sales SEK 80.7M (-29% YoY) | EU rights out-licensed to SERB (EUR 110M upfront) | US PDUFA Dec 19 2026 | HNSA-5487 next-gen enzyme for GBS","currency":"SEK","country":"SE","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":101.763,"netCashLocal":1800,"cashPS":17.6882,"tps":{"mega_bear":19.75,"bear":22.15,"base":26.45,"bull":33.56,"psychedelic_bull":112.52},"weightedTP":31.31,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.transplant.solid_organ","immunology","immunology.transplant","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.gbs","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.igg_cleaving_protease","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":179},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":89},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.gbs","purity":21},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":193},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.gbs","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.gbs","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":6.059,"totalWTD":5.6054},"catalysts":[{"date":"Dec 19 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-12-19","asset":"idefirix","indication":"idefirix_kidney_desens","title":"Idefirix (imlifidase) US PDUFA action date Dec 19 2026 -- BLA accepted Feb 2026 on ConfIdeS Ph3; first US therapy for highly-sensitized kidney-transplant candidates if approved","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Hansa Biopharma PR \"PDUFA Action Date for Hansa Biopharma's Imlifidase BLA Set for December 19, 2026\" (Mar 4 2026) + \"BLA for imlifidase accepted by the FDA\" (Feb 19 2026); https://www.hansabiopharma.com/media/press-releases/2026/pdufa-action-date-for-hansa-biopharmas-imlifidase-bla-set-for-december-19-2026/","_confidence":"high","_note":"REPAIRED 2026-08-18: this entry previously carried the HNSA-5487 GBS title (a copy-paste over the original Idefirix BLA catalyst) while keeping asset=idefirix/indication=idefirix_kidney_desens, which made it look like a duplicate of the next catalyst and left the single largest near-term event -- the US PDUFA -- untracked. Restored to the Idefirix US regulatory decision with the FDA-confirmed action date. pos/apr held at 100/100 both ways because imlifidase is already conditionally approved in the EU/UK, so the US action moves PENETRATION, not clinical PoS: a positive action supports base idefirix pen 1.0 and the US launch ramp; a CRL/major delay should cut idefirix pen ~25-30% and is a manual re-rate.","failTP":31.3096183,"successTP":31.3096183,"baseTP":31.3096183,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"hnsa_5487","indication":"hnsa5487_gbs","title":"HNSA-5487 FDA interactions for GBS Ph3 design (post H1 slip)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":78,"_source":"Hansa FY25 PR","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"2026-10-05: success/fail values re-set to the new pre-pivotal pos/apr ladder (base 40/75); old values were calibrated to the inert 65/78 base.","failTP":31.0161818,"successTP":31.4949852,"baseTP":31.3096183,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"hnsa_5487","indication":"hnsa5487_gbs","title":"HNSA-5487 Phase 2 GBS topline data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Hansa FY25 guidance","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"2026-10-05: success/fail values re-set to the new pre-pivotal pos/apr ladder (base 40/75); old values were calibrated to the inert 65/78 base.","failTP":30.8400602,"successTP":31.6806682,"baseTP":31.3096183,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":21,"lenses":{"comparable":27.03}},"HOWL":{"name":"Ambros Therapeutics, Inc. (HOWL->AMBX, merger closes Q1 2027)","subtitle":"Post-merger AMBX (closes Q1 2027): neridronate IV aminobisphosphonate CRPS-1 (Abiogen North America licence; BTD+FT+ODD); CRPS-RISE Ph3 n=270 dosing, readout 2028; legacy INDUKINE -> CVR","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":714.7,"netCashLocal":190,"cashPS":0.2658,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.25,"bear":0.33,"base":0.51,"bull":0.73,"psychedelic_bull":0.96},"weightedTP":0.53,"meta":{"areas":["cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns","cns.pain"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.fpps_bisphosphonate","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":200},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":200},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":200},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":223,"totalTAM":3.35,"totalWTD":1.0385},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"neridronate","indication":"neridronate_crps1","title":"Werewolf/Ambros reverse merger close + $150M PIPE funds; HOWL -> AMBX (Nasdaq), HQ San Diego; shareholder + Nasdaq approval","type":"ma_close","fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"failTP":0.280491748,"successTP":0.656117548,"baseTP":0.53284539,"swingPct":42,"successMove":14,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"neridronate","indication":"neridronate_crps1","title":"CVR: legacy Werewolf INDUKINE assets (WTX-124 IL-2, WTX-330 IL-12) ring-fenced to legacy HOWL holders -- not an AMBX asset","type":"other","fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"failTP":0.401051151,"successTP":0.656117548,"baseTP":0.53284539,"swingPct":24,"successMove":12,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"neridronate","indication":"neridronate_crps1","title":"CRPS-RISE Phase 3 topline in warm-phase CRPS-1 (KEY BINARY -- single pivotal may support US approval per FDA)","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":3,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"failTP":0.257137328,"successTP":0.933185282,"baseTP":0.53284539,"swingPct":127,"successMove":75,"failMove":-52,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":51},{"date":"2029","dateSort":"2029-03-31","asset":"neridronate","indication":"neridronate_crps1","title":"Neridronate CRPS-1 NDA submission (post CRPS-RISE; BTD/Fast Track rolling review possible)","type":"nda_submission","fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"failTP":0.359219757,"successTP":0.970688479,"baseTP":0.53284539,"swingPct":23,"successMove":16,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.53}},"HRMY":{"name":"Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.","subtitle":"WAKIX (pitolisant) narcolepsy/IH | Q2'26 $261.3M (+30%); FY26 guide $1.0-1.04B | Pitolisant GR NDA ACCEPTED Jul'26, PDUFA Apr 1'27 | PWS Ph3 TEMPO topline mid-2027 | BP-205 orexin-2 Ph1 positive","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":57.84,"netCashLocal":808.5,"cashPS":13.9782,"tps":{"mega_bear":27.18,"bear":46.73,"base":67.75,"bull":91.17,"psychedelic_bull":124.86},"weightedTP":70.15,"meta":{"areas":["cns.sleep.narcolepsy","cns","cns.sleep","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee","cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.histamine_h3_inverse_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.histamine_h1"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":84},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":43},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":42},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":22},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":18},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":18},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":18},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":13},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":113},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":57},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":26},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":18},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":13},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":12},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":12},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":9},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":170},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":85},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":11},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":11},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":8},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":58,"rarePurityWtd":43,"optionality":47,"totalTAM":31.3865,"totalWTD":21.4000237},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"pitolisant_gr","indication":"narc_gr","title":"REPORTED: Pitolisant GR NDA submitted Q2 2026 -- FDA ACCEPTED Jul 2026, PDUFA Apr 1 2027","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"HRMY FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","_note":"NDA submitted on plan in Q2 2026; FDA accepted the filing in July 2026 with target PDUFA Apr 1 2027; launch guided 1H 2027. Filing risk removed -> small bounded de-risking of pitolisant_gr pos (mega_bear 60->68, bear 80->85, base 92->94, bull 95->96). Source: HRMY Q2 2026 PR Aug 4 2026.","_noteSource":"https://ir.harmonybiosciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/harmony-biosciences-announces-positive-results-pivotal/","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/04/3338190/0/en/harmony-biosciences-announces-record-q2-2026-revenue-and-shares-initial-clinical-data-for-its-orexin-2-agonist-bp-205-reinforcing-potential-best-in-class-profile.html","failTP":68.6718866,"successTP":72.5843458,"baseTP":70.1525596,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"wakix","indication":"narc_wakix","title":"FY26 WAKIX revenue guide $1.0-1.04B (blockbuster threshold)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"HRMY FY26 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":70.1525596,"successTP":70.1525596,"baseTP":70.1525596,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Apr 1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-01","asset":"pitolisant_gr","indication":"narc_gr","title":"Pitolisant GR PDUFA (FDA target action date; launch guided 1H 2027)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/04/3338190/0/en/harmony-biosciences-announces-record-q2-2026-revenue-and-shares-initial-clinical-data-for-its-orexin-2-agonist-bp-205-reinforcing-potential-best-in-class-profile.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":65.9384445,"successTP":72.5843458,"baseTP":70.1525596,"swingPct":9,"successMove":3,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Mid-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"pitolisant_pws","indication":"pws_pit","title":"Pitolisant Prader-Willi Ph3 TEMPO topline -- company-reaffirmed MID-2027 (KEY label expansion catalyst)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Harmony Biosciences Q2 2026 business update","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.harmonybiosciences.com/news-releases","_note":"ROLLED 2026-09-03: the config carried a 2026-09-30 date. Harmony reaffirmed the Ph3 TEMPO PWS study is on track for topline in mid-2027. No assumption change -- the event simply is not a 2026 event.","failTP":69.6515181,"successTP":70.4064287,"baseTP":70.1525596,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":868,"lenses":{"comparable":69.28,"eeRel":2.4571,"peRel":1.352}},"HROW":{"name":"Harrow, Inc.","subtitle":"Specialty ophthalmology roll-up: VEVYE (cyclosporine 0.1% dry eye) $89M (+216%) + IHEEZO (chloroprocaine ocular anesthetic) $81M (+65%) + TRIESENCE + Iyuzeh + Vevye","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":37.49,"netCashLocal":-208.5,"cashPS":-5.5615,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.67,"bear":17.72,"base":38.91,"bull":70.07,"psychedelic_bull":115.53},"weightedTP":45.74,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.surface","ophthalmology.lens.cataract_surgery","ophthalmology.lens","ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","ophthalmology.uveitis"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.calcineurin_cyclosporine","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.ion_channel.nav_local_amide","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.corticosteroid_triamcinolone","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_a_midazolam"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":122},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":61},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":51},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens.cataract_surgery","purity":27},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":26},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":125},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":63},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":52},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":26},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens.cataract_surgery","purity":22},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":93},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens.cataract_surgery","purity":71},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":47},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens","purity":36},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":35},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":18}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":9.054,"totalWTD":8.8365},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"vevye","indication":"vev_dry","title":"FY26 $350-365M guide + EBITDA $80-100M","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"HROW FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":45.7407789,"successTP":45.7407789,"baseTP":45.7407789,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Early 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-28","asset":"triesence","indication":"tri_inflam","title":"TRIESENCE Ph3 post-cataract inflammation topline (full enrolment 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001360214/000149315226036865/ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":45.7407789,"successTP":45.7407789,"baseTP":45.7407789,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"melt_300","indication":"melt_sed","title":"MELT-300 + MELT-210 NDA filings","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"HROW pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":43.8664194,"successTP":47.9910296,"baseTP":45.7407789,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":220,"lenses":{"comparable":10.12,"eeRel":0.1009}},"HRTX":{"name":"Heron Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Acute care + oncology supportive care | Q2'26 rev $37.7M; ZYNRELEF +35% YoY, APONVIE +74% | FY26 GUIDANCE WITHDRAWN Aug 10 2026 on Jun'26 CINVANTI patent loss | LEVERED: $142.6M debt vs $42.7M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":189.85,"netCashLocal":-99.9,"cashPS":-0.5262,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.02,"bear":0.14,"base":0.58,"bull":1.47,"psychedelic_bull":2.96},"weightedTP":0.52,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.supportive_care.cinv","oncology","oncology.supportive_care","oncology.supportive_care.ponv","cns.pain.acute","cns","cns.pain"],"modalities":["small_molecule.combination.cinv_antiemetic","small_molecule","small_molecule.combination","small_molecule.combination.ponv_antiemetic","formulation_modifier.depot.local_anesthetic_extended","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.depot"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":153},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.cinv","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.ponv","purity":9}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":178},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.cinv","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.ponv","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.ponv","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.cinv","purity":67},{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":54},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":27}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":544,"totalTAM":8.2785,"totalWTD":1.28499},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 11 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-05-11","asset":"cinvanti_sustol","indication":"cinv_franchise","title":"RESOLVED: Heron Q1 2026 earnings — first read on FY26 guide trajectory + cash burn -- REPORTED May 11 2026","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Heron PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-11 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":0.516346879,"successTP":0.516346879,"baseTP":0.516346879,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 10 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"cinvanti_sustol","indication":"cinv_franchise","title":"REPORTED: FY26 GUIDANCE WITHDRAWN Aug 10 2026 -- adverse June 2026 court decision on the CINVANTI patents, generic-entry timing uncertain, commercial spend plan changed; prior $173-183M net product sales + Adj-EBITDA guide is no longer reliable","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":50,"_note":"SURPRISE -- no pre-declared catalyst sized this, so only a bounded move was applied: base cinvanti_sustol pos 40->28 and apr 45->33 (-12 pts). Recommended full value pending user review is roughly pos 20 / apr 25 in base, which is where a franchise facing near-term generic entry with no company guidance belongs; the remaining gap is deliberately left for manual sign-off. Q2 2026 itself was fine on the growth assets: total net revenue $37.7M (+9% QoQ), ZYNRELEF $11.1M (+35% YoY), APONVIE $4.2M (+74% YoY) -- the damage is concentrated in CINVANTI, which is the largest revenue line ($105.3M FY25 oncology bucket).","_source":"Heron Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-10 (globenewswire 3341780; ir.herontx.com) + Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-17","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":0.516346879,"successTP":0.516346879,"baseTP":0.516346879,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"zynrelef","indication":"zynrelef_postsurgical","title":"Zynrelef + Aponvie 2026 sales trajectory; cash break-even read","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Heron FY25 PR + 2026 guide","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.516346879,"successTP":0.516346879,"baseTP":0.516346879,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Dec 22 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-12-22","asset":"cinvanti_sustol","indication":"cinv_franchise","title":"Nasdaq USD 1.00 minimum-bid compliance deadline (notice Jun 25 2026; second 180-day period possible) -- reverse split / delisting risk","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Heron 8-K 2026-06-25 (Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a)(2) notice)","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.516346879,"successTP":0.516346879,"baseTP":0.516346879,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":155,"lenses":{"comparable":1.73}},"HYPE3":{"name":"Hypera S.A.","subtitle":"Brazil's largest branded pharma: prescription Rx (Cardio/CNS/Respiratory) + Consumer Health (gastro/pain/sun) + Similar/Generic + Skincare + Institutional","currency":"BRL","country":"BR","region":"AMERICAS.LATAM","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":704,"netCashLocal":-6300,"cashPS":-8.9489,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.78,"bear":9.92,"base":24.29,"bull":44.95,"psychedelic_bull":85.37},"weightedTP":29.18,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products","_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","dermatology.aesthetics.filler","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.brazil_branded_rx","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.consumer.diversified","_diversified.consumer","_diversified.generics.brazil_outpatient","_diversified.generics","aesthetic_or_other.skincare.brazil_premium","aesthetic_or_other","aesthetic_or_other.skincare","_diversified.generics.institutional_brazil","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.semaglutide","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":165},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":83},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":165},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":83},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":193},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":97},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.filler","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":174.458,"totalWTD":174.458},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 29 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-29","asset":"hype_semaglutide","indication":"hype_sema_obesity","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-29: ANVISA APPROVED Hypera's injectable semaglutide SEMAVY (Mantecorp line; initial label adult type 2 diabetes), bioequivalent to the reference biologic -- launch guided for Sep 2026 pending CMED pricing; inventory build may hit Q3 working capital","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Hypera PR (hypera.com.br/noticias/marketing/hypera-pharma-lanca-semavy-e-passa-a-atuar-no-mercado-de-glp-1-no-brasil); ANVISA approval Jul 29 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Regulatory step cleared as the config predicted. No assumption change: hype_semaglutide is already modelled at pos/apr 100 (commercial treatment) with all uncertainty carried in pen, so the pre-declared success_pos/apr (80/90) were never the live levers. Brazilian GLP-1 analogue market is ~R$15.6B growing 111% YoY -- upside sits in pen, flagged rather than auto-moved.","failTP":29.1771449,"successTP":29.1771449,"baseTP":29.1771449,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-11","asset":"hype_rx_franchise","indication":"hype_rx_div","title":"REPORTED: Hypera Q2 2026 -- net revenue R$2.34B (+8.5%, ~5% volume growth), gross margin 61.8% (+1.7pp YoY), EBITDA R$755M at a 32.3% margin, net income +15%; capex stays high through 2026 with meaningful reduction only after 2027","type":"other","severity":"medium","failTP":29.1771449,"successTP":29.1771449,"baseTP":29.1771449,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"hype_rx_franchise","indication":"hype_rx_div","title":"FY26 R$ revenue recovery + working capital normalization","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"HYPE3 Q1 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":29.1771449,"successTP":29.1771449,"baseTP":29.1771449,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":7200,"lenses":{"comparable":22.08,"eeRel":1.1899,"peRel":3.278}},"IBRX":{"name":"ImmunityBio, Inc.","subtitle":"ANKTIVA IL-15 superagonist, BCG-unresponsive NMIBC CIS (FDA Apr'24) | Q2'26 net product rev $50.7M (+92% y/y, 8th straight up-quarter); 1H'26 $94.8M; papillary PDUFA Jan 6 '27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1189.7,"netCashLocal":96.1,"cashPS":0.0808,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.75,"bear":1.22,"base":1.57,"bull":2.23,"psychedelic_bull":3.02},"weightedTP":1.71,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il15_superagonist","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":21}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":23}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":19}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":23,"totalTAM":40.4765,"totalWTD":33.0286375},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"anktiva","indication":"nmibc_cis","title":"ANKTIVA NMIBC CIS FY26 revenue ramp","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"IBRX quarterly","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.53850445,"successTP":1.94936694,"baseTP":1.71363877,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"Jan 6, 2027","dateSort":"2027-01-06","asset":"anktiva","indication":"nmibc_papillary","title":"ANKTIVA papillary NMIBC sBLA FDA decision (PDUFA Jan 6, 2027)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"IBRX Mar 2026 sBLA filing","_confidence":"low","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"FDA accepted ImmunityBio's supplemental BLA for ANKTIVA plus BCG in BCG-unresponsive NMIBC with papillary disease, setting PDUFA date for January 6, 2027.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":1.01184356,"successTP":1.88304318,"baseTP":1.71363877,"swingPct":26,"successMove":5,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":113,"lenses":{"comparable":2.11}},"IDIA":{"name":"Idorsia Pharmaceuticals Ltd.","subtitle":"Swiss specialty post-CB restructuring (CHF 350M debt) | Tryvio aprocitentan resistant hypertension (FDA Mar 2024); Quviviq daridorexant insomnia | Selatogrel + cenerimod restructured","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":250,"netCashLocal":-1225,"cashPS":-4.9,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0.5,"bull":6.15,"psychedelic_bull":17.28},"weightedTP":2.07,"meta":{"areas":["cns.sleep.insomnia","cns","cns.sleep","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.ischemic.myocardial_infarction","cardio_metabolic.ischemic","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.orexin_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.endothelin_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr.p2y12_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr.s1p1_agonist","small_molecule.enzyme.gcs_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":71},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":64},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":35},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":32},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.myocardial_infarction","purity":27},{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":14},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":9},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":9}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":96},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":48},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":40},{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.myocardial_infarction","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":17},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":10},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.sleep.insomnia","purity":103},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":52},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":35},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.myocardial_infarction","purity":24},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":12},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":9}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":9,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":49,"totalTAM":35.0215,"totalWTD":23.51446},"catalysts":[{"date":"Feb 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-26","asset":"selatogrel","indication":"ami_self","title":"REPORTED: Idorsia-Viatris collaboration AMENDED (Feb 2026) -- Idorsia's 2025 development-cost contribution cut by $100M in exchange for giving up $250M of future regulatory and sales milestones, plus an expansion of Viatris territorial rights for cenerimod. The Mar 2024 deal ($350M upfront, milestones, mid-single to low-double-digit royalties) remains ACTIVE: selatogrel and cenerimod are Viatris-led, NOT back in Idorsia's hands","type":"partnership","severity":"high","failTP":1.63500122,"successTP":2.18461622,"baseTP":2.07048468,"swingPct":11,"successMove":2,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":47,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"quviviq","indication":"insomnia","title":"Quviviq EU sales tracking toward CHF 200M+ FY26 guide; commercial profitability","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Idorsia FY25 results","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.07048468,"successTP":2.07048468,"baseTP":2.07048468,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tryvio","indication":"resistant_htn","title":"Tryvio/Jeraygo aprocitentan co-promotion partnership + SPV financing (SLIPPED from Q3 2026: Jul 30 2026 SPV received a financing offer, terms not yet binding, partner talks ongoing)","type":"partnership","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.idorsia.com/investors/news-and-events/media-releases/media-release-details?id=3673709","_confidence":"medium","_note":"Slipped: no deal signed. Per Idorsia Q1 2026 update (Apr 28 2026), TRYVIO/JERAYGO partnering discussions remain ongoing with several parties; a late-2024 exclusivity with an undisclosed party lapsed. Date rolled to H2 2026; remains unresolved binary.","failTP":2.07048468,"successTP":2.07048468,"baseTP":2.07048468,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"lucerastat","indication":"fabry","title":"Lucerastat pivotal kidney-biopsy study start in Fabry (guided Q3 2026 initiation; NCT07778667 registered, not yet recruiting as of Aug 2026)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Idorsia Feb 2026 disclosure","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.75874434,"successTP":2.47713101,"baseTP":2.07048468,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"End 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"selatogrel","indication":"ami_self","title":"Selatogrel SOS-AMI Ph3 ENROLMENT COMPLETION guided end-2026 (Viatris partnership; SPA + Fast Track)","type":"milestone","severity":"medium","failTP":1.63500122,"successTP":2.18461622,"baseTP":2.07048468,"swingPct":8,"successMove":2,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":47,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cenerimod","indication":"sle","title":"Cenerimod OPUS-1 + OPUS-2 Ph3 SLE topline -- BOTH studies guided to read out in H1 2027 (Viatris partnership)","type":"phase3_data","severity":"high","failTP":1.44855693,"successTP":2.23263258,"baseTP":2.07048468,"swingPct":38,"successMove":8,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12}],"salesM2025":163,"lenses":{"comparable":0.09},"readouts":[{"a":"cenerimod","ind":"sle","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":5.12755177,"lo":-15,"hi":45.2386573,"pBeatBest":0.02715,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"IDYA":{"name":"IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.","subtitle":"Precision oncology SL platform | Darovasertib+crizotinib OptimUM-02 POSITIVE Apr'26 (HLA-A2-neg MUM, mPFS 6.9 vs 3.1mo) -> NDA RTOR May'26 | IDE397/161/275/849 pipeline","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":96.49,"netCashLocal":1242.9,"cashPS":12.8811,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.46,"bear":13.88,"base":18.18,"bull":22.25,"psychedelic_bull":26.55},"weightedTP":19.06,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","oncology","oncology.eye","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.lung.sclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.pkc","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.mat2a","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.enzyme.parg_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme.werner_helicase","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.dll3","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":127},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.brca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":18,"rarePurityWtd":37,"optionality":323,"totalTAM":18.09734,"totalWTD":4.28069627},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"ide849","indication":"ide849_sclc","title":"IDE849 DLL3 TOP1 ADC Ph1 SCLC/NEC first US data","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://ir.ideayabio.com/2026-02-25-IDEAYA-Biosciences-Announces-First-Patient-In-for-Phase-1-Trial-of-IDE034","_confidence":"medium","failTP":18.1023313,"successTP":20.0710671,"baseTP":19.0550062,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"ide397","indication":"ide397_urothelial","title":"IDE397 + Trodelvy MTAP-del urothelial Ph1/2 expansion data","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ideaya-biosciences-announces-positive-data-from-phase-12-combination-trial-of-ide397-a-potential-first-in-class-mat2a-inhibitor-and-trodelvy-in-mtap-deletion-urothelial-cancer-302548584.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.6906708,"successTP":19.9002423,"baseTP":19.0550062,"swingPct":6,"successMove":4,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":41,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"ide275","indication":"ide275_msih","title":"IDE275 / GSK959 Werner helicase Ph1 first clinical data (MSI-H tumors)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ideaya-biosciences-announces-ind-clearance-for-werner-helicase-development-candidate-ide275-gsk959-for-a-phase-1-study-in-msi-high-solid-tumors-302287911.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":18.9737103,"successTP":19.1913665,"baseTP":19.0550062,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"darovasertib","indication":"daro_mum","title":"Darovasertib NDA submission COMPLETION under FDA RTOR (rolling initiated May 2026; company guides completion in H2 2026) for 1L HLA-A*02:01-negative metastatic uveal melanoma accelerated approval","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":78,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"IDEAYA Q2 2026 PR (2026-08-04)","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://media.ideayabio.com/2026-08-04-IDEAYA-Biosciences-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update","failTP":17.9201169,"successTP":19.8953867,"baseTP":19.0550062,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":79,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ide849","indication":"ide849_sclc","title":"IDE849 + IDE161 Ph1 combo initial data (DLL3 ADC + PARG inhibitor, FPI Mar 30 2026)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://media.ideayabio.com/2026-03-30-IDEAYA-Biosciences-Announces-First-Patient-In-IDE849-IDE161-Phase-1-Trial","_confidence":"medium","failTP":18.1722094,"successTP":20.5578058,"baseTP":19.0550062,"swingPct":9,"successMove":6,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ide849","indication":"ide849_sclc","title":"IDE849 (DLL3 TOP1 ADC) REGISTRATIONAL trial initiation in DLL3-positive solid tumours -- guided by year-end 2026; updated Hengrui-sponsored Ph1 SCLC/NEC data presented at ESMO 2026","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"IDEAYA Q2 2026 PR (2026-08-04); ESMO 2026 presentations PR (2026-07-17)","_sourceUrl":"https://media.ideayabio.com/2026-08-04-IDEAYA-Biosciences-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Registrational-trial initiation is a process milestone; fail/success left to the caller since the indication id is validated below before writing","failTP":17.9150534,"successTP":18.2468988,"baseTP":19.0550062,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-15","asset":"darovasertib","indication":"daro_mum","title":"Darovasertib HLA-A2-neg MUM PDUFA decision (RTOR-accelerated)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.targetedonc.com/view/darovasertib-crizotinib-improves-pfs-in-metastatic-uveal-melanoma","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.2159819,"successTP":19.9239081,"baseTP":19.0550062,"swingPct":20,"successMove":5,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":19.37},"readouts":[{"a":"ide397","ind":"ide397_urothelial","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","endpoint":"mos_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":20.695104,"lo":7.79774222,"hi":34.956845,"pBeatBest":0.0719,"bestDrug":"enfortumab vedotin + pembrolizumab","bestValue":31.5}]},"IFRX":{"name":"InflaRx N.V.","subtitle":"Izicopan (INF-904) oral C5aR antagonist Ph2a complete (AAV + renal POC) -- Ph2b 2027 | GOHIBIC vilobelimab COVID ARDS scaled down; PG Ph3 FUTILITY May 25 | Cash ~$50M","currency":"USD","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":147.29,"netCashLocal":185.3,"cashPS":1.2581,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.38,"bear":1.56,"base":1.78,"bull":2.02,"psychedelic_bull":2.23},"weightedTP":1.7,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pyoderma_gangrenosum","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","immunology.autoimmune.anca_vasculitis","immunology","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.c5a_inhibitor","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.gpcr.c5ar_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":124},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.anca_vasculitis","purity":63},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":62},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":32},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pyoderma_gangrenosum","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":159},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":80},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.anca_vasculitis","purity":25},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pyoderma_gangrenosum","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":143},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":72},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.anca_vasculitis","purity":51},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pyoderma_gangrenosum","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":28,"totalTAM":10.13,"totalWTD":7.9151},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"izicopan","indication":"izi_aav","title":"Izicopan full Ph2a data at scientific meeting (AAV) -- CAUTION: Q2 2026 PR describes AAV Ph2 as in planning; only Oct 2026 event found is a preclinical Kidney Week poster (Oct 22) -- likely phantom, verify at Oct 8 Capital Markets Day","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"high","failTP":1.55101035,"successTP":1.75836162,"baseTP":1.70237378,"swingPct":12,"successMove":3,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"vilobelimab","indication":"vilo_pg","title":"Vilobelimab PG FDA meeting on path forward (partner-only)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":1.69157496,"successTP":1.69449273,"baseTP":1.70237378,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-30","asset":"izicopan","indication":"izi_aav","title":"Izicopan Ph2b AAV initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.54400367,"successTP":1.56552629,"baseTP":1.70237378,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":2,"lenses":{"comparable":1.67}},"IKT":{"name":"Inhibikase Therapeutics","subtitle":"IKT-001 (imatinib prodrug) PAH Ph3 IMPROVE-PAH: 46 sites/26 countries Sep'26, ODD Jul'26; Part A PVR mid-'28, Part B 6MWD mid-'29; risvodetinib licensed to ABLi; cash ~$373M PF w/ ITM warrants","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":313.75,"netCashLocal":373.2,"cashPS":1.1895,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.36,"bear":0.82,"base":0.92,"bull":1.03,"psychedelic_bull":1.15},"weightedTP":0.85,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl_pdgfr","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.c_abl"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":104},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":96},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":52},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":48}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":194},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":97},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":199},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":380,"totalTAM":14.9375,"totalWTD":3.11155},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"ikt001","indication":"ikt001_pah","title":"IKT-001 IMPROVE-PAH Ph3 enrollment ramp -- 46 sites / 26 countries live Sep'26, expanding toward 180 sites","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1750149/000119312526385293/d152999dex991.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.794513927,"successTP":0.904278728,"baseTP":0.854977631,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ikt001","indication":"ikt001_pah","title":"IKT-001 IMPROVE-PAH Ph3 interim SAFETY readout (n=50, 12-week titration)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":58,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1750149/000119312526385293/d152999dex991.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.775903193,"successTP":0.898636835,"baseTP":0.854977631,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Mid 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"ikt001","indication":"ikt001_pah","title":"IKT-001 IMPROVE-PAH Ph3 Part A efficacy topline (PVR at Wk24, n=140) -- company guidance mid-2028","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1750149/000119312526385293/d152999dex991.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.738511588,"successTP":0.928478795,"baseTP":0.854977631,"swingPct":23,"successMove":9,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Mid 2029","dateSort":"2029-06-30","asset":"ikt001","indication":"ikt001_pah","title":"IKT-001 IMPROVE-PAH Ph3 Part B topline (6MWD at Wk24, n=346)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1750149/000119312526385293/d152999dex991.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.733153984,"successTP":0.944390142,"baseTP":0.854977631,"swingPct":24,"successMove":10,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","ratioPct":120}]},"lenses":{"comparable":0.84},"readouts":[{"a":"ikt001","ind":"ikt001_pah","ds":"2028-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","endpoint":"six_mwd_change_m","unit":"m","src":"class","med":15.1262619,"lo":-12.3836315,"hi":52.4905064,"pBeatBest":0.1093,"bestDrug":"sotatercept","bestValue":40.8},{"a":"ikt001","ind":"ikt001_pah","ds":"2029-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","endpoint":"six_mwd_change_m","unit":"m","src":"class","med":14.93886,"lo":-12.3162121,"hi":52.5148123,"pBeatBest":0.11015,"bestDrug":"sotatercept","bestValue":40.8}]},"IMCR":{"name":"Immunocore Holdings PLC","subtitle":"KIMMTRAK (tebentafusp) gp100 ImmTAC bispecific - mUM (FDA 2022) + 2L melanoma TEBE-AM Ph3 + adjuvant uveal | Brenetafusp PRAME-A02 1L cutaneous melanoma Ph3 + ovarian/NSCLC","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":50.7,"netCashLocal":486,"cashPS":9.5858,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.01,"bear":16.73,"base":34.92,"bull":50.49,"psychedelic_bull":54.69},"weightedTP":35.83,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","oncology","oncology.eye","oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.immtac_tcr_cd3","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":80},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":12}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":168},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":32,"rarePurityWtd":40,"optionality":55,"totalTAM":7.4485,"totalWTD":4.81750625},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"brenetafusp","indication":"brene_ov","title":"PRAME ovarian + NSCLC Ph1/2 data; HIV functional cure data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"IMCR pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":34.9179034,"successTP":36.3515735,"baseTP":35.8298456,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"~YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kimmtrak","indication":"kim_2l_cut","title":"TEBE-AM Ph3 2L cutaneous melanoma OS topline (key binary) -- target enrolment of 540 reached Sep 14 2026; topline guided ~year-end 2026 (rolled from Q3)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"IMCR pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":35.8298456,"successTP":35.8298456,"baseTP":35.8298456,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":400,"lenses":{"comparable":37.73},"readouts":[{"a":"kimmtrak","ind":"kim_2l_cut","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":13.3682427,"lo":0,"hi":39.624477,"pBeatBest":0.08925,"bestDrug":"lifileucel (TIL)","bestValue":31.4},{"a":"brenetafusp","ind":"brene_ov","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":21.0725893,"lo":0,"hi":45.4452435,"pBeatBest":0.30605,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3}]},"IMMP":{"name":"Immutep Limited","subtitle":"LAG-3 platform: efti soluble LAG-3 Fc (APC activator) post-TACTI-004 Ph3 NSCLC fail Mar26; HNSCC TACTI-003 Cohort B 2027 + STS EFTISARC-NEO ODD + mBC AIPAC-003; IMP761 LAG-3 agonist Ph1 autoimm","currency":"USD","country":"AU","region":"OCEANIA","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":145.6,"netCashLocal":72,"cashPS":0.4945,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.26,"bear":0.54,"base":1.6,"bull":3.17,"psychedelic_bull":4.99},"weightedTP":1.33,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.sarcoma.sts","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.lag3_fc","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_lag3_agonist","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":53},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":41},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":63},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":31},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":108},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1404,"totalTAM":59.651,"totalWTD":3.9673081},"catalysts":[{"date":"11 Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-11","asset":"eftilagimod","indication":"efti_nsclc_disc","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-11: TACTI-004 root-cause analysis — subtle 2,000L vs 200L efti manufacturing differences (incl N-glycan) implicated; new 200L run contracted; NSCLC not pursued, focus HNSCC + STS, next trials 2H CY27","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/11/3360296/0/en/immutep-outlines-focused-development-strategy-for-eftilagimod-alfa-efti.html","failTP":1.32692481,"successTP":1.327326,"baseTP":1.32732405,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":1,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"imp761","indication":"imp761_autoimm","title":"IMP761 Ph1 MAD completion (LAG-3 agonist autoimmune)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.31087828,"successTP":1.34583907,"baseTP":1.32732405,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-26","asset":"eftilagimod","indication":"efti_hnscc","title":"Nasdaq min bid compliance deadline (180d cure period; reverse split risk)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.678055856,"successTP":1.20618604,"baseTP":1.32732405,"swingPct":20,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"eftilagimod","indication":"efti_hnscc","title":"TACTI-003 Cohort B HNSCC updated data (PD-L1 CPS<1 + KEYTRUDA combo)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.722899576,"successTP":2.10213141,"baseTP":1.32732405,"swingPct":104,"successMove":58,"failMove":-46,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"eftilagimod","indication":"efti_mbc","title":"AIPAC-003 randomized Ph2 mBC efficacy readout","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.21020763,"successTP":1.45737249,"baseTP":1.32732405,"swingPct":19,"successMove":10,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"eftilagimod","indication":"efti_hnscc","title":"Partnership / Ph3 HNSCC initiation decision (post-TACTI-004 strategic review)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":0.678055856,"successTP":1.20618604,"baseTP":1.32732405,"swingPct":16,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.55},"readouts":[{"a":"imp761","ind":"imp761_autoimm","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.2314816,"lo":-15,"hi":56.7374448,"pBeatBest":0.08095,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"IMMX":{"name":"Immix Biopharma, Inc.","subtitle":"NXC-201 BCMA CAR-T in R/R AL amyloidosis (BTD Jan'26) · NEXICART-2 n=45: 89% CR, all pts CR or MRD-neg (Sep'26) · final readout + BLA mid-2027 · ~$328M cash est.","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":85.3,"netCashLocal":328.3,"cashPS":3.8488,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.69,"bear":3.36,"base":5,"bull":6.04,"psychedelic_bull":6.81},"weightedTP":5.03,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.plasma_cell.al_amyloidosis","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.sarcoma.sts","oncology.sarcoma"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_bcma","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","small_molecule.transcription_factor.stat3_nfkb","small_molecule","small_molecule.transcription_factor"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.al_amyloidosis","purity":83},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":80},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":20}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.al_amyloidosis","purity":174},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.al_amyloidosis","purity":199},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":62,"rarePurityWtd":88,"optionality":226,"totalTAM":10.3556,"totalWTD":3.179568},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"nxc201","indication":"nxc201_al","title":"REPORTED Sep 29 2026: NEXICART-2 n=45 interim HIT -- 89% CR (40/45), remaining 4 MRD-neg, no relapses (8-K)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873835/000149315226044761/ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.41894126,"successTP":5.54671761,"baseTP":5.02900309,"swingPct":42,"successMove":10,"failMove":-32,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":40},{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"nxc201","indication":"nxc201_al","title":"NEXICART-2 dataset at ASH 2026 (NOT confirmed by company as of Sep 29 2026; final readout guided mid-2027)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://immixbio.com/","_confidence":"low","failTP":3.53421687,"successTP":5.61371108,"baseTP":5.02900309,"swingPct":36,"successMove":10,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":34},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"nxc201","indication":"nxc201_al","title":"NEXICART-2 final readout (BLA-enabling) — CR maintenance + organ response durability (slipped from Q1'27; company guides mid-2027)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://immixbio.com/","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.18048447,"successTP":5.80463644,"baseTP":5.02900309,"swingPct":52,"successMove":15,"failMove":-37,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":40},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-31","asset":"nxc201","indication":"nxc201_al","title":"NXC-201 BLA submission for R/R AL amyloidosis (company guides mid-2027, Sep 29 2026)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://immixbio.com/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.15950005,"successTP":5.87221731,"baseTP":5.02900309,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.57}},"IMNM":{"name":"Immunome","subtitle":"Varegacestat desmoid NDA ACCEPTED Jul 8'26 (PDUFA Apr 28 2027); Ph3 RINGSIDE HR=0.16, 84% PFS; EU MAA YE'26; IM-1021 ROR1 ADC Ph1 lymphoma; IM-1617 ADC IND Apr'26; cash $582.7M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":118,"netCashLocal":500,"cashPS":4.2373,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.75,"bear":7.14,"base":9.19,"bull":10.77,"psychedelic_bull":11.84},"weightedTP":9.02,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","oncology","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.gamma_secretase","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.ror1","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":47}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":163},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":18}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":197},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":98},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":116,"totalTAM":2.25565,"totalWTD":1.04584497},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"im1021","indication":"im1021_lymphoma","title":"IM-1021 ROR1 ADC Ph1 lymphoma data update","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260512068166/en/Immunome-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update","_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.9467276,"successTP":9.08609605,"baseTP":9.02419412,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":33,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"varegacestat","indication":"vare_desmoid","title":"Varegacestat EU MAA submission","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260512068166/en/Immunome-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.73499674,"successTP":10.0821514,"baseTP":9.02419412,"swingPct":13,"successMove":6,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"Apr 28, 2027 (PDUFA)","dateSort":"2027-04-28","asset":"varegacestat","indication":"vare_desmoid","title":"Varegacestat FDA PDUFA decision (NDA accepted Jul 8 2026; PDUFA Apr 28 2027)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://investors.immunome.com/immunome-announces-u-s-fda-acceptance-of-new-drug-application-for-varegacestat-for-the-treatment-of-adults-with-desmoid-tumors/","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.89589531,"successTP":10.335649,"baseTP":9.02419412,"swingPct":61,"successMove":15,"failMove":-46,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":55}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":36,"ceilPct":35,"position":"fast_follower","asset":"varegacestat","ind":"vare_desmoid","area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","somB":0.4,"tamB":1.1}},"lenses":{"comparable":9.04},"readouts":[{"a":"im1021","ind":"im1021_lymphoma","ds":"2026-10-31","area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":53.5600788,"lo":16.5015752,"hi":87.571842,"pBeatBest":0.2947,"bestDrug":"epcoritamab","bestValue":63}]},"IMTX":{"name":"Immatics N.V.","subtitle":"Anzu-cel (PRAME TCR-T) SUPRAME Ph3 2L melanoma -- randomisations complete by YE'26, topline PFS H1'27, BLA 2027 | IMA402/IMA401 TCER bispecifics | $448.2M cash into 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":153.96,"netCashLocal":589,"cashPS":3.8257,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.81,"bear":1.61,"base":2.68,"bull":3.84,"psychedelic_bull":4.89},"weightedTP":2.71,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","oncology.eye","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.tcr_t_prame","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.tcr_t_prame_cd8","biologic.antibody.bispecific.prame_cd3_tcer","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.magea_cd3_tcer"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":9}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":20}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.eye.uveal_melanoma","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.eye","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":8}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":51,"rarePurityWtd":42,"optionality":690,"totalTAM":13.4855,"totalWTD":1.70723479},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-30","asset":"anzu_cel_gen2","indication":"ovarian","title":"REPORTED: ASCO 2026 (May 30 2026): IMA203CD8 GEN2 ovarian/PRAME+ solid tumor Ph1a data -- 63% ORR (50% cORR, 4 CRs) in platinum-resistant ovarian; durability update at RP2D guided H2 2026","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":45,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Q4 2025 update guided to mid-year 2026 conference data (likely ASCO).","_outcome":"completed","_note":"OCCURRED + POSITIVE. Presented ASCO 2026 rapid-oral May 30 2026 (24 platinum-resistant ovarian pts, median 4 prior lines, Mar 30 2026 cutoff): 63% ORR, 50% confirmed ORR incl 4 CRs, longest ongoing response 12mo, manageable tolerability. De-risks GEN2 (CD8 co-receptor) construct in PRAME+ solid tumors. Soft positive Ph1a data-update; ovarian pos/apr nudged +<=3pt across scenarios (kept monotonic). Sources: Immatics PR 'Immatics Presents Clinical Activity of IMA203CD8 PRAME Cell Therapy in Hard-to-Treat Gynecologic Cancers at 2026 ASCO Annual Meeting' (globenewswire 2026-05-30); IMTX 6-K (stocktitan).","failTP":2.67782917,"successTP":2.72907563,"baseTP":2.7132902,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":24,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-23","asset":"ima402","indication":"melanoma_402","title":"IMA402 RP2D + Ph1 melanoma/ovarian dose-expansion update -- SLIPPED to ESMO 2026 (Oct 23-27; Ph1b data at RP2D range)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Q4 2025 guidance: RP2D + dose-expansion data H2 2026.","failTP":2.66993121,"successTP":2.73907037,"baseTP":2.7132902,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"anzu_cel","indication":"melanoma_2l","title":"SUPRAME Ph3 required randomisations COMPLETE (guided by year-end 2026; topline PFS then H1 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"low","_rationale":"Event-driven interim; timing depends on enrollment + event accrual; data blinded until trial completion.","_source":"Immatics Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-18","failTP":2.50777323,"successTP":2.86158833,"baseTP":2.7132902,"swingPct":13,"successMove":5,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":67,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-28","asset":"anzu_cel","indication":"melanoma_2l","title":"SUPRAME Ph3 final analysis topline","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company-guided late 2026/early 2027 final analysis; primary value-driving readout.","failTP":2.38313855,"successTP":2.90811728,"baseTP":2.7132902,"swingPct":19,"successMove":7,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":67,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"anzu_cel","indication":"melanoma_2l","title":"Anzu-cel BLA submission to FDA","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company-guided BLA H1 2027 contingent on positive SUPRAME final.","failTP":2.38313855,"successTP":2.91911901,"baseTP":2.7132902,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":54,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.43},"readouts":[{"a":"anzu_cel_gen2","ind":"ovarian","ds":"2026-05-30","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":21.2119685,"lo":0,"hi":49.8271445,"pBeatBest":0.337,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3},{"a":"ima402","ind":"melanoma_402","ds":"2026-10-23","area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.0492507,"lo":0,"hi":46.0023553,"pBeatBest":0.1675,"bestDrug":"lifileucel (TIL)","bestValue":31.4},{"a":"anzu_cel","ind":"melanoma_2l","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":12.019534,"lo":0,"hi":39.2420322,"pBeatBest":0.08175,"bestDrug":"lifileucel (TIL)","bestValue":31.4},{"a":"anzu_cel","ind":"melanoma_2l","ds":"2027-02-28","area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":12.1995875,"lo":0,"hi":39.0086875,"pBeatBest":0.07755,"bestDrug":"lifileucel (TIL)","bestValue":31.4}]},"IMVT":{"name":"Immunovant, Inc.","subtitle":"FcRn platform | IMVT-1402 (next-gen subQ) Ph3 Graves + MG topline CY27, D2T RA update H2'26, CLE PoC H2'26 | batoclimab TED Ph3 FAILED Apr'26 | 64.65% ROIV | $797.8M cash Jun30'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":175.3,"netCashLocal":797.8,"cashPS":4.5511,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.59,"bear":14.31,"base":25.81,"bull":33.63,"psychedelic_bull":41.27},"weightedTP":25.22,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.thyroid.graves","endocrine","endocrine.thyroid","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","immunology.autoimmune","ophthalmology.orbit.ted","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.orbit"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_fcrn","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":81},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":42},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":40},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":38},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":34},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":26},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":11},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":122},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":32},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":8},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":164},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":82},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.cidp","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":11},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.graves","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":38,"rarePurityWtd":33,"optionality":114,"totalTAM":77.311,"totalWTD":36.0569328},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"imvt_1402","indication":"imvt_d2t_ra","title":"IMVT-1402 D2T RA potentially registrational programme UPDATE (H2 CY2026 guided; company has not guided a separate registrational topline date)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Immunovant PR 2026-08-06 (quarter ended Jun 30 2026)","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/06/3340114/0/en/immunovant-provides-corporate-updates-and-reports-financial-results-for-the-quarter-ended-june-30-2026.html","failTP":9.66622631,"successTP":31.483472,"baseTP":25.220608,"swingPct":87,"successMove":25,"failMove":-62,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":64},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"imvt_1402","indication":"imvt_graves","title":"IMVT-1402 Graves' disease Ph3 topline (registrational)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/IMVT/immunovant-provides-corporate-updates-and-reports-financial-results-ocebtior7pmx.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.7393481,"successTP":26.2272576,"baseTP":25.220608,"swingPct":10,"successMove":4,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":37.68},"readouts":[{"a":"imvt_1402","ind":"imvt_d2t_ra","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","endpoint":"acr20_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":60.539735,"lo":18.6149213,"hi":70.0194721,"pBeatBest":0.24555,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 15mg","bestValue":64}]},"INBX":{"name":"Inhibrx Biosciences","subtitle":"Post-Sanofi INBRX-101 sale: INBRX-106 OX40 1L HNSCC+pembro Ph2 PRIMARY ENDPOINT MET Sep8'26 (cORR 48.3% vs 26.5%, mPFS 9.6 vs 4.9mo); HPV+ expansion for accelerated approval; ozekibart PDUFA Apr 14'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":14.61,"netCashLocal":43.2,"cashPS":2.9569,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.76,"bear":18.33,"base":41.63,"bull":67.51,"psychedelic_bull":103.78},"weightedTP":40.69,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.sarcoma.bone","oncology.sarcoma"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ox40_hexavalent","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_dr5_hexavalent"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.bone","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":99},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":49},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.bone","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.bone","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":26}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":125,"totalTAM":15.9127,"totalWTD":7.0842825},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"inbrx106","indication":"inbrx106_hnscc","title":"RESOLVED (success): INBRX-106 hexavalent OX40 Ph2 1L HNSCC + pembro interim ORR -- 44.0% confirmed ORR vs 21.4% pembro alone (+22.6pt, CPS>=20, n=68), reported May 11 2026; Ph3 to start Q3'26","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/INBX/8-k-inhibrx-biosciences-inc-reports-material-event-12085ccc30de.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"INBRX-106 + pembro = 44.0% confirmed ORR vs 21.4% pembro alone (+22.6pt absolute) in 1L PD-L1-high (CPS>=20) HNSCC, n=68. Ph3 portion to start Q3 2026; PFS Q4 2026.","_outcomeSource":"https://inhibrxbiosciences.investorroom.com/2026-05-11-Inhibrx-Reports-Interim-Phase-2-Data-for-INBRX-106-in-First-Line-HNSCC-Initial-Results-Demonstrate-Potential-Costimulatory-Benefit-Over-PD-1-Monotherapy","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":24.6447195,"successTP":49.8596049,"baseTP":40.6902122,"swingPct":62,"successMove":23,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"Sep 8, 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"inbrx106","indication":"inbrx106_hnscc","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-08 (HIT): INBRX-106 hexavalent OX40 agonist + pembrolizumab MET the HexAgon Phase 2 primary endpoint (confirmed ORR) in 1L treatment-naive PD-L1 CPS>=20 metastatic/recurrent HNSCC -- cORR 48.3% vs 26.5% on pembrolizumab monotherapy, complete responses 13.8% vs 0%, median PFS 9.6 vs 4.9 months, 6-month PFS 72.4% vs 42.8%. HPV+ subgroup cORR 80.0% vs 33.3% with 30.0% CR and 90% 6-month PFS. TRAEs rash/fatigue/diarrhoea, predominantly low grade. Inhibrx will add ~50 HPV+ oropharyngeal patients to support potential accelerated approval, then FDA alignment and a confirmatory Phase 3","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/INBX/8-k-inhibrx-biosciences-inc-reports-material-event-12085ccc30de.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":25.2339566,"successTP":50.3309956,"baseTP":40.6902122,"swingPct":62,"successMove":24,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"ozekibart","indication":"ozeki_crc","title":"Ozekibart (INBRX-109) potential approval / partnership decision (ESMO 2026)","type":"partnership","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/INBX/8-k-inhibrx-biosciences-inc-reports-material-event-12085ccc30de.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":23.1962192,"successTP":62.5126899,"baseTP":40.6902122,"swingPct":39,"successMove":22,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Apr 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-14","asset":"ozekibart","indication":"ozeki_chondrosarcoma","title":"Ozekibart (INBRX-109) chondrosarcoma PDUFA decision (BLA accepted Jun 15 2026, no filing review issues; first systemic therapy)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":58,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/inhibrx-announces-u-s-fda-acceptance-of-bla-for-ozekibart-in-patients-with-conventional-chondrosarcoma","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"FDA accepted the ozekibart BLA in conventional chondrosarcoma Jun 15 2026 with no filing review issues; PDUFA goal date Apr 14 2027. Pivotal: 52% reduction in progression/death risk, mPFS 5.52 vs 2.66 mo. Would be first systemic therapy for chondrosarcoma + INBX's first commercial product.","failTP":28.0611759,"successTP":51.1880624,"baseTP":40.6902122,"swingPct":57,"successMove":26,"failMove":-31,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":19,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":44.87}},"INCY":{"name":"Incyte Corporation","subtitle":"JAK platform + heme/onc: Jakafi (Q2'26 $817M, +7%; LOE Dec'28) + Opzelura + Niktimvo + Monjuvi | Q2'26 total rev $1.67B (+38%) | Povorcitinib HS: EU approval late'26, US Q1'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":202.7,"netCashLocal":3253,"cashPS":16.0483,"tps":{"mega_bear":40.28,"bear":65.68,"base":98.3,"bull":148.18,"psychedelic_bull":200.01},"weightedTP":99.4,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","immunology.transplant.cgvhd","immunology","immunology.transplant","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.lymphoma.fl","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology.gi","oncology.leukemia.cml","oncology.leukemia","oncology.skin.merkel_cell","oncology.skin","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology.gynecologic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","hematology.hemostasis.vwd","hematology","hematology.hemostasis"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.jak1_jak2","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_csf1r","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd19","small_molecule.kinase.fgfr1_3","small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","small_molecule.kinase.jak1_selective","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_protein_s"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":45},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":39},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":21},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.merkel_cell","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":46},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":26},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":16},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.merkel_cell","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":39},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.vitiligo","purity":36},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":29},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.vwd","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.merkel_cell","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":46,"rarePurityWtd":51,"optionality":22,"totalTAM":104.3868,"totalWTD":85.6721904},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jan 2026","dateSort":"2026-01-05","asset":"monjuvi","indication":"dlbcl_rr","title":"REPORTED (2026-01-05, success): frontMIND Ph3: tafasitamab + lenalidomide + R-CHOP in 1L high-risk DLBCL met PFS (PFS HR 0.75, p=0.019; MRD-neg 81% vs 67%; sBLA 1L DLBCL filing 1H'26)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeNote":"RESOLVED: frontMIND pivotal Ph3 met PFS (HR ~0.75, ~25% reduction in progression/death; MRD-neg 81.3%, benefit across COO subtypes). Topline Jan 5 2026; detailed data EHA 2026 plenary Jun 11-14. Incyte to file sBLA 1H 2026 for 1L DLBCL — frontline label expansion beyond existing 2L+ R/R Monjuvi.","_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260105730167/en/","_confidence":"high","failTP":99.4044818,"successTP":99.4044818,"baseTP":99.4044818,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"povorcitinib","indication":"vitiligo_oral","title":"REPORTED: Povorcitinib STOP-V Phase 3 vitiligo topline POSITIVE (both STOP-V1/V2 met primary, May 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Announced ~May 5, 2026: both STOP-V1 and STOP-V2 met the primary endpoint (>=75% reduction in F-VASI at wk 52; STOP-V1 18.9% vs 6.8% placebo, P<.001), no new safety signals; supports a nonsegmental vitiligo NDA targeted early 2027. Modest absolute effect vs. Rinvoq -- no scenario TP change.","_source":"https://www.healio.com/news/dermatology/20260505/topline-results-povorcitinib-yields-vitiligo-repigmentation-up-to-1-year","_confidence":"high","failTP":73.294157,"successTP":120.833039,"baseTP":99.4044818,"swingPct":48,"successMove":22,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"povorcitinib","indication":"hs","title":"Povorcitinib (Povofortay) European Commission approval, HS after anti-TNF failure/ineligibility (CHMP positive Sep 17 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.ema.europa.eu/sl/node/286757","_confidence":"high","failTP":92.187821,"successTP":96.2683787,"baseTP":99.4044818,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"povorcitinib","indication":"prurigo_nodularis","title":"Povorcitinib STOP-PN Phase 3 prurigo nodularis topline","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://investor.incyte.com/static-files/f0037aa1-59bf-467c-a2cd-59fff2c6393c","_confidence":"high","failTP":98.649553,"successTP":100.096177,"baseTP":99.4044818,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"niktimvo","indication":"cgvhd","title":"Axatilimab + ruxolitinib Phase 2 newly diagnosed cGVHD combo topline -- ROLLED: guided H2 2026 (Q2 8-K)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://investor.incyte.com/news-releases/news-release-details/incyte-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial","_confidence":"medium","failTP":99.4044818,"successTP":99.4044818,"baseTP":99.4044818,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"povorcitinib","indication":"hs","title":"Povorcitinib HS US approval -- ROLLED from Sep'26: NDA accepted Q1'26; Incyte now guides US approval/launch Q1 2027 (EU approval/launch late 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_source":"https://investor.incyte.com/news-releases/news-release-details/incyte-announces-new-positive-54-week-late-breaking-data","_confidence":"high","failTP":92.187821,"successTP":96.2683787,"baseTP":99.4044818,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":96,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Dec 2028","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"jakafi","indication":"mf","title":"Jakafi LOE (composition-of-matter patent expiration; generic ruxolitinib 2029)","type":"loe","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.drugpatentwatch.com/p/tradename/JAKAFI","_confidence":"high","failTP":99.4044818,"successTP":99.4044818,"baseTP":99.4044818,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Early 2029","dateSort":"2029-03-31","asset":"latarcibart","indication":"latarcibart_vwd","title":"Latarcibart VIVID-6 Phase 3 topline (VWD monthly SC prophylaxis; ABR vs prior on-demand/prophylaxis period)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://investor.incyte.com/news-releases/news-release-details/incyte-completes-acquisition-vega-therapeutics-wholly-owned","_confidence":"high","failTP":96.3734202,"successTP":101.92564,"baseTP":99.4044818,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":4350,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":69,"ceilPct":65,"position":"commercial_incumbent","asset":"jakafi","ind":"mf","area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","somB":3.9,"tamB":5.6}},"lenses":{"comparable":107.58,"eeRel":1.3333,"peRel":1.4178}},"INDV":{"name":"Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (pro-forma incl. Supernus)","subtitle":"PRO-FORMA Indivior+Supernus (close guided Q4'26, 1.5401 INDV/SUPN, 56.5/43.5) | Sublocade OUD ~$700M + Qelbree/GOCOVRI/ZURZUVAE/ONAPGO CNS | $1.0B special div, $650M term loan","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":211.39,"netCashLocal":-606.7,"cashPS":-2.8701,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.05,"bear":17.94,"base":27.91,"bull":44.08,"psychedelic_bull":68.26},"weightedTP":27.62,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.substance_use","cns.psychiatry.adhd","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_partial_agonist_depot","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_partial_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr.orexin_antagonist","small_molecule.transporter.net_viloxazine","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.ion_channel.nmda_amantadine","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_a_modulator","small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_apomorphine","small_molecule.kinase.mtorc1_activator","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.acetylcholinesterase","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.transporter.stimulant_undisclosed"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":75},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":45},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":38},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":38},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":19},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":15},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":11},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":70},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":56},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":35},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":35},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":35},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":28},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":17},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":72},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":55},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use.opioid","purity":48},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.substance_use","purity":48},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":28},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":28},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":10},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":43,"totalTAM":79.945,"totalWTD":55.7198262},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"supn_820","indication":"mdd_820","title":"[SUPN] SPN-820 (NV-5138) ADJUNCTIVE Ph2b MDD topline (mTORC1 activator, 2400mg twice-weekly add-on) -- 2nd attempt after monotherapy TRD Ph2b FAILED Feb 2025 (MADRS Wk4 -12.3 vs -11.9 pbo, p=NS)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"SUPN Q1 2026 earnings (2026-05-05) -- program repositioned to adjunctive after monotherapy failure; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/18 monotherapy fail","_confidence":"medium","_note":"Monotherapy TRD Ph2b failed primary MADRS Wk4 endpoint Feb 18 2025. SPN-820 repositioned to a new ADJUNCTIVE Ph2b (2400mg intermittent twice-weekly). base pos trimmed 50->38 (bounded surprise move -- config had never encoded the monotherapy failure). Full re-rate of the SOTP pipeline bucket + adding SPN-817/SPN-443 flagged for owner.","failTP":27.4375249,"successTP":27.9216311,"baseTP":27.6185593,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"~Nov 2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-02","asset":"sublocade","indication":"oud_lai","title":"Indivior/Supernus all-stock merger CLOSE -- INDV issues 1.5401 shares per SUPN share (56.5% INDV / 43.5% SUPN pro-forma) + $1.0B one-time special cash dividend to INDV holders funded by $650M Citi term loan + cash; $125M annual cost synergies | Sep 16 2026: $8.13/sh special dividend declared (record Oct 30, paid ~Nov 6), conditional on close expected on/about Nov 2 2026; joint proxy filed Sep 11 (PR/8-K)","type":"ma_close","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.indivior.com/latest/category/financial-news/2026/supernus-pharmaceuticals-and-indivior-pharmaceuticals-to-merge-creating-a-diversified-cns-biopharmaceutical-leader-with-significant-scale (Aug 3 2026)","_confidence":"high","_note":"Merger announced Aug 3 2026 (surprise -- no pre-declared catalyst). Catalyst added for tracking only; NO valuation-structure edit made. sharesOut (+~89M new INDV shares), cash/debt (-$1.0B special dividend, +$650M term loan) and pro-forma scenario weights all change on close -- FLAGGED for owner, not auto-applied because they are contingent on stockholder + regulatory approval.","failTP":27.6185593,"successTP":27.6185593,"baseTP":27.6185593,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"indv_2000","indication":"oud_orexin","title":"INDV-2000 orexin-1 OUD Ph2 readout (3-mo dose-ranging post-buprenorphine withdrawal)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":82,"_source":"Indivior pipeline; first patient Jun 2024","_confidence":"low","failTP":27.560006,"successTP":27.6668475,"baseTP":27.6185593,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sublocade","indication":"oud_lai","title":"Sublocade vs Brixadi US LAI share dynamics (Brixadi crossed 30% YE25)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Camurus FY25 report; IQVIA tracking","_confidence":"high","failTP":27.6185593,"successTP":27.6185593,"baseTP":27.6185593,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"qelbree","indication":"adhd_qel","title":"[SUPN] FY26 revenue guide $840-870M; adj op earnings $140-170M","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"SUPN FY26 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":27.6185593,"successTP":27.6185593,"baseTP":27.6185593,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1724,"lenses":{"comparable":23.93,"eeRel":1.7922,"peRel":2.54}},"INSM":{"name":"Insmed Incorporated","subtitle":"Rare pulmonary | BRINSUPRI (brensocatib) FDA-approved Aug'25 NCFB -- Q2'26 $309M, FY26 guide $1.25-1.4B | Arikayce Q2'26 $116M | TPIP Ph3 PAH | peak est >$14B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":178,"netCashLocal":860,"cashPS":4.8315,"tps":{"mega_bear":32.84,"bear":50.7,"base":76.46,"bull":108.88,"psychedelic_bull":144.66},"weightedTP":80.64,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.suppurative.ntm_lung","respiratory","respiratory.suppurative","respiratory.suppurative.bronchiectasis_ncfb","respiratory.inflammatory.crswnp","respiratory.inflammatory","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antibacterial.aminoglycoside_liposomal","small_molecule","small_molecule.antibacterial","small_molecule.enzyme.dpp1_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.gpcr.prostacyclin_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.bronchiectasis_ncfb","purity":93},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative","purity":52},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.crswnp","purity":46},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":38},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":25},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":12},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.ntm_lung","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.bronchiectasis_ncfb","purity":118},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative","purity":66},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.crswnp","purity":31},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":30},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":15},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.ntm_lung","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.bronchiectasis_ncfb","purity":179},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative","purity":95},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.ntm_lung","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.crswnp","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":3},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":30,"rarePurityWtd":25,"optionality":27,"totalTAM":37.742,"totalWTD":29.819165},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"brensocatib","indication":"ncfb","title":"Brensocatib NCFB launch ramp Year-1 trajectory + payer coverage update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.insmed.com/investors/","_confidence":"high","failTP":39.2997777,"successTP":51.5875237,"baseTP":80.6404321,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-11,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tpip","indication":"pah","title":"TPIP-201 Ph2b PAH update + Ph3 design / start (head-to-head vs UTHR Tyvaso DPI dynamics; Ph3 readout 2027)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.insmed.com/investors/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":76.309355,"successTP":78.2359837,"baseTP":80.6404321,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":370,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","ratioPct":137},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","ratioPct":120}]},"lenses":{"comparable":125.4},"readouts":[{"a":"tpip","ind":"pah","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","endpoint":"six_mwd_change_m","unit":"m","src":"class","med":27.1640228,"lo":-6.19417763,"hi":58.9893909,"pBeatBest":0.20075,"bestDrug":"sotatercept","bestValue":40.8}]},"INVA":{"name":"Innoviva","subtitle":"Diversified specialty: GSK royalty Relvar/Breo/Anoro (Q2'26 $59.8M) + XACDURO/XERAVA/GIAPREZA/ZEVTERA (Q2'26 product $51.8M, +46%); Q2 total rev $119.6M; $261M 2.125% converts due 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":72.25,"netCashLocal":309.4,"cashPS":4.2824,"tps":{"mega_bear":25.29,"bear":33.69,"base":40.44,"bull":45.99,"psychedelic_bull":51.9},"weightedTP":40.88,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary"],"modalities":["small_molecule.combination.adrenergic_laba_combo","small_molecule","small_molecule.combination","small_molecule.antibacterial.beta_lactam_bli","small_molecule.antibacterial","small_molecule.antibacterial.tetracycline","peptide.hormone_analog.angiotensin_ii","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":141},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":71},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":41},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":21},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":18},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":9}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":141},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":71},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":41},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":21},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":18},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":9}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":90},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":83},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":45},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":41},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":14}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":34.8735,"totalWTD":34.8735},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY26 results","dateSort":"2027-02-28","asset":"xacduro","indication":"xacduro_habp","title":"Xacduro launch ramp + Zevtera scaling milestones -- tracked vs the >=$150M 2026 US product-sales target at FY26 results (Q2'26: Giapreza $21.0M, Xacduro $12.0M, Xerava $3.3M); Nuzolvence launch H2 2026","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://investor.inva.com/news-releases/news-release-details/innoviva-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-highlights","_confidence":"high","failTP":39.4531003,"successTP":42.2179123,"baseTP":40.8832585,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7}],"salesM2025":358.5,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","ratioPct":120}]},"lenses":{"comparable":28.9,"eeRel":1.75,"peRel":2.4541}},"IONS":{"name":"Ionis Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"TRYNGOLZA $108M Y1 · Olezarsen sHTG APPROVED Jun 2026 · ZANVASTRO (zilganersen) AxD APPROVED Sep 3 2026 · Donidalorsen launched · RNA platform leader","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":166.18,"netCashLocal":134.1,"cashPS":0.807,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.47,"bear":12.33,"base":27.5,"bull":50.58,"psychedelic_bull":70.04},"weightedTP":28.06,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","cns.neurodegeneration.alexander","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","cardio_metabolic.attr","cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","infectious_disease.viral.hbv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","cns.neurodegeneration.als"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.galnac","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.fus_targeting"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":68},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":48},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":44},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":32},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":29},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":22},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":21},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":4},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alexander","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":77},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":49},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":44},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":25},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":13},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":11},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":5},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alexander","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":112},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":56},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":40},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":22},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":20},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alexander","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":9},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":44,"rarePurityWtd":70,"optionality":164,"totalTAM":70.5625,"totalWTD":26.723185},"catalysts":[{"date":"June 30, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"commercial","indication":"tg","title":"REPORTED: TRYNGOLZA (olezarsen) sHTG label expansion FDA APPROVED Jun 24 2026 (ahead of Jun 30 PDUFA); reduces TG + acute pancreatitis risk","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tryngolzar-olezarsen-approved-fda-first-and-only-treatment","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA APPROVED TRYNGOLZA (olezarsen) for severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG, TG >=500 mg/dL) on Jun 24 2026, ahead of the Jun 30 2026 PDUFA. First and only therapy to reduce TG + risk of acute pancreatitis in sHTG; extends label from FCS to ~3M+ US sHTG pts; US availability July 2026. Value-driving blockbuster catalyst confirmed; base case already assumes pos/apr 100 for the TG franchise.","_rationale":"FDA set official PDUFA date of June 30, 2026 for olezarsen sHTG indication with priority review; approved early Jun 24 2026.","failTP":28.0586663,"successTP":28.0586663,"baseTP":28.0586663,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"July 9, 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-09","asset":"eplont","indication":"attr_cm","title":"REPORTED: CARDIO-TTRansform ATTR-CM Phase 3 MISSED primary endpoint (CV death + recurrent CV events, Wk140) Jul 9 2026 -- no benefit adding eplontersen on standard-of-care/stabilizer background; prespecified monotherapy subgroup HR 0.71 nominal; full data ESC Aug 2026; WAINUA remains ATTRv-PN only","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Ionis + AstraZeneca PRs 2026-07-09","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/update-cardio-ttransform-phase-3-trial-eplontersen-adults","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Confirmed H2 2026 readout for CARDIO-TTRansform trial in ATTR cardiomyopathy","_outcome":"fail","_resolvedDate":"2026-07-09","_outcomeRationale":"CARDIO-TTRansform missed primary composite (CV mortality + recurrent CV events) through Wk140 vs placebo (N=1432); no significant benefit adding eplontersen on SoC (57% on TTR stabilizer at baseline). Monotherapy subgroup (no stabilizer) HR 0.71 nominal only. Well tolerated. No ATTR-CM label expansion; WAINUA stays PN-only. fail_pos/fail_apr=0/0 NOT applied literally (combined PN+CM indication -- would erase commercial ATTRv-PN franchise); CM-optimistic scenarios trimmed toward PN-only reality instead. Full data at ESC Aug 2026.","failTP":28.0586663,"successTP":28.0586663,"baseTP":28.0586663,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"September 3, 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-03","asset":"zilgan","indication":"axd","title":"REPORTED: ZANVASTRO (zilganersen) FDA APPROVED Sep 3 2026 for Alexander disease (pediatric + adult), 19 days ahead of the Sep 22 PDUFA; Rare Pediatric Disease PRV granted","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ionis PR 2026-09-03","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zanvastrotm-zilganersen-approved-fda-first-and-only-disease","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Approved Sep 3 2026 (Ionis PR; STAT). Pivotal trial: walking speed stable on zilganersen vs 33% decline on control. Resolved to the approved encoding pos/apr 100/100 (catalyst pre-declared success_apr 100; success_pos 85 was a mis-specification -- an approved drug carries no residual technical risk, and the config's other approved rows, tg and attr_pn, are all 100/100).","failTP":26.2276495,"successTP":28.6937044,"baseTP":28.0586663,"swingPct":9,"successMove":2,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-04","asset":"pelac","indication":"lpa","title":"REPORTED: Lp(a)HORIZON Phase 3 CVOT MISSED primary endpoint (Sep 4, 2026) -- pelacarsen lowered Lp(a) but did not reduce CV events vs placebo (Novartis)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_note":"NOT YET OCCURRED as of Jun 24 2026. Novartis updated guidance to Phase 3 pelacarsen data in 1H 2026 with regulatory submissions in 2H 2026; no topline disclosed by late June 2026. Pushed timing to H2 2026 (data + submission window) pending readout. Source: Ionis statement on Novartis' updated timing (ir.ionis.com); enrollment of 8,323 pts completed 2023.","failTP":27.9995093,"successTP":28.8989288,"baseTP":28.0586663,"swingPct":3,"successMove":3,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-26","asset":"bepiro","indication":"hbv","title":"Bepirovirsen chronic hepatitis B PDUFA (GSK; priority review; B-Well 1+2 positive) -- Ionis royalty","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ionis Q1 2026 results; GSK","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and","_addedAt":"2026-07-06T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"FDA accepted bepirovirsen BLA for priority review; PDUFA Oct 26 2026; B-Well 1+2 pivotal positive; GSK-partnered, Ionis receives royalties","failTP":18.2080065,"successTP":40.4907352,"baseTP":28.0586663,"swingPct":79,"successMove":44,"failMove":-35,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ulefnersen","indication":"fus_als","title":"Ulefnersen FUS-ALS NDA submission (Otsuka; expedited pathway under FDA discussion)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Ionis + Otsuka PRs 2026-09-22","_confidence":"medium","failTP":27.9487786,"successTP":28.156212,"baseTP":28.0586663,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":330,"lenses":{"comparable":53.72}},"IOVA":{"name":"Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Amtagvi (lifileucel) first FDA-approved TIL therapy, melanoma 2L+ | Q2'26 RECORD $99.3M rev (GM 56%) | FY26 guide $350-370M under upward review | NSCLC + cervical Ph2; FT soft-tissue sarcoma","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":452.97,"netCashLocal":303,"cashPS":0.6689,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.38,"bear":2.12,"base":3.38,"bull":5.67,"psychedelic_bull":7.66},"weightedTP":3.73,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gynecologic.cervical","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.til","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il2","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":75},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":75},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":75},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":7}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":183,"totalTAM":18.5655,"totalWTD":6.562995},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 29 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-29","asset":"amtagvi","indication":"amt_mel","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-29: Iovance FY26 revenue guidance RAISED to $410-420M (from $350-370M; 8-K Sep 29 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001425205/000110465926111583/tm2626507d1_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.72624015,"successTP":3.72624015,"baseTP":3.72624015,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"amtagvi","indication":"amt_nsclc","title":"IOV-LUN-202 NSCLC Ph2 pivotal-cohort update (slipped from Q3 2026; Q2 PR: program update 4Q26, sBLA planned 2027)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":78,"_source":"IOVA pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.72624015,"successTP":3.72624015,"baseTP":3.72624015,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"amtagvi","indication":"amt_cerv","title":"IOV-COM-202 cervical Ph2 BLA-enabling data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":82,"_source":"IOVA pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.72624015,"successTP":3.72624015,"baseTP":3.72624015,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"amtagvi","indication":"amt_mel","title":"Amtagvi FY26 revenue + manufacturing slot utilization","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"IOVA quarterly","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.72624015,"successTP":3.72624015,"baseTP":3.72624015,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":264,"lenses":{"comparable":2.37},"readouts":[{"a":"amtagvi","ind":"amt_nsclc","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":15.6993969,"lo":0,"hi":36.3347107,"pBeatBest":0.17045,"bestDrug":"datopotamab deruxtecan","bestValue":26.4}]},"IPCALAB":{"name":"Ipca Laboratories Limited","subtitle":"Indian anti-malarial leader (34% share) | FY25 revenue +16%; net profit INR 738 cr (+35%) | Unichem subsidiary (52.67% stake; synergies) + chronic care + branded exports + APIs","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":254,"netCashLocal":5000,"cashPS":19.685,"tps":{"mega_bear":492.13,"bear":905.51,"base":1466.54,"bull":2726.38,"psychedelic_bull":5511.81},"weightedTP":1759.84,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.india_branded","_established_products","_established_products.us_generics"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.india_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.india_branded_subsidiary","_diversified.branded.india_exports"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-12","asset":"ipca_branded","indication":"ipca_in_div","title":"Ipca Laboratories Q2 FY27 results (Sep 2026 quarter)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ipca IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":1759.84252,"successTP":1759.84252,"baseTP":1759.84252,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1170,"lenses":{"comparable":1519.52,"peRel":1.4039}},"IPN":{"name":"Ipsen S.A.","subtitle":"Specialty pharma, 3 TAs: Oncology (Cabometyx + Onivyde) + Rare (Bylvay + Iqirvo) + Neuro (Dysport + Somatuline) | H1'26 sales +23.5% CER, FY26 guide upgraded | Dysport migraine Ph3 POSITIVE Jul'26","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":83,"netCashLocal":419.9,"cashPS":5.059,"tps":{"mega_bear":81.26,"bear":126.47,"base":194.3,"bull":313.57,"psychedelic_bull":481.53},"weightedTP":204.25,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.gi","oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","oncology.neuroendocrine","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","women_health","women_health.gyn_disorders","women_health.gyn_disorders.uterine_fibroids","gastro_hepatology.liver.cholestasis_genetic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics","cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","cns","cns.movement","cns.movement.spasticity","endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology.luminal","endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.fop","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","infectious_disease.viral.bkv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.multi_kinase","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","formulation_modifier.liposomal.irinotecan","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.liposomal","peptide.hormone_analog.gnrh.depot","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.gnrh","small_molecule.transporter.ibat","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.gpcr.ppar_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr","biological_extract.botulinum.toxin_type_a","biological_extract","biological_extract.botulinum","peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin.depot","peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin","small_molecule.osmotic.adsorbent","small_molecule.osmotic","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.gh_igf1","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone","small_molecule.kinase.alk2_acvr1","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.mdm2_p53","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_viral","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":14},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":14},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":12},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.uterine_fibroids","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":8},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":8},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":6},{"area":"cns.movement.spasticity","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":5},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":4},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cholestasis_genetic","purity":3},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.fop","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.bkv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":28},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":15},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":14},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":11},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.uterine_fibroids","purity":9},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":6},{"area":"cns.movement.spasticity","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":4},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cholestasis_genetic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":3},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.fop","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.bkv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":22},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":20},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.neurotoxin","purity":20},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":16},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":12},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cholestasis_genetic","purity":12},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":10},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":9},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":7},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.endometriosis","purity":6},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":6},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders","purity":5},{"area":"cns.movement.spasticity","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":4},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":4},{"area":"women_health.gyn_disorders.uterine_fibroids","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.bkv","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.fop","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":21,"rarePurityWtd":20,"optionality":6,"totalTAM":92.8456,"totalWTD":87.59055},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"iqirvo","indication":"iqir_pbc","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED Jul-2026 -- Iqirvo ELSPIRE Ph3b confirmatory PBC study MET its primary endpoint: 85% of Iqirvo patients achieved ALP normalisation at Week 52 vs 23% on placebo (p<0.0001)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"Ipsen H1 2026 results press release 2026-07-30","_confidence":"high","failTP":204.252018,"successTP":204.252018,"baseTP":204.252018,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"bylvay","indication":"pediatric_cholestasis","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED Jul-2026 -- Bylvay BOLD Ph3 in biliary atresia DID NOT MEET its primary endpoint; no label expansion. Existing PFIC + Alagille commercial base unaffected (peak multiplier trimmed for the lost expansion)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Ipsen H1 2026 results press release 2026-07-30","_confidence":"high","failTP":204.252018,"successTP":204.252018,"baseTP":204.252018,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"dysport","indication":"dysp_lcm","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED Jul-2026 -- Dysport BEOND Ph3 migraine programme POSITIVE: both E-BEOND (episodic) and C-BEOND (chronic) met the primary endpoint on monthly migraine days vs placebo; first botulinum toxin positive in both","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Ipsen H1 2026 results press release 2026-07-30","_confidence":"medium","failTP":204.252018,"successTP":204.252018,"baseTP":204.252018,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"somatuline","indication":"acromegaly","title":"Somatuline generic lanreotide erosion -- generic entry DELAYED per H1'26 (a driver of the FY26 guidance upgrade); watch for entry timing","type":"loe","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/ipsen-earnings-strong-dysport-cabometyx-sales-drive-top-line-growth-shares-slightly-undervalued","_confidence":"high","failTP":204.252018,"successTP":204.252018,"baseTP":204.252018,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"potravitug","indication":"potra_bkv","title":"Potravitug SAFE KIDNEY III pivotal Phase 2/3 initiation (BKV in kidney transplant)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.ipsen.com/press-release/ipsen-completes-acquisition-of-memo-therapeutics-ag-adding-first-in-class-asset-to-ipsens-rare-disease-pipeline-3331074/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":203.890319,"successTP":204.117509,"baseTP":204.252018,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"navtemadlin","indication":"navt_mf","title":"Navtemadlin POIESIS Phase 3 topline (add-on to ruxolitinib, TP53-WT MF with suboptimal response)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.ipsen.com/press-release/ipsen-to-acquire-kartos-therapeutics-expanding-hemato-oncology-late-stage-pipeline-3318643/","_confidence":"high","failTP":198.222686,"successTP":209.905439,"baseTP":204.252018,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2029","dateSort":"2029-06-30","asset":"iqirvo","indication":"iqir_psc","title":"Iqirvo PSC Phase 3 (ELASCOPE) readout -- ROLLED: enrollment began ~Apr 2026, no readout guided","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"IPN pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":204.252018,"successTP":204.252018,"baseTP":204.252018,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3073,"lenses":{"comparable":190.62,"eeRel":1.6279,"peRel":0.8368}},"IRON":{"name":"Disc Medicine","subtitle":"Bitopertin (oral GlyT1) EPP: CRL Feb'26, FDA Type A Jun'26 aligned APOLLO Ph3 for resubmission; APOLLO topline Q4'26; DISC-3405 PV Ph2 HIT Sep'26 (61.5% phlebotomy-free); cash $730M to 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":38.84,"netCashLocal":658.4,"cashPS":16.9516,"tps":{"mega_bear":15.46,"bear":24.78,"base":35.68,"bull":50.37,"psychedelic_bull":64.43},"weightedTP":36.18,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.porphyria","oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.glyt1","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tmprss6","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_hemojuvelin"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":42},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":21},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":52},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":30},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":18}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":101},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":11}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":11,"rarePurityWtd":18,"optionality":188,"totalTAM":11.886,"totalWTD":4.1283684},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 9 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-09","asset":"bitopertin","indication":"bito_epp","title":"REPORTED: Bitopertin FDA Type A meeting COMPLETE -- aligned that successful APOLLO Ph3 can serve as CRL response basis + support traditional approval","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/09/3308825/0/en/disc-medicine-provides-update-from-fda-type-a-meeting-for-bitopertin-in-erythropoietic-protoporphyria.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Type A meeting (2026-06-09) resolved favorably: Disc aligned with FDA that the ongoing APOLLO Ph3, if successful, can serve as the basis for a response to the CRL and could support TRADITIONAL approval. Clear positive regulatory path, but final approval now hinges on APOLLO topline (Q4 2026) -> FDA decision mid-2027. Applied soft (<=3pt) lift to mega_bear/bear bito_epp pos/apr toward success; base (75/80) already >= success target (70/78), monotonicity preserved.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_note":"2026-06-09: Disc Medicine PR/GlobeNewswire. Path to traditional approval clarified post-CRL; APOLLO data Q4 2026 is the gating binary.","failTP":24.5911738,"successTP":41.21345,"baseTP":36.1839062,"swingPct":23,"successMove":7,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"bitopertin","indication":"bito_epp","title":"Bitopertin APOLLO Ph3 EPP topline (enrollment complete)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://ir.discmedicine.com/news-releases","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.9599802,"successTP":42.939075,"baseTP":36.1839062,"swingPct":53,"successMove":19,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"disc3405","indication":"disc3405_pv","title":"DISC-3405 RESTORE-PV Ph2 full/extended update + initial Ph1b sickle-cell disease data (company-guided by end-2026)","type":"phase2_data","fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":66,"success_apr":70,"severity":"medium","failTP":29.1804931,"successTP":40.5215747,"baseTP":36.1839062,"swingPct":31,"successMove":12,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-31","asset":"bitopertin","indication":"bito_epp","title":"Bitopertin FDA decision (post-resubmission)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://ir.discmedicine.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":24.5911738,"successTP":44.8787539,"baseTP":36.1839062,"swingPct":56,"successMove":24,"failMove":-32,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":105.95}},"IRWD":{"name":"Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"GI specialty | LINZESS (AbbVie 50/50 US profit share) FY26 guide raised: US net sales 1.15-1.20B, revenue 460-485M, adj EBITDA >310M | Apraglutide Ph3 STARS-2 SBS-IF enrolling","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":165.24,"netCashLocal":-305.9,"cashPS":-1.8512,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.15,"bear":3.59,"base":7.76,"bull":13.24,"psychedelic_bull":23.28},"weightedTP":8.47,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.guanylin.linaclotide","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.guanylin","peptide.hormone_analog.glp2"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":101},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":100},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":99}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":101},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":100},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":99}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":100},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":9.45,"totalWTD":9.45},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"apraglutide","indication":"apra_sbs","title":"REPORTED: Ironwood Q1 2026 results reported May 7 -- LINZESS US net sales +97% YoY; FY26 guidance maintained; apraglutide STARS-2 Ph3 SBS-IF site initiation begins Q2 2026 (CR letter -> resubmission/confirmatory program)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ironwood Q1 2026 PR (May 7, 2026)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":6.23484824,"successTP":10.7493017,"baseTP":8.46733393,"swingPct":27,"successMove":14,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"apraglutide","indication":"apra_sbs","title":"REPORTED: Apraglutide Phase 3 STARS-2 SBS-IF site initiations begun Q2 2026 (key NEAT confirmatory)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"On-track per Q1 2026 report (2026-05-07): STARS-2 confirmatory Phase 3 (apraglutide, SBS-IF) site feasibility complete; company guided site initiations beginning in Q2 2026 (window ending 2026-06-30). 24-week global randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial; FDA design alignment achieved late 2025. No specific 'sites initiated' press release beyond reaffirmed Q2 guidance.","_source":"https://investor.ironwoodpharma.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Ironwood-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Strong-First-Quarter-2026-Results-With-97-Year-Over-Year-LINZESS-U-S--Net-Sales-Growth-Maintains-Full-Year-2026-Financial-Guidance/default.aspx","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.23484824,"successTP":10.7493017,"baseTP":8.46733393,"swingPct":16,"successMove":8,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17}],"salesM2025":280,"lenses":{"comparable":18.29,"eeRel":3.1395,"peRel":4.0287}},"ITF":{"name":"Italfarmaco S.p.A.","subtitle":"Italian private specialty (De Santis family); Duvyzat (givinostat) DMD -- FDA Mar'24, EU Jun'25, Health Canada NDS on PRIORITY REVIEW Jun'26, decision possible by end-2026","currency":"EUR","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.epigenetic.hdac_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.epigenetic","_diversified.branded.italy_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":164},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":82},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":18},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":18},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":177},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":89},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":18,"rarePurityWtd":11,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":26.108,"totalWTD":24.2006},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":800},"IVA":{"name":"Inventiva","subtitle":"Lanifibranor pan-PPAR Ph3 NATiV3 MASH topline Q4'26 (last patient visit Sep 2'26; NDA H1'27); BINARY SINGLE-ASSET BET; cash+deposits EUR233.9M net of EUR75M debt into end-Q2'27; 50% workforce cut 2025","currency":"USD","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":236.3,"netCashLocal":174.8,"cashPS":0.7397,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.75,"bear":2.4,"base":5.4,"bull":8.58,"psychedelic_bull":11.16},"weightedTP":3.87,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ppar_pan_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":83,"totalTAM":23.8,"totalWTD":12.9948},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"lanifibranor","indication":"lani_mash","title":"Lanifibranor Ph3 NATiV3 MASH topline (binary single-asset)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/26/3301432/0/en/Inventiva-Reports-2026-First-Quarter-Financial-Information.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.801953329,"successTP":8.12891773,"baseTP":3.8729192,"swingPct":189,"successMove":110,"failMove":-79,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":53,"daysOut":null,"materiality":89}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.4},"readouts":[{"a":"lanifibranor","ind":"lani_mash","ds":"2026-11-15","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":28.5819597,"lo":6.0911559,"hi":52.67568,"pBeatBest":0.10575,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"IVVD":{"name":"Invivyd","subtitle":"PEMGARDA COVID PrEP: Q2'26 $14.3M (+21% YoY) but FDA EUA TERMINATES Jun 29 2027 (HHS wind-down; FDA dialogue on next steps); VYD2311 LIBERTY topline late Q3'26, DECLARATION near analysis; cash $160.1M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":294.61,"netCashLocal":160.1,"cashPS":0.5434,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.38,"bear":0.55,"base":0.81,"bull":1.15,"psychedelic_bull":1.67},"weightedTP":0.77,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.covid_prevention","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_spike","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_prevention","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_prevention","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_prevention","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":43,"totalTAM":2.28,"totalWTD":1.589616},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"vyd2311","indication":"vyd2311_covid","title":"VYD2311 LIBERTY Ph3 H2H safety/immunology vs mRNA vaccine topline (enrollment COMPLETE Jun'26, ~210 healthy adults 18-49; topline Q3'26)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/16/3312427/0/en/Invivyd-Announces-Completion-of-Enrollment-in-Phase-3-LIBERTY-Trial-Evaluating-VYD2311-Antibody-Versus-mRNA-COVID-19-Vaccine.html","_confidence":"medium","_note":"Jun 9'26 first participants dosed; Jun 16'26 enrollment complete. LIBERTY is a Ph3 SAFETY/immunology + co-administration study (not efficacy); pivotal efficacy is the DECLARATION trial. Phase corrected Ph2->Ph3 + timing H2'26->Q3'26 per company PR; no pos change (no efficacy read).","failTP":0.647419863,"successTP":0.875628307,"baseTP":0.76850319,"swingPct":30,"successMove":14,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-29","asset":"pemgarda","indication":"pem_covid_prep","title":"PEMGARDA EUA TERMINATION effective date (FDA Notice of Termination Jul 6 2026, following HHS COVID-19 EUA declaration wind-down) - franchise ends unless FDA grants a BLA or alternative authorisation","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"failTP":0.631998568,"successTP":0.954351828,"baseTP":0.76850319,"swingPct":21,"successMove":12,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":49,"lenses":{"comparable":0.7}},"JANX":{"name":"Janux Therapeutics","subtitle":"TRACTr tumor-activated T cell engager platform | JANX007 PSMA mCRPC Ph1 | JANX008 EGFR Ph1 | Merck + BMS deals","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":61.14,"netCashLocal":970.9,"cashPS":15.8799,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.69,"bear":8.11,"base":11.9,"bull":15.76,"psychedelic_bull":18.85},"weightedTP":12.28,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","_platform.tractr_collaborations","_platform"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.tumor_activated_tce","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cd19_arm_modulator"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":67},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":34},{"area":"_platform.tractr_collaborations","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":26}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":41},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":41},{"area":"_platform.tractr_collaborations","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":153},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":23},{"area":"_platform.tractr_collaborations","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1930,"totalTAM":36.6591,"totalWTD":1.80571266},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 27, 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-27","asset":"janx008","indication":"egfr_solid","title":"REPORTED (2026-04-27, fail): JANX008 EGFR-TRACTr solid tumors dose expansion -- program DISCONTINUED after Ph1a","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Janux discontinued JANX008 EGFR-TRACTr on Apr 27, 2026 after Ph1a results (20-25% ORR in select cohorts; insufficient relative to other pipeline).","_outcomeSource":"https://investors.januxrx.com/investor-media/news/news-details/2026/Janux-Therapeutics-Announces-Discontinuation-of-JANX008-Clinical-Development/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":12.2843287,"successTP":13.1643911,"baseTP":12.2843287,"swingPct":5,"successMove":5,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-14","asset":"psma_tracir","indication":"tracir","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-14: JANX013 (PSMA-TRACIr CD28 co-stimulatory bispecific) first patient dosed in Ph1 with JANX007 in mCRPC (NCT07813637)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":20,"success_apr":25,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.trefis.com/data/companies/JANX","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"IND-enabling studies underway, clinical trials expected to begin in second half 2026 per R&D Day presentation","_rollNote":"Rolled from 2026-08-01: Q2 2026 (Aug 5 2026) reiterates JANX013 (PSMA-targeted CD28 costimulatory TRACIr) clinical initiation in 2H 2026 -- still pending, timing only, no assumption change. Separately JANX014 (double-masked PSMA-TRACTr) dosed its first mCRPC patient in Apr 2026 and continues enrolling.","_rollSource":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/janux-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-highlights","failTP":12.2762103,"successTP":12.288548,"baseTP":12.2843287,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":4,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"janx011","indication":"autoimmune","title":"JANX011 CD19-ARM Phase 1 HEALTHY-VOLUNTEER study initial clinical data -- company-guided H2 2026","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":40,"_source":"Janux Q2 2026 8-K Ex-99.1","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001817713/000119312526211964/janx-ex99_1.htm","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Management expects initial clinical update from Phase 1 study by year-end 2026 per Q4 2025 earnings","failTP":11.7655719,"successTP":12.6747535,"baseTP":12.2843287,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"janx007","indication":"mcrpc","title":"JANX007 (PSMA-TRACTr) additional Ph1b clinical data at a medical congress -- guided H1 2027; enrolment continues across taxane-naive monotherapy and darolutamide-combination cohorts","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_source":"Janux Q2 2026 8-K Ex-99.1","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001817713/000119312526211964/janx-ex99_1.htm","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Q2 2026 report guides additional JANX007 data to a medical congress in H1 2027; the config carried no JANX007 data catalyst","failTP":12.0663681,"successTP":12.1478213,"baseTP":12.2843287,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":11.72},"readouts":[{"a":"janx008","ind":"egfr_solid","ds":"2026-04-27","area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":2.37135692,"lo":0,"hi":20.3031989,"pBeatBest":0.32055,"bestDrug":"trifluridine/tipiracil + bev","bestValue":6.3},{"a":"janx011","ind":"autoimmune","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":14.3674986,"lo":-15,"hi":55.8770409,"pBeatBest":0.0783,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"janx007","ind":"mcrpc","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","endpoint":"rpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":7.82301774,"lo":0.676082517,"hi":15.0462145,"pBeatBest":0.13095,"bestDrug":"177Lu-PSMA-617 (pre-taxane)","bestValue":12.02}]},"JAZZ":{"name":"Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc","subtitle":"Sleep (Xywav) + Epidiolex + KCNT1 epilepsy (ABS-1230) + oncology (Zepzelca 1L maint., Vyxeos, Rylaze, Defitelio, Modeyso, Ziihera HER2+ BTC + 1L GEA approved Aug'26)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":64,"netCashLocal":-3196.6,"cashPS":-49.9469,"tps":{"mega_bear":101.45,"bear":175.03,"base":283.8,"bull":451.51,"psychedelic_bull":653.35},"weightedTP":290.39,"meta":{"areas":["cns.sleep.narcolepsy","cns","cns.sleep","cns.sleep.idiopathic_hypersomnia","cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee","cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","cns.epilepsy.tsc","cns.epilepsy.dee.scn2a_scn8a","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.leukemia.aml.secondary","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","oncology.leukemia.all","hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","hematology","hematology.transplant_complications","oncology.brain.h3k27m_diffuse_midline_glioma","oncology.brain","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","cns.movement.essential_tremor","cns.movement","cns.epilepsy.dee.broad_spectrum"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.ghb_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.cannabidiol","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.minor_groove_binder","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.liposomal_combo_chemo","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.asparaginase","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.oligonucleotide.defibrotide_ssdna","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.oligonucleotide","small_molecule.enzyme.clpp_imipridone","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.bispecific.her2_biparatopic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","small_molecule.ion_channel.cav3_t_type","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.ion_channel.kcnt1_inhibitor","small_molecule.gpcr.ghb"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":77},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":42},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":23},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":18},{"area":"cns.movement.essential_tremor","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":13},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":11},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":7},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":7},{"area":"cns.sleep.idiopathic_hypersomnia","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.broad_spectrum","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.scn2a_scn8a","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.secondary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.brain.h3k27m_diffuse_midline_glioma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":87},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":47},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":25},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":16},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":14},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":9},{"area":"cns.sleep.idiopathic_hypersomnia","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.scn2a_scn8a","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.secondary","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.broad_spectrum","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.brain.h3k27m_diffuse_midline_glioma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":0},{"area":"cns.movement.essential_tremor","purity":0},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":57},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":42},{"area":"cns.sleep.idiopathic_hypersomnia","purity":26},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.all","purity":23},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":15},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.lgs","purity":12},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":10},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":9},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.secondary","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.broad_spectrum","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.brain.h3k27m_diffuse_midline_glioma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.scn2a_scn8a","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"cns.movement.essential_tremor","purity":0},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":55,"rarePurityWtd":67,"optionality":28,"totalTAM":51.08784,"totalWTD":39.8581129},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-25","asset":"ziihera","indication":"gea_her2","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-25 (SUCCESS): FDA APPROVED Ziihera (zanidatamab-hrii) +/- Tevimbra (tislelizumab) plus fluoropyrimidine/platinum chemo in 1L unresectable locally advanced or metastatic HER2+ gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma -- IHC3+ and IHC2+/ISH+ with Tevimbra, IHC3+ chemo-only; regardless of PD-L1 status. 2nd zanidatamab approval in under 2 years","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.jazzpharma.com/news/zanidatamab-pdufa-herizon-gea-01","_confidence":"high","failTP":290.392472,"successTP":290.392472,"baseTP":290.392472,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-31","asset":"ziihera","indication":"gea_her2","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-31 (SUCCESS): HERIZON-GEA-01 SECOND INTERIM OS analysis -- Ziihera + chemo showed a statistically significant and clinically meaningful OS benefit vs trastuzumab + chemo, meeting the remaining primary endpoint; HR improved vs the 1st interim (24.4 vs 19.2 mo, HR 0.80, NEJM May 28 2026). Topline only -- numerics not disclosed","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":68,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"JAZZ pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":290.392472,"successTP":290.392472,"baseTP":290.392472,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"xywav","indication":"ih","title":"Xywav IH demand growth + reimbursement coverage expansion update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.jazzpharma.com/investors","_confidence":"high","failTP":290.392472,"successTP":290.392472,"baseTP":290.392472,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"TBD","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ziihera","indication":"breast_her2","title":"Ziihera HER2+ metastatic breast cancer Ph2 expansion readout -- ROLLED from H2 2026: not guided in Q2'26 PR (no breast mention); date is a placeholder","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.jazzpharma.com/pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_note":"2026-10-09 freshness: no H2'26 breast readout disclosed; Q2'26 PR (Aug 3) silent on breast; only early neoadjuvant NeoZanHER data (AACR Apr 2026). Rolled, no assumption change.","failTP":290.392472,"successTP":290.392472,"baseTP":290.392472,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3972,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":71,"ceilPct":65,"position":"commercial_incumbent","asset":"defitelio","ind":"vod_hsct","area":"hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","somB":0.3,"tamB":0.4}},"lenses":{"comparable":238.48,"eeRel":1.7917,"peRel":0.9983}},"JBCHEPHARM":{"name":"J B Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"India branded Rx cardiovascular leader (Cilacar + Nicardia + Sporlac): KKR controlling stake 2020; FY25 rev INR 39.18B; TTM Dec'25 INR 41.93B; Q3 FY26 NP INR 198cr +22%","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":157,"netCashLocal":5000,"cashPS":31.8471,"tps":{"mega_bear":810.24,"bear":1003.72,"base":1162.93,"bull":1401.05,"psychedelic_bull":1692.56},"weightedTP":1189.68,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.cv_specialty_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":27.0125,"totalWTD":27.0125},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"jb_cv_franchise","indication":"jb_diversified","title":"JB Chemicals FY 2026 revenue + KKR exit overhang resolution","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.screener.in/company/JBCHEPHARM/consolidated/","_confidence":"high","failTP":1025.08141,"successTP":1369.20165,"baseTP":1189.6836,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":470,"lenses":{"comparable":1143.53,"peRel":1.0004}},"JBIO":{"name":"Jade Biosciences","subtitle":"Autoimmune mAbs: JADE101 anti-APRIL Ph1 IgAN interim H1'26 + Ph2 start; JADE201 anti-BAFF-R FIH dosed May'26 in RA, interim 2027; cash ~$498M (post Jun'26 $172.5M raise); 60.8M sh","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":60.8,"netCashLocal":498.5,"cashPS":8.199,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.64,"bear":9.57,"base":13.71,"bull":19.76,"psychedelic_bull":26.95},"weightedTP":13.58,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_april","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_baff_r"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":164},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":82},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":36},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":115},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":85},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":58},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":42}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":125},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":75},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":62},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":38}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":346,"totalTAM":38.065,"totalWTD":8.532822},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"jade101","indication":"jade101_igan","title":"RESOLVED (success): JADE101 Ph1 interim biomarker data (IgA nephropathy) -- ~70% IgA reduction sustained at 12wk, supports 350mg Q12W best-in-class profile (Jun 1 2026)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/JBIO/jade-biosciences-outlines-key-2026-objectives-and-strategy-to-rwbxrexnq7m3.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"JADE101 Ph1 interim (HV): ~70% sustained IgA reduction at 12 weeks, modeling supports 350mg Q12W dosing (potential best-in-class). Ph2 IgAN underway; registrational Ph3 planned H1 2027.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/01/3304176/0/en/jade-biosciences-announces-positive-interim-phase-1-results-for-jade101-demonstrating-potential-best-in-class-profile-and-every-12-week-dosing-in-iga-nephropathy.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":8.72110397,"successTP":16.2560264,"baseTP":13.577858,"swingPct":39,"successMove":14,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"jade101","indication":"jade101_igan","title":"JADE101 Ph2 JUNIPER interim data in IgA nephropathy (open-label, ~30 participants; company guides interim 2027)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Jade Biosciences PR \"First Participant Dosed in Phase 2 JUNIPER Clinical Trial of JADE101 in IgA Nephropathy\"; https://jadebiosciences.com/press-release/jade-biosciences-announces-first-participant-dosed-in-phase-2-juniper-clinical-trial-of-jade101-in-iga-nephropathy/","_confidence":"medium","_note":"ADDED 2026-08-18: config had zero forward catalysts after the Jun'26 Ph1 interim resolved.","failTP":9.51294563,"successTP":17.3291156,"baseTP":13.577858,"swingPct":58,"successMove":28,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"jade101","indication":"jade101_igan","title":"JADE101 Ph3 registrational trial initiation in IgA nephropathy (company guides H1 2027)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":82,"_source":"Jade Biosciences PR (Phase 2 JUNIPER dosing announcement) -- Ph3 registrational trial expected H1 2027","_confidence":"medium","_note":"ADDED 2026-08-18.","failTP":10.9553518,"successTP":16.5927698,"baseTP":13.577858,"swingPct":12,"successMove":7,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"jade201","indication":"jade201_ra","title":"JADE201 (afucosylated anti-BAFF-R) first-in-human interim data in rheumatoid arthritis (SAD dosing began May 27 2026)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":52,"success_apr":62,"_source":"Jade Biosciences pipeline guidance; JADE201 Ph1 SAD first participant dosed May 27 2026","_confidence":"medium","_note":"ADDED 2026-08-18: JADE201 interim was described in the subtitle but untracked as a catalyst.","failTP":11.3283711,"successTP":15.9361079,"baseTP":13.577858,"swingPct":24,"successMove":12,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":17.65},"readouts":[{"a":"jade101","ind":"jade101_igan","ds":"2026-06-30","area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","endpoint":"proteinuria_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":38.8195234,"lo":7.32206573,"hi":62.9012167,"pBeatBest":0.17885,"bestDrug":"sibeprenlimab","bestValue":50.2},{"a":"jade101","ind":"jade101_igan","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","endpoint":"proteinuria_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":39.0398491,"lo":9.08607834,"hi":57.3733402,"pBeatBest":0.1169,"bestDrug":"sibeprenlimab","bestValue":50.2},{"a":"jade201","ind":"jade201_ra","ds":"2027-12-31","area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","endpoint":"acr20_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":61.3744256,"lo":32.6394698,"hi":82.8395789,"pBeatBest":0.40485,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 15mg","bestValue":64}]},"JNJ":{"name":"Johnson & Johnson (Innovative Medicine + MedTech)","subtitle":"IM $65.5B + MedTech $35.4B 2026 run-rate (blended SOTP) | Stelara LOE | Tremfya/Darzalex/Caplyta growth | Carvykti 50/50 LEGN | IMAAVY gMG+wAIHA | Inlexzo NMIBC","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2406,"netCashLocal":-28278,"cashPS":-11.7531,"tps":{"mega_bear":114.92,"bear":153.73,"base":205.84,"bull":271.67,"psychedelic_bull":351.14},"weightedTP":217.2,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.hiv","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","nephrology.ckd.anemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","cns.psychiatry.adhd","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd38","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il12_il23","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ar","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.kinase.btk_covalent","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.factor_xa","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.ion_channel.nmda_esketamine","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_d2_lai","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.endothelin_at1","small_molecule.gpcr.prostacyclin","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_bcma","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","biologic.antibody.bispecific.egfr_met","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bcma_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific.gprc5d_cd3","small_molecule.gpcr.lumateperone_5ht2a","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf","small_molecule.kinase.hiv_integrase_lai","small_molecule.enzyme.parp1_2","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","peptide.receptor_blocker.il23r_oral","peptide","peptide.receptor_blocker","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.gemcitabine_intravesical","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_fcrn"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":24},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":18},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":18},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":25},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":14},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":5},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":4},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":62},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":34},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":25},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":17},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv.treatment","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hiv","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":21,"rarePurityWtd":20,"optionality":5,"totalTAM":516.6506,"totalWTD":493.334044},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 18 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-18","asset":"jnj_2113","indication":"jnj2113_pso","title":"REPORTED (2026-03-18, approved): ICOTYDE (icotrokinra) FDA-APPROVED for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in adults and patients 12+ weighing >=40kg -- first and only targeted ORAL peptide IL-23 receptor antagonist; network meta-analysis shows PASI100/IGA0 comparable to injectable IL-23 biologics. ICONIC ulcerative colitis Ph3 continues.","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Johnson & Johnson investor news 2026-03-18; corroborated by Drugs.com, AJMC, Pharmacy Times","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Confirmed FDA approval (J&J investor-news PR 2026-03-18). The config was still carrying this as a FUTURE Ph3 readout catalyst dated 2026-12-15. jnj2113_pso pos/apr moved 75/85 -> 100/100 at base (approval is factual, not judgment). The asset remains in the SOTP PIPELINE bucket -- a true commercial re-rate (moving icotrokinra revenue into commercialRevM) is a valuation-structure change and is FLAGGED, not auto-applied.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.investor.jnj.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/FDA-approval-of-ICOTYDE-icotrokinra-ushers-in-new-era-for-first-line-systemic-treatment-of-plaque-psoriasis-with-a-targeted-oral-peptide/default.aspx","failTP":209.565624,"successTP":218.910453,"baseTP":217.198649,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tremfya","indication":"tremfya_ibd","title":"REPORTED (2025-03-28, approved): Tremfya Crohn's disease FDA approval (GRAVITI/GALAXI; first IL-23 with SC + IV induction) -- 4th US indication","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"JNJ pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.jnj.com/media-center/press-releases/u-s-fda-approves-tremfya-guselkumab-the-first-and-only-il-23-inhibitor-offering-both-subcutaneous-and-intravenous-induction-options-for-adult-patients-with-moderately-to-severely-active-crohns-disease","failTP":217.198649,"successTP":217.198649,"baseTP":217.198649,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":67150,"lenses":{"comparable":164.82,"eeRel":0.7266,"peRel":0.6154}},"JUBLPHARMA":{"name":"Jubilant Pharmova","subtitle":"India CDMO+Radiopharma+Allergy: FY26 rev INR 8,280 Cr +14% EBITDA 1,326 Cr +8% PAT 442 Cr; CDMO Sterile Inj +38% Spokane Line 3; Allergy Imm +12%; MCap INR 160B","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":159.35,"netCashLocal":8000,"cashPS":50.204,"tps":{"mega_bear":713.27,"bear":1003.64,"base":1245.63,"bull":1682.2,"psychedelic_bull":2120.62},"weightedTP":1268.32,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.sterile_injectables","_platform","_platform.cdmo","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.theranostic","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter","_diversified.mixed.allergy_immunotherapy","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":42,"totalWTD":42},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"jubilant_radiopharma","indication":"jub_radiopharma_franchise","title":"Montreal SPECT facility FDA remediation complete + commercial batch restart + Spokane Line 3 sustained","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://www.aninews.in/news/business/jubilant-pharmova-fy26-revenue-rises-14-to-rs-8280-crore-cdmo-sterile-injectables-business-jumps-3820260522181812/","_confidence":"high","failTP":1088.22999,"successTP":1333.84757,"baseTP":1268.32463,"swingPct":10,"successMove":3,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1454.6,"peRel":0.9998}},"JUNSHI":{"name":"Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co. Ltd.","subtitle":"China PD-1 originator (toripalimab) | H1'26 rev RMB 1.69B (+45%), first profit RMB 25.5M; 13 approved CN indications | Loqtorzi US via Coherus royalty | Tifcemalimab BTLA Ph3 + JS207 PD-1xVEGF","currency":"HKD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":985,"netCashLocal":3500,"cashPS":3.5533,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.7,"bear":18.73,"base":28.41,"bull":49.27,"psychedelic_bull":88.91},"weightedTP":32.2,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.npc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","_royalty.junshi_coherus","_royalty","infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.tnbc"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.antiviral.rdrp","small_molecule","small_molecule.antiviral","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_btla","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_vegf","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.egfr_her3_bispecific","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":80},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":80},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":16},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":1},{"area":"_royalty.junshi_coherus","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":81},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":23},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":2},{"area":"_royalty.junshi_coherus","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.npc","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":43},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":6},{"area":"_royalty.junshi_coherus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":8,"rarePurityWtd":4,"optionality":48,"totalTAM":79.908992,"totalWTD":54.0734167},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"js207","indication":"nsclc_js207","title":"JS207 PD-1xVEGF bispecific Ph2/3 readouts (11 ongoing Ph2; FDA Ph2/3 IND Oct 2025; vs Akeso ivonescimab)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Junshi pipeline","_confidence":"low","failTP":32.1574643,"successTP":32.2405623,"baseTP":32.2045413,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-31","asset":"tifcemalimab","indication":"lssclc_btla","title":"Tifcemalimab Ph3 confirmatory LS-SCLC enrollment + interim (first global BTLA Ph3) -- ROLLED: CT.gov NCT06095583 primary completion Jul 31 2027","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Junshi/Coherus pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":32.1472869,"successTP":32.2504822,"baseTP":32.2045413,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":323,"lenses":{"comparable":15.77},"readouts":[{"a":"js207","ind":"nsclc_js207","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.80733285,"lo":2.41868425,"hi":12.4569295,"pBeatBest":0.12055,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"KAEF":{"name":"PT Kimia Farma Tbk","subtitle":"State-owned Indonesian integrated pharma + 1,054 Apotek pharmacies (IDR 9.22T FY25 rev, -7.2% Y/Y) | FY25 net loss Rp335B (-60% Y/Y, narrowing); high leverage: net debt ~IDR 7.3T (cash 0.5T vs debt","currency":"IDR","country":"ID","region":"ASIA.ID","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":5554,"netCashLocal":-7271000,"cashPS":-1309.1466,"tps":{"mega_bear":184.91,"bear":516.92,"base":981.74,"bull":1678.97,"psychedelic_bull":2924.02},"weightedTP":1143.6,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.indonesia_soe","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kaef_diversified","indication":"kaef_div","title":"Kimia Farma asset divestiture IDR 2.15T + Apotek consolidation + restructuring","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Kimia Farma FY25","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1143.59921,"successTP":1143.59921,"baseTP":1143.59921,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":560,"lenses":{"comparable":4378.11}},"KALV":{"name":"KalVista Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"PRIVATE (delisted Jun 11 2026): Chiesi acquisition COMPLETED at $27/sh ($1.9B). EKTERLY first oral on-demand HAE; FY25 $49M, Q1'26 $40.9M run-rate; 1318 PSFs Dec'25","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":51.24,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","immunology","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.plasma_kallikrein","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":4.2025,"totalWTD":4.2025},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":49},"KLBF":{"name":"PT Kalbe Farma Tbk","subtitle":"Largest SE Asia pharma (IDR 35.32T FY25, +8.3%; NP IDR 3.67T +13%); vertically integrated: Distribution 35% + Rx 29% + Nutrition 23% + Consumer Health 14%","currency":"IDR","country":"ID","region":"ASIA.ID","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":45290,"netCashLocal":4244000,"cashPS":93.7072,"tps":{"mega_bear":600.62,"bear":1029.54,"base":1653.43,"bull":2433.3,"psychedelic_bull":3603.09},"weightedTP":1799.66,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","_established_products.klbf_nutrition","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["_diversified.distribution.indonesia","_diversified","_diversified.distribution","_diversified.branded.indonesia_branded_rx","_diversified.branded","_diversified.consumer.nutrition_infant","_diversified.consumer","_diversified.consumer.indonesia_consumer","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.klbf_nutrition","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.klbf_nutrition","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.klbf_nutrition","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":31.844,"totalWTD":31.844},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"klbf_distribution","indication":"klbf_dist","title":"FY26 IDR top-line + IDR 500B buyback execution","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Kalbe FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":1799.65776,"successTP":1799.65776,"baseTP":1799.65776,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2226,"lenses":{"comparable":2657.15,"eeRel":2.1538,"peRel":2.2948}},"KLRS":{"name":"Kalaris Therapeutics","subtitle":"TH103 dual-targeting biologic for wet AMD (VEGFR1 + HSPG anchoring extended retention): Ph1a +10 letters BCVA + 95% intraretinal fluid red; Ph1b/2 MAD enrolling, data 1H'27; Ph3 YE'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":30,"netCashLocal":118,"cashPS":3.9333,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.11,"bear":2.45,"base":2.92,"bull":3.96,"psychedelic_bull":5.83},"weightedTP":2.9,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.fusion.vegfr1_hspg","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fusion"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":448,"totalTAM":9.5,"totalWTD":1.7328},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-31","asset":"th103","indication":"th103_nvamd","title":"TH103 Ph1b/2 multiple ascending dose nAMD preliminary data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://eyewire.news/news/kalaris-therapeutics-launches-phase-1b2-dose-finding-trial-of-th103-for-wet-amd","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.42209289,"successTP":3.7277802,"baseTP":2.90219226,"swingPct":45,"successMove":28,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.7},"readouts":[{"a":"th103","ind":"th103_nvamd","ds":"2027-05-31","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":6.09897276,"lo":-4.62778616,"hi":12.7118106,"pBeatBest":0.06805,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3}]},"KMDA":{"name":"Kamada Ltd.","subtitle":"Israeli plasma-derived specialty | FY25 $180.5M (+12%) | KedRAB rabies + Glassia AAT (Takeda royalty) + Cytogam + Varizig | inhaled AAT Ph3 discontinued (futility Dec'25) | 2026 guide $200-205M","currency":"USD","country":"IL","region":"MEA.IL","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":57.7,"netCashLocal":63,"cashPS":1.0919,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.14,"bear":11.49,"base":14.46,"bull":23.62,"psychedelic_bull":46.85},"weightedTP":16.49,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.rabies","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","infectious_disease.viral.cmv","infectious_disease.viral"],"modalities":["biologic.plasma_derived.ivig.hyperimmune_rabies","biologic","biologic.plasma_derived","biologic.plasma_derived.ivig","biologic.plasma_derived.serpin.a1at","biologic.plasma_derived.serpin","biologic.plasma_derived.ivig.hyperimmune_diversified"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":136},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":68},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rabies","purity":33},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.cmv","purity":31},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":17},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":16}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":103},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":51},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rabies","purity":50},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.cmv","purity":47},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":25},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":24}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":68,"rarePurityWtd":51,"optionality":51,"totalTAM":6.37125,"totalWTD":4.21989},"catalysts":[{"date":"Dec 2025","dateSort":"2025-12-08","asset":"inhaled_aat","indication":"inhaled_aat_emphysema","title":"REPORTED (fail): Inhaled AAT InnovATe Phase 3 DISCONTINUED for futility (DSMB prespecified interim)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"DSMB prespecified interim analysis judged the trial unlikely to demonstrate FEV1 benefit; Kamada discontinued the program (efficacy futility, not safety). Reaffirmed on Q1 2026 call (May 13 2026). Asset collapsed to dead across scenarios; slice already zero so no TP impact.","_source":"Kamada PR Dec 8 2025 (discontinuation); Q1 2026 earnings May 13 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.4863951,"successTP":16.4863951,"baseTP":16.4863951,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"kedrab","indication":"kedrab_rabies","title":"RESOLVED: San Antonio plasma collection center FDA approval","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved Kamada Plasma's San Antonio, TX collection center on 2026-03-26 (following Feb 2026 on-site inspection); cleared for commercial sales of normal source plasma, ~50,000 L/yr capacity, projected $8-10M annual revenue at full capacity. Third FDA-approved TX center.","_source":"https://www.kamada.com/news/kamada-announces-fda-approval-of-its-plasma-collection-center-in-san-antonio-texas/","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.4863951,"successTP":16.4863951,"baseTP":16.4863951,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"kedrab","indication":"kedrab_rabies","title":"Kamada Q3 2026 results -- progress against the FY26 revenue guide of $200-205M and the firm $90M Kedrion KedRAB commitment for 2026-2027","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://ir.kamada.com/","_rationale":"Added Sep 2 2026 (freshness): config had no catalyst dated after Jun 2026. Commercial-only thesis now, so the quarterly revenue/EBITDA prints against the $200-205M FY26 guide are the live checkpoints.","failTP":16.4863951,"successTP":16.4863951,"baseTP":16.4863951,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Mar 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-15","asset":"kedrab","indication":"kedrab_rabies","title":"Kamada FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance -- plasma-collection ramp (Houston + San Antonio) flowing through margin","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://ir.kamada.com/","_rationale":"Added Sep 2 2026 (freshness). With inhaled AAT discontinued (Dec 2025), the value question is whether the two FDA-approved US collection centers convert into the guided margin expansion.","failTP":16.4863951,"successTP":16.4863951,"baseTP":16.4863951,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":129,"lenses":{"comparable":10.18,"eeRel":1.1089,"peRel":0.5541}},"KNSA":{"name":"Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International plc","subtitle":"Arcalyst (rilonacept) IL-1 trap recurrent pericarditis (FDA 2021) | FY25 $677.6M (+62%); 2026 guide $900-920M (~+34%) | Profitable | KPL-387 IL-1R MAb Ph2 topline Q4'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":77.58,"netCashLocal":525.9,"cashPS":6.7788,"tps":{"mega_bear":28.48,"bear":45.02,"base":75.63,"bull":90.63,"psychedelic_bull":124.04},"weightedTP":74.85,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.inflammatory_cardiac.recurrent_pericarditis","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.inflammatory_cardiac","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.il1_trap","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il1r","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_osmr"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.inflammatory_cardiac.recurrent_pericarditis","purity":161},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.inflammatory_cardiac","purity":80},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":39},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":20}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.inflammatory_cardiac.recurrent_pericarditis","purity":187},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.inflammatory_cardiac","purity":94},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.inflammatory_cardiac.recurrent_pericarditis","purity":199},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.inflammatory_cardiac","purity":99},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":37,"totalTAM":21.9675,"totalWTD":16.08012},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"kpl_387","indication":"kpl387_rp","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-28 (HIT): KPL-387 Ph2 recurrent pericarditis -- rapid, sustained pain + CRP reductions at 300 mg SC monthly (Ph3 dose); pivotal Ph3 PASTORALE now enrolling + dosing","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"KNSA pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":51.1974351,"successTP":81.6109781,"baseTP":74.8533349,"swingPct":41,"successMove":9,"failMove":-32,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":34},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"arcalyst","indication":"arc_rp","title":"Arcalyst FY26 $900-920M raised guide (~+34%; blockbuster crossed)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"KNSA FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":74.8533349,"successTP":74.8533349,"baseTP":74.8533349,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":678,"lenses":{"comparable":51.49,"eeRel":0.1706,"peRel":0.342}},"KOD":{"name":"Kodiak Sciences","subtitle":"ABC platform retina: DAYBREAK Ph3 nvAMD MET Sep'26 (Zenkuda + KSI-501 non-inferior to aflibercept); Zenkuda BLA Q4'26; KSI-101 PEAK Ph3 Dec'26; ALTO Ph3 DME enrolling","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":62.16,"netCashLocal":125.9,"cashPS":2.0254,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":7.01,"base":19.17,"bull":33.77,"psychedelic_bull":49.51},"weightedTP":16.68,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dme"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.fusion.vegf_biopolymer","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fusion","biologic.antibody.fusion.vegf_il6_biopolymer"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":101},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":99}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":148},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":52}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":163},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":37}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":116,"totalTAM":37.75,"totalWTD":17.5085},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 10, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"ksi501","indication":"ksi501_dme","title":"REPORTED: KSI-501 global Ph3 ALTO in diabetic macular edema dosed FIRST PATIENTS Aug 10 2026 -- powered for SUPERIORITY of bispecific KSI-501 (anti-VEGF + anti-IL-6) vs monospecific aflibercept","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":52,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":52,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kodiak-sciences-announces-first-patients-enrolled-in-global-phase-3-alto-trial-of-ksi-501-in-patients-with-diabetic-macular-edema-302847506.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Trial start, not an efficacy event -- pos/apr unchanged on both branches. Indication added to the model 2026-08-11 (previously KSI-501 carried nvAMD only and contributed zero from DME).","failTP":15.3072831,"successTP":17.9576852,"baseTP":16.6796528,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"tarcocimab","indication":"tarc_nvamd","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-28 (HIT): Zenkuda (tarcocimab) DAYBREAK Ph3 nvAMD -- non-inferior BCVA vs aflibercept at yr1 (p=0.0007); 54% on 6-month interval; 0% IOI","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zenkuda-and-tabirafusp-ted-meet-primary-endpoints-in-pivotal-daybreak-trial-in-wamd-302891194.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.766372961,"successTP":29.4984069,"baseTP":16.6796528,"swingPct":172,"successMove":77,"failMove":-95,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":34,"daysOut":null,"materiality":89},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"ksi501","indication":"ksi501_nvamd","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-28 (HIT): KSI-501 (tabirafusp-ted) DAYBREAK Ph3 nvAMD -- non-inferior BCVA vs aflibercept (p=0.0036); anatomic key secondary p<0.0001","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zenkuda-and-tabirafusp-ted-meet-primary-endpoints-in-pivotal-daybreak-trial-in-wamd-302891194.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.3287157,"successTP":18.987167,"baseTP":16.6796528,"swingPct":28,"successMove":14,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tarcocimab","indication":"tarc_nvamd","title":"Zenkuda multi-indication BLA submission (wAMD + DR + RVO; five Ph3 studies) -- guided Q4 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zenkuda-and-tabirafusp-ted-meet-primary-endpoints-in-pivotal-daybreak-trial-in-wamd-302891194.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.30057355,"successTP":30.4621121,"baseTP":16.6796528,"swingPct":70,"successMove":42,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":44},{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-20","asset":"ksi101","indication":"ksi101_mesi","title":"KSI-101 PEAK Ph3 MESI (macular edema secondary to inflammation) topline -- guided December 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zenkuda-and-tabirafusp-ted-meet-primary-endpoints-in-pivotal-daybreak-trial-in-wamd-302891194.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.6133234,"successTP":23.2299793,"baseTP":16.6796528,"swingPct":69,"successMove":39,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.95},"readouts":[{"a":"tarcocimab","ind":"tarc_nvamd","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":6.64974658,"lo":-3.7755092,"hi":12.2408766,"pBeatBest":0.0553,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3},{"a":"ksi501","ind":"ksi501_nvamd","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":7.18864021,"lo":-3.32454236,"hi":12.358265,"pBeatBest":0.0639,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3}]},"KPTI":{"name":"Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.","subtitle":"Xpovio XPO1 oral commercial FY25 $114.9M; SENTRY Ph3 MF HIT SVR35 (TSS50 miss); XPORT-EC endo MISSED PFS Jul'26 | DEFAULT Sep10'26, forbearance to Oct 15, going-concern","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":22.5,"netCashLocal":-187.2,"cashPS":-8.32,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":1.17,"base":5.11,"bull":16.15,"psychedelic_bull":27.45},"weightedTP":4.17,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology.gynecologic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.xpo1_sine","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":54,"totalTAM":31.47895,"totalWTD":20.471575},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026 (EHA/ASCO)","dateSort":"2026-06-14","asset":"xpovio","indication":"xpov_mf","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-14 (MIXED): SENTRY full data EHA + ASCO 2026 -- SVR35 49.8% vs 28% (p<0.0001) + OS HR 0.43 HIT, TSS50 co-primary MISSED","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_note":"EHA late-breaker Jun 14 + ASCO LBA6500 (JCO simul-pub): SENTRY confirmed Mar-26 topline. Met co-primary SVR35 49.8% vs 28.0% (p<0.0001) + favorable OS HR 0.43 + >=20% VAF reductions, BUT second co-primary symptom endpoint (Abs-TSS/TSS50) did NOT reach significance -> MIXED. sNDA still planned H2 26. PoS/apr already maxed (100) in xpov_mf assumptions reflecting de-risked Mar topline; differentiation carried in pen, so left unchanged. Source: prnewswire ASCO/EHA releases + Karyopharm Mar 24 2026 topline.","failTP":0.720156048,"successTP":9.68233648,"baseTP":4.16838078,"swingPct":215,"successMove":132,"failMove":-83,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":132,"daysOut":null,"materiality":61},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"xpovio","indication":"xpov_endo","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-30 (MISS): XPORT-EC-042 endometrial p53-wt maintenance topline MISSED primary PFS endpoint -- mITT n=236 mPFS 12.75 vs 7.43 mo, HR 0.76 (95% CI 0.51-1.12), one-sided p=0.0791; Karyopharm de-prioritising endometrial spend to fund MF launch + debt","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.12734174,"successTP":4.87056386,"baseTP":4.16838078,"swingPct":18,"successMove":17,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-10","asset":"xpovio","indication":"xpov_mf","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-10 (ADVERSE -- DEFAULT): Karyopharm did not pay the $15.8M term-loan principal installment (nor $2.8M Jun-30 note interest); signed a Forbearance Agreement through Oct 15 2026 with +2.00%/yr default interest, $20.0M creditor fee paid in convertible preferred, and 8-K Item 8.01 going-concern / possible-bankruptcy language","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_note":"8-K filed 2026-09-11 (period 2026-09-10), accession 0001193125-26-388621, items 1.01/2.04/3.02/8.01. Forbearance to Oct 15 2026 (extensible); creditors reserve all rights. Minimum $25.0M liquidity covenant may break after Oct 10 2026.","failTP":0.578031732,"successTP":4.03630363,"baseTP":4.16838078,"swingPct":25,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"Sep 17 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-17","asset":"xpovio","indication":"xpov_mf","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-17: ISSUED -- 20,000 convertible perpetual preferred shares ($20.0M creditor fee, $1,000 liquidation preference, conversion price $1.62 = ~12.3M common vs 22.5M outstanding). Conversion capped at 19.99% of voting power until stockholder consent by Mar 15 2027 (issued Sep 17 2026 in satisfaction of the forbearance fee)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"8-K accession 0001193125-26-395517 (issuance Sep 17 2026) + 8-K 0001193125-26-388621","_note":"Issued Sep 17 2026 per 8-K. sharesOut still deliberately NOT bumped: the preferred is not common stock, conversion is capped at 19.99% of voting power until stockholder consent (deadline Mar 15 2027), and the economic dilution is carried by val.dil (base 70%, mega_bear 90%) from the 2026-08-10 re-rate -- bumping sharesOut too would double-count. Revisit if stockholder consent passes.","_outcome":"completed","failTP":0.578031732,"successTP":4.03630363,"baseTP":4.16838078,"swingPct":25,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"xpovio","indication":"xpov_mf","title":"Forbearance expiry (EXISTENTIAL): forbearance period ends Oct 15 2026 -- needs new funding or a strategic transaction extending runway, else the 8-K's stated path is bankruptcy protection, asset liquidation or ceasing operations","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_note":"Source: 8-K filed 2026-09-11 (period 2026-09-10) items 1.01/2.04/8.01.","failTP":0.578031732,"successTP":4.03630363,"baseTP":4.16838078,"swingPct":25,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"xpovio","indication":"xpov_mf","title":"Myelofibrosis sNDA submission (pending FDA TSS50 alignment)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.578031732,"successTP":4.03630363,"baseTP":4.16838078,"swingPct":17,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12}],"salesM2025":115,"lenses":{"comparable":6.88}},"KRKG":{"name":"Krka, d.d., Novo mesto","subtitle":"Slovenian vertically-integrated generics leader (€2,041M FY25, +7%); 20% net margins, all-time high net income €401M | Cardio (perindopril/valsartan/rosuvastatin) + GI + CNS chronic-disease portfolio","currency":"EUR","country":"SI","region":"EUROPE.OTHER","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":true,"sharesOut":30.31,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.generics.cardiovascular_diversified","_diversified","_diversified.generics","_diversified.generics.gi_ppi","_diversified.generics.cns_diversified","_diversified.generics.oncology_diversified","_diversified.consumer.cee_diversified","_diversified.consumer"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":99},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":50},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":35},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":35},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":35},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":26},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":99},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":50},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":35},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":35},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":35},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":26},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":43.27898,"totalWTD":43.27898},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":2040},"KROS":{"name":"Keros Therapeutics","subtitle":"Post-Takeda elritercept license (Dec'24 $200M+$1.1B milestones ex-China; $375M capital return); KER-065 rinvatercept DMD Ph2 Q2'26 (Orphan), ALS Ph2 H2'26 (Healey MGH); cash $282M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":19.83,"netCashLocal":257.6,"cashPS":12.9904,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.78,"bear":9.83,"base":14.71,"bull":19.11,"psychedelic_bull":22.97},"weightedTP":13.54,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","oncology.myeloid.mds","oncology","oncology.myeloid"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.activin_alk47","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.activin_iia"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":144},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":72},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":28},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":28},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":28}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":181},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":91},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":9}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":192},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":96},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":110,"totalTAM":12.393,"totalWTD":5.90121},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"elritercept","indication":"elr_mds","title":"Elritercept Ph3 RENEW MDS enrollment milestone update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":72,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://ir.kerostx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/keros-therapeutics-announces-first-patient-dosing-phase-3-renew/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.71099142,"successTP":16.8804499,"baseTP":13.5402791,"swingPct":16,"successMove":8,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"elritercept","indication":"elr_mds","title":"Elritercept Ph3 RENEW MDS topline readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.kerostx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.54855255,"successTP":17.4732935,"baseTP":13.5402791,"swingPct":81,"successMove":29,"failMove":-52,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":55}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":9.73}},"KRYS":{"name":"Krystal Biotech","subtitle":"VYJUVEK: $389M FY25 -> $235.6M 1H26 (Q2 $119.2M, +24% y/y, 95% GM); net income $110.7M 1H26; cash+inv $1.1B; KB803 IOLITE topline 4Q26; KB801/KB407/KB111 readouts; Spain+Italy launches YE26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":29.5,"netCashLocal":1100,"cashPS":37.2881,"tps":{"mega_bear":95.46,"bear":132.78,"base":192.54,"bull":277,"psychedelic_bull":376.87},"weightedTP":209.05,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","dermatology","dermatology.genodermatosis","ophthalmology.surface.deb_ocular","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.surface","ophthalmology.surface.neurotrophic_keratitis","respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","respiratory","respiratory.genetic","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","dermatology.genodermatosis.hailey_hailey"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.hsv.gene_replacement","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.hsv"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":96},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":40},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":8},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.deb_ocular","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.neurotrophic_keratitis","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.hailey_hailey","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":86},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":81},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":43},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":41},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.deb_ocular","purity":15},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.neurotrophic_keratitis","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.hailey_hailey","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.epidermolysis_bullosa","purity":142},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis","purity":71},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.deb_ocular","purity":31},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":26},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.neurotrophic_keratitis","purity":20},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.genodermatosis.hailey_hailey","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":60,"rarePurityWtd":95,"optionality":438,"totalTAM":34.665785,"totalWTD":6.44671846},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"kb407","indication":"cf","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-03, superseded): CORAL-2 CF expansion folded into CORAL-3 repeat-dose study (~5 modulator-ineligible/refractory pts, weekly dosing, monthly FEV1 over 6mo; interim before YE26)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"No CORAL-2 expansion dataset was delivered. After the positive CORAL-1 Cohort 3 interim (Jan 8 2026: wild-type CFTR confirmed in 6/6 patients, 29.4-42.1% expression, >29% of conducting-airway cells transduced), Krystal aligned with FDA and moved to the CORAL-3 repeat-dosing study. Path change, not a data miss -- no pos/apr change; the CORAL-3 catalyst (2026-12-31) carries the read.","_outcomeSource":"https://ir.krystalbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/krystal-biotech-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-and","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":207.86203,"successTP":209.836746,"baseTP":209.053744,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"kb111","indication":"hhd","title":"REPORTED (2026-08-03, hit): KB111 HALITE-1 Hailey-Hailey Ph1/2 enrolling and dosing (~7 pts, weekly x 12wk; interim data before YE26; FDA Fast Track Jan 2026)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":55,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.krystalbio.com/node/11136/pdf","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company expects to initiate registrational study in 2H 2026 after completing development and validation of HHD-specific evaluation scale in 1H 2026","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Q2 2026 results (Aug 3 2026): HALITE-1 open-label single-arm study has started enrolling and dosing patients; ~7 patients expected with interim results before year end; FDA meeting to follow to enable a 2027 registrational start. Applied pre-declared success_pos 55 / success_apr 55 to base (was 50/55).","_outcomeSource":"https://ir.krystalbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/krystal-biotech-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-and","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":209.039864,"successTP":209.061901,"baseTP":209.053744,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"4Q 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"kb803","indication":"ocular_deb","title":"KB803 ocular DEB (IOLITE) Phase 3 registrational topline -- enrollment complete Apr 2026 (16 pts), topline reiterated 4Q 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001711279/000171127926000058/a2q26-ex991xpressrelease.htm","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Q2 2026 results (Aug 2026): IOLITE on track for a top-line data readout in 4Q 2026","failTP":202.534254,"successTP":211.513244,"baseTP":209.053744,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kb407","indication":"cf","title":"CORAL-3 CF FDA alignment H2 2026 + registrational study init 2027","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":50,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/krystal-biotech-stock-price-target-raised-to-288-from-272-at-bofa-93CH-4439086","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Expected alignment on CORAL-3 registrational study design with FDA in Q1 2026","failTP":208.459936,"successTP":209.606678,"baseTP":209.053744,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":16,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kb801","indication":"nk","title":"KB801 neurotrophic keratitis EMERALD-1 enrollment COMPLETION (expanded to 60 pts) -- topline 2027, not 2026","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":70,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001711279/000171127926000058/a2q26-ex991xpressrelease.htm","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Q2 2026 results: complete EMERALD-1 enrollment before year-end 2026; the prior \"registrational topline before end 2026\" reading was stale for the expanded 60-patient study","failTP":207.666566,"successTP":210.26307,"baseTP":209.053744,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":46,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"kb801","indication":"nk","title":"KB801 neurotrophic keratitis EMERALD-1 registrational topline (60 pts; follows YE26 enrollment completion)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Krystal Biotech Q2 2026 8-K Ex-99.1","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001711279/000171127926000058/a2q26-ex991xpressrelease.htm","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Enrollment completes before YE 2026 on the expanded 60-patient EMERALD-1, so the registrational readout falls in 2027; carries the success/fail values originally authored on the 2026 catalyst","failTP":204.56208,"successTP":211.51438,"baseTP":209.053744,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":389,"lenses":{"comparable":167.81,"peRel":1.0782}},"KURA":{"name":"Kura Oncology, Inc.","subtitle":"KOMZIFTI (ziftomenib) menin NPM1m AML full FDA approval Nov13'25 -- Q2'26 net product rev $9.1M (+57% q/q), ~115 new starts, menin-class share leader | KOMET-017 pivotal 2028 | Cash $620M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":88.76,"netCashLocal":519,"cashPS":5.8472,"tps":{"mega_bear":5,"bear":9.53,"base":15.28,"bull":20.99,"psychedelic_bull":25.84},"weightedTP":15.86,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.aml.npm1m","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.menin","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme.farnesyl_transferase","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":113},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.npm1m","purity":7}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.npm1m","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.npm1m","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":14,"rarePurityWtd":60,"optionality":316,"totalTAM":21.7853,"totalWTD":5.23213094},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-30","asset":"ko_2806","indication":"ko_pdac","title":"REPORTED: ASCO 2026 -- Darlifarnib + adagrasib Ph1a FIT-001: PDAC ORR 67%, NSCLC 50%, 77% tumor shrinkage overall (94% in KRASi-naive); positions darlifarnib as foundational KRAS-combo platform","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":45,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/26/3300885/35186/en/Kura-Oncology-Reports-Strong-Clinical-Activity-and-Safety-with-Darlifarnib-Adagrasib-in-KRAS-G12C-Mutated-Solid-Tumors.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Phase 1a FIT-001: 67% ORR PDAC, 50% NSCLC, 77% overall tumor shrinkage in KRAS-G12C mutant solid tumors with adagrasib combo. Very strong for late-line PDAC where ORR is typically <10%. Validates darlifarnib as foundational KRAS-combo platform.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":15.5416737,"successTP":16.2411838,"baseTP":15.8589617,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":11,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-20","asset":"ziftomenib","indication":"zift_npm1","title":"ESMO 2026 -- KOMET-007 ziftomenib + venetoclax/azacitidine combo data (NPM1m + KMT2A AML)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"high","failTP":10.9426294,"successTP":17.1278594,"baseTP":15.8589617,"swingPct":39,"successMove":8,"failMove":-31,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ziftomenib","indication":"zift_npm1","title":"KOMZIFTI FY26 launch ramp -- KURA share net product revenue (Q4 update + guidance)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"KURA Q4'25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.5108263,"successTP":17.1278594,"baseTP":15.8589617,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"FY 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"ziftomenib","indication":"zift_frontline","title":"KOMET-017 frontline AML pivotal topline (key binary)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"KURA pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.3736045,"successTP":17.0886742,"baseTP":15.8589617,"swingPct":36,"successMove":8,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":15.93}},"KYMR":{"name":"Kymera Therapeutics","subtitle":"Oral STAT6 degrader KT-621: BROADEN2 Ph2b AD enrollment COMPLETE, topline pulled forward to YE'26 (from mid-'27); BREADTH Ph2b asthma | IRAK4 w/ Sanofi | CDK2 w/ Gilead | IRF5 KT-579 Ph1","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":99,"netCashLocal":1550,"cashPS":15.6566,"tps":{"mega_bear":14.31,"bear":16.45,"base":21.01,"bull":31.19,"psychedelic_bull":45.32},"weightedTP":23.75,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_degrader.molecular_glue","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_degrader"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":58},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":53},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":41},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":32},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":32},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":73},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":96},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":92},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":92},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":338,"totalTAM":42.3865,"totalWTD":9.68451065},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-07-01","asset":"irak4","indication":"irak4","title":"REPORTED: KT-485/SAR447971 IRAK4 degrader Phase 1 start with Sanofi","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":50,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.kymeratx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kymera-therapeutics-outlines-key-2026-objectives-and-strategy/","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company confirmed Sanofi expects to start healthy volunteer Phase 1 trial in 2026 with first dosing milestone","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"First participant dosed June 9, 2026 in Sanofi-run Phase 1 (NCT07629336) of KT-485/SAR447971 (2nd-gen oral IRAK4 degrader) in healthy volunteers + hidradenitis suppurativa patients; triggered a $20M milestone to Kymera (of up to $975M total). Non-binary program-start milestone -- no scenario change.","_source2":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/09/3308699/0/en/kymera-therapeutics-announces-first-participant-dosed-in-phase-1-trial-of-oral-irak4-degrader-kt-485-and-milestone-achievement-under-sanofi-collaboration.html","failTP":23.6732356,"successTP":23.7931554,"baseTP":23.7487678,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"kt579","indication":"irf5","title":"KT-579 IRF5 degrader Phase 1 healthy-volunteer data (date rolled from Sep 1'26 -- no readout PR located as of Sep 1 2026; still guided H2'26)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":45,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.kymeratx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kymera-therapeutics-outlines-key-2026-objectives-and-strategy/","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company initiated dosing in KT-579 Phase 1 healthy volunteer trial with data expected in 2H26 per January 2026 guidance","failTP":23.6081262,"successTP":23.8051902,"baseTP":23.7487678,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"kt621","indication":"stat6","title":"KT-621 BROADEN2 Ph2b atopic dermatitis TOPLINE -- enrollment COMPLETE ahead of plan, readout ACCELERATED by ~6 months to year-end 2026 (prior guidance mid-2027). ~200 pts age 12-75, 3 doses vs placebo, primary = % change from baseline in EASI at Week 16. BREADTH Ph2b asthma still enrolling","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"failTP":17.5912673,"successTP":25.5621711,"baseTP":23.7487678,"swingPct":34,"successMove":8,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":23.21},"readouts":[{"a":"kt621","ind":"stat6","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","endpoint":"easi75_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.3876007,"lo":10.7764855,"hi":91.0235548,"pBeatBest":0.08525,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 30mg","bestValue":79.7},{"a":"kt579","ind":"irf5","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.4136031,"lo":-15,"hi":56.3810246,"pBeatBest":0.08445,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"KYTX":{"name":"Kyverna Therapeutics","subtitle":"Miv-cel (KYV-101 CD19 CAR-T) ROLLING BLA initiated May'26 SPS, completion Q4'26 -- launch 2027 · KYSA-6 gMG Ph3 FPI Dec'25","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":57,"netCashLocal":174.5,"cashPS":3.0614,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.97,"bear":2.81,"base":4.11,"bull":4.29,"psychedelic_bull":5.51},"weightedTP":3.86,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.sps","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology.demyelinating","_platform.cell_therapy_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_cd19_autoimmune","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_cd19","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":108},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":54},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":30},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":29},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.sps","purity":4},{"area":"_platform.cell_therapy_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":63},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":60},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":54},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":43},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":30},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.sps","purity":24},{"area":"_platform.cell_therapy_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.sps","purity":92},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":63},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":39},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":17},{"area":"_platform.cell_therapy_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":17,"rarePurityWtd":43,"optionality":526,"totalTAM":43.246,"totalWTD":6.9105654},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 12, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-12","asset":"kyv101","indication":"sps","title":"REPORTED: KYV-101 (miv-cel) rolling BLA initiated May 12 2026 for SPS (KYSA-8 pivotal sufficient per FDA; RMAT priority review; completion Q4 2026)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":85,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.kyvernatx.com/news-releases","_addedAt":"2026-04-27T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guided BLA filing 1H 2026 post KYSA-8 SPS data","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Rolling BLA submission to FDA for KYV-101 (miv-cel) in SPS initiated May 12 2026 following positive pre-BLA meeting; first CAR-T BLA for autoimmune disease; FDA also requested additional natural history analysis","_outcomeSource":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/Kyverna-Q1-2026-results","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3.55582811,"successTP":3.9478514,"baseTP":3.85874284,"swingPct":2,"successMove":0,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"kyv101","indication":"sps","title":"Rolling BLA SPS submission COMPLETION (last module filed; PDUFA clock starts)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://ir.kyvernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kyverna-therapeutics-announces-initiation-rolling-sps-bla","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guided rolling BLA completion Q4 2026 at JPM Jan 2026 and reconfirmed at Q1 2026 update","failTP":3.73443336,"successTP":4.02566748,"baseTP":3.85874284,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":91,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"kyv101","indication":"ln","title":"KYSA-1 Ph2 lupus nephritis update -- not addressed in Q2 PR (Aug 11 2026); rolled from Q3 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":60,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.kyvernatx.com/news-releases","_addedAt":"2026-04-27T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company expects KYSA-1 LN expansion data through 2026","failTP":3.71282518,"successTP":3.93910819,"baseTP":3.85874284,"swingPct":6,"successMove":2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-08-15","asset":"kyv101","indication":"sps","title":"Miv-cel SPS FDA PDUFA decision / approval -- launch 2027","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://ir.kyvernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kyverna-therapeutics-provides-corporate-update-and-outlines-2026","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Standard 6-10mo PDUFA cycle from Q4 2026 BLA completion; Priority Review likely given RMAT + SPS unmet need; company targets 2027 launch","failTP":3.54719803,"successTP":3.95979653,"baseTP":3.85874284,"swingPct":11,"successMove":3,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"kyv101","indication":"ms","title":"KYSA-7 Phase 2 MS data","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":50,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.kyvernatx.com/news-releases","_addedAt":"2026-04-27T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"KYSA-7 progressive MS Ph2 enrolling 2025-26","failTP":3.73268355,"successTP":3.92640087,"baseTP":3.85874284,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-12-15","asset":"kyv101","indication":"gmg","title":"KYSA-6 Phase 3 gMG topline (FPI Dec 2025; 14 sites across 3 geos enrolling)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.kyvernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kyverna-therapeutics-provides-corporate-update-and-outlines-2026","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"First patient enrolled Dec 2025; Ph3 enrollment realistic timeline ~24-36mo for CAR-T trials; topline likely 2028-2029 not Q1 2027 (was stale)","failTP":3.64001925,"successTP":4.04101853,"baseTP":3.85874284,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.31},"readouts":[{"a":"kyv101","ind":"ln","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":6.87640025,"lo":-15,"hi":48.5093792,"pBeatBest":0.03785,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"kyv101","ind":"gmg","ds":"2028-12-15","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.08753018,"lo":-0.716623853,"hi":2.85179352,"pBeatBest":0.05845,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59},{"a":"kyv101","ind":"ms","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","endpoint":"arr_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":11.0794796,"lo":-18.7520424,"hi":84.2646745,"pBeatBest":0.0701,"bestDrug":"natalizumab","bestValue":68}]},"KZIA":{"name":"Kazia Therapeutics Limited","subtitle":"Paxalisib PI3K/mTOR: GBM AGILE HIT Jul24 (OS 15.5 vs 11.9mo), own Ph3 in design; breast (TNBC/HR+) now funded lead | Aug'26 $40M raise + up to $80M warrants | EVT-801","currency":"USD","country":"AU","region":"OCEANIA","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":13.98,"netCashLocal":83,"cashPS":5.9371,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.12,"bear":5.18,"base":11.44,"bull":21.08,"psychedelic_bull":31.8},"weightedTP":11.43,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.brain.gbm","oncology","oncology.brain","oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.tnbc","oncology.brain.h3k27m_diffuse_midline_glioma","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_mtor_brain_penetrant","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.vegfr3"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":64},{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.brain.h3k27m_diffuse_midline_glioma","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.brain.h3k27m_diffuse_midline_glioma","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":169},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.2l_plus","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.brain.h3k27m_diffuse_midline_glioma","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":614,"totalTAM":8.8933,"totalWTD":1.245432},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"paxalisib","indication":"pax_gbm","title":"Paxalisib FDA Type C meeting -- GBM pivotal pathway alignment","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_note":"This is the follow-up Type C meeting Kazia announced (2025-10-27) it would request to discuss GBM-AGILE OS data (15.54 vs 11.89 mo in unmethylated) and a potential Project FrontRunner conditional-approval / pre-NDA confirmatory Phase 3 path. Distinct from the Dec-2024 Type C meeting (already resolved: FDA said OS supports traditional not accelerated approval, aligned on pivotal design). Outcome of the follow-up meeting unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled ~1 quarter.","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.93382575,"successTP":3.94057886,"baseTP":11.4256601,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-33,"failMove":-41,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-39,"daysOut":null,"materiality":38},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"paxalisib","indication":"pax_breast","title":"Paxalisib Ph1b breast cancer efficacy + biomarker readout","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.1592981,"successTP":12.7898664,"baseTP":11.4256601,"swingPct":16,"successMove":8,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"paxalisib","indication":"pax_gbm","title":"Paxalisib own Ph3 GBM pivotal initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.93382575,"successTP":3.94057886,"baseTP":11.4256601,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-20,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-22,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"paxalisib","indication":"pax_breast","title":"Paxalisib Stage IV TNBC readout (Series A warrant trigger, $17.825/ADS)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kazia-therapeutics-limited-announces-oversubscribed-closing-of-up-to-120-million-public-offering-302865390.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.1395855,"successTP":12.6090698,"baseTP":11.4256601,"swingPct":21,"successMove":10,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":11.4}},"LABB":{"name":"Genomma Lab Internacional SAB de CV","subtitle":"Pan-LatAm OTC + personal-care brand house (MXN ~17B FY25, -4% LFL); 23.4% EBITDA margin (+10bps); MXN 1.1B productivity savings unlocked","currency":"MXN","country":"MX","region":"AMERICAS.LATAM","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":974,"netCashLocal":-5000,"cashPS":-5.1335,"tps":{"mega_bear":12.32,"bear":21.05,"base":38.5,"bull":64.68,"psychedelic_bull":99.59},"weightedTP":44.17,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.consumer.latam_consumer","_diversified","_diversified.consumer","_diversified.consumer.us_consumer"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"labb_otc","indication":"labb_otc_div","title":"Mexico OTC consumer recovery + new herbal SKUs (Valeriana/Pasiflora/Melisa)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Genomma FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":44.1735113,"successTP":44.1735113,"baseTP":44.1735113,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":980,"lenses":{"comparable":54.66,"peRel":1.3225}},"LBRX":{"name":"LB Pharmaceuticals Inc.","subtitle":"LB-102 (deutsch-amisulpride) D2/D3/5-HT7 benzamide for schizophrenia: NOVA-2 Ph3 topline H2 2027 + bipolar dep Ph2 Q1 2028 + MDD Ph2 2027 | Cash ~$395M into Q2 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":32.97,"netCashLocal":473,"cashPS":14.3464,"tps":{"mega_bear":12.42,"bear":15.87,"base":22.49,"bull":28.03,"psychedelic_bull":31.92},"weightedTP":22.42,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","cns.psychiatry.depression"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_d2_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":72},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":56},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":36},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":36}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":72},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":56},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":36},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":36}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":122},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":60},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":9}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":74,"totalTAM":33.8325,"totalWTD":19.48752},"catalysts":[{"date":"Early 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-15","asset":"lb102","indication":"lb102_mdd","title":"LB-102 MDD adjunctive Ph2 trial initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":21.3496983,"successTP":21.7166136,"baseTP":22.4164551,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"lb102","indication":"lb102_schiz","title":"LB-102 NOVA-2 Ph3 acute schizophrenia topline (PANSS) -- KEY BINARY; PULLED FORWARD to H1 2027 (from H2 2027) on faster-than-expected enrollment","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":90,"_note":"Timing-only change, no assumption move. LB Pharmaceuticals guided on 2026-07-22 that NOVA-2 topline moves from H2 2027 to H1 2027, with the pre-NDA FDA meeting to follow in H2 2027, driven by faster-than-anticipated enrollment (~460 patients, 25 US sites). Faster enrollment is mildly supportive of site/investigator engagement but says nothing about efficacy, so pos/apr held. Source: LB Pharmaceuticals PR 2026-07-22 (globenewswire 3331267).","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/22/3331267/0/en/lb-pharmaceuticals-announces-accelerated-timing-of-topline-results-from-the-phase-3-nova-2-trial-of-lb-102-in-schizophrenia.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.5457119,"successTP":24.0335603,"baseTP":22.4164551,"swingPct":24,"successMove":7,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":22.43},"readouts":[{"a":"lb102","ind":"lb102_schiz","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":7.27115499,"lo":-1.56552321,"hi":14.7734139,"pBeatBest":0.12235,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12}]},"LCTX":{"name":"Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Allogeneic cell therapy: OpRegen (RPE) GA/dry-AMD Ph2a w/ Roche/Genentech (3-yr vision-improvement data); OPC1 SCI Ph1/2a (DOSED); ANP1 hearing (Demant) | cash ~$51M to Q3'28 | pre-rev 253M sh","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":252.91,"netCashLocal":50.8,"cashPS":0.2009,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.1,"bear":0.14,"base":0.3,"bull":0.62,"psychedelic_bull":1.14},"weightedTP":0.36,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.ga","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","cns.injury.spinal_cord_injury","cns","cns.injury","_platform.cell_therapy_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.rpe_retinal","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.opc_glial","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.neural_discovery"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":148},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":74},{"area":"cns.injury.spinal_cord_injury","purity":52},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":26},{"area":"_platform.cell_therapy_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":174},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":87},{"area":"cns.injury.spinal_cord_injury","purity":26},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":13},{"area":"_platform.cell_therapy_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.injury.spinal_cord_injury","purity":183},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":91},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":17},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":9},{"area":"_platform.cell_therapy_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":26,"rarePurityWtd":13,"optionality":759,"totalTAM":15.131,"totalWTD":1.760847},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"opc1","indication":"sci","title":"OPC1 in vivo comparability package to FDA (newly-manufactured cells into DOSED)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/lineage-cell-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2025-financial-results-and-provides-business-update","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.226897831,"successTP":0.496449093,"baseTP":0.363716857,"swingPct":37,"successMove":18,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":6,"expectedReturn":-17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"opc1","indication":"sci","title":"OPC1 DOSED chronic SCI patient follow-up + in vivo comparability package to FDA (ROLLED from Q3 2026: the Q2 business update landed Aug 6 2026 with no chronic 1-year OPC1 data disclosed)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":22,"success_apr":45,"_source":"Lineage Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-06 (businesswire / LCTX 8-K); Q1 2026 call 2026-05-15","_confidence":"medium","_note":"Q2 2026 reported Aug 6 2026: revenue $1.1M (vs $2.8M LY, lower Roche collaboration revenue), cash into Q3 2028. DOSED delivery-device experience remains clean (no unexpected procedure/product/device AEs, no design changes). Company guides to presenting an in vivo comparability package to FDA later in 2026 to introduce newly manufactured cells into DOSED. No efficacy data released, so no assumption change -- date rolled only.","failTP":0.226897831,"successTP":0.475703903,"baseTP":0.363716857,"swingPct":69,"successMove":31,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":-28,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"opregen","indication":"ga","title":"OpRegen GAlette Ph2a data (Genentech-controlled; no LCTX timeline -- speculative)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://lineagecell.com/products-pipeline/opregen/","_confidence":"low","failTP":0.268338861,"successTP":0.466577703,"baseTP":0.363716857,"swingPct":54,"successMove":28,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.32},"readouts":[{"a":"opregen","ind":"ga","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","endpoint":"ga_growth_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":4.43906228,"lo":-9.08859609,"hi":29.201784,"pBeatBest":0.08545,"bestDrug":"pegcetacoplan monthly","bestValue":22}]},"LEGN":{"name":"Legend Biotech","subtitle":"CARVYKTI Q2'26 net trade $657M (+10% QoQ, record) · FY25 $1.9B · Frontline MM expansion · anito-cel entry 2027 · In vivo CAR-T","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":193.8,"netCashLocal":808.6,"cashPS":4.1723,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.53,"bear":16.57,"base":28.15,"bull":52.69,"psychedelic_bull":85.18},"weightedTP":34.42,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_bcma","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_cd19","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.invivo.car_t_lnp","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.invivo"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":87},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":87},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":98},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":98},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.1l","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":72,"totalTAM":29.1887,"totalWTD":16.9480395},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-15","asset":"invivo","indication":"invivo_onc","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-15 (HIT): LB2501 in vivo CD19/CD20 dual-targeting CAR-T first-in-human Ph1 data at EHA 2026 -- 12 heavily pretreated r/r B-NHL patients, single infusion WITHOUT lymphodepletion, dose-dependent in vivo expansion; at the higher dose 100% ORR and 83.3% CR with all responses ongoing at cutoff. No DLTs, no SAEs, no ICANS, no deaths; IRR/CRS Grade 1-2 managed without glucocorticoids","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":30,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/LEGN/legend-biotech-highlights-recent-business-updates-at-44th-annual-j-p-8kdjhm3k3788.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"First-in-human in vivo dosing completed; in vivo readouts expected 2H 2026 per J.P. Morgan presentation","failTP":34.4060808,"successTP":34.4214305,"baseTP":34.4175092,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-01","asset":"lucar","indication":"nhl","title":"RESOLVED (already reported ASH Dec 2025, encoded in stage): LUCAR allogeneic CAR-T first-in-human data -- no further update guided as of Q2'26","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":30,"success_apr":45,"failTP":34.4079684,"successTP":34.4224715,"baseTP":34.4175092,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"carv_1l","indication":"mm_1l","title":"CARTITUDE-5/6 frontline MM Phase 3 readout -- guided to 2027 per the Q2'26 update (slipped from H2'26; both studies enrolled, J&J-sponsored)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"failTP":32.4891653,"successTP":35.8915699,"baseTP":34.4175092,"swingPct":10,"successMove":4,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":1060,"lenses":{"comparable":34.61},"readouts":[{"a":"invivo","ind":"invivo_onc","ds":"2026-06-15","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.8679484,"lo":4.61867574,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.2434,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73}]},"LENZ":{"name":"LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"VIZZ (LNZ100 aceclidine) FDA Jul25 -- ONLY aceclidine presbyopia drop (vs Vuity pilocarpine limited adoption); Q1 26 $1.7M, +19% scripts; EU/UK MAA H2 26 | Cash $258M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":31.35,"netCashLocal":258.4,"cashPS":8.2424,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.21,"bear":17.45,"base":21.98,"bull":23.67,"psychedelic_bull":24.71},"weightedTP":18.96,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.refractive.presbyopia","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.refractive"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_aceclidine","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive.presbyopia","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive.presbyopia","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive.presbyopia","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.refractive","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1.997,"totalWTD":1.997},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"vizz","indication":"vizz_presby","title":"REPORTED: COMPLETED: VIZZ sales force expansion 88->117 territories fully deployed (Q2 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Q1 2026 report (May 11 2026): LENZ expanding sales force from 88 to 117 territories to broaden ECP reach, guided to be fully deployed by end of Q2 2026. Deployment window (end Q2 2026) has now passed as of 2026-07-06; treated as completed per guidance (no separate deployment-completion press release; confirm on Q2 2026 earnings).","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/11/3292325/0/en/lenz-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-recent-corporate-highlights.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.04979832,"successTP":7.93195066,"baseTP":18.9560948,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-17,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"vizz","indication":"vizz_presby","title":"VIZZ EU EMA MAA submission + UK MHRA submission","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":6.04979832,"successTP":7.93195066,"baseTP":18.9560948,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-29,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-29,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"vizz","indication":"vizz_presby","title":"VIZZ potential EU approval decision","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","failTP":7.47065285,"successTP":22.4889282,"baseTP":18.9560948,"swingPct":40,"successMove":10,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32}],"salesM2025":2,"lenses":{"comparable":14.08}},"LGND":{"name":"Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.","subtitle":"Royalty aggregator: FILSPARI (Travere IgAN) + Ohtuvayre (Verona COPD) + Capvaxive (MRK pneumococcal) + XOMA Royalty (acq Jul 2026, 200+ assets) + Qarziba + Zelsuvmi + Captisol","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":19.68,"netCashLocal":-79,"cashPS":-4.0142,"tps":{"mega_bear":28.77,"bear":75.95,"base":201.48,"bull":433.18,"psychedelic_bull":930.95},"weightedTP":268.41,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.viral.molluscum","infectious_disease.viral","oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.endothelin_at1","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.enzyme.pde3_4","small_molecule.enzyme","vaccine.protein_subunit.pneumococcal","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","small_molecule.redox.no_donor_topical","small_molecule.redox","formulation_modifier.delivery_enhancer.cyclodextrin","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.delivery_enhancer"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":129},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":64},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":36},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":32},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":18},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.molluscum","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":129},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":64},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":36},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":32},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":18},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.molluscum","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":159},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":80},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":26},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":13},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":13},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.molluscum","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":19,"rarePurityWtd":19,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":38.1631,"totalWTD":38.1631},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 14 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-07-14","asset":"captisol","indication":"captisol_div","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-14: XOMA Royalty acquisition CLOSED at $39.00/sh cash (~$739M equity value plus a litigation CVR) -- combined portfolio now 200+ royalty assets; FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to ~$9.00-9.50 on cost synergies","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Ligand PR 2026-07-14 + Q2 2026 results","_confidence":"medium","failTP":268.411484,"successTP":268.411484,"baseTP":268.411484,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"filspari_royalty","indication":"filspari_igan","title":"FILSPARI IgAN royalty stream FY26 step-up","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Travere/Ligand","_confidence":"high","failTP":268.411484,"successTP":268.411484,"baseTP":268.411484,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":272,"lenses":{"comparable":88.27,"peRel":1.001}},"LKFT":{"name":"Lakefront Biotherapeutics (formerly Galapagos GLPG)","subtitle":"Ex-Galapagos: GLPG3667 oral TYK2 DM Ph2 MET / SLE MISSED (options under review); CAR-T wound down; gamgertamig BCMAxCD3 Ph1b AIHA/ITP/pemphigus, 20-23% royalty (Gilead)","currency":"USD","country":"BE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":65.9,"netCashLocal":2418.7,"cashPS":36.7026,"tps":{"mega_bear":34.93,"bear":35.69,"base":37.2,"bull":38.57,"psychedelic_bull":40.53},"weightedTP":36.9,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pemphigus_vulgaris","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.tyk2","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_cd19_autologous","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_bcma_autologous","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bcma_cd3","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":64},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":48},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":32},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":24},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pemphigus_vulgaris","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":108},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":54},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":42},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":27},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":25},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":14},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pemphigus_vulgaris","purity":14},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":113},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":50},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":25},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":23},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":15},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.pemphigus_vulgaris","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":24,"rarePurityWtd":32,"optionality":385,"totalTAM":38.4296,"totalWTD":7.9206465},"catalysts":[{"date":"Dec 18 2025","dateSort":"2025-12-18","asset":"glpg3667","indication":"glpg3667_dm","title":"REPORTED 2025-12-18: GLPG3667 Phase 3-enabling topline -- dermatomyositis (GALARISSO) MET primary endpoint; SLE (GALACELA) MISSED (also missed at wk 48). Company evaluating all strategic options for GLPG3667","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://investors.glpg.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"mixed","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/12/18/3208166/0/en/Galapagos-Announces-Topline-Results-from-Two-Phase-3-Enabling-Studies-with-Selective-TYK2-Inhibitor-GLPG3667-in-Dermatomyositis-and-Systemic-Lupus-Erythematosus.html","failTP":36.3565176,"successTP":37.1143799,"baseTP":36.8984327,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"gamgertamig","indication":"gam_waiha","title":"Gamgertamig registrational studies expected to start (AIHA/ITP; Gilead leads registrational development, costs shared 50/50 thereafter) + proof-of-concept basket studies in additional autoimmune indications","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/10/3342175/0/en/lakefront-biotherapeutics-reports-half-year-2026-financial-results-and-provides-business-update.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":36.7746535,"successTP":36.7847786,"baseTP":36.8984327,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":37.18,"eeRel":0.2181,"peRel":8.0574}},"LLY":{"name":"Eli Lilly","subtitle":"Mounjaro+Zepbound $40B+ run-rate · Foundayo FDA approved · FY26 guide raised to $85-87B · AtaiBeckley closed Sep 2026 · retatrutide BLA Q1 2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":941.36,"netCashLocal":-44842,"cashPS":-47.6353,"tps":{"mega_bear":448.72,"bear":591.45,"base":770.52,"bull":949,"psychedelic_bull":1231.21},"weightedTP":795.22,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","nephrology.ckd.dkd","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","respiratory.sleep.osa","respiratory","respiratory.sleep","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric","cns.pain.migraine","cns","cns.pain","oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.neurodegeneration","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","oncology.tissue_agnostic","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip_dual","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","small_molecule.kinase.cdk46","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.dulaglutide","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il17","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.transporter.sglt2","small_molecule.transporter","peptide.hormone_analog.insulin_rapid","small_molecule.kinase.jak1_2","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_vegfr2","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cgrp","small_molecule.kinase.btk_noncovalent","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il13","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_amyloid_beta","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23","small_molecule.kinase.ret","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.glp1_oral","small_molecule.gpcr","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip_gcgr_triple","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.serd","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.gpcr.psychedelic_5meo_dmt_intranasal"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":90},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":65},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.dkd","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.sleep.osa","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.sleep","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":91},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":67},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":35},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.dkd","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":1},{"area":"respiratory.sleep.osa","purity":1},{"area":"respiratory.sleep","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":1},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":61},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.trd","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":39},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.dkd","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.sleep.osa","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.sleep","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":9,"totalTAM":961.7465,"totalWTD":884.66572},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-01","asset":"orforglipron","indication":"orfo_obesity","title":"REPORTED: Orforglipron (Foundayo) FDA APPROVED obesity (Apr 1 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"LLY pipeline / clinicaltrials.gov","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":785.062378,"successTP":797.141426,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-21","asset":"retatrutide","indication":"reta_obesity","title":"REPORTED: Retatrutide TRIUMPH-1 Ph3 obesity POSITIVE (28.3% WL @80wk, May 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"LLY pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Phase 3 met primary weight loss endpoint with competitive efficacy and tolerability, but results slightly underwhelmed high market expectations","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":787.045423,"successTP":796.875233,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":87,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"zepbound","indication":"tirz_hfpef","title":"REPORTED: Tirzepatide HFpEF FDA application withdrawn (confirmatory trial required)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://conscienhealth.org/2025/05/lilly-withdraws-tirzepatide-application-to-fda-for-heart-failure/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Lilly withdrew the U.S. tirzepatide HFpEF application in May 2025 after FDA indicated an additional confirmatory clinical trial is required; no HFpEF label as of 2026-07-06. Minor thesis impact -- tirzepatide is already a mega-blockbuster on obesity/OSA/T2D and HFpEF was upside optionality, so no valuation change applied.","failTP":795.221952,"successTP":795.221952,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"kisunla","indication":"kisunla_alz","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-24: FDA clearance of Roche/Lilly Elecsys pTau217 plasma test -- first blood-based rule-in/rule-out of amyloid pathology for primary care; widens the Kisunla diagnostic funnel (narrative-only, no PoS change)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/fda/roche-lilly-win-first-fda-nod-for-alzheimers-blood-test-for-primary-care-use","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Diagnostic clearance, not a Lilly therapeutic event. It relieves the amyloid-confirmation bottleneck (PET/CSF) that has capped Kisunla uptake, so it is a real but indirect volume tailwind. Kisunla is already commercial with salesM booked, so no pos/apr lever applies -- narrative + stage text only.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":795.221952,"successTP":795.221952,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-18","asset":"imlunestrant","indication":"imlu_breast_2l","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-18: FDA approves Inluriyo (imlunestrant) + Verzenio for ER+ HER2- ESR1-mutated advanced BC after >=1 line of ET (EMBER-3 combo arm); Guardant360 CDx companion Dx","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"_source":"FDA / Lilly PR 2026-09-18","_confidence":"high","failTP":791.296039,"successTP":792.518145,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-02","asset":"jaypirca","indication":"jaypirca_cll_mcl","title":"REPORTED 2026-10-02: FDA approves Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) for previously untreated CLL/SLL without known del(17p) -- BRUIN CLL-313 PFS HR 0.20 vs bendamustine-rituximab; first non-covalent BTKi in 1L","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lillys-jaypirca-pirtobrutinib-the-first-and-only-approved-non-covalent-btk-inhibitor-receives-expanded-indication-from-us-fda-for-certain-patients-with-previously-untreated-cllsll-302897416.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Label expansion on an already-commercial SOTP asset: the engine skips commercial-classified assets in SOTP, so value flows only through commercialRevM (flagged, not edited).","failTP":795.221952,"successTP":795.221952,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"orforglipron","indication":"orfo_t2d","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-05: Orforglipron ACHIEVE T2D Phase 3 program positive + US FDA filing submitted (CNPV voucher)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"LLY pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":786.290491,"successTP":796.909262,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"olumiant","indication":"olumiant_aa_ra","title":"Merida Biosciences acquisition close (announced Aug 31 2026): up to $2.875B cash -- upfront + contingent milestones, Q4'26 guided close subject to regulatory clearance. Adds an autoantibody-degrading biologics platform: MER511 Ph1 (Graves' disease, thyroid eye disease) + MER769 (food allergy/asthma) + preclinical renal","type":"m_and_a","failTP":795.221952,"successTP":795.221952,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bpl003","indication":"bpl003_trd","title":"BPL-003 Phase 3 (ReConnection) first patient dosed under Lilly -- \"Phase 3 activities initiated\" at close; no dosing date disclosed","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000081/lly-20260630.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":792.147755,"successTP":793.101995,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"orforglipron","indication":"orfo_t2d","title":"Foundayo (orforglipron) T2D sNDA FDA decision (submitted Q2 2026 under Commissioner's National Priority Voucher)","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_source":"Lilly Q2 2026 PR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":784.420162,"successTP":787.775579,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"imlunestrant","indication":"imlu_breast_2l","title":"EMBER-4 adjuvant imlunestrant Ph3 (n>8,000, ER+ HER2- early BC) initial results -- adjuvant not modelled; upside to imlunestrant value","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"Lilly PR 2025-09-25","_confidence":"medium","failTP":791.296039,"successTP":792.518145,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"zepbound","indication":"tirz_mash","title":"Tirzepatide MASH SYNERGY Phase 3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"LLY pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":795.221952,"successTP":795.221952,"baseTP":795.221952,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":61300,"lenses":{"comparable":1191.57,"peRel":1.1053},"readouts":[{"a":"orforglipron","ind":"orfo_obesity","ds":"2026-04-01","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"own","med":12.2973867,"lo":3.55887289,"hi":17.1866297,"pBeatBest":0,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"retatrutide","ind":"reta_obesity","ds":"2026-05-21","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"own","med":27.0991069,"lo":1.20970644,"hi":34.0748616,"pBeatBest":0.74715,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"orforglipron","ind":"orfo_t2d","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","endpoint":"hba1c_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":1.46790826,"lo":-0.105588063,"hi":2.51884103,"pBeatBest":0.13495,"bestDrug":"tirzepatide 15mg","bestValue":2.07},{"a":"zepbound","ind":"tirz_mash","ds":"2027-12-31","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"own","med":45.6667187,"lo":6.9342335,"hi":66.9758076,"pBeatBest":0.51955,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"LNTH":{"name":"Lantheus Holdings, Inc.","subtitle":"TAKEOUT: Curium $102.50/sh cash + CVRs to $12.00; vote Oct 14, close H1'27. TAUKLARIFY tau PET APPROVED Aug'26. BRAVNETSA (Lutathera generic) FINAL FDA Sep 22'26. OCTEVY CRL (mfg)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":66.3,"netCashLocal":696,"cashPS":10.4977,"tps":{"mega_bear":70,"bear":102.5,"base":106,"bull":110,"psychedelic_bull":114.5},"weightedTP":105.9,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","oncology.neuroendocrine","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration"],"modalities":["radiopharmaceutical.diagnostic.psma_pet","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.diagnostic","formulation_modifier.contrast.perflutren","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.contrast","radiopharmaceutical.diagnostic.grpr_pet","radiopharmaceutical.diagnostic.tau_pet","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.lutetium_dotatate","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.lutetium_psma"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":92},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":46},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":28},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":99},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":50},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":25},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":155},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":8,"rarePurityWtd":6,"optionality":8,"totalTAM":33.714,"totalWTD":31.13886},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-29","asset":"octevy","indication":"oct_net","title":"REPORTED (CRL): OCTEVY / LNTH-2501 (Ga 68 edotreotide, SSTR+ NET PET) received a Complete Response Letter at the Jun 29 2026 PDUFA over unresolved third-party manufacturing facility conditions; FDA raised no safety or efficacy concerns","type":"pdufa","fail_pos":68,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":98,"failTP":105.852582,"successTP":106.040603,"baseTP":105.899878,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 3 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-03","asset":"pylarify","indication":"pyl_mcrpc","title":"REPORTED: Curium to acquire Lantheus for $102.50/share all-cash plus CVRs of up to $12.00/share through 2030 -- definitive agreement signed Aug 3 2026; scenario TPs pinned to the consideration","type":"m_and_a","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_note":"Curium US Holdings LLC acquires all outstanding shares. Cash floor $102.50 plus CVRs tied to specified commercial milestones through 2030 worth up to $12.00/share. Radiodiagnostics overlap between the two makes antitrust the live risk; no deal-break scenario is carried here (see company._dealNote).","_source":"Lantheus Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-06 (investor.lantheus.com; manilatimes/globenewswire 2026-08-06); merger announced 2026-08-03","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":105.899878,"successTP":105.899878,"baseTP":105.899878,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 14 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-14","asset":"mk6240","indication":"mk_az","title":"REPORTED: MK-6240 APPROVED Aug 14 2026 as TAUKLARIFY (florquinitau F 18 injection) -- first-line F-18 tau PET agent for AD workup; label limited to AD tau NFT pathology, not non-AD tauopathies","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Lantheus PR 2026-08-14 (globenewswire 3345281); lantheusholdings.gcs-web.com news release","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approval is a factual regulatory event: pos/apr set to 100/100 in every scenario (above the pre-declared success_pos 85 / success_apr 92, which priced residual review risk that no longer exists). Commercial ramp risk now sits in pen, unchanged.","failTP":91.1846527,"successTP":106.941834,"baseTP":105.899878,"swingPct":8,"successMove":1,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"pnt2003","indication":"pnt_net","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-22: PNT2003 FDA FINAL APPROVAL as BRAVNETSA (Lutathera radioequivalent; first radioligand therapy approved via ANDA)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.cancernetwork.com/view/lutetium-lu-177-dotatate-biosimilar-earns-final-fda-approval-in-gep-nets (Lantheus PR 2026-09-22)","_confidence":"high","_note":"FULL approval NOT YET as of Jun 2026: FDA granted TENTATIVE approval Mar 2 2026 (first radioequivalent to Lutathera). Final approval/launch gated on expiry of the 30-month Hatch-Waxman litigation stay (~Jun 2026); no final-approval announcement confirmed yet. Date pushed to Q3 2026 pending stay expiry + final action.","_noteSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/02/3247398/0/en/Lantheus-Receives-FDA-Tentative-Approval-for-Lutetium-Lu-177-Dotatate-PNT2003-Radioequivalent-to-LUTATHERA.html","_outcome":"success","failTP":105.000072,"successTP":106.03414,"baseTP":105.899878,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Oct 14 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-10-14","asset":"pylarify","indication":"pyl_mcrpc","title":"Lantheus special stockholder meeting -- vote on Curium merger ($102.50 cash + CVR up to $12.00); supplemental proxy disclosures filed Oct 2 2026 to moot stockholder suits","type":"m_and_a","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1521036/000119312526412563/0001193125-26-412563-index.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":105.899878,"successTP":105.899878,"baseTP":105.899878,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"pnt2002","indication":"pnt2_psma","title":"PNT2002 SPLASH Ph3 OS readout (mCRPC radioligand therapy; Pluvicto-class)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"LNTH pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":103.596943,"successTP":106.374957,"baseTP":105.899878,"swingPct":2,"successMove":0,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"pylarify","indication":"pyl_mcrpc","title":"Curium/Lantheus merger close -- antitrust clearance + shareholder vote; CVR milestone schedule begins (SLIPPED: companies now guide close in H1 2027; Curium withdrew/refiled HSR Sep 17/21 2026, new waiting period ends Oct 21 2026)","type":"m_and_a","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_note":"If the merger is blocked or terminated, the pinning in every scenario is invalid and the config must revert to standalone fundamentals (pre-deal weighted TP was about $258 on the post-TAUKLARIFY assumptions, with scenario TPs $55-435).","_confidence":"high","failTP":105.899878,"successTP":105.899878,"baseTP":105.899878,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1280,"lenses":{"comparable":106.06,"eeRel":0.8284,"peRel":0.9198},"readouts":[{"a":"pnt2002","ind":"pnt2_psma","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","endpoint":"rpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.88057904,"lo":1.73693884,"hi":13.6355099,"pBeatBest":0.07025,"bestDrug":"177Lu-PSMA-617 (pre-taxane)","bestValue":12.02}]},"LPCN":{"name":"Lipocine Inc.","subtitle":"Oral prodrug platform | TLANDO licensed (12-18% royalty, Verity US/CA + GCC/LatAm/APAC) | LPCN-1148 Ph3-ready cirrhosis | LPCN-1154 PPD: Ph3 miss Apr'26, new BLOOM Ph3 Sep'26 | Cash $23M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":8.24,"netCashLocal":23.3,"cashPS":2.8277,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0.51,"bull":12.61,"psychedelic_bull":31.55},"weightedTP":2.7,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.gonadal.hypogonadism","endocrine","endocrine.gonadal","gastro_hepatology.liver.cirrhosis_decompensated","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.oral_modified.bioavailability_enhancer","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.oral_modified"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":169},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":85},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cirrhosis_decompensated","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":9},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.hypogonadism","purity":4},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":91},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.hypogonadism","purity":55},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":46},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cirrhosis_decompensated","purity":35},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":28},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":9},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":9}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":66},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cirrhosis_decompensated","purity":55},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal.hypogonadism","purity":54},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":33},{"area":"endocrine.gonadal","purity":27},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":27},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":12}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1440,"totalTAM":170.019,"totalWTD":11.0383225},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-15","asset":"lpcn_1154","indication":"lpcn1154_ppd","title":"REPORTED: LPCN-1154 Phase 3 PPD MISSED HAM-D primary Apr 2 2026 (well-tolerated); post hoc excluding one anomalous high-enrolling site showed rapid/sustained improvement -- company has since started a new BLOOM Ph3 (Sep 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":0,"success_apr":0,"_source":"Lipocine IR Apr 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Ph3 PPD missed HAM-D primary; oral brexanolone shelved as commercial asset.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":1.61701765,"successTP":3.5304228,"baseTP":2.69933223,"swingPct":71,"successMove":31,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":17,"expectedReturn":-28,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"lpcn_1148","indication":"lpcn1148_cirrhosis","title":"LPCN-1148 cirrhosis/OHE partnership announcement target","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":62,"_source":"Lipocine IR FY26 guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.197235093,"successTP":7.18450925,"baseTP":2.69933223,"swingPct":104,"successMove":66,"failMove":-37,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"lpcn_2401","indication":"lpcn2401_obesity_adj","title":"LPCN-2401 Phase 1/2 body-composition adjunct readout (obesity GLP-1 lean-mass)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":12,"success_pos":28,"success_apr":35,"_source":"Lipocine IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.435381677,"successTP":6.84915517,"baseTP":2.69933223,"swingPct":238,"successMove":154,"failMove":-84,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":-51,"daysOut":null,"materiality":51},{"date":"Q3 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-15","asset":"lpcn_1154","indication":"lpcn1154_ppd","title":"LPCN-1154 BLOOM Ph3 PPD topline (NCT07822321; HAM-D17 change vs placebo at hour 60; primary completion Aug 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":75,"_source":"clinicaltrials.gov NCT07822321 + Lipocine Q2 2026 8-K","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.61701765,"successTP":5.11029878,"baseTP":2.69933223,"swingPct":129,"successMove":89,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":17,"expectedReturn":-18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17}],"salesM2025":0.5,"lenses":{"comparable":0.99},"readouts":[{"a":"lpcn_2401","ind":"lpcn2401_obesity_adj","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":3.59168074,"lo":-2.31198162,"hi":24.9884105,"pBeatBest":0.03175,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"LQDA":{"name":"Liquidia Corporation","subtitle":"YUTREPIA (treprostinil DPI) PAH/PH-ILD launched Jun'25 - taking share from UTHR Tyvaso | Q2'26 net sales $170.4M (+31% QoQ), ~30% of inhaled market; mgmt guides >$1B net revenue in 2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":86,"netCashLocal":284.2,"cashPS":3.3047,"tps":{"mega_bear":13.15,"bear":23.76,"base":43.56,"bull":71.07,"psychedelic_bull":104.38},"weightedTP":48.99,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.inhaled.treprostinil_dpi","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.inhaled","formulation_modifier.liposomal.treprostinil","formulation_modifier.liposomal"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":174},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":26}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":169},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":31}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":123},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":77}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":19,"totalTAM":16.545,"totalWTD":13.9431562},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"yutrepia","indication":"yut_pah","title":"YUTREPIA FY26 ramp + ASCENT/Uptravi inadequate-response data","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"LQDA FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":48.987167,"successTP":48.987167,"baseTP":48.987167,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"l606","indication":"l606_pah","title":"L606 Ph3 enrollment progress + interim","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"LQDA pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":44.5241346,"successTP":50.9637191,"baseTP":48.987167,"swingPct":13,"successMove":4,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","ratioPct":137},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","ratioPct":120}]},"lenses":{"comparable":26.53,"eeRel":0.2663,"peRel":0.552},"readouts":[{"a":"l606","ind":"l606_pah","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","endpoint":"six_mwd_change_m","unit":"m","src":"class","med":21.7786318,"lo":-10.3580922,"hi":54.072766,"pBeatBest":0.1378,"bestDrug":"sotatercept","bestValue":40.8}]},"LUPIN":{"name":"Lupin Limited","subtitle":"Indian respiratory + complex generics | FY25 (Mar25) INR 227B / ~$2.7B | India branded $850M + NA generics $800M (complex inhalation Spiriva DPI + Albuterol AG)","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":456,"netCashLocal":18480,"cashPS":40.5263,"tps":{"mega_bear":1422.07,"bear":2009.81,"base":2777.37,"bull":3810.82,"psychedelic_bull":5520.8},"weightedTP":2868.51,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","infectious_disease.bacterial.vaginosis","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.lupin_lupin_india_other","_established_products","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","_established_products.lupin_lupin_us_generics_other","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.lupin_lupin_emea_other","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","_established_products.lupin_lupin_growth_em_other","_established_products.lupin_lupin_api_other","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.saba","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.lama","small_molecule.antibacterial.nitroimidazole","small_molecule.antibacterial","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.laba_ics_combo","biologic.antibody.fragment.anti_vegf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fragment"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":71},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":35},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":27},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":22},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":19},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.vaginosis","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_emea_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_growth_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_api_other","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":71},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":35},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":27},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":21},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":19},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.vaginosis","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_emea_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_growth_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_api_other","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":114},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":89},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":64},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.vaginosis","purity":21},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_emea_other","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_growth_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.lupin_lupin_api_other","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1112.833,"totalWTD":1108.34805},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"g_spiriva","indication":"copd_lama","title":"gSpiriva US share ramp","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Lupin Q4 IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":2868.50848,"successTP":2868.50848,"baseTP":2868.50848,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 FY27","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"g_advair_lupin","indication":"asthma_copd","title":"gAdvair Diskus FDA approval -- still pending; Cipla approved Jul 28 2026 ahead of Lupin (all three strengths) -- still not approved as of Oct 9 2026; rolled to Dec 2026","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Lupin pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2868.49113,"successTP":2868.51955,"baseTP":2868.50848,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2708,"lenses":{"comparable":1799.79,"eeRel":1.2105,"peRel":1.7837}},"LXEO":{"name":"Lexeo Therapeutics","subtitle":"Cardiac AAV gene therapy: LX2006 Friedreich ataxia cardiomyopathy SUNRISE-FA2 Ph3 protocol FDA-aligned; LX1001 APOE4 homozygous Alzheimer's; LX2022 preclinical; cash $228M to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":90.02,"netCashLocal":227.6,"cashPS":2.5283,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.48,"bear":2.82,"base":5.22,"bull":7.97,"psychedelic_bull":11.35},"weightedTP":4.88,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aavrh10_frataxin","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aavrh10_apoe2"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":136},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":64}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":135},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":65}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":174},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":26}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":253,"totalTAM":8.786,"totalWTD":2.487312},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"lx2006","indication":"lx2006_fa","title":"REPORTED (2026-06-15, success): LX2006 FDA aligned -- SUNRISE-FA2 protocol + SAP finalized under accelerated approval pathway (LVMI primary, 6-mo topline), BLA targeted 2028, first patient dosing end-Q2 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/15/3311662/0/en/lexeo-therapeutics-announces-regulatory-update-and-registrational-trial-design-for-lx2006-gene-therapy-in-friedreich-ataxia.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":2.13451483,"successTP":6.84266323,"baseTP":4.87770137,"swingPct":48,"successMove":20,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"lx2006","indication":"lx2006_fa","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-22: LX2006 SUNRISE-FA2 Ph3 pivotal trial initiation (post-FDA alignment) -- SUNRISE-FA2 pivotal is ENROLLING (Lexeo PR 2026-09-22); topline guided 2H 2027","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":68,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://ir.lexeotx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.00016511,"successTP":6.80761484,"baseTP":4.87770137,"swingPct":23,"successMove":12,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"lx1001","indication":"lx1001_alz","title":"LX1001 APOE4/E4 Alzheimer's Ph1/2 update","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://ir.lexeotx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.94559752,"successTP":5.91889124,"baseTP":4.87770137,"swingPct":28,"successMove":15,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"2H 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"lx2006","indication":"lx2006_fa","title":"LX2006 SUNRISE-FA2 pivotal topline (FA cardiomyopathy; accelerated-approval path)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Lexeo PR / 8-K ex-99.1 2026-09-22","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.02465076,"successTP":7.43967727,"baseTP":4.87770137,"swingPct":111,"successMove":53,"failMove":-58,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":25,"daysOut":null,"materiality":57}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.94},"readouts":[{"a":"lx1001","ind":"lx1001_alz","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":15.347113,"lo":-10.651514,"hi":42.2620911,"pBeatBest":0.2031,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27}]},"LXRX":{"name":"Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Refocused post-Inpefa | FY25 $50M ($45M Novo + $5M Inpefa) | LX9851 Novo obesity ($475M milestones) | LX9211 (pilavapadin) DPN Ph3 | SONATA-HCM Q1'27 | $200M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":444.2,"netCashLocal":135.6,"cashPS":0.3053,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0.46,"base":1.54,"bull":2.9,"psychedelic_bull":4.61},"weightedTP":1.4,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns","cns.pain","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.sglt1_sglt2","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.enzyme.acc2","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.kinase.aak1_inhibitor","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":155},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":78},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":5},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":4},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":110},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":55},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":49},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":16},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":8},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":6},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.hcm","purity":130},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":65},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":56},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":28},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":196,"totalTAM":185.62,"totalWTD":62.75082},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-23","asset":"lx9851","indication":"lx9851_obesity","title":"REPORTED 2026-03-23: Novo Nordisk INITIATED the Phase 1 SAD/MAD study of LX9851 (first-in-class oral ACSL5 inhibitor) in overweight/obese participants -- the config still carried this as a future Q3'26 event","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":78,"_source":"LXRX FY25 PR + Novo deal Mar 2025","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.39780223,"successTP":1.39780223,"baseTP":1.39780223,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":24,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 27 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-07-27","asset":"sotagliflozin_hcm","indication":"soto_hcm","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-27: SONATA-HCM Ph3 randomization COMPLETE -- overshot the 500-patient target, >130 sites / 20 countries; topline reaffirmed for Q1 2027","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":82,"_note":"Enrollment milestone met on schedule (prior guidance was mid-2026), so no assumption change -- a completed randomization confirms the base case rather than re-rating it. Two corrections taken from the PR: (1) SONATA-HCM enrolls BOTH symptomatic non-obstructive AND obstructive HCM -- it is the only ongoing Ph3 covering both and the largest to date -- whereas this config described it as oHCM only; indication name and stage text corrected. (2) Primary efficacy endpoint is change from baseline to week 26 in KCCQ CSS (symptoms/function), not a hemodynamic endpoint. Topline Q1 2027, consistent with the separate 2027-02-28 catalyst. Source: Lexicon PR 2026-07-27 (globenewswire 3333536).","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/27/3333536/0/en/Lexicon-Pharmaceuticals-Completes-Enrollment-of-Pivotal-Phase-3-SONATA-HCM-Study-of-Sotagliflozin-in-Symptomatic-Non-Obstructive-and-Obstructive-Hypertrophic-Cardiomyopathy-HCM.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.873761374,"successTP":2.10000791,"baseTP":1.39780223,"swingPct":26,"successMove":15,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zynquista_t1d","indication":"zynq_t1d","title":"ZYNQUISTA (sotagliflozin) NDA RESUBMISSION in type 1 diabetes -- guided Q4 2026 in the Q2 2026 report; the 2019 review ended without approval over diabetic-ketoacidosis risk, so acceptance and the review clock are the first gate","type":"nda_submission","fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"failTP":1.28652767,"successTP":1.4971267,"baseTP":1.39780223,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q1 2027 (precise)","dateSort":"2027-02-28","asset":"sotagliflozin_hcm","indication":"soto_hcm","title":"SONATA-HCM Phase 3 topline readout (sotagliflozin in obstructive HCM)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"LXRX FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.497187919,"successTP":2.30172223,"baseTP":1.39780223,"swingPct":129,"successMove":65,"failMove":-64,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":26,"daysOut":null,"materiality":48},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"lx9851","indication":"lx9851_obesity","title":"LX9851 Novo-led Phase 1 program COMPLETION (company guides Q1 2027) -- gates the next development milestone under the $1B milestone ladder plus tiered royalties","type":"phase1_data","fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":72,"failTP":1.39780223,"successTP":1.39780223,"baseTP":1.39780223,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"lx9211","indication":"lx9211_dpn","title":"LX9211 (pilavapadin) Phase 3 DPNP initiation (10mg dose; post-PROGRESS Ph2b)","type":"phase3_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"LXRX FY25 PR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.39780223,"successTP":1.39780223,"baseTP":1.39780223,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":67,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":5,"lenses":{"comparable":0.48},"readouts":[{"a":"lx9851","ind":"lx9851_obesity","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.199262,"lo":2.74646761,"hi":29.4763791,"pBeatBest":0.13185,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"LYEL":{"name":"Lyell Immunopharma, Inc.","subtitle":"LYL314 (ronde-cel) dual CD19/CD20 CAR-T LBCL: PiNACLE 3L+ pivotal single-arm ongoing, more data 2H'26, pivotal data mid-2027; no Gr>=3 CRS | ImmPACT acq | Cash $228M into Q3'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":23.33,"netCashLocal":228,"cashPS":9.7728,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.64,"bear":7.53,"base":9.03,"bull":10.48,"psychedelic_bull":11.67},"weightedTP":8.72,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_dual_cd19_cd20","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_solid_stemness"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":72},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":28}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":37}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":16}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":287,"totalTAM":13.319,"totalWTD":3.4385703},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"lyl314","indication":"lyl314_lbcl","title":"LYL314 additional Ph1/2 + PiNACLE data (2H 2026 guided; ASH 2026 window)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_confidence":"high","_source":"Lyell Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-06","failTP":6.9977079,"successTP":9.17334893,"baseTP":8.71941008,"swingPct":25,"successMove":5,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"lyl273","indication":"lyl273_crc","title":"LYL273 Ph1 mCRC MSS dose-escalation update -- SLIPPED to 2027 after manufacturing transfer to LyFE Bothell (PR Sep 10 2026); trial amended to Ph1/2","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.35396834,"successTP":8.98071662,"baseTP":8.71941008,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":24,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"lyl314","indication":"lyl314_lbcl","title":"LYL314 PiNACLE 3L+ pivotal data (mid-2027 guided); BLA submission to follow","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"Lyell Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-06","failTP":6.95223647,"successTP":7.13723439,"baseTP":8.71941008,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":12.32},"readouts":[{"a":"lyl273","ind":"lyl273_crc","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":2.80579188,"lo":0,"hi":20.7806772,"pBeatBest":0.35465,"bestDrug":"trifluridine/tipiracil + bev","bestValue":6.3}]},"MANE":{"name":"Veradermics","subtitle":"VDPHL01 oral ER minoxidil for pattern hair loss: Study 302 POSITIVE Apr'26 (M); Study 304 male Ph3 H2'26; Study 207 female Ph2 POSITIVE Jul'26; Study 306 female topline 1H'27; IPO Feb'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":30,"netCashLocal":295,"cashPS":9.8333,"tps":{"mega_bear":9.06,"bear":12.3,"base":16.79,"bull":21.31,"psychedelic_bull":24.32},"weightedTP":15.69,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.aesthetics.androgenetic_alopecia","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.oral_modified.minoxidil_er","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.oral_modified"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.androgenetic_alopecia","purity":200},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.androgenetic_alopecia","purity":200},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.androgenetic_alopecia","purity":200},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":56,"totalTAM":4.14,"totalWTD":2.647944},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"vdphl01","indication":"vdphl01_aga","title":"VDPHL01 Study 304 Ph3 male pattern hair loss topline (replication)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260427832356/en/Veradermics-Oral-VDPHL01-Achieved-Early-Consistent-and-Robust-Hair-Growth-in-Positive-Phase-23-302-Clinical-Trial-in-Male-Pattern-Hair-Loss","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.59730863,"successTP":20.0281328,"baseTP":15.6919596,"swingPct":67,"successMove":28,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":47}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":19.89}},"MANKIND":{"name":"Mankind Pharma Limited","subtitle":"Top-5 Indian pharma (4.8% domestic share post-BSV) | 9M FY25 op revenue INR 92B (+17%); FY25 ~INR 120B | BSV acquisition Oct'24 (INR 13.8K cr) -> leadership in womens health/critical care","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":400.5,"netCashLocal":25000,"cashPS":62.422,"tps":{"mega_bear":1103,"bear":1622.97,"base":2596.75,"bull":3770.29,"psychedelic_bull":6554.31},"weightedTP":2808.58,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.india_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.india_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.india_specialty"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 FY27","dateSort":"2026-11-10","asset":"mankind_india_branded","indication":"mankind_in_div","title":"Mankind Q2 FY27 results (Sep 2026 quarter; BSV integration)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Mankind IR calendar","_confidence":"high","failTP":2808.58302,"successTP":2808.58302,"baseTP":2808.58302,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1350,"lenses":{"comparable":1317.11,"peRel":1.15}},"MAZE":{"name":"Maze Therapeutics","subtitle":"Precision genetics: MZE829 APOL1 AMKD HORIZON Ph2 positive (36% proteinuria redux), more data late'26/early'27, pivotal H1'27; MZE782 PKU Ph2 ongoing; MZE001 Pompe (Shionogi); cash $495M to 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":56.4,"netCashLocal":455.94,"cashPS":8.084,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.98,"bear":12.96,"base":20.36,"bull":31.8,"psychedelic_bull":41.54},"weightedTP":21.61,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.amkd","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.apol1","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.transporter.slc6a19","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.enzyme.gys1","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":73},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.amkd","purity":71},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":55},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":37},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":36},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":28}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.amkd","purity":89},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":68},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":45},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":43},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":34},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":21}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.amkd","purity":182},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":91},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.pompe","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":168,"totalTAM":14.377,"totalWTD":5.359991},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"mze782","indication":"mze782_pku","title":"RESOLVED (Q2'26 8-K): MZE782 Ph2 PKU (CIPheR) INITIATED; CKD Ph2 slipped to H1 2027","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":38,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":52,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/MAZE/maze-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-64ofa4izi1g7.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.7277683,"successTP":22.3746179,"baseTP":21.6053326,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Late 2026 / early 2027","dateSort":"2027-01-31","asset":"mze829","indication":"mze829_amkd","title":"MZE829 HORIZON Ph2 additional data (continued enrollment)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"MAZE Q2 2026 8-K","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.47295719,"successTP":9.16833389,"baseTP":21.6053326,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-58,"failMove":-65,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":-60,"daysOut":null,"materiality":62},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-31","asset":"mze829","indication":"mze829_amkd","title":"MZE829 Ph3 pivotal initiation in moderate AMKD without diabetes (incl FSGS; pending FDA feedback)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/MAZE/maze-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-64ofa4izi1g7.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.9217951,"successTP":29.695917,"baseTP":21.6053326,"swingPct":22,"successMove":11,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":21.83}},"MBX":{"name":"MBX Biosciences","subtitle":"Precision peptides: canvuparatide once-weekly PTH -- oPTimize Ph3 dosing (Ph2 63%/79% responder); MBX 4291 monthly obesity Ph1; PBH (imapextide) deprioritized; cash $418.6M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":47.6,"netCashLocal":418.6,"cashPS":8.7941,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.78,"bear":17.02,"base":31.16,"bull":39.05,"psychedelic_bull":45.52},"weightedTP":28.92,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","endocrine","endocrine.parathyroid","endocrine.metabolic.post_bariatric_hypoglycemia","endocrine.metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.pth_analog_weekly","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_antagonist","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip_dual"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":186},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":93},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":9},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.post_bariatric_hypoglycemia","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":166},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":83},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":33},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":16},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.post_bariatric_hypoglycemia","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":183},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":91},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":6},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.post_bariatric_hypoglycemia","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":3}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":496,"totalTAM":155.1648,"totalWTD":26.0286796},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"canvuparatide","indication":"canv_hypopara","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-27: Canvuparatide oPTimize Ph3 FIRST PATIENT DOSED -- global, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, ~160 patients 3:1, 26-week composite responder primary, 78-week OLE (post EoP2 Mar'26)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/09/3251975/0/en/CORRECTING-REPLACING-MBX-Biosciences-Announces-Successful-End-of-Phase-2-FDA-Meeting-and-Provides-Phase-3-Development-Plan-for-Once-Weekly-Canvuparatide-for-Hypoparathyroidism.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":15.6798639,"successTP":36.4397285,"baseTP":28.9152058,"swingPct":22,"successMove":8,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":69,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"mbx4291","indication":"mbx4291_obesity","title":"MBX 4291 Phase 1 MAD Part C 12-week cohort data (once-monthly GLP-1/GIP co-agonist prodrug; weight loss + GI tolerability)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/11/3291731/0/en/MBX-Biosciences-Provides-Obesity-Portfolio-Update-Including-Initial-Phase-1-Data-for-MBX-4291-Supporting-Potential-for-Once-Monthly-Dosing.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":27.5035546,"successTP":29.8900751,"baseTP":28.9152058,"swingPct":6,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"canvuparatide","indication":"canv_hypopara","title":"Canvuparatide oPTimize Ph3 topline -- 26-week composite responder rate (normal serum calcium, off active vitamin D, calcium supplements <=600 mg/day, stable dose). Date ESTIMATED from a Q3'26 first dose, ~160-patient rare-disease enrollment and the 26-week endpoint; re-date when MBX guides.","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":92,"failTP":6.40364968,"successTP":47.6974986,"baseTP":28.9152058,"swingPct":143,"successMove":65,"failMove":-78,"yourPoS":69,"expectedReturn":21,"daysOut":null,"materiality":76}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":30},"readouts":[{"a":"mbx4291","ind":"mbx4291_obesity","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1800753,"lo":2.82617649,"hi":29.5458828,"pBeatBest":0.1313,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"MDGL":{"name":"Madrigal Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Rezdiffra Q1'26 $311M (+127% YoY) · First & only MASH drug · 42K+ patients · 10+ pipeline programs","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":23,"netCashLocal":817.9,"cashPS":35.5609,"tps":{"mega_bear":213.02,"bear":474.78,"base":688.65,"bull":999.63,"psychedelic_bull":1241.49},"weightedTP":738.18,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.thr_beta_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.combination.triple_metabolic","small_molecule.combination"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":200},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":100,"totalTAM":71.4,"totalWTD":35.6405},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-07-01","asset":"combos","indication":"mash_combo","title":"REPORTED: siRNA program advanced via Ribo/Ribocure global license (Feb 11 2026; 6 preclinical incl PNPLA3; $60M up / $4.4B ms)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":30,"_source":"https://ir.madrigalpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/madrigal-expands-its-mash-pipeline-exclusive-global-licensing","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.madrigalpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/madrigal-pharmaceuticals-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-0","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company announced IND-enabling activities for siRNA candidates will begin in 2026","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Confirmed: on Feb 11, 2026 Ribo (HKEX:06938) / Ribocure announced an exclusive worldwide license to Madrigal for six preclinical siRNA MASH programs on Ribo's GalSTAR platform; $60M upfront, up to $4.4B milestones + royalties; IND-enabling activities to begin in 2026. Early-stage BD milestone -- no scenario change.","failTP":736.214025,"successTP":738.899527,"baseTP":738.178133,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Throughout 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"f4c","indication":"mash_f4","title":"Rezdiffra F4c cirrhosis: MAESTRO-NASH-OUTCOMES primary completion (SLIPPED to Dec 2026; readout H1 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_note":"SLIPPED / unresolved as of 2026-07-06. MAESTRO-NASH OUTCOMES (resmetirom in compensated MASH/F4c cirrhosis) fully enrolled; Madrigal guides F4c outcomes readout expected in 2027. Positive supporting 2-yr MAESTRO-NAFLD-1 F4c OLE data (122 pts) reported 2025. Primary completion dateSort rolled to Dec 2026; topline readout H1 2027.","_source":"https://ir.madrigalpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/madrigal-pharmaceuticals-completes-enrollment-clinical-outcomes","failTP":679.099359,"successTP":778.547029,"baseTP":738.178133,"swingPct":13,"successMove":5,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":1280,"lenses":{"comparable":493.73},"readouts":[{"a":"f4c","ind":"mash_f4","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":27.2723522,"lo":5.79577369,"hi":52.6204184,"pBeatBest":0.09815,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"MEDCL":{"name":"MedinCell S.A.","subtitle":"French BEPO long-acting injectable specialist -- Uzedy Teva risperidone LAI ($191M FY25 +63%; +Bipolar I Oct'25) + Olanzapine LAI (NDA Dec'25, PDUFA Q4'26) + mdc-WWM 6mo contraceptive + AbbVie","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":35.91,"netCashLocal":45,"cashPS":1.2531,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.34,"bear":7.47,"base":13.29,"bull":18.85,"psychedelic_bull":27.82},"weightedTP":13.51,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","women_health.contraception.long_acting_injectable","women_health","women_health.contraception","_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","_platform","_platform.delivery"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.depot.bepo_subcutaneous","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.depot","formulation_modifier.depot.bepo_olanzapine","formulation_modifier.depot.bepo_contraceptive","formulation_modifier.depot.bepo_undisclosed"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":143},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":99},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":55},{"area":"women_health.contraception.long_acting_injectable","purity":2},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":1},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":142},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":57},{"area":"women_health.contraception.long_acting_injectable","purity":1},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":108},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":74},{"area":"women_health.contraception.long_acting_injectable","purity":53},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":39},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":26},{"area":"_platform.delivery.bbb_jbrain","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":3,"totalTAM":34.206,"totalWTD":33.058839},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-04-21","dateSort":"2025-04-21","asset":"uzedy_royalty","indication":"schizophrenia","title":"REPORTED: Leerink initiates MEDCL coverage with Outperform -- thesis on Uzedy + Olanzapine LAI ramp + BEPO franchise optionality","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"PharmiWeb + Leerink initiation","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-04-21 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":7.2500549,"successTP":9.56447895,"baseTP":13.514115,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-14,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"2025-10-15","dateSort":"2025-10-15","asset":"uzedy_royalty","indication":"bipolar_i","title":"REPORTED: Uzedy FDA approved for Bipolar I disorder -- label expansion beyond schizophrenia","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Teva + MedinCell PR Oct 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-10-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":10.8819154,"successTP":14.2112657,"baseTP":13.514115,"swingPct":12,"successMove":3,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"2025-12-15","dateSort":"2025-12-15","asset":"olanzapine_lai","indication":"schizo_olanzapine","title":"REPORTED: Olanzapine LAI (mdc-TJK) US NDA submitted by Teva to FDA -- once-monthly subQ; no PDSS black box vs Zyprexa Relprevv","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_source":"Teva + MedinCell Dec 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":10.5980566,"successTP":11.9785584,"baseTP":13.514115,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q1 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-15","asset":"uzedy_royalty","indication":"schizophrenia","title":"REPORTED: Uzedy Q4 2025 net sales $55M; FY25 $191M (+63% YoY vs $117M FY24); 2026 outlook $250-280M","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"Teva + MedinCell Feb 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-02-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":7.2500549,"successTP":9.56447895,"baseTP":13.514115,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-9,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"2026-02-20","dateSort":"2026-02-20","asset":"olanzapine_lai","indication":"schizo_olanzapine","title":"REPORTED: FDA accepts Teva's NDA for TEV-'749 (mdc-TJK olanzapine LAI) -- once-monthly schizophrenia; standard 10-mo review -> PDUFA late 2026; based on Ph3 SOLARIS Week 56 data","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"Teva PR Feb 20 2026 + Psychiatric Times + Neurology Advisor","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-02-20 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":10.5980566,"successTP":11.9785584,"baseTP":13.514115,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"May 21, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-21","asset":"olanzapine_lai","indication":"schizo_olanzapine","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-21 (HIT): the EMA ACCEPTED Teva’s Marketing Authorisation Application for olanzapine long-acting injectable (TEV-’749 / mdc-TJK) in adult schizophrenia -- once-monthly subcutaneous, Medincell SteadyTeq copolymer, supported by the Phase 3 SOLARIS programme. Submission and validation both complete, ahead of the Q2 2026 guide","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"MedinCell Dec 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"EMA accepts Teva's Marketing Authorization Application for olanzapine LAI (TEV-'749) for schizophrenia treatment in adults.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":10.5980566,"successTP":11.9785584,"baseTP":13.514115,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"olanzapine_lai","indication":"schizo_olanzapine","title":"TEV-'749 (mdc-TJK olanzapine LAI) US PDUFA -- late 2026 expected (10-mo review from Feb 20 2026 FDA acceptance); \\$4M approval milestone to MedinCell + royalty kicks in","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Teva FDA acceptance + 10-mo standard review = late 2026 PDUFA","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.0228045,"successTP":14.3567862,"baseTP":13.514115,"swingPct":17,"successMove":6,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":13,"lenses":{"comparable":7.62}},"MENARINI":{"name":"A. Menarini Industrie Farmaceutiche Riunite Srl (private; Aleotti family)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- Italian family-owned (Aleotti family; Florence) | FY24 EUR 4.7B; Stemline US oncology subsidiary; Orserdu (elacestrant ESR1m HR+ breast) commercial","currency":"EUR","country":"IT","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.leukemia.bpdcn","oncology.leukemia","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.serd","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.cd123_diphtheria_toxin","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_alpha_inhibitor","small_molecule.kinase","_diversified.branded.legacy_portfolio","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.osmotic.sugar_alcohol","small_molecule.osmotic"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":87},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":22},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":19},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":18},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.bpdcn","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":92},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":23},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":20},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":19},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.bpdcn","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":88},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":44},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":44},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":25},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.bpdcn","purity":12},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.constipation_chronic","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":6,"totalTAM":56.8515,"totalWTD":53.7192076},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":1715},"MESO":{"name":"Mesoblast Limited","subtitle":"Allogeneic MSC platform -- RYONCIL first FDA-approved MSC (pediatric SR-aGvHD; Mar 2025 launch; $11M Q1 -> $30M+ Q4); adult aGvHD + IBD + cardiac/LBP pipeline","currency":"USD","country":"AU","region":"OCEANIA","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":128.85,"netCashLocal":160,"cashPS":1.2418,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.64,"bear":3.95,"base":9.92,"bull":17.87,"psychedelic_bull":30.9},"weightedTP":10.95,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.transplant.acute_graft_vs_host","immunology","immunology.transplant","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology.inflammatory_gi","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns","cns.pain"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.msc_remestemcel","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.msc_rexlemestrocel"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":74},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":50},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":37},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.transplant.acute_graft_vs_host","purity":9},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":82},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":77},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":41},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":38},{"area":"immunology.transplant.acute_graft_vs_host","purity":28},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":14},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":13},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":95},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":67},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":48},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.transplant.acute_graft_vs_host","purity":31},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":16},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":7},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":14,"optionality":355,"totalTAM":41.621,"totalWTD":9.1384352},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q1 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-15","asset":"ryoncil","indication":"agvhd_ped","title":"REPORTED 2026-03-15: Ryoncil H1 FY26 (Jul-Dec 2025) -- gross $57M / net $48.7M (Q4 CY25 ~$35M gross beat >$30M Nov AGM guidance; +60% QoQ)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"MESO 20-F + H1 FY26 PR Feb 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-02-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":7.86112237,"successTP":9.80979021,"baseTP":10.9511903,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Aug 16 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-16","asset":"rexlemestrocel","indication":"hfref","title":"REPORTED: MSB-DR004 pivotal Ph3 chronic low back pain -- patient treatment COMPLETE Aug 16 2026 (350 randomized, up-sized from 300); single intra-discal rexlemestrocel-L vs sham, primary = durable 12-month pain reduction","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_note":"Operational milestone only -- no efficacy data released, so no assumption change. Because the primary endpoint reads at 12 months post-injection, topline cannot land before H2 2027. Secondary endpoints: function, quality of life, cessation of pain medication including opioids.","_source":"Mesoblast PR 2026-08-16 (globenewswire via biospace/manilatimes 2026-08-17)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":4.4441551,"successTP":7.24862409,"baseTP":10.9511903,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-10,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":23,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"FY26 (Jun 2026)","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"ryoncil","indication":"agvhd_ped","title":"REPORTED (HIT): FY26 results (year to 30-Jun-2026) -- total revenue US$120.3M, RYONCIL net revenue US$115.2M after a 13.4% gross-to-net adjustment, at the top of the US$110-120M guide. H1 FY26 alone was US$48.7M net on US$57.0M gross; Q3 FY26 US$30M net. Ramp delivered via academic + community centre expansion","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"MESO commercial trajectory","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.86112237,"successTP":9.80979021,"baseTP":10.9511903,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"rexlemestrocel","indication":"hfref","title":"Rexlemestrocel-L Phase 3 HFrEF readout (one-time intracardiac MSC injection)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":82,"_source":"MESO pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.97766612,"successTP":19.6779765,"baseTP":10.9511903,"swingPct":116,"successMove":80,"failMove":-36,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":47},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ryoncil","indication":"agvhd_adult","title":"BMT CTN pivotal trial of Ryoncil as part of 1L SR-aGvHD regimen initiation (adult expansion) -- SLIPPED: NCT07568535 (Ph3, n=180, rux +/- Ryoncil) still 'Not yet recruiting' on clinicaltrials.gov (est. start Aug 31 2026); first-patient-in not announced as of Oct 2 2026","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"MESO + BMT CTN collab PR 2025","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.4944522,"successTP":10.8004854,"baseTP":10.9511903,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":50.79}},"MGTX":{"name":"MeiraGTx Holdings","subtitle":"AAV gene therapy: AAV2-hAQP1 BTD RIX, AQUAx2 pivotal readout Q2'27, BLA mid-2027; bota-vec XLRP global filings 2026; AAV-GAD PD (Hologen/Reogen JV); Oberland royalty notes; runway into 2H'28","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":96.04,"netCashLocal":53.2,"cashPS":0.5539,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":1.18,"bull":2.82,"psychedelic_bull":4.74},"weightedTP":1.1,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.supportive_care.xerostomia_rix","oncology","oncology.supportive_care","ophthalmology.retina.retinitis_pigmentosa","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aqp1_salivary","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.rpgr_retinal","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.gad_parkinson"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.retinitis_pigmentosa","purity":72},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":70},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.xerostomia_rix","purity":57},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":36},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":29}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.xerostomia_rix","purity":92},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.retinitis_pigmentosa","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":46},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":42},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":23},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":12}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.xerostomia_rix","purity":135},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":67},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.retinitis_pigmentosa","purity":44},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":22},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":21},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":10}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":162,"totalTAM":22.077,"totalWTD":8.4352638},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"bota_vec","indication":"bota_vec_xlrp","title":"Bota-vec FDA pre-BLA / regulatory path alignment for XLRP (BLA/MAA filings on Phase 3 LUMEOS data)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Prior title premise ('LUMEOS primary miss') is superseded: Phase 3 LUMEOS was positive (statistically significant multi-domain vision gains, up to 45% of treated patients gaining >10 LLVA letters; 40% multi-endpoint responders). MeiraGTx reacquired bota-vec (AAV-RPGR) from Janssen on 2026-04-15 ($25M upfront) and is pursuing BLA/MAA/UK/Japan filings on LUMEOS data (Fast Track + Orphan Drug); potential launch 2027. No discrete FDA Type C meeting outcome disclosed.","_source":"https://investors.meiragtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/meiragtx-announces-acquisition-botaretigene-sparoparvovec-bota","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.319646133,"successTP":1.10582427,"baseTP":1.09887684,"swingPct":36,"successMove":1,"failMove":-35,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-19,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"aav_haqp1","indication":"aav_haqp1_rix","title":"AAV2-hAQP1 pivotal trial design / regulatory update (post-BTD Mar'26)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://investors.meiragtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/meiragtx-announces-fda-breakthrough-therapy-designation-aav2/","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.0745012588,"successTP":2.63550721,"baseTP":1.09887684,"swingPct":117,"successMove":70,"failMove":-46,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":26,"daysOut":null,"materiality":48},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bota_vec","indication":"bota_vec_xlrp","title":"Bota-vec XLRP BLA/MAA submissions (global regulatory filings guided for 2026 in the Q2'26 report; accel pathway on LUMEOS secondary endpoints) -- PULLED IN from H1 2027","type":"bla_submission","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://investors.meiragtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/meiragtx-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-and-operational","failTP":0.340663226,"successTP":1.97253044,"baseTP":1.09887684,"swingPct":30,"successMove":16,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"aav_haqp1","indication":"aav_haqp1_rix","title":"AAV2-hAQP1 RIX pivotal Ph2 AQUAx2 12-month topline (enrolment completed Q2 2026; company guides Q2 2027 readout -> BLA mid-2027) -- PULLED IN from Q2 2028","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://investors.meiragtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/meiragtx-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-and-operational","failTP":0.00000809437148,"successTP":2.52036577,"baseTP":1.09887684,"swingPct":229,"successMove":129,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":72,"daysOut":null,"materiality":95},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"aav_gad","indication":"aav_gad_pd","title":"AAV-GAD Ph2 PD topline (advanced PD, subthalamic delivery)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"low","failTP":0.556940318,"successTP":1.69423439,"baseTP":1.09887684,"swingPct":103,"successMove":54,"failMove":-49,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"Q1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"bota_vec","indication":"bota_vec_xlrp","title":"Bota-vec XLRP PDUFA decision","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"low","failTP":0.322448412,"successTP":2.38267509,"baseTP":1.09887684,"swingPct":188,"successMove":117,"failMove":-71,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":64,"daysOut":null,"materiality":41}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.79,"eeRel":2.1212,"peRel":1.4}},"MIRM":{"name":"Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Livmarli + Ctexli/Cholbam cholestatic franchise | FY26 guide $680-700M | Brelovitug HDV Ph3 AZURE-1 MET Sep'26, BLA H1'27 | Atebrioz FOP approved Sep'26 | Volixibat PSC NDA H1'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":67.96,"netCashLocal":-111.1,"cashPS":-1.6348,"tps":{"mega_bear":21.65,"bear":37.2,"base":63.34,"bull":98.36,"psychedelic_bull":143.28},"weightedTP":70.09,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.cholestasis_genetic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","infectious_disease.viral.hdv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.fop","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.ibat","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement.cdca_bile_acid","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement.cholic_acid","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_hbsag","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.kinase.alk2_acvr1","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":77},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cholestasis_genetic","purity":64},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":46},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hdv","purity":44},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":43},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":22},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.fop","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cholestasis_genetic","purity":90},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":73},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hdv","purity":51},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":29},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":27},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":25},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.fop","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.cholestasis_genetic","purity":101},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":71},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hdv","purity":50},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":25},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.psc","purity":24},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":17},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.fop","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":78,"rarePurityWtd":75,"optionality":42,"totalTAM":13.6445,"totalWTD":9.60020425},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"brelovitug","indication":"brelo_hdv","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-28 (HIT): Brelovitug AZURE-1 Ph3 chronic HDV -- primary MET in both arms (wk24 VR+ALT normalisation 56% 300mg QW / 45% 900mg Q4W vs 0% delayed-start, p<0.0001)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260928/en (Mirum PR Sep 28 2026: Primary Endpoint Met in Phase 3 AZURE-1)","_confidence":"high","failTP":60.7651272,"successTP":73.1846047,"baseTP":70.0883031,"swingPct":17,"successMove":4,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-10","asset":"livmarli","indication":"livmarli_alag_pfic","title":"LIVMARLI EXPAND Ph3 topline -- cholestatic pruritus in additional rare cholestatic conditions (label-expansion readout, Q4 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.mirumpharma.com/news/news-details/2026/Mirum-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","failTP":70.0883031,"successTP":70.0883031,"baseTP":70.0883031,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-20","asset":"brelovitug","indication":"brelo_hdv","title":"Brelovitug AZURE-4 Ph3 chronic HDV topline (second registrational readout, Q4 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":93,"_source":"https://ir.mirumpharma.com/news/news-details/2026/Mirum-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","failTP":61.6090209,"successTP":73.3649026,"baseTP":70.0883031,"swingPct":17,"successMove":5,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"livmarli","indication":"livmarli_alag_pfic","title":"Livmarli + bile acid franchise FY26 guide RAISED to $680-700M (from $630-650M) -- execution check","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"MIRM 2026 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":70.0883031,"successTP":70.0883031,"baseTP":70.0883031,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zilurgisertib","indication":"zilu_fop","title":"Atebrioz US launch (available Oct 2026) -- first quarter of FOP sales vs Sohonos/garetosmab","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.mirumpharma.com/news/news-details/2026/Mirum-Pharmaceuticals-and-Incyte-Announce-U-S--FDA-Approval-of-Atebrioz-zilurgisertib-for-Adult-and-Pediatric-Patients-with-Fibrodysplasia-Ossificans-Progressiva/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","failTP":69.6847724,"successTP":70.4904906,"baseTP":70.0883031,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"volixibat","indication":"volix_pbc","title":"Volixibat VANTAGE PBC cholestatic-pruritus data (enrollment COMPLETE; data Q1 2027)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://ir.mirumpharma.com/news/news-details/2026/Mirum-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","failTP":66.8560338,"successTP":72.0469802,"baseTP":70.0883031,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":54,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"volixibat","indication":"volix_psc","title":"Volixibat PSC cholestatic-pruritus NDA submission (SUPERSEDES the modelled EXPAND-PSC Ph3 initiation -- BTD + Orphan granted, pre-NDA meeting held, NDA targeted H1 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://ir.mirumpharma.com/news/news-details/2026/Mirum-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","failTP":68.1159138,"successTP":73.8057109,"baseTP":70.0883031,"swingPct":8,"successMove":5,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":409,"lenses":{"comparable":39.48}},"MLTX":{"name":"MoonLake Immunotherapeutics","subtitle":"Sonelokimab IL-17A/F nanobody | VELA HS Ph3 Sep'25 (primary hit; VELA-2 composite miss) | IZAR-1 PsA Ph3 W16 HIT Aug'26 | HS BLA SUBMITTED Sep 30'26 -> PDUFA ~H2'27 | Merck >$3B offer rejected Jan'26","currency":"USD","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":86.11,"netCashLocal":465.5,"cashPS":5.4059,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.46,"bear":14.97,"base":25.57,"bull":32.66,"psychedelic_bull":39.21},"weightedTP":25.1,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.palmoplantar_pustulosis"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.single_domain.il17af_trivalent","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.single_domain"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":70},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":52},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":46},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":39},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.palmoplantar_pustulosis","purity":32}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":91},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":73},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":56},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":44},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.palmoplantar_pustulosis","purity":16}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":132},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":72},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":51},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":28},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.palmoplantar_pustulosis","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":6}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":16,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":80,"totalTAM":37.017,"totalWTD":20.544796},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"sonelokimab","indication":"slk_psa","title":"REPORTED: IZAR-1 Ph3 PsA W16 HIT primary Aug 10 2026 — ACR50 42.1% (60mg + induction, biologic-naive); ACR20 66.5%, MDA 41.2%, PASI90 61%, HAQ-DI -0.427; no new safety signals. Trial stays blinded to W52 (full readout H1 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/10/3341679/0/en/moonlake-announces-positive-topline-results-from-the-phase-3-izar-1-trial-of-sonelokimab-in-psoriatic-arthritis-demonstrating-significant-improvements-across-all-clinical-endpoints.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":19.975371,"successTP":26.7540351,"baseTP":25.0959334,"swingPct":27,"successMove":7,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"sonelokimab","indication":"slk_hs","title":"REPORTED Sep 30 2026: Sonelokimab HS BLA SUBMITTED to FDA (adults + adolescents 12+; 8-K)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1821586/000121390026105240/ea0307097-8k_moonlake.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.3713489,"successTP":29.2964741,"baseTP":25.0959334,"swingPct":9,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":87,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"sonelokimab","indication":"slk_psa","title":"IZAR-2 Ph3 PsA W16 readout (TNF-IR head-to-head vs risankizumab/Skyrizi)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.moonlaketx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moonlake-immunotherapeutics-starts-phase-3-izar-program","_confidence":"high","failTP":19.7897206,"successTP":26.7019429,"baseTP":25.0959334,"swingPct":27,"successMove":6,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"sonelokimab","indication":"slk_hs","title":"Sonelokimab HS PDUFA decision (10mo standard review from Sep'26 BLA)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":94,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://ir.moonlaketx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moonlake-announces-week-40-results-its-phase-3-clinical-trials","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.3252077,"successTP":29.5792893,"baseTP":25.0959334,"swingPct":69,"successMove":18,"failMove":-51,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":52}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":34.33}},"MLYS":{"name":"Mineralys Therapeutics","subtitle":"Lorundrostat CYP11B2: Launch-HTN Ph3 HIT + Advance-HTN Ph2 HIT + Explore-CKD Ph2 HIT; NDA PDUFA Dec 22'26; Jun'26 bought out Tanabe royalties ($200M+$100M ms) via $150M raise @$26.50; cash ~$540M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":88.11,"netCashLocal":561.4,"cashPS":6.3716,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.69,"bear":27.64,"base":40.45,"bull":52.86,"psychedelic_bull":63.84},"weightedTP":41.17,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","nephrology.ckd.progression","nephrology","nephrology.ckd"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.cyp11b2","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"nephrology.ckd.progression","purity":146},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":73},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":54},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":27}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":105},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.progression","purity":95},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":52},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":48}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.resistant","purity":166},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":83},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.progression","purity":34},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":17}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":109,"totalTAM":41.59,"totalWTD":19.858464},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-03","asset":"lorundrostat","indication":"lor_htn","title":"REPORTED: Tanabe royalty buyout ($200M up + $100M ms) + $150M follow-on @ $26.50 -- worldwide royalty-free perpetual license to lorundrostat","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":95,"fail_apr":96,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://ir.mineralystx.com/news-events/press-releases","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Tanabe royalty buyout ($200M up + $100M ms) executed; concurrent $150M follow-on priced @ $26.50.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":33.9248119,"successTP":47.4278348,"baseTP":41.1723148,"swingPct":17,"successMove":8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"Jun 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-08","asset":"lorundrostat","indication":"lor_htn","title":"REPORTED: ESH 2026 -- lorundrostat Launch-HTN Ph3 + Explore-CKD Ph2 detailed data presentation","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/MLYS/mineralys-therapeutics-announces-presentation-of-new-data-from-the-kxhplf795kye.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"ENDO 2026 (Jun 8, 2026) lorundrostat late-breaking data presented, including proteomic analysis of heart failure biomarkers; Launch-HTN and Advance-HTN pivotal trials confirmed with robust systolic blood pressure reductions. No new safety concerns identified.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":30.6448206,"successTP":47.3583656,"baseTP":41.1723148,"swingPct":35,"successMove":13,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":54},{"date":"Dec 22 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-22","asset":"lorundrostat","indication":"lor_htn","title":"Lorundrostat uncontrolled/resistant HTN FDA PDUFA action date","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/MLYS/10-q-mineralys-therapeutics-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-efc930c21b46.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.3626123,"successTP":47.9776727,"baseTP":41.1723148,"swingPct":72,"successMove":17,"failMove":-55,"yourPoS":96,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":64},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"lorundrostat","indication":"lor_ckd","title":"Lorundrostat CKD Phase 3 initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://ir.mineralystx.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/100/mineralys-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial","_confidence":"medium","failTP":37.1347724,"successTP":46.0965522,"baseTP":41.1723148,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":35.8}},"MNKD":{"name":"MannKind Corporation","subtitle":"Inhaled DPI specialty | FY25 $349M: Tyvaso DPI royalty $128M (UTHR ~9%) + Afrezza $75M + FUROSCIX $23M Q4 (scPharma acq Oct 2025) | Pediatric Afrezza PDUFA May 29 2026","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":323.95,"netCashLocal":-306.1,"cashPS":-0.9449,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.3,"bear":1.16,"base":2.72,"bull":4.63,"psychedelic_bull":6.8},"weightedTP":3.01,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","respiratory.suppurative.ntm_lung","respiratory.suppurative"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.inhaled.dpi","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.inhaled","small_molecule.transporter.nkcc2_loop","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","_diversified.devices.insulin_patch_pump","_diversified","_diversified.devices"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":135},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":80},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":13},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.ntm_lung","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":142},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":84},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":26},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.ntm_lung","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":69},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":56},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":48},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":28},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":26},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":21},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":16},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":3},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative.ntm_lung","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.suppurative","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":4,"optionality":6,"totalTAM":233.203,"totalWTD":220.811287},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 29, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-29","asset":"afrezza_ped","indication":"t1d_ped_afrezza","title":"REPORTED: Afrezza pediatric PDUFA -- APPROVED ages 6+ (May 29 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/29/3303734/29517/en/mannkind-announces-fda-approval-of-afrezza-the-first-and-only-inhaled-mealtime-insulin-for-use-in-children-and-adolescents-aged-6-and-older-living-with-diabetes.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"APPROVED: FDA approved Afrezza for pediatric use on May 29, 2026 (per Ph3 INHALE-1). Catalyst resolved to success leg; pos/apr set to 100 across scenarios (approval is factual), pen retained as commercial-uptake lever. NOTE: approved label is ages 6+, narrower than the modeled 4-17 (ages 4-5 not included) -- minor SOM impact, flagged for review.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":2.95788235,"successTP":3.02549072,"baseTP":3.00695692,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Jul 26, 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-26","asset":"furoscix","indication":"hf_furoscix","title":"REPORTED (success): FUROSCIX ReadyFlow Autoinjector sNDA APPROVED Jul 24 2026 (ahead of the Jul 26 PDUFA) -- first/only autoinjector delivering IV-equivalent SC furosemide 80mg/mL in <10 sec (vs 5h on-body infusor); US commercial availability guided end-Aug 2026","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":98,"_source":"MannKind PR / FDA sNDA acceptance (PDUFA Jul 26 2026)","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.mannkindcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mannkind-announces-us-fda-accepts-review-its-supplemental-new","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_resolvedDate":"2026-07-31","_outcomeSource":"MannKind PR / FDA, Jul 24 2026","failTP":3.00695692,"successTP":3.00695692,"baseTP":3.00695692,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-02","asset":"tyvaso_dpi","indication":"ipf_dpi","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-02: UTHR IPF sNDA (submitted Jun 2026, TETON-1 + TETON-2) ACCEPTED by FDA, PDUFA late Apr 2027 -- NOTE it is for NEBULIZED Tyvaso; MNKD's royalty is DPI-only, so a DPI-for-IPF label still needs a separate UTHR step","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"UTHR PR 2026-09-02 (ir.unither.com: FDA accepts sNDA for nebulized Tyvaso in IPF)","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.00695692,"successTP":3.00695692,"baseTP":3.00695692,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tyvaso_dpi","indication":"pah_dpi","title":"FY26 revenue guide $450M+ (Tyvaso DPI royalty + Afrezza + FUROSCIX scaling)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"MannKind FY26 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.00695692,"successTP":3.00695692,"baseTP":3.00695692,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Apr 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"tyvaso_dpi","indication":"ipf_dpi","title":"UTHR nebulized Tyvaso IPF PDUFA (late Apr 2027) -- indirect for MNKD (royalty is on Tyvaso DPI; IPF DPI label not yet filed)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"UTHR PR 2026-09-02 (ir.unither.com: FDA accepts sNDA for nebulized Tyvaso in IPF)","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.00695692,"successTP":3.00695692,"baseTP":3.00695692,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":278,"lenses":{"comparable":1.35,"eeRel":0.1139}},"MNPR":{"name":"Monopar Therapeutics Inc.","subtitle":"ALXN1840 (tiomolibdate choline) Wilson disease -- rolling NDA initiated Jul'26, completion guided within months; Rare Pediatric Disease designation -> PRV on approval; uPAR radiopharm | Cash $138M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":8.56,"netCashLocal":134.3,"cashPS":15.6893,"tps":{"mega_bear":56.28,"bear":150.84,"base":232.8,"bull":276.65,"psychedelic_bull":303.27},"weightedTP":219.23,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","_platform.upar_radiopharm","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.binder_chelator.copper","small_molecule","small_molecule.binder_chelator","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.upar","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":200},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.upar_radiopharm","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":200},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.upar_radiopharm","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":200},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.upar_radiopharm","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":17,"totalTAM":4.722,"totalWTD":4.0391988},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"alxn1840","indication":"alxn_wilson","title":"ALXN1840 NDA submission COMPLETION for Wilson disease (KEY) -- rolling submission INITIATED Jul 22 2026, company guides completion within a few months -- not announced by Oct 9 (no 8-K since Aug 12); rolled to Q4 2026","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/22/3331283/0/en/Monopar-Initiates-Rolling-NDA-Submission-for-ALXN1840-in-Wilson-Disease.html","failTP":3.88160966,"successTP":3.70825212,"baseTP":219.232174,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-20,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":-20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"alxn1840","indication":"alxn_wilson","title":"ALXN1840 FDA PDUFA decision -- Wilson disease (approval also triggers a pediatric Priority Review Voucher under the Jun 30 2026 RPD designation)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_confidence":"high","failTP":7.17404418,"successTP":269.341614,"baseTP":219.232174,"swingPct":120,"successMove":23,"failMove":-97,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":98},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"mnpr101","indication":"mnpr101_solid","title":"MNPR-101-Lu/Zr Ph1 dose-escalation interim","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":219.232174,"successTP":219.232174,"baseTP":219.232174,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":189.48}},"MOLN":{"name":"Molecular Partners AG","subtitle":"Swiss DARPin platform | FY25 cash CHF 93M to 2028 | MP0712 Radio-DARPin DLL3 Ph1/2a SCLC (imaging Jan'26 promising) | MP0726 mesothelin imaging 2026 | Novartis (ensovibep historical) + Orano Med","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":35,"netCashLocal":79,"cashPS":2.2571,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.35,"bear":1.79,"base":2.75,"bull":2.92,"psychedelic_bull":3.25},"weightedTP":2.48,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.sclc","oncology","oncology.lung","_platform.darpin_collaborations","_platform"],"modalities":["radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.darpin_radioconjugate","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter","biologic.recombinant_protein.scaffold.darpin_multispecific","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.scaffold"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.darpin_collaborations","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.darpin_collaborations","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"_platform.darpin_collaborations","purity":0}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":256,"totalTAM":3.24264,"totalWTD":0.91118184},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"radio_darpin","indication":"mp0712_sclc","title":"MP0712 Radio-DARPin (DLL3, 212Pb) Ph1/2a INITIAL data -- guided 2026 at the H1'26 report (cohort 2 dose level now open); EFFICACY data guided 2027, so the dosimetry/initial read comes first","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"MOLN pipeline guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.17093853,"successTP":3.12547978,"baseTP":2.47955152,"swingPct":27,"successMove":18,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"radio_darpin","indication":"mp0712_sclc","title":"MP0712 Ph1/2a EFFICACY data in SCLC / DLL3+ NETs (company-guided 2027)","type":"phase2_data","severity":"high","failTP":2.06488081,"successTP":2.1600673,"baseTP":2.47955152,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.15}},"MPLT":{"name":"MapLight Therapeutics","subtitle":"CNS muscarinic: ML-007C-MA M1/M4 agonist + peripheral anticholinergic; Ph2 ZEPHYR schizophrenia MET primary Jul'26 (ES 0.37); Ph3 ZEPHYR-2 topline 2028; $150M PIPE Aug'26; cash ~$492M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":59.56,"netCashLocal":492.3,"cashPS":8.2656,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.72,"bear":11.53,"base":16.29,"bull":19,"psychedelic_bull":23.29},"weightedTP":14.77,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.neurodegeneration"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_m1_m4_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":134},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":67},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":66},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":33}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":166},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":83},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":34},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":17}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":186},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":93},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":7}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":86,"totalTAM":18.2425,"totalWTD":9.7948695},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-27","asset":"ml007","indication":"ml007_scz","title":"REPORTED: ZEPHYR Ph2 schizophrenia MET primary Jul 27 2026 -- 210/3 BID only, ES 0.37; pos moved to declared success 78/85, pen cut to 0.60 on sub-Cobenfy efficacy","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":85,"_note":"RESOLVED 2026-07-27: primary endpoint MET at 210/3 mg BID -- LS mean PANSS total -4.5 vs placebo at Week 5, effect size 0.37, p=0.015 (mITT, n=307 randomized 1:1:1). Secondaries hit: CGI-S ES 0.48 p=0.002; PANSS Positive Marder Factor ES 0.39 p=0.012; prespecified cognition in baseline-impaired ES 0.51 p=0.041. Safety clean: TEAEs mostly mild/cholinergic, no SAEs, no drug-related severe TEAEs, all-cause d/c 19.9%, GI d/c 2.0%. MISS: 330/6 mg QD numerically better than placebo but NOT significant on primary -- company will run an ADDITIONAL confirmatory trial of alternative dosing regimens alongside EoP2 FDA meeting. Treated as a technical hit with a commercial haircut: pos/apr to pre-declared success (78/85) because the approval path is de-risked; pen cut 1.00->0.60 base because ES 0.37 is well below Cobenfy's EMERGENT range and only one of two arms worked. Stock -65% (prevClose 35.23 -> 12.47) confirms the market read the magnitude, not the p-value. Source: MapLight PR + 8-K 2026-07-27 (globenewswire 3333379).","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/27/3333379/0/en/MapLight-Therapeutics-Announces-Positive-Topline-Results-from-Phase-2-ZEPHYR-Trial-of-ML-007C-MA-in-Schizophrenia.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.48408133,"successTP":17.6556052,"baseTP":14.7699931,"swingPct":63,"successMove":20,"failMove":-43,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":45},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"ml007","indication":"ml007_scz","title":"EoP2 FDA meeting outcome + start of Ph3 ZEPHYR-2 confirmatory trial (financed by Aug'26 $150M PIPE)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":72,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.6425818,"successTP":18.0378106,"baseTP":14.7699931,"swingPct":22,"successMove":11,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":66,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"ml007","indication":"ml007_adp","title":"VISTA Ph2 topline -- ML-007C-MA 210/3 BID in Alzheimer's disease psychosis","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":76,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":14.0264241,"successTP":15.4890818,"baseTP":14.7699931,"swingPct":10,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"ml007","indication":"ml007_scz","title":"Ph3 ZEPHYR-2 schizophrenia topline (registrational; company guides 2028)","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":93,"failTP":8.26437433,"successTP":19.5355089,"baseTP":14.7699931,"swingPct":76,"successMove":32,"failMove":-44,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":45}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":14.97},"readouts":[{"a":"ml007","ind":"ml007_scz","ds":"2026-07-27","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":8.70996353,"lo":0.568410517,"hi":16.1017489,"pBeatBest":0.1934,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12},{"a":"ml007","ind":"ml007_adp","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":13.3355888,"lo":-10.3780762,"hi":40.7787615,"pBeatBest":0.1692,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27},{"a":"ml007","ind":"ml007_scz","ds":"2028-06-30","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":7.6798113,"lo":-1.23545639,"hi":14.8863404,"pBeatBest":0.13625,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12}]},"MREO":{"name":"Mereo BioPharma Group plc","subtitle":"Setrusumab (Ultragenyx) OI Ph3 MISSED Dec25 -> FDA/MHRA peds path, update YE26; alvelestat PARTNERED Aug11'26 (Sentynl option: $40M on exercise, $435M milestones) | Cash $30M to late 27","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":159.6,"netCashLocal":30.1,"cashPS":0.1886,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0.64,"bull":1.43,"psychedelic_bull":2.18},"weightedTP":0.32,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteogenesis_imperfecta","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","respiratory.genetic.a1at_lung","respiratory","respiratory.genetic"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_sclerostin","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.enzyme.neutrophil_elastase","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteogenesis_imperfecta","purity":126},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.a1at_lung","purity":74},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":63},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":37}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteogenesis_imperfecta","purity":130},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.a1at_lung","purity":70},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":65},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":35}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteogenesis_imperfecta","purity":168},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":84},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.a1at_lung","purity":32},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":16}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":80,"totalTAM":8.69,"totalWTD":4.84122},"catalysts":[{"date":"August 11, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-11","asset":"alvel","indication":"alvel_aatd","title":"REPORTED: Alvelestat US partnership SIGNED -- Sentynl option & license (option fee now; $40M upfront+R&D on exercise, up to $435M milestones, double-digit tiered US royalties; MREO keeps ROW)","type":"partnership","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_confidence":"low","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Mereo signed an Option and License Agreement with Sentynl Therapeutics on Aug 11 2026 for US commercial and global manufacturing rights to alvelestat in AATD-LD. Mereo received a non-refundable option fee; on exercise Sentynl pays $40M in upfront and R&D payments, up to $435M in regulatory/commercial milestones, and double-digit tiered royalties on US net sales, and funds the alvelestat Phase 3 program (could initiate early 2027). Mereo retains rest-of-world rights. Resolved to catalyst success: base alvel.alvel_aatd pos 50->70, apr 62->75; envelope lifted monotonically. CAVEAT held in the down-scenarios: this is an OPTION, not an exercised license -- mega_bear/bear retain meaningful probability that the option lapses before exercise, so they were lifted only partially. Source: Mereo/Sentynl joint PR + 8-K Aug 11 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":0.211586093,"successTP":0.43158151,"baseTP":0.321489249,"swingPct":27,"successMove":14,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"setru","indication":"setru_oi","title":"Setrusumab FDA/MHRA pediatric-only path outcome (KEY) -- SLIPPED to YE 2026 (Mereo/Ultragenyx still engaging regulators per Q2 26 update)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":1.23543325,"baseTP":0.321489249,"swingPct":192,"successMove":142,"failMove":-50,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":62,"daysOut":null,"materiality":50},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"alvel","indication":"alvel_aatd","title":"Sentynl option EXERCISE + alvelestat AATD-LD Phase 3 initiation ($40M upfront/R&D to MREO)","type":"partnership","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":86,"_note":"Sentynl funds the Ph3 on exercise; company guided Ph3 could initiate early 2027. Option lapse without exercise is the downside leg.","failTP":0.2170358,"successTP":0.451174488,"baseTP":0.321489249,"swingPct":29,"successMove":16,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.31}},"MRK":{"name":"Merck & Co. Inc.","subtitle":"Keytruda $31.7B 2025 (48% revenue) | 2028 LOE cliff | Subq Keytruda Qlex bridge | Winrevair PAH ramping | Tulisokibart UC/CD Ph3","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2470,"netCashLocal":-46770,"cashPS":-18.9352,"tps":{"mega_bear":45.6,"bear":68.62,"base":101.63,"bull":144.37,"psychedelic_bull":207.03},"weightedTP":109.83,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.breast.tnbc.adjuvant","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.tnbc","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.adjuvant","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck","oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.gynecologic.cervical","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","oncology.lymphoma","infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.myeloid.mds","oncology.myeloid","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.vhl","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","_platform.delivery.io_subq_lcm","_platform","_platform.delivery","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","oncology.lung.sclc","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","ophthalmology.retina.dme","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","vaccine.protein_subunit.hpv","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","small_molecule.enzyme.dpp4","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.binder_chelator.rocuronium_cyclodextrin","small_molecule.binder_chelator","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.activin_inhibitor","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","small_molecule.enzyme.parp1_2","small_molecule.kinase.vegfr_multikinase","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.activin_iib_inhibitor","small_molecule.transcription_factor.hif2a","small_molecule.transcription_factor","vaccine.protein_subunit.pneumococcal","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.nectin4_mmae","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload","small_molecule.enzyme.pde3_pde4_dual","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.animal_health","peptide.protein_binder.pcsk9_oral","peptide","peptide.protein_binder","vaccine.protein_subunit.pneumococcal_21valent","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.b7h3","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cytokine","vaccine.therapeutic.mrna.neoantigen_individualized","vaccine.therapeutic","vaccine.therapeutic.mrna","biologic.antibody.trispecific.wnt_agonist","biologic.antibody.trispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"_platform.delivery.io_subq_lcm","purity":42},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":37},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":21},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":15},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.vhl","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":44},{"area":"_platform.delivery.io_subq_lcm","purity":39},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":22},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":19},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":13},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":11},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":10},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.vhl","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":31},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":8},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":8},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.msi_h","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.hpv","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.vhl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery.io_subq_lcm","purity":0},{"area":"_platform.delivery","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":8,"rarePurityWtd":9,"optionality":20,"totalTAM":427.01624,"totalWTD":355.14987},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 22, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-22","asset":"tulisokibart","indication":"tuli_uc","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-22: Tulisokibart ATLAS-UC Phase 3 induction HIT (anti-TL1A, ulcerative colitis) -- met primary + key secondary endpoints; already reflected in base pos 72/apr 80","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":86,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"ATLAS-UC induction-only Ph3 met primary (clinical remission by Modified Mayo at Wk12) + key secondary endpoints in moderate-to-severe UC; no new safety signals; first positive Ph3 induction for any anti-TL1A. NO catalyst was pre-declared, so applied a BOUNDED surprise move (tuli_uc base pos 60->72, apr 72->80; bear 40/52->48/58) rather than the full re-rate. FLAGGED: full re-rate to ~pos 78/apr 84 warranted pending maintenance-phase data + filing confirmation. Source: Merck PR + BusinessWire Jun 22 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":109.671351,"successTP":109.915299,"baseTP":109.832877,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"keytruda_subq","indication":"keysq_franchise","title":"REPORTED: Keytruda subQ FDA filing + approval (franchise extension)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.merck.com/news/fda-approves-mercks-keytruda-qlex-pembrolizumab-and-berahyaluronidase-alfa-pmph-injection-for-subcutaneous-use-in-adults-across-most-solid-tumor-indications-for-keytruda-pem/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA approved KEYTRUDA QLEX (pembrolizumab + berahyaluronidase alfa-pmph) for subcutaneous use across most solid tumor indications on Sept 19, 2025 -- expected franchise life-cycle extension; no valuation change.","failTP":106.154227,"successTP":112.328249,"baseTP":109.832877,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Jul 16 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-16","asset":"mk_0616","indication":"mk0616_lipids","title":"REPORTED: CORALreef Lipids/HeFH Ph3 HIT -> FDA APPROVED Jul 16 2026 as LIPFENDRA (oral PCSK9; LDL-C -56% / HeFH -59%)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"MRK pipeline","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.merck.com/news/mercks-lipfendra-enlicitide-is-the-first-and-only-once-daily-oral-pcsk9-inhibitor-approved-by-the-u-s-fda-to-reduce-ldl-c-in-adults-with-hypercholesterolemia/","_note":"2026-10-09 freshness: resolved as HIT (approval exceeds the pre-declared readout success 88/92; apr -> 100 on approval). CVOT (CORALreef Outcomes) remains the next label/uptake catalyst -- add when Merck guides a date.","failTP":109.053255,"successTP":110.054363,"baseTP":109.832877,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-19","asset":"intismeran","indication":"melanoma_adj","title":"REPORTED: INTerpath-001 Ph3 MET primary RFS + key secondary DMFS (Aug 19 2026) in resected stage IIB-IV melanoma with KEYTRUDA - first positive Ph3 for an individualized neoantigen therapy","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"failTP":109.091814,"successTP":110.028929,"baseTP":109.832877,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"keytruda","indication":"keytruda_urothelial","title":"REPORTED 2026-09: positive EU CHMP opinion for KEYTRUDA + Padcev as PERIOPERATIVE treatment of resectable muscle-invasive bladder cancer (KEYNOTE-905/EV-303: EFS, OS and pCR all significant) -- would be the first PD-1 + ADC regimen in MIBC in the EU regardless of cisplatin eligibility; EC decision to follow","type":"regulatory","failTP":109.832877,"successTP":109.832877,"baseTP":109.832877,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"remigromig","indication":"remi_dme","title":"Remigromig BAROLO second pivotal DME topline (n=1,054; primary completion ~Mar 2027) -- gates the BLA; watch the PDR/VH safety imbalance seen in BRUNELLO","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06957080","_confidence":"medium","failTP":109.733954,"successTP":109.903627,"baseTP":109.832877,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"intismeran","indication":"nsclc_adj","title":"Intismeran INTerpath-002 / INTerpath-009 adjuvant NSCLC Phase 3 readouts","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"failTP":109.372139,"successTP":110.225172,"baseTP":109.832877,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027-28","dateSort":"2028-01-30","asset":"ifinatamab_dxd","indication":"idxd_sclc","title":"I-DXd IDeate-Lung02 Ph3 (2L+ SCLC, n~540, OS primary; primary completion est. Jan 2028 per NCT06203210) -- the gating dataset after the Sep 25 2026 BLA withdrawal","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06203210","_confidence":"medium","failTP":109.354911,"successTP":110.251197,"baseTP":109.832877,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":65089,"lenses":{"comparable":72.95,"eeRel":0.9824,"peRel":0.1606},"readouts":[{"a":"tulisokibart","ind":"tuli_uc","ds":"2026-06-22","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":9.80566467,"lo":-3.90988321,"hi":17.9772474,"pBeatBest":0.20025,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7},{"a":"mk_0616","ind":"mk0616_lipids","ds":"2026-07-16","area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","endpoint":"ldl_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":44.8208763,"lo":1.21349519,"hi":78.299259,"pBeatBest":0.20345,"bestDrug":"evolocumab","bestValue":59},{"a":"intismeran","ind":"nsclc_adj","ds":"2027-12-31","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":7.34869074,"lo":2.65092971,"hi":12.7114194,"pBeatBest":0.1512,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"MRK_DE":{"name":"Merck KGaA, Darmstadt (Healthcare Division)","subtitle":"Healthcare-only model | EUR 8.6B / $9.6B 2025 (+5%) | Mavenclad MS + Erbitux + SpringWorks acq (Ogsiveo + Gomekli) + Bavencio decline | EXCLUDES Life Science (€10B) + Electronics (€4B)","currency":"EUR","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":436,"netCashLocal":-5914,"cashPS":-13.5642,"tps":{"mega_bear":29.77,"bear":52.47,"base":80.97,"bull":127.17,"psychedelic_bull":213.45},"weightedTP":92.31,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology.head_neck","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.skin.merkel_cell","oncology.skin","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","women_health.fertility.ivf","women_health","women_health.fertility","endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.sarcoma.nf1_pn","_established_products.mrk_de_heritage","_established_products","oncology.sarcoma.tgct","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune"],"modalities":["small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.cladribine_oral","small_molecule","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_egfr","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pdl1","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.ifn_beta","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","small_molecule.kinase.cmet","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.gonadotropin","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.gh","small_molecule.kinase.ampk_activator","small_molecule.gpcr.beta1_blocker","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.enzyme.gamma_secretase","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.kinase.mek","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.smac_mimetic","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","small_molecule.kinase.csf1r"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":75},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":37},{"area":"_established_products.mrk_de_heritage","purity":29},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4},{"area":"women_health.fertility.ivf","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.fertility","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.merkel_cell","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.nf1_pn","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.tgct","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":78},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":46},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":39},{"area":"_established_products.mrk_de_heritage","purity":30},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"women_health.fertility.ivf","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.fertility","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.merkel_cell","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.nf1_pn","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.tgct","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":35},{"area":"women_health.fertility.ivf","purity":33},{"area":"_established_products.mrk_de_heritage","purity":23},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":17},{"area":"women_health.fertility","purity":16},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":16},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.ras_wt","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":7},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.merkel_cell","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.cmet","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.nf1_pn","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.tgct","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":12,"rarePurityWtd":8,"optionality":4,"totalTAM":210.336,"totalWTD":202.168367},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 24 2024","dateSort":"2024-06-24","asset":"xevinapant","indication":"hnscc_la","title":"RESOLVED 2024-06-24 (FAIL): xevinapant programme TERMINATED -- Merck KGaA stopped TrilynX and X-Ray Vision (a post-operative radiotherapy trial, not a '2L MET salvage' study). pos/apr set to 0 (below declared fail 25/30: programme ended, not merely missed)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"low","_rationale":"TrilynX 1L FAILED Mar 2024; salvage Ph3 at lower probability.","_outcome":"fail","_sourceUrl":"https://www.emdserono.com/us-en/company/news/press-releases/update-on-xevinapant-program-2024-highlights-24-06-2024.html","failTP":92.308409,"successTP":94.0923467,"baseTP":92.308409,"swingPct":2,"successMove":2,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"pimicotinib","indication":"tgct","title":"Pimicotinib (Pimjetmi) TGCT US approval -- FDA accepted the NDA 12-Jan-2026; PDUFA undisclosed, not approved as of H1'26 report; ROLLED to Q4 2026 (standard-review inference). Canada approved Jun 2026; China launched","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"MANEUVER Ph3 TGCT positive 2024; BLA filed 2025.","_note":"Slipped: FDA accepted the pimicotinib TGCT NDA on Jan 12, 2026 (breakthrough therapy designation); approval decision still pending as of 2026-07-06 -- date rolled to H2 2026. Already approved in China Dec 2025. Source: https://www.emdgroup.com/en/news/pimicotinib-fda-filing-acceptance-12-01-2026.html","_source":"EMD Group release 2026-01-12 + Q2 2026 results","failTP":91.193753,"successTP":92.8240284,"baseTP":92.308409,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"cladribine_mg","indication":"mg","title":"Cladribine MyClad Ph3 gMG readout -- ROLLED from Sep'26: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT06463587) still RECRUITING with estimated primary completion 23-Aug-2028; 3-year study running to ~2030. FDA Fast Track granted Nov 2025","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":84,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Cladribine immunomodulation supports MG hypothesis; class peers Vyvgart/Ultomiris dominant.","_source":"clinicaltrials.gov NCT06463587","failTP":92.0658948,"successTP":92.4440107,"baseTP":92.308409,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":8973,"lenses":{"comparable":50.92,"eeRel":1.12,"peRel":0.8595},"readouts":[{"a":"cladribine_mg","ind":"mg","ds":"2028-12-31","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.59236974,"lo":-0.424621794,"hi":2.9827901,"pBeatBest":0.085,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59}]},"MRNA":{"name":"Moderna, Inc.","subtitle":"mRNA platform: COVID + RSV + flu vaccines + intismeran (cancer) + rare metabolic mRNA replacement","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":390,"netCashLocal":5425,"cashPS":13.9103,"tps":{"mega_bear":21.44,"bear":32.51,"base":50.57,"bull":66.11,"psychedelic_bull":81.6},"weightedTP":47.8,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","oncology","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia.propionic_acidemia","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia","metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia.methylmalonic_acidemia"],"modalities":["vaccine.mrna.covid","vaccine","vaccine.mrna","vaccine.mrna.rsv","vaccine.mrna.influenza","vaccine.mrna.multi_pathogen","vaccine.therapeutic.mrna.neoantigen_individualized","vaccine.therapeutic","vaccine.therapeutic.mrna","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.mrna.replacement_lnp","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.mrna"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":60},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":49},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":40},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":27},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":10},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia.methylmalonic_acidemia","purity":9},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia.propionic_acidemia","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":85},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":65},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":25},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia.propionic_acidemia","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia","purity":4},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia.methylmalonic_acidemia","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":99},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":20},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":16},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia.propionic_acidemia","purity":15},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.organic_acidemia.methylmalonic_acidemia","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":8},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":7,"rarePurityWtd":4,"optionality":40,"totalTAM":79.4109,"totalWTD":56.5922763},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-15","asset":"mrna_1083","indication":"combo","title":"RESOLVED 2026-04: mRNA-1083 flu/COVID combo AUTHORIZED in EU (mCOMBRIAX, adults 50+); US refile awaits FDA guidance post mFLUSIVA approval","type":"ema_approval","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.modernatx.com/en-US/research/product-pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","failTP":45.1121378,"successTP":46.4098416,"baseTP":47.8010972,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Jun 12, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-12","asset":"mresvia","indication":"rsv_adult","title":"REPORTED: FDA approved mRESVIA age expansion 18-59 high-risk (RSV LRTD) -- label expansion","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.modernatx.com/en-US/research/product-pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":47.8010972,"successTP":47.8010972,"baseTP":47.8010972,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 5, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"mrna_1010","indication":"flu","title":"REPORTED: mRNA-1010 (mFLUSIVA) FDA APPROVED Aug 5, 2026 - adults 50+ (full 50-64, accelerated 65+)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":99,"_source":"https://www.patientcareonline.com/view/moderna-investigational-influenza-vaccine-meets-safety-efficacy-endpoints-across-phase-3-trials","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-08-05: FDA APPROVED mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) for adults 50+ -- first US mRNA influenza vaccine (full approval 50-64, accelerated 65+); follows unanimous 9-0 VRBPAC vote Jun 18 2026. Source: Pharmacy Times 2026-08-05.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":46.1895888,"successTP":48.3507808,"baseTP":47.8010972,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"intismeran","indication":"melanoma_adj","title":"REPORTED: INTerpath-001 Ph3 MET primary RFS + key secondary DMFS (Aug 19, 2026) - first positive Ph3 for an individualized neoantigen therapy","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.merck.com/news/moderna-merck-announce-5-year-data-for-intismeran-autogene-in-combination-with-keytruda-pembrolizumab-demonstrated-sustained-improvement-in-the-primary-endpoint-of-recurrence-free-survival-i/","_confidence":"high","failTP":38.2601704,"successTP":50.8913226,"baseTP":47.8010972,"swingPct":26,"successMove":6,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"Oct 24 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-24","asset":"intismeran","indication":"melanoma_adj","title":"INTerpath-001 full Ph3 data -- ESMO 2026 LBA1 Presidential Symposium + investor webcast (BLA path: 'engage with regulators')","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":92,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Moderna PR 2026-09-21","_sourceUrl":"https://www.newswire.com/news/moderna-announces-late-breaking-data-to-be-presented-at-esmo-congress-2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":44.4259033,"successTP":50.8913226,"baseTP":47.8010972,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"mrna_3927","indication":"pa","title":"mRNA-3927 pivotal Phase 2 propionic acidemia data (Recordati partnership)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.geneonline.com/moderna-recordati-strategic-alliance-mrna3927-propionic-acidemia/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":43.6058678,"successTP":50.2714378,"baseTP":47.8010972,"swingPct":14,"successMove":5,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":1930,"lenses":{"comparable":81.6}},"MRNS":{"name":"Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (acq. Immedica Pharma Q1 2025)","subtitle":"PRIVATE post-Immedica acq Q1 25 ($151M, delisted Apr 25): Ztalmy ganaxolone GABA-A neurosteroid FDA Mar 22 first-ever Rx CDKL5 deficiency disorder; FY24 $33M ramping","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.dee.cdkl5","cns","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_a_neurosteroid","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.cdkl5","purity":100},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.cdkl5","purity":100},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.cdkl5","purity":100},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":100},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0.63275,"totalWTD":0.63275},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":45},"MTP":{"name":"Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corp. (private; wholly-owned by Mitsubishi Chemical Group, ex-TSE 4508 delisted Mar 2020)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- Japanese pharma 100% Mitsubishi Chemical Group | Edaravone Radicava ALS + Argatroban + Tabrecta JP only","currency":"JPY","country":"JP","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.als","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.porphyria","immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","immunology.autoimmune","cns.injury.spinal_cord_injury","cns.injury"],"modalities":["small_molecule.redox.free_radical_scavenger","small_molecule","small_molecule.redox","small_molecule.transporter.sglt2","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.enzyme.dpp4_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.gpcr.s1p_modulator","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.mc1r_agonist","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_rgma","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":167},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":83},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":25},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":12},{"area":"cns.injury.spinal_cord_injury","purity":4},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":2},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":171},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":85},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":25},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":13},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":1},{"area":"cns.injury.spinal_cord_injury","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":113},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":56},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":53},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":26},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria.epp","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":9},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.porphyria","purity":8},{"area":"cns.injury.spinal_cord_injury","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":5},{"area":"cns.injury","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":188.4849,"totalWTD":183.946475},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":770},"MUNDIPHARMA":{"name":"Mundipharma","subtitle":"UK private global network (Sackler $7.4B settlement 2025 → forced Mundipharma sale 2026-27 ($1.5B contributed)) AMR + biosimilars + emerging markets specialist; Rezzayo (rezafungin) GLOBAL rights...","currency":"USD","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.fungal","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease.bacterial","oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns","cns.pain"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antifungal.echinocandin_long_acting","small_molecule","small_molecule.antifungal","small_molecule.antibacterial.povidone_antiseptic","small_molecule.antibacterial","small_molecule.enzyme.pnp","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_diversified","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_full_agonist_mu_abuse_deterrent","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.antibacterial.beta_lactam","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":55},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":40},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":30},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":28},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":20},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":55},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":40},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal.invasive","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":30},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":28},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":20},{"area":"infectious_disease.fungal","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptcl","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":6,"rarePurityWtd":6,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":16.855,"totalWTD":16.855},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":2000},"NAMS":{"name":"NewAmsterdam Pharma","subtitle":"Obicetrapib CETP inhibitor | EC approved Sep 2026 (Ubeslo/Evlarco, Menarini) | PREVAIL CVOT ongoing","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":115,"netCashLocal":729,"cashPS":6.3391,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.71,"bear":13.66,"base":25.55,"bull":41.49,"psychedelic_bull":65.71},"weightedTP":28.92,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.cetp","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":106},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":86},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":53},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":43},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":137},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":68},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":63},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":31},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":195},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":97},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":116,"totalTAM":148.88,"totalWTD":68.93607},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-23","asset":"obi_fdc","indication":"ldl_fdc","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-23 (HIT): CHMP adopted a POSITIVE opinion recommending marketing authorisation for Evlarco (obicetrapib + ezetimibe FDC) and Ubeslo (obicetrapib monotherapy), on BROADWAY / BROOKLYN / TANDEM -- up to 40% LDL-C reduction on monotherapy and ~50% on the FDC vs placebo, tolerability comparable to placebo. Menarini holds EU commercialisation; NAMS takes tiered double-digit royalties plus up to E833M of milestones","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"NewAmsterdam/Menarini PR 2026-07-24 (CHMP positive opinion)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/24/3332807/0/en/NewAmsterdam-Pharma-and-Menarini-Group-Receive-Positive-CHMP-Opinion-Recommending-Marketing-Authorization-for-Ubeslo-Obicetrapib-Monotherapy-and-Evlarco-Obicetrapib-Plus-Ezetimibe-.html","_note":"CHMP positive opinion 2026-07-24 (Evlarco, obi 10mg + ezetimibe 10mg FDC). EC decision H2 2026 formality. Precursor de-risk applied to apr (partial); full success awaits EC grant. Menarini holds EU commercialization; CHMP opinion triggers no milestone payment (cash unchanged).","failTP":21.0997585,"successTP":31.7618945,"baseTP":28.9159513,"swingPct":33,"successMove":9,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":98,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-01","asset":"obi_mono","indication":"ldl_mono","title":"REPORTED: CHMP POSITIVE 2026-07-24: Obicetrapib monotherapy (Ubeslo) EMA approval -- CHMP recommended MA for primary hypercholesterolemia; EC final decision H2 2026 (formality, ~67d)","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"NewAmsterdam/Menarini PR 2026-07-24 (CHMP positive opinion)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/24/3332807/0/en/NewAmsterdam-Pharma-and-Menarini-Group-Receive-Positive-CHMP-Opinion-Recommending-Marketing-Authorization-for-Ubeslo-Obicetrapib-Monotherapy-and-Evlarco-Obicetrapib-Plus-Ezetimibe-.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-07-24: CHMP adopted POSITIVE opinion recommending MA for Ubeslo (obicetrapib mono) + Evlarco (obicetrapib+ezetimibe FDC) in primary hypercholesterolemia. EC final decision pending ~H2 2026 (~67d clock). Source: NewAmsterdam/Menarini 2026-07-24.","_rationale":"EMA approval decision expected in H2 2026 alongside already-tracked FDC approval","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":23.4146994,"successTP":31.9268757,"baseTP":28.9159513,"swingPct":26,"successMove":9,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-21","asset":"obi_fdc","indication":"ldl_fdc","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-21 (HIT): European Commission granted marketing authorisation for Evlarco (obicetrapib/ezetimibe FDC) and Ubeslo (obicetrapib 10 mg) -- EU + Iceland/Liechtenstein/Norway, primary hypercholesterolaemia (HeFH + non-familial) / mixed dyslipidaemia; mid-teens EUR M milestone to NAMS, tiered low-double-digit to mid-20s royalties (8-K Sep 21 2026)","type":"ema_approval","fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":97,"success_apr":98,"_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001936258/000119312526396716/nams-20260921.htm","failTP":21.0997585,"successTP":31.7884893,"baseTP":28.9159513,"swingPct":33,"successMove":9,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":98,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-29","asset":"alzheimer","indication":"alz","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-29 (HIT): SPINOZA Ph2(b) of obicetrapib in preclinical Alzheimer's (NCT07794670, n~400, NAMS-sponsored) -- first participant dosed; recruiting per clinicaltrials.gov. AAIC 2026 p-tau217 biomarker data (Jul 12-15, p=0.025) preceded","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":20,"success_apr":20,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NAMS/new-amsterdam-pharma-highlights-2025-achievements-and-outlines-2026-rlyu10c2gssd.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company plans to start first dedicated Alzheimer's trial in 2026","failTP":28.9130748,"successTP":28.9170656,"baseTP":28.9159513,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":20,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"prevail","indication":"cvot","title":"PREVAIL CVOT pre-specified interim analysis (topline 1Q 2027) -- gates US obicetrapib path","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"NewAmsterdam Q1 2026 corporate update","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001936258/000119312526210283/nams-ex99_1.htm","_addedAt":"2026-07-06T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"PREVAIL CVOT pre-specified interim guided 4Q 2026 (results 1Q 2027); blinded Yr1 MACE consistent with BROADWAY, Yr1->Yr2 rate lower than expected; positive CVOT opens US NDA path (currently CVOT-gated, no US filing)","failTP":25.9805515,"successTP":30.9811024,"baseTP":28.9159513,"swingPct":17,"successMove":7,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Year-end 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"rubens","indication":"t2d","title":"RUBENS Phase 3 trial topline data (T2D/metabolic syndrome)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NAMS/new-amsterdam-pharma-highlights-2025-achievements-and-outlines-2026-rlyu10c2gssd.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company expects topline data by year-end 2026 from RUBENS Phase 3 enrolling Dec 2025","failTP":28.4381572,"successTP":29.4377432,"baseTP":28.9159513,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":20.36},"readouts":[{"a":"prevail","ind":"cvot","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","endpoint":"ldl_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":33.0810748,"lo":-7.19376898,"hi":75.4704826,"pBeatBest":0.1418,"bestDrug":"evolocumab","bestValue":59},{"a":"rubens","ind":"t2d","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","endpoint":"hba1c_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":0.926778139,"lo":-0.544497885,"hi":2.3963908,"pBeatBest":0.07715,"bestDrug":"tirzepatide 15mg","bestValue":2.07}]},"NATCOPHARM":{"name":"Natco Pharma Limited","subtitle":"Indian specialty generics | FY25 INR 47.8B revenue EBITDA INR 25.5B (53% margin) | Tamiflu authorized generic + oncology copaxone + anti-malarials | India + US + EM exports","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":179,"netCashLocal":10000,"cashPS":55.8659,"tps":{"mega_bear":448.6,"bear":701.12,"base":948.6,"bull":1494.97,"psychedelic_bull":2206.7},"weightedTP":1046.28,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.us_generics","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.india_specialty_generics","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q1 FY26 (Boryung renal/oncology update)","dateSort":"2026-03-31","asset":"natco_specialty_generics","indication":"natco_div","title":"REPORTED (routine disclosure): Natco Pharma quarterly results released on the normal reporting calendar. Figures were NOT re-derived at this review -- flagged here only because the marker had gone overdue. No valuation consequence: the asset is a commercial diversified bucket with pos/apr pinned at 100","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Natco IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Boryung Corporation (Natco's partner/subsidiary) reported Q1 2026 renal revenue growth and Phase 2 approval for oncology candidate BR2002; initiated first global CDMO supply deal with Alimta to Lotus ","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":1046.28492,"successTP":1046.28492,"baseTP":1046.28492,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":580,"lenses":{"comparable":998.53,"peRel":1.1662}},"NBIX":{"name":"Neurocrine Biosciences","subtitle":"Ingrezza FY26 guide raised to $2.825-2.875B + Crenessity $184M Q2'26 + VYKAT XR (SLNO $2.9B, closed 18-May-26) | Q2'26 rev >$950M (+~40%) | Osavampator + direclidine Ph3 both 2H'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":101.65,"netCashLocal":482,"cashPS":4.7418,"tps":{"mega_bear":114.05,"bear":163.77,"base":199.53,"bull":270.9,"psychedelic_bull":330.86},"weightedTP":214.3,"meta":{"areas":["cns.movement.tardive_dyskinesia","cns","cns.movement","endocrine.adrenal.cah","endocrine","endocrine.adrenal","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.vmat2","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.enzyme.cyp11b1","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.ion_channel.ampa_modulator","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_m1_m4_agonist","small_molecule.ion_channel.k_atp_opener"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":88},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":71},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":27},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":27},{"area":"cns.movement.tardive_dyskinesia","purity":25},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":13},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":10},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.movement.tardive_dyskinesia","purity":57},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":35},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":29},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":29},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":26},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":23},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":21},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":21},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":13}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.movement.tardive_dyskinesia","purity":138},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":69},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":25},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":14},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":13},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":6}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":17,"rarePurityWtd":36,"optionality":130,"totalTAM":56.055,"totalWTD":24.3700325},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 18 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-18","asset":"vykat","indication":"pws","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED 2026-05-18 -- Soleno acquisition CLOSED ($2.9B); VYKAT XR contributed $54M net sales in Q2'26 (partial quarter; $94M pro-forma full quarter)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurocrine-biosciences-completes-acquisition-of-soleno-therapeutics-302774688.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"$2.9B Soleno acquisition closing mid-2026 with commercial infrastructure integration","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Neurocrine completed the $2.9B ($53/share) acquisition of Soleno on May 18, 2026; Soleno now a wholly-owned subsidiary and VYKAT XR integrated into NBIX commercial portfolio. VYKAT XR generated $190M 2025 rev ($92M Q4). Milestone already reflected in assumptions (pos/apr 100) -- no scenario change.","failTP":214.302632,"successTP":214.302632,"baseTP":214.302632,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"pipeline","indication":"neuro_pipe","title":"NBIP-1435 (CRF1 antagonist CAH) Phase 2 initiation -- ROLLED: \"shortly\" per Q2 call, not yet announced","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":20,"success_apr":25,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/neurocrine-biosciences-maps-2026-execution-040340173.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Long-acting injectable CRF1 antagonist planned to move into Phase 2/3 later in 2026","failTP":214.201288,"successTP":214.34995,"baseTP":214.302632,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"osav","indication":"mdd","title":"Osavampator MDD Phase 3 data -- ROLLED from early 2027: company re-guided key Ph3 readouts to 2H 2027 (Q2'26 call)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"failTP":210.241309,"successTP":216.341792,"baseTP":214.302632,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"direc","indication":"schizo","title":"Direclidine (NBI-568) schizophrenia Phase 3 data -- ROLLED from Q1 2027: company re-guided key Ph3 readouts to 2H 2027 (Q2'26 call)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":75,"failTP":209.581251,"successTP":217.892038,"baseTP":214.302632,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":2700,"lenses":{"comparable":130.47,"eeRel":1,"peRel":0.7631},"readouts":[{"a":"direc","ind":"schizo","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":3.16305051,"lo":-2.11177038,"hi":14.1397379,"pBeatBest":0.07715,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12}]},"NBTX":{"name":"Nanobiotix (J&J partnered)","subtitle":"JNJ-1900 (NBTXR3) radioenhancer + RT: NANORAY-312 Ph3 H&N (J&J sponsor) amended May'26, final analysis sooner; CONVERGE Ph2 NSCLC ORR 85.7% (n=7); EUR 86M raise, runway to 2029; J&J buyout talk","currency":"USD","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":44,"netCashLocal":129.8,"cashPS":2.95,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.95,"bear":2.74,"base":4.36,"bull":6.48,"psychedelic_bull":8.7},"weightedTP":4.31,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.head_neck.hnscc","oncology","oncology.head_neck","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["radiopharmaceutical.radioenhancer.hafnium_oxide","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.radioenhancer"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":15}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":24}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.head_neck.hnscc","purity":153},{"area":"oncology.head_neck","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":24}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":177,"totalTAM":37.5255,"totalWTD":13.538775},"catalysts":[{"date":"2027-2028","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"nbtxr3","indication":"nbtxr3_hnscc","title":"NANORAY-312 Ph3 HNSCC accelerated topline (post May'26 protocol amendment)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/Tipranks/1735996/nanobiotix-fast-tracks-pivotal-head-and-neck-cancer-trial-with-fda-backed-protocol-shift/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.4595719,"successTP":5.76811871,"baseTP":4.31370707,"swingPct":77,"successMove":34,"failMove":-43,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":44}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5.63}},"NERV":{"name":"Minerva Neurosciences, Inc.","subtitle":"Roluperidone (MIN-101) 5-HT2A + sigma-2 for schizophrenia negative symptoms: FDA CRL Feb 24; $200M financing Oct 25 -> confirmatory Ph3 H2 26 init; Ph3 week-12 readout H2 27 | Cash $78M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":43.3,"netCashLocal":78.2,"cashPS":1.806,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.68,"bear":1.65,"base":3.86,"bull":5.77,"psychedelic_bull":7.22},"weightedTP":2.86,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.serotonin_sigma_dual","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":200},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":200},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":200},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":74,"totalTAM":12.2625,"totalWTD":7.0632},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"rolu","indication":"rolu_schiz_neg","title":"Roluperidone confirmatory Ph3 trial init / first patient dosed","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.211883641,"successTP":0.157163331,"baseTP":2.85850271,"swingPct":-1,"successMove":-28,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":-28,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rolu","indication":"rolu_schiz_neg","title":"$200M PIPE tranche milestones (significant dilution)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.211883641,"successTP":0.157163331,"baseTP":2.85850271,"swingPct":-1,"successMove":-28,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":-28,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-11-30","asset":"rolu","indication":"rolu_schiz_neg","title":"Roluperidone Ph3 Week-12 interim efficacy (FDA discussion trigger)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.281774935,"successTP":5.27164648,"baseTP":2.85850271,"swingPct":174,"successMove":84,"failMove":-90,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":35,"daysOut":null,"materiality":93}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.9},"readouts":[{"a":"rolu","ind":"rolu_schiz_neg","ds":"2027-11-30","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":7.21473245,"lo":-1.57864546,"hi":14.6296346,"pBeatBest":0.1219,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12}]},"NEU":{"name":"Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited","subtitle":"Australian rare neurodev | H1 CY26 Daybue royalty US$23.3M (+29%); FY26 guide RAISED US$53-56M (Acadia sales US$480-510M); STIX 40% of US pts; CHMP+ Jun'26, Germany Q4'26 | NNZ-2591 Koala Ph3 PMS","currency":"AUD","country":"AU","region":"OCEANIA","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":129,"netCashLocal":287,"cashPS":2.2248,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.45,"bear":7.07,"base":10.17,"bull":14.87,"psychedelic_bull":23.77},"weightedTP":10.88,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","cns","cns.neurodevelopmental","cns.neurodevelopmental.other"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.igf1_analog","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.other","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.other","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":6.228,"totalWTD":6.228},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"nnz_2591","indication":"nnz_pms","title":"RESOLVED: NNZ-2591 pivotal trial design alignment with FDA (Phelan-McDermid lead)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FDA alignment on single Phase 3 KOALA trial design/endpoints achieved (co-primaries VABS-3 Receptive + PMSA-C); Fast Track granted. KOALA Phase 3 (NCT07281079, ~160 children) began 2025-11-12 with first patient dosed announced 2026-02-06 -- confirming regulatory alignment resolved favorably. Primary completion est. Oct 2027.","_source":"https://www.neurenpharma.com/pdf/9b071c29-d97e-4ac0-9ae4-b34d79962c27/First-patient-dosed-in-Neuren-PMS-Phase-3-trial.pdf","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.8822335,"successTP":10.8822335,"baseTP":10.8822335,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"daybue_royalty","indication":"daybue_rett","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-05: H1 CY26 results -- royalty US$23.3M (+29%), Q2 record Acadia DAYBUE sales US$125M (+30%); FY26 royalty guidance RAISED US$50-54M -> US$53-56M; first 15c fully franked dividend; cash A$287M","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Neuren IR","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://neurenpharma.com/investor-centre/","failTP":10.8822335,"successTP":10.8822335,"baseTP":10.8822335,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"daybue_royalty","indication":"daybue_rett","title":"REPORTED 2026-08: European Commission APPROVED DAYBU (trofinetide) for Rett syndrome age>=5 -- first EU Rett therapy; Acadia now in national pricing/reimbursement, German launch guided early 2027","type":"ema_approval","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://acadia.com/en-us/media/news-releases/european-commission-approves-daybu-trofinetide-as-the-first-and-only-treatment-for-neurobehavioral-symptoms-of-rett-syndrome-in-the-european-union","_sourceUrl":"https://neurenpharma.com/investor-centre/","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"CHMP positive opinion adopted late June 2026; company guides Germany launch early Q4 2026 subject to EC approval","failTP":10.8822335,"successTP":10.8822335,"baseTP":10.8822335,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep-Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"daybue_royalty","indication":"daybue_rett","title":"DAYBUE (trofinetide) Japan Phase 3 results -- guided Sep-Nov 2026 (Acadia/partner; opens the Japan royalty territory)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Neuren H1 CY26 presentation (5 Aug 2026)","_sourceUrl":"https://neurenpharma.com/investor-centre/","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"H1 CY26 presentation states Japan Phase 3 results expected September-November 2026","failTP":10.8822335,"successTP":10.8822335,"baseTP":10.8822335,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":42,"lenses":{"comparable":3.96,"eeRel":0.0865,"peRel":0.2554}},"NKTR":{"name":"Nektar Therapeutics","subtitle":"Treg biologic rezpegaldesleukin | ZENITH-AD Ph3 started Jul'26 (AD-1/2 naive, AD-3 experienced) | AA registrational Ph3 design final, starts early 2027 | cash $1.02B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":34.14,"netCashLocal":1023.4,"cashPS":29.9766,"tps":{"mega_bear":23.45,"bear":26.91,"base":46.43,"bull":82.08,"psychedelic_bull":102.51},"weightedTP":54.07,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il2","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il15"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":68},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":57},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":49},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":33},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":9}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":95},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":66},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":66},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":99},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":84},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":84},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":30},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.2l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":34,"rarePurityWtd":31,"optionality":290,"totalTAM":42.241,"totalWTD":10.8210365},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 20 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-20","asset":"rezpeg_aa","indication":"aa","title":"REPORTED 2026-04-20: REZOLVE-AA 52-week extension data presented (durability of hair regrowth + long-term safety in severe AA)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"Nektar IR Apr 2026 / AAD 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"52-week extension confirmed durable hair regrowth + safety signal in severe-to-very-severe AA. De-risks AA path to Ph3.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":52.1723576,"successTP":55.0443634,"baseTP":54.0719146,"swingPct":6,"successMove":2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Q2/Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"rezpeg_aa","indication":"aa","title":"REPORTED: FDA End-of-Phase 2 meeting for rezpegaldesleukin in alopecia areata -- alignment on Ph3 program design","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":62,"_source":"Nektar IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"medium","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-07: FDA EoP2 interactions concluded with alignment on a SINGLE registrational Ph3 in alopecia areata; however Ph3 START now guided early 2027 (slipped from 2026). Alignment achieved, program on track but later. Source: BioPharma Dive.","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":51.8541636,"successTP":55.2205603,"baseTP":54.0719146,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"rezpeg_ad","indication":"ad","title":"REPORTED: ZENITH-AD Phase 3 initiation in mod-severe atopic dermatitis (Nektar Q1'26 guidance: by July 2026)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/data-from-phase-2b-rezolve-ad-and-rezolve-aa-studies-of-rezpegaldesleukin-presented-at-2026-american-academy-of-dermatology-annual-meeting-302727838.html","_confidence":"high","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-07-21: Phase 3 ZENITH AD program (ZENITH AD-1 + AD-2 registrational) STARTED for rezpegaldesleukin in mod-severe atopic dermatitis; initial data ~mid-2028. Source: Nektar IR 2026-07-21.","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":35.4997302,"successTP":60.1625299,"baseTP":54.0719146,"swingPct":14,"successMove":3,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"rezpeg_aa","indication":"aa","title":"REZOLVE-AA 24-week OFF-TREATMENT observation data -- key durability readout for AA franchise","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":70,"_source":"Nektar IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"high","failTP":51.4044029,"successTP":55.5755498,"baseTP":54.0719146,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"rezpeg_aa","indication":"aa","title":"Rezpegaldesleukin single registrational Phase 3 initiation in severe alopecia areata (design finalized post-FDA alignment; company guides early 2027)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.nektar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/nektar-therapeutics-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial","_confidence":"high","failTP":50.698874,"successTP":52.3440344,"baseTP":54.0719146,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":55.94}},"NKTX":{"name":"Nkarta, Inc.","subtitle":"NKX019 allo CD19 CAR-NK: Ntrust-2 myositis + SSc first data at ACR Nov 8-11 '26; Ntrust-1 LN Ph1; outpatient + redose | NKX101 deprioritized | Cash $243.2M (Q2'26) to 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":71.3,"netCashLocal":243.2,"cashPS":3.4109,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.83,"bear":3.11,"base":3.73,"bull":4.73,"psychedelic_bull":6.03},"weightedTP":3.84,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_nk_cd19","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_nk_nkg2d"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":129},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":64},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":49},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":133},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":66},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":51},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":121},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":64},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":61},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":7}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":368,"totalTAM":19.1908,"totalWTD":4.1000828},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"nkx019","indication":"nkx019_ln","title":"NKX019 Ntrust-1 LN initial Ph1 efficacy/safety -- UNCONFIRMED: no LN presentation in the Sep 8 2026 ACR line-up","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"high","failTP":3.38204643,"successTP":3.98501097,"baseTP":3.84073695,"swingPct":11,"successMove":3,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"Nov 8-11 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-08","asset":"nkx019","indication":"nkx019_sle","title":"NKX019 initial autoimmune data at ACR Convergence 2026 -- myositis oral Nov 8, SSc poster Nov 9, all-indication safety oral Nov 11","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"high","failTP":3.3025028,"successTP":3.97877339,"baseTP":3.84073695,"swingPct":13,"successMove":3,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.86},"readouts":[{"a":"nkx019","ind":"nkx019_sle","ds":"2026-11-08","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.4693638,"lo":-15,"hi":56.7785987,"pBeatBest":0.084,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"NMRA":{"name":"Neumora Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Navacaprant MDD DISCONTINUED Jun'26 (KOASTAL-2+3 failed) | NMRA-511 V1aR: MAD expansion data Q4'26, AD-agitation Ph2 start by YE'26 | M4 Ph1 data H2'26 | Cash $116.8M to Q3'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":182,"netCashLocal":116.8,"cashPS":0.6418,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.22,"bear":0.59,"base":1.06,"bull":1.76,"psychedelic_bull":2.53},"weightedTP":0.76,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.kappa_opioid_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.v1ar_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_m4_pam"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":83},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":68},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":42},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":42},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":33},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":15}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":69},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":66},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":34},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":31},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":142},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":71},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":34},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":29},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":24},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":571,"totalTAM":36.1865,"totalWTD":5.39599},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"nava","indication":"nava_mdd","title":"REPORTED: Navacaprant KOASTAL-2 + KOASTAL-3 Ph3 MDD monotherapy joint topline (DOMINANT BINARY)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeNote":"RESOLVED 2026-06-15: KOASTAL-2 + KOASTAL-3 both FAILED primary + key secondary endpoints; navacaprant DISCONTINUED + ~35% workforce cut. Source: Neumora PR 2026-06-15.","failTP":0.758881807,"successTP":1.39374739,"baseTP":0.758881807,"swingPct":84,"successMove":84,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"nmra511","indication":"511_ad_agi","title":"NMRA-511 V1aR Phase 2 AD-agitation study initiation (guided by YE 2026; MAD expansion-cohort data first, Q4 2026)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.372719527,"successTP":0.577498007,"baseTP":0.758881807,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"nmra861","indication":"861_schiz","title":"M4 franchise (NMRA-861/-898) comprehensive update + NMRA-898 Ph1 schizophrenia data (H2 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.67210405,"successTP":0.743736817,"baseTP":0.758881807,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.76}},"NOVO":{"name":"Novo Nordisk A/S","subtitle":"GLP-1 franchise (Ozempic+Wegovy DKK 206B 2025) | CagriSema NDA filed Dec'25, FDA decision H2'26 (REDEFINE-4 H2H miss) | Ziltivekimab ZEUS MISSED Jul 31'26 (MACE HR 0.99, Q3 impairment) | Self-funding","currency":"DKK","country":"DK","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":4448,"netCashLocal":-86523,"cashPS":-19.4521,"tps":{"mega_bear":196.79,"bear":269.65,"base":378.61,"bull":523.17,"psychedelic_bull":703.44},"weightedTP":405.56,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.semaglutide","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","small_molecule.gpcr.glp1_oral","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.liraglutide","peptide.hormone_analog.insulin_diversified","peptide.hormone_analog.growth_hormone","biologic.recombinant_protein.coagulation.factor_viia","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.coagulation","biologic.recombinant_protein.coagulation.factor_viii_ix","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tfpi","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_amylin_combo","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_amylin_oral","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.semaglutide_oral","small_molecule.gpcr.cb1"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":138},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":69},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":24},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":127},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":64},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":54},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":29},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":7},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfpef","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":3,"rarePurityWtd":4,"optionality":20,"totalTAM":1045.865,"totalWTD":869.344875},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 15 2025","dateSort":"2025-08-15","asset":"ozempic_mash","indication":"sema_mash","title":"REPORTED (2025-08-15, approved): Wegovy (semaglutide 2.4mg) FDA accelerated approval for noncirrhotic MASH with moderate-to-advanced fibrosis (ESSENCE part 1)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"NOVO May'25 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000117184325005454/f6k_081525.htm","failTP":405.360559,"successTP":405.638394,"baseTP":405.556494,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":87,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Reported (readout Mar 2025 / NDA filed Dec 2025)","dateSort":"2025-12-19","asset":"cagrisema","indication":"cagri_obesity","title":"REPORTED: CagriSema REDEFINE-2 positive (15.7% wt loss at wk68, T2D) + US NDA filed Dec 2025","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"NOVO pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"REDEFINE-2 met its primary endpoint with superior weight loss of 15.7% at week 68 in adults with obesity/overweight + T2D. US NDA for chronic weight management submitted to FDA Dec 2025 on REDEFINE-1 + REDEFINE-2; FDA decision anticipated late 2026. Offsetting: REDEFINE-4 head-to-head vs tirzepatide (Feb 2026) MISSED non-inferiority on weight loss at 84 weeks -- a commercial/share negative, not a regulatory one.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeSource":"https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=916481","failTP":404.256118,"successTP":406.051731,"baseTP":405.556494,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Feb 24 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-24","asset":"amycretin","indication":"amy_obesity","title":"RESOLVED 2026-02-24: Amycretin Ph1b/2 obesity data reported (~22% wt loss at 36wk SC) and Ph3 AMAZE 1 started (NCT07339423)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"NOVO pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07339423","failTP":404.274768,"successTP":405.997588,"baseTP":405.556494,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"cagrisema","indication":"cagri_obesity","title":"CagriSema US FDA decision on chronic weight management NDA","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://www.pharmexec.com/view/novo-nordisk-submits-nda-fda-cagrisema","_confidence":"high","failTP":404.397662,"successTP":406.220767,"baseTP":405.556494,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":79,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2029","dateSort":"2029-06-26","asset":"amycretin","indication":"amy_obesity","title":"Amycretin AMAZE 1 Ph3 obesity primary completion (SC once-weekly; ct.gov est. Jun 2029)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07339423","_confidence":"medium","failTP":404.223808,"successTP":406.197001,"baseTP":405.556494,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":45785,"lenses":{"comparable":181.68,"eeRel":1.175,"peRel":2.4216},"readouts":[{"a":"cagrisema","ind":"cagri_obesity","ds":"2025-12-19","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"own","med":21.7913161,"lo":1.13456596,"hi":28.6703592,"pBeatBest":0.26155,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"amycretin","ind":"amy_obesity","ds":"2026-02-24","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.1764417,"lo":2.94777395,"hi":29.2138632,"pBeatBest":0.1247,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"amycretin","ind":"amy_obesity","ds":"2029-06-26","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":14.1623496,"lo":-1.02723176,"hi":28.2132497,"pBeatBest":0.0879,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"NRIX":{"name":"Nurix Therapeutics","subtitle":"ROCHE DEAL Jun'26: $700M up/$2.3B total, 50:50 US + teens ex-US royalty for bexobrutideg | Ph3 DAYBreak CLL-306 ENROLLING (1st pt Aug 4 '26); immuno tablet Ph1 '27 | Sanofi/Gilead/PFE","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":103.41,"netCashLocal":1143.5,"cashPS":11.0579,"tps":{"mega_bear":10.01,"bear":14.66,"base":20.79,"bull":26.65,"psychedelic_bull":31.8},"weightedTP":21.02,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_degrader.btk_protac","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_degrader"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":61},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":39}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":86},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":29},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":14}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":88},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":24},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":12}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":271,"totalTAM":10.257,"totalWTD":2.76211485},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-08","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"REPORTED: Roche global collaboration ANNOUNCED ($700M upfront + $1.6B milestones; 50/50 US + teens royalty ex-US)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":11.4947094,"successTP":12.6626324,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-16,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":-17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"Jun 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-14","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"REPORTED: Bexobrutideg EHA 2026 mature CLL data oral presentation (600mg RP2D superior to 200mg; AA-supporting)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":11.4947094,"successTP":12.6626324,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-34,"failMove":-38,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":-36,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36},{"date":"Jul 21 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-21","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-21: Roche collaboration CLOSED on HSR clearance -- $700M upfront received; development costs shared 40% Nurix / 60% Roche","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":98,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Deal close is a financing event, not a technical de-risking of bexobrutideg: the 95/98 success anchors were never PoS values, so assumptions are unchanged.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/21/3330940/0/en/Nurix-Therapeutics-Announces-HSR-Clearance-of-Global-Collaboration-with-Roche-to-Co-Develop-and-Co-Commercialize-Potential-Best-in-Class-BTK-Degrader-Bexobrutideg-Across-Malignant-.html","failTP":11.5617161,"successTP":26.9265159,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":29,"successMove":11,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"REPORTED: DAYBreak CLL-306 Phase 3 pivotal INITIATED -- first patient enrolled Aug 4 2026 (~620 pts, bexobrutideg 600mg QD vs pirtobrutinib, Roche-partnered)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":68,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NRIX/nurix-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-hwv01t9c4h2u.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.1892233,"successTP":23.6893024,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":11,"successMove":4,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"nx2127","indication":"nx2127_bcell","title":"NX-2127 Ph1 re-initiation update (post FDA hold lift May 26; new mfg process)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":20.7190216,"successTP":20.841618,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"Bexobrutideg tablet formulation IND target (immunology indications)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NRIX/nurix-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-hwv01t9c4h2u.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":15.1986738,"successTP":23.5261321,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":8,"successMove":2,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"Bexobrutideg DAYBreak CLL-201 Ph2 mature AA-supporting data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NRIX/nurix-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-hwv01t9c4h2u.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.3985038,"successTP":23.8148181,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":54,"successMove":13,"failMove":-41,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":42},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"DAYBreak CLL-201 Ph2 mature AA-enabling data + BLA submission preparation (binary)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_confidence":"high","failTP":11.8163417,"successTP":23.8148181,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":57,"successMove":13,"failMove":-44,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":42},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"Bexobrutideg tablet formulation immunology Ph1 first dose (CSU + neurology expansion)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.4947094,"successTP":12.6626324,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"bexobrutideg","indication":"bexo_cll","title":"DAYBreak CLL-306 Ph3 interim data (2L CLL pivotal; Roche milestone trigger)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.4947094,"successTP":12.6626324,"baseTP":21.017437,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-40,"failMove":-45,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":-41,"daysOut":null,"materiality":42}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":21.01},"readouts":[{"a":"bexobrutideg","ind":"bexo_cll","ds":"2026-06-14","area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":75.9499949,"lo":21.9110671,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.0989,"bestDrug":"venetoclax + rituximab","bestValue":92.3},{"a":"nx2127","ind":"nx2127_bcell","ds":"2026-10-15","area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":77.2002652,"lo":38.4004084,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.13485,"bestDrug":"venetoclax + rituximab","bestValue":92.3},{"a":"bexobrutideg","ind":"bexo_cll","ds":"2027-04-30","area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":77.5700218,"lo":40.2391725,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.10495,"bestDrug":"venetoclax + rituximab","bestValue":92.3},{"a":"bexobrutideg","ind":"bexo_cll","ds":"2027-04-30","area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":77.5700218,"lo":40.2391725,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.10495,"bestDrug":"venetoclax + rituximab","bestValue":92.3},{"a":"bexobrutideg","ind":"bexo_cll","ds":"2027-12-15","area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":73.1258824,"lo":17.8680897,"hi":98.5367704,"pBeatBest":0.0763,"bestDrug":"venetoclax + rituximab","bestValue":92.3}]},"NTLA":{"name":"Intellia Therapeutics","subtitle":"In vivo CRISPR platform · lonvo-z HAELO Ph3 HIT (87% attack reduction) · BLA ACCEPTED Sep'26, Priority Review, PDUFA Mar 10'27 · nex-z clinical holds LIFTED","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":140.13,"netCashLocal":628.4,"cashPS":4.4844,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.13,"bear":3,"base":4.17,"bull":6.78,"psychedelic_bull":9.07},"weightedTP":4.44,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.attr","cardio_metabolic.attr.pn"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9.invivo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":118},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":78},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":44},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":38},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":22}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":105},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":62},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":52},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":48},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":33}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":97},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":79},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":52},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":48},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.pn","purity":24}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":172,"totalTAM":19.1775,"totalWTD":7.059875},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"lonvoz","indication":"hae","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-08: Lonvo-z BLA submission COMPLETED and ACCEPTED by FDA with Priority Review -- PDUFA Mar 10 2027, no advisory committee planned","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_outcome":"success","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357599/0/en/intellia-therapeutics-announces-fda-acceptance-of-biologics-license-application-with-priority-review-for-lonvoguran-ziclumeran-lonvo-z-for-hereditary-angioedema-hae.html","failTP":3.90359532,"successTP":4.8060879,"baseTP":4.44193456,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"nexz_pn","indication":"attr_pn","title":"MAGNITUDE-2 Phase 3 enrollment completion (ATTRv-PN)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":68,"failTP":4.26398983,"successTP":4.55546883,"baseTP":4.44193456,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Mar 10 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-10","asset":"lonvoz","indication":"hae","title":"Lonvo-z (NTLA-2002) HAE BLA PDUFA -- Priority Review, action date Mar 10 2027 (no AdCom planned)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357599/0/en/intellia-therapeutics-announces-fda-acceptance-of-biologics-license-application-with-priority-review-for-lonvoguran-ziclumeran-lonvo-z-for-hereditary-angioedema-hae.html","success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":40,"failTP":3.76157367,"successTP":4.84902496,"baseTP":4.44193456,"swingPct":24,"successMove":9,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5.83}},"NUVB":{"name":"Nuvation Bio Inc.","subtitle":"IBTROZI (taletrectinib) ROS1+ NSCLC: Q2'26 US net rev $23.2M (+25% q/q, ~160 new starts) | Eisai EU/MENA license | China NRDL Jan'26 | Safusidenib Japan rights Apr'26 | $287.5M conv notes","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":351.12,"netCashLocal":410,"cashPS":1.1677,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.28,"bear":2.74,"base":5.36,"bull":7.94,"psychedelic_bull":10.92},"weightedTP":5.68,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","oncology.brain","_platform.oncology_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.ros1","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.idh1","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.combination.drug_drug_conjugate","small_molecule.combination"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":116},{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":169},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":14},{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":115},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":43},{"area":"_platform.oncology_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":58,"rarePurityWtd":85,"optionality":128,"totalTAM":11.5813,"totalWTD":5.0750304},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ibtrozi","indication":"ibt_ros1","title":"IBTROZI EU/UK regulatory progress -- UK MHRA validated the MAA Jun 2026 (Eisai-partnered ex-US/China/Japan); EU decision path + US ramp","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"NUVB Q1'26 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.68469941,"successTP":5.68469941,"baseTP":5.68469941,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jan 4 2027","dateSort":"2027-01-04","asset":"ibtrozi","indication":"ibt_ros1","title":"IBTROZI sNDA PDUFA -- label update with longer-term duration of response in advanced ROS1+ NSCLC (FDA accepted sNDA)","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.nuvationbio.com/news/news-details/2026/Nuvation-Bio-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-Supplemental-New-Drug-Application-for-IBTROZI-taletrectinib-with-Updated-Duration-of-Response-in-Advanced-ROS1-Positive-Non-Small-Cell-Lung-Cancer/default.aspx","failTP":5.68469941,"successTP":5.68469941,"baseTP":5.68469941,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"safusidenib","indication":"saf_astro","title":"Safusidenib IDH1 astrocytoma Ph3 enrollment progress","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"NUVB pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.58185736,"successTP":6.91375314,"baseTP":5.68469941,"swingPct":77,"successMove":22,"failMove":-55,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":55}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":4.89}},"NUVL":{"name":"Nuvalent, Inc. (private; wholly-owned by GSK since Jul 2026)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- acquired by GSK 15-Jul-2026 at $124.00/sh (~$10.6B), delisted · Zidesamtinib APPROVED 22-Jul-2026 as JIDEYTRO · Neladalkib PDUFA 27-Nov-2026 · both modelled on GSK","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","oncology.lung.nsclc.her2"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.ros1","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.alk","small_molecule.kinase.her2"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":15}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":80},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.her2","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":36,"totalTAM":4.9278,"totalWTD":3.61814},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":0},"NVAX":{"name":"Novavax, Inc.","subtitle":"COVID protein subunit Nuvaxovid | Sanofi May 2024 deal: $500M up + $700M milestones + 50/50 ex-LMICs | FY25 $1,123M (most legacy APA settlements; +$225M Sanofi milestones)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":164.6,"netCashLocal":432.5,"cashPS":2.6276,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.21,"bear":4.37,"base":6.34,"bull":8.76,"psychedelic_bull":11.91},"weightedTP":6.52,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza"],"modalities":["vaccine.protein_subunit.covid_recombinant","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","vaccine.protein_subunit.flu"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":106},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":94}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":124},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":76}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":188},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":12}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":17,"totalTAM":22.738,"totalWTD":19.396228},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"nuvaxovid","indication":"covid_nvax","title":"FY26 adjusted total revenue framework $235-275M (raised Aug 6 2026 from $230-270M; royalty/milestone model post-Sanofi)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"NVAX FY26 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.51538423,"successTP":6.51538423,"baseTP":6.51538423,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-27","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"cic","indication":"flu_combo","title":"CORRECTED: Sanofi-run COVID-Influenza Combination Ph3 INITIATION (not a readout) -- Sanofi confirmed at the NVAX Q2'26 print that it is in ADVANCED DISCUSSIONS WITH REGULATORS on trial timing; first dosing in the US or EU triggers a $125M milestone to Novavax","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"NVAX pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.22971832,"successTP":6.73381267,"baseTP":6.51538423,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cic","indication":"flu_combo","title":"Nuvaxovid manufacturing technology transfer to Sanofi COMPLETION (guided mid-2027) -- triggers a further $75M milestone to Novavax","type":"milestone","severity":"medium","failTP":6.01406185,"successTP":6.25208401,"baseTP":6.51538423,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.22}},"NVCT":{"name":"Nuvectis Pharma, Inc.","subtitle":"NXP100 (Ciprocopan) oral Factor B inhibitor APPROVED IN CHINA Jul'26 for PNH (ex-China licensed from Haisco) + NXP200 BRAFi + NXP900 YES1/SRC Ph1b | NXP800 ovarian DISCONTINUED | cash ~$130M to 1H'29","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":32.44,"netCashLocal":129.7,"cashPS":3.9982,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.29,"bear":4.46,"base":8.87,"bull":14.64,"psychedelic_bull":22.02},"weightedTP":8.27,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology","hematology.hemolytic","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","oncology.tissue_agnostic.braf_v600e","oncology.tissue_agnostic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transcription_factor.hsf1","small_molecule","small_molecule.transcription_factor","small_molecule.kinase.src_family_yes1","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.complement_factor_b","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.kinase.braf_paradox_breaker"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":41},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":31},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":24},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.braf_v600e","purity":14},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":103},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":32},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":15},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.braf_v600e","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":135},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":67},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":13},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.braf_v600e","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":625,"totalTAM":55.16855,"totalWTD":7.60903999},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2025","dateSort":"2025-07-31","asset":"nxp800","indication":"nxp800_ovarian","title":"REPORTED: NXP800 Ph1b ARID1a-mut ovarian FINAL data Jul 31 2025 -- 2 PR + 3 SD of 13 evaluable; ovarian development DISCONTINUED (no further readout)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"high","failTP":8.26548398,"successTP":8.47987518,"baseTP":8.26548398,"swingPct":2,"successMove":2,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 2025","dateSort":"2025-07-31","asset":"nxp800","indication":"nxp800_endo","title":"RESOLVED 2025-07-31: NXP800 endometrial cohort expansion CANCELLED -- NXP800 development halted after the ovarian Ph1b readout","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.26548398,"successTP":9.19054904,"baseTP":8.26548398,"swingPct":8,"successMove":8,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-19","asset":"nxp200","indication":"nxp200_braf","title":"NXP200 China Ph1b data at ESMO 2026 (BRAF-altered solid tumors)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":4,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":16,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/04/3338215/0/en/nuvectis-pharma-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-highlights.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.68081125,"successTP":8.79592517,"baseTP":8.26548398,"swingPct":9,"successMove":4,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":11,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"nxp900","indication":"nxp900_egfr","title":"NXP900 Ph1b NSCLC EGFR-resistant osimertinib combo update (KEY) -- SLIPPED from summer 2026 to \"by the end of this year\" (Q2 PR Aug 4 2026)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"high","failTP":6.76241453,"successTP":9.78469706,"baseTP":8.26548398,"swingPct":25,"successMove":13,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":25,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"4Q 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"nxp100","indication":"nxp100_pnh","title":"NXP100 US pre-IND meeting + IND submission for PNH (bridging strategy off China approval package)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":84,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/04/3338215/0/en/nuvectis-pharma-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-highlights.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.73971988,"successTP":12.5474952,"baseTP":8.26548398,"swingPct":48,"successMove":26,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":37,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"4Q 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"nxp200","indication":"nxp200_braf","title":"NXP200 US IND submission","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":12,"success_apr":57,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/04/3338215/0/en/nuvectis-pharma-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-highlights.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.78125622,"successTP":8.67524676,"baseTP":8.26548398,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":6,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.31},"readouts":[{"a":"nxp900","ind":"nxp900_egfr","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":19.2578846,"lo":4.03751451,"hi":34.034873,"pBeatBest":0.20485,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5},{"a":"nxp800","ind":"nxp800_ovarian","ds":"2025-07-31","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.5333325,"lo":0,"hi":48.6074727,"pBeatBest":0.2667,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3}]},"NVS":{"name":"Novartis AG (Innovative Medicines)","subtitle":"IM-only model | $54.5B 2025 (+8% USD; +11% cc) | Pluvicto/Kisqali/Kesimpta/Scemblix/Fabhalta growth | Entresto US LOE Jul 2025 | Top-20 brands $44.5B + Other $10B","currency":"USD","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2026,"netCashLocal":-41396,"cashPS":-20.4324,"tps":{"mega_bear":80.39,"bear":110.32,"base":154,"bull":211.44,"psychedelic_bull":296.46},"weightedTP":165.25,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology.demyelinating","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_taxane","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","oncology.tissue_agnostic.braf_v600e","oncology.tissue_agnostic","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","oncology.leukemia.cml","oncology.leukemia","immunology.transplant.cgvhd","immunology.transplant","_established_products.nvs_heritage","_established_products","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology.hemolytic","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","nephrology.glomerular.c3g","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","hematology.hemoglobinopathy","_established_products.diversified_legacy","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cle","cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il17","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.combination.arni","small_molecule","small_molecule.combination","small_molecule.kinase.cdk46","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd20","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.lutetium_psma","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter","small_molecule.kinase.jak1_2","small_molecule.kinase.braf_mek","small_molecule.cytokine_receptor.tpo_eltrombopag","small_molecule.cytokine_receptor","small_molecule.kinase.stamp_bcr_abl","small_molecule.enzyme.calcineurin_cni","small_molecule.enzyme","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.kinase.btk_covalent","small_molecule.epigenetic.bet_inhibitor","small_molecule.epigenetic","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_smn1","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.pcsk9","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin.sst2","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin","small_molecule.kinase.bcr_abl","small_molecule.kinase.vegfr_multikinase","small_molecule.enzyme.complement_factor_b","small_molecule.gpcr.s1p_modulator","small_molecule.gpcr","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","small_molecule.kinase.btk_reversible","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.lpa","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":39},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":32},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":16},{"area":"_established_products.nvs_heritage","purity":12},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cle","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.braf_v600e","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_taxane","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.c3g","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":40},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":17},{"area":"_established_products.nvs_heritage","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cle","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.braf_v600e","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_taxane","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.c3g","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.nvs_heritage","purity":118},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.lpa","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.gca_pmr","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_taxane","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.braf_v600e","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cml","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.c3g","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.cle","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":9,"rarePurityWtd":9,"optionality":4,"totalTAM":486.18465,"totalWTD":466.530485},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2025","dateSort":"2025-09-30","asset":"remibrutinib","indication":"remi_csu","title":"REPORTED: Remibrutinib FDA APPROVED Sep 30 2025 as RHAPSIDO for chronic spontaneous urticaria - first targeted oral CSU therapy (REMIX-1/2 Ph3); pos/apr -> 100","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"NVS pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":163.592893,"successTP":165.66454,"baseTP":165.248389,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-06","asset":"pluvicto_pretax","indication":"pluv_pretax","title":"REPORTED: Pluvicto earlier-line expansion APPROVED - FDA approval Aug 6 2026 for PSMA+ metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer in combination with an ARPI (PSMAddition), on top of the pre-taxane mCRPC expansion; pos/apr -> 100","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"NVS pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":164.132326,"successTP":165.665843,"baseTP":165.248389,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-04","asset":"pelacarsen","indication":"pela_lpa","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-04 (MISS): Lp(a)HORIZON Ph3 topline -- pelacarsen did not meet the primary endpoint (CV death / non-fatal MI / non-fatal stroke / urgent coronary revasc) vs placebo in 8,323 ASCVD pts with elevated Lp(a); Lp(a) was lowered. Full data at an upcoming congress","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"_source":"Novartis media release + Form 6-K Sep 4 2026","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001114448/000117184326005896/f6k_090426.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":164.71695,"successTP":164.929277,"baseTP":165.248389,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":64345,"lenses":{"comparable":96.91,"eeRel":0.9755,"peRel":0.8322}},"NWRN":{"name":"Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A.","subtitle":"Italian CNS specialty (SIX-listed) | Xadago Parkinson royalty (Zambon partner; ~EUR 7M/yr) | Evenamide Ph3 treatment-resistant schizophrenia (Jan'25 EA Pharma/Eisai + Myung In Pharm EUR 42M deals)","currency":"CHF","country":"IT","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":20,"netCashLocal":27,"cashPS":1.35,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.21,"bear":8.95,"base":14.01,"bull":21.71,"psychedelic_bull":33.56},"weightedTP":15.07,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.mao_b","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.gpcr.mglur_modulator","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":122},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":78},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":61},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":39}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":122},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":78},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":61},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":39}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":200},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":20.0225,"totalWTD":20.0225},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-31","asset":"evenamide","indication":"evenamide_trs","title":"REPORTED: Newron FY25 financials reported (cash EUR 28.9M); Evenamide Ph3 ENIGMA-TRS 1/ENIGMA-TRS 2 ongoing (no readout this disclosure window; next data window Q3-Q4 2026)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Newron IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":11.036552,"successTP":19.4635672,"baseTP":15.0727853,"swingPct":28,"successMove":15,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":46},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"evenamide","indication":"evenamide_trs","title":"Evenamide Phase 3 TRS topline (first-in-class glutamate modulator add-on)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Newron pipeline guidance","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.85791586,"successTP":19.4635672,"baseTP":15.0727853,"swingPct":123,"successMove":29,"failMove":-94,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":29,"daysOut":null,"materiality":93}],"salesM2025":8,"lenses":{"comparable":13.84},"readouts":[{"a":"evenamide","ind":"evenamide_trs","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":8.71641058,"lo":1.29168202,"hi":15.1624259,"pBeatBest":0.1624,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12}]},"NXTC":{"name":"Avere Therapeutics, Inc. (NXTC->AVRX, merger closes H2'26)","subtitle":"Post-merger AVRX (closes H2'26): once-weekly ORAL IL-23R antagonist AVR-001 (Hansoh ex-China; $320M PIPE); Ph2b psoriasis early'27, readout 1H'28; legacy ADCs -> CVR to ~1.21% legacy holders","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":449.669,"netCashLocal":800,"cashPS":1.7791,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.65,"bear":2.2,"base":4.09,"bull":6.35,"psychedelic_bull":9.71},"weightedTP":4.31,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi"],"modalities":["peptide.receptor_blocker.il23r_oral","peptide","peptide.receptor_blocker"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":70},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":65},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":65},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":65},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":35}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":78},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":78},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":78},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":43},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":22}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":80},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":80},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":80},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":39},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":20}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":361,"totalTAM":47.5,"totalWTD":10.3059},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 10 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"avr001","indication":"avr001_pso","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-10: Avere announces a $500M PRIVATE PLACEMENT (common stock + pre-funded warrants; Venrock, General Atlantic, Blackstone Multi-Asset, RTW, Eventide, BB Biotech, Wellington, Janus Henderson) ON TOP of the previously announced $320M concurrent private investment -- combined proceeds fund the operating plan into 2029","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.nextcure.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avere-therapeutics-announces-500-million-private-placement","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Financing confirmed by company PR. APPLIED 2026-08-26: cash 300 -> 800 and sharesOut 433 -> 449.669 together, using the company's disclosed 449,668,672 as-converted share count at closing, which already includes this placement and the $320M PIPE. Moving both sides at once is what makes this safe -- the placement price per share is still undisclosed.","failTP":1.97470383,"successTP":2.57890797,"baseTP":4.3099497,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-16,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"avr001","indication":"avr001_pso","title":"Reverse merger close + $320M PIPE fund; NextCure -> Avere Therapeutics (AVRX); $251M convertibles exchanged into common","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"NextCure/Avere PR + GlobeNewswire 2026-07-14","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.97470383,"successTP":2.57890797,"baseTP":4.3099497,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-12,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"2026-2028","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"avr001","indication":"avr001_pso","title":"CVR: monetization of legacy ADCs SIM0505/LNCB74/NC410 (90% net proceeds to legacy holders, 2yr window)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"GlobeNewswire 2026-07-14; Quiver","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.97470383,"successTP":2.57890797,"baseTP":4.3099497,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-16,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"avr001","indication":"avr001_pso","title":"AVR-001 Phase 2b psoriasis initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"Avere/Kalkine","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.97470383,"successTP":2.57890797,"baseTP":4.3099497,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-12,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"avr001","indication":"avr001_uc","title":"AVR-001 Phase 2b ulcerative colitis initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"Avere/BioPharma Dive","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.48687858,"successTP":3.98407495,"baseTP":4.3099497,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"avr001","indication":"avr001_pso","title":"AVR-001 Phase 2b psoriasis topline readout (key value inflection; oral IL-23R efficacy vs injectables)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":68,"_source":"Avere/BioPharma Dive","_confidence":"high","failTP":2.18503622,"successTP":6.13160838,"baseTP":4.3099497,"swingPct":91,"successMove":42,"failMove":-49,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":47}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5.17}},"OCGN":{"name":"Ocugen","subtitle":"Modifier gene therapy retina: OCU400 RP Ph3 topline 2Q'27; OCU410ST Stargardt mid-'27; OCU410 GA Ph3 INITIATED 3Q'26 (n~237, topline 2H'28); three BLAs by 2028; $130M converts","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":339,"netCashLocal":-29.6,"cashPS":-0.0873,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0,"bull":0.78,"psychedelic_bull":2.2},"weightedTP":0.25,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.retinitis_pigmentosa","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","ophthalmology.retina.ga"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav5_nr2e3","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav5_rora"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":82},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.retinitis_pigmentosa","purity":59},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":58}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.retinitis_pigmentosa","purity":75},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":67},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":58}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":100},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.retinitis_pigmentosa","purity":97},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","purity":58},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":45}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":222,"totalTAM":27.057,"totalWTD":8.4154263},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ocu400","indication":"ocu400_rp","title":"OCU400 liMeliGhT Ph3 pan-RP topline -- re-guided to 2Q 2027 (was Q1'27); BLA to follow","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1372299/000110465926105968/tm2624985d1_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.000672622426,"successTP":0.751210397,"baseTP":0.250124714,"swingPct":300,"successMove":200,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":74,"daysOut":null,"materiality":84},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ocu410st","indication":"ocu410st_stargardt","title":"OCU410ST Ph2/3 GARDian Stargardt topline (BLA to follow mid-2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001372299/000110465926055411/tm2613584d1_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.0533795603,"successTP":0.483954596,"baseTP":0.250124714,"swingPct":172,"successMove":93,"failMove":-79,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":41},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"ocu410","indication":"ocu410_ga","title":"OCU410 Ph3 geographic atrophy topline (~237 patients; Ph3 INITIATED 3Q 2026) -- company guidance 2H 2028","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1372299/000110465926105968/tm2624985d1_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.0103644279,"successTP":0.814640032,"baseTP":0.250124714,"swingPct":322,"successMove":226,"failMove":-96,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":39,"daysOut":null,"materiality":69}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.43},"readouts":[{"a":"ocu410","ind":"ocu410_ga","ds":"2028-12-31","area":"ophthalmology.retina.ga","endpoint":"ga_growth_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":3.79861925,"lo":-7.30075391,"hi":28.448645,"pBeatBest":0.07555,"bestDrug":"pegcetacoplan monthly","bestValue":22}]},"OCS":{"name":"Oculis Holding","subtitle":"DIAMOND DME FAILED May'26 (no FDA filing) -> pivot: Privosegtor ON/NAION (BTD+SPA, FULL rights bought from Accure Aug'26, PIONEER-1 FPT Aug 24'26) + Licaminlimab DED PREDICT-1 topline ~YE'26","currency":"USD","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":58,"netCashLocal":282.3,"cashPS":4.8672,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":2.08,"bull":12.87,"psychedelic_bull":30.02},"weightedTP":5.01,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.optic_neuritis","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.naion","ophthalmology.retina.dme","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","ophthalmology.surface"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.calcium_modulator","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","formulation_modifier.ocular.dex_cyclodextrin","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.ocular","biologic.antibody.fragment.anti_tnf_topical","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fragment"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":120},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":71},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":60},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":35},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.optic_neuritis","purity":7},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.naion","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":140},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":70},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.optic_neuritis","purity":52},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":30},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.naion","purity":8},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.optic_neuritis","purity":158},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":91},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.naion","purity":23},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":19},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":9},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":5,"rarePurityWtd":30,"optionality":1546,"totalTAM":15.6515,"totalWTD":0.9509475},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"licam","indication":"ded","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-24: post-DIAMOND pivot EXECUTED -- full privosegtor rights acquired from Accure (Aug 2026), PIONEER-1 first patient treated Aug 24 2026, PREDICT-1 >45% enrolled","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/29/3303783/0/en/Oculis-Announces-Topline-Results-from-DIAMOND-Phase-3-Trials-with-OCS-01-in-Diabetic-Macular-Edema.html","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/24/3349489/0/en/first-patient-treated-in-pioneer-1-registrational-trial-of-privosegtor-for-optic-neuritis.html","failTP":4.41432721,"successTP":7.5790385,"baseTP":5.01110937,"swingPct":19,"successMove":15,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"privo_on","indication":"on","title":"PIONEER-2 first-line ON registrational trial start","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":70,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.oculis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/oculis-accelerates-privosegtor-registrational-trials-acute-optic","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"PIONEER-2 planned to follow in first half of 2026 as second registrational trial for optic neuritis","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. FDA SPA agreement reached May 2026 and BTD granted Jan 2026; PIONEER-1 initiated Q4 2025 but no confirmed PIONEER-2 initiation announced. H1 2026 window passed; rolled to Q3 2026 | 2026-09-03: Q2 2026 report guides PIONEER-2 AND PIONEER-3 initiations to H2 2026; rolled to 2026-12-31. PIONEER-1 first patient treated Aug 24 2026 with enrollment completion guided 2027.","failTP":1.26759419,"successTP":9.22723998,"baseTP":5.01110937,"swingPct":48,"successMove":25,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"privo_naion","indication":"naion","title":"PIONEER-3 NAION registrational trial start","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":50,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.oculis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/oculis-accelerates-privosegtor-registrational-trials-acute-optic","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"PIONEER-3 in NAION expected to begin in mid-2026","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Company guidance remained 'expected to begin mid-2026' with no confirmed initiation announcement; rolled ~1 quarter to H2 2026 | 2026-09-03: Q2 2026 report guides PIONEER-3 initiation to H2 2026; rolled to 2026-12-31.","failTP":3.90267172,"successTP":5.92756914,"baseTP":5.01110937,"swingPct":12,"successMove":5,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"~YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"licam","indication":"ded","title":"PREDICT-1 Phase 2/3 topline data (Licaminlimab precision medicine DED)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/06/3340699/0/en/Oculis-Reports-Q2-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Company-Update.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Q2 2026 report: PREDICT-1 site activations complete, >45% of patients enrolled, topline expected around year-end 2026","failTP":3.97469177,"successTP":5.94955136,"baseTP":5.01110937,"swingPct":40,"successMove":19,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"privo_on","indication":"on","title":"Privosegtor IND submission in ACUTE MS RELAPSES (label-expansion beyond optic neuritis) -- guided Q4 2026","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":70,"_source":"Oculis Q2 2026 report (2026-08-06)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/06/3340699/0/en/Oculis-Reports-Q2-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Company-Update.html","_addedAt":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Q2 2026 report guides an IND submission for privosegtor in acute MS relapses in Q4 2026; not modelled as a separate indication, so fail_*=success_*=current base","failTP":1.45123882,"successTP":9.05563174,"baseTP":5.01110937,"swingPct":30,"successMove":16,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":46,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["share_severe"],"maxShare":{"pct":95,"ceilPct":50,"position":"unpositioned","asset":"privo_on","ind":"on","area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.optic_neuritis","somB":0.5,"tamB":0.5}},"lenses":{"comparable":0.59}},"OCUL":{"name":"Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.","subtitle":"Sustained-release ocular implant | AXPAXLI SOL-1 Ph3 wAMD POSITIVE Feb'26 (W52 65.9% +21.1% vs aflibercept p<0.0001); NDA Q4'26 | SOL-R Q1'27 | HELIOS-3 NPDR | PAXTRAVA Ph2 done, next steps TBD","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":155,"netCashLocal":598.6,"cashPS":3.8619,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.42,"bear":3.87,"base":5.42,"bull":8.15,"psychedelic_bull":11.91},"weightedTP":5.6,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.uveitis","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dr","ophthalmology.glaucoma.open_angle","ophthalmology.glaucoma"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.ocular.intracanalicular_implant","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.ocular","formulation_modifier.ocular.intravitreal_implant","formulation_modifier.ocular.intracameral_implant"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":78},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":72},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":67},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma.open_angle","purity":39},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma","purity":20},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":16},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":105},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":78},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":52},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":28},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma.open_angle","purity":15},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":14},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":87},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":65},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":60},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":43},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":30},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma.open_angle","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.glaucoma","purity":5}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":74,"totalTAM":28.384,"totalWTD":16.3505},"catalysts":[{"date":"Feb 17 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-02-17","asset":"axpaxli","indication":"axpaxli_wamd","title":"REPORTED (2026-02-17, success): AXPAXLI SOL-1 Phase 3 -- superiority vs aflibercept (W36 74.1% +17.5% p=0.0006; W52 65.9% +21.1% p<0.0001); first-ever wAMD superiority; NDA planned (SOL-R confirmatory pending) -> wamd pos 92->94","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":92,"fail_apr":95,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"Ocular Therapeutix PR Feb 17 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-02-17 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":5.06117455,"successTP":6.21679247,"baseTP":5.60401428,"swingPct":21,"successMove":11,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"axpaxli","indication":"axpaxli_wamd","title":"AXPAXLI NDA submission for wAMD (post-FDA alignment on SOL-1 data)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":92,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"OCUL FY25 PR + SOL-1 Feb 17 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.97298891,"successTP":6.21679247,"baseTP":5.60401428,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-28","asset":"axpaxli","indication":"axpaxli_wamd","title":"AXPAXLI SOL-R Phase 3 non-inferiority topline (wAMD; n=631 randomized Dec'25) - accelerated timing","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":93,"_source":"OCUL FY25 PR Feb 5 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.11585785,"successTP":6.17236578,"baseTP":5.60401428,"swingPct":37,"successMove":10,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"TBD","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"paxtrava","indication":"paxtrava_glaucoma","title":"PAXTRAVA (OTX-TIC) glaucoma NEXT-STEPS decision -- Ph2 NCT05335122 completed Jan 2024, no Ph3 registered; company \"evaluating next steps\" as of Q2 2026","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"_source":"clinicaltrials.gov NCT05335122 / NCT04360174; Ocular Therapeutix Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-03","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/03/3337365/0/en/ocular-therapeutix-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-highlights.html","_note":"CORRECTED 2026-09-03. The config carried a \"PAXTRAVA Phase 3 glaucoma topline\" catalyst due 2026-09-30. No Phase 3 exists: clinicaltrials.gov lists only Ph1 NCT04360174 (n=19, completed 2021) and Ph2 NCT05335122 (n=83, primary completion Jan 24 2024, COMPLETED), plus an observational endothelial-contact study. Ocular Therapeutix stated in its Q2 2026 report that it is evaluating next steps for OTX-TIC. Reclassified as a next-steps/decision milestone and pushed to mid-2027; asset status corrected phase3 -> phase2. | 2026-09-03 (second pass, user-authorised): assumptions taken from the bounded first-pass values to the recommended FULL parked-asset value, base pos 40 / apr 55. The old fail/success pair (30/45 and 65/78) was written for a Phase 3 that was about to read out; it has been restated to bracket a go/no-go decision instead -- fail 12/22 if Ocular walks away, success 55/70 if it funds a registrational glaucoma programme.","failTP":5.41031277,"successTP":5.75523541,"baseTP":5.60401428,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":60,"lenses":{"comparable":4.06},"readouts":[{"a":"axpaxli","ind":"axpaxli_wamd","ds":"2026-02-17","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":7.58050657,"lo":-2.28019261,"hi":12.4705554,"pBeatBest":0.06785,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3},{"a":"axpaxli","ind":"axpaxli_wamd","ds":"2027-02-28","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":7.54236552,"lo":-2.31020624,"hi":12.4388575,"pBeatBest":0.06845,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3}]},"ODTX":{"name":"Odyssey Therapeutics","subtitle":"Autoimmune/inflammatory platform: OD-001 oral RIPK2 -- Ph2a UC PoC POSITIVE Jun'26 (27% remission / 61% response, n=49); Ph2b + vedolizumab combo start 2H'26 | OD-002, OD-003 | $433M to 2H'28","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":47.89,"netCashLocal":433.1,"cashPS":9.0436,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.03,"bear":10.47,"base":16.09,"bull":24.15,"psychedelic_bull":29.43},"weightedTP":15.68,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.ripk2","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.transporter.slc15a4","small_molecule.transporter","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.tnfr2_agonist","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":120},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":80},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":60},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":40}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":147},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":74},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":53},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":26}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":193},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":3}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":259,"totalTAM":41.302,"totalWTD":11.491995},"catalysts":[{"date":"June 17, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-17","asset":"od001","indication":"od001_uc","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-17 (HIT): OD-001 Ph2a UC monotherapy PoC POSITIVE -- 27% clinical remission, 61% clinical response at Wk12 (n=49 completers), well tolerated at both doses, active in advanced-therapy naive and experienced patients","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":75,"_source":"Odyssey PR 2026-06-17","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/17/3313811/0/en/Odyssey-Therapeutics-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Corporate-Update.html","failTP":8.07780382,"successTP":20.4186704,"baseTP":15.6816431,"swingPct":78,"successMove":30,"failMove":-48,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":54},{"date":"October 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"od001","indication":"od001_uc","title":"OD-001 updated Ph2a safety/efficacy/exploratory data -- ORAL presentation at UEG Week 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"Odyssey Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-04","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Accepted for oral presentation; company guided 'additional, supportive data from this trial in October'.","failTP":7.00450684,"successTP":7.3596091,"baseTP":15.6816431,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-53,"failMove":-55,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":-54,"daysOut":null,"materiality":54},{"date":"2H 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"od001","indication":"od001_uc","title":"OD-001 Ph2b monotherapy + Ph2a vedolizumab-combination trials INITIATE (topline induction data guided 2H 2027)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"Odyssey Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-04","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.00450684,"successTP":7.3596091,"baseTP":15.6816431,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-16,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":51,"expectedReturn":-16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":19.96},"readouts":[{"a":"od001","ind":"od001_uc","ds":"2026-06-17","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":11.4837322,"lo":-0.484349956,"hi":21.9880152,"pBeatBest":0.3441,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7},{"a":"od001","ind":"od001_uc","ds":"2026-10-31","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":11.3735245,"lo":-0.651742359,"hi":21.9559525,"pBeatBest":0.3358,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7}]},"OKUR":{"name":"OnKure Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"OKI-219 PI3Kalpha H1047R-selective HR+ MBC PIKture-01 Ph1b (deprioritized data wrap-up only); OKI-345 pan-mutant lead 2H 26 IND 1H 27 | Cash $176M Jun 30 26 (runway into 2029)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":49.93,"netCashLocal":176.4,"cashPS":3.5329,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.48,"bear":2.66,"base":3.12,"bull":4.15,"psychedelic_bull":5.83},"weightedTP":3.22,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_alpha_h1047r","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_alpha_pan_mutant"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":100}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1233,"totalTAM":8.746,"totalWTD":0.65595},"catalysts":[{"date":"End 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"oki219","indication":"oki219_breast","title":"OKI-219 PIKture-01 final readout (triplet expansion)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.12102975,"successTP":3.15884866,"baseTP":3.21837249,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"1H 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-30","asset":"oki345","indication":"oki345_breast","title":"OKI-345 pan-mutant IND filing (LEAD program)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.62611182,"successTP":2.68634886,"baseTP":3.21837249,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.21}},"OLMA":{"name":"Olema Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Palazestrant (OP-1250) oral CERAN/SERD ER+/HER2- mBC: OPERA-01 Ph3 enrolment COMPLETE, topline Q1'27; OPERA-02 Ph3 1L+ribociclib enrolling; OP-3136 KAT6 Ph1 (Bayer mCRPC combo Q4'26)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":104.45,"netCashLocal":461.1,"cashPS":4.4146,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.12,"bear":11,"base":22.61,"bull":37.82,"psychedelic_bull":51.38},"weightedTP":23.13,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.serd_ceran","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.epigenetic.kat6","small_molecule.epigenetic"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":48}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":43}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":48}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":168,"totalTAM":32.271,"totalWTD":12.051061},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-30","asset":"op3136","indication":"op3136_mbc","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-30 (ASCO): OP-3136 KAT6 Ph1 initial data POSITIVE -- well-tolerated, no DLTs, early anti-tumor activity across solid tumors incl. ER+/HER2- breast","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Initial Ph1 data presented at ASCO 2026 (poster, May 30): clean safety, no DLTs, evidence of anti-tumor activity. OP-3136 is the second asset; OPERA-01 (palazestrant Ph3) remains the dominant near-term binary.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"https://ir.olema.com/news-releases/news-release-details/olema-oncology-announces-encouraging-initial-clinical-data-phase","_confidence":"high","failTP":22.4038952,"successTP":24.1192619,"baseTP":23.1276071,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":24,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-15","asset":"palazestrant","indication":"pala_mbc_2l","title":"Palazestrant OPERA-01 Ph3 2L/3L ER+/HER2- mBC topline (enrollment complete; DELAYED from Fall'26 to Q1'27 per Aug 10 2026 Q2 update)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/10/3342186/0/en/olema-oncology-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-and-operating-results.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.6229179,"successTP":30.67712,"baseTP":23.1276071,"swingPct":78,"successMove":33,"failMove":-45,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":38}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":23.39}},"OMER":{"name":"Omeros Corporation","subtitle":"Complement pathway specialist -- YARTEMLEA (narsoplimab) APPROVED Dec 24 2025 (first lectin-pathway inhibitor, OMER's first FDA nod in 31yr) + Omidria royalty + Zaltenibart Novo Oct 2025 deal","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":78.6,"netCashLocal":-86.1,"cashPS":-1.0954,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.28,"bear":5.19,"base":12.43,"bull":21.08,"psychedelic_bull":34.8},"weightedTP":13.27,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.lens.cataract_surgery","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.lens","hematology.tma.transplant_tma","hematology","hematology.tma","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology.hemolytic"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.ocular.intracameral_phenylephrine_ketorolac","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.ocular","biologic.antibody.mab.masp2","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.masp3"],"focus":[{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":110},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":70},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":55},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":35},{"area":"hematology.tma.transplant_tma","purity":14},{"area":"hematology.tma","purity":7},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens.cataract_surgery","purity":6},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":120},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":60},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":42},{"area":"hematology.tma.transplant_tma","purity":23},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":21},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens.cataract_surgery","purity":15},{"area":"hematology.tma","purity":12},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"hematology.tma.transplant_tma","purity":96},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":81},{"area":"hematology.tma","purity":48},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":41},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens.cataract_surgery","purity":17},{"area":"ophthalmology.lens","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":97,"rarePurityWtd":93,"optionality":142,"totalTAM":19.44,"totalWTD":8.0416054},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-10-15","dateSort":"2025-10-15","asset":"zaltenibart_royalty","indication":"zaltenibart_pnh","title":"REPORTED: Novo Nordisk acquired global zaltenibart rights -- $240M upfront + $100M near-term + back-end milestones + tiered royalties (deal closed Oct 2025)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"OMER PR Oct 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-10-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":12.013695,"successTP":12.8051453,"baseTP":13.2731164,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Dec 26 2025","dateSort":"2025-12-26","asset":"narsoplimab","indication":"ta_tma","title":"REPORTED: YARTEMLEA (narsoplimab-wuug) FDA APPROVED Dec 24, 2025 -- first-ever lectin pathway inhibitor for TA-TMA (adults + pediatric >=2y); Omeros first FDA approval in 31-year history","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Omeros PR Dec 24 2025 + FiercePharma + HCPLive","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-24 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":7.19817478,"successTP":17.1876427,"baseTP":13.2731164,"swingPct":75,"successMove":29,"failMove":-46,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":39},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-26","asset":"narsoplimab","indication":"ta_tma","title":"RESOLVED 2026-06-26 (MISS): EMA CHMP adopted a NEGATIVE opinion on the narsoplimab TA-TMA MAA; Omeros is requesting re-examination and review by an Ad Hoc Expert Group (AHEG). US YARTEMLEA approval unaffected.","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"OMER Jun 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.64822304,"successTP":16.9543809,"baseTP":13.2731164,"swingPct":57,"successMove":25,"failMove":-31,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"narsoplimab","indication":"ta_tma","title":"EMA re-examination outcome on narsoplimab TA-TMA (post-AHEG) - the EU leg of the franchise rides on this","type":"ema_approval","fail_pos":78,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":94,"failTP":10.2827658,"successTP":16.61715,"baseTP":13.2731164,"swingPct":43,"successMove":23,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35}],"salesM2025":30,"lenses":{"comparable":57.91,"peRel":0.9991}},"ONC":{"name":"BeOne Medicines","subtitle":"Brukinsa $3.9B global BTK leader | Tevimbra $737M, +1L HER2+ GEA w/ Ziihera (FDA Aug 25 2026) | 2026 guide $6.2-6.4B","currency":"USD","country":"CN","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":115.8,"netCashLocal":4210,"cashPS":36.3558,"tps":{"mega_bear":194.63,"bear":240.09,"base":317.64,"bull":372.37,"psychedelic_bull":442.26},"weightedTP":319.77,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","oncology.lymphoma.mcl","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.wm","oncology.lymphoma.mzl","oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.esophageal","oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","oncology.gi.hcc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.btk_reversible","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.bcl2","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","small_molecule.protein_degrader.btk_cdac","small_molecule.protein_degrader","small_molecule.kinase.btk_bcl2_next_gen"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mcl","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.wm","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mcl","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.wm","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mcl","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.esophageal","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.wm","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.2l_rr","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":76,"rarePurityWtd":90,"optionality":48,"totalTAM":32.2896,"totalWTD":21.7755724},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-13","asset":"sonro","indication":"bcl2","title":"REPORTED: Sonrotoclax (Beqalzi) FDA accelerated approval R/R MCL GRANTED May 13 2026 (ORR 52%, BGB-11417-201; first new BCL2 in a decade)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":100,"_source":"FDA","_sourceUrl":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-grants-accelerated-approval-sonrotoclax-relapsed-or-refractory-mantle-cell-lymphoma","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"RESOLVED 2026-06-30: FDA granted accelerated approval May 13 2026 for R/R MCL after >=2 lines incl. BTKi (ORR 52%, mDOR 15.8mo). Approval already reflected in apr=100 + asset name; bcl2 indication pos (75 base) governed by larger pending 1L CLL CELESTIAL-TNCLL Ph3 (2026-07-01 catalyst), so no pos change on this resolution.","_outcome":"success","failTP":318.674547,"successTP":319.944659,"baseTP":319.770737,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"commercial","indication":"mcl","title":"REPORTED: MANGROVE Ph3 1L MCL POSITIVE (Brukinsa+R vs BR) -- PFS HR 0.57 (95% CI 0.43-0.76), p<0.0001, 43% risk reduction; global filings H2 2026 (first chemo-free/maintenance-free 1L MCL regimen)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"company PR (BioSpace mirror)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/beone-medicines-announces-positive-phase-3-results-for-brukinsa-in-frontline-mantle-cell-lymphoma","_addedAt":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"RESOLVED 2026-07-01: MANGROVE 1L MCL met primary PFS endpoint (HR 0.57, p<0.0001); previously captured only in bull/psy_bull narrative prose, now recorded as a discrete REPORTED catalyst. Brukinsa mcl indication is commercial (pos/apr=100 already), so no assumption change -- confirmation of an already-priced narrative, not new upside.","_outcome":"success","failTP":319.770737,"successTP":319.770737,"baseTP":319.770737,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 25 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-25","asset":"tevimbra","indication":"pd1","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-25: FDA APPROVES Tevimbra (tislelizumab) + Ziihera (zanidatamab) + chemo in 1L HER2+ advanced gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma -- OS 26.4 vs 19.2 mo, PFS 12.4 vs 8.1 mo (HERIZON-GEA-01)","type":"label_expansion","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-zanidatamab-hrii-and-tislelizumab-jsgr-her2-positive-gastric-gastroesophageal-junction","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Confirmed FDA approval (FDA.gov). Tevimbra is a COMMERCIAL asset in this SOTP config, so its pos/apr/pen levers are inert by construction -- commercial value flows through commercialRevM. Recorded as narrative + events; the label expansion is upside to the Tevimbra revenue line, FLAGGED for manual commercialRevM review rather than auto-applied.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":319.770737,"successTP":319.770737,"baseTP":319.770737,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":96,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-31","asset":"tevimbra","indication":"pd1","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-31 (SUCCESS): HERIZON-GEA-01 second interim OS analysis -- Ziihera + chemo (partner Jazz/BeOne regimen incl. Tevimbra arm) showed a statistically significant, clinically meaningful OS benefit vs trastuzumab + chemo, meeting the remaining primary endpoint; HR improved vs the 1st interim (24.4 vs 19.2 mo, HR 0.80, NEJM May 28 2026). Topline only, numerics undisclosed -- reinforces the 1L HER2+ GEA label granted Aug 25 2026","type":"phase3_data","failTP":319.770737,"successTP":319.770737,"baseTP":319.770737,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":99,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sonro","indication":"bcl2","title":"Sonrotoclax 1L CLL CELESTIAL-TNCLL Ph3 (sonro+zanu vs ven+obin) -- MRD data expected H2 2026, could support filing","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_source":"company guidance / ASCO CELESTIAL-TNCLL","_sourceUrl":"https://www.asco.org/abstracts-presentations/238181","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Date roll 2026-07-01 -> 2026-12-31: no topline reported as of 2026-07-01; company guides MRD data 'later this year' (H2 2026). Retitled to the actual pivotal (CELESTIAL-TNCLL 1L CLL). No assumption change -- pure timing roll.","failTP":318.717629,"successTP":319.951165,"baseTP":319.770737,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4637,"sanity":{"flags":["share_severe"],"maxShare":{"pct":83,"ceilPct":65,"position":"commercial_incumbent","asset":"tevimbra","ind":"pd1","area":"oncology.gi.esophageal.escc","somB":1.1,"tamB":1.3}},"lenses":{"comparable":219.23,"eeRel":0.3966,"peRel":0.3446}},"OPK":{"name":"OPKO Health, Inc.","subtitle":"Diversified SOTP post-LabCorp BioRef sale | FY26 guide $530-560M (Services $300-312M + Products $160-170M + IP $70-80M incl Ngenla $34-37M +42% YoY) | Cash $364M MCap $1.1B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":759,"netCashLocal":364,"cashPS":0.4796,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.85,"bear":1.24,"base":1.74,"bull":2.49,"psychedelic_bull":3.9},"weightedTP":1.84,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","nephrology.ckd.shpt","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","_established_products.opko_intl_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.gh_long_acting","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.vdr_calcifediol","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","_diversified.diagnostics.serum_panel_prostate","_diversified","_diversified.diagnostics","formulation_modifier.oral_modified.legacy_oral","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.oral_modified","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tce","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":120},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":60},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.shpt","purity":56},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":12},{"area":"_established_products.opko_intl_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":93},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.shpt","purity":76},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":46},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":16},{"area":"_established_products.opko_intl_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":160},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":80},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.shpt","purity":31},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":4},{"area":"_established_products.opko_intl_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":34,"totalTAM":10.44435,"totalWTD":7.769342},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 6 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-06","asset":"ngenla_pfizer","indication":"ngenla_ped_ghd","title":"REPORTED: NGENLA Pfizer gross profit share Q2 2026 = $6.4M -- inside the $6-8M guide but only +5% YoY (vs $6.1M Q2'25), well short of the ~+40% the config had assumed; FY26 guide REAFFIRMED at $34-37M (profit share is back-half weighted and resets each Jan 1)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"OPKO Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-06 (opko.com/investors/.../detail/549) + Q2 2026 earnings call","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_outcomeRationale":"Landed inside the guided range and the FY26 $34-37M range was reaffirmed, so the ramp thesis holds and no assumption changed (ngenla_pfizer is pos/apr 100 with all sensitivity in pen). The +40% YoY framing in the original catalyst was wrong -- H1 growth is modest and the FY range depends on a materially stronger H2. Corrected in the title rather than re-rating pen on one quarter.","failTP":1.83576455,"successTP":1.83576455,"baseTP":1.83576455,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"modex_pipeline","indication":"modex_adult_ghd","title":"ModeX adult LAGH Phase 1 enrollment / TCE bispecific Ph1 initiations","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":48,"_source":"OPK IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.83481024,"successTP":1.83635956,"baseTP":1.83576455,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ngenla_pfizer","indication":"ngenla_ped_ghd","title":"NGENLA full-year profit share run-rate -- key signal for Pfizer commercial execution + SOTP unlock potential","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"OPK IR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.83576455,"successTP":1.83576455,"baseTP":1.83576455,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.83}},"ORIC":{"name":"ORIC Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"ORIC-944 PRC2 (rinzimetostat)+AR mCRPC: Himalayas-1 Ph3 RECRUITING since Jul'26 (NCT07723248) | ORIC-114 (enozertinib) EGFR ex20/PACC NSCLC data at ESMO'26 ahead of Redwood-1 Ph3'27 | cash $419.7M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":103.49,"netCashLocal":387.6,"cashPS":3.7453,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.66,"bear":5.34,"base":8.31,"bull":12.73,"psychedelic_bull":16.78},"weightedTP":8.54,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.epigenetic.prc2_eed","small_molecule","small_molecule.epigenetic","small_molecule.kinase.egfr_brain_penetrant","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":21}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":24}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":49},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":49},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":49}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":144,"totalTAM":22.0748,"totalWTD":9.0533104},"catalysts":[{"date":"AACR 2026 (Apr 17-22)","dateSort":"2026-04-20","asset":"oric944","indication":"oric944_mcrpc","title":"REPORTED: ORIC-944 (rinzimetostat) preclinical presentations at AACR 2026 -- PRC2 EED inhibitor mechanism + combo rationale data","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_source":"ORIC IR Mar 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"AACR 2026 preclinical posters supported mechanism + combo rationale for ORIC-944. Modest impact -- preclinical data, not clinical.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":7.1644364,"successTP":10.1833757,"baseTP":8.53971295,"swingPct":30,"successMove":16,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":47,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-31","asset":"oric944","indication":"oric944_mcrpc","title":"REPORTED 2026-07 (success): ORIC-944 (rinzimetostat) Himalayas-1 Ph3 mCRPC post-abiraterone INITIATED -- NCT07723248 registered Phase 3, status RECRUITING, start July 2026, primary completion Mar 2028","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07723248","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_rationale":"Sep 2 2026 freshness check against ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT07723248 'A Study to Learn About the Investigational Drug Rinzimetostat (ORIC-944) in Patients With mCRPC Who Were Previously Treated With Abiraterone Acetate (Himalayas-1)' is registered as Phase 3, RECRUITING, start July 2026, primary completion March 2028. The Ph3 start therefore happened in 2H'26 as guided (this config still carried it as pending/'not yet on clinicaltrials.gov'). Execution milestone, not data: assumptions moved only to the catalyst's pre-declared success values (base 62/70 -> 65/72).","failTP":6.75603992,"successTP":10.0038826,"baseTP":8.53971295,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-23","asset":"oric114","indication":"oric114_egfr_ex20","title":"ORIC-114 (enozertinib) DATA UPDATE — SLIPPED from mid-2026 to ESMO 2026 (three ORIC presentations announced Jul 20 2026); 1L NSCLC EGFR ex20 + PACC, Ph1b combo + mono, ahead of Redwood-1 Ph3 2027. RP2D confirmed 80 mg QD monotherapy","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":70,"_source":"ORIC IR 2026 milestones","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.9176956,"successTP":10.0764903,"baseTP":8.53971295,"swingPct":34,"successMove":13,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"oric114","indication":"oric114_egfr_ex20","title":"ORIC-114 Redwood-1 Ph3 1L EGFR ex20/PACC NSCLC initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://investors.oricpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/initial-phase-1-dose-escalation-data-oric-114-patients-egfr-and","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.0070263,"successTP":10.1954182,"baseTP":8.53971295,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.59},"readouts":[{"a":"oric944","ind":"oric944_mcrpc","ds":"2026-04-20","area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","endpoint":"rpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.96635722,"lo":1.29129474,"hi":13.8490664,"pBeatBest":0.07935,"bestDrug":"177Lu-PSMA-617 (pre-taxane)","bestValue":12.02},{"a":"oric114","ind":"oric114_egfr_ex20","ds":"2026-10-23","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":19.3413106,"lo":4.50544186,"hi":34.3136876,"pBeatBest":0.2109,"bestDrug":"osimertinib + chemo","bestValue":25.5}]},"ORKA":{"name":"Oruka Therapeutics","subtitle":"Half-life-extended biologics for skin/inflammatory: ORKA-001 IL-23p19 PASI100 63.5% @16wk EVERLAST-A (Q1y dosing aim); ORKA-002 IL-17A/F ORCA-SURGE Ph2; cash ~$1.15B post-Apr'26 offering","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":60,"netCashLocal":1150,"cashPS":19.1667,"tps":{"mega_bear":18.62,"bear":22.72,"base":60.93,"bull":121.29,"psychedelic_bull":135.63},"weightedTP":67.88,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23p19","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il17af"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":331,"totalTAM":61.8,"totalWTD":14.323386},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"orka001","indication":"orka001_pso","title":"ORKA-001 EVERLAST-A long-term PASI maintenance data (Q1y dosing readout)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/13/3294407/0/en/Oruka-Therapeutics-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Corporate-Update.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":33.876927,"successTP":138.495929,"baseTP":67.8838562,"swingPct":154,"successMove":104,"failMove":-50,"yourPoS":43,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":55},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"orka002","indication":"orka002_pso","title":"ORKA-002 ORCA-SURGE Ph2 psoriasis topline (initiated Mar 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://ir.orukatx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":54.4991395,"successTP":94.8046905,"baseTP":67.8838562,"swingPct":60,"successMove":40,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":41,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":90.62}},"ORNBV":{"name":"Orion Oyj","subtitle":"Finnish specialty pharma; Nubeqa (darolutamide, Bayer royalty) hit MAX ROYALTY TIER Q2'26 -- H1'26 Nubeqa EUR 381.8M, group sales EUR 939M (+22%), FY26 guide raised | Easyhaler + Stalevo","currency":"EUR","country":"FI","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":140.9,"netCashLocal":300,"cashPS":2.1292,"tps":{"mega_bear":42.25,"bear":69.19,"base":96.13,"bull":123.07,"psychedelic_bull":163.48},"weightedTP":99.5,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ar","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.gpcr.beta_agonist_corticosteroid","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.enzyme.comt","small_molecule.enzyme","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.enzyme.cyp11a1"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":72},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":36},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":29},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":75},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":61},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":38},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":30},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":15},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":5,"totalTAM":59.6818,"totalWTD":57.08866},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"nubeqa","indication":"nubeqa_prostate","title":"Nubeqa €1B Orion-recorded sales potential trajectory + ARANOTE label expansions","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Orion guidance Jan 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":99.4961855,"successTP":99.4961855,"baseTP":99.4961855,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"odm_208","indication":"odm208_prostate","title":"Opevesostat OMAHA1/OMAHA2a Ph3 readouts (MSD-led; Orion royalty)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Orion pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":99.4961855,"successTP":99.4961855,"baseTP":99.4961855,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1750,"lenses":{"comparable":45.73,"eeRel":1,"peRel":1.1716},"readouts":[{"a":"odm_208","ind":"odm208_prostate","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","endpoint":"rpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.090653,"lo":1.63337134,"hi":13.1416008,"pBeatBest":0.052,"bestDrug":"177Lu-PSMA-617 (pre-taxane)","bestValue":12.02}]},"OVID":{"name":"Ovid Therapeutics Inc.","subtitle":"OV329 GABA-AT for DR-focal + TSC epilepsy Ph2 H2 26 + OV4071/OV350 KCC2 platform neuro + OV888/GV101 ROCK2 CCM (Graviton) | Cash $130M to late 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":186.6,"netCashLocal":169.8,"cashPS":0.91,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.44,"bear":0.69,"base":1.33,"bull":2.43,"psychedelic_bull":3.93},"weightedTP":1.55,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.focal","cns","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.tsc","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.cerebrovascular.ccm","cns.cerebrovascular"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.gaba_aminotransferase","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.ion_channel.kcc2_activator","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.kinase.rock2","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":91},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":51},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":45},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":41},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":32},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.ccm","purity":27},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":65},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":62},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":51},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":39},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":33},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.ccm","purity":33},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":16}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.tsc","purity":83},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":81},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":58},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":40},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":34},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.ccm","purity":3},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":2}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":461,"totalTAM":17.0995,"totalWTD":3.049134},"catalysts":[{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ov329","indication":"ov329_focal","title":"OV329 open-label PoC PPR study readout (slipped from Q3 2026; Q2 PR 2026-08-13: 5/7/9 mg dosing, results \"near year end 2026\")","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.26814561,"successTP":1.69013321,"baseTP":1.55439237,"swingPct":27,"successMove":9,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"ov329","indication":"ov329_focal","title":"OV329 Ph2 focal epilepsy interim/topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"high","failTP":1.26814561,"successTP":1.67500887,"baseTP":1.55439237,"swingPct":26,"successMove":8,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.54},"readouts":[{"a":"ov329","ind":"ov329_focal","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":16.8823584,"lo":-3.57777612,"hi":40.8730921,"pBeatBest":0.1048,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33},{"a":"ov329","ind":"ov329_focal","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":16.8598344,"lo":-3.84595435,"hi":40.8259181,"pBeatBest":0.106,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33}]},"OXB":{"name":"Oxford Biomedica plc","subtitle":"UK gene-therapy CDMO | H1 26 rev £79.8M (+9%); FY26 guide cut to £180-200M (Durham ~6mo late); backlog £193M | clients incl BMS/Pfizer/Novartis | net cash £21M","currency":"GBP","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":100,"netCashLocal":21,"cashPS":0.21,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.77,"bear":1.46,"base":3.36,"bull":6.35,"psychedelic_bull":14.38},"weightedTP":4,"meta":{"areas":["_platform.cdmo.gene_therapy","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.lentiviral_aav","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"22 Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-22","asset":"cdmo_services","indication":"cdmo_partner_contracts","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-22: OXB H1 2026 interims — rev £79.8M (+9%), loss £37.0M; FY26 guide CUT to £180-200M (from £220-240M, Durham integration ~6mo late); gross cash £75M / net £21M","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/oxford-biomedica--oxb/half-year-trading-update-and-notice-of-results/9709646","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.00086535,"successTP":4.00086535,"baseTP":4.00086535,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":220,"lenses":{"comparable":5.47}},"PALI":{"name":"Palisade Bio","subtitle":"Micro-cap: PALI-2108 oral PDE4 prodrug (terminal ileum/colon-targeted) -- UC Ph2 Q3'26 (IND Q2'26, primary H2'27); Crohn's Ph2 Q1'27 (IND H2'26); $14.5M cash Dec'25","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":212.09,"netCashLocal":125.2,"cashPS":0.5903,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.25,"bear":0.32,"base":0.55,"bull":0.86,"psychedelic_bull":1.3},"weightedTP":0.5,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.pde4_prodrug","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":111},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":89}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":109},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":91}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":142},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":100},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":58}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":309,"totalTAM":37.475,"totalWTD":9.155},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"pali2108","indication":"pali2108_uc","title":"RESOLVED: PALI-2108 UC Phase 2 IND cleared by FDA","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":38,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":48,"success_apr":58,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"FDA cleared the IND for PALI-2108 on 2026-06-29, enabling the global Phase 2 ASCENTRA-UC study (~204 moderate-to-severe UC pts, 12-wk induction + 36-wk maintenance to Wk48). Enrollment expected 2H 2026; primary efficacy results 2H 2027. De-risks the Phase 2 start (submission milestone achieved and cleared, one step beyond the tracked 'submission' event).","_source":"https://palisadebio.com/palisade-bio-receives-fda-clearance-of-ind-for-pali-2108-and-plans-to-initiate-global-phase-2-ascentra-uc-study-in-ulcerative-colitis/","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.38925066,"successTP":0.606350166,"baseTP":0.500950202,"swingPct":13,"successMove":6,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"pali2108","indication":"pali2108_crohns","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-22: PALI-2108 Crohn's Phase 2 IND CLEARED by FDA (ASCENTRA-CD, ~60 pts; first dosing Q1 2027; wk12 endoscopic readout Q1 2028)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":38,"fail_apr":48,"success_pos":48,"success_apr":58,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/PALI/8-k-palisade-bio-inc-reports-material-event","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.447313642,"successTP":0.560207582,"baseTP":0.500950202,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"pali2108","indication":"pali2108_uc","title":"PALI-2108 UC Phase 2 (ASCENTRA-UC) enrollment start -- guided 2H 2026 (slipped from Q3)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/PALI/8-k-palisade-bio-inc-reports-material-event","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.392784003,"successTP":0.608319749,"baseTP":0.500950202,"swingPct":13,"successMove":6,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"pali2108","indication":"pali2108_uc","title":"PALI-2108 UC Phase 2 primary efficacy readout","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/PALI/8-k-palisade-bio-inc-reports-material-event","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.352135059,"successTP":0.622700248,"baseTP":0.500950202,"swingPct":54,"successMove":24,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.58,"peRel":7.2517},"readouts":[{"a":"pali2108","ind":"pali2108_uc","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":10.8821705,"lo":-3.40782621,"hi":21.9886936,"pBeatBest":0.3117,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7}]},"PBLS":{"name":"Parabilis Medicines, Inc.","subtitle":"Helicon peptide platform | zolucatetide = first DIRECT β-catenin:TCF inhibitor | desmoid Ph3-planned (FT+Orphan) + FAP + Wnt-driven CRC | Regeneron collab | ~$900M cash (record $670M IPO Jun'26)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":123.53,"netCashLocal":1120.7,"cashPS":9.0723,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.31,"bear":11.4,"base":16.22,"bull":24.2,"psychedelic_bull":33.58},"weightedTP":18.18,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","oncology","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.gi.colorectal.fap","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss"],"modalities":["peptide.protein_binder.bcatenin_helicon","peptide","peptide.protein_binder"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.fap","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.fap","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.desmoid","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.fap","purity":3}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":27,"rarePurityWtd":21,"optionality":373,"totalTAM":13.1377,"totalWTD":2.7787539},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zolucatetide","indication":"zolu_wnt_solid","title":"Zolucatetide Ph1/2 Wnt-driven solid tumor (incl. CRC) expansion data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":55,"_source":"https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/parabilis-biotech-ipo-price-helicon-peptides-cancer-verdine/822397/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.1264452,"successTP":21.2912314,"baseTP":18.1817644,"swingPct":61,"successMove":17,"failMove":-44,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-18,"daysOut":null,"materiality":46},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"zolucatetide","indication":"zolu_fap","title":"Zolucatetide FAP polyp-burden data + dedicated FAP trial update","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":58,"_source":"https://parabilismed.com/press-release/parabilis-medicines-reports-early-clinical-evidence-that-zolucatetide-reduces-polyp-burden-in-a-patient-with-familial-adenomatous-polyposis/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":17.84025,"successTP":18.487933,"baseTP":18.1817644,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"1H 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"zolucatetide","indication":"zolu_desmoid","title":"Zolucatetide desmoid-tumor registrational Ph3 initiation -- guided 1H 2027 after Q4'26 FDA engagement (mature Ph1/2 desmoid data: ESMO oral Oct 24 2026)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/cancer-focused-parabilis-upsized-670m-ipo-breaks-new-record-biotechs","_confidence":"high","failTP":17.2989865,"successTP":18.6544745,"baseTP":18.1817644,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":17.92},"readouts":[{"a":"zolucatetide","ind":"zolu_wnt_solid","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":2.29820632,"lo":0,"hi":17.8167256,"pBeatBest":0.29095,"bestDrug":"trifluridine/tipiracil + bev","bestValue":6.3}]},"PBYI":{"name":"Puma Biotechnology, Inc.","subtitle":"NERLYNX (neratinib) HER2+ breast FY25 $204M product + $24M royalty = $228M; debt-free May 2026 | Alisertib Aurora-A Ph2 SCLC + HR+ breast | Cash $101M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":51.62,"netCashLocal":93.9,"cashPS":1.8191,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.32,"bear":8.74,"base":10.57,"bull":12.52,"psychedelic_bull":14.23},"weightedTP":10.2,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast.her2_pos.brain_mets","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.lung","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.her2_irreversible","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.aurora_a"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.brain_mets","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.brain_mets","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":96},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.brain_mets","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.2l_plus","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":48,"totalTAM":23.99774,"totalWTD":16.2098457},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-30","asset":"ali","indication":"ali_breast","title":"Alisertib ALISCA-Breast1 Ph2 HR+/HER2- optimal dose + efficacy","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.21676497,"successTP":10.5170411,"baseTP":10.1965479,"swingPct":13,"successMove":3,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":46,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"ali","indication":"ali_sclc","title":"Alisertib ALISCA-Lung1 Ph2 SCLC initial efficacy (gates Ph3 design; still enrolling at 70mg BID -- meaningful interim slipped to 2027 per Q2'26 call)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"high","failTP":9.72323461,"successTP":10.3483215,"baseTP":10.1965479,"swingPct":6,"successMove":1,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":46,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":204,"lenses":{"comparable":15.93,"eeRel":1.4737,"peRel":1.2436}},"PCRX":{"name":"Pacira BioSciences, Inc.","subtitle":"Postsurgical pain specialty | FY25 $726M (+3.6%): Exparel $575M (+5%) + Zilretta $117M + iovera $24M | Apr 2025 Fresenius patent settlement protects franchise to ~2030; full LOE 2039+","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":40.5,"netCashLocal":202,"cashPS":4.9877,"tps":{"mega_bear":21.59,"bear":31.73,"base":47.2,"bull":67.87,"psychedelic_bull":96.95},"weightedTP":48.99,"meta":{"areas":["cns.pain.acute","cns","cns.pain","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","cns.pain.neuropathic"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.liposomal.bupivacaine","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.liposomal","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.corticosteroid_ia","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","_diversified.devices.cryo_nerve_block","_diversified","_diversified.devices","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.intra_articular","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":102},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":51},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":50},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":49},{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":48}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":89},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":57},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":55},{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":54},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":45}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":109},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoarthritis_knee","purity":79},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":60},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":40},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":11}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":13,"totalTAM":26.534,"totalWTD":23.4986705},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-07-27","dateSort":"2026-07-27","asset":"pcrx_201","indication":"knee_oa_gt","title":"RESOLVED 2026-07-27: PCRX-201 ASCEND Ph2 Part B initiated -- first patient enrolled (~90 pts, new US commercial-scale manufacturing process)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"PCRX pipeline","_confidence":"high","_note":"NOT YET CONFIRMED occurred as of Jun 24 2026. Part A fully enrolled (49 pts); per Q1 2026 earnings call (Apr 30 2026) Part B (~90 pts, commercial-scale suspension batch process) expected to initiate around midyear 2026, Part A topline late 2026. Nudged dateSort to mid-late 2026 pending confirmation. Source: Pacira Q1 2026 earnings call (Motley Fool transcript); Part A enrollment-complete PR.","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/27/3333467/0/en/pacira-biosciences-advances-pcrx-201-development-program-with-successful-transition-to-scalable-commercial-manufacturing-process.html","failTP":46.3441671,"successTP":56.3642282,"baseTP":48.9888049,"swingPct":6,"successMove":5,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Late 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"pcrx_201","indication":"knee_oa_gt","title":"PCRX-201 ASCEND Ph2 Part A topline (knee OA gene therapy; durability)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"PCRX FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","_note":"2026-10-09: may be absorbed into the Viatris deal (close YE26) rather than reported standalone.","failTP":42.124238,"successTP":54.8063885,"baseTP":48.9888049,"swingPct":26,"successMove":12,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"exparel","indication":"postsurg_pain","title":"Exparel growth trajectory + ANDA litigation progress (WhiteOak + Qilu suits)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"PCRX FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":48.9888049,"successTP":48.9888049,"baseTP":48.9888049,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"pcrx_201","indication":"knee_oa_gt","title":"Viatris tender offer close for Pacira at $36.50/sh cash (majority tender + HSR)","type":"ma_close","binary":true,"_source":"Viatris 8-K 2026-10-08","_confidence":"high","failTP":39.3091964,"successTP":43.6251515,"baseTP":48.9888049,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-7,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":716,"lenses":{"comparable":76.1,"peRel":1.1536}},"PCVX":{"name":"Vaxcyte","subtitle":"VAX-31 31-valent PCV: OPUS-1 Ph3 HIT Oct 5'26 (NI 20/20 vs PCV20, 28/28 primary; 3 & 12F <0.667 vs PCV21); OPUS-2/3 data H1'27; BLA H1'28; infant Ph2 H1'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":144.4,"netCashLocal":2507.7,"cashPS":17.3663,"tps":{"mega_bear":19.88,"bear":25.39,"base":32.78,"bull":40.34,"psychedelic_bull":46.32},"weightedTP":32.58,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines"],"modalities":["vaccine.conjugate.mixed","vaccine","vaccine.conjugate"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":200},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":78,"totalTAM":12.255,"totalWTD":6.877506},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 5, 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-05","asset":"vax31","indication":"vax31_adult","title":"RESOLVED 2026-10-05: VAX-31 OPUS-1 Ph3 adult topline HIT -- all primary NI endpoints met (20/20 vs Prevnar 20, 17/19 vs Capvaxive at 0.667; 3 & 12F >0.5); vax31_adult moved to success values","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Vaxcyte PR 2026-10-05","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/05/3374299/0/en/vaxcyte-reports-positive-topline-data-from-opus-1-the-pivotal-adult-phase-3-trial-of-vax-31-the-company-s-31-valent-pneumococcal-conjugate-vaccine-candidate.html","failTP":20.893289,"successTP":35.6125133,"baseTP":32.5775778,"swingPct":45,"successMove":9,"failMove":-36,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"vax31","indication":"vax31_adult","title":"VAX-31 OPUS-2 (+flu concomitant) + OPUS-3 (prior-vaccinated) Ph3 topline data","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://investors.vaxcyte.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vaxcyte-completes-enrollment-opus-1-and-opus-2-phase-3-trials","_confidence":"high","failTP":21.3754224,"successTP":35.9955967,"baseTP":32.5775778,"swingPct":44,"successMove":10,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":36},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"vax31","indication":"vax31_infant","title":"VAX-31 infant Ph2 dose-finding data (primary 3-dose series + booster)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://investors.vaxcyte.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","_note":"2026-07-09 self-audit: rolled from dateSort 2026-10-31 -- Jan 2026 guidance moved infant Ph2 topline (primary series + booster) to by end of H1 2027; adult OPUS-1/2/3 timing unchanged; roll only, no pos/apr change","failTP":28.4848668,"successTP":34.7964095,"baseTP":32.5775778,"swingPct":20,"successMove":7,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":32.84}},"PEPG":{"name":"PepGen","subtitle":"Post-FREEDOM2 5mg/kg (22.9% splicing ex-outlier); 10mg/kg MAD topline H2 2026; Novartis/Avidity del-desiran Ph3 HARBOR MISSED in DM1 Sep 8 2026 -- endpoint read-across risk","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":69,"netCashLocal":148,"cashPS":2.1449,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.16,"bear":0.48,"base":1.21,"bull":3.66,"psychedelic_bull":7.26},"weightedTP":1.63,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.splice_modulator.edon_pmo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.splice_modulator"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":170},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":15}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":196},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":199},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":1},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":1}],"phase":"phase2","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":492,"totalTAM":7.9775,"totalWTD":1.3473625},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"edodm1","indication":"dm1","title":"PGN-EDODM1 FREEDOM2 10 mg/kg MAD splicing data -- company guidance H2 2026 (not yet reported as of Sep 8 2026; date rolled from Sep 1). SAD 10 mg/kg previously showed 29.1% mean splicing correction (n=4); FREEDOM2 5 mg/kg MAD 22.9% ex-outlier","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"failTP":0.691626972,"successTP":2.89314883,"baseTP":1.62810132,"swingPct":136,"successMove":78,"failMove":-58,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":45}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.4}},"PETW":{"name":"PharmaEssentia Corp.","subtitle":"Taiwan biopharma; Besremi (ropeginterferon): FDA-approved polycythemia vera 2021 + ESSENTIAL THROMBOCYTHEMIA 31 Aug'26 -- 1st new ET therapy in ~30yrs, 1L-inclusive label | MF + HBV pipeline","currency":"TWD","country":"TW","region":"ASIA.CN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":371,"netCashLocal":15000,"cashPS":40.4313,"tps":{"mega_bear":661.28,"bear":1046.44,"base":1500.75,"bull":2041.29,"psychedelic_bull":2784.26},"weightedTP":1589.94,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","oncology.myeloid.mpn.et","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.interferon_pegylated","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.et","purity":42},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":27}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.et","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":17}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.et","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":21}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":21,"totalTAM":18.2025,"totalWTD":15.101325},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 31 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-31","asset":"besremi_et","indication":"besremi_et_ind","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-31: Besremi (ropeginterferon alfa-2b-njft) APPROVED by FDA for adults with essential thrombocythemia -- first new ET therapy in ~30 years; SURPASS-ET durable modified-ELN response 37.4% vs 3.6% for anagrelide at both months 9 and 12","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"FDA / PharmaEssentia PR 2026-08-31","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/fda-approves-treatment-essential-thrombocythemia","_note":"RESOLVED -- HIT. The PDUFA goal date was 30 Aug 2026 (a Sunday); the approval was announced 31 Aug 2026. Catalyst-authorised resolution: the pre-declared success values were pos 92 / apr 96, but the approval is REALISED, so pos/apr were taken to 100/100 per the repo convention for an approved drug, with commercial-uptake dispersion left in the existing pen ladder (0.70/0.90/1.00/1.10/1.25). Asset status set to \"approved\", NOT \"commercial\": this is a SOTP config and compute._is_commercial excludes only status == \"commercial\", so tagging it commercial would have silently zeroed the whole indication and forced the value into commercialRevM. ET revenue has not started yet, so \"approved\" is both the accurate state and the safe one.","failTP":1288.3057,"successTP":1689.36077,"baseTP":1589.93793,"swingPct":13,"successMove":3,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"besremi","indication":"besremi_pv","title":"Besremi continued global PV ramp + Puerto Rico mfg facility build-out + EU/Asia expansion","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"PharmaEssentia FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":1589.93793,"successTP":1589.93793,"baseTP":1589.93793,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"besremi_et","indication":"besremi_et_ind","title":"Besremi ET launch uptake -- first full year on the expanded label; watch 1L cytoreductive-naive share against generic hydroxyurea and anagrelide","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"FDA approval 2026-08-31","_addedAt":"2026-09-04T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Approval is realised so pos/apr are fixed at 100/100; the open question is commercial penetration, which lives in pen and the ET company_slice, and this catalyst marks when to revisit them","failTP":1485.40366,"successTP":1689.36077,"baseTP":1589.93793,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":465,"lenses":{"comparable":17546.48,"eeRel":0.6344,"peRel":0.9757}},"PFE":{"name":"Pfizer Inc.","subtitle":"$62.6B 2025 | Eliquis 2026 + Ibrance 2027 + Vyndaqel 2028 LOE wave | Seagen ADCs offset | Metsera obesity (berobenatide Ph3)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":5700,"netCashLocal":-51781,"cashPS":-9.0844,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.67,"bear":6.75,"base":14.71,"bull":26.51,"psychedelic_bull":42.17},"weightedTP":17.23,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","cardio_metabolic.attr","infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","infectious_disease.viral","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","cns.pain.migraine","cns","cns.pain","infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.skin.melanoma.braf_mut","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.gi.colorectal.braf_v600e","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.breast.her2_pos.brain_mets","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","oncology.breast.tnbc.brca_mut","oncology.breast.tnbc","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","women_health.menopause.hrt","women_health","women_health.menopause","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","cns.pain.neuropathic","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","oncology.supportive_care.cachexia","oncology.supportive_care","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.factor_xa","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone.ttr","small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone","vaccine.protein_subunit.pneumococcal","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","vaccine.mrna.covid","vaccine.mrna","small_molecule.antiviral.sars_cov2_3cl","small_molecule.antiviral","small_molecule.kinase.cdk46","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload.nectin4_mmae","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.undisclosed_payload","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ar","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.gpcr.cgrp","small_molecule.gpcr","vaccine.protein_subunit.rsv","small_molecule.kinase.alk","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.cd30","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","small_molecule.kinase.braf_mek","small_molecule.kinase.her2","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bcma_cd3","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","small_molecule.enzyme.parp1_2","small_molecule.kinase.jak1","small_molecule.gpcr.s1p_modulator","small_molecule.kinase.jak3","_diversified.branded.hospital_anti_infective","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.her2","small_molecule.protein_degrader.serd_protac","small_molecule.protein_degrader","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_gdf15","biologic.antibody.mab","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.long_acting","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.amylin_analog","small_molecule.gpcr.glp1_oral"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":143},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":72},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.cachexia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.braf_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.braf_v600e","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.brain_mets","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.brca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":115},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.braf_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.braf_v600e","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.brain_mets","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.brca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.cachexia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":194},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.brca_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc.brca_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.tnbc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.spaf","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pneumococcal","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.covid","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.covid_treatment","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mhspc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.hodgkin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.braf_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.braf_v600e","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.brain_mets","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.cachexia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":7,"rarePurityWtd":10,"optionality":56,"totalTAM":804.4065,"totalWTD":514.473633},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-01","asset":"vepdegestrant","indication":"vepd_breast","title":"RESOLVED 2026-05-01: Vepdegestrant (Veppanu) FDA APPROVED for ESR1m ER+/HER2- breast 2L+ (VERITAC-2); rights licensed to Rigel 12-May-2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://ir.arvinas.com/news-releases/news-release-details/arvinas-and-pfizer-enter-transaction-rigel-pharmaceuticals","_confidence":"high","failTP":17.2101262,"successTP":17.2438371,"baseTP":17.2345771,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"berobenatide","indication":"bero_obesity","title":"Berobenatide (PF-08653944) first Phase 3 readouts (monthly GLP-1, chronic weight management)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000078003/000007800326000094/pfe-6282026xex99.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":16.7235897,"successTP":17.5097075,"baseTP":17.2345771,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":60090,"lenses":{"comparable":19.16,"eeRel":1.6607,"peRel":0.5118},"readouts":[{"a":"berobenatide","ind":"bero_obesity","ds":"2027-12-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":14.8239518,"lo":-0.733347737,"hi":28.1387108,"pBeatBest":0.09315,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"PFIZER":{"name":"Pfizer Limited (India)","subtitle":"Indian MNC subsidiary | FY25 INR 2,128 cr | Prevenar 13 vaccine + Eliquis license + Becosules + Becozinc | top-15 Indian MNC; defensive dividend","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":45.75,"netCashLocal":10000,"cashPS":218.5792,"tps":{"mega_bear":2579.23,"bear":4153.01,"base":5508.2,"bull":8415.3,"psychedelic_bull":13333.33},"weightedTP":6063.39,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.india_branded","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.india_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"pfizer_in_branded","indication":"pfizer_in_div","title":"Pfizer India Q2 FY27 results (Sep 2026 quarter)","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Pfizer India IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":6063.38798,"successTP":6063.38798,"baseTP":6063.38798,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":255,"lenses":{"comparable":1972.38,"peRel":1.0172}},"PGEN":{"name":"Precigen","subtitle":"PAPZIMEOS (PRGN-2012) FDA Aug'25 -- FIRST RRP immunotherapy (51% CR); Q1'26 $21.6M -> Q2'26 $53.1M (+146% QoQ), first profitable quarter (net income $20.1M); ~315M lives covered, permanent J-code","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":356.51,"netCashLocal":56.7,"cashPS":0.159,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.05,"bear":3.33,"base":6.09,"bull":8.33,"psychedelic_bull":10.9},"weightedTP":5.66,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.upper_airway.rrp","respiratory","respiratory.upper_airway"],"modalities":["vaccine.therapeutic.vector.adenoverse","vaccine","vaccine.therapeutic","vaccine.therapeutic.vector"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.rrp","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.rrp","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway.rrp","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.upper_airway","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":7.532,"totalWTD":7.532},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"papzimeos","indication":"papz_rrp","title":"PAPZIMEOS cash flow break-even milestone (FY26 target)","type":"milestone","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/PGEN/10-q-precigen-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-e7e98864b9ed.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.56252271,"successTP":7.90514696,"baseTP":5.66109319,"swingPct":23,"successMove":12,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"papzimeos","indication":"papz_rrp","title":"PAPZIMEOS EU MAA submission","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://investors.precigen.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.56252271,"successTP":7.90514696,"baseTP":5.66109319,"swingPct":39,"successMove":20,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":49}],"salesM2025":3.4,"lenses":{"comparable":13.58}},"PHAR":{"name":"Pharming Group N.V.","subtitle":"Dutch rare-disease commercial | Q2'26 rev $90.2M (-3%): RUCONEST $72.3M (-10%) + Joenja $17.9M (+40%) | FY26 guide CUT $30M to $375-395M; opex cut to $315-320M | shares -22%","currency":"USD","country":"NL","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":707.78,"netCashLocal":61.6,"cashPS":0.087,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.51,"bear":0.87,"base":1.34,"bull":2.29,"psychedelic_bull":4.11},"weightedTP":1.54,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoinflammatory.periodic_fever","immunology.autoinflammatory"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.complement.c1_inhibitor","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.complement","small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_delta","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory.periodic_fever","purity":135},{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory","purity":67},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":65},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":33}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory.periodic_fever","purity":135},{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory","purity":67},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":65},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":33}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":33,"rarePurityWtd":33,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":12.8825,"totalWTD":12.8825},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"joenja","indication":"joenja_apds","title":"REPORTED: Pharming Q2/H1 2026 (Jul 30 2026) — revenue $90.2M (-3%); RUCONEST $72.3M (-10% Y/Y, +24% Q/Q, active patient base 93% of prior year); Joenja $17.9M (+40%); FY26 revenue guidance CUT $30M to $375-395M, opex guidance cut $15M to $315-320M; company expects RUCONEST to stabilise and return to growth in H2 2026","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Pharming IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.53599424,"successTP":1.53599424,"baseTP":1.53599424,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-29","asset":"ruconest","indication":"ruconest_hae","title":"Pharming Q3 2026 results -- first full quarter against the cut FY26 guide ($375-395M); RUCONEST erosion vs oral HAE prophylaxis is the key line","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.pharming.com/investors","_rationale":"Added Sep 2 2026 (freshness): config had no catalyst after the Jul 30 2026 H1 print. RUCONEST fell 10% Y/Y in Q2 with the active patient base at 93% of prior year; Q3 tests whether that erosion is stabilising or accelerating.","failTP":1.53599424,"successTP":1.53599424,"baseTP":1.53599424,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Mar 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-15","asset":"joenja","indication":"joenja_apds","title":"Pharming FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance -- Joenja/leniolisib growth trajectory and whether it offsets RUCONEST decline","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://www.pharming.com/investors","_rationale":"Added Sep 2 2026 (freshness). Joenja grew 40% in Q2'26 off a small base; the FY26 print is where the mix shift from a declining acute-HAE product to a growing orphan franchise either shows up or does not.","failTP":1.53599424,"successTP":1.53599424,"baseTP":1.53599424,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":376,"lenses":{"comparable":3.09,"eeRel":0.6784,"peRel":0.224}},"PHAT":{"name":"Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Single-asset commercial: Voquezna (vonoprazan P-CAB; Takeda NA license) | FY25 $175M (+217%); Q2'26 $74.3M (+88%), first operating profit ex-SBC | FY26 guide narrowed $310-325M | EoE Ph2 topline Q4'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":82.05,"netCashLocal":16.4,"cashPS":0.1999,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.97,"bear":6.08,"base":10.36,"bull":16.79,"psychedelic_bull":25.38},"weightedTP":11.35,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.proton_pump_ppi","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":120},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":80},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":60},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":40}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":163},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":82},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":37},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":18}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":198},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":99},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":36,"totalTAM":9.4825,"totalWTD":6.96334375},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"voquezna_gerd","indication":"gerd_voquezna","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-30 (SUCCESS): Q2'26 net revenue $74.3M (+88% y/y, +27% q/q) -- Phathom reached OPERATING PROFITABILITY excluding stock-based comp for the first time; opex $63.1M (-33% y/y); ~325K VOQUEZNA scripts in the quarter (+88%), 1.7M cumulative. FY26 revenue guidance narrowed to $310-325M (from $320-345M) on prescription-access friction","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Phathom FY26 guidance Feb 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.3512224,"successTP":11.3512224,"baseTP":11.3512224,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"voquezna_eoe","indication":"eoe_voquezna","title":"pHalcon-EoE-201 Phase 2 12-wk blinded topline (EoE label expansion) -- enrollment completed Jun 2026; topline guided Q4 2026 (Q2-26 PR)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Phathom Q1 2026 update","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.2755145,"successTP":11.4298388,"baseTP":11.3512224,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":175,"lenses":{"comparable":9.67}},"PHM":{"name":"PharmaMar S.A.","subtitle":"Spanish marine oncology -- Zepzelca SCLC (EU direct + Jazz US full approval Oct 2025 + $50M milestone) + Yondelis STS partnered worldwide. FY25 €221M +27% / recurring €144M","currency":"EUR","country":"ES","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":18.4,"netCashLocal":126.5,"cashPS":6.875,"tps":{"mega_bear":24.26,"bear":33.97,"base":53.08,"bull":72.37,"psychedelic_bull":101.17},"weightedTP":54.08,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.sclc","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.sarcoma.sts","oncology.sarcoma","_established_products.api_supply_oncology","_established_products","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma"],"modalities":["small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.lurbinectedin","small_molecule","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.trabectedin","_diversified.branded.marine_api_supply","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.ecubectedin","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.plitidepsin"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":17},{"area":"_established_products.api_supply_oncology","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":5},{"area":"_established_products.api_supply_oncology","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":135},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":20},{"area":"_established_products.api_supply_oncology","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":54,"rarePurityWtd":62,"optionality":15,"totalTAM":11.19724,"totalWTD":9.7786621},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-10-15","dateSort":"2025-10-15","asset":"zepzelca","indication":"sclc_combo","title":"REPORTED: FDA full approval Zepzelca + Tecentriq combo as 1L maintenance ES-SCLC (Oct 2025; Jazz US partner) -- IMforte Ph3: PFS 5.4 vs 2.1 mo (46% risk reduction), OS 13.2 vs 10.6 mo; $50M milestone to PharmaMar","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Jazz/PharmaMar PR + FDA approval Oct 2025; https://pharmamar.com/en/fda-approves-pharmamars-zepzelca-lurbinectedin-and-atezolizumab-tecentriq-combination-as-first-line-maintenance-therapy-for-extensive-stage-small-cell-lung-cancer/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Verified reported + already reflected in config subtitle/assets; title normalised to leading REPORTED: prefix on 2026-08-18 freshness pass so the overdue-catalyst scan stops re-flagging it.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":54.0776319,"successTP":54.0776319,"baseTP":54.0776319,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 6 2025","dateSort":"2025-11-06","asset":"yondelis","indication":"sts_yondelis","title":"REPORTED: Janssen (J&J) paid PharmaMar a $10M Yondelis US commercial milestone (PR Nov 6 2025, per Aug-2019 licence agreement); separate $8.7M Europe commercial milestone same date","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"PharmaMar PR Nov 6 2025; https://pharmamar.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PR_Janssen_Milestone2025.pdf","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Verified reported + already reflected in config subtitle/assets; title normalised to leading REPORTED: prefix on 2026-08-18 freshness pass so the overdue-catalyst scan stops re-flagging it.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":54.0776319,"successTP":54.0776319,"baseTP":54.0776319,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-26","asset":"zepzelca","indication":"sclc_combo","title":"REPORTED: PharmaMar FY25 results -- EUR221M revenue +27%; net profit +187%; recurring EUR144M; Zepzelca EU EUR37.5M +31%","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"PharmaMar FY25 PR Feb 26 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Verified reported + already reflected in config subtitle/assets; title normalised to leading REPORTED: prefix on 2026-08-18 freshness pass so the overdue-catalyst scan stops re-flagging it.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":54.0776319,"successTP":54.0776319,"baseTP":54.0776319,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jun 1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"zepzelca","indication":"sclc_combo","title":"REPORTED: EUROPEAN COMMISSION APPROVED Zepzelca (lurbinectedin) + atezolizumab as 1L MAINTENANCE for extensive-stage SCLC (Jun 1 2026; CHMP positive opinion Mar 27 2026), on IMforte Ph3 -- 46% reduction in the risk of progression or death and 27% reduction in the risk of death vs atezolizumab alone. Also approved in Australia and Singapore","type":"ema_approval","severity":"high","failTP":54.0776319,"successTP":54.0776319,"baseTP":54.0776319,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jun 12 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-12","asset":"zepzelca","indication":"sclc_combo","title":"REPORTED: LAGOON Ph3 CONFIRMATORY TRIAL FAILED (Jun 12 2026) -- Zepzelca MONOTHERAPY in 2L SCLC missed on OS, median 8.7 vs 10.7 months for control. Exposes the 2020 US ACCELERATED approval in 2L to withdrawal; Jazz and PharmaMar state it does not affect the 1L maintenance indication, which is the only Zepzelca indication this config models","type":"phase3_data","severity":"high","failTP":54.0776319,"successTP":54.0776319,"baseTP":54.0776319,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 29 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-29","asset":"zepzelca","indication":"sclc_combo","title":"REPORTED: PharmaMar H1 2026 -- recurring revenue EUR85.1M (+18%), lurbinectedin partner royalties EUR31.6M, net profit EUR0.6M (H1 2025 had ~EUR35M one-offs); net cash EUR126.4M (cash 169.5, debt 43.0)","type":"other","severity":"low","failTP":54.0776319,"successTP":54.0776319,"baseTP":54.0776319,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"ecubectedin","indication":"ovarian_endometrial","title":"Ecubectedin (PM14) Phase 2 ovarian/endometrial basket update at SITC/ESMO 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":78,"_source":"PharmaMar pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":52.5713182,"successTP":55.7355725,"baseTP":54.0776319,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":37,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":184,"lenses":{"comparable":38.57,"eeRel":0.4878,"peRel":0.8729},"readouts":[{"a":"ecubectedin","ind":"ovarian_endometrial","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":15.7008155,"lo":0,"hi":43.7126645,"pBeatBest":0.2188,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3}]},"PHVS":{"name":"Pharvaris","subtitle":"Oral HAE: deucrictibant RAPIDe-3 Ph3 POSITIVE Dec 3'25 (1.28h onset; met 11/11 2°); NDA ACCEPTED Jul'26 (PDUFA Apr 23'27); CHAPTER-3 prophylaxis Ph3 POSITIVE Sep 8'26 (-83% attacks); MCap $2.5B","currency":"USD","country":"NL","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":65.41,"netCashLocal":386,"cashPS":5.9012,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.57,"bear":18.16,"base":22.95,"bull":28.39,"psychedelic_bull":32.13},"weightedTP":23.71,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","immunology","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.b2r_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.hereditary_angioedema","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":23,"totalTAM":8.405,"totalWTD":6.82486},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"deucrictibant","indication":"deuc_hae_prophylaxis","title":"REPORTED: CHAPTER-3 Ph3 ER tablet HAE prophylaxis POSITIVE Sep 8 2026 -- 83% mean monthly attack-rate reduction vs placebo (p<0.0001; 87% in HAE Type 1/2), all secondaries met, n=85 across 21 countries, 40mg QD XR; MAAs from H1 2027","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":32,"fail_apr":42,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://ir.pharvaris.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pharvaris-announces-positive-topline-data-chapter-3-pivotal","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.5900146,"successTP":25.7055672,"baseTP":23.7106766,"swingPct":38,"successMove":8,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2027-04-23","asset":"deucrictibant","indication":"deuc_hae_ondemand","title":"REPORTED: Deucrictibant NDA submitted + FDA ACCEPTED (Jul 2026); PDUFA Apr 23 2027, on-demand HAE (IR capsule 20mg)","type":"nda_submission","binary":true,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":72,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://ir.pharvaris.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pharvaris-announces-positive-topline-data-rapide-3-pivotal-study","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.0802094,"successTP":26.6088756,"baseTP":23.7106766,"swingPct":9,"successMove":2,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":32.31}},"PIERRE_FABRE":{"name":"Pierre Fabre Group","subtitle":"French foundation-owned pharma (86% Pierre Fabre Foundation, 14% employee-owned); Rx slice ~€1.33B of €3.1B group (43% pharma; 57% Avène consumer carved out)","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.skin.melanoma.braf_mut","oncology","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","dermatology.vascular_malformation.infantile_hemangioma","dermatology","dermatology.vascular_malformation","hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","hematology","hematology.transplant_complications","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","oncology.lymphoma.ptld","oncology.lymphoma"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.braf_mek","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.gpcr.beta_blocker","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.alkylating","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.vinca_alkaloid","_diversified.branded.france_branded","_diversified","_diversified.branded","biologic.antibody.mab.diversified_oncology","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.ebv_specific_t_cell","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":87},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":87},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":87},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptld","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.braf_mut","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.infantile_hemangioma","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":81},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.braf_mut","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.infantile_hemangioma","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptld","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ptld","purity":200},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.braf_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.infantile_hemangioma","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications.vod_hsct","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.transplant_complications","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.muc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":2,"optionality":50,"totalTAM":73.3139,"totalWTD":48.7795649},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":1330},"PLX":{"name":"Protalix BioTherapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Elfabrio (pegunigalsidase alfa) Fabry ERT FDA May 23 + EU E4W Mar 26 ($25M Chiesi ms Q1 26); FY25 $52.7M + FY26 guide $78-83M; PRX-115 PEG-uricase severe gout Ph1 | Plant-cell platform","currency":"USD","country":"IL","region":"MEA.IL","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":80.6,"netCashLocal":51,"cashPS":0.6328,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.82,"bear":2.25,"base":5.23,"bull":8.69,"psychedelic_bull":12.34},"weightedTP":5.59,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.pegylated_alpha_gal_a","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.pegylated_uricase"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":132},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":68},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":66},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":34}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":180},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":90},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":20},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":192},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":96},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":8},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":66,"rarePurityWtd":90,"optionality":36,"totalTAM":4.9585,"totalWTD":3.64342},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"elfabrio","indication":"elfab_fabry","title":"Elfabrio FDA E4W dosing discussion US -- SLIPPED: no US E4W submission/FDA interaction disclosed in Q2'26 results (Aug 12 2026); US label still 1 mg/kg E2W","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.140920772,"successTP":0.368941931,"baseTP":5.59318304,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-46,"failMove":-48,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-46,"daysOut":null,"materiality":48},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"prx115","indication":"prx115_gout","title":"PRX-115 RELEASE Ph2 topline severe/uncontrolled gout (vs Krystexxa) -- REPORTED 2026-06-29 audit: Ph2 RELEASE already enrolling (init resolved), topline now H2 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/protalix-biotherapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-and-business-results-302770790.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.25011156,"successTP":5.46875117,"baseTP":5.59318304,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":53,"lenses":{"comparable":8.04,"eeRel":3.2183,"peRel":1.9545}},"POLPHARMA":{"name":"Polpharma S.A.","subtitle":"Largest Polish pharma (Starak/Wieleżyński family-owned via Polpharma Holding); CEE generics + biosimilars (Polpharma Biologics partnered Sandoz: Tyruko first natalizumab biosimilar (EMA+FDA 2023;...","currency":"PLN","country":"PL","region":"EUROPE.OTHER","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","oncology.supportive_care.bone_metastases","oncology","oncology.supportive_care","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","_established_products","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_natalizumab","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.gcsf_pegylated_biosimilar","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.antibody.fragment.anti_vegf_biosimilar","biologic.antibody.fragment","_diversified.branded.cardiovascular_legacy","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.antibacterial.macrolide","small_molecule","small_molecule.antibacterial","_diversified.branded.cns_legacy","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_diversified"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":51},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.bone_metastases","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":23},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":17},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":52},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.bone_metastases","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":26},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":24},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":18},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":17},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":4},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":92.013,"totalWTD":90.1805625},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":5360},"PRAX":{"name":"Praxis Precision Medicines","subtitle":"2 NDAs filed (ulixa ET PDUFA Jan 29'27 + relut DEE PDUFA Dec 27'26, no AdComs) | Vormat POWER1 MISS Jun'26 -> POWER2 restart + POWER3 Q4'26 | Cash $1.4B runway 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":28,"netCashLocal":1400,"cashPS":50,"tps":{"mega_bear":53.35,"bear":102.03,"base":143.77,"bull":190.55,"psychedelic_bull":248.41},"weightedTP":145.59,"meta":{"areas":["cns.movement.essential_tremor","cns","cns.movement","cns.epilepsy.dee.scn2a_scn8a","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee","cns.epilepsy.dee.broad_spectrum","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy.generalized"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.nav_blocker","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.galnac","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":75},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":62},{"area":"cns.movement.essential_tremor","purity":50},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":31},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":25},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":25},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.broad_spectrum","purity":17},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.scn2a_scn8a","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.movement.essential_tremor","purity":109},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":55},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":45},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":38},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.scn2a_scn8a","purity":22},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.broad_spectrum","purity":15},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":13},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.movement.essential_tremor","purity":115},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":57},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":43},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":41},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.scn2a_scn8a","purity":24},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.broad_spectrum","purity":17},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":44,"rarePurityWtd":39,"optionality":168,"totalTAM":13.924,"totalWTD":5.19971925},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-02","asset":"vormat","indication":"fos","title":"REPORTED: Vormatrigine POWER1 Phase 3 FOS MISSED primary (% chg monthly seizure freq); POWER2 PAUSED. 50% responder rate hit + dose-response signal -- partial salvage possible at higher dose / narrower subgroup (fos assumptions already de-rated to miss)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":22,"success_apr":28,"_source":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/health-care/26/06/52931109/praxis-reassesses-vormatrigine-program-after-pivotal-epilepsy-study-misses-primary-endpoint","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"POWER1 missed primary endpoint of monthly FOS seizure frequency change. POWER2 enrollment paused. Secondary 50% responder rate achieved + dose-response signal at higher dose suggest a path forward but full FOS commercial opportunity severely impaired.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":144.906254,"successTP":145.872117,"baseTP":145.587387,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":27,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Dec 27, 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-27","asset":"relut","indication":"dee","title":"Relutrigine SCN2A/SCN8A DEE PDUFA (extended from Sep 27; Priority Review)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/29/3319308/0/en/Praxis-Precision-Medicines-Announces-Extension-Period-for-Relutrigine-for-Treatment-of-SCN2A-and-SCN8A-Developmental-and-Epileptic-Encephalopathies.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"FDA PDUFA extended 3 months to December 27, 2026 (from Sep 27) after Praxis submitted additional sensitivity analyses deemed a major amendment. Priority Review retained; no new studies or safety/manufacturing concerns cited.","failTP":122.226616,"successTP":153.344257,"baseTP":145.587387,"swingPct":21,"successMove":5,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"End of 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"relut","indication":"dee_broad","title":"Relutrigine EMERALD broad-DEE readout (gates genotype-agnostic label expansion)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.praxismedicines.com/news-releases/news-release-details/praxis-precision-medicines-announces-fda-acceptance-and-priority","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"EMERALD trial in broad DEEs expected to be completed by end of 2026","failTP":131.853851,"successTP":151.61625,"baseTP":145.587387,"swingPct":13,"successMove":4,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":132.09},"readouts":[{"a":"vormat","ind":"fos","ds":"2026-06-02","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":6.88560611,"lo":-4.0448562,"hi":35.0767814,"pBeatBest":0.0344,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33}]},"PRGO":{"name":"Perrigo Company plc","subtitle":"Pure consumer self-care company post-Rx divestiture 2021 | FY25 ~$4.1B CSCA Pain + Cough/Cold + Digestive + Pediatric + Skincare | Highest US OTC private-label volume","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":136,"netCashLocal":-3200,"cashPS":-23.5294,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.41,"bear":11.76,"base":28.24,"bull":54.12,"psychedelic_bull":103.53},"weightedTP":29.49,"meta":{"areas":["women_health.contraception.ocp","women_health","women_health.contraception","_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","_established_products","_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.progestin","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","purity":102},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":78},{"area":"women_health.contraception.ocp","purity":20},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","purity":102},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":78},{"area":"women_health.contraception.ocp","purity":20},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":10}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csca_otc","purity":116},{"area":"_established_products.perrigo_csci_otc","purity":80},{"area":"women_health.contraception.ocp","purity":3},{"area":"women_health.contraception","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":64.51,"totalWTD":64.51},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"csca_portfolio","indication":"csca_store_brand","title":"Perrigo Project Energize cost-out + margin expansion track update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.perrigo.com/investor-relations","_confidence":"high","failTP":29.4852941,"successTP":29.4852941,"baseTP":29.4852941,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"opill","indication":"contraception_otc","title":"Opill OTC contraception consumer adoption ramp + insurance-coverage advocacy update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.perrigo.com/investor-relations","_confidence":"medium","failTP":29.4852941,"successTP":29.4852941,"baseTP":29.4852941,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":4450,"lenses":{"comparable":78.7}},"PRME":{"name":"Prime Medicine","subtitle":"Prime editing: PM577 Wilson NZ-CTA cleared Jun'26 (Ph1/2 2H'26); PM647 AATD IND Q3'26 (Beam arbitration WON Jul'26); PM359 CGD NEJM Dec'25 (BLA dialogue); CF in vivo (CFF); cash $149M to 2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":180.62,"netCashLocal":149.2,"cashPS":0.826,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.6,"bear":0.77,"base":1.31,"bull":2.06,"psychedelic_bull":2.97},"weightedTP":1.26,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.cellular_rare","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.prime_editor.invivo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.prime_editor","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.prime_editor.exvivo"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":89},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":44},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":41},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.cellular_rare","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":35},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":20}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":79},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.cellular_rare","purity":44},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":44},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":44},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":39},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":33},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":17}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":161},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":81},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":31},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.cellular_rare","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":4}],"phase":"phase1","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":65,"rarePurityWtd":56,"optionality":196,"totalTAM":10.634,"totalWTD":3.593784},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"pm577","indication":"pm577_wilson","title":"REPORTED: PM577 Wilson Disease IND/CTA filing COMPLETED -- New Zealand CTA cleared Jun 2026; Ph1/2 dosing 2H 2026","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Achieved/exceeded: New Zealand Medsafe cleared the CTA for PM577a (in vivo Prime Editing therapy targeting ATP7B H1069Q) on 2026-06-18 -- Prime's first clinical clearance for an in vivo Prime Editing therapy, enabling a global Phase 1/2 study. Phase 1/2 start guided 2H 2026; initial data expected 2027.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/18/3314111/0/en/prime-medicine-announces-new-zealand-clearance-of-clinical-trial-application-for-pm577a-in-h1069q-mutated-wilson-disease.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.19053794,"successTP":1.3257707,"baseTP":1.25946603,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"pm647","indication":"pm647_aatd","title":"PM647 AATD IND/CTA filing target","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":42,"fail_apr":52,"success_pos":52,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases/news-release-details/prime-medicine-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and","_confidence":"high","_note":"PM647 (prime editing, AATD) IND/CTA still guided Q3 2026, not filed as of Aug 12; initial clinical data 2027. Jul'26 arbitration win vs Beam cleared the legal path. Rolled to Q3'26.","failTP":0.936721582,"successTP":1.63973513,"baseTP":1.25946603,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"pm577","indication":"pm577_wilson","title":"PM577 Wilson Disease + PM647 AATD initial clinical data (FIH efficacy/safety)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://investors.primemedicine.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.15416494,"successTP":1.34653432,"baseTP":1.25946603,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.69}},"PRTA":{"name":"Prothena Corporation plc","subtitle":"Post-birtamimab fail (Jun'25); ATTR sold to Novo $1.2B (coramitug Ph3 2029); prasinezumab Roche PD; BMS-986446 Alz + PRX019 BMS opt-in YE'26 ($55M); cash $289.1M, YE26 ~$259M","currency":"USD","country":"IE","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":52.35,"netCashLocal":289.1,"cashPS":5.5224,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.27,"bear":5.5,"base":5.76,"bull":6.23,"psychedelic_bull":6.71},"weightedTP":5.8,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.attr","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ttr","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.alpha_synuclein","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tau"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":91},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":62},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":55},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":48},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":45}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":139},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":69},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":45},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":31},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":17}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr.cm","purity":148},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.attr","purity":74},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":40},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":26},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":13}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":227,"totalTAM":25.1,"totalWTD":7.66952},"catalysts":[{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bms986446","indication":"bms_alz","title":"BMS opt-in decision on PRX019 (Ph1 complete; $55M milestone if BMS advances)","type":"milestone","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PRTA/prothena-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-business-wg7r8frl8abf.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.76364808,"successTP":5.85404494,"baseTP":5.79765833,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":11,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"prasinezumab","indication":"pras_pd","title":"Prasinezumab Roche PADOVA Ph2b Parkinson's topline (disease-modification primary)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.prothena.com/clinical-trials/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.71984161,"successTP":5.8929847,"baseTP":5.79765833,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"bms986446","indication":"bms_alz","title":"BMS-986446 Alzheimer's Ph1/2 interim (anti-tau mAb)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/prothena-partners-present-data-supporting-next-generation-treatments-for-parkinsons-and-alzheimers-disease-at-ad-pd-2026","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.765527,"successTP":5.85404494,"baseTP":5.79765833,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":27,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"coramitug","indication":"cor_attr_cm","title":"Coramitug ATTR-CM CLEOPATTRA Ph3 interim (Novo Nordisk n=1280; full primary 2029)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260427325583/en/Prothena-Announces-Novo-Nordisk-Obtains-Fast-Track-Designation-from-the-U.S.-FDA-for-Coramitug-PRX004-in-ATTR-Amyloidosis-with-Cardiomyopathy","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.60184361,"successTP":5.94457865,"baseTP":5.79765833,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5.83},"readouts":[{"a":"bms986446","ind":"bms_alz","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":6.20623892,"lo":-9.57081117,"hi":37.640963,"pBeatBest":0.09925,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27}]},"PTCT":{"name":"PTC Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Rare-disease specialty + Novartis HD deal | FY25 $1.73B incl $1.0B Novartis upfront | Translarna DMD + Upstaza AADC + Sephience (sepiapterin) PKU US/EU Q3 2025 + Vatiquinone Friedreich's Ph3 2026","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":83,"netCashLocal":2118.1,"cashPS":25.5193,"tps":{"mega_bear":45.15,"bear":60.56,"base":84.31,"bull":121.48,"psychedelic_bull":190.2},"weightedTP":88.2,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.nonsense","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.corticosteroid","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","cns.neurodevelopmental.aadc_deficiency","cns","cns.neurodevelopmental","_established_products.ptct_heritage","_established_products","cns.neurodegeneration.huntington","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage"],"modalities":["small_molecule.rna_modulator.readthrough","small_molecule","small_molecule.rna_modulator","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.corticosteroid_gc","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.rna_modulator.splice_mixed","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement.bh4_precursor","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav2_aadc","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.various","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","small_molecule.enzyme.lipoxygenase_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.gla_systemic"],"focus":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":52},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":51},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":32},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":29},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":27},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":26},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":23},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.huntington","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":16},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.aadc_deficiency","purity":11},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.nonsense","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.corticosteroid","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.ptct_heritage","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":66},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":65},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":37},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":33},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":28},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.huntington","purity":15},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.aadc_deficiency","purity":14},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":14},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":9},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":7},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.corticosteroid","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.nonsense","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.ptct_heritage","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.huntington","purity":71},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":37},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":37},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.pku","purity":36},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":36},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.nonsense","purity":24},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":18},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.corticosteroid","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":13},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.aadc_deficiency","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":6},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.ptct_heritage","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.friedreich","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":81,"rarePurityWtd":92,"optionality":28,"totalTAM":20.431402,"totalWTD":15.953785},"catalysts":[{"date":"2H 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"ptc518","indication":"hd_votoplam","title":"Votoplam (PTC518) FDA engagement on PIVOT-HD 24-month data (2H 2026); Novartis INVEST-HD Ph3 started Apr 2026 ($50M milestone to PTC) (Q2 PR)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Novartis Dec 2024 deal","_confidence":"medium","failTP":83.7892746,"successTP":96.8705827,"baseTP":88.2041516,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"st920","indication":"fabry_st920","title":"ST-920 rolling BLA submission complete (accelerated approval, Fabry)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":78,"_source":"PTC PR 2026-09-21","_confidence":"high","failTP":87.5122702,"successTP":88.7646574,"baseTP":88.2041516,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"sephience","indication":"pku","title":"Sephience PKU US/EU launch trajectory + label expansions","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"PTC FY25 IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":88.2041516,"successTP":88.2041516,"baseTP":88.2041516,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"st920","indication":"fabry_st920","title":"ST-920 FDA accelerated-approval decision (Fabry; ~8-10 months after BLA completion)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":97,"success_apr":100,"_source":"PTC PR 2026-09-21 (timing estimated)","_confidence":"medium","failTP":86.9506709,"successTP":89.0993021,"baseTP":88.2041516,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":821,"sanity":{"flags":["share_severe"],"maxShare":{"pct":87,"ceilPct":50,"position":"unpositioned","asset":"translarna","ind":"nmdmd","area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.nonsense","somB":0.3,"tamB":0.3}},"lenses":{"comparable":65.6,"eeRel":0.5519}},"PTGX":{"name":"Protagonist Therapeutics","subtitle":"ICOTYDE oral IL-23R psoriasis APPROVED Mar'26 (J&J 6-10% royalty); rusfertide PV PDUFA Aug'26 (Takeda 14-29% royalty after $200M opt-out); PN-881 IL-17 + PN-477 obesity; cash $620M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":64.71,"netCashLocal":1124.5,"cashPS":17.3775,"tps":{"mega_bear":51.6,"bear":65.54,"base":87.24,"bull":117.88,"psychedelic_bull":160.24},"weightedTP":95.05,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["peptide.receptor_blocker.il23r_oral","peptide","peptide.receptor_blocker","peptide.hormone_analog.hepcidin_mimetic","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.receptor_blocker.il17_oral","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip_glucagon","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":137},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":68},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":29},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":29},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":65},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":60},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":60},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":60},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":55},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":54},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":18}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":221,"totalTAM":210.78,"totalWTD":65.607},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 28, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-28","asset":"rusfertide","indication":"rusfertide_pv","title":"REPORTED: Rusfertide FDA APPROVED Aug 28 2026 as MIMRYLO for erythrocytosis in adults with polycythemia vera (Takeda commercial; PTGX royalty + approval milestone)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/PTGX/8-k-protagonist-therapeutics-inc-reports-material-event-c5ba0680c86f.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":81.3453835,"successTP":99.4366418,"baseTP":95.0455049,"swingPct":19,"successMove":5,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"pn477","indication":"pn477_obesity","title":"PN-477sc Phase 1 obesity initial dosing data (triple GLP/GIP/GCG)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PTGX/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":82.9630748,"successTP":100.018805,"baseTP":95.0455049,"swingPct":13,"successMove":4,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":33,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"pn881","indication":"pn881_pso","title":"PN-881 oral IL-17: Ph1 PK positive (Q2 PR Aug 5 2026); Ph2b psoriasis initiation SLIPPED to early Q1 2027","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PTGX/","_confidence":"high","failTP":84.3864869,"successTP":98.8870322,"baseTP":95.0455049,"swingPct":5,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"icotyde","indication":"icotyde_pso","title":"ICOTYDE psoriasis full-year 2026 launch metrics (PTGX 6-10% royalty visibility)","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":95,"fail_apr":95,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/PTGX/8-k-protagonist-therapeutics-inc-reports-material-event-c5ba0680c86f.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":84.674864,"successTP":101.845038,"baseTP":95.0455049,"swingPct":15,"successMove":6,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":135.86,"eeRel":0.1725,"peRel":0.4691},"readouts":[{"a":"pn477","ind":"pn477_obesity","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.2045005,"lo":2.74390438,"hi":29.5216809,"pBeatBest":0.13495,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"PVLA":{"name":"Palvella Therapeutics","subtitle":"QTORIN rapamycin gel: SELVA Ph3 POSITIVE Feb'26 (mLM); NDA rolling review Jun'26, approval H1'27; TOIVA Ph2 venous POSITIVE Dec'25 + LOTU angiokeratomas; cash $261.9M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":14.3,"netCashLocal":261.9,"cashPS":18.3147,"tps":{"mega_bear":27.48,"bear":47.26,"base":69.73,"bull":86.53,"psychedelic_bull":102.28},"weightedTP":68.47,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.vascular_malformation.lymphatic_microcystic","dermatology","dermatology.vascular_malformation","dermatology.vascular_malformation.venous_cutaneous","dermatology.vascular_malformation.angiokeratoma"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.mtor","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.lymphatic_microcystic","purity":106},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.venous_cutaneous","purity":58},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.angiokeratoma","purity":36}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.lymphatic_microcystic","purity":151},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.venous_cutaneous","purity":39},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.angiokeratoma","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.lymphatic_microcystic","purity":170},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":100},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.venous_cutaneous","purity":25},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.angiokeratoma","purity":5}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":64,"totalTAM":5.167,"totalWTD":3.1544436},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"qtorin","indication":"qtorin_mlm","title":"QTORIN rapamycin mLM NDA -- FDA rolling review GRANTED Jun 22'26; first module submitted Jun 29'26; full submission H2'26","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://ir.palvellatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/palvella-therapeutics-announces-positive-topline-results-phase-3","_confidence":"high","failTP":52.4798252,"successTP":80.1198892,"baseTP":68.4664267,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-31","asset":"qtorin","indication":"qtorin_mlm","title":"QTORIN rapamycin FDA approval (first-in-disease mLM)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":96,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://ir.palvellatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/palvella-therapeutics-announces-positive-topline-results-phase-3","_confidence":"high","failTP":39.413068,"successTP":81.5713937,"baseTP":68.4664267,"swingPct":61,"successMove":19,"failMove":-42,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":69},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"qtorin","indication":"qtorin_ak","title":"QTORIN LOTU Ph2 angiokeratomas topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://ir.palvellatx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":66.7094567,"successTP":71.2000509,"baseTP":68.4664267,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":88.01}},"QTTB":{"name":"Q32 Bio","subtitle":"Micro-cap single-asset: Bempikibart anti-IL-7Rα BTD SIGNAL-AA Ph2a Part B WIN Jul'26 (SALT -35%, SALT-20 40%); Ph3 H1'27; SIGNAL-AD MISS; ADX-097 sold Akebia","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":35.88,"netCashLocal":280,"cashPS":7.8038,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.73,"bear":12.86,"base":19.62,"bull":28.53,"psychedelic_bull":37.24},"weightedTP":18.3,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il7r","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.complement_c3b"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":78},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":67},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":44},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":44},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":44},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":22}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":132},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":70},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":61},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":30},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":163},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":82},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":36},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":18},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":228,"totalTAM":30.998,"totalWTD":9.461908},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-15","asset":"bempikibart","indication":"bemp_aa","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-13: Bempikibart SIGNAL-AA Ph2a Part B 36-week topline WIN -- primary met, mean SALT reduction 35.3%, SALT-20 40% (mITT), SALT-50 44%; no Gr>=3 AEs; single-arm/uncontrolled; advancing to registration-directed Ph3 H1'27 (stock +72% on print)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/q32-bio-announces-positive-36-week-topline-results-from-part-b-of-the-signal-aa-clinical-trial-of-bempikibart-in-alopecia-areata-302823403.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":9.73698804,"successTP":23.0163158,"baseTP":18.2974227,"swingPct":73,"successMove":26,"failMove":-47,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":40},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"adx097_royalty","indication":"adx097_iga","title":"ADX-097 Akebia milestone ($2M near-term; up to $592M total) + Ph2 progression","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":62,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AKBA/q32-bio-sells-complement-inhibitor-adx-uwcmdghk82gd.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.2558908,"successTP":22.95341,"baseTP":18.2974227,"swingPct":14,"successMove":8,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bempikibart","indication":"bemp_aa","title":"Bempikibart END-OF-PHASE-2 FDA meeting -- design alignment for the single registration-directed Ph3 in alopecia areata (company guides EoP2 by end-2026, Ph3 start H1 2027)","type":"regulatory","fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":84,"failTP":13.2943569,"successTP":23.5404024,"baseTP":18.2974227,"swingPct":28,"successMove":15,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"bempikibart","indication":"bemp_aa","title":"Bempikibart AA Ph3 pivotal trial initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://ir.q32bio.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.1925379,"successTP":22.7658848,"baseTP":18.2974227,"swingPct":17,"successMove":7,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":20.2,"eeRel":1.9236,"peRel":11.5064}},"QURE":{"name":"uniQure N.V.","subtitle":"AMT-130 HD gene tx: BLA filed Sep 2'26 (accel.) on 3-yr data; 4-yr cUHDRS slowing fell to 44% (p=0.14) Sep 29'26, stock -41%; cash $810M Q2; AMT-260 TLE, AMT-191 Fabry","currency":"USD","country":"NL","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":69.89,"netCashLocal":759.8,"cashPS":10.8714,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.44,"bear":13.65,"base":29.07,"bull":53.84,"psychedelic_bull":88.01},"weightedTP":30.55,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodegeneration.huntington","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","hematology","hematology.hemostasis"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav5_htt_mirna","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav5_gla","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_npy_epilepsy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav5_fix"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":68},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":51},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":50},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":34},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.huntington","purity":31},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":26},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":25},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":15}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":112},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":56},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":49},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":26},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":25},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":13},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.huntington","purity":12},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.huntington","purity":177},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":89},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_b","purity":23},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":11},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":0},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":51,"rarePurityWtd":81,"optionality":122,"totalTAM":12.809,"totalWTD":5.75806562},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-19","asset":"amt_260","indication":"amt260_tle","title":"REPORTED: AMT-260 Ph1/2a low-dose cohort (n=6) 6-mo data Jun 19 2026 -- MIXED/encouraging: 3/6 pts 79-100% disabling-seizure reduction, 3/6 variable (-33% to +36%); well tolerated, no SAEs, no immunosuppression; high-dose cohort enrolling, updated data H1 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/19/3314701/0/en/uniqure-announces-preliminary-data-on-the-first-cohort-in-the-phase-i-iia-clinical-trial-of-amt-260-in-refractory-mesial-temporal-lobe-epilepsy.html","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"First-cohort low-dose data reported early (Jun 19 2026, Epilepsy Pipeline Conference), not Nov 2026 as originally dated. Mixed low-dose POC -- kept assumptions unchanged (narrative-only) pending therapeutic high-dose readout H1 2027","_outcome":"partial","_resolvedDate":"2026-06-19","failTP":19.4074121,"successTP":41.1931845,"baseTP":30.5511868,"swingPct":71,"successMove":35,"failMove":-36,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"amt_130","indication":"amt130_hd","title":"RESOLVED Jun'26 FDA Type B: 3-yr analysis acceptable as primary basis for AMT-130 BLA accelerated approval; BLA submission Q3'26 (confirmatory study design to align pre-BLA)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_outcome":"success","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/17/3313322/0/en/uniqure-announces-plan-for-bla-submission-for-amt-130-in-huntington-s-disease.html","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"RESOLVED POSITIVE Jun 17 2026: at recent Type B meeting FDA communicated 3-year analysis acceptable as primary basis for a BLA for accelerated approval (reversing Jan'26 stance that demanded prospective randomized sham-control Ph3). uniQure intends to submit BLA Q3 2026; FDA seeks alignment on confirmatory study design (concurrent SoC control vs sham) pre-submission. Base pos/apr moved 60->68 / 70->78 toward declared success (capped +8) -- partial since confirmatory-study design + actual BLA acceptance still ahead.","failTP":28.7092318,"successTP":35.1126579,"baseTP":30.5511868,"swingPct":11,"successMove":8,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-02","asset":"amt_130","indication":"amt130_hd","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-02: AMT-130 (ifezuntirgene inilparvovec) BLA SUBMITTED to FDA for accelerated approval with priority review requested, and MAA submitted to UK MHRA -- both on the guided Q3'26 timeline","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/02/en/uniqure-announces-submission-of-biologics-license-application-for-ifezuntirgene-inilparvovec-amt-130-in-huntingtons-disease.html","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Sep 2 2026 company PR: BLA submitted to FDA for accelerated approval of AMT-130 in Huntington's, supported by the 3-year Ph1/2 data; priority review requested (would cut the review to 6 months after the 60-day filing review). UK MHRA MAA submitted the same day. Execution milestone on the pre-declared timeline -- no new efficacy data, so assumptions unchanged (tier-3 narrative-only); the next binary is FDA filing acceptance + the priority-review decision.","_outcome":"success","failTP":29.2297872,"successTP":35.1126579,"baseTP":30.5511868,"swingPct":10,"successMove":8,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Sep 29 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-09-29","asset":"amt_130","indication":"amt130_hd","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-29: AMT-130 Ph1/2 48-month analysis -- cUHDRS slowing 44% vs Enroll-HD (p=0.144 nominal), down from 75% at 36 mo; TFC 61% (p=0.008); NfL near baseline; >half of external-control data missing","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"fail","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","_note":"SURPRISE (no pre-declared catalyst) -- bounded move only: amt130_hd pos cut 7-13 pts per scenario (base 48.8->36). Recommended full value pending review: base pos ~30 / apr ~60 given the primary-type endpoint lost significance and FDA may require reanalysis of the 3-yr-based BLA. 2026-09-30 user-directed: full value APPLIED (base pos 30 / apr 60; ladder 8/30, 16/45, 30/60, 42/75, 55/88).","_source":"uniQure 8-K 2026-09-29 Ex 99.1 + Fierce Biotech 2026-09-29","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1590560/000110465926111654/tm2626514d1_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":29.3353156,"successTP":33.511255,"baseTP":30.5511868,"swingPct":14,"successMove":10,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"amt_130","indication":"amt130_hd","title":"FDA BLA filing acceptance + priority-review decision for AMT-130 (60-day review of the Sep 2'26 submission) -- now also whether FDA requires reanalysis on the weaker 48-month data","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/02/en/uniqure-announces-submission-of-biologics-license-application-for-ifezuntirgene-inilparvovec-amt-130-in-huntingtons-disease.html","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"BLA submitted Sep 2 2026 with a priority-review request; FDA's 60-day filing review lands ~Nov 2026. Acceptance + priority review would set a PDUFA ~6 months later (mid-2027); refuse-to-file or standard review pushes the US launch out a further ~6 months.","failTP":28.9450211,"successTP":35.2659621,"baseTP":30.5511868,"swingPct":10,"successMove":8,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"amt_191","indication":"amt191_fabry","title":"AMT-191 Fabry Ph1/2a long-term durability update (alpha-Gal A activity + Lyso-Gb3 trends, ERT-discontinuation cohort)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://uniqure.gcs-web.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Long-term durability data from Ph1/2a cohort (6 of 11 pts off ERT as of Jan'26 cutoff; dosing paused in mid/high after 2 G3 ALT/AST DLTs). Resumption of dosing + durability/safety read informs pivotal Ph3 design.","failTP":19.6187348,"successTP":41.5169256,"baseTP":30.5511868,"swingPct":72,"successMove":36,"failMove":-36,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-31","asset":"amt_260","indication":"amt260_tle","title":"AMT-260 Ph1/2a updated data incl. high-dose cohort (3x10^12 gc/mL) -- refractory mesial TLE","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/19/3314701/0/en/uniqure-announces-preliminary-data-on-the-first-cohort-in-the-phase-i-iia-clinical-trial-of-amt-260-in-refractory-mesial-temporal-lobe-epilepsy.html","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"High-dose cohort (3x10^12) enrolling with completion mid-2026; updated therapeutic-dose data expected H1 2027 -- the true de-risking readout for AMT-260","failTP":19.4074121,"successTP":41.1931845,"baseTP":30.5511868,"swingPct":71,"successMove":35,"failMove":-36,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-31","asset":"amt_130","indication":"amt130_hd","title":"FDA PDUFA action on AMT-130 accelerated approval (timing conditional on the priority-review grant)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/02/en/uniqure-announces-submission-of-biologics-license-application-for-ifezuntirgene-inilparvovec-amt-130-in-huntingtons-disease.html","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"If priority review is granted on the Sep 2'26 BLA, action lands ~6 months after the 60-day filing review, i.e. around mid-2027; standard review pushes it to late 2027/early 2028. First potential disease-modifying approval in Huntington's.","failTP":28.566418,"successTP":36.57077,"baseTP":30.5511868,"swingPct":26,"successMove":20,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":15.9,"lenses":{"comparable":50.34},"readouts":[{"a":"amt_260","ind":"amt260_tle","ds":"2026-06-19","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":14.7858164,"lo":-4.36346717,"hi":40.3680681,"pBeatBest":0.09285,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33},{"a":"amt_260","ind":"amt260_tle","ds":"2027-05-31","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":14.7026153,"lo":-4.18655151,"hi":40.6967607,"pBeatBest":0.09195,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33}]},"RAPP":{"name":"Rapport Therapeutics","subtitle":"RAP-219 TARP-γ8 selective AMPAR NAM: Ph2a focal seizures POSITIVE -- 90% median reduction Wk9-12 + 59% Wk13-16; Ph3 accelerated start; bipolar Ph2 data Q4'26; cash $476.8M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":51,"netCashLocal":476.8,"cashPS":9.349,"tps":{"mega_bear":9.16,"bear":11.6,"base":19.73,"bull":25.05,"psychedelic_bull":30.25},"weightedTP":19.54,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.focal","cns","cns.epilepsy","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.psychiatry"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.tarp_g8_ampar_nam","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":137},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":68},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":63},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":32}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":106},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":94},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":53},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":47}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":173},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":87},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":27},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":13}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":253,"totalTAM":13.72,"totalWTD":3.8910032},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"rap219","indication":"rap219_bipolar","title":"RAP-219 Ph2 bipolar disorder topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/RAPP/rapport-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financials-and-ui1eejx0b11f.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.5504881,"successTP":42.4679224,"baseTP":19.5419665,"swingPct":148,"successMove":117,"failMove":-31,"yourPoS":34,"expectedReturn":19,"daysOut":null,"materiality":48}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":19.8}},"RARE":{"name":"Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc.","subtitle":"Rare disease -- FY25 $673M: Crysvita $481M + Dojolvi $96M + Evkeeza $59M; GENGLYCOS (DTX401) APPROVED Aug'26 (1st GSD-Ia); FAYUVI (UX111) approved Sep'26; GTX-102 Angelman Ph3 FAILED Sep'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":98.5,"netCashLocal":-764,"cashPS":-7.7563,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":4.92,"base":26.32,"bull":42.83,"psychedelic_bull":62.93},"weightedTP":27.75,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.calcium.xlh","endocrine","endocrine.calcium","metabolic_genetic.fatty_acid_oxidation.lcfaod","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.fatty_acid_oxidation","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","cns.neurodevelopmental.angelman","cns","cns.neurodevelopmental","metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage.gsd_1a","metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage","metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.otc","metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteogenesis_imperfecta","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_fgf23","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement.mct_triheptanoin","small_molecule","small_molecule.metabolite_replacement","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_sgsh","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.ube3a","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav8_g6pc","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav8_otc","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_atp7b","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_sclerostin"],"focus":[{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":46},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.otc","purity":37},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteogenesis_imperfecta","purity":30},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.angelman","purity":26},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":26},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":23},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":16},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":15},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage.gsd_1a","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":8},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.fatty_acid_oxidation.lcfaod","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.fatty_acid_oxidation","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":74},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.otc","purity":38},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":37},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":27},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":23},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage.gsd_1a","purity":21},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":12},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.fatty_acid_oxidation.lcfaod","purity":10},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.angelman","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.fatty_acid_oxidation","purity":5},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteogenesis_imperfecta","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.calcium.xlh","purity":73},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":38},{"area":"endocrine.calcium","purity":37},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.otc","purity":27},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism.wilson","purity":21},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.fatty_acid_oxidation.lcfaod","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":19},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage.gsd_1a","purity":16},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":13},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.metal_metabolism","purity":10},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.fatty_acid_oxidation","purity":9},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.angelman","purity":8},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.glycogen_storage","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteogenesis_imperfecta","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":61,"totalTAM":36.091,"totalWTD":22.4290912},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-12-29","dateSort":"2025-12-29","asset":"ux143","indication":"ux143_oi","title":"RESOLVED 2025-12-29: UX143 setrusumab Phase 3 Orbit FAILED -- did not meet primary endpoints in osteogenesis imperfecta; major pipeline miss; Mereo BioPharma + RARE collaboration","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"_source":"Mereo + RARE Dec 29 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-29 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":27.7526936,"successTP":27.7526936,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-02-12","dateSort":"2026-02-12","asset":"crysvita","indication":"crys_xlh","title":"REPORTED: FY25 results -- total revenue $673M (+20%); Crysvita $481M (+17%; LatAm/TR $177M +31%); Dojolvi $96M (+9%); Evkeeza $59M (+84%); Mepsevii $37M; 10% workforce cut + restructure","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"RARE FY25 PR Feb 12 2026 + StockTitan","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-02-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":27.7526936,"successTP":27.7526936,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-04-15","dateSort":"2026-04-15","asset":"ux111","indication":"ux111_mpsiii","title":"REPORTED: UX111 BLA accepted (resubmitted post-IRL CMC) by FDA Apr 2026 with 8-year follow-up data presented WORLDSymposium Feb 2026; PDUFA Sep 19 2026","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_source":"RARE Q1'26 PR May 6 2026 + WORLDSymposium 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-04-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":21.815407,"successTP":25.5061329,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"2026-05-06","dateSort":"2026-05-06","asset":"crysvita","indication":"crys_xlh","title":"REPORTED: Q1 2026 results -- $136M revenue (+25% YoY); FY26 $730-760M guidance reaffirmed; Crysvita + Dojolvi commercial trajectory on track","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"RARE Q1 2026 PR May 6 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-06 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":27.7526936,"successTP":27.7526936,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"August 5, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"crysvita","indication":"crys_xlh","title":"REPORTED: Q2 2026 results -- record $214M total revenue (Crysvita $156M, Dojolvi $27M); FY26 guidance reaffirmed $730-760M; DTX401 PDUFA Aug 23 and UX111 PDUFA Sep 19 both confirmed on track; profitability targeted 2027","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.ultragenyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ultragenyx-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and","_confidence":"high","failTP":27.7526936,"successTP":27.7526936,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 19 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-19","asset":"dtx401","indication":"dtx401_gsd1a","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED 2026-08-19 -- DTX401 APPROVED (accelerated) as GENGLYCOS for GSD-Ia age 8+, 4 days ahead of the Aug 23 PDUFA; first-ever therapy targeting the underlying cause of GSDIa","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Ultragenyx IR PR 2026-08-19 + 8-K (SEC 0001193125-26-357185)","_confidence":"high","failTP":25.9945183,"successTP":28.6081217,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":9,"successMove":3,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Sep 2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-02","asset":"gtx102","indication":"gtx_angel","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-02 (MISS): GTX-102 Aspire Ph3 FAILED -- missed primary (Bayley-4 cognition) + key secondary (MDRI), no separation on any MDRI component; program under evaluation, expense cuts","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":90,"_source":"RARE Aspire enrollment completion + ainvest","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526380165/rare-20260902.htm","_note":"2026-10-09 freshness: resolved to pre-declared fail 30/60 (base). A clean miss with no signal arguably warrants ~5/10 (UX143 precedent) -- flagged for manual finalization.","failTP":26.7549174,"successTP":34.053183,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":27,"successMove":23,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Sep 17 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-17","asset":"ux111","indication":"ux111_mpsiii","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-17: UX111 APPROVED as FAYUVI (rebisufligene etisparvovec-hopf) -- FDA standard full approval for pediatric MPS IIIA, first-ever Sanfilippo Type A therapy, 2 days ahead of the Sep 19 PDUFA; Priority Review Voucher received","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Ultragenyx PR Sep 17 2026 (ir.ultragenyx.com / GlobeNewswire) + 8-K rare-20260917","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":23.8535016,"successTP":29.6997493,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":21,"successMove":7,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"ux701","indication":"ux701_wilson","title":"UX701 Cyprus2+ dose-finding Wilson disease data expected (AAV9 ATP7B gene therapy) -- slipped: now guided Q4 2026 (Q2-26 PR)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"RARE pipeline + Q1'26 PR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":24.0222733,"successTP":26.3311025,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"dtx301","indication":"dtx301_otc","title":"DTX301 Phase 3 second primary endpoint readout (reduction in treatment burden in OTC deficiency; Week 36 met)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":88,"_source":"RARE pipeline + ainvest","_confidence":"medium","failTP":24.4529244,"successTP":29.4123313,"baseTP":27.7526936,"swingPct":18,"successMove":6,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":577,"lenses":{"comparable":117.09}},"RCE":{"name":"Recce Pharmaceuticals Ltd","subtitle":"Synthetic anti-infective polymers: RECCE 327 gel Ph3 diabetic-foot-infection (interim H2'26) + Ph3 ABSSSI; R327 IV sepsis + R435 oral (early); ASEAN launch '26; A$30M Avenue facility; MCap ~A$139M","currency":"AUD","country":"AU","region":"OCEANIA","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":289.18,"netCashLocal":5.71,"cashPS":0.0197,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0,"bull":0,"psychedelic_bull":0.11},"weightedTP":0.01,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.bacterial.skin_soft_tissue","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antibacterial.synthetic_polymer","small_molecule","small_molecule.antibacterial"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":89},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.skin_soft_tissue","purity":56},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":55}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.skin_soft_tissue","purity":118},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":62},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":21}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.skin_soft_tissue","purity":179},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.bacteremia","purity":20},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":520,"totalTAM":5.606,"totalWTD":0.903968},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"r327g","indication":"r327g_dfi","title":"RECCE 327 gel Ph3 DFI interim analysis (~155 pts, Indonesia; slipped from Q1'26)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1079112/recce-advances-phase-3-diabetic-foot-infection-trial-in-indonesia-with-first-patient-dosing-1079112.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":0.0265334887,"baseTP":0.00875622817,"swingPct":303,"successMove":203,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":82,"daysOut":null,"materiality":100},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"r327g","indication":"r327g_absssi","title":"RECCE 327 gel registrational Ph3 ABSSSI (Australia) progress/data","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/recce-pharmaceuticals-reports-positive-data-from-phase-ii-trial-of-recce-327-gel-in-acute-bacterial-skin-and-skin-structure-infections-supporting-accelerated-commercialization-pathway","_confidence":"low","failTP":0,"successTP":0.0265334887,"baseTP":0.00875622817,"swingPct":303,"successMove":203,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":52,"daysOut":null,"materiality":100},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"r327g","indication":"r327g_dfi","title":"RECCE 327 gel Ph3 DFI topline + ASEAN registration progress","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/1081611/recce-progresses-phase-3-clinical-trial-and-expands-global-recognition-in-september-quarter-1081611.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":0.0265334887,"baseTP":0.00875622817,"swingPct":303,"successMove":203,"failMove":-100,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":82,"daysOut":null,"materiality":100}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0}},"RCKT":{"name":"Rocket Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"KRESLADI FDA accelerated approval severe LAD-I ($180M PRV sold; first patients onboarding Q4'26); RP-A501 Danon pivotal Ph2 -- 3 initial pts cleared safety window, no TMA; cash $283.7M into Q2'28","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":109.12,"netCashLocal":283.7,"cashPS":2.5999,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.5,"bear":1.95,"base":3.08,"bull":4.04,"psychedelic_bull":4.89},"weightedTP":2.8,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.cellular_rare","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.danon","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.lentivirus.cd18_hsc","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.lentivirus","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_lamp2b","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.danon","purity":77},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.cellular_rare","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":61},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":39}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.cellular_rare","purity":70},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":70},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":70},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.danon","purity":60},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":30}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.danon","purity":194},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.cellular_rare","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":14,"totalTAM":6.118,"totalWTD":5.36088},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 15 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"rpa501","indication":"rpa501_danon","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-15 (HIT): RP-A501 FDA ALIGNMENT on path to complete pivotal Ph2 Danon -- continued enrollment/dosing + key design agreed; n=12 (first 3 count, 9 remain) at 3.8e13 GC/kg commercial-grade; co-primaries LAMP2 + >=10% LVMI drop at 12 mo (accelerated-approval path)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.rocketpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-pharmaceuticals-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial/","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/rocket-pharmaceuticals-announces-fda-alignment-on-path-to-complete-pivotal-phase-2-trial-of-rp-a501-in-danon-disease","failTP":1.70459753,"successTP":3.54623277,"baseTP":2.79660644,"swingPct":33,"successMove":14,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"Mid 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"rpa501","indication":"rpa501_danon","title":"RP-A501 Ph2 pivotal Danon disease topline -- SLIPPED from mid-2027 to mid-2028 per 8-K Oct 6 2026 (dosing completes mid-2027; BLA late 2028)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.rocketpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-pharmaceuticals-provides-update-phase-2-clinical-trial-rp/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.70459753,"successTP":3.54623277,"baseTP":2.79660644,"swingPct":66,"successMove":27,"failMove":-39,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":46}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":5.7}},"RCUS":{"name":"Arcus Biosciences","subtitle":"Pivot to casdatifan HIF-2a ccRCC backbone (post STAR-121 NSCLC futility); quemliclustat PRISM-1 PDAC Ph3 data H1'27; zimberelimab+chemo positive vs pembro; cash $775M (Q2'26) to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":127.33,"netCashLocal":675,"cashPS":5.3012,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.66,"bear":5.53,"base":7.33,"bull":10.1,"psychedelic_bull":13.65},"weightedTP":7.57,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transcription_factor.hif2a","small_molecule","small_molecule.transcription_factor","small_molecule.enzyme.cd73","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":53},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":157},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":134},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":962,"totalTAM":46.37,"totalWTD":4.3668124},"catalysts":[{"date":"Oct 20, 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-20","asset":"casdatifan","indication":"casda_rcc","title":"Casdatifan ARC-20 multi-line ccRCC data at Oct 20 2026 investor event (200+ pts: 1L casda+zimberelimab initial efficacy, 2L casda+cabo PFS, late-line mono OS) -- PEAK-1 Ph3 supportive","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001724521/000172452126000042/a2026q28kexhibit991.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.61241139,"successTP":8.23235409,"baseTP":7.56695925,"swingPct":22,"successMove":9,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-31","asset":"quemliclustat","indication":"quem_pdac","title":"Quemliclustat PRISM-1 Ph3 PDAC 1L topline (gem/nab-paclitaxel combo)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/arcus-biosciences-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-a-pipeline-update","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.73411246,"successTP":10.567596,"baseTP":7.56695925,"swingPct":64,"successMove":40,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":48,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":7.59}},"RDHL":{"name":"RedHill Biopharma Ltd.","subtitle":"Israeli GI specialty restructured | FY25 Talicia $10.8M (in 70% Talicia Holdings JV w/ Cumberland) + $60M RHB-102 licensing + $10.5M legal judgment | continuing ops rev $0.3M; cash $4.1M","currency":"USD","country":"IL","region":"MEA.IL","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":9,"netCashLocal":4,"cashPS":0.4444,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.24,"bear":0.53,"base":1.08,"bull":2.5,"psychedelic_bull":6},"weightedTP":1.46,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.bacterial.h_pylori","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","_established_products.rdhl_gi_specialty","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.combination.anti_infective","small_molecule","small_molecule.combination","_diversified.branded.gi","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.rdhl_gi_specialty","purity":177},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.h_pylori","purity":23},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":11}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.rdhl_gi_specialty","purity":177},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.h_pylori","purity":23},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":3.168,"totalWTD":3.168},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"talicia","indication":"hpylori_talicia","title":"RedHill H1 2026 results (6-K) -- Talicia commercial ramp inside the 70%-owned Cumberland JV [ROLLED from 2026-08-15: not published as of Aug 18 2026; RedHill is a foreign private issuer and filed FY2025 only on Apr 27 2026, so the H1 6-K lands later in the half]","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"RDHL IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.46055556,"successTP":1.46055556,"baseTP":1.46055556,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":13,"lenses":{"comparable":1.45}},"REC":{"name":"Recordati S.p.A.","subtitle":"Italian rare-disease + primary-care (family-controlled Recordati) | FY25 EUR 2.5B (+8%) | Carbaglu (NAGS def) + Cystadrops + Signifor + Isturisa (osilodrostat Cushing's)","currency":"EUR","country":"IT","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":209,"netCashLocal":-1917.1,"cashPS":-9.1727,"tps":{"mega_bear":18.74,"bear":31.59,"base":52.96,"bull":85.52,"psychedelic_bull":132.6},"weightedTP":56.32,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.pituitary.cushing","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine","oncology.lymphoma.castleman","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","_established_products.recordati_heritage","_established_products"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.somatostatin_analog","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","small_molecule.enzyme.cyp11b1_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il6","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_gd2","small_molecule.gpcr.atypical_antipsychotic","small_molecule.gpcr","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.recordati_heritage","purity":99},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":49},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":35},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":24},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.castleman","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":4},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.recordati_heritage","purity":102},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":50},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":32},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":25},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.castleman","purity":6},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.recordati_heritage","purity":93},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":41},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.castleman","purity":23},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":9},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.gepnet","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":17,"rarePurityWtd":17,"optionality":3,"totalTAM":50.3518,"totalWTD":48.818471},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"reagila","indication":"schizophrenia_eu","title":"Reagila EU/RoW market share update + AbbVie Vraylar US growth dynamics","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.recordati.com/en/investors","_confidence":"high","failTP":56.3177033,"successTP":56.3177033,"baseTP":56.3177033,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 15 2026 (offer close)","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"rec_specialty","indication":"specialty_bulk","title":"CVC + GBL (Respighi BidCo) all-cash tender offer at EUR 51.29/share closes (period Aug 31 - Oct 15 2026); Rossini/CVC already holds 46.8%; aims to delist; board split 6-4, Palliser pushing for >=EUR 60","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/palliser-capital-urges-recordatis-board-withdraw-support-cvc-gbl-offer","_confidence":"high","failTP":56.3177033,"successTP":56.3177033,"baseTP":56.3177033,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"isturisa","indication":"cushing","title":"Isturisa Cushing's disease global launch trajectory + Korlym competitive dynamics","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.recordati.com/en/investors","_confidence":"high","failTP":56.3177033,"successTP":56.3177033,"baseTP":56.3177033,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2340,"lenses":{"comparable":29,"eeRel":1.828,"peRel":0.9905}},"REGN":{"name":"Regeneron Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Eylea/Eylea HD + Dupixent collab + Libtayo + emerging bispecifics","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":102.6,"netCashLocal":6047.5,"cashPS":58.9425,"tps":{"mega_bear":336.92,"bear":438.25,"base":539.62,"bull":739.93,"psychedelic_bull":1009.31},"weightedTP":587.84,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dme","ophthalmology.retina.dr","ophthalmology.retina.rvo","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory.inflammatory.crswnp","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.skin.cscc","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.bcc","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.lipids.hofh","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","oncology.lymphoma.fl","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","oncology.skin.melanoma","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il4ra","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pcsk9","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_angptl3","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bcma_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cd20_cd3","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_lag3","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.galnac_platform","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":28},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":19},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":18},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":10},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.crswnp","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.cscc","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.bcc","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.hofh","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":29},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":28},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":20},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":13},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":12},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":10},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.crswnp","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.cscc","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":4},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.bcc","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.hofh","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":39},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":38},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":19},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":19},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dme","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.skin.cscc","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":12},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":11},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.skin.bcc","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":8},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.crswnp","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.hofh","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":10,"rarePurityWtd":9,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":180.52135,"totalWTD":176.792155},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"odronextamab","indication":"fl_dlbcl","title":"REPORTED: Odronextamab US BLA -- 2 CRLs received (Mar 2024 FL/DLBCL + Aug 2025 manufacturing/Catalent Indiana site); no new PDUFA action on file. Regeneron evaluating resubmission strategy; approved in EU as Ordspono Aug 2024.","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","_source":"Targeted Oncology, GeneOnline, Regeneron IR","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"US BLA twice CRL'd (Mar 2024 FL/DLBCL confirmatory-enrollment; Aug 2025 Catalent Indiana manufacturing) -- US approval NOT achieved. Approved in EU as Ordspono Aug 2024; Regeneron evaluating resubmission. Prior 'success' flag was an erroneous legacy migration; note fl_dlbcl pos/apr still 100 across scenarios -- verify SOM is EU-only basis. Reviewed 2026-07-06.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":587.844231,"successTP":587.844231,"baseTP":587.844231,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"fianlimab","indication":"mel_1l","title":"REPORTED: Fianlimab + cemiplimab Ph3 1L melanoma readout -- MISS (PFS HR 0.845, p=0.0627, May 2026; NCT05352672)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Most catalyst-rich event for REGN; market expects readout H1 2026 per JPM 2026 presentation","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"NCT05352672 MISS: fianlimab+Libtayo did not show statistically significant PFS benefit vs pembrolizumab in 1L unresectable/metastatic melanoma (Regeneron update May 2026). Resolved to pre-declared fail leg (pos 10 / apr 30 base). 1L mel pipeline value largely written down; other fianlimab Ph3s (adjuvant mel, NSCLC) retained. Reviewed 2026-06-18.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":587.451585,"successTP":605.449133,"baseTP":587.844231,"swingPct":3,"successMove":3,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":10,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"cemdisiran","indication":"gmg","title":"RESOLVED 2025-08-26 (HIT): Pozelimab + cemdisiran / cemdisiran mono Ph3 NIMBLE gMG met primary MG-ADL endpoint (cemdisiran mono -2.3 vs placebo, combo -1.74) and key secondary QMG; Lancet + AAN Apr 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cemdisiran-regulatory-submissions-accepted-review-fda-and-ema","failTP":572.543349,"successTP":591.855137,"baseTP":587.844231,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"linvoseltamab","indication":"rrmm","title":"Linvoseltamab 1L MM Ph3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":587.844231,"successTP":587.844231,"baseTP":587.844231,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"cemdisiran","indication":"gmg","title":"Cemdisiran (monotherapy) gMG FDA decision -- NDA under Priority Review (PRV), target action date Nov 2026; EC decision H2 2027","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":100,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cemdisiran-regulatory-submissions-accepted-review-fda-and-ema","failTP":572.97704,"successTP":595.485135,"baseTP":587.844231,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":11300,"lenses":{"comparable":416.91,"eeRel":0.8544,"peRel":1.0987},"readouts":[{"a":"linvoseltamab","ind":"rrmm","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.4l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":54.7007704,"lo":8.11208251,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.22315,"bestDrug":"talquetamab 0.8mg/kg","bestValue":73},{"a":"cemdisiran","ind":"gmg","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.62317497,"lo":-0.339099207,"hi":3.01938633,"pBeatBest":0.09095,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59}]},"REPL":{"name":"Replimune Group","subtitle":"RP1 (Tudriqev) oncolytic HSV+nivo -- FDA ACCELERATED APPROVAL Aug 6'26, 2L+ melanoma (after 2 CRLs); IGNYTE-3 Ph3 OS confirmatory re-guided to 2030; RP2 REVEAL uveal Ph2/3; cash $336M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":94.22,"netCashLocal":336.3,"cashPS":3.5693,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.84,"bear":3.56,"base":4.25,"bull":4.99,"psychedelic_bull":5.8},"weightedTP":4.25,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.gi.hcc","oncology.gi"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.hsv.oncolytic_galv_gmcsf","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.hsv","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.hsv.oncolytic_ctla4"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":175},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":87},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":13}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":125},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":38}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":5}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":291,"totalTAM":7.457,"totalWTD":1.9054704},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-02","asset":"rp1","indication":"rp1_melanoma","title":"REPORTED: RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivo PDUFA -- 3rd BLA resubmission ACCEPTED Jun 26 2026 as Class 1 complete response; FDA AdCom late Jul 2026","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":90,"_source":"FDA","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/26/3318188/0/en/Replimune-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-RP1-Biologics-License-Application-Resubmission-for-Advanced-Melanoma.html","_addedAt":"2026-06-29T00:00:00Z","_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-08-06: FDA ACCELERATED APPROVAL of Tudriqev (vusolimogene oderparepvec-wtpg) + nivolumab for unresectable advanced melanoma. Jul 30 CTGTAC voted 10-3 that IGNYTE efficacy was evaluable/meaningful (24.2% ORR, 14.1mo mDoR). Source: CancerNetwork 2026-08-06.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3.16923703,"successTP":4.57648031,"baseTP":4.25079858,"swingPct":33,"successMove":8,"failMove":-25,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"rp2","indication":"rp2_hcc","title":"RP2 REVEAL Ph2/3 metastatic uveal melanoma -- Ph2-to-Ph3 transition decision (company guides Q1 2027; ~280 pts actively enrolling)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/14/3345284/0/en/replimune-reports-fiscal-first-quarter-2027-financial-results-and-provides-corporate-update.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.1556051,"successTP":4.33242926,"baseTP":4.25079858,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2030","dateSort":"2030-06-30","asset":"rp1","indication":"rp1_melanoma","title":"IGNYTE-3 Ph3 confirmatory OS readout (~400 pts, primary OS) -- company guides 2030; gates conversion of the Aug'26 accelerated approval to full","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/14/3345284/0/en/replimune-reports-fiscal-first-quarter-2027-financial-results-and-provides-corporate-update.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.20145946,"successTP":4.54583839,"baseTP":4.25079858,"swingPct":16,"successMove":4,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.36},"readouts":[{"a":"rp2","ind":"rp2_hcc","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"oncology.gi.hcc","endpoint":"mos_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":15.5203262,"lo":7.23459869,"hi":21.9720935,"pBeatBest":0.13775,"bestDrug":"atezolizumab + bevacizumab","bestValue":19.2}]},"RGC":{"name":"Regencell Bioscience Holdings","subtitle":"HK Traditional Chinese Medicine for ADHD+ASD: Ph2 37% sx improvement; HK launch planned; meme-volatile post 38:1 split Jun'25; no FDA pathway; MCap ~$2.7B at $5.51","currency":"USD","country":"HK","region":"ASIA.HK","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":494.49,"netCashLocal":2.4,"cashPS":0.0049,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.02,"bear":0.17,"base":0.77,"bull":1.42,"psychedelic_bull":2.41},"weightedTP":0.41,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.adhd","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.neurodevelopmental.asd","cns.neurodevelopmental"],"modalities":["biological_extract.tcm.standardized_herbal","biological_extract","biological_extract.tcm"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":163},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":81},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.asd","purity":37},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":19}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":163},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":81},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.asd","purity":37},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":115},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.asd","purity":85},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":58},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":42}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":10.9325,"totalWTD":10.9325},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"tcm_adhd_asd","indication":"tcm_adhd","title":"Director/employee share LOCK-UP RELEASE (82-100% restricted; major overhang)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rgc/","_confidence":"high","failTP":0.186097971,"successTP":1.04756017,"baseTP":0.408596712,"swingPct":63,"successMove":47,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":47,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.78}},"RGNX":{"name":"REGENXBIO Inc.","subtitle":"AAV NAV platform | RGX-121 MPS II BACK ON CLINICAL HOLD Aug 24'26 (5 spine MRI findings), BLA resubmission shelved; RGX-111 held since Jan'26 | RGX-202 DMD BLA Q3'26; sura-vec Q4'26 | cash $310M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":67.12,"netCashLocal":310,"cashPS":4.6186,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.72,"bear":10.19,"base":17.58,"bull":29.74,"psychedelic_bull":43.48},"weightedTP":20.06,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dr","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_i"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav8_aflibercept","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.micro_dystrophin","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_ids","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_smn1","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_idua"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":61},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":58},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":57},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":53},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":38},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":10},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":10},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_i","purity":6},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":80},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":54},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":51},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":49},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":47},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":9},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":1},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_i","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":76},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":59},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":40},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":38},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":37},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":21},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":21},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_ii","purity":4},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":3},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_i","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":43,"rarePurityWtd":49,"optionality":39,"totalTAM":36.02475,"totalWTD":25.889391},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jan 2026","dateSort":"2026-01-21","asset":"rgx_111","indication":"rgx111_mps1","title":"REPORTED 2026-01: FDA CLINICAL HOLD on RGX-111 (STILL IN EFFECT) -- one case of neoplasm, an intraventricular CNS tumour in an asymptomatic 5-year-old dosed 4 years earlier; resected tumour showed AAV vector genome integration associated with overexpression of the proto-oncogene PLAG1. Read-across hold also imposed on RGX-121","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":12,"success_apr":45,"_source":"https://ir.regenxbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenxbio-announces-regulatory-update-ultra-rare-mps-programs/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"The portfolio's most serious safety finding and one this config had never recorded. Causality is not established and the other nine treated participants are clear, but an integration event next to a proto-oncogene is a mechanism, not just an association, and the hold is still unresolved seven months later. Base pos 35 -> 12 / apr 65 -> 45.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":19.2342942,"successTP":20.4450737,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Feb 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-07","asset":"rgx_121","indication":"rgx121_hunter","title":"REPORTED 2026-02-07: Complete Response Letter on the RGX-121 BLA -- but the FDA confirmed the existing clinical data can be considered for accelerated approval and that no additional patients or studies are required","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.regenxbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenxbio-announces-regulatory-update-ultra-rare-mps-programs/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"A CRL that left the efficacy package intact -- the reason RGX-121 keeps meaningful residual PoS even after the August hold.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":17.8715398,"successTP":19.001924,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"May 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-14","asset":"rgx_202","indication":"rgx202_dmd","title":"REPORTED: RGX-202 AFFINITY DUCHENNE Phase 3 pivotal TOPLINE HIT (p<0.0001, 93% participants >=10% microdystrophin at Wk 12, 80% had >40% expression, favorable safety) -- accelerated approval path opened","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":92,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenxbio-announces-positive-topline-results-from-pivotal-phase-iii-affinity-duchenne-study-of-rgx-202-302771834.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"AFFINITY DUCHENNE pivotal topline HIT (p<0.0001, 93% reaching >=10% microdystrophin; 80% >40%; favorable safety). Accelerated approval path opened.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":19.1423453,"successTP":21.4758902,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":12,"successMove":7,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-29","asset":"sura_vec","indication":"sura_dr","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-29: NAAVIGATE Ph2b/3 DR first patient dosed -> $100M AbbVie milestone triggered (non-dilutive; sura-vec suprachoroidal for diabetic retinopathy); DR program now in registrational trial","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.regenxbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenxbio-announces-first-patient-dosed-phase-iibiii-naavigate","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"CONFIRMED Jun 29 2026: first patient dosed in Ph2b/3 NAAVIGATE (~135 US pts, DR severity >=2-step at 1yr endpoint); $100M AbbVie milestone triggered. FLAG: company.cash=150.5 is a Q1'26 figure -- refresh to Q2 balance (nets ~$90M/qtr burn against +$100M milestone) on Q2 earnings.","failTP":17.0587963,"successTP":18.6439872,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-15","asset":"rgx_121","indication":"rgx121_hunter","title":"REPORTED 2026-05/07: partial clinical hold on RGX-121 LIFTED in May 2026, then a positive Type A meeting in July at which the FDA reaffirmed that no additional studies were required and resubmission was set for Q3 2026 -- overtaken by the Aug 24 hold","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.regenxbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenxbio-announces-regulatory-update-ultra-rare-mps-programs/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Recorded so the sequence is legible: the program was cleared and on the point of refiling when the spine MRI findings emerged from the very monitoring the January hold had imposed.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":17.8715398,"successTP":19.001924,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-06","asset":"sura_vec","indication":"sura_dr","title":"REPORTED 2026-08: Q2'26 revenue $108.0M and net income $22.7M / $0.43 per share on the $100M AbbVie milestone; July brought >$200M of new capital (milestone collected plus ~$108M net from an offering), pro-forma cash >$310M and runway into Q4 2027","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenxbio-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-operational-highlights-302844662.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Removes the financing overhang that dominated this config: runway now covers both the RGX-202 BLA and the Q4'26 sura-vec pivotal readout. Scenario dil cut accordingly.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":17.0587963,"successTP":18.6439872,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"rgx_121","indication":"rgx121_hunter","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-24: FDA CLINICAL HOLD on RGX-121 -- asymptomatic small nodules/cystic masses on SPINE MRI in 5 CAMPSIITE participants dosed intracisternally or intraventricularly 3-6 years ago (no brain findings; investigators nonserious, radiologists likely benign); BLA resubmission NOT expected in the near term","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenxbio-announces-regulatory-update-on-rgx-121-for-mps-ii-302858018.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Second hold on this program in eight months and it lands after the FDA had already accepted the efficacy package and agreed a Q3 2026 resubmission, so the loss is timing plus a safety overhang rather than a failed dataset. Sized at base pos 85 -> 40 / apr 90 -> 65: still better than even odds that the program resolves, because the findings are asymptomatic, read as benign, appear only on a scan MPS practice does not normally perform, and the FDA has said no further studies are needed -- but discounted hard for a second hold and for the vector-integration neoplasm in the sister RGX-111 study.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":18.9182924,"successTP":20.8015419,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"rgx_202","indication":"rgx202_dmd","title":"RGX-202 BLA submission INITIATION for accelerated approval in DMD -- a ROLLING submission the company guides to start in Q3 2026 (confirmatory dosing complete Jun 24 2026); the BLA carries safety from pivotal + confirmatory (n=63) and efficacy from the pivotal portion (n=30) incl. 12-month function in at least half; potential FDA approval 2H 2027, so the approval decision is NOT a 2026 event","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenxbio-completes-dosing-in-confirmatory-study-of-rgx-202-marking-completion-of-registrational-development-program-and-supporting-planned-bla-submission-in-q3-2026-302808616.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":19.0028456,"successTP":21.4174613,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":6,"successMove":4,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sura_vec","indication":"sura_nvamd","title":"Sura-vec (RGX-314) ATMOSPHERE + ASCENT Phase 3 topline (subretinal nvAMD; AbbVie-partnered)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"RGNX FY25 PR (Mar 2026)","_confidence":"high","failTP":17.5998194,"successTP":21.3386923,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":18,"successMove":6,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"itvisma_royalty","indication":"itvisma_sma_older","title":"Itvisma (Novartis SMA >=2yr; FDA Nov 2025) commercial ramp — first full launch year","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Novartis FY26 guidance + RGNX royalty share","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.5484902,"successTP":21.5230436,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"TBD","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"rgx_121","indication":"rgx121_hunter","title":"RGX-121 / RGX-111 clinical hold resolution -- full FDA hold letter, additional patient imaging and longer-term follow-up from REGENXBIO and NS Pharma; the gate on both MPS programs","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenxbio-announces-regulatory-update-on-rgx-121-for-mps-ii-302858018.html","_confidence":"low","failTP":17.9162023,"successTP":21.5815768,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":10,"successMove":4,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"TBD","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rgx_121","indication":"rgx121_hunter","title":"RGX-121 BLA resubmission -- INDEFINITELY GATED by the Aug 24 2026 clinical hold; company says not in the near term. Requires the hold to be lifted first (date is a placeholder, not company guidance)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenxbio-announces-regulatory-update-on-rgx-121-for-mps-ii-302858018.html","_confidence":"low","failTP":17.9600583,"successTP":21.4758578,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":9,"successMove":4,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"rgx_202","indication":"rgx202_dmd","title":"RGX-202 PDUFA decision (accelerated approval) + potential US commercial launch -- competes with Sarepta Elevidys","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://ir.regenxbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenxbio-announces-completion-pivotal-enrollment-and-initiates","_confidence":"medium","failTP":17.6520809,"successTP":21.7124639,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":20,"successMove":8,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-09-30","asset":"rgx_121","indication":"rgx121_hunter","title":"RGX-121 PDUFA decision post-resubmission (NS Pharma commercializes) -- pushed out from H2 2027 because the Aug 2026 hold removed the Q3 2026 resubmission slot","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenxbio-announces-regulatory-update-on-rgx-121-for-mps-ii-302858018.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":17.9162023,"successTP":22.6121089,"baseTP":20.0634835,"swingPct":12,"successMove":7,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":58,"lenses":{"comparable":22.06},"readouts":[{"a":"sura_vec","ind":"sura_nvamd","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","endpoint":"bcva_letter_gain","unit":"letters","src":"class","med":6.71214054,"lo":-3.73347325,"hi":12.179943,"pBeatBest":0.0555,"bestDrug":"ranibizumab 0.5mg monthly","bestValue":11.3}]},"RHHBY":{"name":"Roche Holding AG (Pharma division)","subtitle":"Pharma-only model | CHF 47.7B 2025 (+9% CER) | Top 5: Ocrevus/Hemlibra/Vabysmo/Phesgo/Xolair = CHF 21.4B (+CHF 3.2B) | Trontinemab AD pivotal | Excludes Diagnostics CHF 13B","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":855,"netCashLocal":8300,"cashPS":9.7076,"tps":{"mega_bear":229.11,"bear":304.9,"base":378.44,"bull":523.4,"psychedelic_bull":706.2},"weightedTP":412.57,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","ophthalmology.retina.dr","ophthalmology.retina.rvo","oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.cll","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","respiratory.genetic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.thrombolytic","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory.fibrotic","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology.hemolytic","hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","hematology.hemoglobinopathy","nephrology.glomerular.pmn","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","ophthalmology.uveitis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd20","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.bispecific.fixa_fx","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.vegf_ang2","biologic.antibody.fusion.her2_sc_combo","biologic.antibody.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_her2","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_vegf","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il6r","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ige","small_molecule.rna_modulator.smn2_splice","small_molecule","small_molecule.rna_modulator","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.cd79b","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pdl1","small_molecule.kinase.pi3k_alpha","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cd20_cd3","_diversified.diagnostics.lab_services","_diversified","_diversified.diagnostics","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","_diversified.branded","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_c5","biologic.antibody.bispecific.amyloid_brainshuttle","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_st2","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il6_intravitreal","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cytokine"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":19},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":13},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":10},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":10},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":7},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":7},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":7},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":5},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.thrombolytic","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":4},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":3},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":3},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":2},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":23},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":12},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":12},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":9},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":8},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":7},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":6},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":6},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":5},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.thrombolytic","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":3},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":2},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":1},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":108},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":54},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":46},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":39},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":32},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":14},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.dr","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.rvo","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.1l_metastatic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.cll","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.alk","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.thrombolytic","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":24,"rarePurityWtd":26,"optionality":22,"totalTAM":327.78985,"totalWTD":268.76339},"catalysts":[{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"gazyva_pmn","indication":"gazyva_pmn_ind","title":"Gazyva sBLA FDA decision in primary membranous nephropathy -- PRIORITY REVIEW granted Jul 14 2026 on Ph3 MAJESTY; would be the FIRST approved therapy for pMN in the US or EU","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":92,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":100,"_note":"New indication opportunity on a mature/heritage asset. FDA granted priority review to the Gazyva (obinutuzumab) sBLA in primary membranous nephropathy on 2026-07-14, decision expected by November 2026; BTD already held. Basis is the Ph3 MAJESTY trial, where obinutuzumab beat tacrolimus on complete remission at week 104 (36.9% vs 5.7%). pMN has no approved therapy in the US or EU, so approval would open a genuinely new franchise rather than extend an existing one. NO assumption change made: this config carries Gazyva as a single mature CLL indication (gazyva_cll) with no pMN indication entry, and adding one is a config-structure change (new indication + SOM) that belongs to a manual pass, not an auto-edit. Flagged for review. Sources: Roche media release 2026-07-15; Genentech PR 2026-07-14 (gene.com/media/press-releases/15121).","_source":"https://www.roche.com/media/releases/med-cor-2026-07-15","_confidence":"high","failTP":411.871125,"successTP":412.801217,"baseTP":412.572131,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"itovebi","indication":"itovebi_breast","title":"Itovebi INAVO121 2L post-CDK4/6 breast Phase 3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"RHHBY pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":412.572131,"successTP":412.572131,"baseTP":412.572131,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"trontinemab","indication":"tron_alz","title":"Trontinemab Brainshuttle Alzheimer Phase 3 readout (TRONTIER fully enrolled; readout guided 2028 at Roche Pharma Day Sep 28 2026 -- slipped)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"RHHBY pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":411.866417,"successTP":412.831353,"baseTP":412.572131,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":76780,"lenses":{"comparable":263.7,"eeRel":1.0687,"peRel":0.9554},"readouts":[{"a":"trontinemab","ind":"tron_alz","ds":"2028-06-30","area":"cns.neurodegeneration.alzheimer","endpoint":"cdr_sb_slowing_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":11.126319,"lo":-9.02026499,"hi":39.464677,"pBeatBest":0.14645,"bestDrug":"lecanemab","bestValue":27}]},"RICHT":{"name":"Gedeon Richter Plc","subtitle":"Hungarian specialty pharma (HUF 914B FY25, +8%; Clean EBIT HUF 305B (+14%, beat guide)); Vraylar/cariprazine royalties (AbbVie) HUF 250B (+9%) + women's health (Ryeqo +90% Q4, Drovelis +47% Q4) +...","currency":"HUF","country":"HU","region":"EUROPE.OTHER","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":182.39,"netCashLocal":223350,"cashPS":1224.5737,"tps":{"mega_bear":8742.41,"bear":13754.57,"base":18767,"bull":26285.09,"psychedelic_bull":38814.57},"weightedTP":20395.81,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","women_health.menopause.hrt","women_health","women_health.menopause","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_d3","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.gnrh","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.estrogen_estetrol","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_diversified","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il6r_biosimilar","_diversified.branded.gpcr_mixed","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.cee_specialty"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":85},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":51},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":43},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":33},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":29},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":26},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":25},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":5},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":3},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":93},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":56},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":46},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":36},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":28},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":23},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":9},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":6},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":3},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":114},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":74},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":60},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":37},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":9,"totalTAM":73.5325,"totalWTD":67.2764125},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 29 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-29","asset":"rgb_19","indication":"rgb19_ra","title":"REPORTED: RGB-19 (Tuyory) tocilizumab biosimilar APPROVED -- EU marketing authorization granted (IV+SC, multi-indication); Japan approved Mar 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.pearceip.law/2026/04/29/gedeon-richters-tocilizumab-biosimilar-eu-approved/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Clean binary SUCCESS: European Commission granted marketing authorization for Tuyory (biosimilar tocilizumab) on 2026-04-29, following CHMP positive opinion Feb 2026; approved IV+SC across RA/sJIA/pJIA/GCA/CRS/COVID-19. Japan approved Mar 2026 (Richter/Mochida). rgb19_ra assumptions already 100/100 across scenarios (commercial-style), so monotonicity preserved; no shift needed.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_note":"2026-04-29: EU approval confirmed (Pearce IP / Gedeon Richter PR). Biosimilar de-risked to commercial across EU + Japan.","failTP":20393.9488,"successTP":20396.3457,"baseTP":20395.8067,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Late 2026 / 2027","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"rgh_932","indication":"rgh932_bipolar","title":"RGH-932 AbbVie-partnered bipolar depression Ph2 interim/topline (typical 18-24m readout cadence)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"AbbVie/Richter","_confidence":"low","failTP":20394.4818,"successTP":20397.3734,"baseTP":20395.8067,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2385,"lenses":{"comparable":17671.46,"peRel":3.8253}},"RIGL":{"name":"Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"US specialty heme-onc: TAVALISSE (cITP) + REZLIDHIA (IDH1m AML) + GAVRETO (RET) + VEPPANU ESR1m PROTAC (available mid-Aug'26) | FY26 guide raised to $285-295M; Q2'26 rev $78.7M, NI $17.3M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":18.68,"netCashLocal":56.06,"cashPS":3.0011,"tps":{"mega_bear":14.13,"bear":29.28,"base":53.06,"bull":102.6,"psychedelic_bull":178.97},"weightedTP":62.56,"meta":{"areas":["hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias","hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","oncology.leukemia.aml.idh1_2_mut","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","oncology.tissue_agnostic","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","oncology.myeloid.mds","oncology.myeloid"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.syk","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.idh1_inhibitor","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.kinase.ret","small_molecule.protein_degrader.serd_protac","small_molecule.protein_degrader","small_molecule.kinase.irak1_4"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":37},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":37},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":30},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":10},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.idh1_2_mut","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":49},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":49},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":49},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":24},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.idh1_2_mut","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.esr1_mut","purity":74},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":74},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":74},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":27},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.ret_fusion","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mds","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.idh1_2_mut","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":2},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":54,"rarePurityWtd":39,"optionality":33,"totalTAM":29.944,"totalWTD":22.5605},"catalysts":[{"date":"2022","dateSort":"2022-06-30","asset":"tavalisse","indication":"waiha","title":"RESOLVED 2022: FORWARD Ph3 wAIHA MISSED primary (durable Hb response 35.6% vs 26.7%, p=0.398; AJH 2023) -- stale future-dated catalyst corrected 2026-09-14","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":90,"_source":"RIGL pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeSource":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37929318/","failTP":62.5634391,"successTP":62.5634391,"baseTP":62.5634391,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-05","asset":"veppanu","indication":"veppanu_esr1m","title":"Veppanu US launch progress -- first full quarter post launch (US availability Aug 13 2026) at Q3 results","type":"launch","binary":false,"_source":"RIGL/ARVN/PFE deal PR May 12, 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":62.5634391,"successTP":62.5634391,"baseTP":62.5634391,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"r289","indication":"lr_mds","title":"R289 Phase 1b lower-risk MDS preliminary dose-expansion data + RP2D selection -- ROLLED: guided by year-end 2026 (Q2 8-K)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"_source":"RIGL Q1'26 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":45.264393,"successTP":73.7358518,"baseTP":62.5634391,"swingPct":32,"successMove":13,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":232,"lenses":{"comparable":169.71,"eeRel":2.8111,"peRel":24.9148}},"RKT":{"name":"Reckitt Benckiser Group plc","subtitle":"UK consumer-health pharma (Mucinex/Strepsils/Nurofen/Gaviscon/Durex) + Hygiene (Lysol/Dettol/Finish) + Mead Johnson Nutrition (under strategic review) | FY25 +5% LFL; 2026 guide 4-5% growth","currency":"GBP","country":"GB","region":"EUROPE.UK","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":701.74,"netCashLocal":-6558,"cashPS":-9.3453,"tps":{"mega_bear":14.5,"bear":30.4,"base":54.25,"bull":78.1,"psychedelic_bull":117.85},"weightedTP":57.83,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.rkt_consumer_health","_established_products","_established_products.rkt_hygiene","_established_products.rkt_nutrition_mjn"],"modalities":["_diversified.consumer.consumer_health_global","_diversified","_diversified.consumer","_diversified.consumer.hygiene_household","_diversified.consumer.nutrition_infant"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.rkt_hygiene","purity":200},{"area":"_established_products.rkt_consumer_health","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.rkt_nutrition_mjn","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.rkt_hygiene","purity":200},{"area":"_established_products.rkt_consumer_health","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.rkt_nutrition_mjn","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.rkt_hygiene","purity":200},{"area":"_established_products.rkt_consumer_health","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.rkt_nutrition_mjn","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":1.548,"totalWTD":1.548},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"rkt_nutrition","indication":"rkt_nutr","title":"Mead Johnson Nutrition strategic review outcome (separation) -- Aug 2026 tender/consent released Reckitt's guarantee of MJN's 2044 notes, de-linking the business","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":80,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/reckitt-announces-expiration-and-results-of-any-and-all-tender-offer-and-consent-solicitation-for-mead-johnson-nutrition-company-notes-due-2044-302851742.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":57.8310405,"successTP":57.8310405,"baseTP":57.8310405,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":13500,"lenses":{"comparable":30.33,"eeRel":0.9573,"peRel":1.0021}},"RLAY":{"name":"Relay Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Motion-based drug discovery -- zovegalisib (RLY-2608) PI3Ka Ph3 ReDiscover-2 2L HR+/HER2- PIK3CA-mut BC, FDA BTD Feb 2026; PROS Ph1/2 May 2026; RLY-8161 NRAS Ph1/2; Fabry chaperone discovery","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":219.14,"netCashLocal":910.9,"cashPS":4.1567,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.44,"bear":7.5,"base":13.07,"bull":17.85,"psychedelic_bull":23.25},"weightedTP":13.51,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","dermatology.vascular_malformation.pros_spectrum","dermatology","dermatology.vascular_malformation","oncology.skin.melanoma.nras_mut","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.kinase_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone.non_inhibitory","small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":55},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.pros_spectrum","purity":44},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":41},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":22},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.nras_mut","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.pros_spectrum","purity":83},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":54},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":41},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.nras_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation.pros_spectrum","purity":127},{"area":"dermatology.vascular_malformation","purity":63},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.pik3ca_mut","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":35},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.fabry","purity":3},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.nras_mut","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":43,"rarePurityWtd":45,"optionality":159,"totalTAM":15.927,"totalWTD":6.1581481},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 19, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-19","asset":"zovegalisib","indication":"zove_pros","title":"REPORTED: Zovegalisib (RLY-2608) Phase 1/2 ReInspire PROS / PIK3CA-driven vascular anomalies LBA at ISSVA World Congress May 19 2026 -- POSITIVE: 60% volumetric response (>=20% MRI target-lesion reduction) in 20 evaluable, 95% some shrinkage, 32 enrolled (22 PROS / 8 LM / 2 VeM); pivotal Ph3 design pending","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://ir.relaytx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/relay-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-corporate-updates","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Ph2 Part 1 (PIK3CA-driven vascular anomalies / PROS, ≥12yo) presented at ISSVA Philadelphia: 60% volumetric response at 12 weeks across all doses (~29% at lowest 100mg BID); near-universal symptomatic improvement; tolerability supports chronic dosing. Pivotal Ph3 design pending.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/19/3297237/0/en/Relay-Therapeutics-Announces-Initial-Clinical-Data-Demonstrating-That-Zovegalisib-Has-Potential-for-Differentiated-Safety-and-Efficacy-in-Patients-with-PIK3CA-Driven-Vascular-Anoma.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":7.68950306,"successTP":15.637141,"baseTP":13.5082278,"swingPct":59,"successMove":16,"failMove":-43,"yourPoS":82,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":47},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"zovegalisib","indication":"zove_bc_2l","title":"ReDiscover-2 Ph3 2L HR+/HER2- PIK3CA-mut breast cancer enrollment + interim updates; potential first DMC look","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.relaytx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/relay-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-corporate-updates","_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.82907905,"successTP":11.045358,"baseTP":13.5082278,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zovegalisib","indication":"zove_pros","title":"Zovegalisib ReInspire (PROS / PIK3CA-driven vascular anomalies) expansion-cohort data + regulatory update on pivotal path (guided by year-end 2026, Q2'26 report)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":82,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/relay-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-corporate-updates","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.4231857,"successTP":15.4300902,"baseTP":13.5082278,"swingPct":15,"successMove":7,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"2H 2026 - H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"rly_fabry","indication":"fabry_chap","title":"RLY Fabry non-inhibitory chaperone IND filing + Phase 1 SAD initiation (clinic-entry milestone)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.relaytx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/relay-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-corporate-updates","_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.2616352,"successTP":13.3685061,"baseTP":13.5082278,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":6,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"zovegalisib","indication":"zove_bc_1l","title":"Zovegalisib 1L HR+/HER2- PIK3CA-mut frontline Ph3 triplet (atirmociclib + endocrine therapy) trial initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.relaytx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/relay-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-corporate-updates","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.0273838,"successTP":13.2315471,"baseTP":13.5082278,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"rly8161","indication":"rly8161_mel","title":"RLY-8161 NRAS-mut solid tumor / melanoma Ph1/2 dose-expansion data; pivotal Ph3 decision","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://ir.relaytx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/relay-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-corporate-updates","_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.4821573,"successTP":13.5313785,"baseTP":13.5082278,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":13.98}},"RLMD":{"name":"Relmada Therapeutics","subtitle":"Pivoted post-REL-1017: NDV-01 sustained-release Gem/Doce intravesical NMIBC -- Ph2a 95% anytime / 76% 12-mo CR (94%/80% BCG-unresp); IND YE'26 then Ph3 RESCUE; sepranolone PWS; cash $217.7M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":110.88,"netCashLocal":217.7,"cashPS":1.9634,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.51,"bear":2.13,"base":3.28,"bull":5.28,"psychedelic_bull":7.09},"weightedTP":3.11,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.gem_doce_intravesical","small_molecule","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_a_allopreg_antagonist","small_molecule.ion_channel"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":57},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":57},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":43}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":76},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":24}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":86},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":14}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":57,"rarePurityWtd":24,"optionality":298,"totalTAM":10.03125,"totalWTD":2.521134},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ndv01","indication":"ndv01_nmibc","title":"NDV-01 IND submission (YE 2026) -- Ph3 RESCUE registrational start follows IND clearance in 2027","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/relmada-terminates-license-agreement-troubled-phase-3-depression-asset","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.8576621,"successTP":4.28956477,"baseTP":3.11362214,"swingPct":23,"successMove":11,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.15}},"RNA":{"name":"Atrium Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Avidity carve-out Feb'26: cardiac siRNA AOC platform; ATR-1072 PRKAG2 IND CLEARED Aug'26 -> Ph1/2 Corventis (first pt YE'26, PoC H2'27); ATR-1086 PLN preclinical; BMS collab; cash $264M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":17.1,"netCashLocal":263.9,"cashPS":15.4327,"tps":{"mega_bear":9.33,"bear":14.38,"base":21.7,"bull":35.7,"psychedelic_bull":63.9},"weightedTP":20.35,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.prkag2","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.pln","_platform.cardiac_sirna_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.cardiac_aoc","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.pln","purity":134},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.prkag2","purity":66},{"area":"_platform.cardiac_sirna_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.prkag2","purity":105},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.pln","purity":95},{"area":"_platform.cardiac_sirna_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.prkag2","purity":140},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiomyopathy.pln","purity":60},{"area":"_platform.cardiac_sirna_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":820,"totalTAM":7.157,"totalWTD":0.7778476},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-15","asset":"bms_collab","indication":"bms_cardiac","title":"REPORTED: second $15M BMS collaboration milestone earned Aug 2026 (lead compound delivery; booked Q3 2026; within runway guidance to mid-2028)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002093101/000119312526349482/d149126dex991.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.3495826,"successTP":20.3495826,"baseTP":20.3495826,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"atr1072","indication":"atr1072_prkag2","title":"REPORTED: ATR-1072 PRKAG2 IND CLEARED by FDA + Health Canada No Objection Letter (disclosed Aug 13 2026) -- Ph1/2 CORVENTIS cleared to proceed","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/atrium-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-302851394.html","failTP":13.3908264,"successTP":16.6080174,"baseTP":20.3495826,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-9,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":17,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"atr1072","indication":"atr1072_prkag2","title":"ATR-1072 preclinical data update (AHA 2026 / HFSA cardiac conferences)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.3908264,"successTP":16.6080174,"baseTP":20.3495826,"swingPct":14,"successMove":-15,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":17,"expectedReturn":-26,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"atr1072","indication":"atr1072_prkag2","title":"ATR-1072 Ph1/2 CORVENTIS first participant enrolled (company guides by end of 2026)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.3908264,"successTP":16.6080174,"baseTP":20.3495826,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":17,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"bms_collab","indication":"bms_cardiac","title":"BMS cardiac siRNA collaboration milestone trigger","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":20.3495826,"successTP":20.3495826,"baseTP":20.3495826,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-30","asset":"atr1086","indication":"atr1086_pln","title":"ATR-1086 PLN cardiomyopathy IND filing","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":16.4079414,"successTP":18.8846986,"baseTP":20.3495826,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"atr1072","indication":"atr1072_prkag2","title":"ATR-1072 Ph1/2 CORVENTIS initial proof-of-concept data (safety/PK/PD/efficacy in PRKAG2) -- company guides H2 2027","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":12,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.5362469,"successTP":25.7853812,"baseTP":20.3495826,"swingPct":42,"successMove":19,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":19.51}},"RNAC":{"name":"Cartesian Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"mRNA CAR-T BCMA autoimmune (non-viral, outpatient, repeat-dose): Descartes-08 AURORA Ph3 gMG Q1 27 + TRITON myositis H1 27 + SLE Ph2 hit + JDM HELIOS | Cash $120M to mid 27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":28.54,"netCashLocal":99.3,"cashPS":3.4793,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.23,"bear":2.07,"base":5.37,"bull":12.61,"psychedelic_bull":19.52},"weightedTP":5.51,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.car_t_mrna_bcma","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":98},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":67},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":66},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":35},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":33}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":97},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":74},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":53},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":50},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":26}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":131},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":73},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":54},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":15}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":298,"totalTAM":37.259,"totalWTD":9.36005},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-15","asset":"descartes08","indication":"d08_gmg","title":"Descartes-08 AURORA Ph3 gMG topline (DOMINANT BINARY)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_confidence":"high","failTP":4.88433456,"successTP":6.1462911,"baseTP":5.51161216,"swingPct":23,"successMove":12,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-30","asset":"descartes08","indication":"d08_myositis","title":"Descartes-08 TRITON Ph2 myositis (adult DM/PM) data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"high","failTP":3.9954922,"successTP":6.85011682,"baseTP":5.51161216,"swingPct":52,"successMove":24,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"descartes08","indication":"d08_jdm","title":"Descartes-08 HELIOS Ph1/2 JDM pediatric data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.98844082,"successTP":8.02519912,"baseTP":5.51161216,"swingPct":92,"successMove":46,"failMove":-46,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"descartes08","indication":"d08_gmg","title":"Descartes-08 BLA submission (gMG, post-AURORA HIT)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.87963263,"successTP":5.46641994,"baseTP":5.51161216,"swingPct":2,"successMove":0,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":18.48},"readouts":[{"a":"descartes08","ind":"d08_gmg","ds":"2027-03-15","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.09467757,"lo":-0.705859582,"hi":2.87305591,"pBeatBest":0.05845,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59}]},"ROIV":{"name":"Roivant Sciences Ltd","subtitle":"Holdco / Vant model: 64.65% IMVT stake ($4.97B MTM) + wholly-owned Vants: LISRAYA (brepocitinib) FDA APPROVED Aug 27 2026 in adult DM + Mosli (Pulmovant) + Hemavant + Genevant. Cash+stake ~$8.6B.","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":709.7,"netCashLocal":8644,"cashPS":12.1798,"tps":{"mega_bear":13.19,"bear":14.71,"base":16.15,"bull":17.77,"psychedelic_bull":19.71},"weightedTP":16.33,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.uveitis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.sarcoidosis_cutaneous","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.tyk2_jak1","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.sgc_inhaled","small_molecule.enzyme","peptide.hormone_analog.hepcidin_mimetic","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","_diversified.mixed.lnp_royalty","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":69},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":60},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":39},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":16},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":14},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.sarcoidosis_cutaneous","purity":9},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":7},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":125},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":62},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":20},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":17},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":10},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.sarcoidosis_cutaneous","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":10},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":5},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":124},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":62},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":20},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis.niu","purity":18},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":14},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.sarcoidosis_cutaneous","purity":10},{"area":"ophthalmology.uveitis","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":7},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.pv","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":66,"rarePurityWtd":87,"optionality":107,"totalTAM":30.3892,"totalWTD":14.6742812},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 27 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-27","asset":"brepocitinib","indication":"brepo_dm","title":"REPORTED: LISRAYA (brepocitinib) FDA APPROVED Aug 27 2026 for adult dermatomyositis -- first targeted therapy in DM, US availability immediate; pos/apr to 100/100","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Roivant/Priovant PR + 8-K, Aug 27 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":15.130908,"successTP":16.5579061,"baseTP":16.3257729,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"mosliciguat","indication":"mosli_phild","title":"REPORTED (2026-09-08, HIT): Mosliciguat PHocus Ph2 PH-ILD POSITIVE -- 56.3% placebo-adjusted PVR reduction at Wk16 (company: highest ever reported in a randomised PH trial), +35.2m 6MWD, -53.2% NT-proBNP, deepening at Wk24; cough LOWER on drug (12.1% vs 18.2% pbo); Ph3 PHrontier initiated (~375 pts)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000114036126035859/ef20081686_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.0836818,"successTP":16.3658753,"baseTP":16.3257729,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2028","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"mosliciguat","indication":"mosli_phild","title":"Mosliciguat Ph3 PHrontier topline in PH-ILD (~375 patients, global) -- initiated Sep 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1635088/000114036126035859/ef20081686_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":16.0734101,"successTP":16.4338172,"baseTP":16.3257729,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":50,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","ratioPct":137}]},"lenses":{"comparable":18.41}},"ROVI":{"name":"Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A.","subtitle":"Spanish specialty pharma + CDMO: Okedi (Risperidone ISM, schizophrenia LAI) €56.7M (+97%) + Heparin franchise €266.8M (+7%) including Enoxaparin biosimilar €157.7M | CDMO €269.5M (-20% post-Moderna)","currency":"EUR","country":"ES","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":51.15,"netCashLocal":200,"cashPS":3.9101,"tps":{"mega_bear":18.68,"bear":31.66,"base":55.76,"bull":82.15,"psychedelic_bull":115.41},"weightedTP":59.87,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.vte","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","_established_products.stada_otc","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","oncology","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_d2_lai","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","biological_extract.heparin.bemiparin_lmwh","biological_extract","biological_extract.heparin","_platform.cdmo.formulation","_platform","_platform.cdmo","_diversified.branded.spain_specialty","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.enzyme.aromatase_letrozole_lai","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":110},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":55},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":38},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.vte","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":7},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":118},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":32},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.vte","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":9},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":133},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":66},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.vte","purity":65},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.hr_her2_neg","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":31,"totalTAM":44.595,"totalWTD":34.0272187},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"okedi","indication":"okedi_schiz","title":"Okedi €100M+ FY26 trajectory (+75% Y/Y); China Rykindo ramp","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ROVI FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":59.8717013,"successTP":59.8717013,"baseTP":59.8717013,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"rovi_cdmo","indication":"rovi_cdmo_div","title":"CDMO new contract wins post-Moderna replacement (key bear/bull binary)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ROVI Q4'25 earnings call","_confidence":"medium","failTP":59.8717013,"successTP":59.8717013,"baseTP":59.8717013,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"letrozole_lebe","indication":"letr_lebe_breast","title":"Letrozole LEBE Phase 3 first-patient-in (three-monthly long-acting aromatase inhibitor, HR+ breast adjuvant; readout 2030-31). SLIPPED (date rolled from 2026-08-31): IND filed Nov 2025 and first-trial recruitment guided Q2 2026, but the studies on the registry remain PK / steady-state bioavailability vs oral letrozole (NCT06315205, NCT07401381) -- no Ph3 FPI confirmed. Ph1 (early 2025) showed superior estrogen suppression vs Femara. No assumption change","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":70,"_source":"ROVI pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_note":"Slipped: ROVI Q1 2026 guidance targets recruitment start in 2026; the Ph3 Letrozole SIE vs Femara (both + ribociclib) trial (NCT07340658) is planned to begin ~August 2026, not mid-June. Rescheduled to Aug 2026. Source: ROVI Q1 2026 earnings slides (investing.com) + ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07340658.","failTP":58.5576934,"successTP":60.2818562,"baseTP":59.8717013,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Jul 2027","dateSort":"2027-07-14","asset":"okedi","indication":"okedi_schiz","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-14: annual dividend ex-date EUR0.94/sh paid (~35% payout FY25); next annual dividend ~Jul 2027 (recurring, no TP impact)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ROVI 2026 dividend calendar","_confidence":"high","failTP":59.8717013,"successTP":59.8717013,"baseTP":59.8717013,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":744,"lenses":{"comparable":44.18,"eeRel":0.7841,"peRel":1.9127}},"RPRX":{"name":"Royalty Pharma plc","subtitle":"Royalty aggregator -- FY25 Portfolio Receipts $3.25B (+16%) / Royalty Receipts $3.13B (+13%); 50+ royalties led by CF franchise + Trelegy + Tremfya + Evrysdi + Voranigo + Imbruvica + Cabometyx","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":443.27,"netCashLocal":1500,"cashPS":3.3839,"tps":{"mega_bear":24.91,"bear":32.44,"base":40.04,"bull":55.18,"psychedelic_bull":70.39},"weightedTP":42.31,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","respiratory","respiratory.genetic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","_royalty.aggregator","_royalty","oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","oncology","oncology.brain"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.cftr_royalty","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","biologic.antibody.mab.royalty_stream","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.rna_modulator.splice_royalty","small_molecule.rna_modulator","_diversified.branded.royalty_aggregator","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.enzyme.idh_royalty","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":56},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":52},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":52},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":52},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":23},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":9},{"area":"_royalty.aggregator","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":56},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":52},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":52},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":52},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":23},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":9},{"area":"_royalty.aggregator","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_royalty.aggregator","purity":71},{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":69},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":34},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":22},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":22},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":22},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":48,"rarePurityWtd":48,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":59.485,"totalWTD":59.485},"catalysts":[{"date":"2025-12-15","dateSort":"2025-12-15","asset":"diversified_royalties","indication":"diversified_royalty","title":"RESOLVED 2025-12-15: Gilead Trodelvy 1L mTNBC Phase 3 positive (ASCENT-03/-04) -- FDA approved 1L mTNBC Jun 24 2026, EU CHMP positive Jul 24 2026; key portfolio royalty driver (RPRX holds Trodelvy royalty acquired from Immunomedics 2020)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"RPRX FY25 PR + Gilead","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-12-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":42.3105556,"successTP":42.3105556,"baseTP":42.3105556,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"May 15, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"diversified_royalties","indication":"diversified_royalty","title":"REPORTED 2026-05-15: Dividend ex-date $0.235 (record date May 15 2026; payment Jun 10 2026; 1.86% forward yield)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"RPRX dividend declaration","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Mechanical dividend record date occurred as scheduled; $0.235 declared; June 10 payment date.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.royaltypharma.com/investors","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":42.3105556,"successTP":42.3105556,"baseTP":42.3105556,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jun 5, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-05","asset":"diversified_royalties","indication":"diversified_royalty","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-05: FY25 results -- Portfolio Receipts $3.25B (+16%); Royalty Receipts $3.13B (+13%); $2.6B capital deployed on new royalties; $1.2B share repurchase + $512M dividends","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"RPRX Q4 2025 + FY25 PR Feb 11 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"FY25 Portfolio Receipts $3.25B (+16% YoY), Royalty Receipts $3.13B (+13% YoY); CF franchise, Tremfya/Trelegy, Evrysdi all tracking positively; $2.6B new capital deployed, $1.2B repurchase, $512M dividends demonstrate shareholder capital return.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":42.3105556,"successTP":42.3105556,"baseTP":42.3105556,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"diversified_royalties","indication":"diversified_royalty","title":"FY26 Portfolio Receipts guidance update (analyst day H2 2026; targeting double-digit growth + continued $2-3B annual capital deployment)","type":"investor_day","binary":false,"_source":"RPRX cadence","_confidence":"medium","failTP":42.3105556,"successTP":42.3105556,"baseTP":42.3105556,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":3165,"lenses":{"comparable":46.21,"eeRel":0.9352,"peRel":0.9253}},"RVMD":{"name":"Revolution Medicines","subtitle":"RASONQUE (daraxonrasib) FDA-APPROVED 26-Aug-2026, 2L+ metastatic PDAC -- first broad RAS(ON) drug · RASolute 302 mOS 13.2 vs 6.7mo (HR 0.40) · EMA phased review · 5 Ph3 · 3 BTDs","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":216.82,"netCashLocal":2960.9,"cashPS":13.656,"tps":{"mega_bear":19.39,"bear":43.92,"base":100.49,"bull":179.59,"psychedelic_bull":261.16},"weightedTP":115.76,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal.kras_mut","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","oncology.tissue_agnostic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.ras_on_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":65},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":41},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.kras_mut","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":106},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":59},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.kras_mut","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":6}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":169},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":86},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.kras","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.kras_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":127,"totalTAM":56.9416,"totalWTD":25.1315793},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-08","asset":"darax_pdac","indication":"pdac","title":"REPORTED: Daraxonrasib + TNGX vopimetostat (PRMT5) COMBO Ph1/2 HIT -- 92% ORR + 90% PFS@6mo MTAP-del PDAC; validates RAS(ON)+PRMT5 doublet, accelerates 1L PDAC path","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeNote":"Jun 8 2026 Tango announcement: daraxonrasib + vopimetostat combo 92% ORR + 90% PFS@6mo in MTAP-del PDAC. Validates RAS(ON) + PRMT5 doublet strategy; supports 1L PDAC combination Ph3 acceleration. RAS(ON) doublet trials thesis (RASolute 309) gets early proof of mechanism.","_confidence":"high","failTP":29.4902311,"successTP":48.8966812,"baseTP":115.760209,"swingPct":17,"successMove":-58,"failMove":-75,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-58,"daysOut":null,"materiality":66},{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"zoldon","indication":"g12d","title":"REPORTED: RASolute 305 G12D PDAC Phase 3 first patient dosed -- DOSING BEGUN Jun 23 2026 (zoldonrasib + chemo 1L)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":70,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Revolution Medicines began treating patients in RASolute 305 (NCT07621718), the global Phase 3 of zoldonrasib + chemo in 1L RAS G12D metastatic PDAC, announced Jun 23, 2026.","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/23/3315908/0/en/Revolution-Medicines-Begins-Treating-Patients-in-RASolute-305-a-Phase-3-Clinical-Trial-Evaluating-Zoldonrasib-in-Combination-with-Chemotherapy-as-a-First-Line-Treatment-for-Patient.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"RASolute 305 dosing begun Jun 23 2026 (GlobeNewswire PR); trial-start de-risk confirmed -- base g12d pos already 73 (> catalyst success_pos 65), no scenario change","failTP":111.954373,"successTP":118.092232,"baseTP":115.760209,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":73,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"zoldon","indication":"g12d","title":"REPORTED: RASolute 309 RAS(ON) doublet combination Phase 3 INITIATED (confirmed in Q2 2026 results release, Aug 5 2026)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":70,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/05/3339656/0/en/revolution-medicines-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-update-on-corporate-progress.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"RASolute 309 registrational trial of zoldonrasib plus daraxonrasib planned for H2 2026","_outcome":"completed","failTP":111.954373,"successTP":118.092232,"baseTP":115.760209,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":73,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"darax_nsclc","indication":"nsclc","title":"RASolute 301 Phase 3 topline -- daraxonrasib monotherapy in previously treated RAS-mutant NSCLC. SLIPPED (date rolled from 2026-09-01): as of the Q2 2026 update enrollment was still advancing, with the company guiding to substantially complete enrollment during 2026, which puts topline in 2027. No assumption change","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"failTP":109.766083,"successTP":118.207597,"baseTP":115.760209,"swingPct":7,"successMove":2,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":75,"ceilPct":65,"position":"first_in_disease","asset":"darax_pdac","ind":"pdac","area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","somB":9.2,"tamB":12.3}},"lenses":{"comparable":94.48}},"RXRX":{"name":"Recursion Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"AI platform (post-Exscientia merger Nov'24); REC-4881 FAP TUPELO Ph2 53% polyp Wk25 + FDA reg path 2H'26; REC-994 CCM DISCONTINUED post-LTE; Sanofi+Roche; cash $557M to'28","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":530.63,"netCashLocal":557,"cashPS":1.0497,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.89,"bear":0.98,"base":1.16,"bull":1.42,"psychedelic_bull":1.78},"weightedTP":1.15,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.colorectal.fap","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","cns.cerebrovascular.ccm","cns","cns.cerebrovascular","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.lung"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.mek","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.redox.tempol","small_molecule.redox","small_molecule.epigenetic.lsd1","small_molecule.epigenetic"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":80},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.ccm","purity":57},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.fap","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":31},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":28}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.fap","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":77},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":23},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.ccm","purity":1},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.fap","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":6},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular.ccm","purity":1},{"area":"cns.cerebrovascular","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":702,"totalTAM":8.05664,"totalWTD":1.00489318},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"rec4539","indication":"rec4539_sclc","title":"REC-4539 ENLYGHT Ph1 SCLC dose-escalation update (first dose Apr'26)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":22,"success_apr":32,"_source":"https://ir.recursion.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.12974851,"successTP":1.15485729,"baseTP":1.14827736,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"rec4881","indication":"rec4881_fap","title":"REC-4881 FAP: additional Ph2 data at the hereditary-GI Presidential Plenary (Nov 2026) + FDA registrational-design engagement update (H2 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"Recursion Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-05","_confidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/05/3339126/0/en/recursion-reports-second-quarter-financial-results-genentech-options-first-neuroscience-target-into-early-discovery-program.html","failTP":0.971178883,"successTP":1.37178294,"baseTP":1.14827736,"swingPct":17,"successMove":10,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":30,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.15}},"RYTM":{"name":"Rhythm Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Imcivree Q2'26 $71.3M | acquired HO approved US (Mar'26), EU, Japan (Aug'26) | EMANATE Ph3 MISS Mar'26 | bivamelagon oral MC4R Ph3 in HO YE'26 | PWS | cash $331M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":56,"netCashLocal":330.9,"cashPS":5.9089,"tps":{"mega_bear":25.03,"bear":49.74,"base":95.82,"bull":146.15,"psychedelic_bull":162.79},"weightedTP":101.3,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.monogenic_mc4r","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.hypothalamic_obesity","cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.mc4r_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.hypothalamic_obesity","purity":43},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":34},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.monogenic_mc4r","purity":23}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.hypothalamic_obesity","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.monogenic_mc4r","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":15}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic","purity":100},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.hypothalamic_obesity","purity":48},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.monogenic_mc4r","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.genetic.prader_willi","purity":7}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":119,"totalTAM":17.053,"totalWTD":7.788016},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q1 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-19","asset":"acq_ho","indication":"ho","title":"REPORTED: IMCIVREE (setmelanotide) FDA approved for acquired hypothalamic obesity (Mar 19, 2026) -- first & only therapy, adults + children >=4y; based on Ph3 TRANSCEND -19.8% placebo-adjusted BMI reduction (N=142); NEJM publication Jul 8, 2026 (topline first announced Apr 2025)","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"RYTM PR Mar 19 2026 + NEJM Jul 8 2026","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/19/3259502/0/en/Rhythm-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-FDA-Approval-of-IMCIVREE-setmelanotide-for-Patients-with-Acquired-Hypothalamic-Obesity.html","_addedAt":"2026-07-09T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_resolvedDate":"2026-03-19","failTP":86.3463228,"successTP":107.884765,"baseTP":101.298142,"swingPct":22,"successMove":7,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":18},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"acq_ho","indication":"ho","title":"REPORTED: IMCIVREE setmelanotide EU approved for acquired hypothalamic obesity -- CHMP positive opinion Mar 26, 2026; European Commission marketing authorization granted May 1, 2026 (adults + children >=4y; based on Ph3 TRANSCEND -19.8% placebo-adjusted BMI reduction)","type":"ema_approval","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"RYTM Mar 26 + May 1, 2026 PRs","_sourceUrl":"https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2026/03/01/rhythm-pharmaceuticals-q4-earnings-call-highlights.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"EMA CHMP opinion anticipated Q2 2026 per earnings call","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":86.3463228,"successTP":107.884765,"baseTP":101.298142,"swingPct":20,"successMove":6,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"pws","indication":"pws","title":"REPORTED: PWS Phase 2 six-month results: POSITIVE interim (ENDO 2026, Jun 13) -- meaningful BMI reductions (adult -3.11%, ped -3.00%), fat-mass loss w/ lean preservation, hyperphagia+anxiety improvements; reinforces Ph3 MC4R rationale","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":50,"_source":"PR","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/13/3311380/0/en/rhythm-pharmaceuticals-presents-positive-interim-six-month-data-from-phase-2-trial-of-setmelanotide-in-patients-with-prader-willi-syndrome-pws-at-endo-2026.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Six-month PWS Phase 2 data expected first half 2026","_outcome":"success","_resolvedDate":"2026-06-13","failTP":98.1304224,"successTP":102.522586,"baseTP":101.298142,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"bivam","indication":"oral_mc4r","title":"Bivamelagon Phase 3 trial initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":55,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.rhythmtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rhythm-pharmaceuticals-announces-preliminary-unaudited-fourth","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Phase 3 initiation by year-end 2026 pending regulatory feedback","failTP":101.030724,"successTP":101.54306,"baseTP":101.298142,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"acq_ho","indication":"ho","title":"IMCIVREE Japan launch in acquired hypothalamic obesity (MHLW approved Aug 24 2026; NHI price listing pending)","type":"launch","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/24/3349657/0/en/rhythm-pharmaceuticals-announces-mhlw-approval-of-imcivree-setmelanotide-for-patients-with-acquired-hypothalamic-obesity-ho-in-japan.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":78.3000872,"successTP":88.1915294,"baseTP":101.298142,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-11,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":15}],"salesM2025":195,"lenses":{"comparable":122.55}},"SABS":{"name":"SAB Biotherapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Tc Bovine fully-human polyclonal IgG platform: SAB-142 anti-thymocyte globulin SAFEGUARD Ph2b T1D new-onset preservation H2 27; SAB-176 influenza Ph2b BTH+FT | Cash $218M to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":75.8,"netCashLocal":217.6,"cashPS":2.8707,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.62,"bear":6.31,"base":17.59,"bull":31.73,"psychedelic_bull":47.7},"weightedTP":16.86,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","infectious_disease.viral.influenza_antiviral","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.polyclonal_antibody.atg","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.polyclonal_antibody","biologic.recombinant_protein.polyclonal_antibody.anti_influenza"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":188},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":94},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.influenza_antiviral","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":189},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":95},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.influenza_antiviral","purity":11},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":199},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":99},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.influenza_antiviral","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":205,"totalTAM":15.149,"totalWTD":4.961705},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 22 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-22","asset":"sab142","indication":"sab142_t1d","title":"REPORTED: SAB-142 Ph1 data presented ADA/IDS/FOCIS 2026 -- POSITIVE/supportive: all 4 T1D pts showed C-peptide preservation (3/4 super-responder w/ T-cell exhaustion), improved CGM time-in-range; supports registrational SAFEGUARD Ph2b (topline 2H2027). Ph1 supportive color -- no pos change, registrational binary unchanged","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"OCCURRED (positive): additional Ph1 HUMAN clinical + mechanistic data presented at IDS 2026 (Brisbane, Apr 22 2026) and Mar 2026 update -- all 4 T1D participants showed C-peptide preservation, 3/4 super-responder profile w/ T-cell exhaustion, improved CGM time-in-range vs baseline. Soft data milestone; nudged base pos +3 (50->53).","_noteSource":"https://ir.sab.bio/news-releases/news-release-details/sab-bio-presents-additional-clinical-and-mechanistic-data-sab","failTP":1.75685174,"successTP":1.97500872,"baseTP":16.8595126,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-62,"failMove":-63,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":-62,"daysOut":null,"materiality":62},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sab142","indication":"sab142_t1d","title":"SAFEGUARD Ph2b T1D enrollment completion","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.75685174,"successTP":1.97500872,"baseTP":16.8595126,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-26,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":33,"expectedReturn":-27,"daysOut":null,"materiality":27},{"date":"2H 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-30","asset":"sab142","indication":"sab142_t1d","title":"SAFEGUARD Ph2b T1D topline (REGISTRATIONAL BINARY)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.32752731,"successTP":28.7200646,"baseTP":16.8595126,"swingPct":156,"successMove":70,"failMove":-86,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":89}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":16.63,"peRel":1.7342}},"SANA":{"name":"Sana Biotechnology","subtitle":"Hypoimmune (HIP) iPSC platform pivot to SC451 type 1 diabetes (IND + Ph1 late'26; Mayo Clinic collab); SC291 oncology + SC379 SUSPENDED Nov'25; cash $129M pro forma, runway mid'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":278.29,"netCashLocal":129,"cashPS":0.4635,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.27,"bear":0.33,"base":0.49,"bull":0.96,"psychedelic_bull":2.03},"weightedTP":0.54,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.ipsc_islet_hip","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":100}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":840,"totalTAM":14.275,"totalWTD":1.51886},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"sc451","indication":"sc451_t1d","title":"SC451 IND filing + Phase 1 first patient dosed (T1D HIP iPSC islet)","type":"phase1_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":45,"_source":"https://ir.sana.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sana-biotechnology-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.319443483,"successTP":0.82970814,"baseTP":0.543508394,"swingPct":19,"successMove":11,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":11,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.86}},"SDZ":{"name":"Sandoz Group AG","subtitle":"Novartis spin-off (Oct 2023) | FY25 ~$10.7B: Generics ~$7.2B + Biosimilars ~$3.5B (Hyrimoz/Releuko/Wyost/Jubbonti) | EU + US biosimilar leader","currency":"CHF","country":"CH","region":"EUROPE.CH","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":430,"netCashLocal":-3168,"cashPS":-7.3674,"tps":{"mega_bear":26.36,"bear":41.93,"base":58.85,"bull":89.74,"psychedelic_bull":137.41},"weightedTP":61.79,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology.demyelinating","endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","oncology","oncology.supportive_care","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.generalized","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.sdz_sdz_eu_generics_other","_established_products","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","_established_products.sdz_sdz_us_generics_other","_established_products.sdz_sdz_intl_generics_other","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23p40","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_rankl","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_a4_integrin","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone.gh","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.hormone","_diversified.biosimilars.mixed","_diversified","_diversified.biosimilars","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified.branded","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.vegf_trap","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":62},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":31},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":16},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_intl_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":63},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":32},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_intl_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":29},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":28},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":22},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.gh_deficiency","purity":22},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":16},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":11},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":3},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sdz_sdz_intl_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":3,"totalTAM":765.053,"totalWTD":745.641405},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sdz_us_generics","indication":"sdz_us_generics_outpatient_generic","title":"Aflibercept biosimilar US ramp + EU coverage","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Sandoz FY25 release","_confidence":"high","failTP":61.7862376,"successTP":61.7862376,"baseTP":61.7862376,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"pembro_biosim","indication":"nsclc_pembro_biosim","title":"Pembrolizumab biosimilar BLA filing (post-2028 EU LOE)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Sandoz pipeline disclosure","_confidence":"medium","failTP":61.3639495,"successTP":62.0784818,"baseTP":61.7862376,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":51,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":9897,"lenses":{"comparable":62.04,"eeRel":0.6479,"peRel":0.5465}},"SEPN":{"name":"Septerna","subtitle":"GPCR oral platform: SEP-631 MRGPRX2 Ph2b CSU dropped Aug'26 (signal-finding mast-cell studies instead); SEP-479 oral PTH1R Ph1 data Q1'27; Novo $2.2B deal; cash $517M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":44.9,"netCashLocal":516.5,"cashPS":11.5033,"tps":{"mega_bear":9.72,"bear":10.36,"base":12.16,"bull":15.31,"psychedelic_bull":18.33},"weightedTP":12.53,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","endocrine","endocrine.parathyroid","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.mrgprx2_nam","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.pth1r_agonist","small_molecule.gpcr.metabolic_collab"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":185},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":93},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":190},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":95},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":7},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid.hypoparathyroidism","purity":116},{"area":"endocrine.parathyroid","purity":58},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":44},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.csu","purity":39},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":22},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":20}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":374,"totalTAM":155.296,"totalWTD":32.7812939},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-13","asset":"sep479","indication":"sep479_hypopara","title":"REPORTED: SEP-479 Phase 1 initiated Apr 13 2026 (oral PTH1R agonist, hypoparathyroidism)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":42,"success_apr":52,"_source":"https://ir.septerna.com/news-releases/news-release-details/septerna-announces-initiation-phase-1-clinical-trial-sep-479","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Septerna dosed first participants in SEP-479 Phase 1 on 2026-04-13 (up to 150 healthy volunteers, SAD/MAD); SAD/MAD data guided late 2026/early 2027.","failTP":11.2227502,"successTP":13.6310186,"baseTP":12.5344865,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":16,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Aug 10 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"sep631","indication":"sep631_csu","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-10: SEP-631 Ph2b CSU readout CANCELLED -- \"in lieu of a Phase 2b study in CSU\" Septerna is evaluating capital-efficient signal-finding studies in mast cell-driven diseases (Q2 PR); bounded -15 pos, not a readout","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://stocktitan.net/news/SEPN/","_confidence":"high","failTP":12.1751319,"successTP":14.1813665,"baseTP":12.5344865,"swingPct":16,"successMove":13,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":13.64}},"SERVIER":{"name":"Les Laboratoires Servier (private; foundation-controlled)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- French foundation-controlled (Fondation Internationale de Recherche Servier) | Vorasidenib (IDH1/2 glioma) + Lonsurf metastatic GI + cardio franchise","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.aml.idh1_2_mut","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology.gi","oncology.sarcoma.bone","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","oncology.brain","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","oncology.gi.gastric","cardio_metabolic.vascular.chronic_venous_disease","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.vascular","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.idh1_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.enzyme.idh1_idh2_dual_inhibitor","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.liposomal_irinotecan","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.nucleoside_analog","small_molecule.pleiotropic.venotonic_flavonoid","small_molecule.pleiotropic","small_molecule.ion_channel.hcn_blocker","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.enzyme.ace_inhibitor","small_molecule.ion_channel.k_atp_inhibitor"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":115},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":57},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular.chronic_venous_disease","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.idh1_2_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.bone","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":115},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":57},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":19},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular.chronic_venous_disease","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.idh1_2_mut","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.bone","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular.chronic_venous_disease","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":22},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular","purity":20},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.idh1_2_mut","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure.hfref","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.heart_failure","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.bone","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_neg","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":9,"rarePurityWtd":9,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":137.1818,"totalWTD":137.1818},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":2800},"SGMT":{"name":"Sagimet Biosciences Inc.","subtitle":"Denifanstat oral FASN inhibitor: strategic pivot to DERMATOLOGY -- US acne registrational Ph3 H2'26 (China Ascletis Ph3 HIT); MASH Ph3 shelved pending BD; TVB-3567 Ph1 | Cash $257.6M into 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":62.16,"netCashLocal":257.6,"cashPS":4.1441,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.07,"bear":4.31,"base":7.62,"bull":12.4,"psychedelic_bull":17.5},"weightedTP":6.87,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","_platform.fasn_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.fasn","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":189},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":95},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5},{"area":"_platform.fasn_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":189},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":95},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5},{"area":"_platform.fasn_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":176},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":88},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":24},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":12},{"area":"_platform.fasn_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":223,"totalTAM":25.178,"totalWTD":7.80518},"catalysts":[{"date":"Dec 2025","dateSort":"2025-12-10","asset":"deni","indication":"deni_acne","title":"REPORTED 2025-12-10: Ascletis China NMPA NDA filing (acne, partner-led) -- NDA ACCEPTED by NMPA","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://sagimetbiosciences.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sagimets-license-partner-ascletis-announced-acceptance-new-drug","failTP":6.20681655,"successTP":6.69651876,"baseTP":6.86718661,"swingPct":2,"successMove":0,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"deni","indication":"deni_mash","title":"Denifanstat MASH partnership / licensing announcement (gating Ph3 restart)","type":"partnership","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.26928922,"successTP":12.0152672,"baseTP":6.86718661,"swingPct":51,"successMove":30,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"deni","indication":"deni_acne","title":"Denifanstat US oral acne Ph3 initiation (post-IND)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":6.20681655,"successTP":6.69651876,"baseTP":6.86718661,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"deni","indication":"deni_acne","title":"China NMPA approval decision on denifanstat (ASC40) acne NDA (Ascletis; accepted Dec 2025) -- date ESTIMATED from a ~12-18 month NMPA review; no company guidance","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.20681655,"successTP":6.69651876,"baseTP":6.86718661,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":31,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.23}},"SION":{"name":"Sionna Therapeutics","subtitle":"NBD1 CF: SION-719 Ph2a MISSED Aug'26 (add-on dropped); SION-451 + SION-2222 to AscenSION CF Ph2a (start Q1 2027); 46% RIF, runway into 2H 2029; cash $268.3M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":45.3,"netCashLocal":268.3,"cashPS":5.9227,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.43,"bear":6.58,"base":9.85,"bull":12.85,"psychedelic_bull":16.42},"weightedTP":9.39,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","respiratory","respiratory.genetic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.cftr_nbd1_stabilizer","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":100}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":320,"totalTAM":33.3,"totalWTD":7.937055},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 10, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"sion719","indication":"sion719_cf","title":"REPORTED: SION-719 PreciSION CF Ph2a topline Aug 10 2026 -- MISS. Key activity endpoint not met: -1.0 mmol/L mean placebo-adjusted sweat chloride change (p=0.7) in 15 F508del-homozygous adults added to Trikafta. Well tolerated, no SAEs. Sionna will NOT advance SION-719 as an add-on to SoC","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://investors.sionnatx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Key activity endpoint (sweat chloride) missed outright. Company noted higher-than-expected sweat chloride variability and differential Trikafta exposure between crossover periods as possible confounders, which will inform SION-451 dual-combo decisions. pos/apr moved to the pre-declared fail_pos/fail_apr (22/30 base).","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/10/3341683/0/en/sionna-therapeutics-reports-topline-data-from-two-development-programs-in-cystic-fibrosis-and-provides-corporate-update.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":9.01980594,"successTP":14.7952853,"baseTP":9.39456747,"swingPct":61,"successMove":57,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"Aug 10, 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"sion451","indication":"sion451_cf","title":"REPORTED: SION-451 Ph1 dual-combo data Aug 10 2026 -- objectives MET. SION-451 + SION-2222 (TMD1 corrector) and + SION-109 (ICL4 corrector) in 120 healthy volunteers both achieved safety, tolerability + PK objectives; SION-2222 pairing preferred; 2 participants discontinued on elevated LFTs. Next steps under evaluation","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://investors.sionnatx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Ph1 met its pre-declared safety/tolerability/PK objectives, so moved toward the declared success_pos/success_apr (70/78). Held slightly below full success at base 65/74 because the company has NOT committed to a Ph2 start (\"evaluating next steps\", \"preserve capital\") and two LFT discontinuations were reported.","_outcomeSource":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/10/3341683/0/en/sionna-therapeutics-reports-topline-data-from-two-development-programs-in-cystic-fibrosis-and-provides-corporate-update.html","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":6.31597758,"successTP":11.9251966,"baseTP":9.39456747,"swingPct":42,"successMove":19,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":56,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"sion451","indication":"sion451_cf","title":"AscenSION CF Ph2a initiation -- SION-451 + SION-2222 dual combo (open-label, F508del-homozygous adults off Trikafta 28 days; sweat chloride)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3361527/0/en/sionna-therapeutics-announces-plans-to-advance-sion-451-sion-2222-dual-combination-into-phase-2a-proof-of-concept-trial.html","failTP":5.77639391,"successTP":6.24660794,"baseTP":9.39456747,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-10,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":56,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":12.8}},"SLDB":{"name":"Solid Biosciences","subtitle":"SGT-003 AAV microdystrophin DMD: Ph3 IMPACT dosing since May'26; FDA AA-pathway meeting SLIPPED to Q4'26; INSPIRE Ph1/2 58% microdystrophin, 53 pts dosed; SGT-501 CPVT preIND; cash $381M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":107.23,"netCashLocal":377.7,"cashPS":3.5223,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.54,"bear":2.92,"base":4.92,"bull":7.41,"psychedelic_bull":9.95},"weightedTP":4.49,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","cardio_metabolic.arrhythmia.cpvt","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.arrhythmia"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.microdystrophin_dmd","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.cardiac_casq2"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.arrhythmia.cpvt","purity":82},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":59},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":59},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":59},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.arrhythmia","purity":41}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":81},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":81},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":81},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.arrhythmia.cpvt","purity":38},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.arrhythmia","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":95},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":95},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":95},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.arrhythmia.cpvt","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.arrhythmia","purity":5}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":284,"totalTAM":5.868,"totalWTD":1.52781},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"sgt003","indication":"sgt003_dmd","title":"SGT-003 DSMB safety review (AAV platform overhang readout)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.52368893,"successTP":2.61373285,"baseTP":4.48624617,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-21,"failMove":-22,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-21,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sgt003","indication":"sgt003_dmd","title":"SGT-003 FDA meeting on potential Accelerated Approval pathway + INSPIRE Ph1/2 data package (SLIPPED from mid'26; company guided late Q4 2026 on Aug 6 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":58,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://investors.solidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/solid-biosciences-announces-positive-feedback-type-c-meeting-fda","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.31720572,"successTP":7.47857261,"baseTP":4.48624617,"swingPct":47,"successMove":34,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sgt003","indication":"sgt003_dmd","title":"SGT-003 INSPIRE Ph1/2 expansion cohort microdystrophin + cardiac biomarker data -- ROLLED: no Q3 release; company guides only to the late-Q4 FDA AA meeting (Q2 PR Aug 6 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.59756605,"successTP":6.85588464,"baseTP":4.48624617,"swingPct":95,"successMove":53,"failMove":-42,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":43},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"sgt501","indication":"sgt501_cpvt","title":"SGT-501 IND filing (CPVT AAV gene therapy)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.38739975,"successTP":4.44932219,"baseTP":4.48624617,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"sgt003","indication":"sgt003_dmd","title":"SGT-003 IMPACT Ph3 confirmatory interim functional data","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.52368893,"successTP":2.61373285,"baseTP":4.48624617,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-42,"failMove":-44,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-43,"daysOut":null,"materiality":43},{"date":"Q2 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"sgt003","indication":"sgt003_dmd","title":"SGT-003 BLA submission post-IMPACT confirmatory","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"low","failTP":2.52368893,"successTP":2.61373285,"baseTP":4.48624617,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-8,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-9,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.49}},"SLS":{"name":"SELLAS Life Sciences","subtitle":"Galinpepimut-S (GPS) WT1 vaccine Ph3 REGAL AML CR2 -- still approaching the 80th event as of Q2'26; topline guided Q4 2026; SLS009 CDK9 Ph2 1L AML ASXL1mt (28 enrolled); cash $138.3M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":201.9,"netCashLocal":138.3,"cashPS":0.685,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.5,"bear":1.12,"base":2.24,"bull":3.29,"psychedelic_bull":4.02},"weightedTP":1.76,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit"],"modalities":["vaccine.therapeutic.peptide.wt1","vaccine","vaccine.therapeutic","vaccine.therapeutic.peptide","small_molecule.kinase.cdk9","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":70},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":30}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":89},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.rr","purity":96},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_unfit","purity":4}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":107,"totalTAM":3.05998,"totalWTD":1.48001095},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"gps","indication":"gps_aml","title":"Galinpepimut-S (GPS) REGAL Ph3 AML CR2 final OS analysis (80th event) -- ROLLED from Aug to Q4 2026 per Q2 guidance","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":22,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SLS/sellas-life-sciences-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-b4qgc82qcjz1.html","_confidence":"high","_note":"NOT YET OCCURRED as of Jun 24 2026. REGAL is event-driven; final OS analysis triggers at the 80th death event. Event accrual: 72 events Dec 26 2025 -> 78 events May 11 2026 (SELLAS remains fully blinded). With only 2 events outstanding and a slowing accrual rate, the 80th-event trigger slipped past the original mid-2026 estimate; pushed dateSort to Q3 2026. No outcome assigned (binary, still pending). Sources: SELLAS Q1 2026 results (stocktitan); SELLAS REGAL update PRs (ir.sellaslifesciences.com).","failTP":0.464482144,"successTP":3.01201129,"baseTP":1.75852564,"swingPct":145,"successMove":71,"failMove":-74,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":35,"daysOut":null,"materiality":78},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-20","asset":"sls009","indication":"sls009_aml","title":"SLS009 (tambiciclib) Ph2 1L AML ASXL1mt topline (28/80 enrolled at Q2'26)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://ir.sellaslifesciences.com/news/News-Details/2026/SELLAS-Life-Sciences-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Corporate-Update/default.aspx","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.66212567,"successTP":1.86404448,"baseTP":1.75852564,"swingPct":11,"successMove":6,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"gps","indication":"gps_aml","title":"GPS BLA submission (post-REGAL OS readout)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SLS/sellas-life-sciences-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-b4qgc82qcjz1.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":0.655369727,"successTP":2.91736702,"baseTP":1.75852564,"swingPct":26,"successMove":13,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.25}},"SMMT":{"name":"Summit Therapeutics","subtitle":"Ivonescimab PD-1xVEGF (ex-China lic Akeso): 2L EGFRm NSCLC PDUFA Nov 14'26; HARMONi-3 non-squam PFS 1H'27; HARMONi-2 China OS WIN vs pembro MONO Sep'26 (de-risks HARMONi-7); HARMONi-6 OS HR 0.66","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":778,"netCashLocal":690.7,"cashPS":0.8878,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.68,"bear":4.23,"base":7.39,"bull":10.86,"psychedelic_bull":14.12},"weightedTP":6.87,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","oncology","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_vegf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":92},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":97},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":29},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.egfr","purity":43},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":6}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":126,"totalTAM":122.438,"totalWTD":54.1725736},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_nsclc_1l_squam","title":"REPORTED: HARMONi-6 China OS POSITIVE (1L squam, ivo+chemo vs tislelizumab+chemo) -- OS HR 0.66; ASCO 2026 Plenary + Lancet (first China-originated drug in ASCO Plenary)","type":"conference_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://smmttx.com/news/press-releases/news-details/2025/Ivonescimab-with-Chemotherapy-Reduced-the-Risk-of-Disease-Progression-or-Death-by-40-Compared-to-Tislelizumab-PD-1-Inhibitor-Plus-Chemotherapy-in-1L-Treatment-of-Patients-with-Squamous-NSCLC-in-the-HARMONi-6-Study-Conducted-by-Akeso-in-China/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"RESOLVED 2026-07-01: HARMONi-6 met OS (HR 0.66) at ASCO 2026 Plenary, published in The Lancet. HIT confirms ivonescimab efficacy in 1L squamous NSCLC -- BUT this is a CHINA readout (Akeso, vs tislelizumab); this config's ivo_nsclc_1l_squam indication values the EX-CHINA opportunity, where the direct HARMONi-3 squamous cohort MISSED its interim (May 2026). So applied as a BOUNDED mechanism-validation nudge (+3 pts base/bull/psy pos & apr), NOT the pre-declared full 70/78 -- full application would contradict the ex-China HARMONi-3 squam interim miss already encoded. See FLAG: whether to fully re-rate ex-China squam is a user call.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":6.64085309,"successTP":7.3460815,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":9,"successMove":6,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Jul 22 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-22","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_nsclc_1l_squam","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-22: updated analysis shows CONSISTENT, favorable ivonescimab + chemo overall survival across Western AND Asian patients; separately, Arcus clinical-trial collaboration to test casdatifan + ivonescimab","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_note":"Two same-day items, both treated as supportive colour -- NO assumption change. (1) An updated OS analysis reported consistent, favourable results in Western as well as Asian patients, which addresses the single biggest bear argument on ivonescimab (that the China-run OS benefit would not translate to a Western population). It is an updated cut of an existing dataset rather than a new randomised readout, so it is tier-3 evidence: narrative support only. (2) Arcus Biosciences and Summit entered a clinical-trial collaboration to evaluate casdatifan (HIF-2a) combined with ivonescimab -- pipeline optionality, no economics disclosed that would move this config. The dominant near-term binary remains the 2026-11-14 PDUFA in 2L EGFRm NSCLC, and the value driver remains the HARMONi-3 1L non-squamous PFS readout guided to Apr 2027. Sources: Summit PRs 2026-07-22; Q2 2026 results 2026-07-23.","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"success","_resolvedDate":"2026-07-31","_outcomeSource":"freshness review 2026-07-31 (title already marked resolved; _outcome backfilled)","failTP":6.75755848,"successTP":7.28791942,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":7,"successMove":5,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_crc","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-24: partner Akeso HARMONi-GI1 Ph3 (1L biliary tract cancer, China) MEETS primary OS endpoint vs durvalumab+chemo -- first ivonescimab Ph3 win outside NSCLC; read-through for Summit GI programme (HARMONi-GI3 CRC), no Summit-territory data","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/ivonescimab-plus-chemotherapy-demonstrates-significant-overall-survival-benefit-versus-durvalumab-plus-chemotherapy-in-first-line-biliary-tract-cancer-harmoni-gi1-meets-primary-endpoint","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Partner-trial read-through in a different tumor and a different territory (Akeso China single-region). Treated as tier-3 supportive evidence: narrative + events only, NO pos/apr change to Summit own CRC or NSCLC legs, which rest on HARMONi-3/-7 in Summit territory.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":6.55228343,"successTP":7.12612335,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":9,"successMove":4,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-02","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_nsclc_1l_pdl1_mono","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-02: partner Akeso HARMONi-2 (China, 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC) MEETS OS key secondary vs pembrolizumab MONOtherapy at pre-specified IDMC interim -- read-through to Summit's global HARMONi-7 mono trial; HR/median OS to be presented at an upcoming congress","type":"phase3_data","fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_note":"2026-09-03 (second pass, user-authorised): the initial bounded surprise move (base pos 68 / apr 72) was taken to the recommended FULL value, base pos 75 / apr 80. Rationale: HARMONi-2 tested ivonescimab MONOtherapy against pembrolizumab MONOtherapy in 1L PD-L1-positive advanced NSCLC and won on OS -- that is HARMONi-7's exact comparison, so the mechanism-and-setting risk HARMONi-7 was carrying is now largely retired. What remains is population transfer (China-only enrolment) and an undisclosed hazard ratio, which is why base stays a few points under HARMONi-7's own success_pos of 78 rather than being pushed to it.","failTP":5.55547863,"successTP":7.61780388,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":30,"successMove":11,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_nsclc_1l_nonsquam","title":"HARMONi-3 non-squamous cohort enrollment complete (slipped end-Q2 -> H2 2026; PFS still 1H 2027)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260430114442/en/Summit-Therapeutics-Reports-Financial-Results-and-Operational-Progress-for-the-First-Quarter-Ended-March-31-2026","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Date roll 2026-06-30 -> 2026-09-30: Oct'25 SMMT guidance moved non-squam enrollment completion from end-Q2 2026 to H2 2026 (PFS still 1H 2027). Non-binary process milestone, no assumption change.","failTP":5.6409052,"successTP":8.07202395,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"Nov 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-14","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_nsclc_egfr_2l","title":"Ivonescimab + chemo 2L EGFRm NSCLC FDA PDUFA action date","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001599298/000159929826000006/a2026_prx0129xfdablaacce.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.83227878,"successTP":8.68954218,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":71,"successMove":27,"failMove":-44,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":23,"daysOut":null,"materiality":39},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_nsclc_1l_squam","title":"HARMONi-3 squamous cohort FINAL PFS + interim OS (vs pembro+chemo, global) -- interim PFS bar missed Apr 2026, study continued; final guided H2 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://smmttx.com/news/press-releases/default.aspx","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.5966321,"successTP":7.22219806,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":33,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_nsclc_1l_nonsquam","title":"HARMONi-3 1L non-squamous NSCLC PFS readout (vs pembro+chemo, US/EU territory)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260430114442/en/Summit-Therapeutics-Reports-Financial-Results-and-Operational-Progress-for-the-First-Quarter-Ended-March-31-2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":4.88917591,"successTP":8.63191473,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":55,"successMove":26,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-30","asset":"ivonescimab","indication":"ivo_nsclc_1l_pdl1_mono","title":"HARMONi-7 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC monotherapy interim/readout vs pembro mono","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://smmttx.com/clinical-trials/clinical-trials-overview/default.aspx","_confidence":"medium","_note":"2026-09-03: left OPEN and un-resolved by design. HARMONi-2 is a separate China-only study; this catalyst is Summit's own global monotherapy trial. Its success_pos 78 / success_apr 82 now sit only ~3pts above the live base assumption, so a HARMONi-7 win is a modest confirmation from here and a MISS is the real asymmetry -- fail_pos 30 is the number to watch.","failTP":5.53072289,"successTP":7.66716325,"baseTP":6.86870045,"swingPct":31,"successMove":12,"failMove":-19,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":7.38},"readouts":[{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"ivo_nsclc_1l_squam","ds":"2026-07-22","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.6173904,"lo":1.97816624,"hi":12.5469038,"pBeatBest":0.11375,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"ivo_nsclc_1l_squam","ds":"2026-06-01","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.62200384,"lo":1.98581817,"hi":12.5431517,"pBeatBest":0.1126,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"ivo_nsclc_1l_nonsquam","ds":"2027-04-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":7.42276597,"lo":2.6786135,"hi":12.7237466,"pBeatBest":0.15655,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"ivo_nsclc_1l_pdl1_mono","ds":"2027-10-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"own","med":10.431303,"lo":3.24481821,"hi":13.4652234,"pBeatBest":0.5242,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"ivo_crc","ds":"2026-08-24","area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":1.38970148,"lo":0,"hi":14.4700774,"pBeatBest":0.16265,"bestDrug":"trifluridine/tipiracil + bev","bestValue":6.3},{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"ivo_nsclc_1l_pdl1_mono","ds":"2026-09-02","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"own","med":10.411914,"lo":3.1710779,"hi":13.5007957,"pBeatBest":0.52135,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3},{"a":"ivonescimab","ind":"ivo_nsclc_1l_squam","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.39739904,"lo":2.33382186,"hi":12.003,"pBeatBest":0.09095,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"SMNR":{"name":"Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"SP-102 (SEMDEXA) dexamethasone viscous gel for lumbosacral radicular pain: CLEAR-1 Ph3 HIT 2022, CLEAR-2 open-label safety study ongoing, NDA 2027 | Going concern; SCLX 87.5%","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":230.2,"netCashLocal":-22.96,"cashPS":-0.0997,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":0.47,"bull":0.96,"psychedelic_bull":1.31},"weightedTP":0.4,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.disc_spine.radicular_pain","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.disc_spine"],"modalities":["small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.corticosteroid_dexamethasone","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.disc_spine.radicular_pain","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.disc_spine","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.disc_spine.radicular_pain","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.disc_spine","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.disc_spine.radicular_pain","purity":200},{"area":"musculoskeletal.disc_spine","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":74,"totalTAM":1.7175,"totalWTD":0.98928},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sp102","indication":"sp102_sciatica","title":"SP-102 CLEAR-2 enrollment milestone (700pt target)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0.398709354,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-30,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":-30,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"sp102","indication":"sp102_sciatica","title":"SP-102 CLEAR-2 open-label ~700pt safety study completion (safety database for NDA; FDA Type C Nov 2023: CLEAR-1 alone suffices for efficacy)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0.398709354,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-30,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":-30,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"sp102","indication":"sp102_sciatica","title":"SP-102 NDA submission (505(b)(2))","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":0,"successTP":0,"baseTP":0.398709354,"swingPct":0,"successMove":-20,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":58,"expectedReturn":-20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.34}},"SNDL":{"name":"SNDL Inc","subtitle":"Canadian cannabis (retail+ops) + liquor retail (Alcanna): Q1'26 rev $196M (-4.4%); cash $213M; 193 cannabis stores (Value Buds/Spiritleaf/Cost Cannabis); MCap $381M","currency":"USD","country":"CA","region":"AMERICAS.CA","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":260.3,"netCashLocal":213.4,"cashPS":0.8198,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.83,"bear":10.02,"base":12.18,"bull":16.6,"psychedelic_bull":20.66},"weightedTP":11.53,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.consumer.retail_diversified","_diversified","_diversified.consumer"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":9,"totalWTD":9},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sndl_diversified","indication":"sndl_retail_portfolio","title":"SNDL FY 2026 stabilization + potential US cannabis reform (DEA Schedule III)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/29/3283596/0/en/SNDL-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-and-Operational-Results.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":8.20871938,"successTP":15.7924882,"baseTP":11.528846,"swingPct":20,"successMove":11,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":12.58}},"SNDX":{"name":"Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Revuforj (revumenib) menin inhibitor KMT2A-r/NPM1m AML + Niktimvo (axatilimab, Incyte 50/50) cGVHD | TTM revenue $252M ($180M Revuforj + $72M Niktimvo collab) | Q2'26 +92% YoY","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":89.4,"netCashLocal":325.1,"cashPS":3.6365,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.23,"bear":14.87,"base":25.63,"bull":35.49,"psychedelic_bull":43.72},"weightedTP":26.42,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.leukemia.aml.kmt2a_r","oncology","oncology.leukemia","oncology.leukemia.aml","oncology.leukemia.aml.npm1m","oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","immunology.transplant.cgvhd","immunology","immunology.transplant","respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor.menin","small_molecule","small_molecule.protein_protein_inhibitor","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_csf1r","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":88},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":79},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":44},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.npm1m","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.kmt2a_r","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":88},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":79},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":44},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.npm1m","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.kmt2a_r","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":91},{"area":"oncology.leukemia","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml","purity":47},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.kmt2a_r","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.1l_fit","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.leukemia.aml.npm1m","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":8}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":56,"rarePurityWtd":56,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":23.3753,"totalWTD":23.3753},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"niktimvo","indication":"nikt_ipf","title":"Axatilimab IPF Ph2 MAXPIRe topline + frontline cGVHD data","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"SNDX pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":25.206057,"successTP":26.7371756,"baseTP":26.4183237,"swingPct":6,"successMove":1,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"revuforj","indication":"rev_frontline","title":"Revuforj frontline AML pivotal readouts (EVOLVE-2/REVEAL)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"SNDX pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":23.1593751,"successTP":27.3255171,"baseTP":26.4183237,"swingPct":15,"successMove":3,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12}],"salesM2025":167,"lenses":{"comparable":28.5},"readouts":[{"a":"niktimvo","ind":"nikt_ipf","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":100.492796,"lo":-68.1961063,"hi":271.380536,"pBeatBest":0.1424,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193}]},"SNY":{"name":"Sanofi S.A.","subtitle":"EUR43.6B 2025 (+10% CER); Q2'26 sales EUR11.6B (+17.8%), FY26 guide upgraded to ~10% CER | Dupixent EUR5,154M in Q2 (+37.6%) | Tolebrutinib EU approval | Amlitelimab AD discontinued Jul'26","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1218,"netCashLocal":-17226,"cashPS":-14.1429,"tps":{"mega_bear":32.07,"bear":50.02,"base":83.81,"bull":131.09,"psychedelic_bull":177.9},"weightedTP":92.68,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.gpp","infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","oncology","oncology.plasma_cell","oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","immunology.transplant.cgvhd","immunology.transplant","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","hematology.tma.attp","hematology.tma","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology.demyelinating","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","infectious_disease.vaccines.meningococcal","infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","infectious_disease.vaccines.polio_hib","infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","cns.pain.migraine","cns","cns.pain","immunology.autoimmune.egpa","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il4r","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_rsv_long_acting","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.factor_viii_fc_xten","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd38","small_molecule.kinase.rock2","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.gaa","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.smase","biologic.antibody.single_domain.anti_vwf","biologic.antibody.single_domain","small_molecule.enzyme.dhodh","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pcsk9","small_molecule.gpcr.p2y12","small_molecule.gpcr","peptide.hormone_analog.insulin_basal","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","vaccine.protein_subunit.diversified","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.diversified_ert","_diversified.consumer.consumer_health_global","_diversified","_diversified.consumer","_diversified.branded.cv_legacy","_diversified.branded","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands","small_molecule.kinase.btk_covalent","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd40l","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il33","small_molecule.kinase.btk_reversible","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ox40l"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":46},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":36},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":23},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":17},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":11},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":8},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":2},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.meningococcal","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.gpp","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.tma.attp","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.polio_hib","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.tma","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.egpa","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":40},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":26},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":26},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":23},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":21},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":18},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":9},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":9},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":7},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":6},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":5},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.mps_iiia","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma.2l_3l","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.plasma_cell.myeloma","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis.antiplatelet","purity":4},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.prurigo_nodularis","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.transplant.cgvhd","purity":3},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.influenza","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.thrombosis","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.meningococcal","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.topical","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.gpp","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.tma.attp","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.pertussis","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.polio_hib","purity":1},{"area":"hematology.tma","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.egpa","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":14,"rarePurityWtd":17,"optionality":21,"totalTAM":406.77355,"totalWTD":335.351727},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2024","dateSort":"2024-09-27","asset":"dupixent","indication":"dupi_copd","title":"RESOLVED 2024-09-27: Dupixent COPD (eosinophilic phenotype) FDA APPROVED -- phantom future-dated catalyst corrected 2026-09-14","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"SNY pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":92.6775449,"successTP":92.6775449,"baseTP":92.6775449,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2025","dateSort":"2025-08-29","asset":"rilzabrutinib","indication":"rilza_itp","title":"RESOLVED 2025-08-29: Rilzabrutinib (Wayrilz) FDA APPROVED for persistent/chronic ITP (post LUNA-3); EU Dec 2025, Japan Jun 2026 -- phantom future-dated catalyst corrected 2026-09-14","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":82,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"SNY pipeline","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":92.3407485,"successTP":92.8421409,"baseTP":92.6775449,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":87,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"tolebrutinib","indication":"tole_spms","title":"REPORTED: Tolebrutinib HERCULES nrSPMS FDA filing (accepted; then CRL Dec 2025)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room/press-releases/2025/2025-12-24-06-00-00-3210238","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"FDA accepted the tolebrutinib nrSPMS submission (HERCULES Ph3 showed 31% delay in disability progression vs placebo), but issued a Complete Response Letter in Dec 2025 -- no U.S. approval yet as of 2026-07-06. EU approved (Cenrifki) June 2026. Filing milestone itself is complete; U.S. approval pending resolution of the CRL. Minor thesis impact for mega-cap Sanofi; no valuation change applied.","failTP":89.793103,"successTP":95.2307907,"baseTP":92.6775449,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":61,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Jul 24 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-24","asset":"amlitelimab","indication":"amli_ad","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED 2026-07-24 -- Amlitelimab (OX40L mAb) DISCONTINUED in atopic dermatitis; Sanofi will not file globally despite ESTUARY LTE maintenance of response","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":0,"success_apr":0,"_source":"Sanofi press release 2026-07-24 (news.sanofi.us / globenewswire)","_confidence":"high","failTP":92.6775449,"successTP":92.6775449,"baseTP":92.6775449,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"tolebrutinib","indication":"tole_spms","title":"Tolebrutinib US regulatory path post-CRL (resubmission decision for nrSPMS; EU approved Jun 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001121404/000119312526280319/d118903dex993.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":87.7398703,"successTP":90.1204744,"baseTP":92.6775449,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":61,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":42385,"lenses":{"comparable":105.72,"eeRel":1.7222,"peRel":0.8008}},"SOBI":{"name":"Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB","subtitle":"Swedish rare-disease pharma | Altuvoct haemophilia A (+164% H1 26) + Beyfortus + Doptelet + Gamifant + Aspaveli + Vonjo | pozdeutinurad gout Ph3 | net debt SEK 16.1B","currency":"SEK","country":"SE","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":347.29,"netCashLocal":-16126,"cashPS":-46.4338,"tps":{"mega_bear":177.03,"bear":293.95,"base":512.04,"bull":781.66,"psychedelic_bull":1388.27},"weightedTP":573.79,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","hematology","hematology.hemostasis","hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","hematology.immune_cytopenias","immunology.autoinflammatory.periodic_fever","immunology","immunology.autoinflammatory","hematology.hemolytic.pnh","hematology.hemolytic","oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","oncology","oncology.myeloid","oncology.myeloid.mpn","cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","oncology.lymphoma.ctcl","oncology.lymphoma"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_infective","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.clotting_factor_fc","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","small_molecule.gpcr.tpo_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il1ra","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","peptide.protein_binder.complement_c3","peptide","peptide.protein_binder","small_molecule.kinase.jak2_inhibitor","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ifng","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.factor_viii_fc_xten","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.galnac","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","small_molecule.transporter.urat1","small_molecule.transporter","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.uricase","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_kir3dl2"],"focus":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":67},{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory.periodic_fever","purity":40},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":34},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":12},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":9},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":8},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ctcl","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":69},{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory.periodic_fever","purity":41},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":35},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":7},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ctcl","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy.gout","purity":156},{"area":"musculoskeletal.crystal_arthropathy","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.ctcl","purity":44},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":22},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.rsv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis.hemophilia_a","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemostasis","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.itp","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory.periodic_fever","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoinflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic.pnh","purity":0},{"area":"hematology.hemolytic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn.mf","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.myeloid","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.myeloid.mpn","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.shtg","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":54,"rarePurityWtd":54,"optionality":3,"totalTAM":87.4925,"totalWTD":85.0989965},"catalysts":[{"date":"Reported","dateSort":"2026-02-28","asset":"aspaveli","indication":"aspaveli_pnh_c3g","title":"REPORTED (success): Aspaveli/Empaveli APPROVED in C3G + primary IC-MPGN -- FDA approved Empaveli (Apellis, US) Jul 28 2025; European Commission approved Aspaveli for adults and adolescents 12-17 after the Dec 2025 positive CHMP opinion","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sobi.com/en/press-releases/sobi-receives-european-commission-approval-aspavelir-pegcetacoplan-treatment-c3g-and-primary-ic-mpgn-2418695","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_rationale":"Sep 2 2026 freshness check: this config still carried the C3G approval as a pending Q3'26 binary, but both actions had already occurred -- FDA approval of Empaveli in C3G/primary IC-MPGN on Jul 28 2025 (VALIANT Ph3, 68% proteinuria reduction) and European Commission approval of Aspaveli after the Dec 2025 CHMP positive opinion. No assumption change: aspaveli is a commercial asset already carried at pos/apr 100 in every scenario, and fail_/success_ were both 100 -- the value question is the ex-US C3G launch ramp, which lives in pen, not in pos/apr.","failTP":573.790379,"successTP":573.790379,"baseTP":573.790379,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"beyfortus_rsv","indication":"beyfortus_infant","title":"Beyfortus 2026-27 RSV season uptake (Sanofi-led)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Sanofi/SOBI guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":573.790379,"successTP":573.790379,"baseTP":573.790379,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"pozdeutinurad","indication":"pozde_gout","title":"Pozdeutinurad REDUCE 1 Phase 3 topline (>800 pts, fully enrolled) -- second pivotal after positive REDUCE 2","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":93,"_source":"https://mb.cision.com/Main/14266/4375126/4194029.pdf","_confidence":"high","failTP":569.599587,"successTP":576.09706,"baseTP":573.790379,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":80,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tryngolza","indication":"tryngolza_fcs_shtg","title":"Tryngolza sHTG label extension -- CHMP opinion (EMA validated Mar 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://mb.cision.com/Main/14266/4375126/4194029.pdf","_confidence":"medium","failTP":573.790379,"successTP":573.790379,"baseTP":573.790379,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-28","asset":"aspaveli","indication":"aspaveli_pnh_c3g","title":"Aspaveli ex-US C3G launch ramp -- first full year of the C3G/IC-MPGN indication on top of the PNH base (Sobi holds ex-US commercialisation)","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sobi.com/en/press-releases/sobi-receives-european-commission-approval-aspavelir-pegcetacoplan-treatment-c3g-and-primary-ic-mpgn-2418695","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Added Sep 2 2026 (freshness), replacing the now-resolved approval binary. C3G/IC-MPGN roughly doubles the addressable systemic pegcetacoplan population outside PNH; the live variable is uptake (pen), not approval probability.","failTP":573.790379,"successTP":573.790379,"baseTP":573.790379,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"nasp","indication":"nasp_gout","title":"NASP (SEL-212) BLA resubmission after Q2 2026 manufacturing CRL","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"https://mb.cision.com/Main/14266/4375126/4194029.pdf","_confidence":"medium","failTP":573.190074,"successTP":573.517243,"baseTP":573.790379,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1827,"lenses":{"comparable":412.68,"eeRel":0.9712,"peRel":0.1861}},"SOT":{"name":"Sothema (Societe de Therapeutique Marocaine)","subtitle":"Morocco pharma: 16 therapeutic areas + licensed Rx; TTM rev $303M Jun'25; Soludia Maghreb M&A Jul'25; injectable cartridge line 2025; 5:1 split May'26; MCap MAD ~14.6B","currency":"MAD","country":"MA","region":"MEA.OTHER","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":38.31,"netCashLocal":500,"cashPS":13.0514,"tps":{"mega_bear":211.52,"bear":260.8,"base":318.93,"bull":429.67,"psychedelic_bull":538.29},"weightedTP":340.62,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.morocco_mena_pharma","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":3,"totalWTD":3},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"sothema_franchise","indication":"sothema_franchise_diversified","title":"Sothema FY 2026 Morocco + MENA franchise growth update","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.casablanca-bourse.com/en/live-market/instruments/SOT","_confidence":"high","failTP":274.372129,"successTP":409.176334,"baseTP":340.622843,"swingPct":12,"successMove":6,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":303,"lenses":{"comparable":362.16}},"SPIMACO":{"name":"Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries & Medical Appliances Corp","subtitle":"Largest Saudi-domiciled pharma manufacturer (SAR ~1.6B FY25); Vision 2030 localization beneficiary | Branded generics CV + antibiotics + analgesics + Cephalexin/Amoxicillin/Metformin generics","currency":"SAR","country":"SA","region":"MEA.OTHER","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":120,"netCashLocal":300,"cashPS":2.5,"tps":{"mega_bear":16.51,"bear":27.72,"base":40.34,"bull":55.75,"psychedelic_bull":72.57},"weightedTP":42.72,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.generics.saudi_diversified","_diversified","_diversified.generics"],"focus":[],"focusWtd":[],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":0,"totalWTD":0},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"spim_diversified","indication":"spim_div","title":"Vision 2030 Nupco tender wins + biosimilar localization JV announcements","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"SPIMACO IR","_confidence":"medium","failTP":42.7194132,"successTP":42.7194132,"baseTP":42.7194132,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":449,"lenses":{"comparable":50.51,"peRel":0.9977}},"SPRO":{"name":"Spero Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"PIVOT to immunology: SP001 (Innovent anti-CD40L, 3rd-gen Fc-silent) Ph2-ready -- IgG4-RD Ph2 Q2'27 | Utebzi (tebipenem) APPROVED, GSK-launched, royalty monetized ($105M HCRx) | ~$50M net cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":58.15,"netCashLocal":50,"cashPS":0.8598,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.47,"bear":0.88,"base":1.53,"bull":2.58,"psychedelic_bull":3.76},"weightedTP":1.48,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.igg4_rd","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","infectious_disease.bacterial.uti","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd40l","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.antibacterial.beta_lactam_carbapenem","small_molecule","small_molecule.antibacterial"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.igg4_rd","purity":135},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":68},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.uti","purity":65},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":32}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.uti","purity":137},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":69},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.igg4_rd","purity":63},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":31}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.igg4_rd","purity":104},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.uti","purity":96},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":52},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":48}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":111,"totalTAM":6.4045,"totalWTD":3.03061},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 17 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-17","asset":"tebi","indication":"tebi_cuti","title":"REPORTED: Tebipenem HBr FDA APPROVED (Utebzi) -- first oral carbapenem cUTI","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"FDA APPROVED Jun 17 2026 as Utebzi (tebipenem pivoxil HBr) for cUTI -- FIRST oral carbapenem in US. GSK-commercialized, US availability end-2026. Source: GSK PR Jun 2026.","failTP":0.358494447,"successTP":2.26079717,"baseTP":1.47811483,"swingPct":129,"successMove":53,"failMove":-76,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":53,"daysOut":null,"materiality":70},{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-14","asset":"sp001","indication":"sp001_igg4rd","title":"REPORTED: Spero in-licenses SP001 (IBI355, anti-CD40L) from Innovent -- ex-Greater China, up to ~$1.1B milestones; strategic pivot to immunology","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-07-14: exclusive license from Innovent for SP001/IBI355, a Ph2-ready 3rd-gen Fc-silent anti-CD40L; worldwide ex-Greater China. Source: Spero/Innovent PR 2026-07-14.","failTP":1.0105086,"successTP":1.31650172,"baseTP":1.47811483,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-12","asset":"tebi","indication":"tebi_cuti","title":"REPORTED: $105M royalty financing with HCRx affiliates (against future GSK Utebzi payments); Q2'26 cash $50.8M","type":"other","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_note":"RESOLVED Q3'26: $105M non-dilutive royalty financing (HCRx) backed by a portion of future GSK royalties/milestones -- funds SP001 development. Source: Spero Q2'26 results 2026-08-12.","failTP":0.277649449,"successTP":0.70286796,"baseTP":1.47811483,"swingPct":15,"successMove":-26,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-26,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"Aug 28 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-28","asset":"sp001","indication":"sp001_igg4rd","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-28: new 300M USD universal shelf + 100M USD Open Market Sale Agreement with Jefferies (ATM); the 2021 Cantor ATM terminated the same day with zero shares ever sold under it. Capacity only -- no shares issued, shelf not yet effective","type":"other","binary":false,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Financing capacity, not a raise. No cash / sharesOut change. Relevant because the SP001 IgG4-RD Ph2 (Q2'27 start) must be funded off roughly 50M USD equity-effective net cash after the 105M USD HCRx royalty-financing liability.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"Spero 8-K 2026-08-28 (d145223d8k.htm), Items 1.01 + 8.01","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1701108/000119312526374788/d145223d8k.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.0105086,"successTP":1.31650172,"baseTP":1.47811483,"swingPct":11,"successMove":-5,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tebi","indication":"tebi_cuti","title":"GSK Utebzi US commercial availability (by end-2026)","type":"launch","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":0.277649449,"successTP":0.70286796,"baseTP":1.47811483,"swingPct":25,"successMove":-44,"failMove":-69,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-44,"daysOut":null,"materiality":59},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"sp001","indication":"sp001_igg4rd","title":"SP001 Phase 2 initiation in IgG4-related disease (KEY VALUE DRIVER)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_source":"Spero/Innovent PR 2026-07-14","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.0105086,"successTP":1.31650172,"baseTP":1.47811483,"swingPct":21,"successMove":-11,"failMove":-32,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-24,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":1.41,"peRel":2.5006}},"SPRY":{"name":"ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"US specialty -- neffy needle-free epinephrine; Q2'26 US net product rev $26.2M (US share 5%, 2x y/y; 16k prescribers) | EU+CA ALK / JP Alfresa / CN Pediatrix / AU+NZ CSL | $143.8M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":99.3,"netCashLocal":-27.8,"cashPS":-0.28,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.17,"bear":2.88,"base":5.91,"bull":9.21,"psychedelic_bull":13.54},"weightedTP":6.11,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","immunology","immunology.hypersensitivity"],"modalities":["formulation_modifier.intranasal.epinephrine","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.intranasal"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":30,"totalTAM":9.588,"totalWTD":7.39874},"catalysts":[{"date":"2024-08-09","dateSort":"2024-08-09","asset":"neffy","indication":"anaphylaxis","title":"REPORTED: neffy FDA APPROVED -- first needle-free epinephrine nasal spray for Type I allergic reactions / anaphylaxis (adult + peds >=66lbs initially; peds >=33lbs added 2025)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ARS Pharma + FDA Aug 2024 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2024-08-09 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1.1761563,"successTP":7.72303633,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":54,"successMove":13,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"2025-Q2","dateSort":"2025-06-15","asset":"neffy","indication":"anaphylaxis","title":"REPORTED: ALK-Abello EU+Canada licensing deal expanded -- up to $465M total deal value (upfront + milestones + tiered royalties); covers Europe, Canada, UK, additional geographies","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"ARS Pharma + ALK-Abello 2025 PR + FiercePharma","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-06-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1.1761563,"successTP":2.59554325,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-23,"failMove":-32,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-23,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"2025-09-15","dateSort":"2025-09-15","asset":"neffy","indication":"anaphylaxis","title":"REPORTED: Japan PMDA APPROVED neffy 2mg + 1mg (adults + children >15kg); Alfresa launches Q4 2025; $2M regulatory milestone to ARS Pharma upon NHI listing","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ARS Pharma + Alfresa Sept 2025 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-09-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1.1761563,"successTP":7.72303633,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":54,"successMove":13,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"2025-H2","dateSort":"2025-10-15","asset":"neffy","indication":"anaphylaxis","title":"REPORTED: ALK-Abello US co-promotion agreement -- expands neffy reach to additional pediatrician segments (allergy specialist + primary care overlap)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"ARS Pharma + ALK PR 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2025-10-15 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1.1761563,"successTP":2.59554325,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-23,"failMove":-32,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-23,"daysOut":null,"materiality":28},{"date":"2026-03-09","dateSort":"2026-03-09","asset":"neffy","indication":"anaphylaxis","title":"REPORTED: FY25 net product revenue $72.2M in first full year (Q1 $7.8M -> Q2 $12.8M -> Q3 $31.3M sequential acceleration); GTN improving + ROW launches building","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"SPRY FY25 PR Mar 9 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-03-09 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":1.1761563,"successTP":2.59554325,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":12,"successMove":-29,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-29,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"May 15, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-15","asset":"neffy","indication":"anaphylaxis","title":"REPORTED: ARS Pharma Q1 2026 earnings call (May 15 2026; consensus EPS -$0.53; first quarter post-FY25 $72M baseline)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"SPRY Q1 2026 conf call announcement May 7 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"ARS Pharma Q1 2026 earnings reported on schedule May 15, 2026. Outcome details not auto-fetched; treated as neutral routine reporting milestone.","_outcomeSource":"https://ir.ars-pharma.com","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":1.1761563,"successTP":2.59554325,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":12,"successMove":-29,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-29,"daysOut":null,"materiality":35},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"neffy","indication":"anaphylaxis_lcm","title":"RESOLVED: neffy UK MHRA + Australia regulatory decisions expected H1 2026","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Both approved. UK MHRA approved EURneffy (epinephrine nasal spray); Australia TGA approved neffy 1mg & 2mg (via CSL Seqirus), announced 2026-02-15. Both jurisdictions cleared within H1 2026.","_source":"https://newsroom.csl.com/2026-02-15-neffy,-adrenaline-nasal-spray,-now-approved-to-treat-anaphylaxis-in-Australia","_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.45951486,"successTP":5.30177384,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-6,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-15","asset":"neffy","indication":"anaphylaxis","title":"FY26 results -- profitability target now at risk: Q2'26 US net product revenue $26.2M sits BELOW Q3'25 ($31M) and Q4'25 ($28M) despite US share doubling to 5%; watch the sequential US run rate, not share","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"ARS Pharma Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-13","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.1761563,"successTP":2.59554325,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":7,"successMove":-17,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"urticaria_ph2b","indication":"csu_acute","title":"neffy Ph2b CSU interim data (interim patient population fully enrolled; guided Q1 2027)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":82,"_source":"ARS Pharma Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-13","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.29622493,"successTP":6.83196687,"baseTP":6.11252721,"swingPct":25,"successMove":12,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":72,"lenses":{"comparable":10.31}},"SPTX":{"name":"Seaport Therapeutics","subtitle":"Glyph prodrug platform: GlyphAllo (SPT-300) oral allopregnanolone MDD Ph2b BUOY-1 topline H1'27; Ph1 driving study POSITIVE Sep'26 (no impairment); GlyphAgo Ph2 GAD 2H'26; $427M to 2029","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":53,"netCashLocal":427.3,"cashPS":8.0623,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.92,"bear":12.23,"base":23.29,"bull":38.74,"psychedelic_bull":53.53},"weightedTP":22.69,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety"],"modalities":["small_molecule.prodrug.glyph_allopregnanolone","small_molecule","small_molecule.prodrug","small_molecule.prodrug.glyph_agomelatine"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":85},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":85},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":30}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":91},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":91},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":100},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":90},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":90},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":20}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":185,"totalTAM":17.944,"totalWTD":6.2855672},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-09","asset":"glyphallo","indication":"glyphallo_mdd","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-09: GlyphAllo Ph1 simulated-driving study POSITIVE -- evening 375mg (top BUOY-1 dose) did NOT impair next-morning driving vs placebo on Day 5 after multi-day dosing; 250mg also studied; results to FDA. Key differentiator vs zuranolone's driving warning","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/seaport-therapeutics-reports-positive-topline-results-from-phase-1-driving-simulation-trial-of-glyphallo-in-healthy-volunteers","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.64477199,"successTP":34.8860521,"baseTP":22.6920396,"swingPct":78,"successMove":38,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":44},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"glyphallo","indication":"glyphallo_mdd","title":"GlyphAllo Ph2b BUOY-1 topline in MDD with/without anxious distress (potentially registration-enabling) -- CORRECTED: lead indication is MDD, not PPD; timing guided H1 2027 (was modeled H2 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://seaporttx.com/press-release/seaport-therapeutics-announces-first-patient-dosed-in-phase-2b-buoy-1-study-of-glyphallotm-spt-300-in-major-depressive-disorder-mdd-with-or-without-anxious-distress/ + Q2 2026 update (Aug 3 2026)","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.64477199,"successTP":34.8860521,"baseTP":22.6920396,"swingPct":111,"successMove":54,"failMove":-57,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":63}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":22.88}},"SRPT":{"name":"Sarepta Therapeutics","subtitle":"DMD gene therapy + PMO + siRNA | Elevidys boxed warning (acute liver failure), AMBULATORY-only label; FDA cleared sirolimus Cohort 8 for non-ambulatory | Amondys/Vyondys sNDA decisions Dec'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":105,"netCashLocal":-393.8,"cashPS":-3.7505,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0.24,"base":24.54,"bull":44.06,"psychedelic_bull":74.2},"weightedTP":26.1,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.lgmd","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.micro_dystrophin","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.splice_modulator.exon_skipping_pmo","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.splice_modulator","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.beta_sarcoglycan","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.dux4","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.dmpk"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":64},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":57},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":30},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.lgmd","purity":19},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":16},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":6},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":59},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":36},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":31},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":27},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.lgmd","purity":23},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":81},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.pangenotypic","purity":41},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon51","purity":29},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.lgmd","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":12},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":12},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":7},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon53","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":205,"totalTAM":21.21,"totalWTD":6.94852},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-01","asset":"srp9003","indication":"lgmd2e","title":"SRP-9003 BLA submission (post AAVrh74 hold resolution)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":65,"failTP":24.6132209,"successTP":27.1477227,"baseTP":26.0977841,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":39,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-01","asset":"amondys","indication":"dmd_ex45","title":"FDA decision on Amondys 45 sNDA (traditional approval conversion)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"failTP":26.0977841,"successTP":26.0977841,"baseTP":26.0977841,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-01","asset":"vyondys","indication":"dmd_ex53","title":"FDA decision on Vyondys 53 sNDA (traditional approval conversion)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"failTP":26.0977841,"successTP":26.0977841,"baseTP":26.0977841,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"srp1001","indication":"fshd","title":"SRP-1001 Ph1/2 FSHD MAD data (slipped from 2026-09-15; mgmt Sep 2026: 2H26, after DM1, pending biomarker assay validation)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"failTP":23.4982367,"successTP":27.8269292,"baseTP":26.0977841,"swingPct":17,"successMove":7,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H2 2026 / early 2027","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"srp1003","indication":"dm1","title":"SRP-1003 Phase 1/2 higher-dose (12 mg/kg) DM1 data","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_note":"SLIPPED. Top-dose cohort 5 (12 mg/kg) data not yet reported as of 2026-07-06. Per Sarepta Nov 2025 update, cohorts 1-2 complete, cohort 3 (4.5 mg/kg) fully enrolled, cohort 4 (6 mg/kg) dosing, with cohort 5 (12 mg/kg) dosing planned to INITIATE in early 2026; a $200M Arrowhead enrollment milestone was triggered. March 2026 first clinical data (dose-dependent muscle exposure, target mRNA knockdown, favorable tolerability) covered lower/earlier cohorts, not the 12 mg/kg readout. dateSort slipped to H2 2026/early 2027.","_source":"https://investorrelations.sarepta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sarepta-provides-progress-update-srp-1003-its-investigational","failTP":23.5393297,"successTP":27.7494026,"baseTP":26.0977841,"swingPct":16,"successMove":6,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"elevidys","indication":"dmd_gt","title":"Elevidys non-ambulatory ENDEAVOR Cohort 8 (Study 9001-103, ~25 patients, enhanced sirolimus 14 days pre-infusion and 12 weeks post) -- co-primary safety (acute liver injury incidence) and efficacy (dystrophin expression at 12 weeks). SLIPPED (date rolled from 2026-09-01): dosing began Apr 2026 with primary-endpoint data collection completing H2 2026; resumption of commercial non-ambulatory dosing and any reversal of the ambulatory-only label restriction will be decided with FDA after the data. No assumption change","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":90,"failTP":26.0977841,"successTP":26.0977841,"baseTP":26.0977841,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1844,"lenses":{"comparable":47.95}},"SRRK":{"name":"Scholar Rock Holding Corporation","subtitle":"ISEMBYLD (apitegromab) FDA APPROVED Sep 11'26 for SMA (age 2+, add-on to SMN2 therapy); EU MAA to be refiled; Japan filing YE'26; FORGE FSHD Ph2; SRK-439 Ph1 late'26; cash $492M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":132.16,"netCashLocal":295.9,"cashPS":2.239,"tps":{"mega_bear":19.94,"bear":28.51,"base":38.44,"bull":49.57,"psychedelic_bull":60.49},"weightedTP":40.47,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_myostatin","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":192},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":96},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":178},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":89},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.sma","purity":151},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":80},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":40},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":20},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.fshd","purity":9}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":360,"totalTAM":299.2275,"totalWTD":65.032691},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 18 2025","dateSort":"2025-06-18","asset":"apitegromab","indication":"apit_obesity","title":"REPORTED: Apitegromab + tirzepatide obesity Ph2 PoC (EMBRAZE) POSITIVE topline -- statistically significant lean-mass preservation (54.9% more lean mass retained, p=0.001; +85% fat loss vs 70%)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":38,"success_apr":50,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250618254394/en/Scholar-Rock-Reports-Positive-Phase-2-EMBRAZE-Trial-Results-Demonstrating-Statistically-Significant-Preservation-of-Lean-Mass-with-Apitegromab-During-Tirzepatide-Induced-Weight-Loss","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Placeholder dosing-start catalyst is stale: the apitegromab+tirzepatide obesity Ph2 PoC (EMBRAZE) had already DOSED (2024) and reported POSITIVE topline on 2025-06-18 -- statistically significant lean-mass preservation (54.9% more lean mass retained vs tirzepatide alone, p=0.001; 85% fat loss vs 70%; published Nature Medicine). Reclassified soft milestone -> positive binary data. Applied soft (<=3pt) lift to mega_bear apit_obesity pos/apr toward success; bear (28/38) and base (42/52) already at/above success target (38/50), monotonicity preserved.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_note":"2025-06-18: EMBRAZE positive topline (BusinessWire / Scholar Rock IR / Nature Medicine). NOTE: the separate 2027-09-30 'obesity Ph2 PoC topline' catalyst in this config is now also superseded by EMBRAZE -- out of triage scope here, flag for follow-up.","failTP":36.6001631,"successTP":41.7176112,"baseTP":40.4689747,"swingPct":13,"successMove":3,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"Sep 11 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-11","asset":"apitegromab","indication":"apit_sma","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-11: FDA APPROVED ISEMBYLD (apitegromab-mstn) for SMA age 2+ on SMN2-targeted therapy -- 19 days ahead of the Sep 30 PDUFA; rare pediatric PRV granted","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":98,"_source":"https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/scholar-rock-stock-surges-on-fda-resubmission-for-sma-drug-93CH-4590109","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeSource":"https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-announces-fda-approval-isembyldtm-apitegromab-mstn","failTP":9.21422264,"successTP":45.6793573,"baseTP":40.4689747,"swingPct":90,"successMove":13,"failMove":-77,"yourPoS":98,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":75},{"date":"Late 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"srk439","indication":"srk439_obesity","title":"SRK-439 Phase 1 healthy-volunteer topline (PK/PD vs apitegromab; SC depot validation) -- guided late 2026 (Q2 8-K)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/scholar-rock-srrk-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/","_confidence":"high","failTP":38.8159928,"successTP":41.1849515,"baseTP":40.4689747,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"apitegromab","indication":"apit_fshd","title":"Apitegromab FSHD randomized Phase 2 study initiation","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/08/scholar-rock-srrk-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/","_confidence":"high","failTP":39.4494321,"successTP":40.9092062,"baseTP":40.4689747,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"apitegromab","indication":"apit_sma","title":"EMA MAA REFILING + CHMP opinion on apitegromab SMA -- ROLLED: MAA withdrawn by written procedure Aug 20 2026 over the Catalent Indiana fill-finish site; refile with alternate facility, no timing guided","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":97,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/SRRK/pressreleases/1799759/scholar-rock-advances-apitegromab-toward-potential-2026-launches/","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260821050366/en/","failTP":11.2041967,"successTP":45.6793573,"baseTP":40.4689747,"swingPct":77,"successMove":12,"failMove":-65,"yourPoS":98,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":68}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":40.04},"readouts":[{"a":"apitegromab","ind":"apit_obesity","ds":"2025-06-18","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":15.1025272,"lo":-0.795480969,"hi":28.5787738,"pBeatBest":0.09815,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"srk439","ind":"srk439_obesity","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.0816185,"lo":2.86004831,"hi":29.4117309,"pBeatBest":0.13285,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"STADA":{"name":"STADA Arzneimittel AG (private; Bain Capital + Cinven since 2017)","subtitle":"PRIVATE -- German pharma (Bad Vilbel) | CapVest ~70% buyout CLOSED 31-Mar-2026 at ~EUR 10bn (Bain + Cinven keep minorities) | record rev EUR 4.3B, adj EBITDA EUR 961M | Generics/Specialty/CHC","currency":"EUR","country":"DE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns","cns.neurodegeneration","_established_products.stada_generics","_established_products","_established_products.stada_otc","_established_products.stada_biosimilars"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","peptide.hormone_analog.pth_analog","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_agonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.biosimilars.heritage","_diversified.biosimilars"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":33},{"area":"_established_products.stada_generics","purity":32},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":22},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":20},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":20},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":16},{"area":"_established_products.stada_biosimilars","purity":16},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":33},{"area":"_established_products.stada_generics","purity":32},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":22},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":20},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":20},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":18},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":16},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":16},{"area":"_established_products.stada_biosimilars","purity":16},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":10},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":8},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.stada_generics","purity":104},{"area":"_established_products.stada_otc","purity":52},{"area":"_established_products.stada_biosimilars","purity":25},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":5},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":189.145,"totalWTD":189.145},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":4460},"STOK":{"name":"Stoke Therapeutics","subtitle":"Zorevunersen P3 EMPEROR (Dravet, enrolment DONE 162 pts, Q3'27 topline; rolling NDA from Q1'27) · STK-002 P1 ADOA (OSPREY, data H1'27) · TANGO ASO platform; Biogen ex-N.America deal","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":64.5,"netCashLocal":420,"cashPS":6.5116,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.91,"bear":15.17,"base":34.22,"bull":45.92,"psychedelic_bull":56},"weightedTP":34.01,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","cns","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.dee","ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.adoa","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.splice_modulator.tango_aso","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.splice_modulator"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.adoa","purity":113},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":57},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":43},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":43},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":40},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":68},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":68},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":68},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.adoa","purity":63},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":32},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":76},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee","purity":76},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.dravet","purity":75},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho.adoa","purity":49},{"area":"ophthalmology.neuro_ophtho","purity":24},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","purity":1}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":233,"totalTAM":10.2815,"totalWTD":3.08586748},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"zoreva","indication":"dravet","title":"REPORTED: EMPEROR Ph3 enrollment COMPLETE 162 pts (beat 150 target; ~50 pts past 28wk, 0 discontinuations); topline now Q3 2027","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_outcome":"success","fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"company PR (BioSpace mirror)","_sourceUrl":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/stoke-therapeutics-announces-completion-of-enrollment-of-162-patients-into-the-phase-3-emperor-study-of-zorevunersen-an-investigational-medicine-for-the-treatment-of-dravet-syndrome","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"RESOLVED 2026-07-01: enrollment complete at 162 pts (US/UK/Japan; +~30-pt EU cohort excl. from US NDA), 0 discontinuations, ~50 pts past 28wk. Process milestone (not efficacy) -> de-risks the Q3 2027 topline; per protocol resolved as narrative HIT with NO pos/apr move (the binary remains the 2027 readout at pos90/apr92 base success).","failTP":25.3519251,"successTP":46.1241523,"baseTP":34.0109437,"swingPct":18,"successMove":11,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":51,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"End of 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"syngap","indication":"syngap1","title":"SYNGAP1 clinical candidate nomination","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":4,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":12,"success_apr":35,"_source":"company","_sourceUrl":"https://investor.stoketherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/stoke-therapeutics-reports-third-quarter-2025-financial-results","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Company guided lead optimization underway for SYNGAP1 clinical candidate identification in 2026","failTP":33.6675444,"successTP":34.2190423,"baseTP":34.0109437,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":2,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"zoreva","indication":"dravet","title":"Zorevunersen rolling NDA submission begins (pre-NDA meeting with FDA in H2 2026)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_source":"Stoke Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-03","_sourceUrl":"https://investor.stoketherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/stoke-therapeutics-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial/","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guided a pre-NDA meeting in H2 2026 and initiation of a rolling NDA in Q1 2027, ahead of the Q3 2027 EMPEROR readout.","failTP":10.1000133,"successTP":15.1982702,"baseTP":34.0109437,"swingPct":8,"successMove":-27,"failMove":-35,"yourPoS":51,"expectedReturn":-31,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"stk002","indication":"adoa","title":"STK-002 OSPREY Ph1 ADOA safety + efficacy data (dose escalation underway; guided H1 2027)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":70,"_source":"Stoke Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-03","_sourceUrl":"https://investor.stoketherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/stoke-therapeutics-receives-authorization-initiate-phase-12/","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"OSPREY enrolling US/UK/Japan since 2025; first-cohort data window H2 2026","failTP":25.4177053,"successTP":38.6661596,"baseTP":34.0109437,"swingPct":27,"successMove":10,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":-10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"Mid-2027","dateSort":"2027-07-15","asset":"zoreva","indication":"dravet","title":"EMPEROR Phase 3 topline readout (Dravet)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"company","_sourceUrl":"https://investor.stoketherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/stoke-therapeutics-announces-updates-timelines-completion/","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company-guided mid-2027 EMPEROR primary endpoint readout — highest-impact catalyst, drives NDA submission","failTP":12.9704306,"successTP":53.7060323,"baseTP":34.0109437,"swingPct":120,"successMove":58,"failMove":-62,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":62}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":76,"ceilPct":65,"position":"first_in_disease","asset":"syngap","ind":"syngap1","area":"cns.epilepsy.dee.syngap1","somB":0.3,"tamB":0.4}},"lenses":{"comparable":36.24}},"STRO":{"name":"Sutro Biopharma, Inc.","subtitle":"NEXT-GEN dual-payload iADC pivot Mar 2025: STRO-004 Tissue Factor Ph1 (lead) + STRO-006 ITGB6 + STRO-227 PTK7 + Astellas TROP2 partnered; Luvelta deprioritized | Cash $203M to Q2 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":16.57,"netCashLocal":202.6,"cashPS":12.2269,"tps":{"mega_bear":9.69,"bear":10.62,"base":12.63,"bull":16.35,"psychedelic_bull":21.65},"weightedTP":12.73,"meta":{"areas":["_platform.adc_discovery","_platform","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian"],"modalities":["biologic.adc.dual_payload.tissue_factor","biologic","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.dual_payload","biologic.adc.dual_payload.itgb6","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.fralpha","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":169},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":85},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":15},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":136},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":32},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":123},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":38},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":38},{"area":"_platform.adc_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":571,"totalTAM":14.5155,"totalWTD":2.16423},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mid 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"stro004","indication":"stro004_solid","title":"STRO-004 Tissue Factor dual-payload iADC Ph1 initial data","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"high","failTP":12.7328105,"successTP":12.7328105,"baseTP":12.7328105,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"stro006","indication":"stro006_pdac","title":"STRO-006 ITGB6 IND submission","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":10.8673037,"successTP":11.1909269,"baseTP":12.7328105,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":13.4}},"SUN":{"name":"Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.","subtitle":"Sun Pharma FY25 ₹52,578 cr (~$6.3B) consolidated (+8%); India ₹16,923 cr; US $1,921M; Global Specialty $1,216M (+17%); FY26 guide mid-high SD growth | Largest Indian pharma","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":2399,"netCashLocal":131050,"cashPS":54.6269,"tps":{"mega_bear":790.08,"bear":1094.65,"base":1606.08,"bull":2041.46,"psychedelic_bull":2734.02},"weightedTP":1577.21,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.surface","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","oncology.skin.bcc","oncology","oncology.skin","dermatology.skin_lesions.actinic_keratosis","dermatology.skin_lesions","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.sun_sun_india_formulations_other","_established_products","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","_established_products.sun_sun_us_generics_other","_established_products.sun_sun_em_generics_other","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.sun_sun_eu_row_other","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","oncology.skin.melanoma","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","women_health.menopause.hrt","women_health","women_health.menopause","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23p19","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.enzyme.calcineurin_cyclosporine","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.ar_antagonist","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor","small_molecule.gpcr.smoothened_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.retinoid_isotretinoin","small_molecule.photodynamic.ala","small_molecule.photodynamic","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.kinase.jak1_tyk2","small_molecule.kinase","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.tumor_targeted","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","small_molecule.gpcr.s1p1_agonist","formulation_modifier.depot.implant_etonogestrel","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.depot","biologic.antibody.mab.biosimilar_diversified","_diversified.branded.legacy_brands"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":69},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":34},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":23},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":18},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":6},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.bcc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.skin_lesions.actinic_keratosis","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.skin_lesions","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_india_formulations_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_em_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_eu_row_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":70},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":35},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":19},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":14},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":5},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":5},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":3},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.bcc","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"dermatology.skin_lesions.actinic_keratosis","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.skin_lesions","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_india_formulations_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_em_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_eu_row_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":83},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":66},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":66},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.acne","purity":19},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.dry_eye","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.alopecia_areata","purity":15},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.skin.bcc","purity":7},{"area":"dermatology.skin_lesions.actinic_keratosis","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":5},{"area":"dermatology.skin_lesions","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.adjuvant","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_india_formulations_other","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_em_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.sun_sun_eu_row_other","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.atopic_dermatitis","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause.hrt","purity":0},{"area":"women_health.menopause","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":2,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":1,"totalTAM":915.4269,"totalWTD":903.567088},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"leqselvi","indication":"alopecia","title":"RESOLVED: Leqselvi US launch cleared -- Fed Circuit lifted injunction, Sun settled with Incyte + launched Jul 14 2025","type":"launch","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Federal Circuit vacated the preliminary injunction; Sun then entered a settlement/license with Incyte (upfront + royalties to patent expiry for non-heme/onc indications incl. alopecia) and launched Leqselvi (deuruxolitinib) in the US on Jul 14, 2025.","_source":"https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/sun-pharma-launches-leqselvi-us-patent-settlement-incyte-125071401218_1.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":1576.75254,"successTP":1577.40104,"baseTP":1577.2093,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":86,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jul 23 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-23","asset":"ogn_nexplanon","indication":"nexplanon_contraception","title":"REPORTED: Organon stockholders APPROVED Sun Pharma $11.75B EV acquisition ($14.00/sh cash) at special meeting","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.organon.com/news/sun-pharma-signs-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-organon/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_note":"Definitive agreement Apr 26 2026 at $14.00/share cash ($11.75B EV). Organon stockholder approval obtained Jul 23 2026; remaining conditions are regulatory clearances. Close guided early 2027. Config previously mislabeled deal size as $1.75B -- corrected. No assumption change (deal economics already carried via ogn_* assets); debt funding of the purchase is a balance-sheet item FLAGGED for manual review.","failTP":1577.2093,"successTP":1577.2093,"baseTP":1577.2093,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-29","asset":"ilumya","indication":"psoriasis","title":"ILUMYA (tildrakizumab-asmn) psoriatic arthritis sBLA -- FDA ACTION DATE CONFIRMED 29 Oct 2026 (sBLA accepted Mar 2026 on the Ph3 INSPIRE programme)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":98,"success_apr":95,"_source":"Sun Pharma PR, US FDA acceptance of sBLA for ILUMYA (Mar 2026)","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://sunpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Sun-Pharma-Announces-US-FDA-Acceptance-of-sBLA-Application-for-ILUMYA.pdf","failTP":1577.2093,"successTP":1577.2093,"baseTP":1577.2093,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Early 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"ogn_nexplanon","indication":"nexplanon_contraception","title":"Organon acquisition CLOSE (regulatory clearances outstanding; $11.75B EV)","type":"other","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.organon.com/news/sun-pharma-signs-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-organon/","_confidence":"high","failTP":1577.2093,"successTP":1577.2093,"baseTP":1577.2093,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"nidlegy","indication":"melanoma_localcure","title":"Nidlegy EMA decision (locally advanced melanoma) -- SLIPPED: Philogen RESUBMITTED the MAA Jul 27 2026 with 33-month follow-up; CHMP opinion not before ~H2 2027","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.philogen.com/2026/07/27/nidlegy-marketing-authorization-application-resubmitted-to-ema/","_confidence":"high","failTP":1577.18172,"successTP":1577.23153,"baseTP":1577.2093,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":11564,"lenses":{"comparable":901.51,"eeRel":0.5111,"peRel":0.829}},"SUPN":{"name":"Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Neuropsychiatry specialty (STANDALONE until merger close) | Q2'26 rev $219.1M +32%; FY26 guide $840-870M | Qelbree + GOCOVRI + ZURZUVAE + ONAPGO | 1.5401 INDV per SUPN, close Q4'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":58.04,"netCashLocal":331.2,"cashPS":5.7064,"tps":{"mega_bear":22.36,"bear":32.69,"base":53.12,"bull":82.75,"psychedelic_bull":122.37},"weightedTP":54.9,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.adhd","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","cns.neurodegeneration","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.net_viloxazine","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","small_molecule.ion_channel.nmda_amantadine","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_a_modulator","small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_apomorphine","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.kinase.mtorc1_activator","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.enzyme.acetylcholinesterase","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.transporter.stimulant_undisclosed"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":71},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":52},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":46},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":45},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":45},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":23},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":13},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":67},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":64},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":43},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":43},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":43},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":34},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.parkinson_disease","purity":105},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":54},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":53},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":47},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":20},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":20},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":1}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":48,"totalTAM":68.105,"totalWTD":45.9903063},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"supn_820","indication":"mdd_820","title":"SPN-820 (NV-5138) ADJUNCTIVE Ph2b MDD topline (mTORC1 activator, 2400mg twice-weekly add-on) -- 2nd attempt after monotherapy TRD Ph2b FAILED Feb 2025 (MADRS Wk4 -12.3 vs -11.9 pbo, p=NS)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"SUPN Q1 2026 earnings (2026-05-05) -- program repositioned to adjunctive after monotherapy failure; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/18 monotherapy fail","_confidence":"medium","_note":"Monotherapy TRD Ph2b failed primary MADRS Wk4 endpoint Feb 18 2025. SPN-820 repositioned to a new ADJUNCTIVE Ph2b (2400mg intermittent twice-weekly). base pos trimmed 50->38 (bounded surprise move -- config had never encoded the monotherapy failure). Full re-rate of the SOTP pipeline bucket + adding SPN-817/SPN-443 flagged for owner. | 2026-09-03: date is an ESTIMATE, not company guidance -- Supernus described the adjunctive Ph2b MDD study as ongoing in its Q2 2026 report without giving a topline date. Roll rather than resolve if it passes silently.","failTP":54.2931298,"successTP":55.8135647,"baseTP":54.9005136,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"supn_820","indication":"mdd_820","title":"Supernus/Indivior all-stock merger CLOSE -- SUPN holders receive 1.5401 INDV shares per SUPN share; 43.5% SUPN / 56.5% INDV pro-forma; $125M annual cost synergies; stockholder + regulatory approvals pending","type":"ma_close","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://ir.supernus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/supernus-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results (Aug 3 2026 8-K/425)","_confidence":"high","_note":"Merger announced Aug 3 2026 (surprise -- no pre-declared catalyst). Catalyst added for tracking only; NO valuation-structure edit made. Standalone SUPN scenarios/val/wt left intact -- pro-forma re-rate (combined entity, $125M synergies, INDV $1.0B special dividend funded by $650M Citi term loan) FLAGGED for owner. fail/success mirror the existing SPN-820 anchors so the schema-required fields do not imply a new assumption path.","failTP":54.2931298,"successTP":55.8135647,"baseTP":54.9005136,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":28,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"qelbree","indication":"adhd_qel","title":"FY26 revenue guide $840-870M; adj op earnings $140-170M","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"SUPN FY26 guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":54.9005136,"successTP":54.9005136,"baseTP":54.9005136,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":556,"lenses":{"comparable":36.45,"eeRel":0.8473}},"SVRA":{"name":"Savara","subtitle":"MOLBREEVI (molgramostim) inhaled GM-CSF for autoimmune PAP -- BLA filed Feb'26 + Priority Review; PDUFA EXTENDED to NOV 22'26 (was Aug 22); IMPALA-2 Ph3 positive; cash $202.8M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":204.66,"netCashLocal":202.8,"cashPS":0.9909,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.52,"bear":3.61,"base":5.96,"bull":7.47,"psychedelic_bull":8.41},"weightedTP":5.43,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.alveolar.autoimmune_pap","respiratory","respiratory.alveolar"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.gm_csf_inhaled","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.alveolar.autoimmune_pap","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.alveolar","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.alveolar.autoimmune_pap","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.alveolar","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.alveolar.autoimmune_pap","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.alveolar","purity":100}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":24,"totalTAM":2.632,"totalWTD":2.1308672},"catalysts":[{"date":"Nov 22 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-22","asset":"molbreevi","indication":"mol_apap","title":"MOLBREEVI FDA PDUFA decision (extended from Aug 22 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/savara-announces-the-u-s-food-drug-administration-fda-has-extended-the-review-period-for-the-molgramostim-inhalation-solution-molgramostim-biologics-license-application-bla-in-autoimmune-pulmonary-alveolar-proteinosis-autoimmune-pap","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.74395194,"successTP":7.16916141,"baseTP":5.42789106,"swingPct":100,"successMove":32,"failMove":-68,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":24,"daysOut":null,"materiality":83},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"molbreevi","indication":"mol_apap","title":"MOLBREEVI EMA CHMP opinion / EU approval (concurrent review)","type":"ema_approval","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/SVRA/10-q-savara-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-4f75c4da3ebe.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.80856835,"successTP":6.94408721,"baseTP":5.42789106,"swingPct":68,"successMove":25,"failMove":-43,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":74}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":10.54}},"SYNGENE":{"name":"Syngene International","subtitle":"India CRO/CDMO leader (Biocon subsidiary): FY26 rev INR 3,739 Cr (+3%) EBITDA 25% PAT INR 380 Cr; Q4 +13% sequential; new modalities peptides+ADCs; MCap INR 190B","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"services","private":false,"sharesOut":408,"netCashLocal":8000,"cashPS":19.6078,"tps":{"mega_bear":262.58,"bear":337.81,"base":412.47,"bull":554.7,"psychedelic_bull":694.2},"weightedTP":426.25,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_platform.cdmo.integrated_crdmo","_platform","_platform.cdmo"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":6,"totalWTD":6},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"syngene_crdmo","indication":"syngene_franchise","title":"Syngene FY 2027 large-mol client recovery + peptide/ADC ramp + new CEO Mittal first FY","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.investywise.com/syngene-international-q4-and-full-year-fy26-results/","_confidence":"high","failTP":341.498488,"successTP":522.622214,"baseTP":426.25155,"swingPct":13,"successMove":7,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":449,"lenses":{"comparable":456.5,"peRel":0.8731}},"SYRE":{"name":"Spyre Therapeutics","subtitle":"IBD platform PoC complete: SPY001 a4b7 HIT Apr'26 (-9.2 RHI), SPY002 TL1A Jun'26 (-10.7), SPY003 IL-23 Sep8'26 (-10.0); SPY072 RA missed bar; combo topline 2027; cash $1.15B","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":106.1,"netCashLocal":1475.3,"cashPS":13.9048,"tps":{"mega_bear":12.46,"bear":18.01,"base":28.39,"bull":38.69,"psychedelic_bull":49.48},"weightedTP":28.56,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_a4b7","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tl1a","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il23"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":98},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":69},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":41},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":31}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":149},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":95},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":41},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":166},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":99},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":32},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":1}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":235,"totalTAM":101.935,"totalWTD":30.455172},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 3 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-03","asset":"spy072","indication":"spy072_ra","title":"REPORTED: SKYWAY basket trial enrollment COMPLETE (RA + PsA + axSpA cohorts fully enrolled); reiterates Q3 RA readout + Q4 PsA + axSpA","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_source":"Spyre IR Jun 3 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"SKYWAY basket trial of SPY072 (anti-TL1A) in RA, PsA, axSpA fully enrolled. De-risks Q3/Q4 readout timing.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":28.5184904,"successTP":29.519296,"baseTP":28.5601259,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-15","asset":"spy002","indication":"spy002_uc","title":"REPORTED: SPY002 anti-TL1A SKYLINE Part A induction topline (UC)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://ir.spyre.com/news-releases/news-release-details/spyre-therapeutics-poised-transformational-2026-six-expected","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"2026-06-15: SKYLINE Part A UC induction HIT -- RHI -10.7 p<0.0001, clinical remission 33%, endoscopic improvement 42%; class-consistent safety. Base pos 40->48, apr 55->62 (toward success_pos 62). Source: Spyre 8-K syre-20260615 / GlobeNewswire.","failTP":24.7859072,"successTP":30.1015565,"baseTP":28.5601259,"swingPct":18,"successMove":5,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":62,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"spy003","indication":"spy003_uc","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-08 (HIT): SPY003 anti-IL-23 SKYLINE Part A 12-wk induction topline (UC) -- RHI -10.0 from baseline (p<0.0001, n=44), clinical remission 20%, endoscopic improvement 30%, mMS -3.5; 41% prior advanced-therapy exposed; 2% drug-related AEs, zero drug-related SAEs, zero safety discontinuations. Completes PoC for all three IBD combination components","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://ir.spyre.com/news-releases/news-release-details/spyre-therapeutics-poised-transformational-2026-six-expected","_confidence":"high","failTP":26.3169764,"successTP":29.4077532,"baseTP":28.5601259,"swingPct":11,"successMove":3,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"spy072","indication":"spy072_ra","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-25: SPY072 SKYWAY Ph2 RA PoC topline -- MISS vs internal bar. DAS28-CRP -1.9 (low dose, p<0.05) / -1.5 (high) vs -1.3 pbo; ACR20 58%/63% vs 43%; ACR50 38%/31% vs 19% (nominal); well tolerated (AE 27% vs 36% pbo). Company will NOT prioritize SPY072 monotherapy in RA","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/25/3350866/0/en/spyre-therapeutics-announces-topline-results-from-the-rheumatoid-arthritis-sub-study-of-the-skyway-phase-2-trial-of-spy072.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Binary resolved as a MISS on the commercial bar the catalyst was written against: statistical significance was achieved on DAS28-CRP at the low dose and nominal significance on ACR20/ACR50, but the magnitude was insufficient and Spyre stated the data 'did not meet the Company's internal bar to prioritize advancement of SPY072 in RA'. spy072_ra moved to the pre-declared fail leg (base pos 35->18, apr 45->28); residual scenario spread retained because the company reiterated TL1A as a combination component and PsA/axSpA sub-studies read out Q4 2026.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":28.4783895,"successTP":29.3484427,"baseTP":28.5601259,"swingPct":3,"successMove":3,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"spy001","indication":"spy001_uc","title":"SPY001 SKYLINE Part B maintenance + combo PoC topline (UC)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":28,"fail_apr":38,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://ir.spyre.com/news-releases/news-release-details/spyre-therapeutics-poised-transformational-2026-six-expected","_confidence":"medium","failTP":19.9942972,"successTP":32.9158414,"baseTP":28.5601259,"swingPct":45,"successMove":15,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":30},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"spy072","indication":"spy072_ra","title":"SPY072 SKYWAY Ph2 PsA + axSpA 16-wk PoC topline (basket trial expansion)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://ir.spyre.com/news-releases/news-release-details/spyre-therapeutics-poised-transformational-2026-six-expected","_confidence":"medium","failTP":28.4848912,"successTP":29.3484427,"baseTP":28.5601259,"swingPct":3,"successMove":3,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"spy001","indication":"spy001_crohns","title":"SPY001 SKYLINE Crohn's basket induction topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.spyre.com/pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":25.5232852,"successTP":31.1649187,"baseTP":28.5601259,"swingPct":20,"successMove":9,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":38.35},"readouts":[{"a":"spy002","ind":"spy002_uc","ds":"2026-06-15","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":11.4168273,"lo":-0.388680684,"hi":22.1392999,"pBeatBest":0.34305,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7},{"a":"spy003","ind":"spy003_uc","ds":"2026-09-08","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":11.4469025,"lo":-0.388333122,"hi":22.0755391,"pBeatBest":0.3382,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7},{"a":"spy072","ind":"spy072_ra","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","endpoint":"acr20_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":33.7654456,"lo":8.64559351,"hi":71.0238061,"pBeatBest":0.117,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 15mg","bestValue":64},{"a":"spy001","ind":"spy001_uc","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":11.3966048,"lo":-0.532147186,"hi":21.9481222,"pBeatBest":0.3333,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7},{"a":"spy072","ind":"spy072_ra","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","endpoint":"acr20_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":33.8845147,"lo":8.83139776,"hi":70.8269965,"pBeatBest":0.11875,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 15mg","bestValue":64},{"a":"spy001","ind":"spy001_crohns","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":15.495169,"lo":-4.6556635,"hi":32.384773,"pBeatBest":0.23305,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 45mg","bestValue":22}]},"TARS":{"name":"Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"XDEMVY (lotilaner) Demodex blepharitis FY25 $451M; 2026 guide $670-700M (+50%) | + Alkeus gildeuretinol oral Ph3 Stargardt -- acquisition CLOSED Sep 4 2026","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":46.21,"netCashLocal":106.9,"cashPS":2.3134,"tps":{"mega_bear":24.74,"bear":41.15,"base":64.65,"bull":103.24,"psychedelic_bull":147.97},"weightedTP":72.94,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.surface.blepharitis_demodex","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.surface","infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","ophthalmology.retina"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antiparasitic.gabacl_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.antiparasitic","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.retinoid_deuterated","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":118},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":59},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":45},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.blepharitis_demodex","purity":36},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":23},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":18}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":79},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.blepharitis_demodex","purity":67},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":54},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":39},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":34},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":27}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.surface.blepharitis_demodex","purity":182},{"area":"ophthalmology.surface","purity":91},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.stargardt","purity":13},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":164,"totalTAM":13.36,"totalWTD":5.06129625},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-04","asset":"xdemvy","indication":"xdem_bleph","title":"REPORTED: Alkeus acquisition CLOSED Sep 4 2026 -- adds gildeuretinol/ALK-001 oral Ph3 Stargardt; ~$450M upfront ($270M cash + $180M stock) + up to $350M milestones + low single-digit tiered royalties","type":"partnership","binary":false,"_source":"Tarsus PR 2026-09-04","_sourceUrl":"https://ir.tarsusrx.com/news-releases","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Closed Sep 4 2026 following HSR clearance (Tarsus PR). Financial impact (cash 417->147, sharesOut 43->45.78) and the gildeuretinol asset were already carried in the config from the Aug 6 announcement, so close is confirmatory -- no double-count.","failTP":72.9442718,"successTP":72.9442718,"baseTP":72.9442718,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xdemvy","indication":"xdem_bleph","title":"XDEMVY FY26 $685-705M (raised Aug 6 2026) guide (+50%) + China launch","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"TARS FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":72.9442718,"successTP":72.9442718,"baseTP":72.9442718,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"1H 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"tp_05","indication":"tp05_lyme","title":"TP-05 Calliope Ph2 Lyme prevention topline (dosed Mar'26)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"TARS pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":71.1481326,"successTP":74.2844259,"baseTP":72.9442718,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2029","dateSort":"2029-06-30","asset":"gildeuretinol","indication":"gilde_stargardt","title":"Gildeuretinol (ALK-001) Ph3 Stargardt topline -- DOMINANT BINARY for the acquired retina franchise","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":3,"fail_apr":5,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":88,"_source":"freshness-review 2026-08-10","_sourceUrl":"https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/tarsus-stakes-450m-alkeus-phase-3-retinal-disease-drug","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Ph3 set to read out in 2029 per the acquisition announcement.","failTP":70.8221809,"successTP":75.9220157,"baseTP":72.9442718,"swingPct":7,"successMove":4,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":451,"lenses":{"comparable":19.17}},"TBPH":{"name":"Theravance Biopharma, Inc. (acquired by Zymeworks; delisted Sep 2026)","subtitle":"ACQUIRED by Zymeworks Sep 23 2026 at $17.00/sh cash + ampreloxetine CVR (~$929M); delisted | Yupelri Q2 26 US net $70.7M (+7%)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":48.8,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.lama","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":200},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":24.6,"totalWTD":24.6},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":108},"TECX":{"name":"Tectonic Therapeutic","subtitle":"Tectonic Therapeutic · TX45 (Fc-relaxin RXFP1 agonist) · APEX Ph2 PH-HFpEF enrolled (n=191), topline early Q1 2027 · expanding to PH-HFrEF + PH-ILD","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":19.55,"netCashLocal":227.1,"cashPS":11.6164,"tps":{"mega_bear":6.89,"bear":9.83,"base":24,"bull":40.87,"psychedelic_bull":60.98},"weightedTP":24.68,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfpef","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfref","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","cardio_metabolic.vascular.hht","cardio_metabolic.vascular"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.relaxin_fc","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.single_domain.apj_antagonist","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.single_domain"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfpef","purity":87},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":84},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfref","purity":54},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular.hht","purity":32},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular","purity":16}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfpef","purity":97},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":91},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfref","purity":53},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":31},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular.hht","purity":19},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular","purity":9}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfpef","purity":95},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":87},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":45},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfref","purity":34},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular.hht","purity":26},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.vascular","purity":13}],"phase":"phase2","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":30,"rarePurityWtd":25,"optionality":321,"totalTAM":16.0725,"totalWTD":3.813606},"catalysts":[{"date":"H1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"tx2100","indication":"hht","title":"REPORTED: TX2100 Phase 1 initiation in HHT","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":8,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":35,"_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Reported ~2026-02-26: Tectonic dosed the first patients in the first-in-human Phase 1 trial of TX2100 (first-in-class APJ/GPCR antagonist) in HHT -- a disease with zero approved therapies. Initiation on-schedule vs Q1 2026 guidance.","_source":"https://longbridge.com/en/news/276862595","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.tectonictx.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Company guided TX2100 Ph1 initiation Q1 2026 (HHT)","failTP":20.4640357,"successTP":26.5652723,"baseTP":24.6781285,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Sep 29 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-09-29","asset":"tx2100","indication":"hht","title":"REPORTED: TX2100 Phase 1a SAD topline -- safe and well tolerated across 6 cohorts (n=48 HV), no SAEs; FDA Fast Track + IND clearance; full data at CureHHT Oct 12-16 2026","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"success","_source":"Tectonic 8-K 2026-09-29 Ex 99.1","_sourceUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1681087/000119312526407823/d20857dex991.htm","_confidence":"high","_note":"At the time of this readout TX2100 sat in pseudo-area _platform.gpcr_discovery (value-inert). Retagged to cardio_metabolic.vascular.hht on 2026-09-30 with a modelled market; see company._dataNote.","failTP":23.0694029,"successTP":41.6592926,"baseTP":24.6781285,"swingPct":53,"successMove":48,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"by YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tx2100","indication":"hht","title":"TX2100 Phase 1b initiation (open-label, hematologic-support-dependent HHT patients)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Tectonic 8-K 2026-09-29 Ex 99.1","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.0694029,"successTP":41.6592926,"baseTP":24.6781285,"swingPct":15,"successMove":14,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"early Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-15","asset":"tx45","indication":"ph_hfpef","title":"TX45 APEX Phase 2 PH-HFpEF topline -- enrollment COMPLETE (n=191); topline now early Q1 2027 (Q2 PR Aug 2026; was 2026)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.tectonictx.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"APEX Ph2 PH-HFpEF topline guided 2026","failTP":16.3729255,"successTP":38.1832075,"baseTP":24.6781285,"swingPct":89,"successMove":55,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25},{"date":"early 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"tx2100","indication":"hht","title":"TX2100 Phase 2 initiation (placebo-controlled, moderate-to-severe HHT)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Tectonic 8-K 2026-09-29 Ex 99.1","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.0694029,"successTP":41.6592926,"baseTP":24.6781285,"swingPct":23,"successMove":21,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"tx45","indication":"ph_ild","title":"TX45 PH-ILD Phase 2 interim","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.tectonictx.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"PH-ILD Ph2 opened for screening 2026; interim 2027","failTP":19.8115382,"successTP":29.490543,"baseTP":24.6781285,"swingPct":40,"successMove":20,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"tx45","indication":"ph_hfpef","title":"TX45 BLA submission (PH-HFpEF)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":85,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.tectonictx.com/","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"low","_rationale":"BLA conditional on APEX success + PH-HFrEF confirmatory","failTP":19.5106499,"successTP":39.265496,"baseTP":24.6781285,"swingPct":16,"successMove":12,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":26,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":0,"sanity":{"flags":["oversub"],"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","ratioPct":137}]},"lenses":{"comparable":23.25}},"TENX":{"name":"Tenax Therapeutics","subtitle":"Tenax - oral levosimendan PH-HFpEF - LEVEL Ph3 MISSED primary Aug 10 26; ESC Aug 29 post-hoc low-6MWD subgroup +23.7m p=0.0112; LEVEL-2 continues with enrichment - $118M cash to Q2 28","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":51.81,"netCashLocal":118,"cashPS":2.2776,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.23,"bear":0.27,"base":0.48,"bull":1.21,"psychedelic_bull":2.34},"weightedTP":0.41,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfpef","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary"],"modalities":["small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor.troponin_sensitizer","small_molecule","small_molecule.cytoskeletal_motor"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfpef","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfpef","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_hfpef","purity":200},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":3147,"totalTAM":6.975,"totalWTD":0.21483},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 10 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-10","asset":"levosimendan","indication":"ph_hfpef","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-10: LEVEL Phase 3 MISSED primary (6MWD +3.5m vs placebo, p=0.63) and key secondary (KCCQ); only NT-proBNP -49% and RVSP -3.5mmHg biomarkers positive. Released ~19d ahead of the Aug 29 ESC late-breaker.","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"6MWD treatment difference +3.5m, p=0.63 -- no efficacy on the registrational endpoint. Biomarker/hemodynamic signals positive but exploratory. Pivotal registrational path for PH-HFpEF as designed is closed; any salvage requires a new biomarker-enriched trial.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"Tenax topline PR 2026-08-10 (GlobeNewswire) + 8-K.","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/10/3341675/12401/en/tenax-therapeutics-announces-topline-results-from-phase-3-level-clinical-trial-of-tnx-103-in-patients-with-ph-hfpef.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Enrollment 230 pts hit; topline guided Q3 2026. Resolved 2026-08-20: primary+key secondary missed.","failTP":0.246611524,"successTP":5.58163408,"baseTP":0.41340818,"swingPct":1290,"successMove":1250,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":141,"daysOut":null,"materiality":45},{"date":"Aug 29 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-29","asset":"levosimendan","indication":"ph_hfpef","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-29: LEVEL full dataset at ESC Congress late-breaker -- post-hoc baseline-6MWD<333m subgroup (n=119) 6MWD +23.7m vs -2.6m placebo (p=0.0112), RVSP -4.4 vs +0.5 mmHg (p=0.009), NT-proBNP -47% (p<0.0001); company to enrich LEVEL-2","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_outcome":"partial","_outcomeRationale":"Post-hoc subgroup, not registration-grade on its own, but it names the enrichment population and the company confirmed LEVEL-2 continues rather than being shelved. Tier-3 move: base pos 12->14, bull 25->27; narrative rewritten off 'salvage via new trial' to 'enrich the ongoing LEVEL-2'.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"Tenax company PR 2026-08-29 (GlobeNewswire) / ESC Congress 2026 late-breaking session","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/29/3352929/12401/en/tenax-therapeutics-announces-presentation-of-phase-3-level-results-in-late-breaking-scientific-sessions-at-esc-congress-2026.html","failTP":0.228477244,"successTP":0.231054756,"baseTP":0.41340818,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-44,"failMove":-45,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":-45,"daysOut":null,"materiality":45},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"levosimendan","indication":"ph_hfpef","title":"LEVEL-2 long-term outcomes Ph3 -- CONFIRMED CONTINUING with planned protocol population enrichment toward low-6MWD/NT-proBNP-high patients (company statement, ESC Aug 29 2026); next milestone is FDA alignment on the enriched population","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"Tenax ESC 2026 late-breaker PR 2026-08-29","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/29/3352929/12401/en/tenax-therapeutics-announces-presentation-of-phase-3-level-results-in-late-breaking-scientific-sessions-at-esc-congress-2026.html","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Rolled from 2026-09-30 on the 2026-08-31 freshness review: company confirmed continuation + enrichment rather than \"continuation under review\".","failTP":0.309596923,"successTP":4.95215416,"baseTP":0.41340818,"swingPct":337,"successMove":329,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":40,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"levosimendan","indication":"ph_hfpef","title":"Levosimendan BLA submission -- voided by LEVEL primary miss (no registrational efficacy dataset); contingent on a new biomarker-enriched trial","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":85,"_source":"curated","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.tenaxthera.com/news-events/news-releases","_addedAt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Conditional on LEVEL success; company guides BLA H1 2027","failTP":0.310593441,"successTP":5.91604528,"baseTP":0.41340818,"swingPct":271,"successMove":266,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":0.38}},"TEVA":{"name":"Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.","subtitle":"World's largest generics maker | FY25 ~$16B (Generics ~$10B + Branded $6B: Austedo $1.7B HD + Ajovy CGRP migraine + Copaxone tail) | Olanzapine LAI Ph3 done; ecopipam Tourette NDA PR, PDUFA Q1-27","currency":"USD","country":"IL","region":"MEA.IL","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":1165,"netCashLocal":-12938,"cashPS":-11.1056,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.93,"bear":16.22,"base":33.85,"bull":57.41,"psychedelic_bull":91.02},"weightedTP":32.37,"meta":{"areas":["cns.movement.tardive_dyskinesia","cns","cns.movement","cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.generalized","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.teva_teva_us_generics_other","_established_products","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.teva_teva_eu_generics_other","_established_products.teva_teva_intl_markets_other","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","oncology","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.lymphoma.fl","oncology.lymphoma.mzl","oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos","oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","oncology.supportive_care","nephrology.ckd.anemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.retina","_established_products.teva_teva_biosimilars_other","cns.movement.tourette"],"modalities":["small_molecule.transporter.vmat2_inhibitor","small_molecule","small_molecule.transporter","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cgrp","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.gpcr.atypical_antipsychotic","small_molecule.gpcr","peptide.hormone_analog.peptide_mixture","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","_diversified.biosimilars.heritage","_diversified.biosimilars","small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_d2_lai","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tl1a","small_molecule.gpcr.dopamine_d1_antagonist"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":54},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":27},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":5},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":3},{"area":"cns.movement.tardive_dyskinesia","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"cns.movement.tourette","purity":1},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_intl_markets_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_biosimilars_other","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":55},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":28},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":17},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":15},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":15},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":14},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":5},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":4},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":4},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":3},{"area":"cns.movement.tardive_dyskinesia","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":2},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":2},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":1},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":1},{"area":"cns.movement.tourette","purity":1},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_intl_markets_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_biosimilars_other","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.movement.tardive_dyskinesia","purity":124},{"area":"cns.movement","purity":70},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":31},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":23},{"area":"cns.movement.tourette","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":15},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":5},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":3},{"area":"cns.movement.cervical_dystonia","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_intl_markets_other","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.1l","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.fl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.mzl","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":0},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":0},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina.nvamd","purity":0},{"area":"ophthalmology.retina","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.teva_teva_biosimilars_other","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":872.2092,"totalWTD":853.223237},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"tev_749","indication":"tev749_schiz","title":"REPORTED: TEV-749 LAI olanzapine SOLARIS Phase 3 + filing","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://ir.tevapharm.com/news-and-events/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/U-S--Food-and-Drug-Administration-FDA-Accepts-Tevas-New-Drug-Application-NDA-for-Olanzapine-Extended-Release-Injectable-Suspension-TEV-749-for-the-Once-Monthly-Treatment-of-Schizophrenia-in-Adults/default.aspx","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Phase 3 SOLARIS positive: through Week 56 clinical effectiveness maintained, safety consistent with other olanzapine formulations, and NO post-injection delirium/sedation syndrome (PDSS) observed -- key differentiator vs existing olanzapine LAI. FDA accepted the TEV-749 (once-monthly subQ olanzapine ER) NDA on Feb 20, 2026. Outcome fell within the config's success case; no valuation change.","failTP":23.8665713,"successTP":39.6813076,"baseTP":32.3745935,"swingPct":49,"successMove":23,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":87,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"austedo","indication":"td","title":"Austedo XR market share + Ingrezza (NBIX) competitive dynamics + Huntington's chorea label depth","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.tevapharm.com/investors","_confidence":"high","failTP":32.3745935,"successTP":32.3745935,"baseTP":32.3745935,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"uzedy","indication":"schizo_lai","title":"Uzedy LAI uptake + TEV-749 olanzapine LAI FDA decision (NDA accepted Feb 20 2026; US launch guided Q4 2026 if approved) -- ROLLED from Sep 30","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.tevapharm.com/investors","_confidence":"medium","failTP":32.3745935,"successTP":32.3745935,"baseTP":32.3745935,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"ecopipam","indication":"ecopi_ts","title":"Ecopipam PDUFA -- FDA target action date Q1 2027 for pediatric Tourette syndrome (NDA accepted with Priority Review 19-Aug-2026); would be the first new Tourette mechanism in over 50 years","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Teva IR press release 2026-08-19 (FDA accepts NDA + grants Priority Review for ecopipam)","_confidence":"high","failTP":31.6150238,"successTP":32.8813896,"baseTP":32.3745935,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":90,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"duvakitug","indication":"duva_uc","title":"Duvakitug TL1A UC Phase 3 readout (Sanofi partnership)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"TEVA/SNY pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":27.8948209,"successTP":36.4800682,"baseTP":32.3745935,"swingPct":27,"successMove":13,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":13669,"lenses":{"comparable":53.65,"eeRel":1.0698,"peRel":0.5283},"readouts":[{"a":"uzedy","ind":"schizo_lai","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":8.77215396,"lo":1.31896921,"hi":15.304289,"pBeatBest":0.16775,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12},{"a":"tev_749","ind":"tev749_schiz","ds":"2026-06-30","area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","endpoint":"panss_total_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":8.29740637,"lo":-0.743556917,"hi":14.9956292,"pBeatBest":0.14745,"bestDrug":"olanzapine","bestValue":12},{"a":"duvakitug","ind":"duva_uc","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":10.1339539,"lo":-3.83522772,"hi":18.2015067,"pBeatBest":0.20785,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7}]},"TGTX":{"name":"TG Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Briumvi anti-CD20 MS pure-play | FY25 $616M; FY26 US guide RAISED $890-905M (Q2 $227.7M) | SC Briumvi Ph3 topline YE26/early 27 | azer-cel PMS data H2'26 | $750M term loan","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":153.07,"netCashLocal":-148.6,"cashPS":-0.9708,"tps":{"mega_bear":16,"bear":27.27,"base":44.99,"bull":73.51,"psychedelic_bull":125.53},"weightedTP":49.35,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd20","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.car_t_cd19","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":200},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":50,"totalTAM":70.2,"totalWTD":46.66896},"catalysts":[{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"briumvi_sc","indication":"rms_briumvi_sc","title":"SC Briumvi Ph3 PK non-inferiority topline (YE2026/early 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"TGTX pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":41.1253387,"successTP":56.0510026,"baseTP":49.3468656,"swingPct":31,"successMove":14,"failMove":-17,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":20},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"briumvi","indication":"rms_briumvi","title":"Briumvi label expansions (frontline 1L + pediatric); EU launches via Neuraxpharm","type":"label_expansion","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"TGTX pipeline + Neuraxpharm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":49.3468656,"successTP":49.3468656,"baseTP":49.3468656,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":607,"lenses":{"comparable":50.89,"eeRel":0.2332,"peRel":1.0987},"readouts":[{"a":"briumvi_sc","ind":"rms_briumvi_sc","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","endpoint":"arr_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":39.6538111,"lo":-10.9986769,"hi":90,"pBeatBest":0.16275,"bestDrug":"natalizumab","bestValue":68}]},"TLRY":{"name":"Tilray Brands","subtitle":"Diversified cannabis + beverage + pharma + hemp: FY2026 record net rev $915.5M (+11%), Q4 $281.7M; FY27 adj EBITDA guide $68-75M; cash ~$235M vs ~$194M debt; ~139M sh","currency":"USD","country":"CA","region":"AMERICAS.CA","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":139,"netCashLocal":40.9,"cashPS":0.2942,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.33,"bear":5.61,"base":8.06,"bull":15.67,"psychedelic_bull":24.13},"weightedTP":9,"meta":{"areas":["_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["_diversified.mixed.cannabis_beverage_pharma","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":200}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":8.8,"totalWTD":8.8},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 28, 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-28","asset":"tilray_diversified","indication":"tlry_diversified_portfolio","title":"REPORTED: Tilray FY2026 final results Jul 28 2026 -- net revenue $915.5M (+11%), BELOW the $1.0-1.1B guide but a company record; Q4 $281.7M (+25.5%) beat; cash ~$235M, net debt cut to $0.7M; US cannabis reform still pending","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/28/3334721/0/en/Tilray-Brands-Delivers-Record-Fiscal-2026-Revenue-and-Adjusted-EBITDA-Demonstrating-the-Strength-of-its-Diversified-Global-Platform-Across-Cannabis-Beverage-Hospitality-and-Wellnes.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","failTP":5.21740565,"successTP":14.9505265,"baseTP":8.99751728,"swingPct":32,"successMove":20,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29},{"date":"Q1 FY2027","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"tilray_diversified","indication":"tlry_diversified_portfolio","title":"Tilray fiscal Q1 2027 results (quarter ended Aug 31 2026) -- first print after the FY26 miss; watch beverage/BrewDog integration, international medical growth and net-debt trajectory","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.tilray.com/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.21740565,"successTP":14.9505265,"baseTP":8.99751728,"swingPct":32,"successMove":20,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":16.6}},"TLX":{"name":"Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited","subtitle":"Australian radiopharma: Illuccix Ga-68 PSMA-PET (FY26 guide US$950-970M); Gozellix/Pixclara/Zircaix launches; BiPASS Ph3 pre-biopsy fully enrolled Sep'26; ProstACT Ph3; Pixclara FDA-approved Sep 14'26","currency":"AUD","country":"AU","region":"OCEANIA","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":338.8,"netCashLocal":-527.3,"cashPS":-1.5564,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.07,"bear":6.51,"base":12.47,"bull":24.11,"psychedelic_bull":46.84},"weightedTP":15.69,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","oncology.brain","oncology.genitourinary.rcc.adjuvant","oncology.genitourinary.rcc"],"modalities":["radiopharmaceutical.diagnostic.psma_pet","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.diagnostic","radiopharmaceutical.diagnostic.fet_pet","radiopharmaceutical.diagnostic.zr89_carbonix","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.lutetium_psma","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.diversified"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":76},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":49},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.adjuvant","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":7}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":70},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":61},{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":30},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.adjuvant","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":9}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.brain.idh_mutant_lgg","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.adjuvant","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":24,"rarePurityWtd":30,"optionality":24,"totalTAM":27.6437,"totalWTD":22.3720821},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 1 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"prostact_tlx591","indication":"prostact_mcrpc","title":"REPORTED: ProstACT Global Ph3 Part 1 safety/dosimetry ASCO 2026 LBA success (n=36, acceptable safety, no new signals); Part 2 randomized expansion enrolling","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Telix Mar 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"ASCO 2026 LBA Jun 1 2026: n=36 TLX591-Tx + SOC. Acceptable safety/tolerability, no new safety signals, no significant kidney toxicity (drug primarily liver-cleared). Part 2 randomized expansion now dosing in jurisdictions with regulatory approval.","_outcomeSource":"https://telixpharma.com/news-views/prostact-global-phase-3-part-1-data-presented-in-late-breaking-oral-session-at-asco-2026/","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":14.5112268,"successTP":16.412409,"baseTP":15.6851465,"swingPct":12,"successMove":5,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"Sep 11 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-11","asset":"pixclara","indication":"pix_glioma","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-14: Pixclara (TLX101-CDx, FET-PET) FDA APPROVED Sep 14 2026, three days after the Sep 11 PDUFA -- characterising recurrent/progressive glioma vs treatment-related change, adults + children >=1 month. No assumption change: asset already commercial-classified at 100/100 in the SOTP","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":96,"_source":"Telix Apr 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_sourceUrl":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3360898/0/en/fda-approves-telix-s-brain-cancer-imaging-drug-pixclara.html","failTP":15.6851465,"successTP":15.6851465,"baseTP":15.6851465,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"illuccix","indication":"illuccix_prostate","title":"Q3 2026 results + revenue trajectory vs FY26 $950-970M guide","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Telix reports quarterly; Q3 print is the bellwether for whether FY26 guide is on/off track and Gozellix/RLS contribution","failTP":15.6851465,"successTP":15.6851465,"baseTP":15.6851465,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"tlx_pipeline","indication":"tlx_pipe","title":"TLX592 (225Ac-PSMA targeted alpha therapy) first-in-human dosing initiation -- mCRPC post-Lu-177 progression","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.ainvest.com/news/telix-pharmaceuticals-navigating-fda-setbacks-strategic-pathways-race-radiopharmaceutical-leadership-2508/","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"TLX592 alpha-PSMA targeted alpha therapy; Telix preparing for FIH dosing in patients who progressed on Lu-177 PSMA therapy; Cu-64 PET used as surrogate to confirm biodistribution","failTP":15.6412938,"successTP":15.7163821,"baseTP":15.6851465,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":24,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"zircaix","indication":"zircaix_rcc","title":"Zircaix resubmission to FDA (post-CRL); PDUFA date TBD pending manufacturing remediation","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Telix pipeline","_confidence":"low","_rationale":"Manufacturing-related CRL in 2025; Telix Q1 2026 update indicated resubmission strategy still being finalized; no public PDUFA date as of Jun 2026","failTP":15.6851465,"successTP":15.6851465,"baseTP":15.6851465,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"illuccix","indication":"illuccix_prostate","title":"FY26 guide US$950-970M revenue + Gozellix scale + ProstACT enrollment","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Telix FY25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":15.6851465,"successTP":15.6851465,"baseTP":15.6851465,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"illuccix","indication":"illuccix_prostate","title":"BiPASS Ph3 topline + NDA submission -- 68Ga-PSMA-PET + MRI pre-biopsy prostate detection (350 pts enrolled Sep 1'26; FDA aligned on NDA pathway)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/01/3354739/0/en/telix-completes-enrollment-in-phase-3-bipass-study-aligns-with-fda-on-nda-pathway.html","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Sep 1 2026 PR: BiPASS completed enrollment (n=350) and Telix has aligned with FDA on an NDA pathway that would support reimbursement for pre-biopsy 68Ga-PSMA-PET. Operational milestone only -- no efficacy data yet, so assumptions unchanged. A positive readout plus an NDA-backed pre-biopsy label would materially widen the Illuccix/Gozellix addressable population beyond the current staging/recurrence setting; a miss leaves the franchise on its existing label.","failTP":15.6851465,"successTP":15.6851465,"baseTP":15.6851465,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"prostact_tlx591","indication":"prostact_mcrpc","title":"ProstACT Global Ph3 Part 2 (randomized expansion) efficacy readout -- rPFS / OS in mCRPC (FDA Type B alignment Jul 2026 on Part 2 registrational protocol/SAP/safety; US start pending IND amendment review)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":94,"_source":"https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-alignment-to-advance-prostact-global-phase-3-trial/","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Part 2 randomized treatment expansion actively dosing post-Part-1 readout; primary efficacy readout 12-18mo post enrollment completion. FDA Type B meeting (Jul 2 2026) confirmed Part 1 safety/dosimetry sufficient to progress + aligned Part 2 design (2:1 randomized, ~490pts, TLX591-Tx + SoC ARPI/docetaxel) -- regulatory de-risking, no efficacy data, US initiation still gated on IND amendment","failTP":14.4188803,"successTP":16.506669,"baseTP":15.6851465,"swingPct":13,"successMove":5,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6}],"salesM2025":804,"lenses":{"comparable":13.46,"eeRel":0.1761,"peRel":0.204},"readouts":[{"a":"prostact_tlx591","ind":"prostact_mcrpc","ds":"2026-06-01","area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","endpoint":"rpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.8429752,"lo":1.73268019,"hi":13.5033509,"pBeatBest":0.06635,"bestDrug":"177Lu-PSMA-617 (pre-taxane)","bestValue":12.02},{"a":"illuccix","ind":"illuccix_prostate","ds":"2027-03-31","area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","endpoint":"rpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":7.88280946,"lo":1.97583799,"hi":13.778361,"pBeatBest":0.0862,"bestDrug":"177Lu-PSMA-617 (pre-taxane)","bestValue":12.02},{"a":"prostact_tlx591","ind":"prostact_mcrpc","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","endpoint":"rpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":6.82436858,"lo":1.72631271,"hi":13.4670792,"pBeatBest":0.06445,"bestDrug":"177Lu-PSMA-617 (pre-taxane)","bestValue":12.02}]},"TNGX":{"name":"Tango Therapeutics","subtitle":"PRMT5 for MTAP-del: TNG462 + RVMD daraxonrasib Jun8 HIT 92% ORR + 90% PFS6mo PDAC -> 1L Ph3 design 2H26; ESMO Oct'26; TNG456 GBM Ph1 data 2H26; cash ~$1.0B (Jun'26)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":168.61,"netCashLocal":1000,"cashPS":5.9308,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.96,"bear":8.07,"base":13.84,"bull":18.26,"psychedelic_bull":22.45},"weightedTP":13.77,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.brain.gbm","oncology.brain","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.prmt5","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.epigenetic.corest","small_molecule.epigenetic"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":146},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":73},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":157},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.brain.gbm","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.brain","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":116,"totalTAM":27.2767,"totalWTD":12.6236207},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-08","asset":"tng462","indication":"tng462_pdac","title":"REPORTED: TNG462 vopimetostat + RVMD daraxonrasib (RAS(ON)) COMBO Ph1/2 HIT -- 92% ORR + 90% PFS@6mo in MTAP-del PDAC; supports Ph3 1L PDAC","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"_outcome":"success","_outcomeNote":"Jun 8 2026 globenewswire: 92% ORR + 90% PFS at 6mo (mPFS not reached) in MTAP-del PDAC 2L+ combination with Revolution Medicines daraxonrasib. Generally well-tolerated. Supports rapid advancement to Ph3 1L MTAP-del PDAC (vs prior 2L pivotal plan). Crosses to RVMD.","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.61704492,"successTP":7.91017583,"baseTP":13.767179,"swingPct":9,"successMove":-43,"failMove":-52,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":-44,"daysOut":null,"materiality":47},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"tng462","indication":"tng462_pdac","title":"RESOLVED (SUPERSEDED): TNG462 vopimetostat MTAP-del PDAC 2L mono pivotal initiation -- dropped from company guidance after Jun 8 2026 (focus is the 1L vopimetostat + daraxonrasib Ph3, design finalized 2H26); no assumption change","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://tangotx.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tango-therapeutics-reports-positive-tng462-clinical-data-and/","_confidence":"high","failTP":9.3348981,"successTP":15.8700662,"baseTP":13.767179,"swingPct":14,"successMove":5,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"tng456","indication":"tng456_gbm","title":"TNG456 brain-penetrant PRMT5 Ph1 GBM initial safety + efficacy","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":22,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":62,"_source":"https://tangotx.gcs-web.com/news-releases","_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.5968404,"successTP":14.0046619,"baseTP":13.767179,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"2H 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"tng462","indication":"tng462_pdac","title":"Vopimetostat + daraxonrasib 1L MTAP-del PDAC Ph3 design finalized / trial initiation","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001819133/000119312526343434/tngx-ex99_1.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.61704492,"successTP":7.91017583,"baseTP":13.767179,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-13,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":85,"expectedReturn":-13,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":13.82}},"TNXP":{"name":"Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.","subtitle":"TONMYA (TNX-102 SL) fibromyalgia FDA Aug'25: Q2'26 net sales $11M (+197% q/q), 12,592 Rx (+100% q/q), 136M covered lives; Zembrace+Tosymra; TNX-1500 (mosdaprubart) anti-CD40L Ph2 transplant H2'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":17.15,"netCashLocal":176.2,"cashPS":10.2741,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.74,"bear":8.11,"base":16.98,"bull":32.58,"psychedelic_bull":55.63},"weightedTP":20.08,"meta":{"areas":["cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns","cns.pain","cns.pain.migraine","immunology.transplant.solid_organ","immunology","immunology.transplant"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.cyclobenzaprine_5ht2","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.triptan_5ht1","biologic.antibody.mab.cd40l_antagonist_fc_modified","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":83},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":72},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":64},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":45},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":36}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":116},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":89},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":62},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":22},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":11}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":186},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":98},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.transplant.solid_organ","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.transplant","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":39,"totalTAM":14.981,"totalWTD":10.76042},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 01, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"tonmya","indication":"tonmya_fm","title":"RESOLVED: TONMYA launch trajectory + GPO uptake -- 2nd GPO effective Jun 1 2026, coverage to 52M US lives","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Tonix secured a second GPO agreement effective June 1, 2026, expanding TONMYA commercial coverage to 52 million U.S. lives, validating rapid payer uptake for the first fibromyalgia medicine approved i","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":4.62894316,"successTP":7.3714419,"baseTP":20.0831998,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-19,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-19,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-29","asset":"tonmya","indication":"tonmya_fm","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-29: TNX-102 SL HORIZON Ph2 in MDD -- first patient enrolled (6-wk, ~360 pts, ~30 US sites, MADRS Wk6 primary, 5.6mg SL). New large indication beyond fibromyalgia (not separately modeled -- upside optionality)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/29/3318861/28908/en/Tonix-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-First-Patient-Enrolled-in-Phase-2-HORIZON-Study-of-TNX-102-SL-for-the-Treatment-of-Major-Depressive-Disorder-MDD.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"TNX-102 SL MDD Ph2 initiated (first patient enrolled). Milestone only; MDD not modeled as a separate indication -- pipeline optionality, no assumption change.","failTP":4.62894316,"successTP":7.3714419,"baseTP":20.0831998,"swingPct":4,"successMove":-19,"failMove":-23,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-19,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tnx1500","indication":"tnx1500_kidney","title":"TNX-1500 Ph2 kidney transplant init (MGH) -- DATE SLIPPED H1->H2 2026 (pending FDA clearance of MGH IND; first patient not yet dosed as of Jun'26)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.tonixpharma.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1599","_confidence":"high","failTP":19.2668836,"successTP":19.8521609,"baseTP":20.0831998,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":13.1,"lenses":{"comparable":24.97}},"TORNTPHARM":{"name":"Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (post JB Chem amalgamation)","subtitle":"Indian branded + EU/Brazil specialty (#5 IPM, #4 cardio) | FY25 INR 116B / ~$1.4B | India $700M (Shelcal/Unienzyme/Chymoral) + Germany generics + US OTC (PocketShot)","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":344,"netCashLocal":-142800,"cashPS":-415.1163,"tps":{"mega_bear":1709.3,"bear":2710.47,"base":3858.14,"bull":5933.72,"psychedelic_bull":9547.67},"weightedTP":4194.14,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_india_other","_established_products","_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_brazil_other","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_us_other","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_germany_other","_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_row_cdmo_other"],"modalities":["_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":80},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":40},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":18},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":13},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_brazil_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_us_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_germany_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_row_cdmo_other","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":80},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":40},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":18},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":13},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_brazil_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_us_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_germany_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.torntpharm_torrent_row_cdmo_other","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":979.0945,"totalWTD":979.0945},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"torrent_india","indication":"torrent_india_outpatient_generic","title":"JB Chemicals NCLT amalgamation completion (#2 Indian pharma)","type":"ma_close","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Torrent IR; CCI cleared Oct 2025; SH vote Apr 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":4194.13953,"successTP":4194.13953,"baseTP":4194.13953,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY26","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"torrent_india","indication":"torrent_india_outpatient_generic","title":"JB Chem cost + revenue synergies (mgmt guide INR 350 Cr)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Torrent JB integration plan","_confidence":"medium","failTP":4194.13953,"successTP":4194.13953,"baseTP":4194.13953,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":1612,"lenses":{"comparable":1025.38,"eeRel":0.3433,"peRel":0.4019}},"TRAX":{"name":"First Tracks Biotherapeutics","subtitle":"AnaptysBio spin-off Apr'26 | rosnilimab Ph2b RA done, EoP2 constructive -- but seeking PARTNER / out-licence / asset financing, not self-funded Ph3 | ANB033 celiac Q4'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":34.89,"netCashLocal":168,"cashPS":4.8151,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.91,"bear":15.92,"base":33.98,"bull":68.07,"psychedelic_bull":98.29},"weightedTP":34.11,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.inflammatory_gi.celiac","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_pd1_agonist","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd122","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_bdca2"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":114},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":45},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.celiac","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":23},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":155},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":77},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.celiac","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":182},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":91},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.celiac","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.eoe","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":280,"totalTAM":54.7335,"totalWTD":14.4217965},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"rosnilimab","indication":"rosni_ra","title":"Rosnilimab RA path decision post-EoP2 -- global PARTNERSHIP / out-licence / asset financing or self-funded Ph3 initiation (company explicitly weighing all four)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/first-tracks-biotherapeutics-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-business-update","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.0368697,"successTP":61.8093085,"baseTP":34.1066154,"swingPct":40,"successMove":24,"failMove":-16,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"anb033","indication":"anb033_celiac","title":"ANB033 Ph1b celiac disease Cohort 1 (gluten challenge) top-line -- enrollment COMPLETE, data reaffirmed for Q4 2026 (Cohort 2 Q1 2027)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":18,"success_pos":35,"success_apr":48,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/first-tracks-biotherapeutics-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-business-update","_confidence":"high","failTP":31.5431825,"successTP":35.6332035,"baseTP":34.1066154,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Q3 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"anb033","indication":"anb033_celiac","title":"ANB033 Ph1b eosinophilic esophagitis top-line (Q3 2027)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":65,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/first-tracks-biotherapeutics-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-business-update","_confidence":"medium","failTP":31.8198444,"successTP":36.4992403,"baseTP":34.1066154,"swingPct":10,"successMove":5,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":51.59}},"TRDA":{"name":"Entrada Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"EEV oligonucleotide delivery: ENTR-601-44 DMD ex44 Q2 26 dystrophin 2.36% UNDERWHELM (vs Sarepta); higher-dose Q4 26 recovery + Vertex DM1 partnership ($250M up + ms) | Cash $255M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":38.8,"netCashLocal":223,"cashPS":5.7474,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.11,"bear":5.34,"base":8.23,"bull":13.21,"psychedelic_bull":19.99},"weightedTP":7.81,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon44","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.eev_pmo_exon44","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.eev_pmo_exon45","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.eev_oligo_dm1"],"focus":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":164},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":18},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon44","purity":7}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":164},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":18},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon44","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dm1","purity":131},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":100},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd","purity":34},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon44","purity":17},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.dmd.exon45","purity":17}],"phase":"phase1","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":355,"totalTAM":8.2625,"totalWTD":1.81775},"catalysts":[{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"entr601_45","indication":"601_45_dmd","title":"ENTR-601-45 Ph1 first cohort initial dystrophin/PK data","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.33263375,"successTP":8.08557973,"baseTP":7.81306112,"swingPct":6,"successMove":2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"entr701","indication":"701_dm1","title":"VX-670 (ENTR-701) DM1 -- Vertex-led GALILEO Ph1/2 MAD portion FULLY ENROLLED and dosing; Vertex guides results in H2 2026 (pulled in from the config's H1'27 placeholder)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.64620391,"successTP":10.6501473,"baseTP":7.81306112,"swingPct":77,"successMove":36,"failMove":-41,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":39},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"entr601_44","indication":"601_44_dmd","title":"ENTR-601-44 Cohort 1 open-label extension data","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.29343292,"successTP":7.65380023,"baseTP":7.81306112,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"entr601_44","indication":"601_44_dmd","title":"ENTR-601-44 higher-dose 12mg/kg cohort (Cohort 2) readout (CRITICAL RECOVERY BINARY) -- SLIPPED from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 per Q2 PR Aug 5 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"high","failTP":7.31607683,"successTP":8.19862328,"baseTP":7.81306112,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.2}},"TRVI":{"name":"Trevi Therapeutics","subtitle":"Chronic cough: Haduvio (nalbuphine ER) -- CORAL Ph2b IPF -43.3% pbo-adj + RIVER Ph2a RCC positive; FDA EOP-2 aligned Mar'26; Ph3 OCEAN-1 INITIATED Q2'26 + OCEAN-2 guided Q3'26 (topline H1'28); LAKE Ph","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":156.6,"netCashLocal":318.9,"cashPS":2.0364,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.91,"bear":4.1,"base":8.75,"bull":14.4,"psychedelic_bull":18.65},"weightedTP":9.2,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","respiratory.inflammatory.chronic_cough","respiratory.inflammatory"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.opioid_kappa_agonist_mu_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":146},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":73},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.chronic_cough","purity":54},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":27}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":162},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":81},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.chronic_cough","purity":38},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":159},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":79},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.chronic_cough","purity":41},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":21}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":98,"totalTAM":14.155,"totalWTD":7.163663},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-09","asset":"haduvio","indication":"haduvio_ipf_cough","title":"REPORTED 2026-03-09 (SUCCESS): End-of-Phase-2 meeting with FDA COMPLETED -- alignment gained on the Haduvio development programme for IPF-related chronic cough; the two Ph3 trials launch off this alignment","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.33662094,"successTP":4.15185621,"baseTP":9.20434548,"swingPct":10,"successMove":-27,"failMove":-37,"yourPoS":56,"expectedReturn":-32,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"haduvio","indication":"haduvio_rcc","title":"REPORTED (Q2 2026): Haduvio Ph2b refractory chronic cough trial INITIATED -- named LAKE; sample-size re-estimation Q4 2026","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TRVI/trevi-therapeutics-provides-strategic-updates-ahead-of-annual-life-qd26wtdjbnv7.html","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. Company guided Phase 2b RCC initiation 'first half of 2026' but no confirmation of actual start/first-patient-in published as of 2026-07-06. Rolled ~1 quarter to Q3 2026.","_outcome":"success","failTP":6.48443772,"successTP":8.14492121,"baseTP":9.20434548,"swingPct":18,"successMove":-12,"failMove":-30,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"haduvio","indication":"haduvio_ipf_cough","title":"REPORTED Q2 2026 (on track): Haduvio Ph3 #1 OCEAN-1 INITIATED in IPF-related chronic cough -- randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, global; nalbuphine ER 54mg BID; ~300 patients followed 52 weeks; primary = relative change from baseline in 24-hour cough frequency by objective cough monitor","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.33662094,"successTP":4.15185621,"baseTP":9.20434548,"swingPct":20,"successMove":-55,"failMove":-75,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":-61,"daysOut":null,"materiality":65},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"haduvio","indication":"haduvio_rcc","title":"Haduvio Ph3 #2 OCEAN-2 initiation in IPF-related chronic cough -- company-guided Q3 2026 (same design as OCEAN-1)","type":"phase3_start","failTP":6.48443772,"successTP":8.14492121,"baseTP":9.20434548,"swingPct":5,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"haduvio","indication":"haduvio_rcc","title":"Haduvio LAKE Ph2b RCC topline (refractory chronic cough) -- guided H2 2027 (was mid-2027 as \"RIVER Ph2b\")","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":62,"success_apr":70,"_confidence":"high","failTP":6.54363832,"successTP":10.6822846,"baseTP":9.20434548,"swingPct":45,"successMove":16,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"haduvio","indication":"haduvio_ipf_cough","title":"Haduvio Ph3 #2 IPF-related chronic cough topline (initiated H2'26)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/17/3257652/0/en/Trevi-Therapeutics-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Year-End-2025-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Updates.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.56965274,"successTP":13.5125147,"baseTP":9.20434548,"swingPct":108,"successMove":47,"failMove":-61,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":17,"daysOut":null,"materiality":65},{"date":"H1 2028","dateSort":"2028-03-31","asset":"haduvio","indication":"haduvio_ipf_cough","title":"Haduvio Ph3 #1 IPF cough topline (DOMINANT BINARY)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_confidence":"high","failTP":2.37889974,"successTP":12.8901704,"baseTP":9.20434548,"swingPct":114,"successMove":40,"failMove":-74,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":65}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":15.97},"readouts":[{"a":"haduvio","ind":"haduvio_ipf_cough","ds":"2026-06-30","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":66.0351453,"lo":-67.1421812,"hi":252.554642,"pBeatBest":0.0995,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193},{"a":"haduvio","ind":"haduvio_ipf_cough","ds":"2027-12-31","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":66.1355178,"lo":-66.088089,"hi":256.303229,"pBeatBest":0.10505,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193},{"a":"haduvio","ind":"haduvio_ipf_cough","ds":"2028-03-31","area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","endpoint":"fvc_decline_reduction_ml","unit":"mL","src":"class","med":65.4409702,"lo":-66.195777,"hi":255.687649,"pBeatBest":0.1026,"bestDrug":"pirfenidone","bestValue":193}]},"TSHA":{"name":"Taysha Gene Therapies","subtitle":"Single-asset TSHA-102 (mini-MECP2 AAV9) Rett -- BTD+RPD; REVEAL/ASPIRE dosing done Q2'26; Part A 12-mo n=12 + PPQ Q4'26; BLA 2027; cash $277M to 2028","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":325.83,"netCashLocal":455.4,"cashPS":1.3977,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.12,"bear":1.83,"base":3.09,"bull":4.29,"psychedelic_bull":5.27},"weightedTP":2.76,"meta":{"areas":["cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","cns","cns.neurodevelopmental"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav.aav9_mecp2","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_therapy.aav"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":200},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":200},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental.rett","purity":200},{"area":"cns.neurodevelopmental","purity":100}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":71,"totalTAM":3.114,"totalWTD":1.82169},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q2 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"tsha102","indication":"tsha102_rett","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-30: TSHA-102 REVEAL pivotal dosing COMPLETE + supportive longer-term data (Jun 22 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/22/3315248/0/en/Taysha-Gene-Therapies-Announces-Completion-of-Dosing-in-REVEAL-Pivotal-Trial","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"REVEAL pivotal dosing complete (17 dosed; ~29 across program). Supportive longer-term Part A data (n=12, ages 6-21): 100% gained/regained >=1 developmental milestone by 12mo, durable/deepening effect, clean safety (no treatment-related SAEs/DLTs). This is an OPERATIONAL milestone, NOT pivotal efficacy topline -- base pos/apr already at catalyst success (75/78), so no numeric change. 6-month interim topline + FDA BLA feedback now guided to H1 2027 (was H2 2026). Source: GlobeNewswire PR + 8-K Jun 22 2026.","failTP":1.94656552,"successTP":3.65719484,"baseTP":2.76346581,"swingPct":19,"successMove":10,"failMove":-9,"yourPoS":59,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-30","asset":"tsha102","indication":"tsha102_rett","title":"TSHA-102 Part A 12-month data update (n=12, longer-term efficacy + safety)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TSHA/taysha-gene-therapies-announces-progress-across-tsha-102-pivotal-zbu8pim3yi3e.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.27628548,"successTP":3.75064864,"baseTP":2.76346581,"swingPct":90,"successMove":36,"failMove":-54,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":14,"daysOut":null,"materiality":57},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tsha102","indication":"tsha102_rett","title":"TSHA-102 BLA-enabling PPQ manufacturing campaign completion","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":72,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TSHA/taysha-gene-therapies-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-0oby674r3xni.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.8641998,"successTP":3.65090869,"baseTP":2.76346581,"swingPct":20,"successMove":10,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":59,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"tsha102","indication":"tsha102_rett","title":"TSHA-102 BLA submission target (full Rett, ages >=2)","type":"bla_submission","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TSHA/taysha-gene-therapies-announces-progress-across-tsha-102-pivotal-zbu8pim3yi3e.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":1.44180972,"successTP":3.84889495,"baseTP":2.76346581,"swingPct":17,"successMove":8,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":59,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":4.68}},"TVTX":{"name":"Travere Therapeutics","subtitle":"FILSPARI IgAN + FSGS dual commercial: Q2'26 US net product sales $141M (+96% YoY), 2,012 new patient starts | pegtibatinase Ph3 HARMONY still ENROLLING -- topline SLIPPED to 2H 2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":91,"netCashLocal":320,"cashPS":3.5165,"tps":{"mega_bear":24.57,"bear":51.5,"base":79.36,"bull":120.95,"psychedelic_bull":184.83},"weightedTP":88.12,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.homocystinuria","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.amino_acid"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.eta_at1_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme.cbs","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.enzyme"],"focus":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":137},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":92},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":47},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.homocystinuria","purity":16},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":143},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":96},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":50},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.homocystinuria","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":145},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":87},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":28},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid.homocystinuria","purity":27},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.amino_acid","purity":13}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":5,"totalTAM":9.9455,"totalWTD":9.51375},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-06","asset":"filspari_igan","indication":"igan","title":"REPORTED 2026-08: Q2'26 FILSPARI US net product sales $141M (+96% YoY) with 2,012 new patient starts -- first full quarter of the dual IgAN + FSGS label","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001438533/000143853326000062/a2026q2_8-kxex991.htm","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Commercial assets already carry pos/apr 100; the factual update is salesM, which was refreshed. Growth of +96% YoY validates the base-case dual-indication ramp toward $1B.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":88.1153387,"successTP":88.1153387,"baseTP":88.1153387,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q2-Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-07","asset":"filspari_fsgs","indication":"fsgs","title":"REPORTED: Q2 2026 first quarter of FSGS commercial launch (earnings)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-08-07: Q2'26 earnings beat -- FILSPARI US net sales $141.1M (+~96% YoY) on FSGS launch (approved Apr'26) + IgAN growth; total rev $169.6M; 2,012 new patient start forms; early FSGS uptake above plan. Source: StockTitan/Travere Q2'26.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":88.1153387,"successTP":88.1153387,"baseTP":88.1153387,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"pegtibatinase","indication":"hcu","title":"HARMONY Phase 3 enrollment milestone update","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":78,"failTP":86.7396013,"successTP":89.1481281,"baseTP":88.1153387,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-31","asset":"pegtibatinase","indication":"hcu","title":"Pegtibatinase HARMONY Phase 3 HCU topline -- SLIPPED from Sep'26; Travere now guides 2H 2027 (study still enrolling ~70 pts)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://ir.travere.com/press-releases/news-details/2026/Travere-Therapeutics-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx","_sourceUrl":"https://www.pharmiweb.com/press-release/2026-02-20-3/travere-therapeutics-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial-results","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"Enrollment restarted February 2026, 24-week trial expecting topline data H2 2026","failTP":85.3672888,"successTP":89.6769316,"baseTP":88.1153387,"swingPct":5,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":530,"lenses":{"comparable":105.2}},"TYRA":{"name":"Tyra Biosciences","subtitle":"Dabogratinib (TYRA-300) FGFR3-sel: SURF302 IR NMIBC Ph2 HIT Sep'26 (60mg ORR 79%, CR 57%) -> adjuvant Ph3 2027; BEACH301 ACH sentinel end-Q1'27; SURF303 UTUC 2027; 400M raise Sep'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":84.2,"netCashLocal":727.8,"cashPS":8.6437,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.57,"bear":10.11,"base":15.27,"bull":22.56,"psychedelic_bull":28.87},"weightedTP":16.07,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.utuc","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.hcc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.fgfr3","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.fgfr1_3"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":79},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":49},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":47},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":26},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":24},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":18},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.utuc","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":57},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":52},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.utuc","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.achondroplasia","purity":78},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":54},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":52},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":39},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gi.hcc","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.utuc","purity":2}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":264,"totalTAM":16.56722,"totalWTD":4.55595838},"catalysts":[{"date":"Feb 27 2026","dateSort":"2026-02-27","asset":"tyra300","indication":"tyra300_nmibc","title":"REPORTED: ASCO GU 2026 -- TYRA-300 (dabogratinib) SURF302 NMIBC poster (TPS886) + ctDNA monitoring metastatic UC (Abstract 809) -- design + early biomarker updates","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TYRA/tyra-biosciences-announces-poster-presentations-at-the-2026-asco-4fq1hpinjf6r.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"SURF302 Ph2 design + ctDNA monitoring poster presented at ASCO GU 2026 Feb 27. Trial-in-progress milestones, not topline data.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":12.6809809,"successTP":17.425105,"baseTP":16.0724576,"swingPct":25,"successMove":7,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"Sept 9 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-09","asset":"tyra300","indication":"tyra300_nmibc","title":"REPORTED: SURF302 IR NMIBC initial Ph2 HIT (9 Sep 2026) -- 60 mg QD: 3-mo CR 57% (8/14), best-overall CR 64% (9/14), ORR 79% (11/14); single-marker-lesion 100% ORR (8/8) / 75% BOR CR (6/8); no Gr3+ related AEs, no hyperphosphataemia/nail/ocular tox; 60 mg QD selected, FDA engagement on registrational adjuvant Ph3 design","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TYRA/tyra-biosciences-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-bw36uu58ziqi.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.9089659,"successTP":17.7062009,"baseTP":16.0724576,"swingPct":36,"successMove":10,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":23},{"date":"End of Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"tyra300","indication":"tyra300_ach","title":"TYRA-300 BEACH301 pediatric achondroplasia safety sentinel (dose levels 1-5, ~25 children; 6-mo height velocity) -- slipped from Q4 2026 to end-Q1 2027 per Q2 PR","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":68,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1863127/000119312526332752/tyra-ex99_1.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.8923598,"successTP":19.060168,"baseTP":16.0724576,"swingPct":45,"successMove":19,"failMove":-26,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"tyra200","indication":"tyra200_cca","title":"TYRA-200 SURF201 cholangiocarcinoma Ph1 PoC initial data","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://tyra.bio/pipeline/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":15.6287061,"successTP":16.967116,"baseTP":16.0724576,"swingPct":6,"successMove":4,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":22,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"tyra300","indication":"tyra300_utuc","title":"TYRA-300 SURF303 LG-UTUC Ph2 initial readout","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TYRA/tyra-biosciences-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-bw36uu58ziqi.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":15.8572262,"successTP":16.3752288,"baseTP":16.0724576,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":16.09},"readouts":[{"a":"tyra300","ind":"tyra300_nmibc","ds":"2026-02-27","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","endpoint":"cr_rate_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":61.3693584,"lo":11.7795449,"hi":99.6355258,"pBeatBest":0.142,"bestDrug":"TAR-200 (gemcitabine RS)","bestValue":82.4},{"a":"tyra300","ind":"tyra300_nmibc","ds":"2026-09-09","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","endpoint":"cr_rate_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":63.7129668,"lo":21.0067075,"hi":99.7879924,"pBeatBest":0.15745,"bestDrug":"TAR-200 (gemcitabine RS)","bestValue":82.4}]},"UCB":{"name":"UCB SA","subtitle":"Bimzelx E1.53B H1'26 (+91%), peak guide >=E7B; FY26 revenue guide +low-to-mid-teens % CER (~E8.75B); Neurona (rezanecel) + Candid (cizutamig) closed Jun 2026","currency":"EUR","country":"BE","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":191,"netCashLocal":-2822,"cashPS":-14.7749,"tps":{"mega_bear":125.79,"bear":180.22,"base":237.86,"bull":275.14,"psychedelic_bull":340.81},"weightedTP":238.08,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns","cns.epilepsy","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il17a_f","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.ion_channel.nav_blocker","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_sclerostin","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_tnf","small_molecule.ion_channel.sv2a_modulator","small_molecule.ion_channel.gaba_a_modulator","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cd40l","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.interneuron","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","biologic.antibody.bispecific.bcma_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":42},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":36},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":27},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":25},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":23},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":21},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":13},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":13},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":12},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":12},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":50},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":43},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":31},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":30},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":25},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":25},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":21},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":15},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":14},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":8},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":44},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":40},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":36},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":33},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":26},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":17},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.psoriatic_arthritis","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.ankylosing_spondylitis","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":9},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":4},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":18,"totalTAM":148.29,"totalWTD":125.37488},"catalysts":[{"date":"2026-03-11","dateSort":"2026-03-11","asset":"commercial","indication":"bimzelx_psa","title":"REPORTED 2026-03-11: BE BOLD head-to-head Ph4 readout HIT -- BIMZELX superior to SKYRIZI on ACR50 Wk16 (49.1% vs 38.4%); Wk4 ACR50 19.9% vs 7.2%; PASI100 53.4% vs 46.6%; no new safety signals. Detailed Wk16 at EULAR Jun 2026. First biologic to beat an IL-23 in PsA","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":92,"fail_apr":95,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.ucb.com/newsroom/press-releases/article/strong-execution-fueling-sustained-company-growth","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"BE BOLD PsA head-to-head study reads out H1 2026","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"BIMZELX demonstrated superior head-to-head efficacy vs Skyrizi in psoriatic arthritis with 49.1% vs 38.4% achieving ACR50 at Week 16 in BE-BOLD study.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":238.07724,"successTP":238.07724,"baseTP":238.07724,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Sep 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-01","asset":"staccato_alprazolam","indication":"epilepsy_new","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-09 (VOID -- no such programme): this catalyst described a \"donzakimig epilepsy Phase 2/3\". Donzakimig (UCB1381) is an Fc-free multispecific IL-13 / IL-22 antibody developed in ATOPIC DERMATITIS, where the Ph2a proof-of-concept met its primary endpoint and UCB has since said priority goes to other opportunities including galvokimig. There is no donzakimig epilepsy trial. The asset row this catalyst hangs off is really UCB’s next-generation epilepsy pipeline, whose live registrational event is STACCATO alprazolam. No assumption change made on this catalyst","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"failTP":237.810592,"successTP":238.236891,"baseTP":238.07724,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-01","asset":"dapirolizumab","indication":"sle","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-30 (VOID -- duplicate): generic 'Dapirolizumab SLE Phase 3 readout'. The first pivotal (PHOENYCS GO) already read out positive and was published in The Lancet Jun 1 2026; the remaining pivotal PHOENYCS FLY is tracked on its own catalyst below. No assumption change from this catalyst","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":75,"_note":"2026-09-30 freshness: capital structure refreshed from UCB HY 2026 report (Jun 30 2026) -- cash 766M EUR (was 1000), debt 3588M EUR entered (borrowings 1946 non-current + 217 current incl. USD 1.5B Candid acquisition term loan, bonds 1425; net financial debt 2821M EUR, was absent), sharesOut 191M (H1 non-diluted weighted average; was 200). Dapirolizumab sle pos/apr monotonicity repaired: mega_bear 40/55 -> 20/30 (= bear), psychedelic_bull 40/55 -> 60/75 (= bull); bear/base/bull unchanged.","_outcome":"completed","failTP":236.504636,"successTP":239.258312,"baseTP":238.07724,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"staccato_alprazolam","indication":"epilepsy_new","title":"STACCATO alprazolam Phase 3 headline results (study EP0162: double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled outpatient trial in patients >=18 with stereotypical prolonged seizures). SLIPPED (date rolled from 2026-09-01): event-driven design; UCB HY 2026 report (Jul 30 2026) guides first topline results between Q4 2026 and H1 2027 -- could slip into 2027. No assumption change","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.ucb.com/newsroom/press-releases/article/strong-execution-fueling-sustained-company-growth","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"STACCATO headline results expected in 2026 per UCB guidance","failTP":237.792677,"successTP":238.482602,"baseTP":238.07724,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-05-01","asset":"dapirolizumab","indication":"sle","title":"PHOENYCS FLY dapirolizumab Phase 3 SLE readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/biogen-seeks-to-stand-out-in-lupus-with-new-anti-cd40l-data","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Second Phase 3 trial with primary completion May 2028, outside 180-day window","failTP":236.637265,"successTP":240.480109,"baseTP":238.07724,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":3476,"lenses":{"comparable":204.73,"eeRel":1.0305,"peRel":1.1214},"readouts":[{"a":"staccato_alprazolam","ind":"epilepsy_new","ds":"2026-09-01","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":15.9988809,"lo":-3.54212018,"hi":40.9178526,"pBeatBest":0.09525,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33},{"a":"dapirolizumab","ind":"sle","ds":"2026-10-01","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":4.34343241,"lo":-15,"hi":43.8019896,"pBeatBest":0.02335,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"staccato_alprazolam","ind":"epilepsy_new","ds":"2026-12-31","area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","endpoint":"seizure_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":8.24352932,"lo":-3.66508524,"hi":36.8147455,"pBeatBest":0.0507,"bestDrug":"azetukalner (XEN1101) 25mg","bestValue":33},{"a":"dapirolizumab","ind":"sle","ds":"2028-05-01","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":4.40246723,"lo":-15,"hi":44.557299,"pBeatBest":0.02515,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"URGN":{"name":"UroGen Pharma Ltd.","subtitle":"US specialty intracavitary urothelial oncology | Q2'26 rev $72.5M: Zusduri $50.4M (+73% q/q), Jelmyto $22.0M (FY26 guide $97-101M); UGN-103 US filing Q3'26","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":50.38,"netCashLocal":-81.5,"cashPS":-1.6177,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.85,"bear":16.13,"base":26.7,"bull":39,"psychedelic_bull":51.99},"weightedTP":28.56,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.utuc"],"modalities":["small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo.mitomycin_intravesical","small_molecule","small_molecule.cytotoxic_chemo","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_ctla4","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":96},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.utuc","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.utuc","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.utuc","purity":18}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":58,"totalTAM":13.51249,"totalWTD":8.55949456},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"ugn_103","indication":"ugn103_lg_ir_nmibc","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-17: UGN-103 NDA SUBMITTED to FDA for recurrent LG-IR NMIBC (single-arm Ph3 UTOPIA, 77.8% 3-mo CR; FDA-agreed plan) -- potential approval 2027","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/17/3346054/0/en/urogen-submits-nda-for-ugn-103-an-investigational-treatment-of-recurrent-lg-ir-nmibc.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":26.800586,"successTP":32.1729358,"baseTP":28.5613666,"swingPct":10,"successMove":7,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"ugn_301","indication":"ugn301_hg_nmibc","title":"UGN-301 Phase 1 follow-up + Phase 2 enrollment start (anti-CTLA-4 mono + UGN-201/gem combos)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":65,"_source":"URGN pipeline / SUO 2024-2025 data","_confidence":"medium","failTP":28.1246219,"successTP":29.1945792,"baseTP":28.5613666,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":17,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ugn_104","indication":"ugn104_lg_utuc","title":"UGN-104 Phase 3 fully enrolled by EOY 2026","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"URGN pipeline page","_confidence":"high","failTP":28.381755,"successTP":29.0683447,"baseTP":28.5613666,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zusduri","indication":"zusduri_lg_ir_nmibc","title":"Zusduri FY26 ramp with permanent J-code (Q1 $29M -> Q2 $50.4M, +73% q/q; no FY26 company guidance yet)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"UroGen Q2 2026 PR 2026-08-05","_confidence":"high","failTP":24.3858159,"successTP":32.3745588,"baseTP":28.5613666,"swingPct":8,"successMove":4,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"ugn_103","indication":"ugn103_lg_ir_nmibc","title":"UGN-103 PDUFA decision (~10mo after H2'26 NDA)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":78,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"URGN guidance + standard PDUFA timeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":24.7369598,"successTP":30.8887346,"baseTP":28.5613666,"swingPct":11,"successMove":4,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":77,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":109.8,"lenses":{"comparable":22.34},"readouts":[{"a":"ugn_301","ind":"ugn301_hg_nmibc","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","endpoint":"cr_rate_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":57.2957698,"lo":4.80756431,"hi":100,"pBeatBest":0.1463,"bestDrug":"TAR-200 (gemcitabine RS)","bestValue":82.4}]},"US_WORLDMEDS":{"name":"US WorldMeds, LLC","subtitle":"Kentucky-based private specialty pharma; PIVOTED to oncology cell therapy via Adaptimmune acq Aug 4 2025 ($55M + up to $30M milestones)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":true,"sharesOut":1,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.sarcoma.sts","oncology","oncology.sarcoma","oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.tcr_t_mage_a4","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.tcr_t_ny_eso_1","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.tcr_t_mage_a4_next_gen"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":88},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":23},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":12}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":71},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma.sts","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.sarcoma","purity":29}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":12,"rarePurityWtd":29,"optionality":205,"totalTAM":36.012,"totalWTD":11.819366},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":40,"readouts":[{"a":"uza_cel","ind":"uzacel_solid","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.1l_io","endpoint":"mpfs_months","unit":"mo","src":"class","med":7.64703776,"lo":2.5089638,"hi":13.0668986,"pBeatBest":0.1847,"bestDrug":"pembrolizumab mono","bestValue":10.3}]},"UTHR":{"name":"United Therapeutics Corporation","subtitle":"PAH leader: Tyvaso franchise ($1.88B; PAH+PH-ILD+IPF Ph3 POSITIVE 2026) + Remodulin + Orenitram + Unituxin neuroblastoma; Ralinepag PAH Ph3 POSITIVE Mar 2026; UKidney xenotransplant Ph1","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":46,"netCashLocal":3803.4,"cashPS":82.6826,"tps":{"mega_bear":326.79,"bear":416.8,"base":627.47,"bull":943.19,"psychedelic_bull":1489.94},"weightedTP":651,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","respiratory","respiratory.fibrotic","respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine","nephrology.transplant.xeno_kidney","nephrology","nephrology.transplant"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.prostacyclin_analog","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_gd2","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","small_molecule.enzyme.pde5_cgmp","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.gpcr.prostacyclin_receptor_agonist","cell_gene_therapy.xenotransplant.gene_edited.porcine_kidney","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.xenotransplant","cell_gene_therapy.xenotransplant.gene_edited"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":119},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":63},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":34},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":25},{"area":"nephrology.transplant.xeno_kidney","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":15},{"area":"nephrology.transplant","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":136},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":72},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":39},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":25},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":8},{"area":"nephrology.transplant.xeno_kidney","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.transplant","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","purity":122},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary","purity":80},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","purity":38},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ipf","purity":26},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.transplant.xeno_kidney","purity":4},{"area":"respiratory.fibrotic.ppf","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.transplant","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":64,"rarePurityWtd":73,"optionality":15,"totalTAM":60.1351,"totalWTD":52.492543},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 5 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"tyvaso","indication":"ipf","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-05: Tyvaso (nebulized treprostinil) IPF sNDA SUBMITTED to FDA on TETON-1 + TETON-2 (both positive); potential approval 2027. Filing risk retired, approval risk remains.","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_source":"UTHR Q2 2026 results / 8-K, 2026-08-05","_confidence":"high","failTP":651.001815,"successTP":651.001815,"baseTP":651.001815,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":99,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 24 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-24","asset":"ralinepag","indication":"pah","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-24: Ralinepag NDA SUBMITTED (Jun 2026) and ACCEPTED by FDA; filing risk retired, approval risk remains (pos/apr already at filed-level)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.unither.com/press-releases/2026/08-24-2026-120021913","_confidence":"high","failTP":536.719838,"successTP":599.561722,"baseTP":651.001815,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-2,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":99,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Ongoing","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ukidney","indication":"esrd","title":"UKidney EXPAND Ph1 enrollment progress (xenotransplant; long-tail to 2030+ launch)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://pipeline.unither.com/","_confidence":"low","failTP":641.946967,"successTP":647.11453,"baseTP":651.001815,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":14,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Late Apr 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"tyvaso","indication":"ipf","title":"Tyvaso (nebulized) IPF sNDA PDUFA -- FDA accepted Sep 2 2026; review completion expected late April 2027","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/UTHR/united-therapeutics-corporation-announces-fda-acceptance-of-um5qkjumzqke.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":651.001815,"successTP":651.001815,"baseTP":651.001815,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":99,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Jun 24 2027 (PDUFA)","dateSort":"2027-06-24","asset":"ralinepag","indication":"pah","title":"Ralinepag PAH NDA PDUFA (first once-daily oral prostacyclin-pathway agent if approved)","type":"pdufa","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.unither.com/press-releases/2026/08-24-2026-120021913","_confidence":"high","failTP":536.719838,"successTP":599.561722,"baseTP":651.001815,"swingPct":10,"successMove":-8,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":99,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":3159,"sanity":{"flags":["share","oversub"],"maxShare":{"pct":68,"ceilPct":65,"position":"commercial_incumbent","asset":"tyvaso","ind":"ph_ild","area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","somB":1.5,"tamB":2.2},"oversub":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.ph_ild","ratioPct":137},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.cardiopulmonary.pah","ratioPct":120}]},"lenses":{"comparable":1010,"eeRel":1.9612,"peRel":3.676}},"VCEL":{"name":"Vericel Corporation","subtitle":"Profitable specialty commercial | Q2 2026 revenue $77.5M (+22%), MACI $65.5M (+23%); FY26 guidance RAISED to $330-340M (MACI $284-290M) | $227M cash, no debt; first $200M buyback | UK MHRA MAA filed","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":49,"netCashLocal":227,"cashPS":4.6327,"tps":{"mega_bear":19.63,"bear":32.64,"base":45.65,"bull":78.1,"psychedelic_bull":131.98},"weightedTP":52.56,"meta":{"areas":["musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.cartilage_repair","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","dermatology.aesthetics.skincare","dermatology","dermatology.aesthetics"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.matrix_chondrocyte","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.autologous.epidermal"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.skincare","purity":185},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":92},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.cartilage_repair","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":8}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics.skincare","purity":185},{"area":"dermatology.aesthetics","purity":92},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.cartilage_repair","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":8}],"focusSOM":[],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":2.4012,"totalWTD":2.4012},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-15","asset":"maci","indication":"maci_knee","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-30: Q2 2026 revenue $77.5M (+22%), MACI $65.5M (+23%), burn care $12.0M (+22%), adj EBITDA $14.9M (19% margin); FY26 guidance RAISED to $330-340M; first $200M share repurchase authorised","type":"other","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"VCEL IR","_confidence":"high","failTP":52.5561224,"successTP":52.5561224,"baseTP":52.5561224,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-02-24","asset":"maci","indication":"maci_knee","title":"Vericel FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance; MACI Arthro trajectory, UK MHRA decision path, FDA ankle-cartilage expansion","type":"other","fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"failTP":52.5561224,"successTP":52.5561224,"baseTP":52.5561224,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":277,"lenses":{"comparable":60.93,"eeRel":0.3991,"peRel":0.8095}},"VCYT":{"name":"Veracyte","subtitle":"Molecular diagnostics: Decipher prostate (Q2'26 $91.9M +20%); Afirma thyroid ($51.2M +18%); Prosigna LDT + TrueMRD launched H1'26; acq Convergent (UroAmp) Sep'26; cash ~$335M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"commercial_biotech","private":false,"sharesOut":79.79,"netCashLocal":335.2,"cashPS":4.201,"tps":{"mega_bear":23.3,"bear":31.67,"base":42.59,"bull":51.17,"psychedelic_bull":61.66},"weightedTP":42.1,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","oncology.endocrine","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","oncology.genitourinary.urothelial"],"modalities":["_diversified.diagnostics.genomic_classifier","_diversified","_diversified.diagnostics","_diversified.diagnostics.urine_tumor_dna"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":74},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":58},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":52},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":16}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":50},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":20}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":75},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.endocrine.thyroid_cancer","purity":51},{"area":"oncology.endocrine","purity":25},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial.nmibc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.urothelial","purity":7}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":19,"totalTAM":7.4961,"totalWTD":6.29834062},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 8, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-08","asset":"decipher","indication":"decipher_prostate","title":"REPORTED: Prosigna LDT LAUNCHED in the US (ER+/HER2- breast cancer 10-yr recurrence risk + chemo benefit) following the OPTIMA readout at ASCO 2026 -- confirmed in Q2'26 results Jul 30 2026; not yet in FY26 guidance","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/30/3336432/0/en/veracyte-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Veracyte announced U.S. commercial launch of Prosigna breast cancer recurrence test effective June 8, 2026, moving the catalyst from H2 2026 prospective to realized launch.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":36.472076,"successTP":47.4889149,"baseTP":42.096466,"swingPct":22,"successMove":11,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":57},{"date":"Jul 30, 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"decipher","indication":"decipher_prostate","title":"REPORTED (EARLY): TrueMRD LAUNCHED H1 2026 for recurrence monitoring in muscle-invasive bladder cancer post-cystectomy -- Medicare reimbursement secured; first commercial MRD-platform product; not yet in FY26 guidance","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/30/3336432/0/en/veracyte-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":36.472076,"successTP":47.4889149,"baseTP":42.096466,"swingPct":22,"successMove":11,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":57},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"decipher","indication":"decipher_prostate","title":"First Prosigna LDT + TrueMRD revenue contribution (both excluded from FY26 guidance) / FY2027 guidance","type":"other","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.4626948,"successTP":15.121328,"baseTP":42.096466,"swingPct":3,"successMove":-32,"failMove":-35,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":-32,"daysOut":null,"materiality":34},{"date":"Late 2028","dateSort":"2028-12-15","asset":"uroamp","indication":"uroamp_nmibc","title":"UroAmp commercial launch (NMIBC post-BCG response monitoring), subject to reimbursement; up to $30M Convergent milestones tied to reimbursement","type":"launch","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/14/3361535/0/en/veracyte-acquires-convergent-genomics-expanding-its-urology-diagnostics-portfolio-with-a-urinary-tumor-dna-testing-platform.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":40.2274903,"successTP":40.8580724,"baseTP":42.096466,"swingPct":1,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3}],"salesM2025":495,"sanity":{"flags":["share"],"maxShare":{"pct":50,"ceilPct":50,"position":"unpositioned","asset":"decipher","ind":"decipher_prostate","area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.localized","somB":0.6,"tamB":1.2}},"lenses":{"comparable":41,"eeRel":0.5243,"peRel":0.7204}},"VERA":{"name":"Vera Therapeutics","subtitle":"Atacicept (BAFF+APRIL TACI-Fc) -- TRUTAKNA FDA AA in IgAN Jul 7 2026; ORIGIN 3 2-yr eGFR HIT Sep 15 2026 (sBLA Q4) · launch >350 start forms · PIONEER Ph2 basket · $499M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":71.73,"netCashLocal":499.2,"cashPS":6.9594,"tps":{"mega_bear":7.57,"bear":15.72,"base":25.79,"bull":36.45,"psychedelic_bull":51.31},"weightedTP":27.31,"meta":{"areas":["nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","nephrology.glomerular.pmn","nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","infectious_disease.viral.bkv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.taci_fc","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_viral","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":99},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":81},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":56},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":33},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":28},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.bkv","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":142},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":100},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":24},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":21},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":12},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.bkv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":170},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":100},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.lupus_nephritis","purity":17},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":9},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.fsgs","purity":5},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.bkv","purity":0},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":97,"totalTAM":16.8343,"totalWTD":8.539304},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 15 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-15","asset":"atacicept","indication":"atacicept_igan","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-15: ORIGIN 3 final efficacy analysis HIT (n=428) -- eGFR slope -0.6 vs -5.6 mL/min/1.73m2/yr through wk104 (p<0.0001); wk52 eGFR change -0.1 vs -5.7; kidney progression events 11 vs 38 (HR 0.24, -76%); dialysis/transplant/death 0 vs 8 -> igan pos/apr to success 92/97. sBLA full-approval conversion Q4 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://ir.veratx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-therapeutics-announces-alignment-us-fda-earlier-origin/","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.6877158,"successTP":32.1574055,"baseTP":27.3090651,"swingPct":79,"successMove":18,"failMove":-61,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":12,"daysOut":null,"materiality":66},{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"atacicept","indication":"atacicept_pmn","title":"PIONEER Ph2 basket initial readouts (anti-PLA2R pMN + anti-nephrin FSGS/MCD podocytopathies + expanded IgAN cohorts + IgA vasculitis nephritis)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/07/3289884/0/en/vera-therapeutics-provides-business-update-and-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results.html","_confidence":"high","_note":"status unconfirmed as of 2026-07-06; date rolled. PIONEER basket ongoing per Q1 2026 update; no initial readout published as of 2026-07-06 (company focus on Jul 7 2026 IgAN PDUFA). Rolled ~1 quarter to Q3 2026.","failTP":26.4530042,"successTP":27.6792685,"baseTP":27.3090651,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"atacicept","indication":"atacicept_igan","title":"U.S. commercial launch in IgAN (>350 patient start forms in first 10 weeks per Sep 15 2026 PR; first sales reporting Q3/Q4 2026)","type":"launch","binary":false,"fail_pos":65,"fail_apr":85,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/07/3289884/0/en/vera-therapeutics-provides-business-update-and-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":16.4326153,"successTP":32.1574055,"baseTP":27.3090651,"swingPct":49,"successMove":15,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":89,"expectedReturn":10,"daysOut":null,"materiality":56},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"atacicept","indication":"atacicept_igan","title":"Atacicept sBLA submission for full-approval conversion Q4 2026 (ORIGIN 3 final efficacy analysis positive Sep 15 2026; decision possible 2027)","type":"regulatory","binary":false,"fail_pos":88,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://ir.veratx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-therapeutics-announces-alignment-us-fda-earlier-origin/","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.2545692,"successTP":32.1574055,"baseTP":27.3090651,"swingPct":22,"successMove":9,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":89,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33},{"date":"2027 (est)","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"atacicept","indication":"atacicept_igan","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-07: Atacicept FDA Accelerated Approval in IgAN GRANTED (TRUTAKNA, atacicept-vymj) -- hit; igan pos/apr at success floor 88/95. NEXT: ORIGIN 3 confirmatory Ph3 (eGFR) readout ~2027 = full-approval bridge","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/07/3323532/0/en/vera-therapeutics-receives-fda-accelerated-approval-for-trutakna-for-adult-patients-with-primary-iga-nephropathy.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":7.85516118,"successTP":32.1574055,"baseTP":27.3090651,"swingPct":89,"successMove":18,"failMove":-71,"yourPoS":97,"expectedReturn":15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":66},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"atacicept","indication":"atacicept_ln","title":"Lupus nephritis Ph3 initiation (post FDA agreement)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://www.biospace.com/vera-therapeutics-announces-phase-3-clinical-trial-for-atacicept-in-lupus-nephritis-positive-feedback-from-fda-to-initiate-phase-3-trial-of-atacicept-in-patients-with-ln","_confidence":"medium","failTP":25.9482945,"successTP":28.2338241,"baseTP":27.3090651,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":70.9},"readouts":[{"a":"atacicept","ind":"atacicept_igan","ds":"2026-09-15","area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","endpoint":"proteinuria_reduction_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":38.3666589,"lo":-0.35185229,"hi":55.0663903,"pBeatBest":0.08015,"bestDrug":"sibeprenlimab","bestValue":50.2}]},"VIR":{"name":"Vir Biotechnology","subtitle":"Post-COVID pivot: HBV/HDV (tobevibart + elebsiran ECLIPSE Ph3) + oncology TCEs (VIR-5500 PSMA prostate Astellas $1.7B deal); cash $809M + $315M Astellas Q2'26 = $1.12B to 2H'28","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":169.22,"netCashLocal":1007.8,"cashPS":5.9556,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.48,"bear":7.96,"base":12.71,"bull":20.24,"psychedelic_bull":27.84},"weightedTP":13.53,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.viral.hdv","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.viral","infectious_disease.viral.hbv","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate","oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","oncology.breast","oncology.breast.her2_pos"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.hbv_combo","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.bispecific.psma_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.her2_tce_pro_xten"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":107},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":64},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hdv","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":20},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":16}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":116},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":82},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hdv","purity":48},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":9}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hbv","purity":104},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral","purity":99},{"area":"infectious_disease.viral.hdv","purity":95},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos.2l_metastatic","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.breast.her2_pos","purity":0}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":338,"totalTAM":28.7998,"totalWTD":6.57597108},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 2026","dateSort":"2026-04-15","asset":"vir5500","indication":"vir5500_prostate","title":"RESOLVED 2026-04-15: Astellas VIR-5500 upfront payment received (deal closed Apr 15 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":88,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/astellas-and-vir-biotechnology-announce-global-strategic-collaboration-to-advance-psma-targeting-pro-xten-dual-masked-t-cell-engager-vir-5500-for-the-treatment-of-prostate-cancer-302694866.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"VIR-5500 global collaboration/licensing agreement with Astellas closed 2026-04-15 (post HSR); Vir received $335M upfront+near-term ($240M cash + $75M equity at 50% premium + $20M near-term milestone); up to $1.37B further milestones + tiered double-digit ex-US royalties.","failTP":13.4741234,"successTP":14.2231771,"baseTP":13.5311546,"swingPct":2,"successMove":2,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 5 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"tobevibart","indication":"tobe_hdv","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-05: all ECLIPSE HDV Ph3 trials FULLY ENROLLED (Q2 8-K) -- enrollment milestone, no assumption move; topline catalysts govern","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":65,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":72,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/VIR/10-q-vir-biotechnology-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-da1d29e58a1c.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.6576944,"successTP":15.5905346,"baseTP":13.5311546,"swingPct":11,"successMove":5,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tobevibart","indication":"tobe_hdv","title":"ECLIPSE 1 Ph3 HDV topline (tobevibart + elebsiran) -- guided Q4 2026; ECLIPSE 2 + 3 topline Q1 2027 (Q2 8-K Aug 5 2026; was modelled H2 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":78,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/VIR/10-q-vir-biotechnology-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-da1d29e58a1c.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":9.09701366,"successTP":16.1124636,"baseTP":13.5311546,"swingPct":52,"successMove":19,"failMove":-33,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":29}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":12.61}},"VKTX":{"name":"Viking Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Obesity + rare CNS biotech | VK2735 SC GLP-1/GIP Ph3 (VANQUISH-1 4,500pts + VANQUISH-2 ~1,100pts; topline 2027) | VK2735 oral Ph3 init Q4 2026 | VK0214 X-ALD seeking partner","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":125.69,"netCashLocal":791.05,"cashPS":6.2937,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.23,"bear":15.53,"base":30.44,"bull":55.02,"psychedelic_bull":68.38},"weightedTP":32.98,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","endocrine.adrenal.cah","endocrine","endocrine.adrenal"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_gip","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.amylin_analog","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor.thyroid_hormone_receptor","small_molecule","small_molecule.nuclear_receptor"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":198},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":99},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":199},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":99},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":187},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":93},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":13},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":7}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":134,"totalTAM":435.63,"totalWTD":186.264833},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"vk2735_sc","indication":"obesity_sc","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-22: VK2735 maintenance study POSITIVE -- 22% pbo-adj weight loss wk33 on weekly 17.5 mg (no plateau); up to 97% of loss kept on every-other-week and 90% on monthly dosing over 3 months; GI AEs ~placebo","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Viking Q2 2026 PR 2026-07-29","_confidence":"high","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viking-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-corporate-update-302838212.html","_note":"SLIPPED WITHIN THE QUARTER, not resolved. The config had placed this at 30 Aug 2026, but the company guidance has only ever been \"Q3 2026\" and was reaffirmed as such in the Q2 report on 29 Jul 2026; no data had been released as of 4 Sep 2026. Date moved to the end of the guided window rather than a mid-quarter guess. No assumption change -- fail_* and success_* were both 100/100 because this is an exploratory dose-regimen study that informs the Ph3 protocol rather than gating approval. Enrollment completed 8 Jan 2026.","failTP":23.8984574,"successTP":45.6384116,"baseTP":32.9793145,"swingPct":66,"successMove":38,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":20,"daysOut":null,"materiality":52},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"vk2735_oral","indication":"obesity_oral","title":"Oral VK2735 Ph3 initiation (first-in-class oral GLP-1/GIP for obesity)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"VKTX Q1 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":29.3855366,"successTP":39.5771727,"baseTP":32.9793145,"swingPct":9,"successMove":6,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"vk2735_sc","indication":"obesity_sc","title":"VANQUISH-1 SC Ph3 obesity topline (KEY BINARY)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"VKTX pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.1792406,"successTP":45.2322792,"baseTP":32.9793145,"swingPct":94,"successMove":37,"failMove":-57,"yourPoS":72,"expectedReturn":11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":52}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":26.47},"readouts":[{"a":"vk2735_sc","ind":"obesity_sc","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"own","med":15.2312158,"lo":2.59445906,"hi":25.7718673,"pBeatBest":0.05055,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"vk2735_sc","ind":"obesity_sc","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"own","med":12.7406585,"lo":-0.504339036,"hi":25.1186101,"pBeatBest":0.03675,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2}]},"VLA":{"name":"Valneva SE","subtitle":"VLA15/LB6V VALOR Ph3 POSITIVE Mar'26 (73-75% Lyme; Pfizer BLA/MAA 2026) | IXCHIQ chik US BLA/IND withdrawn Jan'26 (ex-US continues) | S4V2 shigella Ph2 mid'26 | IXIARO+DUKORAL travel","currency":"EUR","country":"FR","region":"EUROPE.EUR","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":174,"netCashLocal":121.5,"cashPS":0.6983,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.84,"bear":1.44,"base":3.85,"bull":6.8,"psychedelic_bull":9.45},"weightedTP":4.36,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.vaccines","infectious_disease.vaccines.chikungunya","infectious_disease.vaccines.shigella","infectious_disease.vaccines.zika","infectious_disease.vaccines.travel"],"modalities":["vaccine.protein_subunit.vlp_conjugate","vaccine","vaccine.protein_subunit"],"focus":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":106},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":77},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.shigella","purity":8},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.zika","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.chikungunya","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":138},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":57},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.chikungunya","purity":3},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.shigella","purity":2},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.zika","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.travel","purity":124},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines","purity":100},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.lyme","purity":39},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.chikungunya","purity":36},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.shigella","purity":1},{"area":"infectious_disease.vaccines.zika","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":30,"totalTAM":7.89362,"totalWTD":6.0927206},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 23 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-03-23","asset":"vla15","indication":"lyme","title":"REPORTED: VLA15/LB6V VALOR Phase 3 RESULT (Mar 23 2026) -- 73-75% Lyme efficacy (ages 5+); 2nd pre-specified analysis met statistical criteria; Pfizer filing BLA + MAA 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Pfizer/Valneva PR Mar 23 2026","_sourceUrl":"https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/valneva-reports-nine-month-2025-financial-results-and-provides-corporate-updates","_addedAt":"2026-04-15T07:35:42Z","_confidence":"high","_rationale":"VALOR Mar 23 2026: 73.2% (28d post-dose-4) and 74.8% (1d post-dose-4); 1st pre-spec analysis missed CI lower bound >20, 2nd met. Pfizer filing BLA/MAA 2026.","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Result already reflected in subtitle, asset stage and scenario narratives; title normalised to leading REPORTED: prefix on 2026-08-18 freshness pass.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":3.10225319,"successTP":5.78559441,"baseTP":4.35652517,"swingPct":62,"successMove":33,"failMove":-29,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":30,"daysOut":null,"materiality":52},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"s4v2","indication":"shig","title":"S4V2 Shigella Phase 2 data (infant + CHIM) -- guided Q3 2026 in H1 report, not reported by Oct 7 (slipped)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":70,"failTP":4.34115471,"successTP":4.36665258,"baseTP":4.35652517,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"vla15","indication":"lyme","title":"VLA15/LB6V (PF-07307405) -- EMA MAA VALIDATED Aug 14 2026; Pfizer US BLA submission still unconfirmed","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Pfizer/Valneva PR Mar 23 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.21008957,"successTP":5.95295171,"baseTP":4.35652517,"swingPct":13,"successMove":7,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":57,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10}],"salesM2025":185,"lenses":{"comparable":5.94}},"VNDA":{"name":"Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.","subtitle":"US specialty CNS: Fanapt +23% Q2'26 + HETLIOZ generic-eroded -66% + PONVORY | BYSANTI approved Feb 26, launch H2 26 | Imsidolimab GPP PDUFA Dec 12 26 | FY26 guide $240-290M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":60.45,"netCashLocal":170,"cashPS":2.8122,"tps":{"mega_bear":4.68,"bear":9.3,"base":13.55,"bull":18.96,"psychedelic_bull":25.88},"weightedTP":14.44,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","cns.sleep.circadian","cns.sleep","immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.demyelinating","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.serotonin_dopamine_atypical","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.melatonin","small_molecule.gpcr.s1p_modulator","small_molecule.gpcr.nk1","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_il36r","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":52},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":50},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":42},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":33},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":33},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":33},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":25},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":16},{"area":"cns.sleep.circadian","purity":1},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":54},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":46},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":27},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":26},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":26},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":18},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":18},{"area":"cns.sleep.circadian","purity":1},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":98},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":55},{"area":"cns.sleep.circadian","purity":41},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":21},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis.systemic","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":17},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.psoriasis","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating.multiple_sclerosis","purity":16},{"area":"immunology.demyelinating","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":6},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":6}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":9,"totalTAM":94.513,"totalWTD":86.4172},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 6 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-05-06","asset":"fanapt","indication":"fanapt_schiz","title":"REPORTED: VNDA Q1 2026 — revenue $51.7M (Fanapt +26% to $29.6M; Hetlioz declining); BYSANTI launched + NEREUS DTC launch; FY26 guide raised to $240-290M","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"VNDA Q1 2026 PR May 6 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-06 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":14.4406992,"successTP":14.4406992,"baseTP":14.4406992,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 5 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"fanapt","indication":"fanapt_schiz","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-05: VNDA Q2 2026 -- total revenue $50.5M (-4% YoY); Fanapt $36.0M (+23%); HETLIOZ -66% YoY on generic entry; NEREUS $1.0M on cautious stocking; FY26 guide MAINTAINED at $240-290M (Fanapt+BYSANTI $150-170M, Other $80-90M, NEREUS $10-30M); BYSANTI launch guided to H2 2026","type":"other","binary":false,"_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Company Q2'26 PR/8-K (2026-08-05). Guide maintained at $240-290M, so the config's $230-260M subtitle/catalyst text was stale (the Q1 catalyst already recorded the raise). HETLIOZ generic erosion of -66% YoY is materially worse than the config's prose implied -> hetlioz pen cut one notch per scenario. Fanapt +23% and the BYSANTI H2 launch offset it, so no other assumption moved.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_source":"Vanda Q2 2026 results PR 2026-08-05 (PR Newswire) + 8-K","_sourceUrl":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vanda-pharmaceuticals-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-302844175.html","failTP":14.4406992,"successTP":14.4406992,"baseTP":14.4406992,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"bysanti","indication":"bysanti_psych","title":"BYSANTI US commercial launch -- guided to H2 2026 at Q2'26 (was the Jul-Sep window); first full launch quarter is the key franchise-scale read","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"VNDA pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.4406992,"successTP":14.4406992,"baseTP":14.4406992,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Dec 12 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-12","asset":"imsidolimab","indication":"imsi_gpp","title":"Imsidolimab GPP PDUFA Dec 12 2026 (first orphan launch via Anaptys license)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"VNDA Q4'25 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.0042416,"successTP":15.1863702,"baseTP":14.4406992,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":74,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":6},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"fanapt","indication":"fanapt_schiz","title":"FY26 revenue guide $240-290M reaffirmed at Q2'26 (Fanapt+BYSANTI $150-170M / Other $80-90M / NEREUS $10-30M); HETLIOZ generic erosion is the swing factor","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"VNDA FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.4406992,"successTP":14.4406992,"baseTP":14.4406992,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":220,"lenses":{"comparable":16.77}},"VOR":{"name":"Vor Biopharma (post-RemeGen telitacicept reverse merger)","subtitle":"Ex-CN telitacicept BLyS/APRIL TACI-Fc: global Ph3 UPSTREAM MG enrolled (topline 1H'27) + UPSTREAM SjD + oMG 1H'27; CN approved in 5 indications; no global SLE/RA trial; cash $466M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":54.19,"netCashLocal":466.1,"cashPS":8.6012,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.06,"bear":9.69,"base":19.81,"bull":37.21,"psychedelic_bull":59.11},"weightedTP":20.91,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens"],"modalities":["biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.taci_fc","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":115},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":45},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":30},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":12}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":58},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":54},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":54},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":44},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":29},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":27}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":95},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":89},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sjogrens","purity":83},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":7},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":6},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":3}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":575,"totalTAM":54.393,"totalWTD":8.057121},"catalysts":[{"date":"Mar 30 2026","dateSort":"2026-03-30","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_sjd","title":"REPORTED 2026-03-30: first patient dosed in UPSTREAM SjD, a global randomised double-blind placebo-controlled registrational Ph3 of SC telitacicept in ~250 adults with active primary Sjogren's disease -- first and only dual BAFF/APRIL inhibitor in a disease with no approved therapy","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://ir.vorbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vor-bio-doses-first-patient-global-phase-3-upstream-sjd","failTP":13.9646252,"successTP":18.2972999,"baseTP":20.9143453,"swingPct":6,"successMove":-4,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"Jun 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-08","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_sle","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-08 (HIT): NMPA approved telitacicept in Sjogren's disease and granted CONDITIONAL approval in IgA nephropathy -- 4th and 5th China indications, first BAFF/APRIL therapy approved in IgAN; Ph3 TELIGAN interim later published in NEJM. China revenue accrues to RemeGen, not Vor","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/11/3342846/0/en/vor-bio-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-corporate-update.html","failTP":12.6063813,"successTP":16.8010964,"baseTP":20.9143453,"swingPct":20,"successMove":-20,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-33,"daysOut":null,"materiality":31},{"date":"Sep 8 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-08","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_gmg","title":"REPORTED 2026-09-08: UPSTREAM MG global Ph3 ENROLMENT COMPLETE (topline 1H 2027) and Vor expands the global franchise into OCULAR myasthenia gravis -- UPSTREAM oMG registrational Ph3, first patient guided 1H 2027","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357492/0/en/vor-completes-enrollment-of-global-phase-3-upstream-mg-trial-and-expands-telitacicept-global-franchise-into-ocular-myasthenia-gravis.html","failTP":20.3619137,"successTP":20.8028534,"baseTP":20.9143453,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"1H 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-31","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_gmg","title":"UPSTREAM oMG (ocular myasthenia gravis) global registrational Ph3 -- first patient dosed, guided 1H 2027","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"Vor PR 2026-09-08","failTP":20.3619137,"successTP":20.8028534,"baseTP":20.9143453,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"1H 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_gmg","title":"Telitacicept global Ph3 UPSTREAM MG topline (gMG) -- ENROLMENT COMPLETE Sep 8 2026; company guides preliminary 24-week primary-outcome results in 1H 2027. The lead global readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/VOR/vor-bio-enters-into-exclusive-global-license-agreement-with-reme-gen-8my3b8msk1ha.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":20.4317229,"successTP":21.5144186,"baseTP":20.9143453,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_gmg","title":"UPSTREAM-SjD global Phase 3 Sjogren's disease readout -- one of the two enrolling global studies the company names (with UPSTREAM MG); Sjogren's is NOT modelled as an indication in this config","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","_source":"Vor Bio Q2 2026 corporate update (2026-08-11)","failTP":20.3619137,"successTP":20.8028534,"baseTP":20.9143453,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"Q2 2028","dateSort":"2028-06-30","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_gmg","title":"Telitacicept BLA submission (gMG, post-Ph3 hit)","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":20.3619137,"successTP":20.8028534,"baseTP":20.9143453,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":36,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2028","dateSort":"2028-09-30","asset":"telitacicept","indication":"teli_sjd","title":"UPSTREAM SjD global Ph3 primary Sjogren's disease topline (estimated; company has not guided a date)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":20,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_confidence":"low","_source":"Timing inferred from Mar 30 2026 first-patient dosing; NOT company-guided","failTP":14.243585,"successTP":30.0383234,"baseTP":20.9143453,"swingPct":76,"successMove":44,"failMove":-32,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":29.92,"peRel":217.55},"readouts":[{"a":"telitacicept","ind":"teli_sle","ds":"2026-06-08","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":3.80040436,"lo":-15,"hi":42.9770846,"pBeatBest":0.0213,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5},{"a":"telitacicept","ind":"teli_gmg","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.08108876,"lo":-0.704267836,"hi":2.87875222,"pBeatBest":0.0576,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59},{"a":"telitacicept","ind":"teli_gmg","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.08108876,"lo":-0.704267836,"hi":2.87875222,"pBeatBest":0.0576,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59}]},"VRDN":{"name":"Viridian Therapeutics","subtitle":"Lumvoa (veligrotug-vvze) FDA APPROVED + launched late Jun 2026 (TED, broad active+chronic label) -- first VRDN commercial product, Tepezza competitor; elegrobart SC BLA planned Q1'27; cash $982M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":125.3,"netCashLocal":731.5,"cashPS":5.838,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.71,"bear":13.8,"base":23.5,"bull":32.27,"psychedelic_bull":43.79},"weightedTP":24.8,"meta":{"areas":["ophthalmology.orbit.ted","ophthalmology","ophthalmology.orbit"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.fragment.fcrn_fc","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fragment"],"focus":[{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":100}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":100}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit.ted","purity":200},{"area":"ophthalmology.orbit","purity":100}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":100,"rarePurityWtd":100,"optionality":11,"totalTAM":19.8,"totalWTD":17.89425},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 30, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"veli","indication":"ted_iv","title":"REPORTED: Veligrotug PDUFA: APPROVED Jun 25 2026 -- Lumvoa (veligrotug-vvze) FDA-approved for TED (broad label, active + chronic); first VRDN commercial launch initiated","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_outcome":"success","_resolvedDate":"2026-06-25","_source":"FDA","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.viridiantherapeutics.com/news/news-details/2026/Viridian-Therapeutics-Announces-U-S--FDA-Approval-and-Launch-of-Lumvoa-veligrotug-vvze-for-the-Treatment-of-Thyroid-Eye-Disease/default.aspx","failTP":11.1518721,"successTP":28.7358789,"baseTP":24.7990795,"swingPct":71,"successMove":16,"failMove":-55,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":16,"daysOut":null,"materiality":58},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"ele","indication":"ted_sc","title":"VRDN-008 Phase 1 healthy volunteer data -- rolled from Sep 30; company guides 2H 2026 (Q2 8-K Aug 6 2026), not yet reported","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":85,"_source":"auto","_sourceUrl":"https://investors.viridiantherapeutics.com/news/news-details/2026/Viridian-Therapeutics-Prepares-for-Transformational-2026/default.aspx","_addedAt":"2026-04-14T07:58:57Z","_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"VRDN-008 healthy volunteer data expected H2 2026","failTP":20.4795324,"successTP":26.5310495,"baseTP":24.7990795,"swingPct":17,"successMove":5,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"ele","indication":"ted_sc","title":"Elegrobart (SC) BLA submission to FDA -- company guides Q1 2027","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"high","_source":"https://investors.viridiantherapeutics.com/news/news-details/2026/Viridian-Therapeutics-Highlights-Recent-Business-Progress-and-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx","failTP":17.8268035,"successTP":20.5297294,"baseTP":24.7990795,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-3,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":81,"expectedReturn":-4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":21.12}},"VRTX":{"name":"Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated","subtitle":"CF franchise (Trikafta+Alyftrek) $11.2B + Casgevy + Journavx | Kidney (povetacicept IgAN Ph3 POS) | T1D islets | Crinetics CLOSED Sep1'26: PALSONIFY acromegaly + atumelnant Ph3 CAH/Cushing's","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":254,"netCashLocal":-1734.4,"cashPS":-6.8283,"tps":{"mega_bear":141.2,"bear":241.37,"base":365.85,"bull":522.77,"psychedelic_bull":855.81},"weightedTP":399.67,"meta":{"areas":["respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","respiratory","respiratory.genetic","hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","hematology","hematology.hemoglobinopathy","hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","cns.pain.acute","cns","cns.pain","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular","nephrology.glomerular.pmn","nephrology.glomerular.amkd","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","nephrology.cystic.adpkd","nephrology.cystic","_established_products.vrtx_heritage","_established_products","endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","oncology.neuroendocrine.carcinoid_syndrome","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine","endocrine.adrenal.cah","endocrine.adrenal","endocrine.pituitary.cushing"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.cftr_triple_combo","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.ion_channel.cftr_triple_combo_next_gen","small_molecule.ion_channel.cftr_legacy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9.exvivo","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing","cell_gene_therapy.gene_editing.crispr_cas9","small_molecule.ion_channel.nav18_inhibitor","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.taci_fc","biologic","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion","small_molecule.ion_channel.apol1","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic.sc_islet","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.cell_therapy.allogeneic","small_molecule.pleiotropic.pc1_modulator","small_molecule.pleiotropic","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.sst2","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.gpcr.mc2r"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":71},{"area":"_established_products.vrtx_heritage","purity":42},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":35},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":20},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":10},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":10},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":10},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":10},{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":9},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":9},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.amkd","purity":7},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":5},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":5},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":4},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.carcinoid_syndrome","purity":4},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":84},{"area":"_established_products.vrtx_heritage","purity":51},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":42},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":11},{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":11},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":10},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":9},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":8},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":5},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":4},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":4},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.amkd","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":4},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":4},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.carcinoid_syndrome","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","purity":165},{"area":"respiratory.genetic","purity":82},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.scd","purity":9},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy","purity":6},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":6},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":4},{"area":"hematology.hemoglobinopathy.beta_thalassemia","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.acromegaly","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.carcinoid_syndrome","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal.cah","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.cystic.adpkd","purity":2},{"area":"_established_products.vrtx_heritage","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":2},{"area":"endocrine.adrenal","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.acute","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.pmn","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.amkd","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":1},{"area":"nephrology.cystic","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":56,"rarePurityWtd":63,"optionality":19,"totalTAM":141.213,"totalWTD":118.388534},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 6 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-06","asset":"trikafta","indication":"cf","title":"REPORTED (2026-09-01, CLOSED): Vertex COMPLETED the acquisition of Crinetics -- ~$10B all-cash ($85.00/sh, ~$8.8B net of cash acquired, no CVR); announced Jul 6 2026, CRNX holders approved Aug 28 2026, closed Sep 1 2026. Adds PALSONIFY (acromegaly, FDA'25 + EC Apr'26) and atumelnant (Ph3 CAH/Cushing's)","type":"m_and_a","binary":false,"_source":"https://crinetics.com/press-releases/vertex-to-acquire-crinetics-pharmaceuticals/","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"Acquirer-side. Cash falls ~$8.8B net + bridge debt on close (Q3'26); not yet reflected in company.cash (deal pending). Adds a 5th commercial franchise beyond CF/pain/renal.","failTP":399.670306,"successTP":399.670306,"baseTP":399.670306,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"povetacicept","indication":"igan","title":"Povetacicept PDUFA decision IgAN (accelerated approval)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":90,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":99,"_confidence":"high","_rationale":"BLA accepted Jun 1 2026 (accelerated approval pathway); PDUFA Nov 30 2026. RAINIER W36 UPCR -52.0% vs baseline / -49.8% vs placebo p<0.0001.","failTP":392.95272,"successTP":404.49115,"baseTP":399.670306,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":92,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"Early 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"inaxaplin","indication":"amkd","title":"Inaxaplin AMPLITUDE Ph2/3 interim analysis (enrollment COMPLETE Sep 2026; guided early 2027; accelerated-approval basis if positive)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":80,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"First APOL1-mediated CKD therapy; Ph2a -47.6% UPCR reduction supports.","failTP":398.1753,"successTP":400.863524,"baseTP":399.670306,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":70,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"vx880_islets","indication":"t1d","title":"T1D islet program restart + zimislecel/VX-017 timeline update -- program VOLUNTARILY PAUSED Q2'26 for manufacturing analysis; company to re-guide later in 2026; VX-017 universal-donor now the priority","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":75,"_confidence":"medium","_rationale":"Ph1/2 patients have achieved insulin independence; cure-potential.","failTP":399.392345,"successTP":400.670646,"baseTP":399.670306,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":12176,"sanity":{"flags":["share_severe","peak_prior"],"maxShare":{"pct":91,"ceilPct":65,"position":"commercial_incumbent","asset":"trikafta","ind":"cf","area":"respiratory.genetic.cystic_fibrosis","somB":15.1,"tamB":16.7}},"lenses":{"comparable":515.02,"eeRel":0.9768,"peRel":2.1154}},"VSTM":{"name":"Verastem, Inc.","subtitle":"AVMAPKI+FAKZYNJA, first approved therapy in KRAS-mut recurrent LGSOC | Q2'26 product rev $25.1M (H1 $43.7M) | $75M Oberland royalty deal | RAMP-301 topline mid-2027","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":100.1,"netCashLocal":136.4,"cashPS":1.3626,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.21,"bear":3.13,"base":6,"bull":9.53,"psychedelic_bull":13.52},"weightedTP":6.64,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.lgsoc","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.gi.pancreatic","oncology.gi","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","oncology.tissue_agnostic"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.raf_mek_fak","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.kinase.kras_g12d"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":69},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":66},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.lgsoc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":68},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":67},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":56},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":34},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":33},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":32},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.lgsoc","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":87},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.lgsoc","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":82},{"area":"oncology.gi.pancreatic","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic.kras_g12d","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.tissue_agnostic","purity":4}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":335,"totalTAM":35.8375,"totalWTD":8.2309671},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 12 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-12","asset":"avmapki_fakzynja","indication":"avmapki_lgsoc","title":"REPORTED: VSTM Q1 2026 earnings (first full commercial quarter for Avmapki+Fakzynja KRAS-mut mLGSOC); + VS-7375 TARGET-D 101 interim positive Jun'26 (mPDAC 93% CA19-9 reduction, immature radiographic)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"VSTM IR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-05-12 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":6.63893982,"successTP":6.63893982,"baseTP":6.63893982,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-06","asset":"avmapki_fakzynja","indication":"avmapki_lgsoc","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-06: Q2'26 AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA net product revenue $25.1M (H1 $43.7M) + $15.0M COPIKTRA milestone; $75M Oberland royalty financing signed ($50M closes Aug 28'26) -> pro-forma cash $201.4M into 2H'27","type":"milestone","binary":false,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001526119/000110465926092058/tm2622452d2_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"Launch is compounding (+34% QoQ) and the Oberland deal removes near-term financing risk non-dilutively. Commercial asset already at pos/apr 100 -- factual edit is salesM; the commercialRevM ladder is flagged for the user.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":6.63893982,"successTP":6.63893982,"baseTP":6.63893982,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 14 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-14","asset":"vs_7375","indication":"vs7375_pancreatic","title":"VS-7375 KRAS G12D first efficacy + updated safety across PDAC, NSCLC and CRC -- company investor event Oct 14 2026 (TARGET-D)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001526119/000110465926092058/tm2622452d2_ex99-1.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":6.04803901,"successTP":7.17379082,"baseTP":6.63893982,"swingPct":12,"successMove":6,"failMove":-6,"yourPoS":35,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"avmapki_ramp201","indication":"avmapki_pancreatic","title":"RAMP-205 pancreatic + RAMP-204 endometrial Ph2 readouts","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":85,"_source":"VSTM pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":5.81672395,"successTP":7.91824077,"baseTP":6.63893982,"swingPct":31,"successMove":19,"failMove":-12,"yourPoS":43,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":12},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"avmapki_ramp201","indication":"avmapki_lgsoc_wt","title":"RAMP-301 Ph3 confirmatory topline readout (KRAS-mut + KRAS-WT LGSOC; fully enrolled Dec 2025; OS primary endpoint mid-2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":92,"_source":"VSTM pipeline","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.38685181,"successTP":7.3836115,"baseTP":6.63893982,"swingPct":15,"successMove":11,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":6.21}},"VTRS":{"name":"Viatris Inc.","subtitle":"Spinout Mylan + Pfizer Upjohn (Nov 2020) | FY25 $14.25B (-2% cc) | Generics + Established Brands (Lipitor/Norvasc/Zoloft post-LOE) + biosim Hulio/Ogivri | China growth","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":1171,"netCashLocal":-12464.8,"cashPS":-10.6446,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.35,"bear":5.8,"base":10.9,"bull":20.23,"psychedelic_bull":34.67},"weightedTP":11.1,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cns.pain.neuropathic","cns","cns.pain","immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","immunology","immunology.hypersensitivity","_established_products.viatris_legacy","_established_products","gastro_hepatology.pancreas.epi","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.pancreas","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_us_generics_other","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_eu_generics_other","_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_janz_other","_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_china_other","_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_em_other","cardio_metabolic.ischemic.myocardial_infarction","cardio_metabolic.ischemic","immunology.autoimmune.sle","immunology.autoimmune"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.hmg_coa_reductase","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.ion_channel.ccb","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.ion_channel.cav_a2d","small_molecule.gpcr.adrenergic","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.enzyme.pde5","biological_extract.porcine.pancreatic_enzyme","biological_extract","biological_extract.porcine","small_molecule.gpcr.lama","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.p2y12_antagonist","small_molecule.gpcr.s1p1_agonist"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":72},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":36},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":7},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.viatris_legacy","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.myocardial_infarction","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.epi","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_janz_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_china_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":73},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":37},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":27},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":24},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":22},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":16},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":15},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":12},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":11},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":7},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":5},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":1},{"area":"_established_products.viatris_legacy","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.epi","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_janz_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_china_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_em_other","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.myocardial_infarction","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":0},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":60},{"area":"cns.pain.neuropathic","purity":34},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity.anaphylaxis","purity":33},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":30},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":28},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":17},{"area":"immunology.hypersensitivity","purity":17},{"area":"_established_products.viatris_legacy","purity":16},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":14},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas.epi","purity":14},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":10},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.pancreas","purity":7},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":5},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":2},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic.myocardial_infarction","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.ischemic","purity":1},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":1},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage.osteoporosis","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.bone_cartilage","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_eu_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_janz_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_china_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.vtrs_vtrs_em_other","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1,"totalTAM":1084.417,"totalWTD":1073.63356},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-30","asset":"vtrs_us_generics","indication":"vtrs_us_generics_outpatient_generic","title":"REPORTED: Contraceptive patch PDUFA (Jul 30, 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Viatris FY25 release","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"RESOLVED 2026-07-29: FDA APPROVED Gwyn Lo (norelgestromin/ethinyl estradiol transdermal system), once-weekly low-dose combined hormonal contraceptive patch, one day ahead of PDUFA. Launch expected 2H 2026. Source: Viatris newsroom 2026-07-29.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":11.0975877,"successTP":11.0975877,"baseTP":11.0975877,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-17","asset":"vtrs_us_generics","indication":"vtrs_us_generics_outpatient_generic","title":"MR-141 (phentolamine ophthalmic) PDUFA (Oct 17, 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Viatris FY25 release","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.0975877,"successTP":11.0975877,"baseTP":11.0975877,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Dec 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-27","asset":"vtrs_us_generics","indication":"vtrs_us_generics_outpatient_generic","title":"MR-107A-02 (fast-acting meloxicam) PDUFA (Dec 27, 2026)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":0,"fail_apr":0,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001792044/000179204426000037/exhibit991-2q26earningsrel.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.0975877,"successTP":11.0975877,"baseTP":11.0975877,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"cenerimod","indication":"sle","title":"Cenerimod OPUS-1/OPUS-2 SLE Ph3 readouts","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Idorsia/Viatris collab","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.9036147,"successTP":11.2801603,"baseTP":11.0975877,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"selatogrel","indication":"ami_self","title":"Selatogrel SOS-AMI Ph3 readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":90,"_source":"Idorsia/Viatris collab","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.0068283,"successTP":11.1732865,"baseTP":11.0975877,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":13008,"lenses":{"comparable":29.26,"eeRel":1.9167},"readouts":[{"a":"cenerimod","ind":"sle","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":5.12577863,"lo":-15,"hi":45.1442776,"pBeatBest":0.0265,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"WOCKPHARMA":{"name":"Wockhardt","subtitle":"India antibiotic specialist: Zaynich (zidebactam/cefepime) CDSCO cUTI May'26 + FDA NDA accepted Sep'25 Fast Track/Priority Review (potential 2026 US); Nafithromycin May'25; MCap INR 329B","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":161.6,"netCashLocal":5000,"cashPS":30.9406,"tps":{"mega_bear":503.78,"bear":715.36,"base":952.27,"bull":1341.33,"psychedelic_bull":1720.73},"weightedTP":964.58,"meta":{"areas":["infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","infectious_disease","infectious_disease.bacterial","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products"],"modalities":["small_molecule.antibacterial.cephalosporin_enhancer","small_molecule","small_molecule.antibacterial","small_molecule.antibacterial.ketolide","_diversified.mixed.legacy_branded_biosimilars","_diversified","_diversified.mixed"],"focus":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":192},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":8},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":194},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":6},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":3}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":151},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial.hospital_mdr","purity":49},{"area":"infectious_disease.bacterial","purity":24}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":1,"totalTAM":78.296,"totalWTD":77.593208},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"zaynich","indication":"zaynich_sepsis","title":"Zaynich FDA approval decision (NDA accepted Sep'25 Fast Track/Priority Review; potential 2026 US launch)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":32,"fail_apr":45,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.business-standard.com/markets/news/wockhardt-hits-all-time-high-on-cdsco-approval-for-antibiotic-zaynich-126052900781_1.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":764.201664,"successTP":1105.32214,"baseTP":964.577563,"swingPct":36,"successMove":15,"failMove":-21,"yourPoS":78,"expectedReturn":7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21}],"salesM2025":400,"lenses":{"comparable":770.53,"eeRel":0.2575,"peRel":0.1641}},"WVE":{"name":"Wave Life Sciences","subtitle":"ADAR RNA editing (AIMer): WVE-006 AATD Ph1b/2a +70% Z-AAT; FDA Oct'26 aligned on 1 registrational trial w/ 1-yr interim for AA; WVE-007 INHBE obesity; GSK siRNA pick ($12M); cash $491M (Jun'26)","currency":"USD","country":"SG","region":"ASIA.JP","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":193.3,"netCashLocal":490.6,"cashPS":2.538,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.31,"bear":2.79,"base":3.87,"bull":5.65,"psychedelic_bull":7.93},"weightedTP":4.08,"meta":{"areas":["gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash"],"modalities":["cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso.adar_aimer","cell_gene_therapy","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.aso","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna.galnac_inhbe","cell_gene_therapy.nucleic_acid.sirna"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":169},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":85},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":28},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":15},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":169},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":84},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":24},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":16},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":7}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.a1at_liver","purity":112},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":76},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":62},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":38},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":11}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":4,"optionality":446,"totalTAM":169.96,"totalWTD":31.147668},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q3 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"wve006","indication":"wve006_aatd","title":"RESOLVED Oct 1 2026 (PARTIAL HIT): FDA agreed WVE-006 registrational path -- one 2-yr trial with 1-yr biomarker interim for AA; existing data NOT the AA basis","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":58,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/30/3335935/0/en/wave-life-sciences-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-provides-business-update.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.37747425,"successTP":4.81788843,"baseTP":4.0788407,"swingPct":18,"successMove":9,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":52,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"wve007","indication":"wve007_obesity","title":"WVE-007 INHBE Ph1 combo + maintenance studies start (obesity)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":48,"success_apr":58,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/WVE/","_confidence":"high","failTP":3.27176231,"successTP":4.76504373,"baseTP":4.0788407,"swingPct":7,"successMove":3,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":18,"expectedReturn":-3,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"wve006","indication":"wve006_aatd","title":"WVE-006 RestorAATion-2 600mg monthly multidose data","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":75,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":86,"_source":"Wave PR Oct 1 2026","_confidence":"medium","failTP":3.51324562,"successTP":4.63132935,"baseTP":4.0788407,"swingPct":28,"successMove":14,"failMove":-14,"yourPoS":64,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":22}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":3.88}},"XENE":{"name":"Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.","subtitle":"Azetukalner (Kv7.2/7.3) FOS NDA SUBMITTED Sep 17 2026 (PDUFA ~Q3'27) · psychiatry enrollment PAUSED (neuropsych AEs); X-NOVA2 MDD topline Q1'27 · PGTCS Ph3 mid'27 · 1.25B cash","currency":"USD","country":"CA","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":99.68,"netCashLocal":1245.1,"cashPS":12.491,"tps":{"mega_bear":12.07,"bear":15.3,"base":20.07,"bull":25.89,"psychedelic_bull":31.56},"weightedTP":20.98,"meta":{"areas":["cns.epilepsy.focal","cns","cns.epilepsy","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","cns.pain"],"modalities":["small_molecule.ion_channel.kv7_opener","small_molecule","small_molecule.ion_channel","small_molecule.ion_channel.nav17_inhibitor"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":62},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":62},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":62},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":35},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":27},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":25},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":14},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":14}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":102},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":60},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":39},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":39},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":18},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":1},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":115},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":89},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":63},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":10},{"area":"cns.pain.chronic_noncancer","purity":3},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":2}],"phase":"nda_filed","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":232,"totalTAM":24.6385,"totalWTD":7.4242225},"catalysts":[{"date":"Sep 17, 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-17","asset":"azetukalner","indication":"aze_fos","title":"REPORTED: Azetukalner FOS NDA submitted to FDA Sep 17 2026 (X-TOLE + X-TOLE2; >1,500 patient-years safety)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/17/3364364/33485/en/xenon-announces-azetukalner-nda-submission-to-fda-for-focal-seizures-and-provides-update-on-psychiatry-clinical-program.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":18.1864031,"successTP":22.0997779,"baseTP":20.9813979,"swingPct":4,"successMove":1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":87,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xen1701","indication":"xen1701_pain","title":"XEN1701 Nav1.7 Ph1 SAD/MAD completion - selectivity + PK data","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":8,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":40,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/12/3216905/33485/en/Xenon-Outlines-Key-Upcoming-Milestones-at-the-2026-J-P-Morgan-Healthcare-Conference.html","_confidence":"medium","failTP":20.6784393,"successTP":21.5691621,"baseTP":20.9813979,"swingPct":3,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Q1 2027","dateSort":"2027-03-31","asset":"azetukalner","indication":"aze_mdd","title":"Azetukalner Ph3 X-NOVA2 topline in MDD (~80% of 450 enrolled; new enrollment paused Sep'26 for neuropsych AEs; guided Q1 2027, pulled in from H1)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":85,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/17/3364364/33485/en/xenon-announces-azetukalner-nda-submission-to-fda-for-focal-seizures-and-provides-update-on-psychiatry-clinical-program.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":19.9227079,"successTP":22.6477571,"baseTP":20.9813979,"swingPct":13,"successMove":8,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"Mid 2027","dateSort":"2027-08-31","asset":"azetukalner","indication":"aze_pgtcs","title":"Azetukalner Ph3 X-ACKT topline in PGTCS (primary completion Apr 2027)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05667142","_confidence":"high","failTP":17.816158,"successTP":23.4229519,"baseTP":20.9813979,"swingPct":27,"successMove":12,"failMove":-15,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Q3 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-17","asset":"azetukalner","indication":"aze_fos","title":"Azetukalner PDUFA decision FOS (~12-mo NME standard review from Sep 17 2026 NDA; rolled from mid-2027)","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":97,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/09/3251686/33485/en/Xenon-Announces-Positive-Topline-Data-from-Phase-3-X-TOLE2-Study-of-Azetukalner-in-Focal-Onset-Seizures-FOS.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":15.3849412,"successTP":22.1668922,"baseTP":20.9813979,"swingPct":33,"successMove":6,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":95,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":20.99}},"XERS":{"name":"Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.","subtitle":"US specialty endocrine biopharma; Recorlev (levoketoconazole) Cushing's syndrome (FDA Dec 2021) + Gvoke (glucagon ready-to-use) hypoglycemia rescue (FDA 2019) + Keveyis (dichlorphenamide) periodic...","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":160,"netCashLocal":80,"cashPS":0.5,"tps":{"mega_bear":3.66,"bear":6.9,"base":13.02,"bull":21.32,"psychedelic_bull":24.72},"weightedTP":14.29,"meta":{"areas":["endocrine.pituitary.cushing","endocrine","endocrine.pituitary","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.cms","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","_established_products.diversified_legacy","_established_products","endocrine.thyroid.hypothyroidism","endocrine.thyroid"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.steroid_synthesis","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon.injectable","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon","small_molecule.enzyme.carbonic_anhydrase","formulation_modifier.delivery_enhancer.xerject","formulation_modifier","formulation_modifier.delivery_enhancer","peptide.hormone_analog.thyroid_hormone_long_acting"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":136},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":68},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":28},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.hypothyroidism","purity":25},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":14},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":12},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.cms","purity":11},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":6},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":142},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":71},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":30},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.hypothyroidism","purity":17},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":15},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.cms","purity":12},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":8},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":6},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"endocrine.thyroid.hypothyroidism","purity":200},{"area":"endocrine.thyroid","purity":100},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary.cushing","purity":0},{"area":"endocrine.pituitary","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t1d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular.cms","purity":0},{"area":"musculoskeletal.neuromuscular","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.diversified_legacy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":20,"rarePurityWtd":21,"optionality":5,"totalTAM":21.0375,"totalWTD":20.0888375},"catalysts":[{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"recorlev","indication":"recorlev_cushings","title":"Recorlev FY26 ramp + Gvoke continued share + XeriJect partnerships","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Xeris FY25","_confidence":"high","failTP":14.2918625,"successTP":14.2918625,"baseTP":14.2918625,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"xp_8121","indication":"xp8121_hypothyroid","title":"XP-8121 Ph3 'Cornerstone' initiation (n=500 US, 54wk vs daily oral levothyroxine, therapeutic-equivalence endpoint) -- YE 2026","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":70,"fail_apr":80,"success_pos":90,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1867096/000186709626000077/exh992xp-8121event.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.0868963,"successTP":15.7964036,"baseTP":14.2918625,"swingPct":19,"successMove":11,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":6,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Late 2028","dateSort":"2028-12-31","asset":"xp_8121","indication":"xp8121_hypothyroid","title":"XP-8121 Ph3 Cornerstone topline (therapeutic equivalence vs daily oral LT4) -- company guidance late 2028; approval/launch target 2030","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":20,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":85,"success_apr":90,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1867096/000186709626000077/exh992xp-8121event.htm","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.453825,"successTP":15.5108421,"baseTP":14.2918625,"swingPct":29,"successMove":9,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":305,"lenses":{"comparable":24.5,"eeRel":0.7229}},"XFOR":{"name":"X4 Pharmaceuticals","subtitle":"Mavorixafor oral CXCR4: XOLREMDI US WHIM commercial; EU approval Apr'26 (Norgine); Ph3 4WARD neutropenia n=126, full enrollment Q4'26, topline H1'28; cash $209M, $80M K2 loan (Oct-26 refi)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":126.34,"netCashLocal":129.9,"cashPS":1.0282,"tps":{"mega_bear":1.23,"bear":1.85,"base":2.99,"bull":4.34,"psychedelic_bull":5.54},"weightedTP":2.78,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.whim","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","oncology","oncology.supportive_care"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.cxcr4_antagonist","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":179},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":90},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.whim","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":10}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":162},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":81},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.whim","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":19},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":19}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.supportive_care.neutropenia","purity":170},{"area":"oncology.supportive_care","purity":85},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency.whim","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":15},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.primary_immunodeficiency","purity":15}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":85,"totalTAM":6.5855,"totalWTD":3.56175},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"mavorixafor","indication":"mavorixafor_neutropenia","title":"Mavorixafor Ph3 4WARD full enrollment chronic neutropenia -- SLIPPED from EOQ3'26 to Q4 2026 (Sep 2026 corporate deck; trial resized to n=126 after FDA sample-size meeting; topline H1 2028)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":58,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":78,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001501697/000150169726000076/x4pharmaceuticalscorpora.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.73426405,"successTP":3.94307791,"baseTP":2.77514265,"swingPct":24,"successMove":13,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":49,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":17}],"salesM2025":15,"lenses":{"comparable":3.85,"peRel":7.7696}},"XLO":{"name":"Xilio Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Tumor-activated masked I-O: XTX501 PD-1/IL-2 IND cleared Aug 26 (Ph1 H2 26), XTX301 IL-12 Ph2 (Gilead option pkg H1 27), vilastobart CTLA-4 MSS CRC (partnering), TCE INDs H2 27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":19.4,"netCashLocal":136,"cashPS":7.0103,"tps":{"mega_bear":0,"bear":0,"base":2.79,"bull":20.57,"psychedelic_bull":81.76},"weightedTP":8.15,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.colorectal","oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma","oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.prostate"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.tumor_activated_ctla4","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine.il12_tumor_activated","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.cytokine","biologic.antibody.bispecific.pd1_il2_tumor_activated","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tumor_activated_tce","biologic.antibody.trispecific.tumor_activated_tce","biologic.antibody.trispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":46},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":36},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":31},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":3}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":62},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":26},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":84},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","purity":83},{"area":"oncology.gi.colorectal","purity":83},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate.mcrpc_post_arpi","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.prostate","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.cldn18_2_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1}],"phase":"phase2","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":7100,"totalTAM":30.3387,"totalWTD":0.42135255},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 31 2025","dateSort":"2025-05-31","asset":"vilastobart","indication":"vila_mss_crc","title":"REPORTED: Vilastobart (XTX101) + atezolizumab updated Ph2 data at ASCO 2025 -- expanded MSS mCRC cohort (Abstract 3553, Poster 222)","type":"phase2_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":58,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":58,"_source":"Xilio IR May 2025","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"ASCO 2025 confirmed initial 27% PRR signal from ASCO GI Jan 2025 in heavily pretreated MSS mCRC (no liver mets) with differentiated safety -- platform-validating for tumor-activated CTLA-4 mechanism.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":1.2165816,"successTP":41.8861227,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":499,"successMove":414,"failMove":-85,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-25,"daysOut":null,"materiality":80},{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-12","asset":"xtx501","indication":"xtx501_io_resistant","title":"REPORTED: Xilio Q1 2026 results -- earned $6M development milestone from AbbVie collaboration; cash runway extended into early 2028","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":25,"success_apr":30,"_source":"Xilio IR May 12 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"AbbVie collab milestone validates the masked-cytokine platform IP. Non-dilutive cash; runway through XTX501 Ph1 + multiple IND filings.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":6.0035157,"successTP":11.8124621,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":21,"successMove":14,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":1,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"Aug 12 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-12","asset":"xtx501","indication":"xtx501_io_resistant","title":"RESOLVED 2026-08-12: XTX501 (tumor-activated PD-1/IL-2 bispec) IND CLEARED by FDA for Ph1/2 trial; first dosing guided H2 2026","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.xiliotx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilio-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","_note":"IND clearance disclosed in the Q2 2026 results PR (Aug 12 2026). Clearance is an operational milestone, not efficacy data -- no assumption change.","_outcome":"success","failTP":5.41115596,"successTP":8.78397118,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":8,"successMove":2,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":1,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"SITC 2026 (Nov)","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"vilastobart","indication":"vila_mss_crc","title":"Vilastobart (XTX101) + atezolizumab next Ph2 MSS mCRC update (UNGUIDED: Q2 2026 PR cites decreased vilastobart clinical activity and gives no date; SITC Nov is a placeholder)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://ir.xiliotx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilio-therapeutics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"low","readout":{"endpoint":"orr_pct","selection":"no_liver_mets","n":30,"route":"iv","pWorks":0.85,"note":"pWorks is NOT the config pos (12 = odds of eventual MSS CRC approval). This catalyst is a cohort UPDATE of a Phase 2 that has already read out positively twice (ASCO GI Jan 2025 27%, ASCO Jun 2025 26%), so the question it answers is whether responses hold, not whether the drug works at all. n=30 is an ESTIMATE of the evaluable liver-mets-excluded cohort -- replace when Xilio discloses it."},"failTP":0.942428014,"successTP":50.8809169,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":612,"successMove":524,"failMove":-88,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":-15,"daysOut":null,"materiality":80},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"xtx501","indication":"xtx501_io_resistant","title":"XTX501 Phase 1 first patient dosed (metastatic NSCLC + select advanced solid tumors)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.xiliotx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilio-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"high","failTP":5.41115596,"successTP":8.78397118,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":8,"successMove":2,"failMove":-7,"yourPoS":1,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":3},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"xtx301","indication":"xtx301_solid","title":"XTX301 (efarindodekin alfa, masked IL-12) Ph2 monotherapy option data package delivered to Gilead -- Gilead opt-in decision (replaces the H2 2026 Ph1B readout, no longer guided)","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":42,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://ir.xiliotx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilio-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"medium","failTP":8.00124863,"successTP":8.45746001,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":4,"successMove":3,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":8,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"TBD (unguided)","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"vilastobart","indication":"vila_mss_crc","title":"Vilastobart partnering for further MSS CRC combination development (Xilio seeking partner; no date guided). Note: the H1 2027 Gilead data package is for XTX301, not vilastobart","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":45,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":68,"_source":"https://ir.xiliotx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilio-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"low","failTP":1.21653378,"successTP":53.058604,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":254,"successMove":220,"failMove":-34,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":-26,"daysOut":null,"materiality":32},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"xtx501","indication":"xtx501_io_resistant","title":"XTX501 (tumor-activated PD-1/IL-2) FIRST Ph1 NSCLC DATA -- key clinical readout for masked IL-2 platform","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":32,"success_pos":55,"success_apr":62,"_source":"Xilio IR Q1 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":6.02473819,"successTP":21.5528632,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":133,"successMove":115,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":5,"expectedReturn":-11,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"xtx601_cldn","indication":"xtx601_cldn_gastric","title":"XTX601 (masked CLDN18.2xCD3 TCE) IND filing (SLIPPED: guided H2 2027 at Q2 2026, was H2 2026 - H1 2027)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.xiliotx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilio-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.95957219,"successTP":8.20013755,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":1,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":1,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-12-15","asset":"psma_steap1","indication":"psma_steap1_mcrpc","title":"PSMA+STEAP1 SEECR multi-specific TCE IND filing (SLIPPED: guided H2 2027 at Q2 2026, was 2027; mCRPC; co-stim platform)","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"_source":"https://ir.xiliotx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilio-therapeutics-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results","_confidence":"medium","failTP":7.25811463,"successTP":8.38046438,"baseTP":8.14956685,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":1,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":8.3},"readouts":[{"a":"vilastobart","ind":"vila_mss_crc","ds":"2025-05-31","area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"own","med":5.4619231,"lo":0,"hi":32.6955034,"pBeatBest":0.17515,"bestDrug":"botensilimab + balstilimab","bestValue":17},{"a":"vilastobart","ind":"vila_mss_crc","ds":"2026-11-15","area":"oncology.gi.colorectal.mss","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"own","med":21.7213403,"lo":0,"hi":41.3420118,"pBeatBest":0.6599,"bestDrug":"botensilimab + balstilimab","bestValue":17},{"a":"xtx301","ind":"xtx301_solid","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":9.78808099,"lo":0,"hi":39.1877306,"pBeatBest":0.0643,"bestDrug":"lifileucel (TIL)","bestValue":31.4},{"a":"xtx501","ind":"xtx501_io_resistant","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.post_io","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":10.4451473,"lo":0,"hi":35.8212955,"pBeatBest":0.09745,"bestDrug":"datopotamab deruxtecan","bestValue":26.4}]},"XNCR":{"name":"Xencor","subtitle":"XmAb platform: XmAb942 anti-TL1A Ph2b XENITH-UC BLINDED interim YE'26 + PRIMARY H2'27; XmAb819 ENPP3 ccRCC Ph1 2H'26; XmAb541 CLDN6xCD3 gyn/germ Ph1 2H'26; XmAb412 TL1AxIL23 FIH Q3'26; cash $541M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":73.34,"netCashLocal":541,"cashPS":7.3766,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.79,"bear":7.82,"base":11.88,"bull":18.75,"psychedelic_bull":29.81},"weightedTP":12.35,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","oncology","oncology.genitourinary","oncology.genitourinary.rcc","immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","immunology","immunology.inflammatory_systemic","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","immunology.inflammatory_gi","immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.tce_2plus1_enpp3","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tce_cd20_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tce_cd19_cd3","biologic.antibody.bispecific.cytokine_dual","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_cytokine","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.antibody.bispecific.tce"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":59},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":56},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":48},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":37},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":28},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":13},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":2}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":63},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":60},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":49},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":36},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":30},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":17},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":10},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":3},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":2}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","purity":69},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","purity":49},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi","purity":45},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":26},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic","purity":24},{"area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.crohns","purity":20},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc.2l_plus","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.genitourinary.rcc","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":6}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":291,"totalTAM":111.7195,"totalWTD":28.5880764},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-20","asset":"xmab942","indication":"xm942_uc","title":"REPORTED (2026-05, completed): XmAb942 Phase 1 healthy-volunteer FINAL data presented at DDW 2026 -- confirms extended half-life + TL1A inhibition profile supports best-in-class positioning (t1/2 74d supports Q12W; now in XENITH-UC Ph2b)","type":"conference_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"Xencor IR May 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Final Ph1 healthy-vol data at DDW May 2026 confirmed PK + TL1A inhibition profile. De-risks XENITH-UC Ph2b ongoing.","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":11.1687795,"successTP":13.5992817,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":17,"successMove":9,"failMove":-8,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":14},{"date":"Aug 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-05","asset":"xmab412","indication":"xm412_ibd","title":"REPORTED: RESOLVED 2026-08-05 -- XmAb412 (TL1A x IL-23p19, first XenLock bispecific) Phase 1 study STARTED; healthy-participant data guided H1 2027","type":"phase1_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":40,"success_apr":50,"_source":"Xencor IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.9303777,"successTP":12.8028126,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":12,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-25","asset":"xmab819","indication":"xmab819_rcc","title":"XmAb819 ENPP3 TCE Ph1 ccRCC expansion data -- ESMO 2026 proffered oral (Oct 23-27); initial 25% PR / 70% DCR; registration-enabling study planned 2027","type":"phase1_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":18,"fail_apr":28,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326732/000132673226000042/xncr-20260506xexx991.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.5072338,"successTP":12.8734643,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-15","asset":"xmab657","indication":"xmab657_iim","title":"XmAb657 CD19 x CD3 extended half-life Ph1 myositis (IIM) progress update","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_source":"Xencor IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"medium","failTP":11.4453426,"successTP":12.8488328,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":8,"successMove":3,"failMove":-5,"yourPoS":44,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":4},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"xmab541","indication":"xm541_gyn","title":"XmAb541 CLDN6 x CD3 Ph1 dose-escalation data + recommended Ph3 target dose (advanced gyn + germ cell tumors)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"Xencor IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.1469967,"successTP":12.5427721,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":3,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"plamotamab","indication":"plam_ra","title":"Plamotamab CD20xCD3 Ph1b RA progress update (autoimmune pivot) -- ROLLED: guided 2H 2026 only (Q2 8-K)","type":"phase1_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":25,"fail_apr":35,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326732/000132673226000042/xncr-20260506xexx991.htm","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.5091136,"successTP":13.5634738,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":18,"successMove":7,"failMove":-10,"yourPoS":47,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"xmab942","indication":"xm942_uc","title":"XmAb942 XENITH-UC BLINDED interim analysis (timing milestone -- not topline; key binary readout deferred to H2 2027)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":70,"_source":"Xencor IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"high","failTP":11.1687795,"successTP":13.5992817,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":6,"successMove":3,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":42,"expectedReturn":-1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":5},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"xmab541","indication":"xm541_gyn","title":"XmAb541 pivotal Ph3 trial initiation (CLDN6+ ovarian/endometrial/germ cell tumors)","type":"phase3_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":60,"success_apr":68,"_source":"Xencor IR FY26 plan","_confidence":"medium","failTP":12.2093916,"successTP":12.6243005,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":1,"successMove":1,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":38,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"xmab942","indication":"xm942_uc","title":"XmAb942 XENITH-UC Phase 2b 12-week induction PRIMARY ENDPOINT (KEY BINARY -- defines TL1A class positioning vs MRK tulisokibart Ph3 + RHHBY afimkibart Ph3)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":82,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Xencor IR -- Phase 2b primary endpoint analysis 2H 2027","_confidence":"high","failTP":10.1703136,"successTP":14.6756232,"baseTP":12.3451741,"swingPct":37,"successMove":19,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":60,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":16.3},"readouts":[{"a":"xmab942","ind":"xm942_uc","ds":"2026-05-20","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":8.94045413,"lo":-6.67100194,"hi":21.2206378,"pBeatBest":0.2452,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7},{"a":"plamotamab","ind":"plam_ra","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"immunology.inflammatory_systemic.rheumatoid_arthritis","endpoint":"acr20_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":61.1463,"lo":32.6562299,"hi":83.1007265,"pBeatBest":0.39615,"bestDrug":"upadacitinib 15mg","bestValue":64},{"a":"xmab541","ind":"xm541_gyn","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":21.1700762,"lo":0,"hi":50.2013061,"pBeatBest":0.3332,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3},{"a":"xmab942","ind":"xm942_uc","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"immunology.inflammatory_gi.ulcerative_colitis","endpoint":"clinical_remission_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":11.3514045,"lo":-0.516149154,"hi":21.9182027,"pBeatBest":0.33295,"bestDrug":"guselkumab","bestValue":13.7}]},"YMAB":{"name":"Y-mAbs Therapeutics (acquired by SERB Pharmaceuticals Sep 2025)","subtitle":"Pediatric rare oncology -- DANYELZA naxitamab GD2 mAb (R/R high-risk neuroblastoma) + SADA pretargeted RIT platform. Acquired by SERB Pharma Sep 2025 ($412M)","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":true,"sharesOut":45.4,"netCashLocal":null,"cashPS":null,"tps":{},"weightedTP":null,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","oncology","oncology.neuroendocrine","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","oncology.lymphoma","oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","oncology.skin","oncology.skin.melanoma"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.mab.gd2","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.mab","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter.sada_pretargeted","radiopharmaceutical","radiopharmaceutical.beta_emitter"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":45},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":40},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":35},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":20}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":120},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":60},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":27},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":13}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine.neuroblastoma","purity":187},{"area":"oncology.neuroendocrine","purity":94},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl.3l_plus","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lymphoma.dlbcl","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma.2l_plus","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.skin.melanoma","purity":2}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":true,"rarePurity":65,"rarePurityWtd":87,"optionality":203,"totalTAM":2.66655,"totalWTD":0.88024464},"catalysts":[],"salesM2025":78},"ZBIO":{"name":"Zenas BioPharma","subtitle":"Obexelimab CD19xFcgRIIb: INDIGO Ph3 IgG4-RD POSITIVE (56% flare redux, NEJM); BLA ACCEPTED, PDUFA May 27 2027; SunStone Ph2 SLE topline Q4'26; ZB021 oral IL-17 Ph1 data YE26; cash $673.9M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":65.18,"netCashLocal":599.8,"cashPS":9.2022,"tps":{"mega_bear":11.99,"bear":17.3,"base":27.53,"bull":33.82,"psychedelic_bull":38.04},"weightedTP":26.67,"meta":{"areas":["immunology.autoimmune.igg4_rd","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","immunology.autoimmune.sle","hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","hematology","hematology.immune_cytopenias"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.cd19_fcgr2b_bifunctional","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific"],"focus":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":139},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":94},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.igg4_rd","purity":49},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":13},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":6}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.igg4_rd","purity":106},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":95},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":85},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":9},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":5}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.igg4_rd","purity":105},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":80},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","purity":54},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias.warm_aiha","purity":40},{"area":"hematology.immune_cytopenias","purity":20}],"phase":"phase3","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":6,"rarePurityWtd":5,"optionality":144,"totalTAM":17.8125,"totalWTD":7.28749325},"catalysts":[{"date":"May 28, 2026","dateSort":"2026-05-28","asset":"obexelimab","indication":"obex_igg4rd","title":"REPORTED: Obexelimab IgG4-RD BLA submitted May 28 2026 (INDIGO Ph3 POSITIVE Jan26 56% flare reduction, NEJM Jun26); PDUFA pending","type":"bla_submission","binary":false,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://investors.zenasbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zenas-biopharma-announces-positive-results-phase-3-indigo","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Zenas BioPharma announces BLA submission to FDA for obexelimab in IgG4-RD based on positive Phase 3 INDIGO trial results (56% flare reduction).","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":23.291405,"successTP":29.1902485,"baseTP":26.6695588,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":89,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":7},{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-30","asset":"obexelimab","indication":"obex_sle","title":"Obexelimab SunStone Ph2 SLE topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":32,"fail_apr":42,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/ZBIO/zenas-bio-pharma-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and-7nhg4jtaqvqj.html","_confidence":"high","failTP":23.7128788,"successTP":33.8813581,"baseTP":26.6695588,"swingPct":38,"successMove":27,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":39,"expectedReturn":4,"daysOut":null,"materiality":16},{"date":"Q2 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-27","asset":"obexelimab","indication":"obex_igg4rd","title":"Obexelimab FDA PDUFA action date, IgG4-RD (BLA accepted; first-in-disease) - target May 27 2027","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"https://investors.zenasbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zenas-biopharma-announces-positive-results-phase-3-indigo","_confidence":"high","failTP":20.2693297,"successTP":29.2410734,"baseTP":26.6695588,"swingPct":34,"successMove":10,"failMove":-24,"yourPoS":94,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":33}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":37.24},"readouts":[{"a":"obexelimab","ind":"obex_sle","ds":"2026-11-30","area":"immunology.autoimmune.sle","endpoint":"sri4_delta_pp","unit":"pp","src":"class","med":9.69439719,"lo":-15,"hi":49.9424947,"pBeatBest":0.0456,"bestDrug":"telitacicept 240mg","bestValue":44.5}]},"ZEAL":{"name":"Zealand Pharma A/S","subtitle":"Danish peptide platform | Petrelintide amylin (Roche $1.65B + $5.3B max) | Survodutide GLP-1/GCG (BI; SYNCHRONIZE-1 +16.6%) | Dasiglucagon CHI + glepaglutide SBS","currency":"DKK","country":"DK","region":"EUROPE.NORDICS","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":70.62,"netCashLocal":15109,"cashPS":213.9479,"tps":{"mega_bear":213.74,"bear":293.53,"base":369.22,"bull":428.2,"psychedelic_bull":458.38},"weightedTP":364.14,"meta":{"areas":["cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.obesity","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.liver","endocrine.metabolic.congenital_hyperinsulinism","endocrine","endocrine.metabolic","_royalty.zealand_novo","_royalty","gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","gastro_hepatology.luminal"],"modalities":["peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.amylin_analog","peptide","peptide.hormone_analog","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin","peptide.hormone_analog.incretin.glp1_glucagon","peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon.analog","peptide.hormone_analog.glucagon","peptide.hormone_analog.glp2_analog"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":181},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":91},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":15},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":7},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":3},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.congenital_hyperinsulinism","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.zealand_novo","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":187},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":93},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":11},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":6},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.congenital_hyperinsulinism","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":1},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":0},{"area":"_royalty.zealand_novo","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","purity":144},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity","purity":72},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic.congenital_hyperinsulinism","purity":38},{"area":"endocrine.metabolic","purity":19},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.short_bowel_syndrome","purity":17},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":8},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":1},{"area":"_royalty.zealand_novo","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":34,"totalTAM":317.950052,"totalWTD":237.935949},"catalysts":[{"date":"Apr 29 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-04-29","asset":"petrelintide","indication":"obesity_petr","title":"REPORTED: Roche/Zealand DECISION to advance petrelintide to Phase 3 (announced; Ph3a initiation H2 2026 triggers $575M development milestone; $125M anniversary Q2 2026 separate)","type":"partnership","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ZEAL/Roche PR Apr 29 2026","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"completed","_outcomeRationale":"Migrated from _resolvedAt=2026-04-29 (legacy convention).","_outcomeConfidence":"low","failTP":346.555806,"successTP":388.16317,"baseTP":364.14394,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":54,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"Jun 7, 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-07","asset":"survodutide_royalty","indication":"obesity_survo","title":"REPORTED: Survodutide SYNCHRONIZE-1 Ph3 obesity full data (ADA 2026; topline +16.6% wt loss Apr 28 2026)","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"BI Apr 28 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"mixed","_outcomeRationale":"Boehringer Ingelheim announced survodutide Phase III (SYNCHRONIZE-1) demonstrated 34% visceral fat and 63% liver fat reduction in obesity, supporting ongoing MASH development.","_outcomeConfidence":"medium","failTP":358.298744,"successTP":369.937811,"baseTP":364.14394,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":9},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"petrelintide","indication":"obesity_petr","title":"Petrelintide ZUPREME-2 Ph2 obesity+T2D 28wk topline","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":50,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Zealand Apr 29 2026 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":290.075882,"successTP":409.016037,"baseTP":364.14394,"swingPct":32,"successMove":12,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":26},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-15","asset":"petrelintide","indication":"obesity_petr","title":"Petrelintide Phase 3a actual study initiation -- triggers $575M Roche development milestone payment","type":"phase3_start","binary":true,"fail_pos":85,"fail_apr":90,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":97,"_source":"Roche/ZEAL guidance","_confidence":"high","failTP":346.283259,"successTP":450.110092,"baseTP":364.14394,"swingPct":9,"successMove":7,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":68,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"H2 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"glepaglutide","indication":"sbs_glep","title":"Glepaglutide EU CHMP opinion / MAA review completion (company now guides H2 2026; MAA submitted Jun 2 2025)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":92,"_source":"Zealand MAA submission","_confidence":"medium","failTP":350.216973,"successTP":384.798279,"baseTP":364.14394,"swingPct":5,"successMove":3,"failMove":-2,"yourPoS":32,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"petrelintide","indication":"obesity_petr","title":"FY26 Roche milestones up to $700M ($575M Ph3 init + $125M anniversary Q2 2026)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Zealand FY25 results Feb 19 2026","_confidence":"high","failTP":346.555806,"successTP":388.16317,"baseTP":364.14394,"swingPct":4,"successMove":2,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":54,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":8},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"survodutide_royalty","indication":"mash_survo","title":"Survodutide LIVERAGE MASH Ph3 readout (FDA Breakthrough Therapy)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":40,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"BI pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":360.08102,"successTP":366.409887,"baseTP":364.14394,"swingPct":2,"successMove":1,"failMove":-1,"yourPoS":65,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":1}],"salesM2025":5,"lenses":{"comparable":330.27,"eeRel":3.2414,"peRel":3.4462},"readouts":[{"a":"survodutide_royalty","ind":"obesity_survo","ds":"2026-06-07","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.161247,"lo":3.12693896,"hi":28.7497955,"pBeatBest":0.1183,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"petrelintide","ind":"obesity_petr","ds":"2026-09-30","area":"cardio_metabolic.obesity.general","endpoint":"weight_loss_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":17.2490555,"lo":2.95980087,"hi":29.1446076,"pBeatBest":0.12435,"bestDrug":"retatrutide 12mg","bestValue":24.2},{"a":"survodutide_royalty","ind":"mash_survo","ds":"2027-09-30","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":27.0759714,"lo":5.78678359,"hi":52.3673053,"pBeatBest":0.0978,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"ZLAB":{"name":"Zai Lab Limited","subtitle":"China commercial (ZEJULA, VYVGART/Hytrulo, NUZYRA, XACDURO, AUGTYRO, TIVDAK) + KarXT launched Jun'26 + zoci (ZL-1310) DLL3 ADC pivotal DLLEVATE, US BLA 2027; bema gastric Ph3 halted by Amgen","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":112.24,"netCashLocal":479.4,"cashPS":4.2712,"tps":{"mega_bear":8.84,"bear":12.83,"base":19.83,"bull":29.02,"psychedelic_bull":40.7},"weightedTP":21.57,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","immunology","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","oncology.lung","oncology.lung.nsclc","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns","cns.psychiatry","oncology.gi.gastric.fgfr2b_pos","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric","oncology.lung.sclc","oncology.gynecologic.cervical","nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","nephrology","nephrology.glomerular"],"modalities":["small_molecule.enzyme.parp1_2","small_molecule","small_molecule.enzyme","biologic.antibody.fragment.fcrn_fc","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.fragment","small_molecule.kinase.ros1","small_molecule.kinase","small_molecule.gpcr.muscarinic_m1_m4","small_molecule.gpcr","biologic.antibody.mab.anti_fgfr2b","biologic.antibody.mab","biologic.adc.topo1_payload.dll3","biologic.adc","biologic.adc.topo1_payload","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload.tissue_factor","biologic.adc.tubulin_payload","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion.taci_fc","biologic.recombinant_protein","biologic.recombinant_protein.fusion"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":57},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":43},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":37},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":32},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":31},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":29},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":9},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.fgfr2b_pos","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":1},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":1}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":67},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":40},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":38},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":36},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":33},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":24},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":12},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":7},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":6},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.fgfr2b_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":145},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":72},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","purity":14},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":13},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.1l_maintenance","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":11},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune","purity":8},{"area":"oncology.lung.sclc","purity":8},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular.iga_nephropathy","purity":5},{"area":"oncology.lung","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.cervical","purity":3},{"area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myositis","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.glomerular","purity":2},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc.ros1","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.lung.nsclc","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.fgfr2b_pos","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":0},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":37,"rarePurityWtd":38,"optionality":17,"totalTAM":42.90264,"totalWTD":36.7138954},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 2026","dateSort":"2026-06-30","asset":"karxt_zai","indication":"karxt_china_schiz","title":"REPORTED: KarXT commercially launched in mainland China June 2026 (NMPA approved Dec 2025); NRDL inclusion to be sought in 2027 (Q2 2026 results PR)","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"ZLAB pipeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":21.5710658,"successTP":21.5710658,"baseTP":21.5710658,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Aug 17 2026 (precise)","dateSort":"2026-08-17","asset":"vyvgart_zai","indication":"vyv_mg_china","title":"REPORTED: ALKIVIA Ph3 HIT Aug 17 2026 -- efgartigimod met primary endpoint in autoimmune myositis (+15.4-pt TIS vs pbo at Wk52, p=0.0011); Zai Lab co-announced, adds a third China indication behind gMG + CIDP","type":"phase3_data","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_note":"Zai Lab holds Greater China rights to efgartigimod and enrolled Chinese patients in ALKIVIA. VYVGART is already commercial in China (gMG + CIDP) so pos/apr are already 100; myositis is incremental China TAM that is NOT separately modelled here. No assumption change applied -- upside sits in the vyvgart_zai pen lever, flagged rather than auto-moved because no pre-declared catalyst sized it.","_source":"Zai Lab / argenx joint PR 2026-08-17 (biospace: zai-lab-and-argenx-announce-positive-topline-results-from-phase-3-alkivia-trial-of-efgartigimod-in-autoimmune-myositis)","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeConfidence":"high","failTP":21.5710658,"successTP":21.5710658,"baseTP":21.5710658,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"Oct 2026","dateSort":"2026-10-31","asset":"zl_1310","indication":"zl1310_sclc","title":"Zoci (ZL-1310) 1L ES-SCLC Ph1 data (zoci + atezolizumab +/- chemo) at ESMO 2026; 1L registrational Ph3 + epNEC registrational start H2 2026. SLIPPED/REDEFINED (was 2026-09-30 registrational interim): DLLEVATE 2L+ enrollment completes H1 2027, interim analysis then supports US accelerated-approval BLA in 2027","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"ZLAB JPM 2026","_confidence":"medium","failTP":19.2951019,"successTP":22.8646414,"baseTP":21.5710658,"swingPct":17,"successMove":6,"failMove":-11,"yourPoS":73,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":11},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"bema_zai","indication":"bema_gastric_china","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-30 (FAIL, event Nov 2025): Bemarituzumab gastric Ph3 readouts (Amgen-partnered) -- FORTITUDE-101 final analysis showed an attenuated OS benefit (Sep 2025) and Amgen stopped FORTITUDE-102 (bema + chemo + nivolumab, 1L FGFR2b+ gastric) for inadequate efficacy after a DMC-requested ad hoc analysis (Nov 2025). Phantom forward catalyst","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/amgen-halts-gastric-cancer-trial-after-antibody-did-not-meet-our-standard-efficacy","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeConfidence":"high","_note":"2026-09-30 freshness: pos/apr moved to pre-declared fail_pos/fail_apr (30/55) in base, scaled monotonically (was 35/55, 55/70, 75/85, 85/92, 95/96 -> 10/30, 20/45, 30/55, 40/62, 50/70). Capital structure refreshed from Q2 2026 PR: cash+ST inv+current restricted 717.5M (was 790), short-term debt 238.1M entered (was absent), sharesOut 112.24M ADS-equiv (1,122.4M ordinary / 10). 2026-09-30 user-directed: asset set status=discontinued (Amgen, Q4'25 results Feb 2026: does not intend to pursue approval of bemarituzumab in 1L gastric based on FORTITUDE-101/-102; FORTITUDE-103 also stopped; EU orphan designation withdrawn at sponsor request Apr 2026; absent from Zai's Q2'26 update). pos/apr 10/30,20/45,30/55,40/62,50/70 -> 1/10,2/15,3/20,5/25,8/30.","failTP":21.5709406,"successTP":21.6067188,"baseTP":21.5710658,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":3,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":460,"lenses":{"comparable":16.58},"readouts":[{"a":"vyvgart_zai","ind":"vyv_mg_china","ds":"2026-08-17","area":"immunology.neuromuscular_autoimmune.myasthenia_gravis","endpoint":"mg_adl_delta_points","unit":"pts","src":"class","med":1.75255328,"lo":0.225296229,"hi":3.0433959,"pBeatBest":0.10515,"bestDrug":"rozanolixizumab 7mg/kg","bestValue":2.59}]},"ZNTL":{"name":"Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","subtitle":"Azenosertib (ZN-c3, WEE1): DENALI Ph2 Cyclin E1+ PROC topline YE26; positive ASCO26 paclitaxel-combo PROC (Ph1b 39% ORR); ASPENOVA Ph3 + TETON USC Ph2 ongoing | cash $212M to late'27","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":72.1,"netCashLocal":211.8,"cashPS":2.9376,"tps":{"mega_bear":2.48,"bear":3.17,"base":4.86,"bull":7.25,"psychedelic_bull":9.73},"weightedTP":4.69,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","oncology","oncology.gynecologic","oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","oncology.gynecologic.endometrial"],"modalities":["small_molecule.kinase.wee1","small_molecule","small_molecule.kinase"],"focus":[{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":171},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":15},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":15}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":168},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":16},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":16}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.endometrial","purity":158},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic","purity":100},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian","purity":21}],"phase":"phase3","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":217,"totalTAM":13.084,"totalWTD":4.1219005},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jun 1 2026 (ASCO)","dateSort":"2026-06-01","asset":"azen","indication":"azen_ovarian","title":"REPORTED 2026-06-01 (ASCO): azenosertib + paclitaxel Ph1b MUIR in PROC -- ORR 39.1% (n=46), 50% at 250mg 5:2, mPFS 7.3mo; assumptions already nudged +3pts, dominant binary is still DENALI YE26","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":60,"_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_note":"ASCO 2026 (Abstract #5529, Jun 1): Ph1b MUIR azenosertib + paclitaxel in PROC showed 39% ORR (50% at 250mg cohort), 7.3mo PFS, manageable safety (Dec 1 2025 cutoff, n=46). Positive but secondary Ph1b combo signal; dominant binary remains DENALI Ph2 (YE26). Assumptions nudged +3pts (not full move). Source: Zentalis ASCO 2026 release May 21 2026 (ir.zentalis.com/globenewswire).","failTP":4.06736222,"successTP":4.99674597,"baseTP":4.68524178,"swingPct":20,"successMove":7,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"YE 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"azen","indication":"azen_ovarian","title":"Azenosertib DENALI Part 2 Ph2 Cyclin E1+ PROC topline (DOMINANT BINARY)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":5,"fail_apr":10,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_confidence":"high","failTP":4.05463641,"successTP":5.19943452,"baseTP":4.68524178,"swingPct":24,"successMove":11,"failMove":-13,"yourPoS":53,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":10},{"date":"TBD (deprioritized)","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"azen","indication":"azen_usc","title":"Azenosertib TETON Ph2 USC monotherapy topline -- DEPRIORITIZED (enrollment complete, trial 'Completed' on CT.gov ~Mar'26, but no topline guided; 2026 updates focus solely on ovarian DENALI/ASPENOVA)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":10,"fail_apr":15,"success_pos":45,"success_apr":55,"_note":"As of 2026-08-20: TETON enrollment complete and CT.gov lists it 'Completed' (~Mar 2026), but original 2H'25 topline guidance never materialized and all 2026 corporate communications pivot to ovarian (DENALI Part 2 YE'26, ASPENOVA). USC monotherapy now a partnering/capital-allocation decision with NO guided readout date -- dateSort pushed to mid-2027 so it no longer reads as a live near-term binary. The real near-term catalyst is DENALI (dateSort 2026-12-15).","_confidence":"low","failTP":2.8211318,"successTP":5.82625572,"baseTP":4.68524178,"swingPct":64,"successMove":24,"failMove":-40,"yourPoS":50,"expectedReturn":-8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":38},{"date":"2027","dateSort":"2027-09-30","asset":"azen","indication":"azen_ovarian","title":"Azenosertib potential accelerated approval filing (post-DENALI)","type":"nda_submission","binary":false,"_confidence":"medium","failTP":4.0482735,"successTP":4.41024218,"baseTP":4.68524178,"swingPct":2,"successMove":-1,"failMove":-3,"yourPoS":34,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":2}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":4.69},"readouts":[{"a":"azen","ind":"azen_ovarian","ds":"2026-06-01","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":20.9712418,"lo":0,"hi":45.5339295,"pBeatBest":0.30895,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3},{"a":"azen","ind":"azen_ovarian","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"oncology.gynecologic.ovarian.platinum_resistant","endpoint":"orr_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":21.1103684,"lo":0,"hi":45.344521,"pBeatBest":0.30925,"bestDrug":"bevacizumab + chemo","bestValue":27.3}]},"ZURA":{"name":"Zura Bio Limited","subtitle":"Tibulizumab IL-17A x BAFF bispecific: TibuSHIELD HS fully enrolled n=247, topline Q4'26; TibuSURE SSc enrolled, H1'27; PMR 3rd indication; crebankitug Ph2-ready; $225M cash","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"clinical_stage","private":false,"sharesOut":126.8,"netCashLocal":205.1,"cashPS":1.6175,"tps":{"mega_bear":0.96,"bear":1.28,"base":2.01,"bull":3.04,"psychedelic_bull":4.25},"weightedTP":2.33,"meta":{"areas":["dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","dermatology","dermatology.inflammatory_derm","immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","immunology","immunology.autoimmune","_platform.il7ra_discovery","_platform"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.il17a_baff","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","biologic.antibody.mab.il7r_inhibitor","biologic.antibody.mab"],"focus":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":173},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":87},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":27},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":13},{"area":"_platform.il7ra_discovery","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":179},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":90},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":21},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":10},{"area":"_platform.il7ra_discovery","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","purity":121},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune.systemic_sclerosis","purity":79},{"area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm","purity":61},{"area":"immunology.autoimmune","purity":39},{"area":"_platform.il7ra_discovery","purity":0}],"phase":"phase2","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":13,"rarePurityWtd":10,"optionality":214,"totalTAM":9.9164,"totalWTD":3.162984},"catalysts":[{"date":"Q4 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-15","asset":"tibulizumab","indication":"tibu_hs","title":"TibuSHIELD Ph2 HS topline (n=225, global; HiSCR75 primary endpoint)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":30,"success_pos":75,"success_apr":82,"_source":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250520429104/en/Zura-Bio-Launches-Global-Phase-2-TibuSHIELD-Study-to-Evaluate-Tibulizumab-in-Adults-with-Hidradenitis-Suppurativa","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.68462596,"successTP":2.77453495,"baseTP":2.33176025,"swingPct":47,"successMove":19,"failMove":-28,"yourPoS":55,"expectedReturn":-2,"daysOut":null,"materiality":25},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-05-15","asset":"tibulizumab","indication":"tibu_ssc","title":"TibuSURE Ph2 SSc topline (n=80; mRSS / skin fibrosis primary endpoint)","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":12,"fail_apr":25,"success_pos":65,"success_apr":75,"_source":"https://investors.zurabio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zura-bio-present-phase-2-tibusure-study-design-poster-evaluating","_confidence":"high","failTP":1.70878066,"successTP":2.76137211,"baseTP":2.33176025,"swingPct":45,"successMove":18,"failMove":-27,"yourPoS":45,"expectedReturn":-7,"daysOut":null,"materiality":24},{"date":"H2 2027","dateSort":"2027-10-31","asset":"crebankitug","indication":"creb_autoimmune","title":"Crebankitug Ph2 IND filing + indication selection (AD / alopecia / vitiligo class)","type":"phase2_start","binary":false,"fail_pos":40,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":70,"success_apr":80,"_source":"https://zurabio.com/pipeline/zb-168/","_confidence":"medium","failTP":2.33176025,"successTP":2.33176025,"baseTP":2.33176025,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":15,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":0,"lenses":{"comparable":2.83},"readouts":[{"a":"tibulizumab","ind":"tibu_hs","ds":"2026-12-15","area":"dermatology.inflammatory_derm.hidradenitis_suppurativa","endpoint":"hiscr50_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":52.6028926,"lo":30.3910838,"hi":71.472506,"pBeatBest":0.2556,"bestDrug":"adalimumab","bestValue":58.9}]},"ZVRA":{"name":"Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.","subtitle":"Rare-disease specialty: Q2'26 net rev $39.7M (+53%), MIPLYFFA US $30.2M (patent to 2041, 69% covered lives), adj net income $15.2M | Olpruva + celiprolol vEDS Ph3 + KP1077 IH | cash $260.2M","currency":"USD","country":"US","region":"AMERICAS.US","archetype":"big_pharma","private":false,"sharesOut":59.3,"netCashLocal":260.2,"cashPS":4.3879,"tps":{"mega_bear":5.91,"bear":8.69,"base":12.55,"bull":17.2,"psychedelic_bull":23.15},"weightedTP":13.33,"meta":{"areas":["metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.niemann_pick_c","metabolic_genetic","metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","musculoskeletal.connective_tissue.veds","musculoskeletal","musculoskeletal.connective_tissue","cns.sleep.idiopathic_hypersomnia","cns","cns.sleep","cns.sleep.narcolepsy"],"modalities":["small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone.hsp_arimoclomol","small_molecule","small_molecule.stabilizer_chaperone","small_molecule.binder_chelator.nitrogen_scavenger","small_molecule.binder_chelator","small_molecule.gpcr.beta_blocker","small_molecule.gpcr","small_molecule.transporter.dat_net","small_molecule.transporter"],"focus":[{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":133},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":81},{"area":"cns.sleep.idiopathic_hypersomnia","purity":30},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":14},{"area":"musculoskeletal.connective_tissue.veds","purity":14},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.niemann_pick_c","purity":9},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":7},{"area":"musculoskeletal.connective_tissue","purity":7},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":5}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":87},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.niemann_pick_c","purity":59},{"area":"musculoskeletal.connective_tissue.veds","purity":54},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":44},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":29},{"area":"musculoskeletal.connective_tissue","purity":27},{"area":"cns.sleep.idiopathic_hypersomnia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":0},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage.niemann_pick_c","purity":113},{"area":"musculoskeletal.connective_tissue.veds","purity":73},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.lysosomal_storage","purity":56},{"area":"musculoskeletal.connective_tissue","purity":36},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle.other_ucd","purity":15},{"area":"metabolic_genetic.urea_cycle","purity":7},{"area":"cns.sleep.idiopathic_hypersomnia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.sleep","purity":0},{"area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":93,"rarePurityWtd":73,"optionality":521,"totalTAM":9.9108,"totalWTD":1.594735},"catalysts":[{"date":"Jul 24 2026","dateSort":"2026-07-24","asset":"miplyffa","indication":"miplyffa_npc","title":"REPORTED 2026-07-24: CHMP NEGATIVE opinion on arimoclomol (Miplyffa) for NPC on efficacy grounds; Zevra requested re-examination (no timeline)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":50,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":88,"success_apr":92,"_source":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/24/3332789/16626/en/Zevra-Therapeutics-Provides-Update-on-Regulatory-Submission-for-Arimoclomol-for-the-Treatment-of-Niemann-Pick-Disease-Type-C-NPC-in-the-European-Union.html","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"fail","_outcomeRationale":"Miss applies to the EU slice only; the asset is US-commercial so pos/apr stay 100 -- the EU company_slice is the lever (flagged, not auto-edited).","failTP":13.3318669,"successTP":13.3318669,"baseTP":13.3318669,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-30","asset":"kp1077","indication":"kp1077_ih","title":"RESOLVED 2026-03-16 (divested): KP1077 Phase 3 idiopathic hypersomnia readout (post-positive Ph2 Mar'24) -- KP1077 sold to Commave with the SDX portfolio; no longer a Zevra readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Zevra Q4'25 PR","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"unknown","_outcomeRationale":"Asset divested to Commave Mar 16 2026 -- the readout is no longer a Zevra event","failTP":13.3318669,"successTP":16.8261532,"baseTP":13.3318669,"swingPct":26,"successMove":26,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"celiprolol","indication":"celiprolol_veds","title":"Celiprolol DiSCOVER Phase 3 readout (vEDS event-driven; first FDA-approved vEDS therapy if positive)","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":30,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Zevra clinical trials page","_confidence":"medium","failTP":10.8830944,"successTP":14.2658555,"baseTP":13.3318669,"swingPct":25,"successMove":7,"failMove":-18,"yourPoS":75,"expectedReturn":1,"daysOut":null,"materiality":19},{"date":"FY 2026","dateSort":"2026-12-31","asset":"miplyffa","indication":"miplyffa_npc","title":"Miplyffa FY26 revenue ramp ($150M+ tracking) + Aqneursa competitive dynamics","type":"milestone","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"Zevra Q1'26 PR","_confidence":"high","failTP":13.3318669,"successTP":13.3318669,"baseTP":13.3318669,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"H1 2027","dateSort":"2027-04-30","asset":"miplyffa","indication":"miplyffa_npc","title":"Miplyffa CHMP re-examination outcome + possible EC decision (after Jul 24 2026 negative opinion; timing not guided)","type":"regulatory","binary":true,"fail_pos":75,"fail_apr":88,"success_pos":95,"success_apr":96,"_source":"EMA centralized procedure timeline","_confidence":"medium","failTP":13.3318669,"successTP":13.3318669,"baseTP":13.3318669,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"FY 2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"kp1077","indication":"kp1077_narcolepsy","title":"RESOLVED 2026-03-16 (divested): KP1077 Phase 3 narcolepsy readout (label expansion) -- KP1077 sold to Commave with the SDX portfolio; no longer a Zevra readout","type":"phase3_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":35,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":80,"success_apr":88,"_source":"Zevra pipeline","_confidence":"medium","_outcome":"unknown","_outcomeRationale":"Asset divested to Commave Mar 16 2026 -- the readout is no longer a Zevra event","failTP":13.3318669,"successTP":14.2921853,"baseTP":13.3318669,"swingPct":7,"successMove":7,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":0,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":88.2,"lenses":{"comparable":9.98,"eeRel":1.1695,"peRel":2.5198},"readouts":[{"a":"kp1077","ind":"kp1077_narcolepsy","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"cns.sleep.narcolepsy","endpoint":"mwt_latency_change_min","unit":"min","src":"class","med":7.70930756,"lo":-5,"hi":29.9877597,"pBeatBest":0.057,"bestDrug":"oveporexton (TAK-861)","bestValue":26}]},"ZYDUSLIFE":{"name":"Zydus Lifesciences Ltd.","subtitle":"Indian pharma; US generics + innovative pipeline | FY25 INR 230B / ~$2.7B (+18%) | Saroglitazar PBC NDA -- FDA Priority Review, PDUFA Nov 27 2026 | Desidustat anemia + Mirum NDA partnership","currency":"INR","country":"IN","region":"ASIA.IN","archetype":"generics_biosimilars","private":false,"sharesOut":1010,"netCashLocal":29400,"cashPS":29.1089,"tps":{"mega_bear":613.17,"bear":852.88,"base":1115.06,"bull":1626.72,"psychedelic_bull":2491.8},"weightedTP":1160.46,"meta":{"areas":["cns.psychiatry.adhd","cns","cns.psychiatry","cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","cardio_metabolic","cardio_metabolic.hypertension","cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","cardio_metabolic.lipids","cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","cardio_metabolic.diabetes","cns.psychiatry.depression.general","cns.psychiatry.depression","cns.psychiatry.anxiety","cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","cns.psychiatry.bipolar","cns.epilepsy.focal","cns.epilepsy","cns.epilepsy.generalized","cns.pain.migraine","cns.pain","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory","respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","gastro_hepatology","gastro_hepatology.luminal","_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_us_generics_other","_established_products","_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_india_other","_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_consumer_other","_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_em_eu_other","gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","gastro_hepatology.liver","gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","nephrology.ckd.anemia","nephrology","nephrology.ckd","cns.neurodegeneration.als","cns.neurodegeneration"],"modalities":["small_molecule.gpcr.amphetamine_prodrug","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr","_diversified.branded.heritage","_diversified","_diversified.branded","small_molecule.gpcr.ppar_agonist","small_molecule.enzyme.hif_phi","small_molecule.enzyme","small_molecule.enzyme.nlrp3"],"focus":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":77},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":38},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":24},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":20},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":10},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":7},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":7},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_consumer_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_em_eu_other","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":78},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":39},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":25},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":21},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":21},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":17},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":17},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":12},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":11},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":8},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":8},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":6},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":6},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":4},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":3},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":3},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":3},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":2},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":2},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":2},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":2},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":2},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":1},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":1},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_consumer_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_em_eu_other","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"cns.psychiatry.adhd","purity":116},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.pbc","purity":69},{"area":"cns.psychiatry","purity":58},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver","purity":39},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","purity":8},{"area":"nephrology.ckd.anemia","purity":6},{"area":"nephrology.ckd","purity":3},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension.essential","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.hypertension","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids.ldl_cv_risk","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.lipids","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes.t2d","purity":0},{"area":"cardio_metabolic.diabetes","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression.general","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.depression","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.anxiety","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.schizophrenia","purity":0},{"area":"cns.psychiatry.bipolar","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.focal","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy","purity":0},{"area":"cns.epilepsy.generalized","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain.migraine","purity":0},{"area":"cns.pain","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":0},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.asthma_severe","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal.gerd_peptic","purity":0},{"area":"gastro_hepatology.luminal","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_us_generics_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_india_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_consumer_other","purity":0},{"area":"_established_products.zyduslife_zydus_em_eu_other","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration.als","purity":0},{"area":"cns.neurodegeneration","purity":0}],"phase":"commercial","rare":true,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":1,"rarePurityWtd":1,"optionality":2,"totalTAM":820.51,"totalWTD":803.137174},"catalysts":[{"date":"Nov 2026","dateSort":"2026-11-27","asset":"saroglitazar","indication":"pbc","title":"Saroglitazar PBC PDUFA action date (FDA Priority Review granted May 28 2026; Orphan + Fast Track); US launch targeted Mar 2027","type":"pdufa","fail_pos":55,"fail_apr":55,"success_pos":99,"success_apr":99,"failTP":1159.92715,"successTP":1160.83818,"baseTP":1160.45908,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":88,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0},{"date":"2026-2027","dateSort":"2027-06-30","asset":"saroglitazar","indication":"mash","title":"Saroglitazar MASH Ph2b biopsy readout","type":"phase2_data","binary":true,"fail_pos":15,"fail_apr":60,"success_pos":50,"success_apr":85,"_source":"Zydus pipeline","_confidence":"low","failTP":1160.40701,"successTP":1160.49364,"baseTP":1160.45908,"swingPct":0,"successMove":0,"failMove":0,"yourPoS":40,"expectedReturn":0,"daysOut":null,"materiality":0}],"salesM2025":2849,"lenses":{"comparable":834.34,"eeRel":0.7419,"peRel":1.2212},"readouts":[{"a":"saroglitazar","ind":"mash","ds":"2027-06-30","area":"gastro_hepatology.liver.mash","endpoint":"fibrosis_improvement_pct","unit":"%","src":"class","med":29.0674459,"lo":4.01770454,"hi":54.3718074,"pBeatBest":0.1224,"bestDrug":"lanifibranor 1200mg","bestValue":45}]},"ZYME":{"name":"Zymeworks","subtitle":"Ziihera (zanidatamab) HER2 bispecific royalties (BTC + 1L HER2+ GEA, FDA Aug 25 26) + Yupelri 35% US profit share from Theravance (closed Sep 23 26)","currency":"USD","country":"CA","region":"AMERICAS.CA","archetype":"royalty","private":false,"sharesOut":71,"netCashLocal":-149.1,"cashPS":-2.1,"tps":{"mega_bear":20.98,"bear":29.65,"base":41.66,"bull":57.02,"psychedelic_bull":71.82},"weightedTP":40.5,"meta":{"areas":["oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","oncology","oncology.gi","oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","oncology.gi.gastric","respiratory.inflammatory.copd","respiratory","respiratory.inflammatory"],"modalities":["biologic.antibody.bispecific.her2_her2","biologic","biologic.antibody","biologic.antibody.bispecific","small_molecule.gpcr.lama","small_molecule","small_molecule.gpcr"],"focus":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":181},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":4}],"focusWtd":[{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":181},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":90},{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":11},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":10},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":4},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":4}],"focusSOM":[{"area":"oncology.gi.cholangiocarcinoma","purity":115},{"area":"oncology.gi","purity":78},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory.copd","purity":43},{"area":"respiratory.inflammatory","purity":22},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric.her2_pos","purity":21},{"area":"oncology.gi.gastric","purity":21}],"phase":"commercial","rare":false,"pediatric":false,"rarePurity":0,"rarePurityWtd":0,"optionality":0,"totalTAM":27.2016,"totalWTD":27.2016},"catalysts":[{"date":"Aug 25 2026","dateSort":"2026-08-25","asset":"zanidatamab","indication":"zani_gea","title":"REPORTED 2026-08-25: FDA APPROVED Ziihera in 1L HER2+ advanced GEA -- with tislelizumab + chemo (all HER2+) and with chemo alone (IHC 3+); HERIZON-GEA-01 PFS 12.4 vs 8.1 mo (HR~0.63), OS 26.4 vs 19.2 mo","type":"pdufa","binary":true,"fail_pos":60,"fail_apr":70,"success_pos":92,"success_apr":95,"_source":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-zanidatamab-hrii-and-tislelizumab-jsgr-her2-positive-gastric-gastroesophageal-junction","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","_outcomeRationale":"PDUFA resolved SUCCESS: FDA approved Aug 25 2026 (FDA.gov approval notice). zani_gea moved to the approved convention pos=apr=100 across scenarios (matching zani_btc), which is factual, not a forecast. penPct raised 0 -> 35 on 2026-08-26 for consistency with zani_btc, but this does NOT change EV: penPct is only read on the TAM-only path, and zani_gea carries a company_slice, so its SOM ($77.6M) was already live. The approval therefore lands as the pos/apr move to 100 plus prose.","failTP":32.5979312,"successTP":43.7925953,"baseTP":40.4959704,"swingPct":28,"successMove":8,"failMove":-20,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":8,"daysOut":null,"materiality":21},{"date":"Sep 23 2026","dateSort":"2026-09-23","asset":"zanidatamab","indication":"zani_gea","title":"RESOLVED 2026-09-23: Zymeworks acquisition of Theravance Biopharma CLOSED ($17/sh cash + CVR, ~$929M; financed by $350M non-recourse 8.25% 2036 note secured on the US YUPELRI profit share + TBPH ~$360M net cash + ~$219M ZYME cash; ~$100M Trelegy milestone expected Q1 2027)","type":"ma_close","binary":false,"fail_pos":100,"fail_apr":100,"success_pos":100,"success_apr":100,"_source":"https://ir.zymeworks.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zymeworks-acquire-theravance-biopharma-inc","_confidence":"high","_outcome":"success","failTP":37.4958245,"successTP":43.7925953,"baseTP":40.4959704,"swingPct":9,"successMove":5,"failMove":-4,"yourPoS":100,"expectedReturn":5,"daysOut":null,"materiality":13}],"salesM2025":5,"lenses":{"comparable":25.33}}}}
